The Applied Meteorology Unit Past, Present and Future · 2015-10-26 · Ver. 29 Jan 07 13:00 Applied Meteorology Unit 4 History of the AMU • Established Oct 1991 by NASA, USAF,

Applied Meteorology Unit

Francis J. Merceret (NASA/KSC)William H. Bauman III (ENSCO, Inc./AMU)

William P. Roeder (USAF/45WS)Richard A. Lafosse (NWS/JSC/SMG)

David W. Sharp (NWS/MLB)

8 February 2007

The Applied Meteorology UnitPast, Present and Future

Applied Meteorology UnitVer. 29 Jan 07 13:002

Overview

• What’s an AMU?– Purpose– History– How it works

• Technology delivered: a sampler– Forecast tools– Numerical weather prediction– Sensors– Miscellaneous


Purpose of the AMU

• Goal: Improve weather support toSpace Shuttle and America’sspace program

• Method: Bridge the gap betweenresearch and operations

• Technology Functions:– Develop– Evaluate– Tailor– Transition


History of the AMU

• Established Oct 1991 by NASA, USAF, NWS MOU– Co-located with Range Weather Operations– Operated by ENSCO, Inc.

under NASA contract• Nationally recognized process

for tasking by customers• Outstanding performance

– Technical quality reflected in journal articles– Administrative quality reflected in corporate award– Customer satisfaction reflected in direct feed-back plus

personal and group awards


How We Work: Organization

• Operated by ENSCO, Inc. under a competitively awarded contract to NASA/KSC

• Five full-time equivalent ENSCO professionals and one NASA civil servant professional half-time

• All have advanced degrees in meteorology or a related field and several have operational forecast experience

• Co-located with 45th Weather Squadron in the Range Operations Control Center at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station


How We Work: Tasking

• Customer-driven base-fundedformal prioritized tasking– Quasi-annual in-person meeting– Pre-meeting proposals and negotiations– Consensus process cited by

Navy Best Manufacturing Practices Institute– Follow-up teleconferences as required

• Customer-funded project tasking• Customer-requested mission immediate tasking


How We Work: Task Execution

• Customer involvement throughout– Design of the approach to be taken– Determination of the deliverables– Detailed technical reports quarterly– Teleconferences at key decision points– Beta testing and document preview– Training and follow-up after delivery

• Also cited by Navy Best Manufacturing Practices Institute


Example: Anvil Forecast Tool

• Requirement:– Lightning Launch Commit

Criteria– Space Shuttle Flight Rules– Avoid natural and

triggered lightning

• Provided:– Threat corridor:

if thunderstorms form here,their anvils will violate rules

Based on:o Balloon observationo Model forecast

– Timing Rings: time until Launch & Flight Rules violatedBased on wind speed in anvil layer


Example: Microburst Prediction Tool

• Requirement: improve severe wind forecasts

• Provided:– Microburst-Day

Potential IndexDownburst probability

– Wind IndexDownburst maximum gust

– Atmospheric stabilitychart

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

300 310 320 330 340 350 360

Temperature (oK)

Heig

ht (f

eet)

θe Profile

TTS 23ZWINDEX = 46MDPI = 1.02Δ θe = 30.68



Example: Numerical Weather Prediction

• Provided: local data assimilation software– All available data in one

gridded database– Significant improvement

in initialization of local forecast models

• Result:– Forecast improvement for

all applications– Significant improvement

in data visualization

Withradardata

Withoutradardata


Example: Sensor Evaluation

• Requirement: compare data from legacy upper air system with new one– Temperature and relative

humidity differences – Changes in the measures

of atmospheric stability • Provided:

– Documentation of relative humidity and temperature differences vs. altitude

– Evaluation of impact on thunderstorm forecast indices

Average Dual-Sensor Profiles at CCAFSJanuary, February & April 2002

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

0 20 40 60 80 100Relative Humidity (%)

Pres

sure

(mb)

MSSAMPS


a


Example: Severe Weather Event

• Requirement: evaluate why tornadoes and downbursts of 13 Aug 96 were poorly forecast– ‘Mission Immediate’ tasking– Damage to many cars, several

buildings, and one aircraft

• Provided:– In-depth case study– Several training briefings


Example: Shuttle Optical Imaging

• Requirement:– CAIB Report: NASA

needs “three useful”camera views of the Shuttle during launch

• Providing:– Statistical model of cloud

field– Forecast decision aid for

the Space Shuttle Launch Weather Officer?

North Side Camera Network (Pre-Upgrade)1, 2, and 3 Simultaneous Views

Cloud Base 8000': Thickness 500'

0

20

40

60

80

100

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0Fractional Cloud Coverage

% o

f Tim

e in

Asc

ent-t

o-SR

BS

View

able

1 View

2 View s

3 View sLimit of MediumRange Cameras

Clear Overcast

North Side Camera Network (Post-Upgrade)1, 2, and 3 Simultaneous Views

Cloud Base 8000': Thickness 500'

0

20

40

60

80

100

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0

Fractional Cloud Coverage

% o

f Tim

e of

Asc

ent-t

o-S

RBS

V

iew

able

Vehicle BelowCloud Base

1 View

2 View s

3 View s


Conclusion

The AMU is a proven method to develop and transition technology to America’s space program

http://science.ksc.nasa.gov/amu


The Challenge of the Future

• From FY1992 through FY2006, AMU base funding, about $750K/year, was 100% Shuttle supplied

• In FY06 and FY07, the Launch Services Program (LSP, NASA’s ELV program) provided $50K of the $800K annual base funding

• In FY08, an additional $50K is being requested from LSP• Unless the Constellation Program and LSP can negotiate

an agreement to pick up the full cost of the AMU between them, the AMU will cease operation at the end of FY 2010

Documents

The Applied Meteorology Unit Past, Present and Future · 2015-10-26 · Ver. 29 Jan 07 13:00 Applied Meteorology Unit 4 History of the AMU • Established Oct 1991 by NASA, USAF,