The Albanian SUT, the new tool for higher reliability of

National Accounts

Support for the Alignment of

Albanian Statistics with EU standards

Ledjon Shahini

20 February 2014

Objectives of Activity A2

Output

Imports;

Trade and transport; margins;

Net product taxes;

ITTIntermediateConsumption

FD

Household consumption;

Government consumption;

Exports;

Gross fixed capital formation;

Changes in inventories;

VA

Compensation of employees;

Production taxes;

Operating surplus;

Supply Table Use TableActivities (NACE)Activities (NACE)

Pro

duct

s (C

PA

)

Pro

duct

s (C

PA

)

Background: SUT

Results of Activity A2

Balanced Supply Use Table at current prices for 2009 and 2008 at A60*P60, A25*P25 and A13*P13

Not balanced Supply Use Table at constant prices for 2009 at A60*P60

Symmetric Input-Output Tables for 2009 at 25*25

Detailed methodological report

A list of improvements to be done

A,B C D E F G H I1 I2 J K L,M,N O,P Total Imports Taxes TrdM TrpM Total

A,B 239,726 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 318 0 240,045 34,072 4,906 32,596 14,323 325,942

C 0 29,191 22 0 679 134 0 7 0 0 0 0 0 30,034 7,384 5,908 10,149 1,478 54,953

D 35,267 91 266,959 10,061 3,314 2,487 905 691 0 0 442 0 0 320,217 429,822 111,633 224,250 15,760 1,101,681

E 0 0 0 52,101 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 67 25 52,193 13,227 4,697 18,643 387 89,146

F 0 1,455 1,327 0 465,973 1,048 2,142 1,413 0 0 94 0 1,049 474,501 29,071 11,253 0 0 514,825

G 0 113 949 19 6,597 263,202 1,218 4,043 2 0 388 0 250 276,780 0 15,659 -285,638 0 6,801

H 0 0 27 0 36 266 72,590 0 0 0 0 0 6 72,926 0 387 0 0 73,313

I1 0 0 183 35 357 298 88 158,526 0 0 1 325 0 159,813 76,136 548 0 -31,947 204,550

I2 0 0 2 0 618 30 0 0 67,873 0 123 0 0 68,646 4,179 2,331 0 0 75,156

J 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 61,300 0 0 0 61,300 9,134 343 0 0 70,777

K 0 0 82 0 21 207 0 244 0 0 175,408 227 49 176,238 8,117 1,066 0 0 185,421

L,M,N 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 131,647 0 131,647 0 248 0 0 131,895

O,P 0 0 317 0 268 47 320 161 0 0 0 124 71,581 72,818 3,745 3,929 0 0 80,492

Total 274,993 30,850 269,867 62,215 477,863 267,720 77,263 165,085 67,876 61,300 176,456 132,709 72,961 2,137,158 614,885 162,908 0 0 2,914,952

Results: Supply table 2009

A,B C D E F G H I1 I2 J K L,M,N O,P Total Export H Con G GFCF Inv TotalA,B 39,211 1,310 22,415 0 2,138 1,446 9,657 260 39 0 1,116 1,466 730 79,788 79,800 166,087 327 -50 -10 325,942C 54 972 11,832 54 9,061 3,702 1,659 10,636 1,325 0 200 0 601 40,097 23,201 194 0 0 -8,539 54,953D 36,045 13,721 104,007 23,205 133,886 37,049 17,918 42,292 18,373 0 35,686 697 2,928 465,807 171,450 402,642 377 65,708 -4,305 1,101,680E 875 682 8,973 779 3,208 5,476 3,131 4,409 1,727 1,556 3,067 3,828 1,702 39,413 20,345 30,878 260 0 -1,750 89,146F 855 2,046 11,127 4,582 92,756 13,729 6,923 18,792 1,858 0 13,676 0 971 167,314 904 1,839 0 355,455 -10,688 514,825G 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 497 0 0 0 0 0 497 0 6,304 0 0 0 6,801H 1,976 451 7,511 865 20,712 2,048 1,328 3,309 562 236 4,312 769 906 44,984 0 28,329 0 0 0 73,313I1 1,290 1,031 6,844 11,075 9,954 8,406 868 19,105 2,438 0 3,450 1,829 785 67,075 18,504 118,638 333 0 0 204,550I2 1,303 363 6,875 595 12,909 6,277 1,458 3,401 1,044 163 4,171 529 709 39,798 13,060 22,298 0 0 0 75,156J 401 1,033 6,816 4,745 6,133 18,056 1,012 2,598 464 11,013 688 899 2,922 56,780 1,050 12,948 0 0 0 70,777K 1,165 216 14,259 63 47,757 8,316 1,566 5,055 1,104 17 14,850 649 422 95,438 8,610 80,922 227 223 0 185,420L,M,N 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 941 659 1,600 0 13,930 116,365 0 0 131,895O,P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 23,524 29,867 53,391 1,649 24,213 1,242 0 0 80,495Total 83,176 21,826 200,659 45,964 338,514 104,506 45,518 110,355 28,936 12,985 81,215 35,131 43,200 1,151,983 338,572 909,223 119,129 421,337 -25,292 2,914,952

Results: Use table 2009

SUTCP: GDP(O &E)

A Agriculture, hunting and forestry 180,217 185,295 189,945 105.4 102.8 102.5B Fishing 1,845 1,923 1,872 101.5 104.2 97.4C Mining and quarrying 10,545 8,744 9,024 85.6 82.9 103.2D Manufacturiong 73,316 67,650 69,208 94.4 92.3 102.3E Electricity and water supply 2,583 11,337 16,252 629.2 438.9 143.4F Construction 136,660 141,151 139,350 102.0 103.3 98.7G Trade 160,531 145,137 163,214 101.7 90.4 112.5H Hotel and restaurants 30,117 30,104 31,745 105.4 100.0 105.5I Transport, storage and communication 90,376 121,304 93,670 103.6 134.2 77.2J Financial activities 46,507 49,588 48,315 103.9 106.6 97.4K Real estate and business activities 86,971 93,684 95,241 109.5 107.7 101.7

LPublic administration and defence, compulsory social security 39,984 40,181 44,121 110.3 100.5 109.8

M Education 31,468 29,540 34,687 110.2 93.9 117.4N Health 15,164 16,320 18,770 123.8 107.6 115.0

OOther community, social and personal service activities 26,642 28,636 29,761 111.7 107.5 103.9

Taxes, net 156,368 153,727 162,908 104.2 98.3 106.0GDP(O) 1,089,293 1,124,322 1,148,083 105.4 103.2 102.1

Imports 610,038 612,454 614,885 100.8 100.4 100.4IC 1,068,227 1,142,040 1,151,983 107.8 106.9 100.9Exports 325,122 333,899 337,978 104.0 102.7 101.2HH Consumption 897,401 890,797 909,802 101.4 99.3 102.1Goverment Consumption 110,612 108,309 119,130 107.7 97.9 110.0GFCF 396,741 420,624 421,261 106.2 106.0 100.2Inventories -30,545 -24,900 -25,202 82.5 81.5 101.2GDP(E) 1,089,293 1,116,275 1,148,084 105.4 102.5 102.8

Values Implicit indexes

SUT 2008SUTCP

2009SUT 2009 Value Volume Price

Improvements recommended

Improvement of output and IC breakdown by products;

Compile IC breakdown for activities currently missing (NIPSH, private health and education, transport and insurance);

Improve trade and transport margins by product;

Improve product breakdown for final demand categories (government consumption, travel services);

Compile changes of inventory by products;

Process detailed information on exports and imports of services;

Improve the deflators used for the SUT at constant prices;

Improvements done: Production matrix

Products CPA 4 and 6

digit

Activities Nace Rev 1.1 (2 digit)

Total1 2 3 … j … n

1 p11 p12 p13 … p1j … p1n p1.

2 p21 p22 p23 … p2j … p2n p2.

3 p31 p32 p33 … p3j … p3n p3.

… … … … … … … …

i pi1 pi2 pi3 … pij … pin pi.

… … … … … … … …

m pm1 pm2 pm3 … pmj … pmn pm.

Totale p.1 p.2 p.3 … p.j … p.n p..

m >500 n=60

Imports

Data for imports of goods and services

are taken from customs (reconciled with

foreing trade sector) and BoP.

Imported goods are treated at CN 8 digit

code and Imported services are treated at

CPA 2 and 4 digit (depends by

specification given).

For year 2010 there are 6,748 goods

products and 22 services products

Imports

Products CN code Total

1 p1.

2 p2.

3 p3.

… …

i pi.

… …

m pm.

Total p..

Trade & Transport MarginTrade Margin

•To estimate trade margin, trade has been divided in Nace rev.1.1 at 2

digit groups (50, 51, 52).

•For 50 and 52 data are taken from quarterly surveys on trade enterprises

and are at Coicop 4 digit level.

• For 51 we don’t have data from quarterly surveys on enterprises.

Structure of wholesale trade margin is built using sales and purchases

books of enterprises (taken from Tax Authority).

Trade & Transport Margin

Products Total

1 p1.

2 p2.

3 p3.

… …

i pi.

… …

m pm.

Total p..

Transport Margin

• For transport margin we don’t have a specific survey. To distribute

transport margin in products is used the structure of expenditure

done for transport from enterprises.

• In this case is assumed that the product transported is the same as the

main activity of enterprises.

Taxes

Taxes on imports are treated at CN 8 digit code

Taxes on domestic production are treated at CPA 4 digit.

Products Taxes on imports Taxes on Domestic production

Total Excises Duty VAT Excises

Specific Taxes on products

VAT

1 E1. D1. V1. E1. S1. V1. T1.

2 E2. D2. V2. E2. S2. V2. T2.

3 E3. D3. V3. E3. S3. V3. T3.

… … … … … … … …

i Ei. Di. Vi. Ei. Si. Vi. Ti.

… … … … … … … …

m Em. Dm. Vm. En. Sn. Vn. Tm.

Total E. D.. V.. E. S.. V.. T..

Intermediate Consumption matrix

Products CPA 2 digit

Activities Nace Rev 1.1 (2 digit)

Total1 2 3 … j … n

1 p11 p12 p13 … p1j … p1n p1.

2 p21 p22 p23 … p2j … p2n p2.

3 p31 p32 p33 … p3j … p3n p3.

… … … … … … … …

i pi1 pi2 pi3 … pij … pin pi.

… … … … … … … …

m pm1 pm2 pm3 … pmj … pmn pm.

Totale p.1 p.2 p.3 … p.j … p.n p..

• Data for distribution of IC are

taken from SBS and Financial

Statements.

• Note: In the SBS of 2013 the cost

structure is more detailed, but it

covers only industries.

m=60 & n=60

Final Demand matrixes

Exports: Exported goods are at CN 8 digit code and

exported services are at CPA 2 and 4 digit (depends by

specification).

ExportsProducts CN code Total

1 p1.

2 p2.

… …

i pi.

… …

m pm.

Total p..

Household Consumption: To estimate Household

Consumption the data are taken from HBS at most detailed

level (coicop 6 digit, more than 370 products) with GDP (E)

adjustments.

COICOP 6 digit Total

1 p1.

2 p2.

… …

i pi.

… …

m pm.

Total p..

Government: For Government consumption data are taken

from NA D unit responsible for general government sector.

CPA 2 digit Total

1 p1.

2 p2.

… …

i pi.

… …

m pm.

Total p..

Final Demand matrixes (cont…)

Gross Fix Capital Formation

• The information for GFCF is at the level

shown in the table.

• For machinery and equipment we use the

data from imports to distribute et product

level.

GFCF Total Agriculture: p1. Livestock p2.

Orchards & Vineyards p3. Forestry …

Geological Prospecting … Construction …

Machinery and equipments pi. Transport means …

Software & Databases pm. Total p..

Changes in inventory

• Data for changes in inventory are taken

from Financial Statements and SBS.

• For each of the categories is used an

alternative approach to distinguish by

products level.

Changes in inventory

In (000) lek

Inventary Beginning of Year

End of Year

1 Row Materials  

2 Work in process    

3 Finished goods    

4 Goods for resale    

6 Total    

Analyzes

Discrepancy < 5% - automatic balances

1 2 . . i . . 60

1 2 . . i . . 60

1 1

2 2

…. ….

…. ….

…. ….

i i

…. ….

…. ….

60 60

Total Total

Govern

GFCF

Inv

Total

Products

Products

Export

HH Cons

Use

IndustryTotal

Supply

Total

IndustryTotal

Imports

Taxes

Trade

M

Trans

M

V V

5% < Discrepancy < 10% - manual balances

Discrepancy > 10% - back and check all data

SUT constant prices

For all products (m=518) of output and IC

(m=60) a specific deflator is used related as

much as possible with the products:

Some of the deflator used are:

• specific CPI

• specific PPI

• CCI

• Other indices

Products CPA 4 and

6 digit Output Deflator

Output Constant

1 p1. I1. pc1.

2 p2. I2. pc2.

3 p3. I3. pc3.

… … … …

i pi. Ii. pci.

… … … …

m pm. Im. pcm.

Totale p..   p..

Products CPA 2 digit

IC DeflatorIC

Constant

1 p1. I1. pc1.

2 p2. I2. pc2.

3 p3. I3. pc3.

… … … …

i pi. Ii. pci.

… … … …

m pm. Im. pcm.

Totale p..   p..

The production and IC matrix

SUT constant prices (cont…)

Imports:

• For most of products is used specified UVI and for other adjusted UVI.

• For services is used respective HICP

• ex. for year 2010 there are 6,747 goods imported and 27 services. For 2117 (which cover 83 % of total imports) is used specific UVI and for the rest is used adjusted UVI.

ImportsProducts CN code

Total Current

UVITotal

Constant

1 p1. UVI1. pc1.

2 p2. UVI2. pc2.

3 p3. UVI3. pc3.

… … … …

i pi. UVIi. pci.

… … … …

m pm. UVIm. pcm.

Total p.. p.. p..

Exports:

• For goods is used Export price Indexes.

• In the cases where isn’t a specific index is used a grouped index

• For services is used respective CPI

Exports

Products CN code

Total Current

EPITotal

Constant

1 p1. EPI1. pc1.

2 p2. EPI2. pc2.

3 p3. EPI3. pc3.

… … … …

i pi. EPIi. pci.

… … … …

m pm. EPIm. pcm.

Total p.. p.. p..

Imports and Exports

Household

To estimate Household Consumption in

constant prices for each of products is used

CPI at COICOP 4 digit.

Results are reconciled with GDP (E).

COICOP 6 digit

Value DeflatorConstant Values

1 p1. I1. pc1.

2 p2. I2. pc2.

3 p3. I3. pc3.

… … … …

i pi. Ii. pci.

… … … …

m pm. Im. pcm.

Totale p..   p..

Government

To estimate Government Consumption in constant

prices is used an adjusted deflator from output

matrix at CPA 2 digit level.

CPA 2 digit

Value DeflatorConstant Values

1 p1. I1. pc1.

2 p2. I2. pc2.

3 p3. I3. pc3.

… … … …

i pi. Ii. pci.

… … … …

m pm. Im. pcm.

Totale p..   p..

SUT constant prices (cont…)

Household & Government Consumption in Constant Prices

Gross Fix Capital Formation

• For most part of groups are used

adjusted deflator from output matrix at

CPA 2 digit level.

GFCF Value DeflatorConstant Values

Agriculture: p1. I1. pc1.

Livestock p2. I2. pc2.

Orchards & Vineyards p3. I3. pc3.

Forestry … … … Geological Prospecting … … …

Construction … … … Machinery and

equipments pi. Ii. pci.

Transport means … … …

Software & Databases pm. Im. pcm.

Total p..   p..

• For machinery and equipment we use

the data from imports to distribute et

product detailed level and respective

UVI as deflator.

SUT constant prices (cont…)

m n, this means when a new product is in period t the tax is considered as volume effects and

if a product disperse in period t it means that it is price effect.

Products

Taxes in Constant

CN list for period t (1)

CIF Value at Constant at

constant prices for

period t (2)

VAT at period t (3)CN list for period

t-1(4)CIF Value for period t-1 (5)

VAT for period t-1

(6)

VAT ratio for period t-1 (7)=(6)/(5)

VAT in constant for period t (8)=(7)*(2)

1 p1. Vp1.,t p1.,t p1.

Vp1.,t-1 p1. ,t-1 p1,t-1./Vp1,t-1. p1,t-1./Vp1,t-1. *

Vp1.,t

2 p2. Vp2.,t p2.,t p2.

Vp2.,t-1 p2. ,t-1 p2,t-1./Vp2. ,t-1 p2,t-1./Vp2. ,t-1

*Vp2.,t

3 p3. Vp3.,t p3.,t p3.

Vp3.,t-1 p3. ,t-1 p3,t-1./Vp3,t-1. p3,t-1./Vp3,t-

1.*Vp3.,t

… … … … … … … … … …

i pi. Vpi.,t pi.,t pi.

Vpi.,t-1 pi. ,t-1 pi. ,t-1/Vpi,t-1. pi. ,t-1/Vpi,t-1.*Vpi.,t

… … … … … … … … … …

k pm. Vpm,,t pm,,t. pn.

Vpn,t-1. pn. ,t-1 pn. ,t-1/Vpn,t-1. pn. ,t-1/Vpn,t-

1.*Vpm,,t

Total p.. p.. p.. p.. p.. p.. p.. p..

The same procedure is done for all taxes, subsidies and margins only that instead of Cif

value are correspondent values.

Taxes in Constant Prices

SUT constant prices (cont…)

Analyzes of SUT in constant prices

Discrepancies in constant prices can be effected from not well specified deflator or because of big

changes on structures between two linked years

1 2 . . i . . 60

1 2 . . i . . 60

1 1

2 2

…. ….

…. ….

…. ….

i i

…. ….

…. ….

60 60

Total Total

Govern

GFCF

Inv

Total

Products

Products

Export

HH Cons

Use

IndustryTotal

Supply

Total

IndustryTotal

Imports

Taxes

Trade

M

Trans

M

V V

Future work

• Set up regular annual compilation of Supply Use Table

• at current prices

• at constant prices of previous year

Compilation of Supply Use Tables allow:

• Comparisons of different methods of GDP

• Double deflating method of GDP by production approach

• Increase quality of National Accounts

THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!