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The A to C of Transition . PEAK OIL. THE LONG EMERGENCY. GLOBAL WARMING. ECONOMIC INSTABILITY. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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The A to Cof Transition
PEAK OIL
GLOBALWARMING
ECONOMIC INSTABILITY
THE LONG EMERGENCY
“The Long Emergency is an opportunity to pause, to think through our present course, and to adjust to a saner path for the future. We had best face facts: we really have no choice. The Long Emergency is a horrible
predicament. It is also a wonderful opportunity to do a lot better. Let’s not
squander this moment.”
—Albert Bates (paraphrased)The Post Petroleum Survival Guide and Cookbook
“Inherent within the challenges of peak oil and climate change is an extraordinary
opportunity to reinvent, rethink and rebuild the world around us.”
—Rob HopkinsThe Transition Handbook
Future Energy Scenarios
“The real issue of our age is how we make a graceful and ethical descent.”
David HolmgrenPermaculture: Principles and Pathways
Beyond Sustainability
The challenge of global climate change makes a shift away from fossil fuels necessary for planetary survival.
The impending peak in oil and gas production means that the transition is inevitable.
Our only choice is whether to proactively undertake the transition now—or later.
The Need: Energy Transition
“I believe that a lower-energy, more localized future, in which we move from being
consumers to being producer/consumers, where food, energy and other essentials are
locally produced, local economies are strengthened and we have learned to live more within our means is a step towards something extraordinary, not a step away from something inherently irreplaceable.”
—Rob HopkinsThe Transition Handbook
Resilient communities—self-reliant for the greatest possible number of their needs—will be infinitely better
prepared than those who are dependent on globalized systems for food, energy, transportation, health,
and housing.
Local production of food, energy and goods Local development of currency, government
and culture Reducing consumption while improving
environmental and social conditions Developing an exemplary community that
can be a working model for other communities when the effects of energy decline become more intense
Relocalization
“The most radical thing you can do
is stay home.”—Gary Snyder
Percentage of food consumed locally that was produced within a given radius
Ratio of car parking space to productive land use
Degree of engagement in practical relocalization work by local community
Amount of traffic on local roads
Number of businesses owned by local people
Percentage of local trade carried out in local currency
Proportion of the community employed locally
Percentage of essential goods manufactured within a given radius
Percentage of local building materials used in new housing developments
Number of 16-year-olds able to grow 10 different varieties of vegetables to a given degree of basic competency
Percentage of medicines prescribed locally that have been produced within a given radius
Resilience Indicators
“…I have become fascinated by how we apply these principles to whole towns, whole
settlements, and in particular, to how we design this transition in such a way that
people will embrace it as a common journey, as a collective adventure, as something
positive… How can we design descent pathways which make people feel alive, positive and included in this process of societal transformation?”
—Rob Hopkins
“The future with less oil could be preferable to the present, if we are able to engage with
enough imagination and creativity sufficiently in advance of the peak…”
—Rob Hopkins
“It takes a lot of cheap energy to maintain the levels of social inequality we see today, the
levels of obesity, the record levels of indebtedness, the high levels of car use and alienating urban landscapes. Only a culture
awash with cheap oil could become de-skilled on the monumental scale we have.”
—Rob Hopkins
…A creative, engaging, playful process, wherein we support our communities through the loss of the familiar and inspire and create
a new lower energy infrastructure which is ultimately an improvement on the present.
What is Transition?
“Transition is a replicable strategy for harnessing the talent, vision,
and goodwill of ordinary people.”
—Richard Heinberg
What is Transition?
For all those aspects of life that this community needs to sustain itself and thrive, how do we: dramatically reduce carbon emissions (in
response to climate change); significantly increase resilience (in response
to peak oil); greatly strengthen our local economy (in
response to economic instability)?
The Key Question
Life with less energy is inevitable, and it is better to plan for it than be taken by surprise.
We have lost the resilience to be able to cope with energy shocks.
We have to act for ourselves and we have to act now.
By unleashing the collective genius of the community we can design ways of living that are more enriching, satisfying and connected.
Transition Recognitions
Care of the Earth—rebuild natural capital
Care of People—look after self, kin and community
Fair Share—set limits to consumption and reproduction, and redistribute surplus
Permaculture Ethics
Our vision is a future where life is more socially connected, more meaningful and satisfying, more sustainable, and more equitable in a greater community of relocalized communities…
Where production and consumption occur closer to home…
Where long and fragile supply chains—now vulnerable to surges in oil prices and economic volatility—have been replaced by interconnected local networks…
Where the total amount of energy consumed by businesses and citizens is dramatically less than current unsustainable levels…
Visioning a positive future
Set up an initiating group
Raise awareness Lay the foundations
(partnering) Organize a Great
Unleashing Form groups Use Open Space
Technology Develop visible,
practical projects
Facilitate the Great Reskilling
Build bridges to local government
Honor and engage the elders
Create an Energy Descent Action Plan (EDAP)
Let it go where it wants to go
Pathways to Transition
Form an Initiating Group… ..and design its evolution from the outset!
Raise Awareness
Lay the Foundations
Collaborate where possible
Co-operation, not competition
Organize a Great Unleashing
“Maybe they will tell stories about what happened in Totnes. Maybe this evening will be something that is the beginning of one of those stories”.
Dr Chris Johnstone – TTT Unleashing Sept ’06.
Form Working Groups
Up and RunningArts / Food / Energy / Economics / Liaison with Local Government / Heart and Soul – the psychology of change / Medicine and Health /Housing / Education / Transport
Use Open Space Technology
Develop Visible, Practical Projects
“Totnes, the Nut Tree Capital of Britain”. Tree Planting, January 2007
Local Food Directory
Local Currency
Transition Tales
Facilitate the Great ReskillingSkilling Up for PowerdownPeak Oil / Climate Change, Permaculture Principles, Food, Energy, Building and Housing, Woodlands, Water, Waste, Economics, The Psychology of Change, Energy Descent Planning…
Build a Bridge to Local Government• Cultivate positive and
productive relationships.
• You may be pushing against an open door!
• Government should support, not drive.
• Collaborate on community plan.
Honor and Engage the Elders
Create an Energy Descent Action Plan
Start with a vision and then backcast
Incorporate Transition Tales
Base it on current planning documents
“Your EDAP should feel like a holiday brochure, presenting a localized, low-energy world in such an enticing way that anyone reading it will feel their life utterly bereft if they don’t dedicate the rest of their lives
towards its realization.” —Rob Hopkins
Let It Go Where It Wants to Go
Focus on the questions Unleash the collective
genius of the community Any sense of control is
illusory
Deeply rooted in Permaculture principles and ethics Cultivates positive visioning Provides training in the practical skills needed for a post-
oil society Recognizes the psychological side of the process of
change Encourages inclusiveness, openness to peer-to-peer
feedback Promotes non-hierarchical, distributed decision-making Enables sharing and networking Balances inner/outer, left/right brain, masculine/feminine,
young/old Provides a replicable model, a clear pathway Engages whole communities in the process Scalable and adaptable to particular communities Spreads like wildfire!
Why the Transition model works
Transition is a social experiment on a massive scale; we don’t know if this will work.
If we wait for the governments, it’ll be too little, too late.
If we act as individuals, it’ll be too little. But if we act as communities, it might be
just enough, just in time.
Cheerful Disclaimer
The Transition movement is the result of real work undertaken in the real world with
community engagement at its heart. There’s not an ivory tower in sight, no
professors in musty oak-paneled studies churning out erudite papers, no slavish adherence to a model carved in stone.
Cheerful Disclaimer
This work, just like the Transition model, is brought to you by people who are actively
engaged in Transition in a community—people who are learning by doing and
learning all the time, people who understand that we can’t sit back and wait for someone
else to do the work. People like you, perhaps…
Cheerful Disclaimer