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Total GB sample: n=2716
Weighted by age, gender, class, region, and political behaviour
Contact: [email protected]
@jamesdmorris
The 21 things you need to know to
understand why Britain voted Leave
Findings from poll conducted for the TUC
Fieldwork took place Friday 24th- Mon 27th June
45
44
43
28
28
27
22
22
18
17
16
15
6
0 20 40 60 80
Economy - any
Controlling our laws
Immigration
UK influence in world
Security and Terrorism
Jobs
Public services
Pride in Britain
Investment
Workers' rights
Prices
Equality
The environment
Which THREE of the following were most important in helping you decide which way to vote?
72
10
11
42
29
41
14
7
34
30
30
25
10
0 20 40 60 80
Voters Remain
20
75
72
16
27
14
30
36
4
6
4
5
3
0 20 40 60 80
Leave
Voted Total n=2216; Voted Remain n=1045; Voted Leave n=1136
28% of Leave
voters did not
say
immigration
was a top 3
issue
Overall, 40% said immigration was a key issue – level w/
sovereignty and economy
1) About immigration, but not all about immigration
2) The result was in part a verdict on the establishment
41
58 61
37
0
20
40
60
80
Remain Leave Remain Leave
Politicians, business leaders and other members of
‘the Establishment’ in Britain have let most ordinary
people down.
Politicians and business leaders make mistakes, but
most contribute positively to Britain.
Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?
Let ordinary people down (62%) Most contribute positively (25%)
• The 62% of voters who think the establishment let ordinary people down voted to
leave 58 to 41
• Those who think the establishment contribute positively, voted Remain 61:37
Let ordinary people down n=1382; Most contribute positively n=551
3) Leave had a stronger frame going into the campaign,
and amplified their lead as it went on Please indicate whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your views,
even if neither is exactly right.
28 26
45 40
37 34
49 49
No risk Take control No risk Take control
First statement much closer First statement somewhat closer
The most important thing at this referendum is making sure we don't risk Britain's
economy, security and influence in the world.
The most important thing at this referendum is getting control of Britain's borders,
laws and economy.
June March
March very likely voters n=1017; June voted n=2216
4) Voters did think Remain best for prices, but this
wasn’t a retail vote. Leave won key issues by a distance.
(X AXIS) Which THREE of the following were most important in helping you decide which way to vote?
(Y AXIS) Putting aside how you voted in the referendum, do you think leaving the EU or staying in the EU would
be better for each of the following issues? (% answering better to Remain)
Voters
Immigration
Control of our laws
UK influence in world
Jobs
Security and Terrorism
Public services
Pride in Britain
Workers' rights Investment
Prices
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
0 10 20 30 40 50
To
tal n
et
be
tte
r to
RE
MA
IN f
or
iss
ue
% saying issue important to their vote
Voted n=2216
5) A Leave vote was overwhelmingly a vote of optimism.
Remain voters more fearful
33
47
63
50
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Leave votersRemain voters
Feel WORRIED about what will happen Feel POSITIVE about benefits
Which of the following best explains why you voted for the UK to LEAVE/REMAIN a member of the European
Union?
Voted Remain n=1045; Voted Leave n=1136
6) Class and age tell the story – but don’t confuse
‘young’ with ‘young middle class’
Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?
71
29
53 46 51 46
33
66
43
56
32
67
0
20
40
60
80
Remain Leave Remain Leave Remain Leave Remain Leave Remain Leave Remain Leave
18-34 ABC1 35-64 ABC1 65+ ABC1 18-34 C2DE 35-64 C2DE 65+ C2DE
18-34 ABC1 n=316; 35-64 ABC1 n=631; 65+ ABC1 n=334; 18-34 C2DE n=257; 35-64 C2DE
n=482; 65+ C2DE n=197
Understanding role of immigration
44
85
42
64
74
59
64
41
62
-20
-3
-19
-10
-8
-15
-8
-31
-12
-35 -15 5 25 45 65 85
Remain
Leave
18-34
35-54
55+
ABC1
C2DE
Left wing
Total
It is essential for the immigration system to reduce the number of migrants coming
to Britain
7) Vast majority think reducing immigration essential –
including most left wing voters and most Remainers
% agree % disagree
Total Post-ref n=2716; Left wing n=355; C2DE n=1209; ABC1 n=1507;
55+ n=975; 35-54 n=959; 18-34 n=782; Leave n=1136; Remain n=1045
21
11
28
6 15
9
20
6 11
28
14 17
6
48
5
36
60
23
66
13
49
22
54
14
32
49
38
32
13
73
12
62
0
20
40
60
80
As long as the system
is well managed,
immigration can be
good for Britain
Immigrants tend to
work hard and
make a contribution
to Britain
It is essential for the
immigration system to
reduce the number of
migrants coming to Britain
Recent immigrants
should be able to
use the NHS if they
fall sick
Jan 2014 Post-ref Jan 2014 Post-ref Post-ref Jan 2014 Post-ref Jan 2014
8) But, referendum not high point of immigration
concern– positivity is up, negativity down since 2014
Total Post-ref n=2716; Total Jan 2014 n=3027
Now you will see some pairs of statements. For each, please indicate whether the FIRST statement or the
SECOND statement comes closer to your views, even if neither is exactly right.
30
7
52 48
14
80
20 41
2
35
68
6
0
25
50
75
100
Better off Worse off Better off Worse off Better off Worse off
First statement much closer
First statement somewhat closer
The NHS will be BETTER off if the UK LEAVES the EU
because migrants would not have a right to use NHS
services, and because the NHS could get the money we
currently send to the EU.
The NHS will be WORSE off if the UK LEAVES the EU
because it relies on migrants who work as doctors and
nurses; and because the recession created by leaving will
mean there is less money for the NHS.
Voters Remain Leave
9) Majority believe migration and EU a major drag on
public services, including 1 in 6 Remain voters
Voters n= 2216, Voted Remain n= 1045, Voted Leave n=1136
18 32
6
41
65
19 25
8
41
43
21
64
Good Harmed Good Harmed Good Harmed
First statement much closer
First statement somewhat closer
On balance, immigration has harmed our national culture.
Please indicate whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your views, even if
neither is exactly right.
On balance, immigration has been good for our national culture.
Voted Remain Leave
10) Country divided on whether immigration been
good for national culture.
Voters n= 2216, Voted Remain n= 1045, Voted Leave n=1136
Now you will see some pairs of statements. For each, please indicate whether the FIRST statement or the
SECOND statement comes closer to your views, even if neither is exactly right.
33 53
15
51
72
32
22
8
36
39
19
58
0
25
50
75
100
Tolerant Country back Tolerant Country back Tolerant Country back
First statement much closer
First statement somewhat closer
I want Britain to be a tolerant country where people of
different faiths and cultures have equal rights.
Britain's efforts to accept other cultures have gone too far
and this is a chance to take our country back.
Voters Remain Leave
11) In forced choice between v liberal and v socially
conservative position, half the country are liberals
Voters n= 2216, Voted Remain n= 1045, Voted Leave n=1136
12) Accusations of racism hurt the Remain campaign
more than the Leave campaign
17
15
32
27
0 20 40 60 80
Voters
Soft Leave
Very concernedSomewhat concerned
Below is a list of concerns some people had about
voting to LEAVE the EU. How concerned were you
about each?
A vote to leave would put me on the same side as racists
30
36
53
73
0 20 40 60 80
Voters
Soft Leave
Very concernedSomewhat concerned
Below is a list of concerns some people had about
voting to REMAIN in the EU. How concerned were you
about each?
The Remain campaign dismiss legitimate concerns about
immigration
Voters n= 2216, Soft Leave (voted Leave but seriously considered Remain) n= 209
Brexit policy and trade offs
Now you will see some pairs of statements. For each, please indicate whether the FIRST statement or the
SECOND statement comes closer to your views, even if neither is exactly right.
25
47
6
43
72
18 28
8
48 43
16
69
0
25
50
75
100
Common market Immigration Common market Immigration Common market Immigration
First statement much closer
First statement somewhat closer
The most important thing is that Britain keeps its access
to the common market in Europe.
The most important thing is that Britain gets complete
control over its immigration policies
13) As they voted, voters were divided on whether to
prioritise market access or free movement
Voters Remain Leave
Voters n= 2216, Voted Remain n= 1045, Voted Leave n=1136
Please indicate whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your views, even if
neither is exactly right.
20 24
39 45
26 18
47
37
0
25
50
75
100
Helps Hurts Helps Hurts
First statement much closer
First statement somewhat closer
Free movement of labour in Europe is good and benefits the British economy and British workers.
Free movement of labour in Europe is bad and hurts the British economy and British workers.
14) If anything, the campaign made people more open to
free movement
March June
March very likely voters n=1017; June voted n=2216;
As you know, Britain voted to Leave the EU. Below are some policies that are being considered now that
Britain has voted to Leave. Which do you support and which do you oppose?
19
14
64
70
Guarantee that people fromthe EU who currently live inthe UK are allowed to stay.
Change the rules for who isallowed to live in the UK, so
EU citizens and non-EUcitizens have to meet the same
criteria.
Oppose Support
10
18
78
60
28
10
50
78
Voters Remain Leave
Voters n= 2216, Voted Remain n= 1045, Voted Leave n=1136
15) Most accept migrants already can stay, new rules
should ignore whether potential migrants from EU or not
16) Emphasising ‘control’ massively increases support
for liberal policies
As you know, Britain voted to Leave the EU. Below are some policies that are being considered now that
Britain has voted to Leave. Which do you support and which do you oppose?
47
26
35
58
Significantly increase thenumber of people the UK
accepts who are fleeing warand violence
Create a stronger system foridentifying legitimate refugees
and helping them integrate;then significantly increase the
number of people the UKaccepts who are fleeing war
and violence.
Oppose Support
32
16
50
69
61
34
21
48
Remain Leave
Voters n= 2216, Voted Remain n= 1045, Voted Leave n=1136
Voters
17) Leave or Remain, workers’ rights are sacrosanct
As you know, Britain voted to Leave the EU. Below are some policies that are being considered now that
Britain has voted to Leave. Which do you support and which do you oppose?
5
9
78
70
Guarantee the right to freedomfrom discrimination at work
will be protected even after weleave the EU.
Guarantee the automatic rightto maternity leave will be
protected even after we leavethe EU
Oppose Support
5
7
80
73
5
9
77
69
Remain Leave
Voters n= 2216, Voted Remain n= 1045, Voted Leave n=1136
Voters
18) Brexit should be handled by cross-party group and
experts
As you know, Britain voted to Leave the EU. Below are some policies that are being considered now that
Britain has voted to Leave. Which do you support and which do you oppose?
10 66
Put a wide group of cross-party MPs, experts, business
people, trade unions andothers in charge of negotiating
the UK's exit from the EU
Oppose Support
9 69 12 65
Remain Leave
Voters n= 2216, Voted Remain n= 1045, Voted Leave n=1136
Voters
Media and field campaign
19) The Sun, Mail and Times seem to have moved voters
towards editorial line – Unlike Guardian or Mirror
11
19
35
31
33
50
54
66
58
72
77
81
53
68
47
50
35
32
28
28
March 2016
Referendum result
March 2016
Referendum result
March 2016
Referendum result
March 2016
Referendum result
March 2016
Referendum result
Leave Remain
Daily Mirror/
Record
Daily Mail
The
Guardian
The Sun
The Times
Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?
+66
+62
+18
+37
+14
+0
-19
-34
-30
-44
Guardian n= 141, Times n=112, Mirror/Record n=119, Mail n=417, Sun n=216
20) Remain had higher contact rates by region,
especially in London
75
74
71
70
70
70
68
66
76
69
56
61
65
67
62
66
Wales
East of England
Greater London
Scotland
North
Midlands
Yorkshire & Humberside
South East/South West
Remain campaign Leave campaign
During the campaign, which - if any - of the campaigns…
… delivered leaflets or newspapers to your home?
… did you hear from on Facebook?
… did you hear from face-to-face, for example they knocked on your door or were at a street stall?
Wales n=136, East of England n=258, Greater London n=359, Scotland n=239, North n=429,
Midlands n=445, Yorkshire and Humberside n=234, South East/South West n=617
21) Social media and F2F contact skewed in direction
people voted – effective comms or self-selection?
72
20
11
67
20
9
Leaflet
Face to face
Remain campaign Leave campaign
Voters Remain Leave
74
28
17
65
19
7
71
14
6
69
22
12
During the campaign, which - if any - of the campaigns…
… delivered leaflets or newspapers to your home?
… did you hear from on Facebook?
… did you hear from face-to-face, for example they knocked on your door or were at a street stall?
Voters n= 2216, Voted Remain n= 1045, Voted Leave n=1136
So what?
1. Not two tribes – Remain voters want to control immigration, Leave
voters not all obsessed by immigration, lots of policy overlap
2. Immigration was key to the vote though. Remain failed because it
conceded immigration and sovereignty. Should have attacked
Leave’s propositions on these issues.
3. Most challenging immigration-related issues are around culture
4. Like Labour in 2015, Remain had more contact in the ‘ground
game’, while losing the newspaper battle. Didn’t work out well
5. Broad sense establishment has let people down is a potentially
powerful majoritarian motivating force, but only if campaigns respect
voters’ core values and desire for effective government
So what?
Total national sample: n=2716, weighted by age, gender, class, region, past vote and
referendum vote
The poll was supported by the TUC
Contact: [email protected]
@jamesdmorris
The 21 things you need to know to
understand why Britain voted Leave
Findings from poll conducted Friday 24th- Mon 27th June