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The 2012 Elections: A Viewer’s Guide. Direction of Country. Financial crisis. Bush re-elected. Sept. 11. Obama inaugurated. Right track. Wrong direction. Source: NYT/CBS News polls, 3/8/2001 to 6/2/2012. Trust In Our Institutions. Source: Gallup, Nov. 28-Dec. 1, 2011. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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THE 2012 ELECTIONS:A VIEWER’S GUIDE
Direction of Country
Sept.
11
Bush
re-ele
cted
Right track Wrong direction
Obama inaugurated
Source: NYT/CBS News polls, 3/8/2001 to 6/2/2012
0102030405060708090
100Financial crisis
Trust In Our Institutions
Nurses
Pharm
acists
Medica
l doct
ors
Police
officer
sCler
gy
Accou
ntants
Journa
lists
Bank
ers
Real e
state
agen
ts
Lawye
rs
Busin
ess ex
ecutiv
es
Union l
eade
rs
Stockb
rokers
Telem
arkete
rs
Lobby
ists
Membe
rs of
Congre
ss
Car sal
esmen
0%20%40%60%80%
100% 84%73%70%
54%52%43%
26%25%20%19%18%18%12% 8% 7% 7% 7%
Do you have high/very high trust in ___
Source: Gallup, Nov. 28-Dec. 1, 2011
Voting Habits By Automobile Ownership
Dems Drive:• Hybrid
vehicles• Subarus• MinisRepubs Drive:• Jaguars• GMCs• Land Rovers• Lexuses
Voting Habits By Beer Preference
Dems drink:• Miller High Life• Guinness• Heineken• CoronaRepubs drink:• Michelob Ultra• Coors Light• Busch Light• Sam Adams
The 2008 Map
1/19/2009 7/19/2009 1/19/2010 7/19/2010 1/19/2011 7/19/2011 1/19/201225
50
75
Obama’s Job Approval1/25/200
967%
50%8/24/20
09
5/3/2010
50%
40%8/14/2011
Debt ceilin
g fight
OBL killed
Health care
passes
Stimulus
passes
1/19/2009 7/19/2009 1/19/2010 7/19/2010 1/19/2011 7/19/2011 1/19/201225
50
75
Obama’s Job Approval1/25/200
967%
50%8/24/20
09
5/3/2010
50%
40%8/14/2011
7/142011
46%
The Polls
U.S. Demographics
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 20100
102030405060708090
100 WhiteBlackHis-panicAsian
75.6%69.4%
Hisp 16.3%Af Am 12.2%Asian 4.7%
63.7%
Hisp 9%Af Am 11.8%Asian 2.8%
Hisp 12.6%Af Am 12.2%Asian 3.7%
U.S. Demographics
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 20100
102030405060708090
100 White
23.6%
75.6%69.4% 63.7
%
28.5%
33.2%
The Swing State Map
Buy A Tivo
Florida Ohio Virginia North Carolina
Colorado
$59.9 $62.9
$44.9
$22.8$30.6
$59.0
$49.9$43.0
$33.9
$24.2
Dem Spending
In Millions of Dollars
Total Ad Spending By Group
$239.6
$52.4 $75.5
$225.9
ObamaDem GroupsRomneyRepub Groups
In Millions of Dollars
2008 Vs. 2012
Obama Outside Dems
McCain/Romney
Outside Repubs
$310.1
$15.0
$134.8
$55.8
$239.6
$52.4 $75.5
$225.9
2008 Total
The Swing State Polls
Ohio Virginia Florida Colorado Iowa
46.2 47.3 47.3 47.84545.5 46.7 46.7 45.5 44.8
ObamaRomney
Source: Real Clear Politics
Obama’s 2008 Margin By State
DC VT NY MD DE CT WA OR NM NV MN IA VA FL NC MT AZ ND TX MS KS KY AR AK UT WY
Obama’s 2008 Margin By State
NH IA CO VA OH FL IN NC MO MT GA AZ
9.6 9.5 9
6.34.6
2.81.10.300000000
000004
-0.100000000
000001
-2.3
-5.2
-8.5
272 Electoral Votes
Congress’s Job Approval
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
CBS/NYTGallupNBC/WSJ
13%-16%
50%
Historic House Turnover
1900
1908
1916
1924
1932
1940
1948
1956
1964
1972
1980
1988
1996
2004
0%
50%
100%
Democrats Republicans Other
Historic House Turnover
1900
1906
1912
1918
1924
1930
1936
1942
1948
1954
1960
1966
1972
1978
1984
1990
1996
2002
2008
0
20
40
60
80
100Recessions
House Turnover, 1980-2010
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
D+27
R+54
R+34 D+3
1D+21
R+63
U.S. Senate
DemocratsRepublicansIndependents
5147
2
The Senate Landscape
Current Makeup: 53 Democrats, 47 Republicans
The Vulnerable Democrats
The Vulnerable Republicans
The Swing State Map