The 2011 Import and Export Market for Frozen Pork in China

www.icongrouponline.com ©2011 ICON Group Ltd.

The 2011 Import and Export Market for Frozen Pork in

China

By Professor Philip M. Parker, Ph. D.

Chaired Professor of Management Science INSEAD (Singapore & Fontainebleau, France)

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About the Author Dr. Philip M. Parker is the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society at INSEAD where he has taught courses on multivariate statistics and global competitive strategy since 1988. He has also taught courses at MIT, Stanford University, Harvard University, UCLA, UCSD, and the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology. He is the author of six books on the economic convergence of nations. These books introduce the notion of “physioeconomics” which foresees a lack of global convergence in economic behaviors due to physiological and physiographic forces. His latest book is "Physioeconomics: The Basis for Long-Run Economic Growth" (MIT Press 2000). He has also published numerous articles in academic journals, including The Rand Journal of Economics, Marketing Science, the Journal of International Business Studies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, International Journal of Forecasting, the European Management Journal, the European Journal of Operational Research, Journal of Marketing, International Journal of Research in Marketing, and Journal of Marketing Research. He is also on the editorial boards of several academic journals. Dr. Parker received his Ph.D. in Business Economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania and has Masters degrees in Finance and Banking (University of Aix-Marseille) and Managerial Economics (Wharton). His undergraduate degrees are in mathematics, biology and economics (minor in aeronautical engineering). He has consulted and/or taught courses in Africa, the Middle East, Asia, Latin America, North America and Europe.

About this Series This series was created for international firms who rely on foreign export markets for a substantial portion of their business or who might be threatened by foreign trade competition. The estimates given in this report were created using a methodology developed by and under the direct supervision of Professor Philip M. Parker, the Eli Lilly Chaired Professor of Innovation, Business and Society, at INSEAD. The methodology, relying on historical figures of economic growth and trade flows, estimates the market shares of some 150 countries for over 500 industrial or product categories. The figures should be seen as market estimates, as opposed to historical records, as these are projected for the current year of trade.

Acknowledgements Some of the methodologies and research approaches used in this report have benefited from the R&D Committee at INSEAD, whose research support is gratefully acknowledged. Additional editorial assistance from Tiffany LaRochelle, ICON Group International, Inc., is also acknowledged.

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Contents v


Table of Contents 1 INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY 6

2 CHINA AND THE WORLD MARKET 8 2.1 Imports in China in 2011 8 2.2 Exports from China in 2011 8

3 IMPORTS IN CHINA 9 3.1 Asia 9

3.1.1 Taiwan 9 3.2 Europe 10

3.2.1 Denmark 10 3.2.2 France 11 3.2.3 Ireland 12

3.3 North America & the Caribbean 13 3.3.1 Canada 13 3.3.2 the United States 14

4 EXPORTS FROM CHINA 15 4.1 Asia 15

4.1.1 Hong Kong 15 4.1.2 Malaysia 16 4.1.3 Mongolia 16 4.1.4 Singapore 17

4.2 Europe 18 4.2.1 Georgia 18

4.3 the Middle East 18 4.3.1 Armenia 18 4.3.2 Kyrgyzstan 19

5 DISCLAIMERS, WARRANTEES, AND USER AGREEMENT PROVISIONS 20 5.1 Disclaimers & Safe Harbor 20 5.2 ICON Group Ltd. User Agreement Provisions 21

Frozen Pork in China 6


1 INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY On the demand side, exporters and strategic planners focusing on frozen pork in China face a number of questions. Which countries are supplying frozen pork to China? How important is China compared to others in terms of the entire global and regional market? How much do the imports of frozen pork vary from one country of origin to another in China? On the supply side, China also exports frozen pork. Which countries receive the most exports from China? How are these exports concentrated across buyers? What is the value of these exports and which countries are the largest buyers? This report was created for strategic planners, international marketing executives and import/export managers who are concerned with the market for frozen pork in China. With the globalization of this market, managers can no longer be contented with a local view. Nor can managers be contented with out-of-date statistics which appear several years after the fact. I have developed a methodology, based on macroeconomic and trade models, to estimate the market for frozen pork for those countries serving China via exports, or supplying from China via imports. It does so for the current year based on a variety of key historical indicators and econometric models. In what follows, Chapter 2 begins by summarizing where China fits into the world market for imported and exported frozen pork. The total level of imports and exports on a worldwide basis, and those for China in particular, is estimated using a model which aggregates across over 150 key country markets and projects these to the current year. From there, each country represents a percent of the world market. This market is served from a number of competitive countries of origin. Based on both demand- and supply-side dynamics, market shares by country of origin are then calculated across each country market destination. These shares lead to a volume of import and export values for each country and are aggregated to regional and world totals. In doing so, we are able to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of both the value of each market and the share that China is likely to receive this year. From these figures, rankings are calculated to allow managers to prioritize China compared to other major country markets. In this way, all the figures provided in this report are forecasts that can be combined with internal information sources for strategic planning purposes. After the worldwide summary in Chapter 2 of both imports and exports of frozen pork, Chapter 3 goes into detail on imports, but for each major country of origin serving China. A “major” market is defined as a country where China represents a substantially large share of either imports or exports. For each major country exporting to China, one can thus observe how important China is to that exporting country compared to other countries of the world. Chapter 4 does the same, but for exports of frozen pork originating from China, for each major country of destination. In doing so, one can discover the share that China has in each major market; this share value is often used as a measure of competitiveness for China. In all cases, the total dollar volume and percentage share values by major trading partner are provided. Combined, Chapters 3 and 4 present a the total picture for imports and exports of frozen pork to and from China to and



from all other major countries in the world. "Frozen Pork" as a category is defined in this report following the definition given by the United Nations Statistics Division Classification Registry using the Standard International Trade Classification, Revision 3 (SITC, Rev. 3). The SITC code that defined "frozen pork" is 01222 . For more information on this definition, please refer to the following web site: http://unstats.un.org/unsd/cr/registry/regcs.asp?Cl=14&Lg=1&Co=012 . This report is updated on an annual basis. To ensure that you have the most current version, please check the web site of ICON Group at www.icongrouponline.com. Important Caveat. The figures should be seen as market estimates, as opposed to historical records, as these are forecasted for the current year of trade. More importantly, in light of the fact that unforeseeable factors might interrupt markets in achieving their reported levels, the figures should be seen as estimates of potential. For example, "mad cow" disease, foot-and-mouth disease, trade embargoes, military conflicts, acts of terrorism and other events will certainly affect the actual trade flows recorded for a variety of industry or product categories. In such cases, the difference between the numbers given in this report and the numbers actually observed might be interpreted as the "net loss" or "net gain" due to these exogenous events affecting regular trade flows that would have occurred had these events not have taken place.



2 CHINA AND THE WORLD MARKET 2.1 IMPORTS IN CHINA IN 2011

Imported Frozen Pork in China, 2011 (Structure of Foreign Import Competition)

Country of Origin Rank Value (000 US$) % Share Cumulative % _________________________________________________________________________________________________________ the United States 1 77,924 56.82 56.82 Canada 2 29,990 21.87 78.69 France 3 17,952 13.09 91.79 Denmark 4 10,475 7.64 99.42 Taiwan 5 549 0.40 99.82 Ireland 6 241 0.18 100.00 Total 137,131 100.00 100.00 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Source: Philip M. PARKER, Professor, INSEAD, copyright 2011, www.icongrouponline.com

2.2 EXPORTS FROM CHINA IN 2011 Frozen Pork Exports from China, 2011

Country of Destination Rank Value (000 US$) % Share Cumulative % _________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Hong Kong 1 140,675 90.01 90.01 Kyrgyzstan 2 8,265 5.29 95.30 Singapore 3 6,291 4.03 99.32 Malaysia 4 358 0.23 99.55 Georgia 5 322 0.21 99.76 Armenia 6 312 0.20 99.96 Mongolia 7 67 0.04 100.00 Total 156,290 100.00 100.00 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________




3 IMPORTS IN CHINA 3.1 ASIA 3.1.1 Taiwan

Frozen Pork Exports from Taiwan, 2011 Country of Destination Rank Value (000 US$) % Share Cumulative % _________________________________________________________________________________________________________ China 1 549 71.21 71.21 Singapore 2 222 28.79 100.00 Total 771 100.00 100.00 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________




3.2 EUROPE 3.2.1 Denmark

Frozen Pork Exports from Denmark, 2011 Country of Destination Rank Value (000 US$) % Share Cumulative % _________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Japan 1 800,162 48.15 48.15 Russia 2 240,653 14.48 62.63 the United States 3 180,712 10.87 73.50 Australia 4 140,269 8.44 81.94 South Korea 5 52,325 3.15 85.09 Germany 6 50,174 3.02 88.11 Sweden 7 40,733 2.45 90.56 Romania 8 29,101 1.75 92.31 Greece 9 21,180 1.27 93.58 Croatia 10 17,424 1.05 94.63 Italy 11 16,647 1.00 95.63 France 12 13,759 0.83 96.46 China 13 10,475 0.63 97.09 Estonia 14 7,862 0.47 97.56 Canada 15 6,343 0.38 97.95 Greenland 16 5,369 0.32 98.27 South Africa 17 4,348 0.26 98.53 Finland 18 4,201 0.25 98.78 New Zealand 19 3,960 0.24 99.02 Hong Kong 20 3,162 0.19 99.21 Czech Republic 21 2,682 0.16 99.37 Lithuania 22 2,576 0.15 99.53 the Netherlands 23 2,373 0.14 99.67 Norway 24 1,603 0.10 99.77 Latvia 25 996 0.06 99.83 Iceland 26 635 0.04 99.86 Singapore 27 467 0.03 99.89 Slovakia 28 392 0.02 99.92 Slovenia 29 382 0.02 99.94 Seychelles 30 219 0.01 99.95 Other 31 784 0.05 100.00 Total 1,661,968 100.00 100.00 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________




3.2.2 France

Frozen Pork Exports from France, 2011 Country of Destination Rank Value (000 US$) % Share Cumulative % _________________________________________________________________________________________________________ South Korea 1 83,144 25.93 25.93 Japan 2 45,423 14.17 40.10 Russia 3 41,337 12.89 52.99 Romania 4 29,001 9.05 62.04 Italy 5 22,029 6.87 68.91 South Africa 6 18,674 5.82 74.73 China 7 17,952 5.60 80.33 Singapore 8 13,013 4.06 84.39 Germany 9 12,303 3.84 88.23 the Netherlands 10 6,112 1.91 90.14 Greece 11 5,921 1.85 91.98 Denmark 12 5,815 1.81 93.80 Cote d'Ivoire 13 3,423 1.07 94.86 Croatia 14 2,163 0.67 95.54 Belgium 15 2,093 0.65 96.19 Malta 16 2,023 0.63 96.82 Czech Republic 17 1,812 0.57 97.39 Hong Kong 18 1,388 0.43 97.82 Slovakia 19 1,206 0.38 98.20 Latvia 20 1,146 0.36 98.55 Estonia 21 870 0.27 98.83 Slovenia 22 797 0.25 99.07 Cyprus 23 761 0.24 99.31 France 24 728 0.23 99.54 Lithuania 25 438 0.14 99.67 Ireland 26 277 0.09 99.76 Mauritius 27 172 0.05 99.82 Tunisia 28 123 0.04 99.85 Sweden 29 90 0.03 99.88 Seychelles 30 82 0.03 99.91 Other 31 298 0.09 100.00 Total 320,614 100.00 100.00 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________




3.2.3 Ireland

Frozen Pork Exports from Ireland, 2011 Country of Destination Rank Value (000 US$) % Share Cumulative % _________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Japan 1 33,387 31.99 31.99 Russia 2 26,331 25.23 57.22 the United States 3 12,194 11.68 68.90 Italy 4 7,109 6.81 75.71 Germany 5 5,750 5.51 81.22 France 6 5,190 4.97 86.20 the Netherlands 7 4,306 4.13 90.32 Denmark 8 2,051 1.97 92.29 South Korea 9 1,991 1.91 94.19 Ireland 10 1,545 1.48 95.67 Sweden 11 1,383 1.33 97.00 Singapore 12 1,214 1.16 98.16 South Africa 13 1,099 1.05 99.22 China 14 241 0.23 99.45 Iceland 15 213 0.20 99.65 Czech Republic 16 106 0.10 99.75 Hong Kong 17 82 0.08 99.83 Romania 18 76 0.07 99.90 Estonia 19 73 0.07 99.97 Belgium 20 28 0.03 100.00 Total 104,369 100.00 100.00 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________




3.3 NORTH AMERICA & THE CARIBBEAN 3.3.1 Canada

Frozen Pork Exports from Canada, 2011 Country of Destination Rank Value (000 US$) % Share Cumulative % _________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Japan 1 530,298 45.84 45.84 Russia 2 176,883 15.29 61.12 Australia 3 143,815 12.43 73.55 South Korea 4 103,013 8.90 82.46 the United States 5 100,723 8.71 91.16 China 6 29,990 2.59 93.76 New Zealand 7 26,593 2.30 96.05 South Africa 8 13,136 1.14 97.19 Mexico 9 6,503 0.56 97.75 Hong Kong 10 5,274 0.46 98.21 Macedonia 11 4,561 0.39 98.60 Colombia 12 4,508 0.39 98.99 Barbados 13 3,393 0.29 99.29 Singapore 14 3,160 0.27 99.56 Jamaica 15 2,202 0.19 99.75 Belarus 16 1,331 0.12 99.86 El Salvador 17 436 0.04 99.90 Kenya 18 279 0.02 99.93 Panama 19 253 0.02 99.95 Azerbaijan 20 122 0.01 99.96 Ecuador 21 118 0.01 99.97 Malaysia 22 88 0.01 99.98 Georgia 23 73 0.01 99.98 Dominica 24 62 0.01 99.99 Guatemala 25 60 0.01 99.99 Honduras 26 48 0.00 100.00 Canada 27 27 0.00 100.00 St. Lucia 28 7 0.00 100.00 Seychelles 29 1 0.00 100.00 Total 1,156,957 100.00 100.00 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________




3.3.2 the United States

Frozen Pork Exports from the United States, 2011 Country of Destination Rank Value (000 US$) % Share Cumulative % _________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Japan 1 550,046 40.62 40.62 Russia 2 200,607 14.81 55.43 South Korea 3 186,051 13.74 69.17 Mexico 4 117,908 8.71 77.87 Australia 5 95,759 7.07 84.94 China 6 77,924 5.75 90.70 Canada 7 39,410 2.91 93.61 Hong Kong 8 15,204 1.12 94.73 New Zealand 9 14,974 1.11 95.84 Honduras 10 8,768 0.65 96.48 Guatemala 11 8,662 0.64 97.12 France 12 8,565 0.63 97.76 the Bahamas 13 6,632 0.49 98.25 Italy 14 3,602 0.27 98.51 Colombia 15 3,517 0.26 98.77 Macedonia 16 2,610 0.19 98.96 Panama 17 2,372 0.18 99.14 El Salvador 18 2,217 0.16 99.30 Singapore 19 1,745 0.13 99.43 Germany 20 1,402 0.10 99.54 St. Lucia 21 1,047 0.08 99.61 South Africa 22 1,021 0.08 99.69 Belgium 23 904 0.07 99.76 Ecuador 24 729 0.05 99.81 Egypt 25 526 0.04 99.85 Czech Republic 26 455 0.03 99.88 Jamaica 27 335 0.02 99.91 Barbados 28 202 0.01 99.92 Austria 29 193 0.01 99.94 Norway 30 171 0.01 99.95 Other 31 699 0.05 100.00 Total 1,354,257 100.00 100.00 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________




4 EXPORTS FROM CHINA 4.1 ASIA 4.1.1 Hong Kong

Imported Frozen Pork in Hong Kong, 2011 (Structure of Foreign Import Competition)

Country of Origin Rank Value (000 US$) % Share Cumulative % _________________________________________________________________________________________________________ China 1 140,675 38.48 38.48 Brazil 2 127,942 35.00 73.48 Vietnam 3 36,340 9.94 83.42 the Netherlands 4 15,597 4.27 87.69 the United States 5 15,204 4.16 91.85 Germany 6 13,438 3.68 95.52 Canada 7 5,274 1.44 96.97 Denmark 8 3,162 0.86 97.83 Thailand 9 1,756 0.48 98.31 France 10 1,388 0.38 98.69 Spain 11 1,214 0.33 99.02 Belgium 12 1,013 0.28 99.30 Italy 13 886 0.24 99.54 Japan 14 467 0.13 99.67 Australia 15 311 0.09 99.76 Argentina 16 275 0.08 99.83 Poland 17 223 0.06 99.89 Finland 18 111 0.03 99.92 Sweden 19 84 0.02 99.95 Ireland 20 82 0.02 99.97 New Zealand 21 59 0.02 99.98 Hungary 22 58 0.02 100.00 Total 365,559 100.00 100.00 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________




4.1.2 Malaysia

Imported Frozen Pork in Malaysia, 2011 (Structure of Foreign Import Competition)

Country of Origin Rank Value (000 US$) % Share Cumulative % _________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Vietnam 1 3,610 51.30 51.30 the Netherlands 2 1,631 23.18 74.48 Australia 3 823 11.70 86.17 China 4 358 5.09 91.26 Belgium 5 156 2.22 93.48 Sweden 6 136 1.93 95.41 Germany 7 109 1.55 96.96 Canada 8 88 1.25 98.21 the United States 9 78 1.11 99.32 Denmark 10 48 0.68 100.00 Total 7,037 100.00 100.00 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________


4.1.3 Mongolia

Imported Frozen Pork in Mongolia, 2011 (Structure of Foreign Import Competition)

Country of Origin Rank Value (000 US$) % Share Cumulative % _________________________________________________________________________________________________________ China 1 67 100.00 100.00 Total 67 100.00 100.00 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________




4.1.4 Singapore

Imported Frozen Pork in Singapore, 2011 (Structure of Foreign Import Competition)

Country of Origin Rank Value (000 US$) % Share Cumulative % _________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Brazil 1 79,451 62.76 62.76 the Netherlands 2 13,632 10.77 73.53 France 3 13,013 10.28 83.80 China 4 6,291 4.97 88.77 Canada 5 3,160 2.50 91.27 Germany 6 2,449 1.93 93.20 Australia 7 1,920 1.52 94.72 Belgium 8 1,853 1.46 96.18 the United States 9 1,745 1.38 97.56 Ireland 10 1,214 0.96 98.52 Finland 11 677 0.53 99.06 Sweden 12 506 0.40 99.46 Denmark 13 467 0.37 99.82 Taiwan 14 222 0.18 100.00 Total 126,600 100.00 100.00 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________




4.2 EUROPE 4.2.1 Georgia

Imported Frozen Pork in Georgia, 2011 (Structure of Foreign Import Competition)

Country of Origin Rank Value (000 US$) % Share Cumulative % _________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Brazil 1 9,636 88.70 88.70 China 2 322 2.96 91.66 Italy 3 265 2.44 94.10 the Netherlands 4 257 2.37 96.47 the United States 5 123 1.13 97.60 Germany 6 87 0.80 98.40 Canada 7 73 0.67 99.07 Spain 8 43 0.40 99.47 Poland 9 37 0.34 99.81 France 10 21 0.19 100.00 Total 10,864 100.00 100.00 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________


4.3 THE MIDDLE EAST 4.3.1 Armenia

Imported Frozen Pork in Armenia, 2011 (Structure of Foreign Import Competition)

Country of Origin Rank Value (000 US$) % Share Cumulative % _________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Brazil 1 4,969 89.02 89.02 China 2 312 5.59 94.61 Paraguay 3 213 3.82 98.42 South Korea 4 88 1.58 100.00 Total 5,582 100.00 100.00 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________




4.3.2 Kyrgyzstan

Imported Frozen Pork in Kyrgyzstan, 2011 (Structure of Foreign Import Competition)

Country of Origin Rank Value (000 US$) % Share Cumulative % _________________________________________________________________________________________________________ China 1 8,265 100.00 100.00 Total 8,265 100.00 100.00 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________




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The 2011 Import and Export Market for Frozen Pork in China