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The 2011-2012 Winter
Weather Outlook
Fred Schmude
Manager, StormWatch Team
ImpactWeather, Inc.
ACP Proprietary (Internal Use Only )Not for use or disclosure outside the ACP Corporation except under written agreement
Steve ElliotPresident,
Greater Tampa Bay Chapter ACPProgram Director,
ACP Corporate Board of Directors
Brought to you by
The 2011-2012 WinterWeather Outlook
Fred SchmudeStormWatch ManagerImpactWeather, Inc. [email protected]
Fred specializes in hurricane forecasting, severe thunderstorms, winter weather monitoring and forecasting and long-range monthly and seasonal forecasting. He holds a BS in Geology from Texas Tech and a BS in Meteorology from Texas A&M. Fred joined ImpactWeather’s parent company as a meteorologist in 1990.
Agenda
• Detailed analysis of the ocean water trends and projected La Niña
• Brief summary of late October Snowstorm over Rockies & Northeast
• Forecast temperature & precipitation trends for late November and December
• Forecast temperature and precipitation trends for this winter season
• Main hazard weather trends projected for this winter season
• Drought outlook for Texas and Deep South
• Current soil moisture profiles signal another flood risk for the Ohio Valley and Northeast
IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) Warm Phase
IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) Warm Phase
PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation)Cold Phase
IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) Warm Phase
PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation)Cold Phase
ENSO (La Niña)Cold Phase
IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) Warm Phase
PDO (Pacific Decadal Oscillation)Cold Phase
ENSO (La Niña)Cold Phase
AMO (Atlantic- Multi-Decadal Oscillation)Warm Phase
El Niño
La Niña
El Niño
La Niña
November forecast -1.4C
El Niño
La Niña
November forecast -1.4C Winter 2011-12 forecastModerate La Nina -1 to -1.4C
Historic Late October NE U.S. Snowstorm
Record snowstorm struck the northeast U.S. October 29-30
Denver 8.5”
Amarillo 3.1”
Denver 8.5”
Amarillo 3.1”
Early Season SnowstormOct 29-30th12-24”...Peak at Peru, MA
(32”)
Denver 8.5”
Amarillo 3.1”
12-24”...Peak at Peru, MA (32”)
•26 deaths•3-4 million without power•Earliest heavy snow in many areas
Early Season SnowstormOct 29-30th
FORECASTS
Colder Than
NormalWarm
er Than
Normal
Warmer
ThanNorma
l
Colder Than
Normal
NearNormal
Weather Trends for the 3rd week of November 2011
Warmer
ThanNorma
l
Colder Than
NormalWarm
er Than
Normal
Warmer
ThanNorma
l
Colder Than
Normal
NearNormal
Weather Trends for the 3rd week of November 2011
Warmer
ThanNorma
lSTORMY
Nov 14-15
Colder Than
NormalWarm
er Than
Normal
Warmer
ThanNorma
l
Colder Than
Normal
NearNormal
Weather Trends for the 3rd week of November 2011
Warmer
ThanNorma
lSTORMY
Nov 14-15
Unsettled
Nov 15-16
Nov 16-17
Colder Than
NormalWarm
er Than
Normal
Warmer
ThanNorma
l
Colder Than
Normal
NearNormal
Weather Trends for the 3rd week of November 2011
Warmer
ThanNorma
lSTORMY
Nov 14-15
Unsettled
Nov 15-16
Nov 16-17
Unsettled
Nov 16-20
Lower Pressure Trend+ NAO & AO phase
Weather Trends for the 4th week of November 2011
L L
Lower Pressure Trend+ NAO & AO phase
Weather Trends for the 4th week of November 2011
L L LLower Pressure
Trend +EPO
Lower Pressure Trend+ NAO & AO phase
Weather Trends for the 4th week of November 2011
L L LLower Pressure
Trend +EPO
Higher Pressure
Lower Pressure
-PNALH
Lower Pressure Trend+ NAO & AO phase
Weather Trends for the 4th week of November 2011
L L LLower Pressure
Trend +EPO
Higher Pressure
Lower Pressure
-PNALH
Cooler thannormal
Weather Trends for the 4th week of November 2011
Milder than normal
Milder than normal
Cooler thannormal
Weather Trends for the 4th week of November 2011
Milder than normal
Milder than normal
UNSETTLED
UNSETTLED
UNSETTLED
UNSETTLED
Milder than normal
Cooler thannormal
Weather Trends for the 4th week of November 2011
Milder than normal
Milder than normal
UNSETTLED
UNSETTLED
UNSETTLED
UNSETTLED
MOSTLYDRY DRIER
Milder than normal
Higher PressureMilder &
Less Stormy
Higher Pressure
Lower PressureColder &
More Stormy
Projected Flow Pattern For December 2011
LLH
H
Higher PressureMilder &
Less Stormy
Higher Pressure
Lower PressureColder &
More Stormy
UNSETTLED
UNSETTLED
Projected Flow Pattern For December 2011
LLH
H
Higher PressureMilder &
Less Stormy
Higher Pressure
Lower PressureColder &
More Stormy
UNSETTLED
UNSETTLED
D R I E
R
Projected Flow Pattern For December 2011
LLH
H
Colder Than Normal-3 to -6 F
Colder Than Normal-2 to -4 F
Colder Than Normal-1 to -3 F
NearNormal
NearNormal
NearNormal
Temperature Outlook for December 2011
Colder Than Normal-3 to -6 F
Colder Than Normal-2 to -4 F
Colder Than Normal-1 to -3 F
NearNormal
NearNormal
NearNormal
Temperature Outlook for December 2011
Colder Than Normal-1 to -3 F
?
?
?NAO DependentTrend Definitely
Negative
Above Normal
Above Normal
Above Normal
Below Normal
Below Normal
NearNormal
NearNormal
NearNormal
NearNormal
NearNormal
Precipitation Outlook for December 2011
Higher PressureMilder &
Less Stormy
Higher PressureMilder &
Less Stormy
Lower PressureColder &
More Stormy
Projected Flow Pattern For Dec 2011-Feb 2012
H
L
H
H
L
Higher PressureMilder &
Less Stormy
Higher PressureMilder &
Less Stormy
Lower PressureColder &
More Stormy
UNSETTLED
UNSETTLED
Projected Flow Pattern For Dec 2011-Feb 2012
H
L
H
H
L
Higher PressureMilder &
Less Stormy
Higher PressureMilder &
Less Stormy
Lower PressureColder &
More Stormy
UNSETTLED
UNSETTLED
Drier & Extreme
Projected Flow Pattern For Dec 2011-Feb 2012
ARCTIC AIR
Milder
H
L
H
H
L
Temperature Outlook for Dec 2011 through Feb 2012
Colder Than Normal-2 to -4 F
Colder Than Normal-4 to -8 F
Colder Than Normal-1 to -3 F
Warmer Than Normal+1 to +3 F
Warmer Than Normal+2 to +4 F
NearNormal
NearNormal
NearNormal
Precipitation Outlook for Dec 2011 through Feb 2012
Below Normal
Below Normal
Above Normal
Above Normal
NearNormal
NearNormal
NearNormal
NearNormal
NearNormal
NearNormal
Hazard Concerns for the 2011-2012 Winter
Stormy...Higher than normal rainfall and
coastal gales!
SeattlePortlandSan Francisco
Higher than normal snowfall
likely
Hazard Concerns for the 2011-2012 Winter
Stormy...Higher than normal rainfall and
coastal gales!
SeattlePortlandSan Francisco
SpokaneBoiseBillingsSalt Lake CityReno
Higher than normal snowfall
likely
Hazard Concerns for the 2011-2012 Winter
Some Drought
Relief...still drier than normal!
Stormy...Higher than normal rainfall and
coastal gales!
SeattlePortlandSan Francisco
SpokaneBoiseBillingsSalt Lake CityReno
Higher than normal snowfall
likely
Hazard Concerns for the 2011-2012 Winter
Some Drought
Relief...still drier than normal!
Elevated risk of a hard
freeze near the coast
Stormy...Higher than normal rainfall and
coastal gales!
HoustonCorpus ChristiNew OrleansBaton Rouge TampaJacksonville
SeattlePortlandSan Francisco
SpokaneBoiseBillingsSalt Lake CityReno
Higher than normal snowfall
likely
Hazard Concerns for the 2011-2012 Winter
Some Drought
Relief...still drier than normal!
Elevated risk of a hard
freeze near the coast
Stormy...Higher than normal rainfall and
coastal gales!
HoustonCorpus ChristiNew OrleansBaton Rouge TampaJacksonville
SeattlePortlandSan Francisco
SpokaneBoiseBillingsSalt Lake CityReno
Lower than normal
snowfall
Washington D.C.BaltimorePhiladelphiaWilmington
Higher than normal snowfall
likelyElevated risk
ofheavier than
normal snowfall
Best Chance
Hazard Concerns for the 2011-2012 Winter
Some Drought
Relief...still drier than normal!
Elevated risk of a hard
freeze near the coast
Stormy...Higher than normal rainfall and
coastal gales!
MinneapolisChicagoDetroitClevelandBuffaloBostonNew York City
HoustonCorpus ChristiNew OrleansBaton Rouge TampaJacksonville
SeattlePortlandSan Francisco
SpokaneBoiseBillingsSalt Lake CityReno
Lower than normal
snowfall
Washington D.C.BaltimorePhiladelphiaWilmington
Best Chance
Higher than normal snowfall
likelyElevated risk
ofheavier than
normal snowfall
Best Chance
Hazard Concerns for the 2011-2012 Winter
Some Drought
Relief...still drier than normal!
Elevated risk of a hard
freeze near the coast
Stormy...Higher than normal rainfall and
coastal gales!
MinneapolisChicagoDetroitClevelandBuffaloBostonNew York City
HoustonCorpus ChristiNew OrleansBaton Rouge TampaJacksonville
SeattlePortlandSan Francisco
SpokaneBoiseBillingsSalt Lake CityReno
Washington D.C.BaltimorePhiladelphiaWilmington
Best Chance
Elevated freezing Rain risk
DallasOklahoma CityLittle RockSt. LouisKansas CityMemphisNashvilleIndianapolisColumbusPittsburghPhiladelphia
Lower than normal
snowfall
Abnormally Dry (yellow)
Abnormally Dry (yellow)Moderate Drought (tan)
Severe Drought (red)
Abnormally Dry (yellow)Moderate Drought (tan)
Severe Drought (brown)
Severe Drought (red)
Severe Drought (red)
Abnormally Dry (yellow)Moderate Drought (tan)
Severe Drought (brown)
Severe Drought (red)
Exceptional Drought (dark red)
Severe Drought (red)
Late season snowmelt could lead to flash flooding early in 2012
Questions
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