THE 2010 SHORT RAINS SEASON ASSESSMENT REPORT Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG)

7/31/2019 THE 2010 SHORT RAINS SEASON ASSESSMENT REPORT Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG)

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GovernmentofKenyaTHE2010SHORTRAINSSEASONASSESSMENTREPORTKenyaFoodSecuritySteeringGroup(KFSSG)CollaborativereportoftheKenyaFoodSecuritySteeringGroup:OfficeofthePresident,OfficeofthePrimeMinister,MinistriesofDevelopmentofNorthernKenyaandotherAridLands,Agriculture,LivestockDevelopment,FisheriesDevelopment,WaterandIrrigation,PublicHealthandSanitation,MedicalServices,andEducation,WFP/VAM,FEWSNET,UNICEF,FAO,OCHA,OxfamGB,UNDP,WorldVision;withfinancialsupportfromtheGovernmentofKenya,FAOandWFP.CoverageAreaforthe2010ShortRainsFoodSecurityAssessmentsDistrictsCovered2TableofContents1.0ExecutiveSummaryandKeyRecommendations.............................................................31.1SummaryofKeyfindings...................................................................................................31.2OverallPhaseclassificationinFebruary2011ascomparedtoAugust2010.......................41.3ShortRainsPerformanceandProspectsforthe2011LongRains...............

........................81.4OverallNationalMaizeSupplySituation....................................

........................................91.5FoodPriceTrends............................................................................................................101.6OptionsforResponse......................................................................................................112.0FoodSecurityAssessmentMethodologyandScope......................................................132.1BackgroundandObjectives.............................................................................................132.2TheApproach..................................................................................................................14

3.0FoodSecurityAnalysisbyLivelihoodCluster.................................................................153.1TheNorthernPastoralLivelihoodCluster........................................................................153.2TheEasternPastoralLivelihoodCluster...........................................................................193.3TheAgropastoralLivelihoodCluster................................................................................233.4TheSouthernMarginalAgriculturalLivelihoodCluster....................................................273.5TheCoastalMarginalAgriculturalLivelihoodCluster.......................................................314.0Conclusion.................................................................

....................................................355.0ProposedEmergencySectoralInterventions.................................................................364.1AgricultureSectorPriorityInterventions,MarchAugust2011....................................364.2LivestockSectorPriorityInterventions,MarchAugust2011.......................................374.3WaterSectorPriorityInterventions,MarchAugust2011...........................................374.4MarketSectorPriorityInterventions,MarchAugust2011.....................


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.....................384.5EducationSectorPriorityInterventions,MarchAugust2011.....................................384.6HealthandNutritionSectorPriorityInterventions,MarchAugust2011.....................394.6FoodSectorPriorityInterventions,MarchAugust2011.............................................4031.0ExecutiveSummaryandKeyRecommendations1.1SummaryofKeyfindingsDeteriorationinfoodsecurityacrosspastoralandmarginalagriculturallivelihoodsAnestimated2.4millionpersons,upfrom1.6millioninAugust2010,requirefoodandnon-foodassistanceforthenextsixmonths,atleast.Theinterventionsarerequiredurgently,soastobridgesignificanthouseholdfoodgapswhileprotectinglivelihoods.Theexceptionallypoorperformanceofthe2010OctobertoDecembershortrainsoccurredaftersimilarlypoorMarch-Junelongrainsinthenorthernandnortheasternpastoralareas;andthesoutheasternandcoastallowlands.Theimpactsofcumulativepoorrainshaveprecipitatedarapiddeclineinhouseholdfoodsecurityintheseareas.Thedeteriorationinfoodsecurityissignificantbecausehouseholdsandlivelihoodswerejustbeginningtorecoverfromtheeffectsoftheprolongeddroughtthatstartedin2007andendedinOctober2009.Thecurrentdeclineinfoodsecurityhasbeenmoderatedbytheextensionofthe

2009shortrainsthatcontinuedthroughFebruary2010,beyondtheirnormalDecembercessation.Subsequently,foodpriceshaveremainedlowerthanduringpreviousdroughts,whilelivestockpricesareonlyjustbeginningtodecline.However,itisanticipatedthatthedeclineinratesofchildnutritionandoverallfoodsecuritymaydeepenmorequicklythannormal,becauseneighboringcountriessuchEthiopiaandSomaliaarefacedwithequallypoorconditions.Figure1.1isanillustrationofthetrendinpopulationsthathavebeenfoodinsecure,overthepastsevenyears,showingagenerallyunstablefoodsecuritysituation.ThekeyareasofimmediateconcernincludeMarsabit,Isiolo,Moyale,Mandera,WajirandGarissaandseveralpartsofthesoutheasternandcoastallowlands.Nevertheless,maizeproductioninKenyasgrainbasketdistrictsoftheRiftValleyandpartsofwesternKenyaisfavorableandcouldmitigateasudden,sharpriseinfoodprices.

UrbanfoodinsecuritysummaryfindingsTheKenyaFoodSecuritySteeringGroup(KFSSG)carriedadetailedhouseholdsurveyinhighpopulationdensityurbancentersacrossalllivelihoods.Anestimated3,900householdswereinterviewedand5,180childrensurveyed,inordertoestablishthecharacteristicsofurbanfoodinsecurityandnutrition,acrossthecountry.OnethirdofKenyas38.6millionpeopleliveinurbanareas,outofwhich40percentresideinslums.Preliminaryresultsfromthebaselinesurveyweretellingrisingfoodinsecuritywasprecipitatedbyseveralfactors,including,rapidandrisingurbanization-thecurrentpopulationinurbancentersiseighttimeswhatitwasatindependence;ahighdependenceratio,suchthatdependentsexceedthewageearners;unpredictableriseinfoodandnon-foodprices;insecurity;andgrowingunemployment.0500,0001,000,0001,500,0002,000,0002,500,0003,000,0003,500,0004,000,000MarchAugustMarchAugustMarchAugustMarchAugustMarchAugustFbrua

ry200620072008200920102011NumberofpeopleSourceofData:KFSSGFigure1.1:TrendsinNumbersRequiringEmergencyCrossSectoralInterventions4Inspiteofdeterioratingfoodsecurityandincomeindicatorsinhighpopulationdensityurbancenters,urbanmigrationisrisingsteadily.Theriseisattributedtodeclininglandholdingsinruralareascoupledwithsignificantdisparitiesindevelopmentandincomeearningopportunities.Thesurveyoutcomesindicatedthatupto45percentofslumdwellershadnoaccesstosafedrinkingwater,whilesanitationcoveragewaslessthan40percent.Inaddition,closeto50percentofoverallhouseholdincomewasallocatedtofoodpurchases,aclearindicati


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onofheightenedvulnerabilityduetovolatilityinfoodprices,amidstunstablelaboropportunities.Alargeproportionofurbandwellerswereunabletomeetfoodneedsonasustainedbasisoveranextendedperiod,adoptinginstead,detrimentalcopingstrategiessuchasincreasedchildlabor,skippingmealsandforegoingnon-foodexpenditures,soastobridgesignificantdeficits.Thedetailedfindingsoftheurbanassessmentswillbeincludedinaforthcomingreport.Scopeofthe2010shortrainsfoodsecurityassessmentsThemulti-sectoral2010shortrainsassessmentswereconductedbytheGoK,UN,NGOsanddistrict-leveltechnicalteams,in30districtsinthepastoral,agropastoralandsoutheastandcoastalmarginalagriculturallowlands.Theteamsevaluatedtheimpactsofoneortwoconsecutivepoorseasonson:cropandlivestockproduction;wateravailabilityandquality;nutritionandhealth;marketsandprices;education;andfoodavailabilityandaccessatthehouseholdlevel.Theimpactsonhouseholdfoodsecurityofotherhazardsincludingconflictandlivestockdiseaseoutbreakswerealsoassessed.Detailedcross-sectoralinterventions,intendedtoaddressimmediateshort-termneedswereformulatedinthefirstinstance.Concurrently,interventionsandpolicyoptionsintendedtoaddresscausalfactorsunderlyingseeminglyintractablefoodinsecuritywereoutlined.NumbersandcategoriesofthefoodInsecureThefoodsecuritystatusofanestimated2.4millionpastoralists,agropastoralistsandmarginalagriculturalfarmhouseholdsisassessedtobeprecariousanddeepening,requiringfoodandnon-foodinterventions.Alargeproportionofthepopulationisresidinginareaswhereboththe2010longandshortrainswereunf

avorable.Impactsoftraditionalconflictinthenorthernpastoraldistrictsandnewconflictinthenortheasternpastoral,southernandcoastallowlandshavealsoaccentuatedtheimpactsofthecurrentdrought.Anestimated670,500schoolchildrenareincludedintheon-goingSchoolMealsProgramme.Inaddition,about113,000moderatelymalnourishedpregnantandlactatingwomenandchildrenlessthanfiveyearsofage,inpastoralandmarginalagriculturalareasareincludedinthesupplementaryfeedingprogramme.Resultsfrompreviousurbanassessmentssuggestedthatatleast3.5millionpersonsinurbancentersacrossalllivelihoodswereseverelyfoodinsecure.Theabsenceofwidespreadandcomprehensiveshort,mediumandlong-terminterventionsinurbanareashasmotivatedadoptionofnegativecopingstrategies.Subsequently,urbanfoodinsecurityhasdeepenedandisincreasinglycyclical,creatingalargepopulationofpeoplethatarepersistentlyunabletomeetbasicfoodandnon-foodneeds.

1.2OverallPhaseclassificationinFebruary2011ascomparedtoAugust2010Foodsecurityhaddeclinednoticeablyforpastoralistsandagropastoralistsinthenorthandnortheastandthemajorityoffarmersinthesoutheasternandcoastallowlands.Theimpactsofthepoor2010OctoberDecembershortrainsandpoorlongrainsof2010inmanyofthesameareasarelargelyresponsibleforthedeteriorationinfoodsecurity.Figure1.2isanillustrationofchangeinfoodsecuritysituationinthelastsixmonths(August2010toFebruary2011).5SignificantareasofthenorthernandnortheasternpastoraldistrictsfallintheAcuteFoodandLivelihoodCrisisphase,shadedorange.Mostotherpastoral,agropastoralandmarginalagriculturalareasareintheBorderlineFoodInsecurephase,withincreasedlikelihoodofslidingtoaworsephase.Theborderlinefoodinsecureareasareshadedyellow.Somefewmarginalagriculturalareasareint

heGenerallyFoodSecurePhase,lowresilience,withamoderateriskofthefoodsecurityworseningtotheBorderlinePhase.1.2.1AreasclassifiedintheAcuteFoodandLivelihoodCrisisFoodSecurityPhaseTheAcuteFoodandLivelihoodCrisis,phase3,shadeddeepOrange,isdefinedasahighlystressedsituationcoupledwithcriticallackoffoodaccess,withhighandabovenormalratesofmalnutritioncoupledwithaccelerateddepletionoflivelihoodassetsthat,ifcontinued,willslidethepopulationintotheEmergencyphase.ThedistrictsfallingundertheAcuteFoodandLivelihoodCrisisphaseincludem


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anyareasofMarsabit,Isiolo,Moyale,Mandera,WajirandGarissa.Mostoftheseareasreceivedlessthan20percentofnormalrainsduringtheshort-rainsseason.PoorshortrainswerealsocharacteristicofneighboringareasinEthiopiaandSomalia,restrictingmigrationoptions,whileatthesametimeheighteningundesirablecompetitionforkeyenvironmentalresources-water,pastureandbrowse.ClassificationinAugust2010,ComparedtoMarch2010Figure1.2:FoodSecurityClassificationinFebruary2011ascomparedtoAugust2010Source:KFSSGassessment/ALRMP6Trekkingdistancesinsearchofpasture,browsewereashighas30-45kilometersascomparedtoJanuaryaveragesofabout10kilometers,underliningextensivedepletionofpastureandwater.Figure1.3isanillustrationofon-goinglivestockmigrationroutes,depictingageneralhaphazardnessinmigrationpatterns.However,migrationisalsorestrictedbyuniformityinthescarcityofgrazingresourcesinmostareasaswellasbygrowingconflict.Scarcityofwaterisofmostseriousconcern,asboththequalityandquantityofwaterhasprecariouslydeclined.Mostpastoralistswereusingthesamesourcesforbothdomesticandlivestockuse,predisposinghouseholdstowater-bornediseaseepidemic.Householdaccesstomilkandlivestockproductshasdeclinedmarkedlyasmostlivestockmigratedfromnormalwet-seasongrazingareasasearlyasNovember.Inaddition,thepurchasingcapacitiesoflivestockkeepershavedeclinedinthisphase.Upto3-4goatsarerequiredtopurchaseabagofmaizeascomparedtoaJanuaryaverageofabout1.5-2goats,underliningthedeteriorationinpastoralte

rmsoftrade.Subsequently,sedentaryhouseholdmembersincludingthewomen,childrenandelderlyarehavingdifficultiesbridgingtheirfooddeficits.Theratesofmalnutritionmeasuredusingtheupperarmcircumference(MUAC),bytheAridLandsandResourceManagementssurveillancesystemshowsthattheriskofmalnutritionamongchildrenunderfiveyearsofage,uncharacteristicallyincreasedinJanuaryandarebetween22-27inWajir,Mandera,Marsabit,IsioloandMoyale.TheassessmentteamsalsofoundthattheCopingStrategiesIndex(CSI)hadincreasedinsomeoftheseareasto0.32,closetothecriticalthresholdof0.4.Increasingly,undesirablecopingstrategieswerebeingadoptedbyover30percentofhouseholds,inabidtomeetfoodneedsandatthesametimeprotectlivelihoods.Someofthestrategiesincludedsharingoffoodassistance,increasedhouseholddebts,separationofherds,skippingmealsandsaleoffirewood.Inextremecases,pastoral

istswereslaughteringnew-bornecalvestoprotectmothers,suchasinMoyaleandIsiolo.Thefoodsecuritysituationisexpectedtodeterioraterapidlyinareasunderthisphase,fromnowonwardthroughMarch,becausenoappreciablerainsareanticipatedbeforethen.Inaddition,mostofcopingstrategiesadoptedbythiscategoryaredetrimentaltofutureproductionbecausemostofthemnecessitatedestructionoflivelihoodsandsuppressionofnutritionlevels.Whileon-goinginterventionshavemitigatedarapiddeteriorationinfoodsecurity,anurgent,expandedinterventionisrequiredtoprotectlivesandlivelihoodsfromfurtherdeteriorationinfoodsecurity.71.2.2AreasclassifiedintheBorderlineFoodInsecurePhaseThephaseBorderlineFoodInsecure,Phase2,shadedyellow,isdefinedasborderlineadequatefoodaccesswithahighriskofslidingintoAcuteFoodandLiveliho

odsCrisisPhase.AnticipateddeteriorationinfoodsecurityislikelytooccurbecausenorainsarelikelytobeexperienceduntiltheonsetofthelongrainsinlateMarchandearlyApril.TheareasfallingwithinPhase2encompassmostoftherestoftheassessmentareasinthenorthern,northwesternandnortheasternpastoralandagropastoralareasandmostofthesoutheasternandcoastalmarginalagriculturalareas.Seefigure1.2.Whilefoodsecurityhasdeclinedsignificantlyintheshort-rainsdependentsoutheasternandcoastallowlandsinparticular,thedeteriorationinfoodsecurityhasnotwarrantedashifttotheAcuteFoodandLivelihoodCrisisphase.Householdsinthesoutheasternmarginallowlandshadsubstantialcarryoverstockfromthe2009shortrainsharvestandfoodpr


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icesweregenerallybelowaveragelevelsthroughmostof2010.ThepastoralandagropastoraldistrictsfallingunderthisphaseincludeTurkana,Samburu,southwesternMarsabit,southwesternIsiolo,southernGarissa,TanaRiver,Ijara,Baringo,Kajiado,Laikipia,WestPokotandKoibatek.Manyoftheseareasexperiencedfavorable2010longrains,inadditiontoextended2009shortrainswhichcontinuedintoFebruary2010.However,the2010October-Decembershortrainswerepoorinmostareas,asshownonfigure1.4,haltingtherecoveryprocessthathadjustbeguntotakehold.Poorrainsinneighboringpastoraldistrictshavealsoledtoin-migrationsandaninfluxoflivestockfromthePhase3areas,resultinginrapiddeteriorationofpasture,waterandbrowseandincreasedconflictincidents,particularlyinWajir,Isiolo,TurkanaandpartsofMarsabit.Scarcityofwaterisgrowingasaretrekkingdistanceswhichhavereached15kilometers,ascomparedtonormalJanuarylevelsoflessthan10kilometers.Livestockpricesare10-20percentaboveaverage,whiletermsoftradeareincreasinglyunfavorable,becausegrainpricesareupto33percenthigherthanaverage.Whiletheriskofmalnutritionremainsbelow20percent,ratesarerisingafterasustainedperiodofbelownormallevelsofmalnutrition.MostofthesoutheasternandcoastalmarginalagriculturallowlanddistrictsfallunderthiscategoryincludingMachakos,Makueni,Mwingi,Kitui,Mbeere,Tharaka,MeruNorth,Kieni,TaitaTaveta,Kwale,Kilifi,MalindiandLamu.Thepoor2010shortandlongrainscoupledwithcropandincomelossesthatoccurredafterthemaizeharvestwasdeemedtohavebeeninfectedwithaflatoxin,havecombinedtoaccentuatefoodinsecurityamonglowlandfarmers.Thepurchasingcapacitiesofthebumper2009shortrainscropwasnegatedbyatradebanthatpreventedfa

rmersandtradersfromaccessingmarketsthatwereoutsideproductionepicenters.Thefailureofthecritical2010shortrainshasexacerbatedtheloss,aftercloseto80percentoftheshortrainscropwaslost.Inaddition,trekkingdistancesinsearchofwaterandpasturehavecausedadeclineinthevalueandproductivityoflivestock.WaterpricesarefarhigherthanrespectiveJanuaryaverages,compromisingfurther,householdpurchasingcapacities.Laboropportunitieshavealsoreducedbecauseofthefailureoftheshortrainscrop.Householdshaveincreasedcharcoalproduction,arepurchasingfoodoncredit,skippingmealsandareunabletosendtheirchildrentoschool,underliningincreasingfoodinsecurity.TheriskofdeteriorationintotheAcuteFoodandLivelihoodCrisisforpastoralistsisincreasingbecauseoftheinfluxoflivestockfromadjacentareasthatislikelytoresultinincreaseddiseaseandconflictincidentswhiledepletingk

eygrazingresources.Ifthelongrainsaredelayedorarepoor,householdsinthisphasearelikelytoslideintoanAcuteFoodSecurityandLivelihoodCrisis.AproportionofverypoorfarmersinthesoutheasternandcoastallowlandsarelikelytoslideintotheAcuteFoodandLivelihoodCrisis,shouldthelongrainsfailureorifanexpandedcross-sectoralinterventionisnotinstituted.Manyofthosehouseholdshaveerodedtheircapacitiestocope,becauseofasuccessionoftwopoorseasonsin2010.Inaddition,substantialincomelosseswereincurredafterthebumperharvestof2009wasun-marketableduetosuspectedaflatoxinpoisoning.81.2.3AreasclassifiedintheFoodSecure-LowResiliencePhaseThephase1B,GenerallyFoodSecurelowresilience,shadedlightgreen,isdefinedasadequatefoodaccess,withmoderatetolowriskofslidingintotheBorderlin

eFoodInsecureCategory.Mostoftheseareasareneverthelesscharacterizedbychronicfoodinsecurityexacerbatedbyrecurrentshocksandhazards,inparticulardrought.Theareasclassifiedinthefoodsecure,lowresiliencephaseincludethemarginalagriculturalcroppinglowlandsalongthecoastalstrip,Lamu,southernIjaraandthehillmassesofKitui,Machakos,Makueni,Mbeere,Kitui,Tharaka,Mbeere,KieniandMeruNorthdistricts,asshowninfigure1.2.HouseholdfoodsecuritywassustainedbyasuccessionofthreegoodseasonsstartinginOctober2009throughDecember2010.Mosthouseholdsinthisphasestillretainfoodstocksfromthegoodharvestin2010,inadditiontomoderateharvestsfromthe2010longandshortrainscrops.Thefoodsecurityofthesehousehol


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dswouldhavebeenevenmorefavorablebutfortheinabilitytomarketharvestedsurpluses,afterimpositionofatradeban.Thebanwasintendedtohaltthesaleandconsumptionofaflatoxin-infectedmaize.Ifthe2011longrainsarenormal,farmhouseholdsareexpectedtoremainfoodsecure.However,iftherainsarepoor,householdfoodstockswillhavebeendepletedandthenextmajorharvestisnotanticipateduntilMarch2012,resultingindecliningfoodsecurityforhouseholdsinthisphase.1.3ShortRainsPerformanceandProspectsforthe2011LongRainsThe2010shortrainsbeganabouttwotothreeweekslaterthanexpectedinmostoftheassessmentdistricts.TheLaNiarainswerelowandcharacterizedbypoorspatialandtemporaldistributionthroughouttheseason.Inaddition,rainsendedaftersixweekstoonemonth,inmostareas.Figure1.4isanillustrationofshortrainsanomalieshighlightingthepoorperformanceofshortrains.Allareasshadedorangeandreddepictareasthatexperiencedbelownormalcumulativerainfallthroughouttheentireseason.Thevastregionsshadedredinthenorthern,northwesternandnortheasternpastoralareasareillustrativeofareasthatreceivedlessthan20percentofnormalandarethekeyareasofconcern.Theorangeareasinmostoftherestofthepastoral,agropastoralandmarginalagriculturalandcoastallowlandsshowareasthatreceivedbetween20-50percentofnormalrains.Thepoorrainsarethekeyfactorthathasaccelerateddepletionofresourcesandlivelihoodproductivities,precipitatingamarkeddeclineinhouseholdfoodsecurity.Nevertheless,the2010shortrainswerefavorableinpartsofWestern,Nyanzaand,RiftValleyhighlandsaswellasinIjaraandLamudistricts.Theareasshade

dblueillustratethefewgeographicareasthatexperiencedgenerallyabovenormalrains.Detailedanalysisoftherainfallperformanceforeachclusterwillbecoveredinsubsequentsectionsofthisreport.WAJIRTURKANAMARSABITKITUIISIOLOGARISSATANARIVERMANDERAKAJIADONAROKSAMBURUIJARAMWINGITAITATAVETAKWALEMOYALELAIKIPIALAMUMALINDIBARINGONAKURUKILIFIWESTPOKOTTHIKAMERUNORTHEMBUVictoriaL.BaringoMasingaDamL.AmboseliL.MagadiL.NaivashaCENTRALMANDERAIGEMBESOUTHIGEMBECENTRALUGANDASOMALIATANZANIAL.VictoriaSALAWAMAKUENIMACHAKOSETHIOPIAL.TurkanaPercentofnormal(%)


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70percentofthenetdeficit-producersandconsumers,situatedprimarilyinurban,pastoral,agropastoralandseveralareasofthesoutheasternandcoastalmarginalagriculturallivelihoods.MaizeproductionduringtheJuly2010June2011productionyearandprognosisTheJuly2010toJune2011croppingseasonismixedwellabovenormalharvestsinthekeygrowingareasofRiftValley,WesternandNyanzahighlandsandpoorproductioninthesoutheasternandcoastallowlands.Cropoutputhasalsobeenbelownormalinthecentralandeasternhighlandsparticularlyduringthe2010short-rainsseason.Anestimated2.8millionMTofmaizewillbeharvestedduringthe2010/11productionseason.Cumulativeoutputisbelowtheshort-termaverageofabout3.0millionMT.Althoughannualnationalmaizeconsumptionisestimatedtobe3.4millionMT,theshortfallmaybecoveredbycarryoverstockandsignificant,anticipatedcrossborderimportsthroughJune2011.Seetable1.1.However,themarketislikelytotightenconsiderablyafterMay,causingdramaticincreasesinmaizeprices.Theshort-rainsdependentsoutheasternandcoastallowlandsaswellasthepastoralandagropastoralareaswillbemostaffectedbyatighteningmarketbecauseon-farmfoodstocksarequicklydepletingandpurchasingcapacitiesaresimilarlycompromised.Itisimperativethatnationalmaizesupplyismonitoredcloselytoensurethattraditionalcrossborderimportswillindeedfilltheproductiongap.PeriodSourceQuantity(MT)August20101,800,000January-August2010Imports(crossborderandJapangrant)115,000September2010-January2011Longrainsoutputfrom grainbasket 1,700,000February-March2011Nationalshortrainsoutput200,000September2010-June2011Post-harvestlosses350,000June2011Totalnationala

vailability3,465,000September2010-June2011Totalnationalconsumption3,140,000July1,2011Surplus325,000SourceofData:MoA,MoSSP,RATIN,NCPB,MillersandTradersOpeningstocks(Farmers,NCPB,millers,traders)Table1:1MaizeAvailability:August2010-June2011101.5FoodPriceTrendsMaizepricesareonanupwardtrendacrossalllivelihoods,afterasustainedperiodofbelowaveragepricesfromSeptember2009,throughDecember2010.Thepriceofmaizevariedwidelyacrosslivelihoods,rangingfromKsh.18-22inthekeygrowingareas,toKsh.20-

30inthemarginalagriculturallivelihoodandKsh.30-45inpastoralmarkets.Theinabilitytosellthe2009shortrainsharvesthaskeptpricesbelowaveragelevels,throughoutmostof2010,inmarketsinthemarginalagriculturalareas.Figure1.5isanillustrationofcomparativemaizepricesacrosslivelihoods,whilefigure1.6depictstherecentupwardtrendinmaizepricesinkeyreferencemarkets.Thepricesareanticipatedtorisesignificantlyincomingmonthsbecause

thenextharvestisnotexpecteduntilAugust2011.Thelong-rainsseasonisalsotheminorseasoninthesoutheasternandcoastallowlandsandlittleoutputisanticipatedinthoseareas,untilMarch2012.Thepricesarelikelytorisemostsignificantlyinthepastoralandmarginalagriculturallivelihoodsbecausestocksaredepletingrapidlyafterafailedshort-rainsseason


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inthoseareas.Inaddition,marketsinpastoralareasinparticular,arepoorlyintegratedandcarrysubstantialtransactioncosts.Thehighcostsareattributedtoacombinationofapoortradeinfrastructureandasignificantriskpremiumduetorecurrentandheighteninginsecurity.Thehighandrisingfoodpricesareanadditionalsourceofvulnerabilityforhouseholdsthatarealreadygrapplingwithdiminishinghouseholdfoodstocks,decliningtermsoftrade,erodingpurchasingcapacities,growingwaterscarcityandamidstconstrainedcopingcapacities.-102030405060GarissaIsioloManderaMarsabitSamburuTurkana

WajirTaitaTavetaKilifiKwaleMalindiKituiMwingiPastoralZoneCoastMarginalAgriculturalPrice(KshperKg)Figure1.5:ComparativemaizepricesacrosslivelihoodsJanuary2011JanuaryLTM-

5001,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,500Jan-09Feb-09Mar-09Apr-09May-09Jun-09

Jul-09Aug-09Sep-09Oct-09Nov-09Dec-09Jan-10Feb-10Mar-10Apr-10


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May-10Jun-10Jul-10Aug-10Sep-10Oct-10Nov-10Dec-10Jan-11Price(Kshper90-kgbag)Fig.1.6:MaizepricetrendsinkeyreferencemarketsEldoretNairobiNakuruKisumuMombasa111.6OptionsforResponseAnexpandedfoodandnon-foodinterventionforanestimated2.4millionpeopleresidinginpastoral,agropastoralandmarginalagriculturallivelihoodsisrequired.Theneedforanexpandedinterventionismotivatedbyseveralfactorsthataresummarizedbelow:Thefailureoftheshortrainshasculminatedinthesecondsuccessivepoorseasoninkeyareasofconcerninpastoral,agropastoralandmarginalagriculturallivelihoods,deepeningfoodinsecurity.TherecoveryprocessthatbeganinOctober2009hashaltedandlivelihoodproductivitiesarelikelytoerodeprecariously,intheeventthatinterventionsarenotinstitutedurgently.

Thejust-concludedpoorshort-rainsseasonisthemostimportantseasoninmarginalagriculturalareasandthenextharvestisnotanticipateduntilMarch2012inthelowlands.CurrentpoorenvironmentalconditionsarecharacteristicofneighboringareasinEthiopiaandSomalia,suggestingthatoptionsformigrationarelimitedseverely.Livestockmortalitiesarebeginningtooccur,suchasinMoyaleandIsioloanditisimportantthatpastoralistsdonotlosetheirsoleasset,livestock.Anurgentinterventionsuchaslivestockoff-takeandprovisionofwaterforlivestockanddomesticusecouldprotectlivelihoods,whilemitigatingoutbreaksofwater-bornediseases.Ratesofchildmalnutritionarebeginningtoriseafteranextendedperiodofbelowaveragelevelsthatprevailedoverthepastone-and-halfyears.

Copingstrategies,includingundesirableones,areincreasinglybeingemployedandsomehavebeeninstitutedaslivelihoodstrategies.Implementationofnon-foodinterventionshasbeenfarbelowrequirement,overthepastseveralyears.Table1.2,inthefollowingpage,isasummaryofinterventionsthatarerequiredforeachsector.Moredetailedanalysisofsector-specificinterventionswillbeexpoundedinthelastchapterofthisdocument.12Table1.2:SummaryofPriorityInterventionsbySectorMarch2011-Aug.2011SECTORINTERVENTIONCOST1.AGRICULTURESECTORPromotewaterharvesting,soilconservationandagro-forestry;timelyprovision

ofdroughttolerantcertifiedseedsandfertilizer;capacitybuildingonGoodAgriculturalPractices(GAP)andpost-harvestmanagement;constructionofcommunitybasedstoragefacilities;provisionofgreenhouseandmicro-irrigationkits;promotefruitsprocessingandvalueaddition;constructionandexpansionofirrigationinfrastructure;andpromotionofconservationagriculture.Ksh.790M($9.75M)2.LIVESTOCKSECTORDiseasesurveillanceandvaccinations;livestocktreatments;hayandfeedssuppl


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ements;livestockoff-take;andKenyaMeatCommission(KMC)meatprocessing.Ksh.1.5B($18.5M)3.HEALTHANDNUTRITIONSECTORScale-upintegratedmanagementofacutemalnutritionthroughprovisionoftherapeuticfeeds;acceleratedintegratedmobileoutreachservicesinhardtoreachareastoincreaseaccesstohealthandnutritionservices;promotionandprotectionofinfantandyoungchildfeedingpracticesincludinghealtheducation;blanketsupplementaryfeedingtoallchildrenundertwoyearsandpregnantandlactatingwomen;procurementofadditionaldrugs,longlastinginsecticidetreatednets(LLITNs);micronutrientsupplementationforchildrenandmothersatcommunityandfacilitylevelandde-worming;andaccelerateddisease,watersafetyandnutritionsurveillance.Ksh.945M($11.7M)4.WATERSECTORRehabilitationofboreholes,damsandpans,repairofwatersupplies;watertrucking;purchaseanddistributionofplastictanks;waterqualitysurveillanceandtreatmentchemical;drillingofemergencyboreholesandfuelsubsidy.Ksh.890M($11M)5.

EDUCATIONSECTORExpansionofhomegrownschoolmealsprogramme;watertruckingtoschools;advocacy;campaignsagainstchildlaborandearlymarriages;provisionofwatertanksforrainwaterharvesting;healtheducationcampaignandde-worming.Ksh.690M($8.5M)6.MARKETSECTORMarketinfrastructuredevelopmentinformationtechnology,storageandcoolingfacilitiesdevelopment,transportationfacilitation;cerealbanking;capacitystrengtheningonvalueaddition;supplychainsdevelopmentforinputsandoutputs.Ksh.401M($4.9M)

7.FOODSECTORFoodandassociatedcostsfor2.4millionpeopleaffectedbydrought,forthenextsixmonths(March-August2011).Anestimated96,310MToffoodcommoditieswillberequired.Ksh.12.75B($157.4M)GrandTotalKsh.17.97B($221.73Million)132.0FoodSecurityAssessmentMethodologyandScope2.1BackgroundandObjectivesThe2010shortrainsassessmentswerecarriedoutundertheauspicesoftheKenyaFoodSecuritySteeringGroup(KFSSG)thatincludesinstitutionsintheGovernment,theUnitedNations,NGOsandkeydevelopmentpartners.Thecoverageofthe

assessmentextendedto30traditionallydroughtpronepastoral,agropastoralandmarginalagriculturaldistricts.Themaponpage1showstheassessmentcoverage,representingabout80percentofthecountrysgeographicarea.Figure2.1showsthegeneralizedlivelihoodzones.Thelivelihoodzoneistheunitofanalysis.Whilethenewlysubdivideddistrictswereassessed,thepointofreferenceisthepreNovember2007districtboundaries.Theactualfieldassessmentswerecarriedoutinthefollowingfivelivelihoodclusters:a)NorthernPastoralCluster(Turkana,Moyale,MarsabitandSamburudistricts).b)EasternPastoralCluster(Mandera,Wajir,Garissa,Isiolo,IjaraandTanaRiverdistricts).


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c)AgroPastoralCluster(Baringo,Koibatek,WestPokot,Nyeri,Laikipia,TransMara,NarokandKajiadodistricts).d)SouthEasternMarginalAgriculturalCluster(Tharaka,Mbeere,MeruNorth,Makueni,Machakos,Mwingi,andKituidistricts).e)CoastalMarginalAgriculturalCluster(TaitaTaveta,Malindi,Kilifi,LamuandKwaledistricts).Theoverallobjectiveoftheassessmentwastoinformhumanitarian,recoveryandshortterminterventionsacrossthefood;waterandsanitation;healthandnutrition;agricultureandlivestock;marketsandtheeducationsectors.Specificobjectiveswereto:Ascertainatthelivelihoodlevel,thequalityandquantityoftheshortrains,andassesstheirimpactonallkeysectors.Establishrequirednonfoodinterventions,withparticularemphasisonprogramsthatpromoterecoveryandbuildhouseholdresilience.Assesspotentialfoodneeds,includingoptionsfor,foodforassetsandgeneralfooddistribution.Establishtheimpactsofothercompoundingfactorssuchasconflict,livestockdisease,higherthanaveragefoodpricesandfloodsonhouseholdfoodsecurity.Figure2.1:KenyaLivelihoods142.2TheApproachTheoverallassessmentprocessesandmethodologieswerecoordinatedanddevelopedbytheKFSSG.Firstsecondarydataforallassesseddistrictswerecollectedandcollated.Thereafter,theKFSSGorganizedaoneweektrainingworkshopforassessmentteams.Duringtheworkshop,theteamsrefinedsectoralindicators,andweretakenthroughtheentireassessmentprocess,including,DSGbriefing,inter

viewinganddatacollectiontechniques,dataanalysisprocess,reportwritingandDSGdebriefing.Atthesametime,theKFSSGidentifiedinterviewsites,statistically,tominimizebiasindatacollectionandanalysis.Inthefield,eachassessmentteamconductedaminimumoftwohousehold;twocommunity;twokeyinformant;andtwomarketinterviewsineachsamplesite.Theteamsalsousedvisualinspectiontechniquesthroughtransectdrives,toobtainqualitativeinformation.Figure2.2depictthesitessampledforinterviewsandtheassessmentteamtransectrouteforMbeeredistrict.Thefielddatawascollated,reviewed,analyzedandtriangulatedtoverifyitsvalidity.TheAridLandsResourceManagementProject(ALRMP)droughtmonitoringbulletinsandtheDISKmonthlyFoodSecurityUpdatesprovidedimportantadditionalinformation.TheKFSSGadoptedamultisectoralapproachcoveringtheAgriculture,Livestock,M

arkets,HealthandNutrition,WaterandSanitation,EducationandtheFoodSectors.Theanalyticalframeworkisthelivelihood,whiletherequiredoutcomeisadetailedunderstandingofthechangesinfoodsecurityandidentificationofpopulationsinneedofmultisectoralexternalsupport,particularlyintheimmediateterm.Resultsfromsampledareaswereused,alongwithoutcomesofdiscussionswiththelargerDistrictSteeringGroups(DSGs)andsecondarydataanalysistodrawinferencesfornonvisitedareassituatedinsimilarlivelihoodzones.Whiletheanalysiswasconductedatthelivelihoodzonelevel,findingsandrecommendationswereprovidedatthedistrictanddivisionallevelforplanningpurposes.Theintegratedphaseclassificationwasemployedincategorizinglevelsoffoodsecurity.Figure2.2:SamplesitesandtransectrouteforMbeeredistrict15

3.0FoodSecurityAnalysisbyLivelihoodCluster3.1TheNorthernPastoralLivelihoodCluster3.1.1ClusterBackgroundThenorthernPastoralclusterconsistsofthelargerTurkana,Marsabit,MoyaleandSamburudistricts.Itcovers169,465squareKilometersandhasanestimatedpopulationof1,370,512persons.Thefourlargerdistrictshavebeensubdividedintofourteennewadministrativedistricts.Thepastorallivelihoodzoneaccounts


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for60percentofthepopulationwhileagropastoral,21percent;formalemployment,elevenpercent;andfisheries,eightpercent.Figure3.1.1showthelocationoftheclusterandthemainlivelihoodzones.Eightypercentofhouseholdincomeisderivedfromlivestockproduction,whichisthemainincomesource.3.1.2FactorsAffectingFoodSecurityThemainfactorsaffectingfoodsecurityintheclusterincludefrequentdroughts;widespreadlanddegradation;poorroadinfrastructurethatresultintohightransportcosts,whichtranslatetohighfoodandnon-foodcommodityprices;endemiclivestockdiseases;limitedwatersources;insecurityandcattlerustlinginMarsabit,TurkanaandSamburudistricts.3.1.3OverallFoodSecuritySituationFigure3.1.2showstheoverallfoodsecuritysituationinJanuary2011comparedtoAugust2010.

MostpartsoftheNorthernpastoralclusterhaveremainedinBorderlineFoodInsecure(BFI)phasewiththeexceptionofnortheasternMarsabitandmostofMoyalewherethefoodsecuritysituationhasdeclinedtoAcuteFoodandLivelihoodCrisis(AFLC)phase.TheriskoffoodsecuritysituationworseningismoderateinareasthatareinAFLCphase,andhighinareasthatareinBFIphase.

Figure3.1.2:FoodsecuritysituationinNorthernpastoralclusterAugust2010January2011Figure3.1.1:Northernpastoralclusterlivelihoodzone163.1.4FoodSecurityTrendsIngeneral,thefoodsecuritysituationdeclinedinmostpartsofthecluster,afterpoorperformanceoftheshortrains.ThedeclinetofoodsecuritysituationwarrantedthechangeinphaseclassificationfromBFItoAFLCphaseintheeasternpartofMarsabitandmostpartsofMoyale.Otherwise,therestoftheclusterhasremainedinBFIphase.Thesituationislikelytocontinuedeterioratingaslivestockproductivityandpricescontinuetodecline;conflictsoverresourcesheighten;andhighcerealpricesleadtounfavorabletermsoftrade,atleast,uptotheperiodaftertheonsetofthelongrains,inMay2011.However,poor

longrainsmayexacerbatefoodinsecurity,inmanyplaces.3.1.5CurrentShocksandHazards3.1.5.1RainfallInmostpartsofthecluster,theonsetoftheshortrainsdelayedby1-4weeks,withtheexceptionofcentralTurkanaandeasternMarsabitwhereonsetwasearly,inthesecondweekofOctober2010.Rainfallamountsvariedacrosstheclusterandrangedbetween10-50percentofnormalinmostpartsexceptinOropoi,northernLapurandsoutheasternKibishinTurkanadistrictandpartofWasoinSamburudistrictthatreceivedupto80percentofnormalrains.Therainswerepoorlydistributedtemporallyandspatiallyacrosstheclusterandceasedinthefir


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stweekofNovember,uptofiveweeksearlierthannormal.However,KibishandLapur,andpastoralareasofLokitaung,Lokichoggio,KibishandLapurdivisioninTurkanareceivedsomerainsinlateDecember2010andJanuary2011.3.1.5.2OtherShocksandHazardsOthershocksandhazardstofoodsecurityintheclusterincludecivilinsecurityparticularlyinSamburu,MarsabitandTurkanaandconflictsovergrazingresources.InsecurityresultedintodisplacementanddestitutionofhouseholdsinBaragoidivisionofSamburudistrict.Atthesametimeconflictincidencesoverwater,pastureandbrowse,wererisinginMarsabit.3.1.6ImpactoftheShocksandHazards3.1.6.1CropProductionThoughtheclusteristypicallypastoral,cropproductioniscarriedoutinagropastoralareasinMarsabitcentral,southofTurkanaandsouthwesternSamburu.Cropproductionismainlyrain-fedwiththeexceptionofpocketareasinTurkwel,Katilu,KainukandLokoriinTurkanawhereirrigatedcroppingoccurs.Sorghum,maizeandbeansthatcontributeto45,35and20percentoffood,and45,10and20percentofincome,arethemostimportantcropsthatareproducedwithinthecluster.Othercrops,including,vegetables,bananaandcowpeasaremainlyproducedforconsumption.Ingeneral,shortrainscropproductionperformedpoorlyacrosstheclusterduetobelownormalandpoorlydistributedrains.TheareaplantedwassignificantlylowerthannormalinresponsetotheLaNinawarning.MajorityofhouseholdsdidnothavefoodstocksasatJanuary2011.Atthesametime,traderswereholdingonly50-60percentofnormalstocks.

3.1.6.2LivestockProductionPastureandbrowsewasdepletedinmostpartsoftheclusterexceptinpocketareasofMarsabit,TurkanaandMoyalewhereforageconditionrangedfromfairtopoor,andwasexpectedtolastuntilendofFebruary2011.InthelowlandsandplateauregionsofSamburupastureandbrowseconditionwasfairtogoodandwasexpectedtolastfor3-6months.Livestocktrekkingdistancesincreasedfromthenormaloflessthan10-14kilometresto11-30kilometresinmanyplaces.However,inSamburutrekkingdistanceswerelowandaveraged3-5kilometres,andcontrastswiththe30-40kilometresinMarsabitandMoyale.17Figure3.1.3:ComparativegoatpricesinNorthernpastoralclusterPoorforageconditioncoupledwithunusuallylongtrekkingdistancesimpactedlivestockproductivity,

negatively.Asaresult,livestockbodyconditionrangedbetweenfairtogoodinTurkanaandSamburuandfairtopoorinMarsabitandMoyaledistricts.Livestockbodyconditionwasrapidlydeterioratingacrosstheclusterwhilemilkavailabilityathouseholdleveldeclineddrasticallytobelowonelitre,comparedtothenormalofuptofivelitres.ApartfromanoutbreakofFootandMouthDisease(FMD)reportedinSamburu,noseriouslivestockdiseaseoutbreakswerereportedinotherpartsofthecluster.However,droughtrelatedlivestockmortalityhadstartedtobereportedinMoyaleandMarsabit.3.1.6.3WaterandSanitation

Themainsourcesofwaterfordomesticandlivestockuseintheclusterare,dams/pans,boreholes,shallowwells,pipedwaterschemes,rivers,springsandthelake(inTurkanaandMarsabit).However,temporalwatersourcesdidnotrechargeadequatelyaftertheshortrainsandwereexpectedtolastforonetotwomonthsonly.Theaveragedistancestothewatersourcesrangedfromoneto10kilometersinmanyplacesandupto40kilometersinMoyaleandMarsabit.ThecostofwaterrangedbetweenKsh.


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2-5per20litersforhouseholdsresidingnearboreholes,whichwasnormal.However,watercostwasupto60percentaboveaverageinurbanareasofMoyaleandMarsabit.Waterconsumptiondeclinedandaveraged3-10litersperpersonperdayfromtheusualof10-15liters,exceptinmostofTurkanaandagropastoralareasofSamburuwherewaterconsumptionaveraged15-20litersperpersonperday.3.1.6.4MarketperformanceLivestockmarketoperationsweredisruptedinMoyaleandMarsabitduetoextensivelivestockmigrations.Atthesametime,increasedfoodpurchaseoncreditwasaffectingtradersabilitytoeffectivelyreplenishstocks.MaizepricesrangedbetweenKsh.30-40andwere5-10percentand30-35percentaboveaverageinSamburuandTurkana,andMoyaleandMarsabit,respectively.GoatpricesrangedfromKsh.1,200-1,700inMoyaleandSamburu,andKsh.2,000-3,000inMarsabitandTurkana.Thoughgoatpriceswereupto90percentaboveaverage,pricesweredeterioratingrapidlyduetopoorlivestock

bodyconditionasfigure3.1.3illustrates.Onlyabout20-30percentofhouseholdsthatwereabletoselllivestockwerebenefitingfromthefavorabletermsoftrade.3.1.6.5HealthandNutritionTheleadingcausesofmorbidityamongthegeneralpopulationintheclusterweremalaria,RespiratoryTractInfections(RTI),diarrhea,pneumonia,andskininfections,whichwerewithinnormalrange.However,dysenteryoutbreaksoccurredinMoyale,TurkanaandSamburuduetopoorqualityofwater.Also,15casesofmeasleswerereportedinTurkana.Nevertheless,mortalityrateswerebelowtheemergencythresholdsof2/10,000/day.

ImprovedhealthseekingbehavioramongpastoralistsandconcertedeffortsbytheMinistryofHealth(MoH)andotherpartners,throughoutreachprograms,hasledtoimprovedimmunizationcoverageacrossthecluster.However,coverageremainedwellbelownationaltargetsof80percentandaveraged50-70percentinTurkanaandMarsabit.Lackofcoolstoragefacilitiesforvaccineswascitedasamajorhindrancetoimprovedcoverage.Vitamin-AcoveragewasgenerallyhighacrosstheclusterexceptinSamburuwhereitwas42percent,mainlyduetohighmobilityofthepastoralists.18

Figure3.1.4:TrendsofunderfiveyearoldsatriskofmalnutritioninNorthernpastoralcluster05101520253035


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40Jan-10FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSeptOctNovDecJan-11%atrisk(MUAC


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ctsandunfavorabletermsoftrade.Althoughgoodperformanceofthelongrainsmaybringrelieftohouseholdsandlivelihoods,fromMay2011onwards,affectedhouseholdshaveexperiencedtwosuccessivepoorseasonsandrequiremorethanonegoodseasontostartrecovering.Poorperformanceofthelongrainswoulddeepenfoodinsecurityandresultintoheightenedlossoflivelihoodassets.19Figure3.2.2:FoodsecuritysituationinEasternpastoralclusterAugust2010January2011Figure3.2.1:Easternpastorallivelihoodcluster3.2TheEasternPastoralLivelihoodCluster3.2.1ClusterBackgroundTheEasternpastorallivelihoodclusterconsistsofthelargerMandera,Garissa,Wajir,TanaRiver,IsioloandIjaradistricts.Theclustercovers190,753squareKilometersandhasanestimatedpopulationof1,887,501persons.1Thelargerdistrictshavebeensubdividedinto22newdistricts.Themainlivelihoodsintheclusterarepastoralandagropastoral(figure3.2.1),whichaccountfor60and21percentoftheclusterpopulation,respectively.Otherslivelihoodsincludingirrigatedcropping,firewood/charcoalsellingandformalemploymentwhichaccountfor19percent

oftheclusterpopulation.Themainsourcesofincomeforhouseholdsare,livestockandcropproduction,whichcontributeto60and30percentoftotalhouseholdincome,respectively.3.2.2FactorsAffectingFoodSecurityThemainfactorsaffectingfoodsecurityintheclusterincludefrequentdroughts;recurrentlivestockdiseaseoutbreaks;poorroadinfrastructure;poorlyintegratedagriculturalmarkets;landdegradation,duetopoorgrazingregimes;frequentflashfloods;insecurityandresource-basedconflicts.3.2.3OverallFoodSecuritySituationManyareasofthesouthern

partofclusterincludingmostofTanaRiver,lowerpartsofIsioloandGarissaareinBorderlineFoodInsecurephasewhilemostofthenorthernpartofthecluster,includingmostofMandera,WajirandnorthernIsioloareinAcuteFoodandLivelihoodCrisisphase.Theriskoffoodsecuritydeterioratingtothenextphaseishigh,inmost

areas.Figure3.2.2showthefoodsecuritysituationinJanuary2011comparedtoAugust2010.1Accordingtothe2009populationprojectionsforManderaandGarissa,andthe2009populationcensusforIjara,Isiolo,TanaRiver,andWajirdistricts.203.2.4FoodSecurityTrendsThefoodsecuritysituationintheclusterisworsening.Exceptionallypoorperf


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ormanceoftheshortrainshasresultedintoinadequatereplenishmentofwatersourcesandpoorregenerationofpastureandbrowseleadingtoextremelylongtrekkingdistances,forlivestock.Asaresult,therapidlydeclininglivestockbodyconditionhastriggeredadeclineinlivestockprices.Meanwhile,cerealpricesarerisingduetoenhanceddemand.Thecontinueddeteriorationoflivestockproductivitycoupledwitherosionofpastoralpurchasingpowerislikelytoworsenfoodsecurityformajorityofhouseholds,beforetheonsetoflongrainsinApril2011.Thefoodsecuritysituationmaydegenerateifthelongrainsperformpoorly.3.2.5CurrentShocksandHazards3.2.5.1RainfallTheonsetofthe2010shortrainswastimelyacrosstheclusterexceptinthenorthernandcentralpartsofGarissadistrictthatexperiencedatwoweekdelayinthestartofrains.Theamountofrainsvariedbutwasgenerallybelow50percentofnormal,inmanyareas.Thelowestrainfallamounts,lessthan20percentofnormal,werereceivedinShanta-AbaqandModogashedivisionsinGarissa;SerichoinIsiolo;KotuloinMandera;andKotuloandTarbajinWajir.Thehighestrainfallamountsaveraging120-200percentofnormalwerereceivedinIjaradistrict,andpocketsinCentralpartofGarissaasfigure3.2.3shows.Overall,therainswereerraticandcharacterizedbyunevenspatialdistribution.RainsceasedbetweenthethirdweekofNovemberandsecondweekofDecember2010,whichwasabouttwoweeksearlierthannormal.3.2.5.2OtherShocksandHazardsOthershocksandhazardsaffectingfoodsecuritywithintheclusterincludedcon

flictsovergrazingresourcesbetweenpastoralistsandcropfarmersinTanaRiver;livestockdiseaseoutbreaksinmanyareas;andfloodsalongDauaRiverinMandera,whichaffectedirrigationstructures.3.2.6ImpactsofShocksandHazards3.2.6.1CropProductionCropproductionisimportantintheagropastorallivelihoodzoneasitcontributesto30percentofincomeandupto35percentoffood,forhouseholds.Howevertheareaplantedduringtheshortrainsseasonreducedsignificantlyto33percentofnormal,duemainlytoagropastoralistsresponsetotheLaNinawarning.Inaddition,irrigatedareawaslowerthanusual.ForinstanceinMandera,190hectarescomparedtothenormal430hectareswasirrigatedduetoreducedwaterlevelinriverDaua.Whilenoharvestswererealizedintherain-fedcroppingareas,lessthan20percentofnormalshortrainsharvestwasobtainedinirrigateda

reasofMandera,GarissaandTanaRiver.Overall,householdsmaizestockshaddepletedwhiletradersstockswerebelownormal.ForexampleinWajir,traderswereholdingabout80percentofmaizestocksnormallyheldinJanuary2011.TANZANIAWAJIRISIOLOGARISSATANARIVERMANDERAIJARAL.TurkanaPercentofnormal(%)

Documents

THE 2010 SHORT RAINS SEASON ASSESSMENT REPORT Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG)