The 10-Year Remote Sensing Industry Forecast

TRB ConferenceDecember 12, 2001

Jim Plasker

Executive Director, ASPRS

ASPRS

American Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing

Mission: “…advance knowledge and improve understanding of mapping sciences and to promote the responsible applications of photogrammetry, remote sensing, geographic information systems (GIS), and supporting technologies.”

Membership: approximately 7000 equally split among government, academia and commercial sectors

10-Year Remote Sensing Industry Forecast

Topics

Background

Review Phase I - Industry Baseline

Phase II - User Needs/Requirements (Very) Preliminary Survey Results

Background

In August 1999, ASPRS and NASA's Commercial Remote Sensing Program (CRSP) entered into a 5-year Space Act Agreement (SAA), combining resources and expertise to:

• Baseline the Remote Sensing Industry (RSI)• Develop a 10-Year RSI market forecast• Provide improved information for decision makers• Develop attendant processes

Forecast Participants

• NASA• NOAA• USGS

• Space Imaging• Kodak• SPOT• EarthData• PAR• Autometrics• Spencer-Gross• American Forests• RAND• Pictometry• Leading Edge• Lockheed Martin• Geomatics• Eaglescan• Landcare Avn.

• University of Arizona• University of Utah• University of Missouri• RIT• University of Southern Mississippi

• ASPRS• NSGIC• MAPPS

Remote Sensing Industry Definition

Platforms & Sensors

End-User

DataCollection

Data Processing

• Hardware• Software• Etc.

IndustryIntermediaries

SupportElements

• VARs• Consultants• Etc.

Business Segments

Phase I

Phase II

Forecast Process

• • • •

Findings

Conclusions

$

Time

Forecast $

20%

21%

21%

21%

17%

FocusGroup

SurveyInterview

LiteratureSearch

ANALYSIS

Forecast Plan

Phase IPhase I Characterization and Baseline Forecast Characterization and Baseline Forecast of the Industry (Dec 2000)of the Industry (Dec 2000)

Phase II Phase II Characterization of Customers/Users Characterization of Customers/Users and Determination of Their and Determination of Their

Needs/Requirements (Jan 2002)Needs/Requirements (Jan 2002)

Phase IIIPhase III Validate I and II (Dec 2003) Validate I and II (Dec 2003) Technology AssessmentTechnology Assessment

Phase IVPhase IV Market Forecast (Dec 2004)Market Forecast (Dec 2004)

Project Plan

Data Collection to Date

Phase I Interviews: 36 (Commercial CEO level) Web Surveys: 437 (Commercial, Government, Academia) Closed Envelope

Revenue Survey: 43 (Commercial, CEO/CFO level)

Phase II Interviews 134 (Managers, Users, SLT

Government) Focus Groups 4 (NSGIC, Local GIS, ASPRS/MAPPS,

URISA) Web Surveys > 700+ and counting Closed Envelope

Revenue Survey: Ongoing (Commercial, Senior level)

Topics

Review Phase I - Industry Baseline Results

Phase II - User Needs/Requirements Preliminary Survey Results

CRSI Sales 1998 to 2010

1.31.6 1.8 2.0

2.32.6

2.93.3

3.74.2

4.7

5.3

6.0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

$-B

illio

n($

CY

200

0 C

onst

ant)

Forecast Baseline

Based on calculating the average real annual growth rate from 1998-2000 (respondent estimates) and applying that rate to the out-years

Actual Projected

Market Segment as % of Sales CY 2000

0 10 20 30 40 50

% of Sales

41%

17%

15%

9%4%

4%

2%

2%

2%

2%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

National/Global Security

Mapping

Civil Government

Transportation

Environmental

Utilities

Agriculture

Exploration/Resources

Forestry

Telecommunications

Entertainment/Media

Insurance

Real Estate

Other

Aerial66%

Space34%

Primary Platform Use CY 2000

149

78

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Nu

mb

er R

esp

ond

ents

Aerial Space

Selected Barriers to Growth

Technology: Innovations needed to...• Speed availability of information (vs. data) • Provide information valued by user • Develop systems that integrate data and provide multi-disciplinary solutions• Lower costs

Workforce education • Demand for entry-level personnel exceeds supply

Insufficient Level of Customer RS Knowledge• Applications based Marketing and Demonstrations may help

CEO Interview Findings

Topics

Review Phase I - Industry Baseline Results

Phase II - User Needs/Requirements Preliminary Survey Results

Planned Cross-cut Analyses

Demographics Sectors

Commercial Academia Government

Federal Vs. SLT (Local)

Users Vs. Managers Tool Used Vs. Tools Needed Research & Development Education Levels Training Rates

Characteristics Imagery Types Accuracy/Resolution Timeliness Applications/Market

Segments Collection Means Coverage Data Layers Sources/Providers

Respondents by Sector

Government Sector respondents make up nearly half of the sample

332

239

137

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Government Commercial Academic

Res

pon

den

ts

Academic19%

Government47%

Commercial34%

708 Completed responses

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Federal Region State County City Tribal

Government Sub-Sector of EmploymentN

um

ber

of

Res

pon

ses

Sub-Sector

SLT: 60%

Local: 35%Fed: 35%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Data Information Software

Res

pon

ses

Use Plan To Use

Use/Plan To Use Remote Sensing Data/Information/Software

• >700 Respondents, providing 1600 Responses

• The majority of Respondents identified at least two categories

• Data and Information are used more than Software

Estimated short term growth: 8.0%• Data: 9.3%• Information: 8.0%• Software: 6.5%

Manager/User56%

User19%

Manager/Supervisor

25%

Manager Vs. User Perspective

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Man

ager/S

upervis

or

Man

ager/U

ser

User

Res

pon

ses

Fairly balanced perspective• 75% Users• 81% Managers

Also balanced by sectors

0

50

100

150

200

250

Educational LevelsN

um

ber

of

Res

pon

ses

Well educated workforce vs. Lack of adequately developed workforce – a numbers issue!

Degrees by Discipline

0

50

100

150

200

250

Geography

& GIS

Geology

Enviro

nmenta

l Sci

ence

Civil

Engineerin

g

Other E

ngineerin

g

Forestr

y

Compute

r Sci

ence

Business

rela

ted

Agricultu

re

Social S

cience

s

Physic

s

General S

cience

s

Photogra

mm

etry

Disciplines

Re

sp

on

se

s

• 60% have had course work related to remote sensing

Top “Instructor” disciplines per Phase I: Geography, Forestry, Civil Engineering, Photogrammetry, Geology, Environmental Science Not a bad fit!

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Gen

eral

Map

ping

Environ

men

tal

Civil G

over

nmen

t

Transp

orta

tion

Fores

try

Agricu

lture

Utiliti

es

Explor

ation

/ Res

ourc

es

Nation

al/G

lobal

Securit

y/Def

ense

Busines

s/Dem

ogra

phics

Teleco

mm

unicatio

ns

Real E

state

Oth

er

Insu

rance

Entert

ainm

ent /

Med

ia

Application/Market Areas

Res

pon

ses

Application Areas in which Respondents Work

Phase I Most Active Markets:•Mapping/Geography•Environment•Civil Government•National/Global Security•Transportation

Where is the Growth Potential?

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400 Extremely well

Very well

Fairly well

Not very well

Not at all

Meeting Application Area Needs

Application Areas

Nu

mb

er o

f R

esp

onse

s

•In general, half of the user needs are being fairly well met, but a significant number (28%) are poorly met

•This is generally true across all sectors

49%

28%

22%

Importance of RS Data/Information Characteristics

Users of data/information collected from both Aerial and Space Platforms agree that Spatial Resolution and Geolocation Accuracy are the most important characteristics

Cost is an important characteristic but not most important. However, from the surveys it appears that cost is a major driver for Manager-Users who purchase the data/information

Characteristics Important Most Important Geo-Location Accuracy 76 41 Spatial Resolution 76 40 Cost 34 4 Currentness/Timeliness of Data Delivery

27 7

Color/Spectral/Radiometric Quality

23 9

Ease of Use 23 Software Utility

Compatibility 18 1

Data Format 16 Area Coverage/Theme Size 15 1

Interview Results

0

50

100

150

200

250

< 6 in

ches

6 - 18

inch

es

19 -

35 in

ches

3 - 5

feet

6 - 15

feet

16 -

30 fe

et

> 30 fe

et

Other

s

Don't

Know

Accuracies

Res

pon

ses

Use Need

Elevation Accuracy: Use Vs. Need

There is an indicated need for increased elevation accuracy

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45Use

Need

Elevation Accuracy: Government

Level of Elevation Accuracy

Nu

mb

er o

f R

esp

onse

s

0

10

20

30

40

50

60Use

Need

Elevation Accuracy: Government

Level of Elevation Accuracy

Nu

mb

er o

f R

esp

onse

s

There appears to be a decided need for increased elevation accuracy in the Government Sector ~ 3m

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180Use

Need

Horizontal AccuracyN

um

ber

of

Res

pon

ses

Level of Geo-location Accuracy

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180Use

Need

Horizontal AccuracyN

um

ber

of

Res

pon

ses

Level of Geo-location Accuracy

Pending further analysis, it appears that there is a general need for improved geo-location accuracy of 1meter or better

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Spatial Resolution

Res

po

nse

s Use Need

Spatial Resolution

Spatial Resolution Responses

6 inches or less 29

1-3 feet 24

1-2 meters 25

3-5 meters 17

6-10 meters 10

11-15 meters 8

16-30 meters 18

More than 30meters

4

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

6 inc

hes o

r les

s

1 - 3

feet

1 mete

r

2 - 3

mete

r

4 mete

r

10 m

eter

20 m

eter

30 m

eter

60 m

eter

100 m

eter

> 100 m

eter

Others

Don't K

now

Spatial Resolution

Re

spo

nse

s

Use

Need

Spatial Resolution

Pending further analysis, it appears that there is a need for higher spatial resolution of less than 1 meter.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Time From Order To Delivery

Res

pon

ses

Academic Commercial Government

Timeliness Requirements

• Timeliness requirements tend to cluster.• Government Sector has more interest in Real Time than other Sectors• Nearly 60% of Commercial Sector interest clusters between 1-3 Days and 1-3 Months

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Imagery Types

Res

pons

es

5 Years from now

Now

Use of Imagery

Largest increases in use:-Hyperspectral-LIDAR-Digital Color-Digital B/W-Color IR Film

• Aerial Imagery is used 65% of the time.

• Multi-spectral imagery is the most used type of imagery collected by space platforms

• Digital is the most used imagery format

Conclusions

The CRSI market is growing at about 13% per year (Effects of 9/11/01?) About $2B in 2001, growing to about $6B in 2010 (Constant CY 2000 $) Aerial and Satellite markets do not seem to be in competition

The CRSI is fragmented and populated with lots of small companies Does not necessarily mean low entry barriers.

Imagery collected from Aerial Platforms is used twice as frequently compared to imagery collected from Space Platforms

High Resolution, Geo-location Accuracy and Cost are market drivers; however, information value/content has a strong influence and can overcome cost issues

Conclusions

(Continued)

Digital is the preferred format

Companies typically operate in more than one business segment

Government agencies are the largest potential Customer

group (about two-thirds of revenues through 2006 are F/S)

(Continued)

In all Sectors, the barriers to growth appear to be funding, education, training, and awareness; not available technology.

Currently, across all Sectors, the most Active Applications or Market Segments are:

• Mapping/Geography

• Environment

• Civil Government

• National/Global Security

• Transportation

Conclusions

For More Information

Slides available at:

http://www.asprs.org/asprs/news/forecast_frame.html

or

http://www.asprs.org News & External Affairs

Email the Project Team:

Forecast@asprs.org