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8/20/2019 Thayer Vietnam's Perspective on China-US Relations
1/27
Not Too Hot, Not Too Cold:A Vietnamese Perspective on
China-U.S. Relations
Carlyle A. Thayer, Paper presented tonternational Con!erence on China-US Relations
in "lo#al Perspective sponsored #y the Ne$%ealand Contemporary China Research Centre ,Victoria University o! &ellin'ton, &ellin'ton,
Ne$ %ealand
(cto#er )-*, +
8/20/2019 Thayer Vietnam's Perspective on China-US Relations
2/27
(/tline
• ntrod/ction
• Part The 0rame$or1 o! Vietnam2sRelations $ith China and the UnitedStates, **-*3
• Part + Vietnam2s Strate'icPartnerships $ith the 4a5or Po$ers,**3-+6
• Part 6 Vietnam2s Relations $ith Chinaand the United States, +6-
• Concl/sion
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ntrod/ction
• ndependence, sel!-reliance,m/ltilaterali7ation and diversi8cationo! international relations and
proactive international inte'rationand cooperation
• 4a5or po$ers: China, R/ssia, ndia,
9apan and the United States• Cooperation and str/''le
• e!ence sel!-help
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"oldiloc1s 4odel
• Not too hot – China-US coll/sion a'ainst Vietnam2s
interests• Not too cold
– Ne'ative impact on the re'ion andVietnam
• 9/st ri'ht – Vietnam can levera'e o; the dynamic
tensions
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Part The 0rame$or1 o! Vietnam2sRelations $ith China and the United
States, **-*3
• *?*-*@
• ?th National Party Con'ress >9/ne
+@ – iversi!y and m/ltilaterali7e economic
relations $ith all co/ntries
– Re'ardless o! di;erent socio-politicalsystems
– Priority to USSR, China, ndia, NA4 andne$ !riends2
– Normali7e relations $ith the United
8/20/2019 Thayer Vietnam's Perspective on China-US Relations
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(pport/nities B Challen'es
• **@
– 4a1e !riends $ith all co/ntries
– nd/strialisation and modernisation
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** Pivotal Dear
• Normalisation o! relations $ith theU.S. – U.S. 'rad/ally li!ts o#5ections to 40 and
&orld Ean1 !/ndin' !or Vietnam
• 4em#ership in AS
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Part + Vietnam2s Strate'ic Partnerships$ith the 4a5or Po$ers, **3-+6
• **3@
– nternational economic cooperation – Strate'ic partnership F R/ssian
0ederation >+@
– US-Vietnam ne'otiations on Eilateral Trade A'reement
• Ninth National Party Con'ress >+@ – nd/strialisation and modernisation #y
++
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Cooperation B Str/''le
•
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Strate'ic Partnerships
• 9apan >+3@
• ndia >+?@
• China >+*@ /p'raded tocomprehensive strate'ic partnership>+@ – 9oint Steerin' Committee
• So/th China Sea Tensions +?-)and +*
• st e!ence Policy ialo'/e $ith theUS >+@
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8/20/2019 Thayer Vietnam's Perspective on China-US Relations
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USS "eor'e &ashin'ton A/' +
USS 9ohn . StennisApril +*
USS 9ac1sonville >SSN 3**@,Paci8c Command, ec
+*
USS "eor'e H.&. E/sh A/'+
Sym#olic =y o/ts2
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Strate'ic Partnerships
• So/th orea and Spain >+*@
• A/stralia Comprehensive Partnership>+*@
• United in'dom and "ermany >+@
• taly and 0rance >+6@
• Thailand, ndonesia and Sin'apore>+6@
• Ne'otiations $ith the Philippines
• R/ssia comprehensive strate'ic
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Part 6 Vietnam2s Relations $ithChina and the United States,
+6-Vietnam-China Relations
• Comprehensive Strate'ic Cooperative
Partnership – ense net$or1 o! party, state and de!ence
mechanisms and hi'h-level eGchan'es
– 9oint Steerin' Committee !or Eilateral
Cooperation
• Easic Principles on "/idin' Settlemento! 4aritime ss/es >+@
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Vietnam-China Relations+6
• e!ence Relations – "ood$ill naval port visits
– Strate'ic e!ence ialo'/e
– e!ence 4inistry hot line
– 9oint Naval patrols in "/l! o! Ton1in>Eei#/@
• President Tr/on' Tan San' state visit>9/ne@
• Premier Ii eJian' visits Hanoi
>(cto#er@
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$23.7billion
defcitwithChina
K*.3#illions/rpl/s$ith the
US
VietNam F
US Trade
Relations
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Vietnam-US Relations +6
• 9oint Statement on ComprehensivePartnership >9/ly +6@
– President Tr/on' Tan San' visits&ashin'ton
– Commitment on Trans-Paci8c
Partnership – Conver'ence on maritime sec/rity
• A'reement on Coast "/ardcooperation – US )million !/ndin !or atrol #oats
H *) C 4 + 9 3
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H-*) Cr s s 4ay +-9/ y 3,+@
KN-951 rammed on June 23, 2014
May 26,
2014
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Vietnam-China Relations
• Ieaders 4eetin'2 9oint Steerin'Committee >9/ne )@
• Special (cto#er 3-)@
• ?th 9oint Steerin' Committee meets>(cto#er +?@
• VCP Secretary "eneral to China >April+@
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Vietnam-US Relations +
• nvitation to Vietnam2s 0orei'n4inister to visit &ashin'ton
postponed >4ay@• Polit#/ro mem#er Pham L/an' N'hivisits &ashin'ton >9/ly@
• 0orei'n 4inister Pham Einh 4inhvisits &ashin'ton >(cto#er@ – Secretary erry li!ts restrictions on sale
o! lethal $eapons on case-#y-case #asis
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Vietnam-US Relations +
• Polit#/ro mem#er B 4inister o! P/#licSec/rity Tran ai L/an' visits
&ashin'ton >4arch@• Vietnam and US iss/e de!ence 9oint
Vision Statement in Hanoi >9/ne@
• Party Secrearty "eneral N'/yen Ph/ Tron' meets $ith President (#ama in(val (Mce >9/ly@, iss/e 9oint VisionStatement
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+th National Party Con'ress
• 0irst J/arter + – Ieadership and relations $ith ChinaUS
• Chinese Sept +* held early@ – 4inister o! Plannin' and nvestment
attends
• China to re-open Cons/late in a Nan'•
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A/ditionin' !or Vietnam2s0/t/re
• Threat o! peace!/l evol/tionco/ntertpoised $ith Threat o! Chineses/#version
• (#ama-Oi S/mmit in &ashin'ton>Septem#er +@ – Vietnam !ears coll/sion
• Vietnam to host visits #y (#ama andOi in Novem#er – Chinese press/re to m/te comments
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Concl/sion
• Policy o! m/ltilaterali7ation anddiversi8cation o! eGternal relations
• Normalisation $ith China and US>** B **@ F opport/nities andchallen'es
•
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China
9apan
USA
ndia
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Concl/sion
• Strate'ic partnerships – Some /p'raded
• Comprehensive partnerships
• So/th China Sea F conver'ence insec/rity o/tloo1 #et$een Vietnamand US
• H *) /ndermined strate'ic tr/st
• "oldiloc1s model F not too hot, nottoo cold, 5/st ri'ht2
8/20/2019 Thayer Vietnam's Perspective on China-US Relations
27/27
Not Too Hot, Not Too Cold:A Vietnamese Perspective on
China-U.S. Relations
Carlyle A. Thayer, Paper presented tonternational Con!erence on China-US Relations
in "lo#al Perspective sponsored #y the Ne$%ealand Contemporary China Research Centre ,
Victoria University o! &ellin'ton, &ellin'ton,Ne$ %ealand
(cto#er )-*, +