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8/14/2019 Thayer Vietnam Strategic Review 2006
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Vietnam: A Review
Professor Carlyle A. Thayer
Presentation to
United Services Institution of the A.C.T.
July 5, 2006
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Outline
1.Doi Moi: Twenty Years On2. The Military andDoi Moi3. Vietnams Regional Role
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1. Doi Moi: Twenty Years On
Economic Change
End of central planning Decollectivisation of agriculture Market economy with socialist orientations Encouragement of direct foreign investment Poverty reduction High GDP growth rates
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Doi Moi: Twenty Years On
Social Change
Commercialization of services State control of religion Ethnic minority unrestNegative phenomena Spread of the Internet
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Doi Moi: Twenty Years On
Political Change
Regularisation of politicsNew state Constitution (1992) and Electoral
Laws
Enhancing the role of the NationalAssembly and rule by/of law
Administrative reform of state apparatus Corruption
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Tenth Party Congress April 2006
Nong Duc Manh
re-elected Secretary General
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Corruption
Nam Camcriminal network2003Ministry ofTransport, PMU
18 scandal 2006
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Transparency International
Corruption Index
2001 75th of 91 countries 2002 85th of 102 countries 2003 100th of 233 countries 2004 102nd of 145 countries 2005 107th of 158 countries
Ranked above the Philippines, PNG,Ethiopia, Indonesia, Myanmar
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2. The Military and Doi Moi
Political Role
Defend the country and the socialist regime Dual-role elites (party-military-government) A bloc within the Vietnam Communist
Party and National Assembly
Central Military Party Committee Tong Cuc 2 military intelligence
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Dual Role Elites
Military delegates to10th National Party
Congress cast ballots
for the party
leadership
Military block onCentral Committee
(~10%)
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General Phung Quang Thanh
Member of the Politburo(April 2006)
Senior LT GEN (2003) Vice Minister of National
Defence and Chief of the
General Staff (2001-06)
Member of the Party CentralCommittee (2001-present)
Commander Military Region 1 Trained in the Soviet Union Minister of NationalDefence (June 2006)
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The Military and Doi Moi
Politburo Resolution No. 2 (1987)Withdrawal from Cambodia and LaosDemobilisationBudget
Disciplinary Problems Collapse of the Soviet Union
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Vietnams Defence Expenditure 1990-02
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The Military and Doi Moi
Economic and commercial activities Military professionalisation Defence diplomacy Limited force modernisation
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Defence Diplomacy
Cold War alignments USSR, Warsaw Pact states, China, Cuba
Non-Aligned Movement Burma, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Laos,Yugoslavia
Defence relations with more than 60countries (2003)
33 Defence Attaches accredited 22 Defence Attaches posted
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Defence Diplomacy
Accrediting of Defence Attaches Protocol visits Staff College/National Defence Institute
exchanges
Goodwill visitsExternal Relations DepartmentSong and Dance Ensemble
Naval ship visits
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High-Level Exchanges
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Trends in High-Level Exchanges
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Defence Diplomacy
Russian Federation, Belgium, Thailand
North Korea, Laos, Germany
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Density of High-Level Exchanges
44% ASEAN
20% Traditional Allies
17% Major Powers
China, United States, Japan
8% New Europe
11 % Other Asia, Africa, Middle Eastand Latin America and Others
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Naval Ship Visits, 1990-2005
7 India 6 Australia 5 France 5 United Kingdom 4 Thailand3 South Korea
3 United States 2 Italy
2 Malaysia 2 Russia 1 Canada 1 China 1 Indonesia1 Japan
1 New Zealand
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Memorandum of Understanding
Annual work plans exchange of visits, training, strategic dialogue, etc.
Address specific bilateral issues Border security (land and maritime) MIA repatriation; Cam Ranh Bay
Combined military activities Medical research Search and Rescue Coordinated naval patrols
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Defence Cooperation Agreements
India (1994 and 2000)
Russia (October 1998) Australia post-1999 United States (October 1996) Other DCAs
Bulgaria, Belgium, South Korea andGermany
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Vietnams Defence Expenditure, 1991-03
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Procurement and
Defence Industry Cooperation Spare Parts Storage Repair and Maintenance Refurbishment and Upgrading Education and Training Research and Development National Defence Industry cooperation Acquisition of new capabilities
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Sales and Servicing Contracts
Russian Federation (1994, 1998, 2003) Ukraine (2002) India (2002) Europe - Bulgaria, Czech, Finland, Poland ASEAN States Singapore Other Suppliers Israel, North Korea
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Air Force Modernization
Upgrade and modernise MiG-21and Su-22fighter/ground attack aircraft
Su-30 preferred air superiority fighterFunding a major constraintMay opt for less expensive Su-22
Upgrade of Su-27s and Su-30s with beyondvisual range air-to-air missiles
Military communications satellite?
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Air Force Modernisation
Czech L-39C Trainers MiG-21 FishbedUpgrades
Su-22 M4 FitterSu-27 UBK Flanker
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4 Su-30 MKKsFulcrums 2003
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Air Defence
S-300PMU1 (SA-10 Grumble) - 2003
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Deterrence
capability inSouth China
Sea
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TarantulClass (Type 1241)
4 acquiredfrom
Russia in
1996-98
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Anti-shipping Capability
Styx
missile
Sunburn
missile
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BPS 500 Fast Attack Craft (M)
2 acquired
1998 BPS 500
now under
production
in Vietnam
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Yugo-Class Midget Submarine
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Land Force Modernisation
Main Battle TanksFinland 70 (T-54 and T-55)Poland (150 T-72)
Multiple Rocket Launch SystemCzech
Upgrade U.S. era M113 APCsSingapore?
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Grad Multiple Rocket Launcher
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Short Range Ballistic Missiles?
Scud C ballistic missileReportedly sold by
North Korea
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3. Vietnams Regional Role
Political Bureau Resolution No. 13 (1988) 7th National Party Congress (1991) Membership in ASEAN and ARF Directions and Strategies for Defending
Vietnam in the New Era8th Central Committee Plenum (July 2003)
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Vietnams Neighbours
Laos special solidarity andcomprehensive cooperation
internal security,border control, MIAs Cambodia border security, MIAs China border security
Military Region commanders Coordinated naval patrols
Thailand maritime security
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Defence Relations with China
Normalisation of diplomatic relations(1991)
Long-term Cooperative FrameworkAgreement (1999)
looking to the future, boosting goodneighborly friendship and exploring all-around
collaboration
Coordinated naval patrols in Tonkin Gulf
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Defence Relations with China
First round of consultations on defensivesecurity (Beijing, April 2005)
Chinese Commission for Science,Technology and National Defence Industrydelegation visits Hanoi (July 2005)
General Phung Quang Thanh, CGS, visitsBeijing (July 2005)
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Defence Relations
with the United States
Recovery of Missing-in-Action (MIA)remains
Normalisation of diplomatic relations(1995)
Ministerial-level exchange visits IMET International Military Educationand Training
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U.S. Naval Port Visits
USS Curtis Wilbur,
Da Nang, July
2004
USS Gary, Saigon,
March 2005
USS Vandegrift,
Saigon,
November 2003
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Ministerial Exchange Visits
20002003
2006
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Defence Relations with the U.S.
15th Asia-Pacific Military MedicineConference held in Hanoi co-sponsored by
Vietnam and the U.S. (May 2005) Prime Minister Phan Van Khai meets with
President George Bush in Washington, D.C.
( June 21, 2005)
Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeldvisits Hanoi (2006)
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Conclusion
Bringing the Military Back In VPA an important domestic political actor Military also a commercial actor Priority on naval, air defence and air force
modernisation
South China Sea contingencies Potential regional role ASEAN Rising China balance not containment
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Future Developments
PNTR status with the U.S. Membership in the World Trade
Organisation Host to APEC Summit Visit by President George BushNon-permanent membership on UN
Security Council Modest contribution to UN peacekeeping?
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Vietnam: A Review
Discussion
Questions and Answers