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WelcomeLay Of The Land Conference 2017

Florida Commercial Update

Gary M. Ralston, CCIM, SIOR, CPM, CRE, CLS, CDP, CRX, FRICS

Real estate is space for people.

• Space for people to: • live in• work in• shop in, and • store things in.

• Demand for real estate is people, jobs and money (household income).

The 15 Fastest Growing States

• CA, TX & FL are 27.1% of US population but accounted for 47.4% of growth FL is 6.4% of US population and accounted for 16.5% of growth

• FL is growing 2.6 times the rate of the US 1,007 people per day

• More people means more demand for real estate

Gary Ralston, CCIM, SIOR, CPM, CRE, CLS, CDP, CRX, [email protected] 863-877-2828www.census.gov

mailto:[email protected]

table with row headers in column A and column headers in rows 3 through 4. (leading dots indicate sub-parts)

Table 1. Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2016

Geographic AreaApril 1, 2010Population Estimate (as of July 1)

CensusEstimates Base2010201120122013201420152016

United States308,745,538308,758,105309,348,193311,663,358313,998,379316,204,908318,563,456320,896,618323,127,513

Northeast55,317,24055,318,35355,388,05655,632,76655,829,05955,988,77156,116,79156,184,73756,209,510

Midwest66,927,00166,929,82566,978,60267,153,33167,332,32067,543,94867,726,36867,838,38767,941,429

South114,555,744114,563,005114,863,114116,061,801117,299,171118,424,320119,696,311121,039,206122,319,574

West71,945,55371,946,92272,118,42172,815,46073,537,82974,247,86975,023,98675,834,28876,657,000

.Alabama4,779,7364,780,1314,785,4924,799,9184,815,9604,829,4794,843,2144,853,8754,863,300

.Alaska710,231710,249714,031722,713731,089736,879736,705737,709741,894

.Arizona6,392,0176,392,3016,408,3126,467,1636,549,6346,624,6176,719,9936,817,5656,931,071

.Arkansas2,915,9182,916,0252,921,9952,939,4932,950,6852,958,6632,966,9122,977,8532,988,248

.California37,253,95637,254,52237,332,68537,676,86138,011,07438,335,20338,680,81038,993,94039,250,017

.Colorado5,029,1965,029,3245,048,6445,118,3605,189,8675,267,6035,349,6485,448,8195,540,545

.Connecticut3,574,0973,574,1143,579,8993,589,8933,593,7953,596,0033,591,8733,584,7303,576,452

.Delaware897,934897,936899,816907,924916,993925,395934,948944,076952,065

.District of Columbia601,723601,766605,183620,477635,327649,165659,005670,377681,170

.Florida18,801,31018,804,59218,849,09819,096,95219,344,15619,582,02219,888,74120,244,91420,612,439

.Georgia9,687,6539,688,6809,713,5219,811,6109,914,6689,984,93810,087,23110,199,39810,310,371

.Hawaii1,360,3011,360,3011,363,9451,377,8641,391,8201,406,4811,416,3491,425,1571,428,557

.Idaho1,567,5821,567,6501,571,0101,584,1431,595,9111,612,0111,633,5321,652,8281,683,140

.Illinois12,830,63212,831,57412,841,57812,860,01212,870,79812,879,50512,867,54412,839,04712,801,539

.Indiana6,483,8026,484,1366,490,5286,516,4806,537,7436,569,1026,595,2336,612,7686,633,053

.Iowa3,046,3553,046,8693,050,7383,065,2233,076,3103,091,9303,108,0303,121,9973,134,693

.Kansas2,853,1182,853,1292,858,8502,869,5032,885,2622,892,8212,899,3602,906,7212,907,289

.Kentucky4,339,3674,339,3444,348,6624,369,3544,384,7994,400,4774,413,0574,424,6114,436,974

.Louisiana4,533,3724,533,4794,544,9964,575,4044,603,4294,626,4024,647,8804,668,9604,681,666

.Maine1,328,3611,328,3641,327,7301,328,2311,328,8951,329,0761,330,7191,329,4531,331,479

.Maryland5,773,5525,773,7865,788,5845,843,6035,889,6515,931,1295,967,2955,994,9836,016,447

.Massachusetts6,547,6296,547,8136,565,5246,611,9236,658,0086,706,7866,749,9116,784,2406,811,779

.Michigan9,883,6409,884,1299,877,4959,876,2139,887,2389,898,9829,915,7679,917,7159,928,300

.Minnesota5,303,9255,303,9245,311,1475,348,5625,380,2855,418,5215,453,1095,482,4355,519,952

.Mississippi2,967,2972,968,1032,970,3222,978,1622,984,9452,990,4822,992,4002,989,3902,988,726

.Missouri5,988,9275,988,9285,996,1186,010,7176,025,4156,042,7116,060,9306,076,2046,093,000

.Montana989,415989,414990,641997,8211,005,1961,014,3141,022,8671,032,0731,042,520

.Nebraska1,826,3411,826,3341,830,0511,842,2831,855,7251,868,5591,881,1451,893,7651,907,116

.Nevada2,700,5512,700,6912,703,2842,718,3792,752,5652,786,4642,833,0132,883,7582,940,058

.New Hampshire1,316,4701,316,4611,316,8721,318,4731,321,1821,322,6871,328,7431,330,1111,334,795

.New Jersey8,791,8948,791,9538,803,7298,841,2438,873,2118,899,1628,925,0018,935,4218,944,469

.New Mexico2,059,1792,059,1982,064,7562,077,7562,083,7842,085,1932,083,0242,080,3282,081,015

.New York19,378,10219,378,11019,402,64019,519,52919,602,76919,673,54619,718,51519,747,18319,745,289

.North Carolina9,535,4839,535,6889,558,9159,650,9639,746,1759,841,5909,934,39910,035,18610,146,788

.North Dakota672,591672,591674,526685,476702,087724,019739,904756,835757,952

.Ohio11,536,50411,536,72711,540,98311,544,82411,550,83911,570,02211,594,40811,605,09011,614,373

.Oklahoma3,751,3513,751,6153,759,6033,786,2743,817,0543,852,4153,877,4993,907,4143,923,561

.Oregon3,831,0743,831,0723,838,0483,868,0313,899,1163,925,7513,968,3714,024,6344,093,465

.Pennsylvania12,702,37912,702,85712,712,34312,744,29312,771,85412,781,33812,790,56512,791,90412,784,227

.Rhode Island1,052,5671,052,9401,053,3371,052,4511,052,9011,053,0331,054,4801,055,6071,056,426

.South Carolina4,625,3644,625,4104,635,9434,672,6374,720,7604,767,8944,828,4304,894,8344,961,119

.South Dakota814,180814,195816,325824,398834,441844,922852,561857,919865,454

.Tennessee6,346,1056,346,2986,356,6716,397,6346,454,3066,494,8216,544,6636,595,0566,651,194

.Texas25,145,56125,146,10025,244,31025,646,38926,071,65526,473,52526,944,75127,429,63927,862,596

.Utah2,763,8852,763,8882,775,3262,816,1242,855,7822,902,6632,941,8362,990,6323,051,217

.Vermont625,741625,741625,982626,730626,444627,140626,984626,088624,594

.Virginia8,001,0248,001,0418,025,7738,110,0358,192,0488,262,6928,317,3728,367,5878,411,808

.Washington6,724,5406,724,5456,743,2266,822,5206,895,2266,968,0067,054,1967,160,2907,288,000

.West Virginia1,852,9941,853,0111,854,2301,854,9721,856,5601,853,2311,848,5141,841,0531,831,102

.Wisconsin5,686,9865,687,2895,690,2635,709,6405,726,1775,742,8545,758,3775,767,8915,778,708

.Wyoming563,626563,767564,513567,725576,765582,684583,642586,555585,501

Puerto Rico3,725,7893,726,1573,721,5253,678,7323,634,4883,593,0773,534,8743,473,1813,411,307

Note: The estimates are based on the 2010 Census and reflect changes to the April 1, 2010 population due to the Count Question Resolution program and geographic program revisions. See Geographic Terms and Definitions at http://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/guidance-geographies/terms-and-definitions.html for a list of the states that are included in each region. All geographic boundaries for the 2016 population estimates series except statistical area delineations are as of January 1, 2016. For population estimates methodology statements, see http://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/technical-documentation/methodology.html.

Suggested Citation:

Table 1. Annual Estimates of the Resident Population for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2016 (NST-EST2016-01)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division

Release Date: December 2016

NST05


Table 5. Estimates of the Components of Resident Population Change for the United States, Regions,States, and Puerto Rico: July 1, 2015 to July 1, 2016

Geographic AreaTotal Population Change1Natural IncreaseVital EventsNet Migration

BirthsDeathsTotalInternational2Domestic

United States2,230,8951,231,7323,977,7452,746,013999,163999,163(X)

Northeast24,773131,524629,063497,539-91,185270,317-361,502

Midwest103,042215,774828,188612,414-97,816133,716-231,532

South1,280,368465,3581,540,8371,075,479790,907367,865423,042

West822,712419,076979,657560,581397,257227,265169,992

.Alabama9,4256,15158,55652,4053,8744,738-864

.Alaska4,1856,74411,2554,511-2,5572,030-4,587

.Arizona113,50630,64087,20456,56476,40514,86161,544

.Arkansas10,3957,35537,93630,5813,5303,335195

.California256,077228,998502,848273,85033,530142,553-109,023

.Colorado91,72630,33267,45337,12160,77310,55750,216

.Connecticut-8,2785,21035,84830,638-12,82217,058-29,880

.Delaware7,9891,97710,9228,9455,5832,5563,027

.District of Columbia10,7934,3249,7795,4556,3924,1162,276

.Florida367,52521,308222,793201,485325,986118,831207,155

.Georgia110,97349,337130,86281,52560,61223,83136,781

.Hawaii3,4006,27018,50712,237-2,5837,438-10,021

.Idaho30,31210,29622,79212,49618,8691,72617,143

.Illinois-37,50847,198155,238108,040-83,21030,934-114,144

.Indiana20,28522,35883,26760,909-1,08311,052-12,135

.Iowa12,69610,61039,34928,7392,9446,336-3,392

.Kansas56813,57438,70225,128-12,7445,851-18,595

.Kentucky12,36310,31555,19844,8833,3056,734-3,429

.Louisiana12,70618,54063,57045,030-5,0207,223-12,243

.Maine2,026-1,30012,54213,8423,9541,7852,169

.Maryland21,46423,28573,32150,03617626,408-26,232

.Massachusetts27,53914,46172,02457,56315,29240,898-25,606

.Michigan10,58519,084113,43794,353-5,32822,511-27,839

.Minnesota37,51727,25269,19041,93811,88213,644-1,762

.Mississippi-6646,87437,88031,006-7,4672,223-9,690

.Missouri16,79615,70074,42358,7232,1638,413-6,250

.Montana10,4472,83412,4319,5977,4225696,853

.Nebraska13,35111,19826,55315,3552,0434,187-2,144

.Nevada56,30012,69136,46223,77141,9677,39234,575

.New Hampshire4,68470212,27411,5724,3622,1752,187

.New Jersey9,04827,404102,16674,762-16,70450,087-66,791

.New Mexico6877,69225,49117,799-7,1112,637-9,748

.New York-1,89475,794236,507160,713-72,889118,478-191,367

.North Carolina111,60231,057120,77889,72180,07820,49459,584

.North Dakota1,1175,65211,8246,172-4,6841,575-6,259

.Ohio9,28322,074138,012115,938-7,96719,591-27,558

.Oklahoma16,14713,58753,17539,5882,8946,716-3,822

.Oregon68,83110,82746,19835,37156,9726,93450,038

.Pennsylvania-7,6777,844140,897133,053-10,88734,678-45,565

.Rhode Island81992110,7709,8494194,203-3,784

.South Carolina66,28510,41257,92647,51452,8445,76047,084

.South Dakota7,5354,81812,1147,2962,5731,632941

.Tennessee56,13815,98981,44365,45439,9599,44030,519

.Texas432,957211,719404,533192,814217,54291,839125,703

.Utah60,58534,99751,44416,44725,4125,63419,778

.Vermont-1,4944886,0355,547-1,910955-2,865

.Virginia44,22135,808102,36666,5587,20232,545-25,343

.Washington127,71034,00389,98255,97991,98124,41067,571

.West Virginia-9,951-2,68019,79922,479-6,5831,076-7,659

.Wisconsin10,81716,25666,07949,823-4,4057,990-12,395

.Wyoming-1,0542,7527,5904,838-3,823524-4,347

Puerto Rico-61,8742,88330,99128,108-64,757-64,757(X)

(X) Not applicable.

1 Total population change includes a residual. This residual represents the change in population that cannot be attributed to any specific demographic component. See Population Estimates Terms and Definitions at http://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/about/glossary.html.

2 Net international migration for the United States includes the international migration of both native and foreign-born populations. Specifically, it includes: (a) the net international migration of the foreign born, (b) the net migration between the United States and Puerto Rico, (c) the net migration of natives to and from the United States, and (d) the net movement of the Armed Forces population between the United States and overseas. Net international migration for Puerto Rico includes the migration of native and foreign-born populations between the United States and Puerto Rico.


Suggested Citation:

Table 5. Estimates of the Components of Resident Population Change for the United States, Regions, States, and Puerto Rico: July 1, 2015 to July 1, 2016 (NST-EST2016-05)



rank




United States308,745,538308,758,105309,348,193311,663,358313,998,379316,204,908318,563,456320,896,618323,127,513

.California37,253,95637,254,52237,332,68537,676,86138,011,07438,335,20338,680,81038,993,94039,250,017

.Texas25,145,56125,146,10025,244,31025,646,38926,071,65526,473,52526,944,75127,429,63927,862,596

.Florida18,801,31018,804,59218,849,09819,096,95219,344,15619,582,02219,888,74120,244,91420,612,439

.New York19,378,10219,378,11019,402,64019,519,52919,602,76919,673,54619,718,51519,747,18319,745,289

.Illinois12,830,63212,831,57412,841,57812,860,01212,870,79812,879,50512,867,54412,839,04712,801,539

.Pennsylvania12,702,37912,702,85712,712,34312,744,29312,771,85412,781,33812,790,56512,791,90412,784,227

.Ohio11,536,50411,536,72711,540,98311,544,82411,550,83911,570,02211,594,40811,605,09011,614,373

.Georgia9,687,6539,688,6809,713,5219,811,6109,914,6689,984,93810,087,23110,199,39810,310,371

.North Carolina9,535,4839,535,6889,558,9159,650,9639,746,1759,841,5909,934,39910,035,18610,146,788

.Michigan9,883,6409,884,1299,877,4959,876,2139,887,2389,898,9829,915,7679,917,7159,928,300

.New Jersey8,791,8948,791,9538,803,7298,841,2438,873,2118,899,1628,925,0018,935,4218,944,469

.Virginia8,001,0248,001,0418,025,7738,110,0358,192,0488,262,6928,317,3728,367,5878,411,808

.Washington6,724,5406,724,5456,743,2266,822,5206,895,2266,968,0067,054,1967,160,2907,288,000

.Arizona6,392,0176,392,3016,408,3126,467,1636,549,6346,624,6176,719,9936,817,5656,931,071

.Massachusetts6,547,6296,547,8136,565,5246,611,9236,658,0086,706,7866,749,9116,784,2406,811,779

.Tennessee6,346,1056,346,2986,356,6716,397,6346,454,3066,494,8216,544,6636,595,0566,651,194

.Indiana6,483,8026,484,1366,490,5286,516,4806,537,7436,569,1026,595,2336,612,7686,633,053

.Missouri5,988,9275,988,9285,996,1186,010,7176,025,4156,042,7116,060,9306,076,2046,093,000

.Maryland5,773,5525,773,7865,788,5845,843,6035,889,6515,931,1295,967,2955,994,9836,016,447

.Wisconsin5,686,9865,687,2895,690,2635,709,6405,726,1775,742,8545,758,3775,767,8915,778,708

.Colorado5,029,1965,029,3245,048,6445,118,3605,189,8675,267,6035,349,6485,448,8195,540,545

.Minnesota5,303,9255,303,9245,311,1475,348,5625,380,2855,418,5215,453,1095,482,4355,519,952

.South Carolina4,625,3644,625,4104,635,9434,672,6374,720,7604,767,8944,828,4304,894,8344,961,119

.Alabama4,779,7364,780,1314,785,4924,799,9184,815,9604,829,4794,843,2144,853,8754,863,300

.Louisiana4,533,3724,533,4794,544,9964,575,4044,603,4294,626,4024,647,8804,668,9604,681,666

.Kentucky4,339,3674,339,3444,348,6624,369,3544,384,7994,400,4774,413,0574,424,6114,436,974

.Oregon3,831,0743,831,0723,838,0483,868,0313,899,1163,925,7513,968,3714,024,6344,093,465

.Oklahoma3,751,3513,751,6153,759,6033,786,2743,817,0543,852,4153,877,4993,907,4143,923,561

.Connecticut3,574,0973,574,1143,579,8993,589,8933,593,7953,596,0033,591,8733,584,7303,576,452

.Iowa3,046,3553,046,8693,050,7383,065,2233,076,3103,091,9303,108,0303,121,9973,134,693

.Utah2,763,8852,763,8882,775,3262,816,1242,855,7822,902,6632,941,8362,990,6323,051,217

.Mississippi2,967,2972,968,1032,970,3222,978,1622,984,9452,990,4822,992,4002,989,3902,988,726

.Arkansas2,915,9182,916,0252,921,9952,939,4932,950,6852,958,6632,966,9122,977,8532,988,248

.Nevada2,700,5512,700,6912,703,2842,718,3792,752,5652,786,4642,833,0132,883,7582,940,058

.Kansas2,853,1182,853,1292,858,8502,869,5032,885,2622,892,8212,899,3602,906,7212,907,289

.New Mexico2,059,1792,059,1982,064,7562,077,7562,083,7842,085,1932,083,0242,080,3282,081,015

.Nebraska1,826,3411,826,3341,830,0511,842,2831,855,7251,868,5591,881,1451,893,7651,907,116

.West Virginia1,852,9941,853,0111,854,2301,854,9721,856,5601,853,2311,848,5141,841,0531,831,102

.Idaho1,567,5821,567,6501,571,0101,584,1431,595,9111,612,0111,633,5321,652,8281,683,140

.Hawaii1,360,3011,360,3011,363,9451,377,8641,391,8201,406,4811,416,3491,425,1571,428,557

.New Hampshire1,316,4701,316,4611,316,8721,318,4731,321,1821,322,6871,328,7431,330,1111,334,795

.Maine1,328,3611,328,3641,327,7301,328,2311,328,8951,329,0761,330,7191,329,4531,331,479

.Rhode Island1,052,5671,052,9401,053,3371,052,4511,052,9011,053,0331,054,4801,055,6071,056,426

.Montana989,415989,414990,641997,8211,005,1961,014,3141,022,8671,032,0731,042,520

.Delaware897,934897,936899,816907,924916,993925,395934,948944,076952,065

.South Dakota814,180814,195816,325824,398834,441844,922852,561857,919865,454

.North Dakota672,591672,591674,526685,476702,087724,019739,904756,835757,952

.Alaska710,231710,249714,031722,713731,089736,879736,705737,709741,894


.Vermont625,741625,741625,982626,730626,444627,140626,984626,088624,594

.Wyoming563,626563,767564,513567,725576,765582,684583,642586,555585,501

Puerto Rico3,725,7893,726,1573,721,5253,678,7323,634,4883,593,0773,534,8743,473,1813,411,307


Suggested Citation:




growth



CensusEstimates Base20102011201220132014201520162015 - 2016%

United States308,745,538308,758,105309,348,193311,663,358313,998,379316,204,908318,563,456320,896,618323,127,5132,230,8950.70%

.California37,253,95637,254,52237,332,68537,676,86138,011,07438,335,20338,680,81038,993,94039,250,017256,0770.66%

.Texas25,145,56125,146,10025,244,31025,646,38926,071,65526,473,52526,944,75127,429,63927,862,596432,9571.58%

.Florida18,801,31018,804,59218,849,09819,096,95219,344,15619,582,02219,888,74120,244,91420,612,439367,5251.82%

.New York19,378,10219,378,11019,402,64019,519,52919,602,76919,673,54619,718,51519,747,18319,745,289-1,894-0.01%

.Illinois12,830,63212,831,57412,841,57812,860,01212,870,79812,879,50512,867,54412,839,04712,801,539-37,508-0.29%

.Pennsylvania12,702,37912,702,85712,712,34312,744,29312,771,85412,781,33812,790,56512,791,90412,784,227-7,677-0.06%

.Ohio11,536,50411,536,72711,540,98311,544,82411,550,83911,570,02211,594,40811,605,09011,614,3739,2830.08%

.Georgia9,687,6539,688,6809,713,5219,811,6109,914,6689,984,93810,087,23110,199,39810,310,371110,9731.09%

.North Carolina9,535,4839,535,6889,558,9159,650,9639,746,1759,841,5909,934,39910,035,18610,146,788111,6021.11%

.Michigan9,883,6409,884,1299,877,4959,876,2139,887,2389,898,9829,915,7679,917,7159,928,30010,5850.11%

.New Jersey8,791,8948,791,9538,803,7298,841,2438,873,2118,899,1628,925,0018,935,4218,944,4699,0480.10%

.Virginia8,001,0248,001,0418,025,7738,110,0358,192,0488,262,6928,317,3728,367,5878,411,80844,2210.53%

.Washington6,724,5406,724,5456,743,2266,822,5206,895,2266,968,0067,054,1967,160,2907,288,000127,7101.78%

.Arizona6,392,0176,392,3016,408,3126,467,1636,549,6346,624,6176,719,9936,817,5656,931,071113,5061.66%

.Massachusetts6,547,6296,547,8136,565,5246,611,9236,658,0086,706,7866,749,9116,784,2406,811,77927,5390.41%

.Tennessee6,346,1056,346,2986,356,6716,397,6346,454,3066,494,8216,544,6636,595,0566,651,19456,1380.85%

.Indiana6,483,8026,484,1366,490,5286,516,4806,537,7436,569,1026,595,2336,612,7686,633,05320,2850.31%

.Missouri5,988,9275,988,9285,996,1186,010,7176,025,4156,042,7116,060,9306,076,2046,093,00016,7960.28%

.Maryland5,773,5525,773,7865,788,5845,843,6035,889,6515,931,1295,967,2955,994,9836,016,44721,4640.36%

.Wisconsin5,686,9865,687,2895,690,2635,709,6405,726,1775,742,8545,758,3775,767,8915,778,70810,8170.19%

.Colorado5,029,1965,029,3245,048,6445,118,3605,189,8675,267,6035,349,6485,448,8195,540,54591,7261.68%

.Minnesota5,303,9255,303,9245,311,1475,348,5625,380,2855,418,5215,453,1095,482,4355,519,95237,5170.68%

.South Carolina4,625,3644,625,4104,635,9434,672,6374,720,7604,767,8944,828,4304,894,8344,961,11966,2851.35%

.Alabama4,779,7364,780,1314,785,4924,799,9184,815,9604,829,4794,843,2144,853,8754,863,3009,4250.19%

.Louisiana4,533,3724,533,4794,544,9964,575,4044,603,4294,626,4024,647,8804,668,9604,681,66612,7060.27%

.Kentucky4,339,3674,339,3444,348,6624,369,3544,384,7994,400,4774,413,0574,424,6114,436,97412,3630.28%

.Oregon3,831,0743,831,0723,838,0483,868,0313,899,1163,925,7513,968,3714,024,6344,093,46568,8311.71%

.Oklahoma3,751,3513,751,6153,759,6033,786,2743,817,0543,852,4153,877,4993,907,4143,923,56116,1470.41%

.Connecticut3,574,0973,574,1143,579,8993,589,8933,593,7953,596,0033,591,8733,584,7303,576,452-8,278-0.23%

.Iowa3,046,3553,046,8693,050,7383,065,2233,076,3103,091,9303,108,0303,121,9973,134,69312,6960.41%

.Utah2,763,8852,763,8882,775,3262,816,1242,855,7822,902,6632,941,8362,990,6323,051,21760,5852.03%

.Mississippi2,967,2972,968,1032,970,3222,978,1622,984,9452,990,4822,992,4002,989,3902,988,726-664-0.02%

.Arkansas2,915,9182,916,0252,921,9952,939,4932,950,6852,958,6632,966,9122,977,8532,988,24810,3950.35%

.Nevada2,700,5512,700,6912,703,2842,718,3792,752,5652,786,4642,833,0132,883,7582,940,05856,3001.95%

.Kansas2,853,1182,853,1292,858,8502,869,5032,885,2622,892,8212,899,3602,906,7212,907,2895680.02%

.New Mexico2,059,1792,059,1982,064,7562,077,7562,083,7842,085,1932,083,0242,080,3282,081,0156870.03%

.Nebraska1,826,3411,826,3341,830,0511,842,2831,855,7251,868,5591,881,1451,893,7651,907,11613,3510.70%

.West Virginia1,852,9941,853,0111,854,2301,854,9721,856,5601,853,2311,848,5141,841,0531,831,102-9,951-0.54%

.Idaho1,567,5821,567,6501,571,0101,584,1431,595,9111,612,0111,633,5321,652,8281,683,14030,3121.83%

.Hawaii1,360,3011,360,3011,363,9451,377,8641,391,8201,406,4811,416,3491,425,1571,428,5573,4000.24%

.New Hampshire1,316,4701,316,4611,316,8721,318,4731,321,1821,322,6871,328,7431,330,1111,334,7954,6840.35%

.Maine1,328,3611,328,3641,327,7301,328,2311,328,8951,329,0761,330,7191,329,4531,331,4792,0260.15%

.Rhode Island1,052,5671,052,9401,053,3371,052,4511,052,9011,053,0331,054,4801,055,6071,056,4268190.08%

.Montana989,415989,414990,641997,8211,005,1961,014,3141,022,8671,032,0731,042,52010,4471.01%

.Delaware897,934897,936899,816907,924916,993925,395934,948944,076952,0657,9890.85%

.South Dakota814,180814,195816,325824,398834,441844,922852,561857,919865,4547,5350.88%

.North Dakota672,591672,591674,526685,476702,087724,019739,904756,835757,9521,1170.15%

.Alaska710,231710,249714,031722,713731,089736,879736,705737,709741,8944,1850.57%

.District of Columbia601,723601,766605,183620,477635,327649,165659,005670,377681,17010,7931.61%

.Vermont625,741625,741625,982626,730626,444627,140626,984626,088624,594-1,494-0.24%

.Wyoming563,626563,767564,513567,725576,765582,684583,642586,555585,501-1,054-0.18%

Puerto Rico3,725,7893,726,1573,721,5253,678,7323,634,4883,593,0773,534,8743,473,1813,411,307-61,874-1.78%


Suggested Citation:




growth rank



CensusEstimates Base20102011201220132014201520162015 - 2016%

United States308,745,538308,758,105309,348,193311,663,358313,998,379316,204,908318,563,456320,896,618323,127,5132,230,8950.70%

1.Texas25,145,56125,146,10025,244,31025,646,38926,071,65526,473,52526,944,75127,429,63927,862,596432,9571.58%

2.Florida18,801,31018,804,59218,849,09819,096,95219,344,15619,582,02219,888,74120,244,91420,612,439367,5251.82%

3.California37,253,95637,254,52237,332,68537,676,86138,011,07438,335,20338,680,81038,993,94039,250,017256,0770.66%

4.Washington6,724,5406,724,5456,743,2266,822,5206,895,2266,968,0067,054,1967,160,2907,288,000127,7101.78%

5.Arizona6,392,0176,392,3016,408,3126,467,1636,549,6346,624,6176,719,9936,817,5656,931,071113,5061.66%

6.North Carolina9,535,4839,535,6889,558,9159,650,9639,746,1759,841,5909,934,39910,035,18610,146,788111,6021.11%

7.Georgia9,687,6539,688,6809,713,5219,811,6109,914,6689,984,93810,087,23110,199,39810,310,371110,9731.09%

8.Colorado5,029,1965,029,3245,048,6445,118,3605,189,8675,267,6035,349,6485,448,8195,540,54591,7261.68%

9.Oregon3,831,0743,831,0723,838,0483,868,0313,899,1163,925,7513,968,3714,024,6344,093,46568,8311.71%

10.South Carolina4,625,3644,625,4104,635,9434,672,6374,720,7604,767,8944,828,4304,894,8344,961,11966,2851.35%

11.Utah2,763,8852,763,8882,775,3262,816,1242,855,7822,902,6632,941,8362,990,6323,051,21760,5852.03%

12.Nevada2,700,5512,700,6912,703,2842,718,3792,752,5652,786,4642,833,0132,883,7582,940,05856,3001.95%

13.Tennessee6,346,1056,346,2986,356,6716,397,6346,454,3066,494,8216,544,6636,595,0566,651,19456,1380.85%

14.Virginia8,001,0248,001,0418,025,7738,110,0358,192,0488,262,6928,317,3728,367,5878,411,80844,2210.53%

15.Minnesota5,303,9255,303,9245,311,1475,348,5625,380,2855,418,5215,453,1095,482,4355,519,95237,5170.68%

16.Idaho1,567,5821,567,6501,571,0101,584,1431,595,9111,612,0111,633,5321,652,8281,683,14030,3121.83%

17.Massachusetts6,547,6296,547,8136,565,5246,611,9236,658,0086,706,7866,749,9116,784,2406,811,77927,5390.41%

18.Maryland5,773,5525,773,7865,788,5845,843,6035,889,6515,931,1295,967,2955,994,9836,016,44721,4640.36%

19.Indiana6,483,8026,484,1366,490,5286,516,4806,537,7436,569,1026,595,2336,612,7686,633,05320,2850.31%

20.Missouri5,988,9275,988,9285,996,1186,010,7176,025,4156,042,7116,060,9306,076,2046,093,00016,7960.28%

.Oklahoma3,751,3513,751,6153,759,6033,786,2743,817,0543,852,4153,877,4993,907,4143,923,56116,1470.41%

.Nebraska1,826,3411,826,3341,830,0511,842,2831,855,7251,868,5591,881,1451,893,7651,907,11613,3510.70%

.Louisiana4,533,3724,533,4794,544,9964,575,4044,603,4294,626,4024,647,8804,668,9604,681,66612,7060.27%

.Iowa3,046,3553,046,8693,050,7383,065,2233,076,3103,091,9303,108,0303,121,9973,134,69312,6960.41%

.Kentucky4,339,3674,339,3444,348,6624,369,3544,384,7994,400,4774,413,0574,424,6114,436,97412,3630.28%

.Wisconsin5,686,9865,687,2895,690,2635,709,6405,726,1775,742,8545,758,3775,767,8915,778,70810,8170.19%

.District of Columbia601,723601,766605,183620,477635,327649,165659,005670,377681,17010,7931.61%

.Michigan9,883,6409,884,1299,877,4959,876,2139,887,2389,898,9829,915,7679,917,7159,928,30010,5850.11%

.Montana989,415989,414990,641997,8211,005,1961,014,3141,022,8671,032,0731,042,52010,4471.01%

.Arkansas2,915,9182,916,0252,921,9952,939,4932,950,6852,958,6632,966,9122,977,8532,988,24810,3950.35%

.Alabama4,779,7364,780,1314,785,4924,799,9184,815,9604,829,4794,843,2144,853,8754,863,3009,4250.19%

.Ohio11,536,50411,536,72711,540,98311,544,82411,550,83911,570,02211,594,40811,605,09011,614,3739,2830.08%

.New Jersey8,791,8948,791,9538,803,7298,841,2438,873,2118,899,1628,925,0018,935,4218,944,4699,0480.10%

.Delaware897,934897,936899,816907,924916,993925,395934,948944,076952,0657,9890.85%

.South Dakota814,180814,195816,325824,398834,441844,922852,561857,919865,4547,5350.88%

.New Hampshire1,316,4701,316,4611,316,8721,318,4731,321,1821,322,6871,328,7431,330,1111,334,7954,6840.35%

.Alaska710,231710,249714,031722,713731,089736,879736,705737,709741,8944,1850.57%

.Hawaii1,360,3011,360,3011,363,9451,377,8641,391,8201,406,4811,416,3491,425,1571,428,5573,4000.24%

.Maine1,328,3611,328,3641,327,7301,328,2311,328,8951,329,0761,330,7191,329,4531,331,4792,0260.15%

.North Dakota672,591672,591674,526685,476702,087724,019739,904756,835757,9521,1170.15%

.Rhode Island1,052,5671,052,9401,053,3371,052,4511,052,9011,053,0331,054,4801,055,6071,056,4268190.08%

.New Mexico2,059,1792,059,1982,064,7562,077,7562,083,7842,085,1932,083,0242,080,3282,081,0156870.03%

.Kansas2,853,1182,853,1292,858,8502,869,5032,885,2622,892,8212,899,3602,906,7212,907,2895680.02%

.Mississippi2,967,2972,968,1032,970,3222,978,1622,984,9452,990,4822,992,4002,989,3902,988,726-664-0.02%

.Wyoming563,626563,767564,513567,725576,765582,684583,642586,555585,501-1,054-0.18%

.Vermont625,741625,741625,982626,730626,444627,140626,984626,088624,594-1,494-0.24%

.New York19,378,10219,378,11019,402,64019,519,52919,602,76919,673,54619,718,51519,747,18319,745,289-1,894-0.01%

.Pennsylvania12,702,37912,702,85712,712,34312,744,29312,771,85412,781,33812,790,56512,791,90412,784,227-7,677-0.06%

.Connecticut3,574,0973,574,1143,579,8993,589,8933,593,7953,596,0033,591,8733,584,7303,576,452-8,278-0.23%

.West Virginia1,852,9941,853,0111,854,2301,854,9721,856,5601,853,2311,848,5141,841,0531,831,102-9,951-0.54%

.Illinois12,830,63212,831,57412,841,57812,860,01212,870,79812,879,50512,867,54412,839,04712,801,539-37,508-0.29%

Puerto Rico3,725,7893,726,1573,721,5253,678,7323,634,4883,593,0773,534,8743,473,1813,411,307-61,874-1.78%


Suggested Citation:




alpha



United States308,745,538308,758,105309,348,193311,663,358313,998,379316,204,908318,563,456320,896,618323,127,5132015 - 2016%

1.California37,253,95637,254,52237,332,68537,676,86138,011,07438,335,20338,680,81038,993,94039,250,0172,230,8950.70%

2.Texas25,145,56125,146,10025,244,31025,646,38926,071,65526,473,52526,944,75127,429,63927,862,596256,0770.66%

3.Florida18,801,31018,804,59218,849,09819,096,95219,344,15619,582,02219,888,74120,244,91420,612,439432,9571.58%

4.New York19,378,10219,378,11019,402,64019,519,52919,602,76919,673,54619,718,51519,747,18319,745,289367,5251.82%

5.Illinois12,830,63212,831,57412,841,57812,860,01212,870,79812,879,50512,867,54412,839,04712,801,539-1,894-0.01%

6.Pennsylvania12,702,37912,702,85712,712,34312,744,29312,771,85412,781,33812,790,56512,791,90412,784,227-37,508-0.29%

7.Ohio11,536,50411,536,72711,540,98311,544,82411,550,83911,570,02211,594,40811,605,09011,614,373-7,677-0.06%

8.Georgia9,687,6539,688,6809,713,5219,811,6109,914,6689,984,93810,087,23110,199,39810,310,3719,2830.08%

9.North Carolina9,535,4839,535,6889,558,9159,650,9639,746,1759,841,5909,934,39910,035,18610,146,788110,9731.09%

10.Michigan9,883,6409,884,1299,877,4959,876,2139,887,2389,898,9829,915,7679,917,7159,928,300111,6021.11%175,055,9391,241,338

11.New Jersey8,791,8948,791,9538,803,7298,841,2438,873,2118,899,1628,925,0018,935,4218,944,46910,5850.11%78.468927941555.6%

12.Virginia8,001,0248,001,0418,025,7738,110,0358,192,0488,262,6928,317,3728,367,5878,411,8089,0480.10%

13.Washington6,724,5406,724,5456,743,2266,822,5206,895,2266,968,0067,054,1967,160,2907,288,00044,2210.53%

14.Arizona6,392,0176,392,3016,408,3126,467,1636,549,6346,624,6176,719,9936,817,5656,931,071127,7101.78%

15.Massachusetts6,547,6296,547,8136,565,5246,611,9236,658,0086,706,7866,749,9116,784,2406,811,779113,5061.66%

16.Tennessee6,346,1056,346,2986,356,6716,397,6346,454,3066,494,8216,544,6636,595,0566,651,19427,5390.41%

17.Indiana6,483,8026,484,1366,490,5286,516,4806,537,7436,569,1026,595,2336,612,7686,633,05356,1380.85%

18.Missouri5,988,9275,988,9285,996,1186,010,7176,025,4156,042,7116,060,9306,076,2046,093,00020,2850.31%

19.Maryland5,773,5525,773,7865,788,5845,843,6035,889,6515,931,1295,967,2955,994,9836,016,44716,7960.28%

20.Wisconsin5,686,9865,687,2895,690,2635,709,6405,726,1775,742,8545,758,3775,767,8915,778,70821,4640.36%

21.Colorado5,029,1965,029,3245,048,6445,118,3605,189,8675,267,6035,349,6485,448,8195,540,54510,8170.19%

22.Minnesota5,303,9255,303,9245,311,1475,348,5625,380,2855,418,5215,453,1095,482,4355,519,95291,7261.68%

23.South Carolina4,625,3644,625,4104,635,9434,672,6374,720,7604,767,8944,828,4304,894,8344,961,11937,5170.68%

24.Alabama4,779,7364,780,1314,785,4924,799,9184,815,9604,829,4794,843,2144,853,8754,863,30066,2851.35%

25.Louisiana4,533,3724,533,4794,544,9964,575,4044,603,4294,626,4024,647,8804,668,9604,681,6669,4250.19%270,182,05083.6%

26.Kentucky4,339,3674,339,3444,348,6624,369,3544,384,7994,400,4774,413,0574,424,6114,436,97412,7060.27%1,904,40085.4%

27.Oregon3,831,0743,831,0723,838,0483,868,0313,899,1163,925,7513,968,3714,024,6344,093,46512,3630.28%

28.Oklahoma3,751,3513,751,6153,759,6033,786,2743,817,0543,852,4153,877,4993,907,4143,923,56168,8311.71%

29.Connecticut3,574,0973,574,1143,579,8993,589,8933,593,7953,596,0033,591,8733,584,7303,576,45216,1470.41%

30.Iowa3,046,3553,046,8693,050,7383,065,2233,076,3103,091,9303,108,0303,121,9973,134,693-8,278-0.23%

31.Utah2,763,8852,763,8882,775,3262,816,1242,855,7822,902,6632,941,8362,990,6323,051,21712,6960.41%

32.Mississippi2,967,2972,968,1032,970,3222,978,1622,984,9452,990,4822,992,4002,989,3902,988,72660,5852.03%

33.Arkansas2,915,9182,916,0252,921,9952,939,4932,950,6852,958,6632,966,9122,977,8532,988,248-664-0.02%

34.Nevada2,700,5512,700,6912,703,2842,718,3792,752,5652,786,4642,833,0132,883,7582,940,05810,3950.35%

35.Kansas2,853,1182,853,1292,858,8502,869,5032,885,2622,892,8212,899,3602,906,7212,907,28956,3001.95%

36.New Mexico2,059,1792,059,1982,064,7562,077,7562,083,7842,085,1932,083,0242,080,3282,081,0155680.02%

37.Nebraska1,826,3411,826,3341,830,0511,842,2831,855,7251,868,5591,881,1451,893,7651,907,1166870.03%

38.West Virginia1,852,9941,853,0111,854,2301,854,9721,856,5601,853,2311,848,5141,841,0531,831,10213,3510.70%

39.Idaho1,567,5821,567,6501,571,0101,584,1431,595,9111,612,0111,633,5321,652,8281,683,140-9,951-0.54%

40.Hawaii1,360,3011,360,3011,363,9451,377,8641,391,8201,406,4811,416,3491,425,1571,428,55730,3121.83%

41.New Hampshire1,316,4701,316,4611,316,8721,318,4731,321,1821,322,6871,328,7431,330,1111,334,7953,4000.24%

42.Maine1,328,3611,328,3641,327,7301,328,2311,328,8951,329,0761,330,7191,329,4531,331,4794,6840.35%

43.Rhode Island1,052,5671,052,9401,053,3371,052,4511,052,9011,053,0331,054,4801,055,6071,056,4262,0260.15%

44.Montana989,415989,414990,641997,8211,005,1961,014,3141,022,8671,032,0731,042,5208190.08%

45.Delaware897,934897,936899,816907,924916,993925,395934,948944,076952,06510,4471.01%

46.South Dakota814,180814,195816,325824,398834,441844,922852,561857,919865,4547,9890.85%

47.North Dakota672,591672,591674,526685,476702,087724,019739,904756,835757,9527,5350.88%

48.Alaska710,231710,249714,031722,713731,089736,879736,705737,709741,8941,1170.15%

49.District of Columbia601,723601,766605,183620,477635,327649,165659,005670,377681,1704,1850.57%

50.Vermont625,741625,741625,982626,730626,444627,140626,984626,088624,59410,7931.61%

51.Wyoming563,626563,767564,513567,725576,765582,684583,642586,555585,501-1,494-0.24%

-1,054-0.18%

Puerto Rico3,725,7893,726,1573,721,5253,678,7323,634,4883,593,0773,534,8743,473,1813,411,307

table with row headers in column A and column headers in rows 3 through 4. (leading dots indicate sub-parts)-61,874-1.78%



United States308,745,538308,758,105309,348,193311,663,358313,998,379316,204,908318,563,456320,896,618323,127,513

.California37,253,95637,254,52237,332,68537,676,86138,011,07438,335,20338,680,81038,993,94039,250,017

.Texas25,145,56125,146,10025,244,31025,646,38926,071,65526,473,52526,944,75127,429,63927,862,596

.Florida18,801,31018,804,59218,849,09819,096,95219,344,15619,582,02219,888,74120,244,91420,612,439

.New York19,378,10219,378,11019,402,64019,519,52919,602,76919,673,54619,718,51519,747,18319,745,289

.Illinois12,830,63212,831,57412,841,57812,860,01212,870,79812,879,50512,867,54412,839,04712,801,539

.Pennsylvania12,702,37912,702,85712,712,34312,744,29312,771,85412,781,33812,790,56512,791,90412,784,227

.Ohio11,536,50411,536,72711,540,98311,544,82411,550,83911,570,02211,594,40811,605,09011,614,373

.Georgia9,687,6539,688,6809,713,5219,811,6109,914,6689,984,93810,087,23110,199,39810,310,371

.North Carolina9,535,4839,535,6889,558,9159,650,9639,746,1759,841,5909,934,39910,035,18610,146,788

.Michigan9,883,6409,884,1299,877,4959,876,2139,887,2389,898,9829,915,7679,917,7159,928,300

.New Jersey8,791,8948,791,9538,803,7298,841,2438,873,2118,899,1628,925,0018,935,4218,944,469

.Virginia8,001,0248,001,0418,025,7738,110,0358,192,0488,262,6928,317,3728,367,5878,411,808

.Washington6,724,5406,724,5456,743,2266,822,5206,895,2266,968,0067,054,1967,160,2907,288,000

.Arizona6,392,0176,392,3016,408,3126,467,1636,549,6346,624,6176,719,9936,817,5656,931,071

.Massachusetts6,547,6296,547,8136,565,5246,611,9236,658,0086,706,7866,749,9116,784,2406,811,779

.Tennessee6,346,1056,346,2986,356,6716,397,6346,454,3066,494,8216,544,6636,595,0566,651,194

.Indiana6,483,8026,484,1366,490,5286,516,4806,537,7436,569,1026,595,2336,612,7686,633,053

.Missouri5,988,9275,988,9285,996,1186,010,7176,025,4156,042,7116,060,9306,076,2046,093,000

.Maryland5,773,5525,773,7865,788,5845,843,6035,889,6515,931,1295,967,2955,994,9836,016,447

.Wisconsin5,686,9865,687,2895,690,2635,709,6405,726,1775,742,8545,758,3775,767,8915,778,708

.Colorado5,029,1965,029,3245,048,6445,118,3605,189,8675,267,6035,349,6485,448,8195,540,545

.Minnesota5,303,9255,303,9245,311,1475,348,5625,380,2855,418,5215,453,1095,482,4355,519,952

.South Carolina4,625,3644,625,4104,635,9434,672,6374,720,7604,767,8944,828,4304,894,8344,961,119

.Alabama4,779,7364,780,1314,785,4924,799,9184,815,9604,829,4794,843,2144,853,8754,863,300

.Louisiana4,533,3724,533,4794,544,9964,575,4044,603,4294,626,4024,647,8804,668,9604,681,666

.Kentucky4,339,3674,339,3444,348,6624,369,3544,384,7994,400,4774,413,0574,424,6114,436,974

.Oregon3,831,0743,831,0723,838,0483,868,0313,899,1163,925,7513,968,3714,024,6344,093,465

.Oklahoma3,751,3513,751,6153,759,6033,786,2743,817,0543,852,4153,877,4993,907,4143,923,561

.Connecticut3,574,0973,574,1143,579,8993,589,8933,593,7953,596,0033,591,8733,584,7303,576,452

.Iowa3,046,3553,046,8693,050,7383,065,2233,076,3103,091,9303,108,0303,121,9973,134,693

.Utah2,763,8852,763,8882,775,3262,816,1242,855,7822,902,6632,941,8362,990,6323,051,217

.Mississippi2,967,2972,968,1032,970,3222,978,1622,984,9452,990,4822,992,4002,989,3902,988,726

.Arkansas2,915,9182,916,0252,921,9952,939,4932,950,6852,958,6632,966,9122,977,8532,988,248

.Nevada2,700,5512,700,6912,703,2842,718,3792,752,5652,786,4642,833,0132,883,7582,940,058

.Kansas2,853,1182,853,1292,858,8502,869,5032,885,2622,892,8212,899,3602,906,7212,907,289

.New Mexico2,059,1792,059,1982,064,7562,077,7562,083,7842,085,1932,083,0242,080,3282,081,015

.Nebraska1,826,3411,826,3341,830,0511,842,2831,855,7251,868,5591,881,1451,893,7651,907,116

.West Virginia1,852,9941,853,0111,854,2301,854,9721,856,5601,853,2311,848,5141,841,0531,831,102

.Idaho1,567,5821,567,6501,571,0101,584,1431,595,9111,612,0111,633,5321,652,8281,683,140

.Hawaii1,360,3011,360,3011,363,9451,377,8641,391,8201,406,4811,416,3491,425,1571,428,557

.New Hampshire1,316,4701,316,4611,316,8721,318,4731,321,1821,322,6871,328,7431,330,1111,334,795

.Maine1,328,3611,328,3641,327,7301,328,2311,328,8951,329,0761,330,7191,329,4531,331,479

.Rhode Island1,052,5671,052,9401,053,3371,052,4511,052,9011,053,0331,054,4801,055,6071,056,426

.Montana989,415989,414990,641997,8211,005,1961,014,3141,022,8671,032,0731,042,520

.Delaware897,934897,936899,816907,924916,993925,395934,948944,076952,065

.South Dakota814,180814,195816,325824,398834,441844,922852,561857,919865,454

.North Dakota672,591672,591674,526685,476702,087724,019739,904756,835757,952

.Alaska710,231710,249714,031722,713731,089736,879736,705737,709741,894


.Vermont625,741625,741625,982626,730626,444627,140626,984626,088624,594

.Wyoming563,626563,767564,513567,725576,765582,684583,642586,555585,501

Puerto Rico3,725,7893,726,1573,721,5253,678,7323,634,4883,593,0773,534,8743,473,1813,411,307


Suggested Citation:




http://policom.com/

Fastest Growing MSAs1) Miami-Fort Lauderdale-

W Palm Beach2) Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford3) Tampa-St Petersburg-

Clearwater4) Jacksonville5) Cape Coral-Fort Myers6) North Port-Sarasota-

Bradenton7) Lakeland-Winter Haven

http://policom.com/

Florida Nonfarm Employment

Jan 2007 8,037,700Jan 2017 8,546,700 https://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.fl.htm

https://www.bls.gov/eag/eag.fl.htm

Fastest Growing Employment Sectors◦ Construction (5.1%)◦ Leisure and Hospitality (4.6%)◦ Education and Health Services (3.8%)◦ Professional & Business Services (3.7%)◦ Financial Activities (3.5%)◦ Overall Nonfarm (3.1%)

Housing Market Booming◦ Job Growth & Retirement Drivers

Tourism doing great, may slow in growth

Excitement in Tech, Medical, & Corp HQ Relo

Major Economic Forces

Declining vacancyNew construction

Increasing vacancyNew construction

Increasing vacancyMore completions

Declining vacancyNo new construction

Real Estate Market Cycle

Source: Mueller, 1995

Florida Office

CBRE Research

Florida Retail

CBRE Research

Florida Industrial

CBRE Research

CBRE Research

Based on properties > $2.5m

Florida Commercial Sales Volume

www.rcanalytics.com

http://www.rcanalytics.com/Sheet1

201220132014201520162017

Vol ($m)# propsVol ($m)# propsVol ($m)# propsVol ($m)# propsVol ($m)# propsVol ($m)# props

Miami/So Fla9,46866610,22276514,41899118,6801,22118,4889502,935179

Orlando2,5482105,1052934,4672887,4483865,73436396253

Tampa3,1892463,2312464,8583145,9374105,9773661,00854

Jacksonville1,2421281,7311342,6601732,0101702,13215754930

Sarasota607544495166878736661,00785707

Naples4433166148396448845551444746

Florida Panhandle3925457466785785907950560445

Fort Myers3134537060509577728081367548

Brevard Co1742535638364385253952543755

All Others1,3741812,1032302,7602643,0172472,74224135232

$19,7501,640$24,8021,931$31,8852,325$40,5992,753$38,4372,3766,123379

10 Year US Treasury Rate

http://www.multpl.com/10-year-treasury-rate

http://www.multpl.com/10-year-treasury-rate

Source: Real Capital Analytics

Can Spread Absorb Rising Rates?

Initial Evidence Says Yes

Return of “Mom and Pop” Expansions◦ Group most likely to be happy about Trump

Retirement STILL drives Florida◦ Wealth Effect is very possible

Strong dollar, foreign capital controls, visa issues could make development difficult (…or not??)

We are UNDERSUPPLIED, development can/should resume

Opportunities in Florida Commercial Real Estate in 2017?

Ralston’s “Site in Search of User” Rules1) Aggregation

• Contiguous or adjacent user combines current space with subject resulting in synergy … increased value

2) Gap analysis – “who is missing”• Define market area & trade area

• “Where is Walmart” also where are the grocery stores• Trade area is probably geography that contains about 20,000 population

• Benchmark Demographics • RetailMarket Place Profile report • Who is represented in market area but not trade area

3) “Trading Places” ... tenants already in market/trade area • With inferior site characteristics (visibility, access, etc.)• Need different building characteristics ... larger/smaller space, less

bay depth/more width• Financial

• Lower rent/occupancy cost• Potential owner vs tenant (in some situations)

Gary Ralston, CCIM, SIOR, CPM, CRE, CLS, CDP, CRX, FRICS863-877-2828 / [email protected]

2017 Market Forecast

Source: Reis

Sustaining momentum but taking nothing for granted 2015Given

Given the way the Superbowl was won , playing smart offense and great defense will be appropriate for the balance of 2016

Recovery from the Recovery 2014

2017

Source: Reis

IN BRIDGE ,YOU HAVE WILD CARDS, CALLED “ TRUMP CARDS” .HOWEVER , IN BRIDGE , THE TRUMP CARDS ARE REALLY WILD BECAUSE THEY CHANGE FROM HAND TO HAND DEPENDING ON THE BIDDING.

• Source :Bridge for Dummies , Definition of a Trump.

TAILWINDS

Source: Reis

• Election: Uncertainty to Certainty – To A Point• Handoff From Monetary to Fiscal Policy• Reduced/Softer Regulatory Environment• Reduced Taxes• Infrastructure Investment• Positive Employment - Average 2.5 Million Per Year

For The Last Few Years ( despite monthly aberrations)• GDP

HEADWINDS

Source: Reis

• Tumultuous Volatile Market-Tapering Sale/Leasing Volumes

• Trade Wars- Considered the Biggest Threat• Event Risk : Wars/ Political Unrest• Sovereign Debt Crisis – Asia /Europe (see

Italy) – Deflation/ • Interest Rate Rising ( Too Fast?)• Commodity Energy Bust• FASB/IASB 2018

Percentage of U.S. Working-Age Population Participating in Labor Force,

1950-2020

Age of U.S Working Population, by Cohort and Year

Source: Reis

MAJOR DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFTS

Trends

Q4 Effective Rent Growth

.4%

Q4 Asking Rent Growth

.3 %

2017Trends

Office:Vacancy - 15.8%Rent - 2.4%

Retail:Vacancy – 10 % 100 ptsRent- 1.6%

Multi-Family:Vacancy - 4.7 500 ptsRent - 3.7%

Industrial:Vacancy -7.9% 300 ptsRent - 2.6%

Decreasing Office Space Omni Channel

Supply Chain Last M ile Surge in Multi-Family

Systemic Shifts-Manifesting

U.S. Real Estate Returns and Economic Growth

Emerging Trend Barometer 2017

Importance on Issues for Real Estate in 2017

Apartments

Apartments – Vacancy & Rent TrendsMetro 2016 Vacancy 2017 Projected

Vacancy2016 Asking Rent 2017 Projected

Asking Rent

United State 4.2 4.7 $1,308 $1,354 South Atlantic

Region 4.6 5.1 $1,146 $1,187Orlando 4.6 5.1 $1,068 $1,110Tampa 4.0 4.1 $1,015 $1,053

Apartments

• National vacancies remained flat at 4.2 percent for the last three quarters of 2016.

• On a year-over-year basis, asking rents grew by 3.7%, and effective rents grew by 3.6%.

• In 2015 cyclical highs, both asking and effective rents rose by 5.8 percent.

Office

Office – Vacancy & Rent TrendsMetro 2016 Vacancy 2017 Projected


Asking Rent

United State 15.8 15.8 $31.97 $32.75 South Atlantic

Region 16.1 16.1 $28.15 $28.69Orlando 14.3 14.4 $22.60 $23.02Tampa 18.3 18.4 $22.79 $23.26

Office• Year-over-year, vacancies fell by 40 basis points, which is the

second largest decline in vacancies since the recovery began in 2011.

• On a year over year basis, asking and effective rents rose by 2.3 and 2.4 percent, markedly weaker than the low to mid-3’s that the sector was able to pull during both 2014 and 2015.

• It is a rather imprecise term, but the office sector performed “decently” in 2016.

Retail

Retail – Vacancy & Rent TrendsMetro 2016 Vacancy 2017 Projected


Asking Rent



Retail• Mall vacancies were flat year-over-year at 7.8 percent.

• Asking and effective rents rose by only 1.8 and 1.9 percent this year – a decline relative to 2015’s 2.1 and 2.2 percent.

• Regional mall asking rents grew by a respectable 2.0 percent, 20 basis points slower than 2015’s comparable figure.

• Brick and mortar vacancies are expected to rise modestly, from its current 9.9 percent, to 10.1 percent by the end of 2017.

Industrial

Industrial – Vacancy & Rent TrendsMetro 2016 Vacancy 2017 Projected


Asking Rent



Industrial

• Vacancies fell by 30 basis points over the year, an impressive accomplishment given that 69.8 million square feet of new warehouse/distribution space were delivered over the course of the year.

• Effective rents rose by 0.9 percent in the fourth quarter, pushing the overall annual effective rent increase to 2.4 percent.

US CAPITAL TRENDS | THE BIG PICTURE

Commercial property transaction volume in the U.S. fell 11%in 2016 on sales of $489b. A 30% YOY decline in portfolio and entity-level transactions explains the drop, with single asset sales almost unchanged. A preliminary run of the Moody’s/RCA CPPI shows prices climbed 9% in 2016.

COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE

Source: Reis

• Property Type Outlook : More Defensive

• Industrial Whse/Dist. – E Commerce, Omni Channel , Last Mile to Consumer.

• Apartments – Continue to Grow At A Lower Rate.• Office - Depends on Employment , Core Very Pricey –

Adaptive Reuse in Surburbs ( not a misspell)• Retail : Grocery Anchored , High End Low End.

Trends

• Increased Investment & Capitol Flows• Continued Low Supply• Increased Appetite for Risk

– Secondary Markets– Value Add– Adaptive Reuse

• Investors to Follow Jobs & People

Niche Plays

Source: Reis

• Medical Office• Senior Living• Mixed Use Lifestyle• Mixed Use Urban/Exurban• Data Center- Server vs Cloud• Student Housing

Make sure you have a Trump Card.

Source: Reis

Approaching the Redline

Dr. Mark G. DotzourCollege Station, Texas

[email protected]

RedlineA set amount of RPMs which your engine can put out before you pretty much blow it up. This is usually where the numbers on your tachometer turn red.-Urban Dictionary

The Economy in 2006

The Economy in 2008

The Economy in 2009

The Economy in 2017

• Creates jobs• Labor shortage • Wage increases• Higher inflation• Higher interest rates

Job Openings in AmericaLooking for Workers

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics BLS release on Dec. 7, 2016

Total Job Openings 5,534,000

Construction 205,000

Manufacturing 322,000

Trade, Transportation, Utilities 1,048,000

Professional & Business Services 926,000

Education & Health Care 1,205,000

Leisure & Hospitality 700,000

Government 512,000

The Economy in 2017

“I would say at this point, fiscal policy is not obviously needed to provide stimulus to help us get back to full employment.”

-Janet Yellen, Chair of the Federal Reserve BankWSJ Dec 16, 2016

Key Issues in 2017:Economic Strength

• Economy still has a lot of energy left• Fed wants to raise interest rates making dollar

stronger• Oil and gas industries are rebounding

Key Issues in 2017:Economic Strength

• New bull market for single-family housing

Pew Survey on HousingDecember, 2016

“A solid majority (72%) of renters say they would like to buy a home in the future.”

Source: Pew Research Center December 15, 2016In a Recovering Market, Homeownership Rates…..

U.S. Home Purchase Sentiment IndexFannie Mae National Housing Survey

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

Mar

-11

Jun-

11

Sep-

11

Dec-

11

Mar

-12

Jun-

12

Sep-

12

Dec-

12

Mar

-13

Jun-

13

Sep-

13

Dec-

13

Mar

-14

Jun-

14

Sep-

14

Dec-

14

Mar

-15

Jun-

15

Sep-

15

Dec-

15

Mar

-16

Jun-

16

Sep-

16

Dec-

16

The Cost of Mortgage Regulation

“Since the housing crash, borrowers with excellent credit scores have increasingly dominated the market and lending to those with low credit scores has all but ceased.”

Source: Pew Research Center December 15, 2016In a Recovering Market, Homeownership Rates…..

Student Loans a Big Problem

“Analysis of 1000 colleges and trade schools showed that at least half of the students had defaulted or failed to pay down at least $1 on their debt within the past seven years.”

“Repayment rates are getting worse.”

Source: WSJ 1/19/17

Key Issues in 2017:Fiscal Policy

• Reduced regulation good for many industries• Tax reform bullish for jobs, but unlikely to

happen• Infrastructure spending unlikely to happen

either• Can’t pay for tax cuts or bridges without a

border adjustment or getting rid of loopholes

Key Issues in 2017:Interest Rates

• Labor shortage could create wage inflation• Stronger US dollar will make all imports

cheaper and offset inflation• Slower apartment rent growth with reduce

inflation pressure• 10-Year Treasury and cap rates unlikely to

increase very much in 2017

U.S. Leading Index of Economic Indicators

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Perc

ent

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - FRED

Lending Index for the U.S.

Source: The Conference Board

Consumer Confidence Index

30405060708090

100110120130140150

Aug-

00Fe

b-01

Aug-

01Fe

b-02

Aug-

02Fe

b-03

Aug-

03Fe

b-04

Aug-

04Fe

b-05

Aug-

05Fe

b-06

Aug-

06Fe

b-07

Aug-

07Fe

b-08

Aug-

08Fe

b-09

Aug-

09Fe

b-10

Aug-

10Fe

b-11

Aug-

11Fe

b-12

Aug-

12Fe

b-13

Aug-

13Fe

b-14

Aug-

14Fe

b-15

Aug-

15Fe

b-16

Aug-

16Fe

b-17

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Chan

ge, T

hous

ands

of P

erso

ns

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis - FRED

All Employees: Total Nonfarm Payrolls

New Jobs Created Each Month

Civilian Unemployment Rate

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Jan-50 Sep-59 May-69 Jan-79 Sep-88 May-98 Jan-08

Perc

ent

Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Civilian Unemployment Rate

Corporate ProfitsRebounding

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800Ja

n-90

Jan-

92

Jan-

94

Jan-

96

Jan-

98

Jan-

00

Jan-

02

Jan-

04

Jan-

06

Jan-

08

Jan-

10

Jan-

12

Jan-

14

Jan-

16

Billi

ons o

f Dol

lars

Source: U.S.Dept. of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Corporate Profits After Tax with Inventory Valuation Adjustment (IVA) and Capital Consumption Adjustment

Small Business Outlook“Planning To Hire People In The Next Three Months”

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25O

ct-9

8

Jul-9

9

Apr-

00

Jan-

01

Oct

-01

Jul-0

2

Apr-

03

Jan-

04

Oct

-04

Jul-0

5

Apr-

06

Jan-

07

Oct

-07

Jul-0

8

Apr-

09

Jan-

10

Oct

-10

Jul-1

1

Apr-

12

Jan-

13

Oct

-13

Jul-1

4

Apr-

15

Jan-

16

Net

% o

f Res

pond

ents

Source: National Federation of Independent Business

Planning to Hire People in the Next Three Months

U.S. Job Creation

• Sprint will move thousands of jobs back to the US. Soft-Bank will invest $50 billion and create 50,000 jobs. Dec29

• Chrysler announced it will invest $1 billion in two existing plants and create 2,000 new jobs. Jan9

• Amazon said it will create more than 100,000 full time jobs in the US in the next 18 months. Jan13

U.S. Job Creation

• Taiwanese company Foxconn is considering building TVs in America under the Sharp brand.

• Walmart plans to add 100,000 jobs this year.• Hyundai will invest an additional $3.1 billion in

existing US plants.• GM plans to invest $1 billion in US plants.

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Perc

ent C

hang

e fr

om Y

ear A

go

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis/US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Average Hourly Earnings of All Employees: Total Private

Average Hourly EarningsAnnual Rate of Change

Inflation Rate:CPI Remains Low Despite Food/Fuel

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Jan-20 Jul-34 Jan-49 Jul-63 Jan-78 Jul-92 Jan-07

Perc

ent C

hg. F

rom

Year

Ago

Source: U.S. Dept. of Labor: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items

University of MichiganInflation Expectations Survey

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Jan-78 May-83 Sep-88 Jan-94 May-99 Sep-04 Jan-10 May-15

Perc

ent

Source: Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan

University of Michigan Inflation Expectation©

What Can Keep Inflation in Check?

Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150Ja

n-75

Feb-

81

Mar

-87

Apr-

93

May

-99

Jun-

05

Jul-1

1

Inde

x Mar

197

3=10

0

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index: Major Currencies

Energy Wars$65 is a “Fair Price”

OPEC president Mohammed bin Saleh al-Sada said a minimum price of $65 a barrel is “badly needed at the moment.” He

cautioned that the security of future supplies is as risk because of the price slump that has squeezed oil producers

since 2014.

Source: Associated Press 5/24/16

Energy WarsThousands of Indian workers in Saudi Arabia haven’t been paid for months, prompting India’s government to hand out food to hungry workers.

Assisting 10,000 Indian workers who New Delhi says are without a job, pay and food. Some workers for Saudi Oger report they haven’t been paid in seven months.

Source: WSJ August 1, 2016

Signs of Life in the U.S.

• EOG bought properties in the Permian Basin that will yield 1740 “premium drilling locations.

• They are getting the extra buzz by drilling laterals that are twice as long. One well will produce a lot of oil!

• EOG defines a premium drilling location as one that will offer an after-tax IRR of at least 30% with oil at $40 per barrel.

• That return could be as high as 60% if oil gets to $50 per barrel.

The Investment Climate for Real Estate

• U.S. college endowments lost 1.9 percent for the year ended June 30, 2016.

• In the prior 12 months, they saw an average gain of 2.4 percent.

• The 10-year average fell to 5 percent.• This is well below the median 7.4 percent return

they expect to earn over time.

Poor performance was attributed to international equities, energy and natural resources, commodities and hedge funds. Hedge funds were among the worst performers with a 4 percent loss.

Source: Bloomberg 1/30/2017

Best performers for endowments:

Private equity real estate with 7.1 percent returnPrivate equity investments with 4.5 percent returnFixed income bonds with 3.6 percent return.

Source: Bloomberg 1/30/2017

The Investment Climate for Real Estate

Lay of the Land ConferenceOrlando, FLA

March 17, 2017

“The Lay of the LandInside the Beltway”

Russell W. RiggsNAR/RLI Government Affairs Liaison

From this list of issues – what are the top 3 issues you think President Trump and Congress should be addressing?

-Health care-Immigration-Tax Reform-Energy Independence-Environmental Protection-Deregulation-Voter Fraud-Balanced Budget-Housing-Foreign Affairs

Greetings from Washington, DC

Five Square Miles Surrounded by

REALITY!

Government Affairs and Advocacy: Important Member Benefit

National Assoc. of Realtors represents Realtors and property owners Lobbyists, research, legislative and

regulatory analysts RPAC - Largest in direct and indirect

contributions Realtors Land Institute – Specialize in

land sales

The New Reality of Washington, DC

• New Administration

• New Congress - Polarized with Small Majorities

• Executive Order Governance

• Deregulatory Environment

• Constrained Governmental Budgets

• Lack of Faith in National Institutions

Legislative and Regulatory Issues of Concern

Clean Water Act Update National Flood Insurance Program Unmanned Aerial Vehicles Endangered Species Act Tax Reform Immigration Conservation easements/land protections/

recreational lands

Clean Water Act Jurisdiction Over U.S. Waters

CWA Regulates “Navigable" waters –EPA/Corps want to regulate more waters (All waters!) Rule was finalized – Never Implemented. Included More Waters Excluded from the CWA. Rule Was Stayed by the Courts. Recent Executive Order would Rescind and

Replace. “Only Congress Can Decide”.

National Flood Insurance Program

NFIP expires in Sept. 2017. $24 billion in debt Homeowners Flood Insurance Affordability

Act – Puts program on gradual glide path to actuarial soundness and fiscal solvency, improves appeals process, provides map $$. Discussions already underway to

reauthorize.

Unmanned Aerial Systems (Drones) Unmanned Aerial Systems (UASs) are allowed for

commercial purposes.

Growing Demand – UASs can survey property, manage crops or help sell land.

FAA responsible for integrating UASs into airspace.

Address Safety National Security Privacy.

FAA promulgated rules – No pilot’s license required.

Future rules on Beyond Line of Sight and Crowds.

Endangered Species Act (ESA)

Promote improvements that protect species and encourage responsible economic development.

Congress is interested in modernizing and updating

Possible Improvements under consideration: Better science Better cost/benefit analysis Better economic impact analysis Relax critical habitat restrictions Incentivize property owners – carrots not

sticks

Tax Reform Discussions Underway

MID, 1031s, etc – All Are on the Table. 1031 – Allows taxpayers to exchange

property for like-kind property, to diversify or consolidate holdings, and to transition to meet changing business or personal needs. On-going education in Congress on the

importance of 1031s. Discussions on-going - Changes Possible in

2017.

QUESTIONS?

Contact Information:Russell W. Riggs

NAR/RLI Govt. Affairs Liaison202-383-1259

[email protected]

Dean Saunders, ALC, CCIM

“It’s tangible, it’s solid, it’s beautiful. It’s artistic, from my standpoint, and I just love real estate.”

-Donald Trump

“It is a comfortable feeling to know that you stand on your own ground. Land is about the only thing that can't fly away.”

-Anthony Trollope, English novelist of the Victorian era

Cropland

Pasture

• Total Number of Parcels: 10,198,457

• Total Just Value: $2,265,275,587*-Up 9%

• *2016 FDOR tax roll

Florida: The Big Picture

• Low interest rates• Forces new paradigm – lower returns• Investors seeking to “place” capital

• Land is considered “safe” – a tangible asset

• World Turmoil leads to more Capital flow into US

• Migration to Florida• 1000+ new people per day• Growth 2.3 times rate of US growth• Growing by more people than California

• More people means demand for land

Land – Supply & Demand

• FL, CA, TX• 27% of US population• 48% of US growth

• FL – Eighth most densely populated State vs supply of developed land• Land available• Strong demand

Land – Supply & Demand

• The most significant sale in 2016 was the Claw Forestry sale to Molpus Timberland Investment which involved 87,000 acres:• 29K in FL and 58k in GA which sold for

$1,465/acre• $619/acre attributable to the bare land

Notable Sales

Florida is not just any place.It is one of the largest and fastest-growing parts of

the country, one of the world’s most popular destinations.It is many things to many people. Drawing jet-setters

and migrant laborers, it is home to the idle rich, the grindingly poor, and quite a few of the in-betweens.

Florida is a state of the Union. It is also a state of mind.

Every snowstorm in Chicago or Buffalo makes more people dream about the Sunshine State. They flee south for vacations and plan for retirement. People do things in Florida they would never think of trying in the staid elsewhere. Architecture bristles with fantasy. Tourists dress in eye-blinding fashions. Prim and proper people shed almost all their clothes in the most public places.

Fifty Feet in Paradise

Its is a mecca, a magnet for dreamers.Take the dreams, the influx of newcomer, and money,

money, money. Mix them together and you have a boom.Ask an old-time Floridian about The Boom and his

mind will go back to the 1920s. He’ll snort derisively about peddlers of swampland and the suckers who bought it, about people chasing after easy money until they lost it all.

During those heady, roaring years, speculators dealt in Florida property just as they did in stocks-with the same ultimate results. The collapse of the boom predated and presaged the stock-market crash by three years and should have served as a word to the wise-but it didn’t.


Afterward, people preferred to forget it. They didn’t want to be reminded of their follies. But the physical evidence remained, to leap out at the eye in multitudes of stuccoed buildings with red tile roofs on streets with grandiose Spanish, Tahitian, or Venetian names.

The 1920s boom was one of the episodic madnessesin history so concentrated and so colorful as to erase the memory of similar but less starling events. This is unfortunate because it consigns the madness merely to the past, whereas nothing is more certain than that it shall happen again.

Far from being an isolated incident, it is in fact the basic pattern of Florida’s growth. (Listen closely and you will hear a chorus in the background, like a Vachel Lindsay poem, with a boom, Boom, BOOM!)


The Sunshine State has never been a place for slow-paced growth or quiet processes of augmentation. It has, rather, followed cycle after cycle of hopes, hypes, dizziness, collapse, forgetfulness, and rebirth.

Each stage has its distinctive personality: the pioneer, the visionary, the promoter, thespeculator, the fast-buck artist, the victim, the rediscoverer. Taken together, they are the recurrent castof characters parading across the Florida scene, from buck-skin times to bikini days.

The booms have focused on many different things. There have been cotton crazes and mulberrymanias and orange fevers. Each generation has had its own sure way of squeezing easy money out ofFlorida.


At the base of all of them has been the land. In the beginning, settlers bought it in 640-acre sectionsor 160-acre quarters. In the age of the robber barons it was gobbled up in million-acre parcels. By the Roaring Twenties it had become so precious that speculators pinned their hopes on footage. A building lot of fifty feet in paradise was the irresistible commodity of 1925. There were not enough of them high and dry to go around, so swamps and lowlands became negotiable-particularly with those who bought sight-unseen.

They wound up sharing the sentiments of the rueful mid-westerner who surveyed his purchase and remarked that he had never bought land by the gallon before.


Still they came and bought, and the sounds emanating from Florida were two:

Boom!!POP!!

For the booms were invariably punctuated by the revenge of God, man, and Mammon: hurricane,frost, yellow fever, insect plague, war, and financial panic.

“When you’re hot, you’re hot. When you’re not, you’re not” would be a fitting motto to adopt for the state seal.

It used to take a long time to forget the busts. They were memorable. One boom per generation was about par for the course-it took that long for the wariness to recede. But things have speeded up: now three or four can be crammed into the same period of time.


This has led to cynicism on the part of the long-time observers.

One bit of conventional wisdom holds, “If a man comes to Florida poor, he stays poor. If he comes rich and stays long enough, he gets poor.”

But that is phrasing it too dismally. Some of the poor have become rich and some of the rich have grown richer. They too figure in the kaleidoscopically changing pattern of dreamers and doers, millionaires and malefactors, salesman and scamps.


They have given Florida a history as colorful as its foliage, peopled by characters as exotic as its wildlife. A veritable zoo of human types-bulls and bears, foxes and peacocks, skunks, and snakes-fill its pages.

It is a cash-encrusted tale all the way back to the Spanish conquistadores. Once Florida went on the dollar standard, it really got in high gear.


“There have been few things in my life which have had a more genial effect on my mind than the possession of a piece of land.”

-Harriet Martineau, British social theorist, and Whig writer

• Ranch prices have stabilized in 2016 $3287 per acre.

• 10% increase in value in the last three years, slight decrease in 2016

Ranch/ Recreation

• Same number of transactions (15), but less than half (29,533 acres), of the acreage of 2015 (62,855 acres).

• Average size of transaction just under 2,000 acres. Last year was just over 4,100 acres.

• Cattle prices are down and impacting demand for ranches.

• Interest in recreational (hunting) tracts is up.

• I anticipate more 1,031 exchanges as ranches selling for residential development look for replacement properties.

Ranch/ Recreation

“Real estate is an imperishable asset, ever increasing in value. It is the most solid

security that human ingenuity has devised. It is the basis of all security and about the

only indestructible security.”

–Russel Sage, American Financier, and Politician

• Continues to be dominated by Institutional Investors• Investors want 5% cap rate, calculated on farmable

acreage• We are seeing other growers consolidate acreage

Homestead• Tropical fruit and vegetables predominately• Range of values $21,000/acre to $38,000/acre• Three of the sale were remainder right sales

Everglades Agricultural Area• South of Lake Okeechobee• Organic Soils• $9,000 - $12,000/acre• Six farms total of 3,800 acres

Cropland

Southwest Florida• Lease rate $400 - $500• $9,000 - $13,000/acre sale value

Hillsborough• Predominately strawberry sales• $24,000/acre – $30,000/acre• Industrial and housing development encroaching and

forcing growers further south than Plant City

• One large farmer bought south county land for organic farm

Cropland

“A man complained that on his way home to dinner he had every day to

pass through that long field of his neighbor's. I advised him to buy it, and

it would never seem long again.”

-Ralph Waldo Emerson

• The State is not buying land, only conservation easements. Nine were Rural and Family Land Protection Program (RLFPP) easements. Three Board of Trustees and one water management district.

• The USDA closed wetland reserve easements and partnered with Miami- Dade on four deals and the Florida Department of Agriculture on two.

• Collaboration among agencies is important, leveraging financial resources.

• Four deals done by Miami-Dade at a price of $17,500 per acre ensuring agriculture remains in Homestead. Three of these subsequently sold their remainder rights to other farmers.

Conservation

• Pasco County transaction – Drawing a line in the sand between development and conservation• Sold for over $9,700/acre.

• The State and SWFWMD are actively surplusing land. Proceeds must stay in conservation.

• Legislative increased funds last year for RFLPP from $11 million to $35 million. Didn’t do much at all for Amendment 1.• Question: What will the legislature do this year?

What do the new President and Congress do for Conservation funding?

Conservation

• Thee large dollar transaction in Miami-Dade ($27,000 +/-per acre) farm land in Homestead area.

• SWFWMD sold a surplus trust and held back a conservation easement.

• A 1088 ranch in Manatee County sold the remainder right simultaneously with closing on a CE with SWFWMD.

• Neighbors can and will pay more than others.• Polk county ranch with ESLA sold above market.

• Generally around 50% at fair market value but not always especially if around development areas.

Remainder Right Sales

“Tough times don't last, tough people do, remember?”

-Gregory Peck, American Actor

• Average price $7,000 per gross acre• Range $6,000/acre to $8,500/acre depends on quality

and real estate value

• Total acreage reduced by 20% (116,000)

Citrus

Acres of Citrus in Florida

• Total production keeps coming down from 169,700 to 67,000 million boxes, a 61% decline

Citrus

• Production per acre 10 years ago 342 to 163 boxes/acre today, a 52% decline• Production decline greater than acreage decline

Citrus

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Production - Boxes Per Acre

All Round Oranges - Boxes per Acre All Grapefruit - Boxes Per Acre

• Per capita consumption of juice continues to decline

• Production expenses at all time high

• How long can the infrastructure remain profitable?

• Small growers are getting out • Less consolidation of larger growers

Citrus

• Fruit prices are increasing• Both supply and demand are decreasing

• Less people buying due to health and price of fruit

Citrus

• Continue to see citrus grow to other agricultural uses: blueberries, row crops, and vegetables• Average price to transition to other

agricultural use between $3,800 to $16,000/acre, depending on crop and infrastructure

• Transitioning to commercial, residential, and solar farms• $5,500 to over $130,000/acre

Citrus Transitional

“Ninety percent of all millionaires become so through owning real estate. More money has been made in real estate than in all industrial investments combined. The wise young man or wage earner of today invests his money in real estate.”

- Andrew Carnegie, billionaire industrialist

• The number of timberland sales and total acres sold was down in 2016• We don't believe this is due to a flagging

interest in FL timberland, rather just a result of not many timberland tracts being offered for sale.

• Strong interest in timberland in FL from REIT’s, TIMO’s• Other private investors with billions of $ still

allocated to this asset needing placement.

Timberland

• Gross sales price for all sales ranged from $1,465 to $2,448/acre with an average sales price of $1,950/acre• Significantly higher than the 2015 average of

$1,464/acre

• Overall, we believe timberland prices have held fairly steady in 2016 and would expect pure timberland tracts to sell between $1,000 to $1,800 per acre with $600 to $1,000/acre attributable to the bare land.

Timberland

• Timber stumpage prices were strong for most of 2016 before dipping somewhat in the last half of the year.

• We expect stumpage prices to remain steady or even rebound in 2017 on the strength of increasing housing starts, strong SE pulp and paper market, and overall increasing strength of the US economy.

• Going forward into the rest of 2017, we believe timberland prices will remain strong and there will continue to be significant investor interest in this asset class.

Timberland

“Buy on the fringe and wait. Buy land near a growing city! Buy real estate when other people want to sell. Hold what you buy!”

- John Jacob Astor, real estate and business mogul

Entitled Lands & Lots Bullet Points

• 1,000 people a day are moving to Florida.

• Competition is high for well positioned properties between users/developers/investors.

Residential

• The housing market is healthy and is growing at a steady rate.

Residential

• Median home prices increased 10.1% in 2016

• The average acre price for entitled lands in 11 central Florida counties was $47,667.

• The three leading counties were Sarasota, Orange and Manatee.

• The average finished lot prices in 8 central Florida counties was $56,520.

• Manatee County had the highest lot prices.

Residential

Predictions for 2017:

• Home prices will increase 3-5% for 2017

• According to the Florida Association of Realtors there is a 4 month supply of existing inventory.

• Demand for finished lots and entitled lands will increase for 2017

Residential

Economic Drivers:

• Demand is strong around the economic bases of Orlando and Tampa. The demand in Tampa is spilling northward into Pasco County.

• The completion of the Western Beltway (SR 429) around Orlando is opening up development and speculation for land in Western Orange and Eastern Lake Counties.

• There is starting to be demand for properties around the Florida Polytechnic University and the proposed D.O.T. test facility near Auburndale

Residential

2013Percentage of Properties

Saunders Website Interest Hits

2016Percentage of Properties

Outlook for 2017

• Housing demand will increase land values

• Commercial demand will follow housing

• Ranch and Timber market will stabilize

• Citrus downward pressure on price and productivity will affect demand…

Outlook for 2017

• Foreign capital looking for deals in Florida

• Solar power developers fervently looking for sites

• Farmland should remain relatively stable depending on commodity prices

“A person who won't read has no advantage over one who can't read.”

-Mark Twain

“Progress always involves risks. You can't steal second base and keep your foot on

first.-Robert Quillen, an American journalist and humorist

Slide Number 1Slide Number 2Welcome�Lay Of The Land Conference 2017�Florida �Commercial Update�Slide Number 5Slide Number 6Slide Number 7Slide Number 8Slide Number 9Slide Number 10Slide Number 11Slide Number 12Slide Number 13Slide Number 14Slide Number 15Slide Number 16Slide Number 17Slide Number 18Slide Number 19Slide Number 20Slide Number 21Slide Number 22Slide Number 23Slide Number 24Slide Number 25Slide Number 26Slide Number 27Slide Number 28Slide Number 29Ralston’s “Site in Search of User” RulesSlide Number 312017 Market Forecast2017 TAILWINDSHEADWINDSPercentage of U.S. Working-Age Population Participating in Labor Force, 1950-2020Age of U.S Working Population, by Cohort and YearSlide Number 38Slide Number 39TrendsSlide Number 41U.S. Real Estate Returns and Economic GrowthEmerging Trend Barometer 2017Importance on Issues for Real Estate in 2017ApartmentsApartments – Vacancy & Rent TrendsApartmentsOfficeOffice – Vacancy & Rent TrendsOfficeRetailRetail – Vacancy & Rent TrendsRetailIndustrialIndustrial – Vacancy & Rent TrendsIndustrialUS CAPITAL TRENDS | THE BIG PICTURESlide Number 58Slide Number 59Slide Number 60COMMERCIAL RE

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THANK YOU TO OUR SPONSORS! - Saunders Real Estate · US CAPITAL TRENDS | THE BIG PICTURE. Commercial property transaction volume in the U.S. fell 11%in 2016 on sales of $489b. A 30%