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Nhm 2 GVHD: H Thy i1
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S lc v CA
Din bin CA
xut gii php
Cn cn vng lai (CA)
Nguyn nhn thm ht CA
Chnh sch CP5/4/2012 2 Thm ht cn cn vng lai
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Khi nim Kt cu Nhn t tc ng5/4/2012 3 Thm ht cn cn vng lai
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5/4/2012
4
Thm ht cn cn vng lai
LOGO Xut khu Nhp khu Vn ti Du lch Cc dch v khc
1. Cn cn thng mi4. Cn cn chuyn giao vng lai mt Qu tng chiu Vin
tr khnghon li Chuyn tin5/4/2012
2. Cn cn dch v 3. Cn cn thu nhp
Kiu hi Thu nhp t u tThm ht cn cn vng lai
5
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T gi
Cn cn vng lai
Ro cn thng mi
Lm pht5/4/2012 6 Thm ht cn cn vng lai
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Thm ht CA ngy cng rng ra T 2000 n nay CA ln u tin thng d Nm 1999
Thm ht CA vi mc ngy cng ln Nm 1993 Thm ht CA gim mnh
Nm 19895/4/2012 7 Thm ht cn cn vng lai
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Biu 1. Cn cn thng mi, cn cn vng lai, cn cn thanh ton giai on
2000 - 2010
5/4/2012
Ngun: Tng 8cc Thng k
Thm ht cn cn vng lai
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Biu 1. Cc cu phn trong Cn cn vng lai ca Vit Nam giai on 1997
-2008
Ngun: Tng hp t CEIC Database5/4/2012 9 Thm ht cn cn vng lai
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Chnh sch t giTng trng nng ca th trng chng khon (2006-2008)Thm ht
ngn sch NN
S mt cn i gia u t v tit kim
5/4/2012
10
Thm ht cn cn vng lai
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Bng 1. T l tit kim v u t so vi GDP ca Vit Nam giai on 1999-2009
v d bo nm 2010NmGDP (T USD u t/GD P (%) Tit kim/ GDP (% 199 9 200 0
200 1 200 2 200 3 200 4 200 5 200 6 200 7 200 8 200 9 201 0f
94.0 28.7 31.2 32.7 35.1 39.6 45.5 52.9 60.9 71.1 89.4 101 5
27.6 29.6 31.2 33.2 35.4 35.5 35.6 36.8 41.6 41.5 42.4 46.1
32.1 31.7 33.2 32
30.6 32
34.5 36.5 31.8 30.8 25.1 26.8
Ngun: Tng hp t IMF Country Report 09/110 (tr.24), Moodys
Investors ServiceGlobal Credit Research, May 20105/4/2012 11
Thm ht cn cn vng lai
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Chnh sch t gi c coi l c nh linh hot ca Vit Nam gn vi ng la M. T
gi danh ngha USD/VND c xu hng tng ln theo thi gian nhng t gi thc
RER v REER c xu hng gim dn trong nhng nm gn y lm gim sc cnh tranh v
gi hng ha Vit Nam trn th trng th gii.5/4/2012 12 Thm ht cn cn vng
lai
LOGO Biu 2: T gi thc song phng, a phng v t l xut khu so vi nhp
khu (X/M) ca VN trong thi gian qua
5/4/2012
Ngun: Tnh ton da trn s liu ca CEIC Database cn vng lai Thm ht cn
13
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Dng vn u t gin tip u t vo th trng chng khonChnh lch li sut gia
tri phiu chnh ph VN vi cc nc khc5/4/2012 14
Dng vn u t trc tip FDIu t vo bt ng sn
Thm ht cn cn vng lai
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THM HT NGN SCH CHNH PH
THM HT NGN SCH NH NC LNTHM HT TI KHON VNG LAI5/4/2012 15
THM HT TI KHON VNG LAI LN
Thm ht cn cn vng lai
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(Ngun B Ti Chnh) 16
Thm ht cn cn vng lai
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Hn ch u tTng tit kim
Gim thm ht ngn sch NN5/4/2012 17 Thm ht cn cn vng lai
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Ngy 24/2/1999,Thng c ngn hng nh nc c quyt nh s 64/1999/Q/NHNN v
quyt nh s 65/1999/QQ/NHNN ban hnh c ch iu hnh t gi bnh qun trn th
trng ngoi t lin ngn hng
cn i cung cu ngoi t, to iu kin kim sot cung tin, khuyn khch xut
khu, hn ch nhp khu5/4/2012 18 Thm ht cn cn vng lai
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Theo quy nh ti Php lnh Ngoi hi v Ngh nh 160/2006/N-CP c ch t gi
hi oi ca ng Vit Nam l c ch t gi th ni c qun l. T gi c iu hnh theo
tn hiu th trng v ph hp vi s thay i ca li sut VND nhm cn i hi ha
cung cu ngoi t, tng cng thanh khon trn th trng ngoi t, gp phn kim
sot nhp siu
5/4/2012
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Thm ht cn cn vng lai
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Thc hin chnh sch tin t cht ch, thn trng
Ngh quyt 11NQ/ CP5/4/2012
Thc hin chnh sch ti kha tht cht, ct gim u t cng, gim bi chi ngn
sch nh nc Thc y sn xut, kinh doanh, khuyn khch xut khu, kim ch nhp
siu, s dng tit kim nng lng20 Thm ht cn cn vng lai
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n nh li sut mc 14% Tht cht chnh sch tin t Hn ch tng trng tn
dng
5/4/2012
21
Thm ht cn cn vng lai
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R sot v ct b cc hng mc u t km hiu qu ca doanh nghip nh nc
(DNNN)
Ct gim chi thng xuyn ca b my nh nc cc cp.
Ct gim ngun u t t ngn sch v tn dng nh nc5/4/2012 22
Thm ht cn cn vng lai
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Tip tc thc hin CS ti kha v tin t thn trng v cht ch
Khuyn khch tiu dng cc mt hng trong nc
Ngn hnTng thu nhp khu gim nhu cu nhp khu5/4/2012 23
Xy dng lng tin v ng tin Vit Nam v duy tr n nh gi cThm ht cn cn
vng lai
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Nng cao gi tr gia tng trong hot ng sn xut
iu chnh mc thm ht ngn sch v cng c chnh sch tin tTng cng cc dch v
h tr trong nc
Duy tr mi trng u t hp dn v nng cao nng lc cnh tranhNng cao nng
lc vn con ngi thng qua u t gio dc
Duy tr chnh sch t gi ph hp vi chin lc pht trin kinh t trong tng
giai onp dng hn ch nhp khu ph hp vi qui nh trong nc v cam kt quc
t24 Thm ht cn cn vng lai
5/4/2012
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5/4/2012
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