Thailand – GDP 1Q2014

by Eduardo Petazze

Thailand's GDP in 1Q2014 with a decrease of 0.55% Y/Y (-2.12% Q/Q, SA), from a growth of 0.63% Y/Y (+0.13% Q/Q) in 4Q2014.2014 a slight increase of 1.20% is estimated, from 2.89% in 2013 and 6.49% in 2012

The Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board of Thailand released its GDP estimate for 1Q2014Link: GDP in the first quarter decreased by 0.6% due to lower demand, both domestic and external – pdf, 40 pages

Included in the summary our projection for the rest of the yearGross data

Seasonally adjusted dataMillions (1988) Baht, official SA 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1

Private Consumption Expenditure 619,815 629,743 642,745 659,681 650,256 639,642 633,163 632,485 629,335General Government Consumption Expenditure 117,993 123,295 125,844 127,650 122,578 132,621 134,196 129,237 125,901Gross Fixed Capital Formation 264,646 275,403 288,167 288,272 279,209 289,447 268,428 258,938 251,669

Millions (1988) Baht, official SA 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1Agriculture 103,270 102,583 104,073 103,054 103,544 104,879 103,847 105,376 104,306

Agriculture, Hunting and Forestry 86,712 85,508 88,195 87,327 88,064 89,255 89,091 90,480 89,202Fishing 16,558 17,075 15,878 15,727 15,480 15,624 14,756 14,896 15,104

Non-Agriculture 1,078,357 1,112,897 1,131,180 1,162,613 1,144,765 1,145,513 1,165,183 1,165,250 1,139,442Mining and Quarrying 25,288 26,398 27,373 28,075 27,882 27,561 26,739 27,367 27,539Manufacturing 455,107 474,888 484,305 501,483 480,353 469,189 483,098 485,268 469,415Electricity, Gas and Water Supply 44,382 44,871 45,119 46,099 45,539 46,138 45,644 44,531 44,117Construction 24,851 25,681 26,535 27,411 27,455 26,973 25,981 25,056 24,042Wholesale and Retail Trade, Repair of … 160,501 163,007 164,671 166,528 168,466 167,969 169,069 169,992 167,720Hotels and Restaurants 49,521 51,325 51,889 55,278 57,016 58,406 59,794 58,402 55,344Transport, storage and Communication 115,316 119,189 120,792 122,333 125,210 128,045 131,077 131,610 129,979Financial Intermediation 52,525 53,714 54,879 56,553 57,925 59,183 60,997 61,605 61,849Real Estate, Renting and Business Activities 45,950 47,489 48,245 48,509 48,505 49,560 50,255 50,399 48,444Public Administration and Defence; ….... 32,363 32,833 33,094 33,503 32,243 33,720 34,046 33,866 34,415Education 30,468 30,587 30,651 32,071 29,472 32,377 32,452 31,558 31,150Health and Social Work 14,852 15,026 15,094 15,229 14,923 15,691 15,837 15,528 15,270Other Community, Social ….... 26,264 26,909 27,543 28,563 28,850 29,675 29,231 29,116 29,252Private Household with Employed Persons 969 980 990 978 926 1,026 963 952 906

GDP 1,181,627 1,215,480 1,235,253 1,265,667 1,248,309 1,250,392 1,269,030 1,270,626 1,243,748SA – Q/Q 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1

Private Consumption Expenditure 6.12% 1.60% 2.06% 2.63% -1.43% -1.63% -1.01% -0.11% -0.50%General Government Consumption Expenditure 5.01% 4.49% 2.07% 1.44% -3.97% 8.19% 1.19% -3.70% -2.58%Gross Fixed Capital Formation 12.05% 4.06% 4.63% 0.04% -3.14% 3.67% -7.26% -3.54% -2.81%

SA – Q/Q 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1Agriculture 3.93% -0.67% 1.45% -0.98% 0.48% 1.29% -0.98% 1.47% -1.02%

Agriculture, Hunting and Forestry 4.94% -1.39% 3.14% -0.98% 0.84% 1.35% -0.18% 1.56% -1.41%Fishing -1.06% 3.12% -7.01% -0.95% -1.57% 0.93% -5.56% 0.95% 1.40%

Non-Agriculture 11.98% 3.20% 1.64% 2.78% -1.54% 0.07% 1.72% 0.01% -2.21%Mining and Quarrying 3.57% 4.39% 3.69% 2.56% -0.69% -1.15% -2.98% 2.35% 0.63%Manufacturing 23.43% 4.35% 1.98% 3.55% -4.21% -2.32% 2.96% 0.45% -3.27%Electricity, Gas and Water Supply 9.20% 1.10% 0.55% 2.17% -1.21% 1.32% -1.07% -2.44% -0.93%Construction 3.11% 3.34% 3.33% 3.30% 0.16% -1.76% -3.68% -3.56% -4.05%Wholesale and Retail Trade, Repair of … 3.69% 1.56% 1.02% 1.13% 1.16% -0.30% 0.65% 0.55% -1.34%Hotels and Restaurants 12.58% 3.64% 1.10% 6.53% 3.14% 2.44% 2.38% -2.33% -5.24%Transport, storage and Communication 6.86% 3.36% 1.34% 1.28% 2.35% 2.26% 2.37% 0.41% -1.24%Financial Intermediation 1.54% 2.26% 2.17% 3.05% 2.43% 2.17% 3.07% 1.00% 0.40%Real Estate, Renting and Business Activities 2.45% 3.35% 1.59% 0.55% -0.01% 2.18% 1.40% 0.29% -3.88%Public Administration and Defence; ….... 0.87% 1.45% 0.79% 1.24% -3.76% 4.58% 0.97% -0.53% 1.62%Education 3.71% 0.39% 0.21% 4.63% -8.10% 9.86% 0.23% -2.75% -1.29%Health and Social Work 1.94% 1.17% 0.45% 0.89% -2.01% 5.15% 0.93% -1.95% -1.66%Other Community, Social ….... 5.86% 2.46% 2.36% 3.70% 1.00% 2.86% -1.50% -0.39% 0.47%Private Household with Employed Persons 0.31% 1.14% 1.02% -1.21% -5.32% 10.80% -6.14% -1.14% -4.83%

GDP 11.23% 2.86% 1.63% 2.46% -1.37% 0.17% 1.49% 0.13% -2.12%

2012 2013 2014 Millions (1988) Baht, NSA 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q42,552,053 2,559,851 2,555,262 Private Consumption Expenditure 635,821 662,836 622,096 639,098 616,771 653,930 632,936 651,625

496,098 520,362 526,055 General Government Consumption Expenditure 113,183 127,858 162,277 117,044 116,445 125,447 160,297 123,8651,116,686 1,094,703 1,068,845 Gross Fixed Capital Formation 274,915 296,747 278,665 244,376 248,031 281,563 283,560 255,691

43,890 90,996 59,784 Change in Inventories 32,852 18,307 -11,052 50,889 6,197 8,324 -25,788 71,0513,578,123 3,728,938 3,798,464 Exports of Goods and Services 944,490 894,639 943,421 946,388 940,378 914,941 973,934 969,2112,841,524 2,846,921 2,891,236 Exports of Goods 712,478 700,538 719,468 714,437 718,218 720,575 742,807 709,636

736,599 882,017 907,229 Exports of Services 232,012 194,101 223,953 231,951 222,160 194,366 231,127 259,5752,918,276 2,986,722 2,937,396 Imports of Goods and Services 739,771 767,889 753,391 725,671 676,790 743,417 771,499 745,6912,472,118 2,517,276 2,435,542 Imports of Goods 627,892 652,068 636,549 600,767 552,353 621,400 647,701 614,089

446,158 469,446 501,854 Imports of Services 111,879 115,821 116,842 124,904 124,437 122,017 123,797 131,6034,868,574 5,008,128 5,071,014 Expenditure on GDP 1,261,490 1,232,498 1,242,016 1,272,124 1,251,032 1,240,788 1,253,441 1,325,752

29,615 31,666 29,117 Statistical Discrepancy 25,793 -3,486 -17,758 27,117 29,117 0 0 04,898,189 5,039,794 5,100,131 GDP 1,287,283 1,229,012 1,224,258 1,299,241 1,280,149 1,240,788 1,253,441 1,325,7522012 2013 2014 Millions (1988) Baht, NSA 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4412,175 417,797 429,571 Agriculture 113,646 93,213 79,216 131,722 114,518 94,848 83,118 137,088347,087 357,059 371,144 Agriculture, Hunting and Forestry 96,226 80,218 68,200 112,415 97,519 82,513 72,212 118,900

65,088 60,738 58,427 Fishing 17,420 12,995 11,016 19,307 16,999 12,335 10,905 18,1884,486,014 4,621,997 4,670,560 Non-Agriculture 1,173,637 1,135,799 1,145,042 1,167,519 1,165,631 1,145,941 1,170,323 1,188,665

107,135 109,535 112,014 Mining and Quarrying 27,248 28,333 27,040 26,914 26,919 28,980 28,544 27,5701,917,142 1,919,061 1,903,214 Manufacturing 490,702 473,866 461,635 492,858 477,358 471,968 467,289 486,599

180,358 181,931 183,020 Electricity, Gas and Water Supply 45,465 47,923 46,508 42,035 44,061 47,860 47,591 43,509104,469 105,504 101,189 Construction 26,191 26,978 30,174 22,161 22,944 25,511 30,254 22,480654,279 675,484 685,649 Wholesale and Retail Trade, Repair of … 183,633 162,868 162,184 166,799 182,795 166,642 166,015 170,196208,104 233,552 239,196 Hotels and Restaurants 59,012 56,553 57,243 60,744 57,182 57,049 59,895 65,070477,587 515,968 538,546 Transport, storage and Communication 128,407 121,692 128,610 137,259 133,190 126,329 133,496 145,531217,738 239,805 253,228 Financial Intermediation 56,627 58,829 65,560 58,789 60,384 62,058 68,523 62,262190,245 198,754 199,741 Real Estate, Renting and Business Activities 48,398 48,963 51,734 49,659 48,242 48,763 51,708 51,028131,803 133,846 138,595 Public Administration and Defence; ….... 33,387 32,565 34,367 33,527 35,598 33,518 35,137 34,343123,719 125,843 129,081 Education 29,654 31,800 33,418 30,971 31,349 31,679 33,697 32,356

60,229 61,969 62,853 Health and Social Work 15,151 14,593 16,153 16,072 15,487 14,663 16,237 16,466109,287 116,880 120,477 Other Community, Social ….... 28,772 29,836 29,458 28,814 29,157 29,989 30,984 30,347

3,919 3,865 3,757 Private Household with Employed Persons 990 1,000 958 917 965 932 954 9064,898,189 5,039,794 5,100,131 GDP 1,287,283 1,229,012 1,224,258 1,299,241 1,280,149 1,240,788 1,253,441 1,325,752

Last dataOwn estimate

2012 2013 2014 Y/Y 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q46.66% 0.31% -0.18% Private Consumption Expenditure 4.41% 2.45% -1.25% -4.07% -3.00% -1.34% 1.74% 1.96%7.49% 4.89% 1.09% General Government Consumption Expenditure 2.89% 7.63% 7.32% 0.81% 2.88% -1.89% -1.22% 5.83%

13.20% -1.97% -2.36% Gross Fixed Capital Formation 5.84% 4.66% -6.31% -11.44% -9.78% -5.12% 1.76% 4.63%3.08% 4.21% 1.86% Exports of Goods and Services 8.31% 2.86% 3.79% 2.05% -0.44% 2.27% 3.23% 2.41%

-0.40% 0.19% 1.56% Exports of Goods 3.65% -1.50% -1.45% 0.21% 0.81% 2.86% 3.24% -0.67%19.11% 19.74% 2.86% Exports of Services 25.66% 22.42% 25.16% 8.14% -4.25% 0.14% 3.20% 11.91%

6.22% 2.35% -1.65% Imports of Goods and Services 8.13% 4.50% 0.76% -3.45% -8.51% -3.19% 2.40% 2.76%6.51% 1.83% -3.25% Imports of Goods 9.47% 4.36% -0.48% -5.26% -12.03% -4.70% 1.75% 2.22%4.63% 5.22% 6.90% Imports of Services 1.17% 5.29% 8.09% 6.33% 11.22% 5.35% 5.95% 5.36%6.48% 2.87% 1.26% Expenditure on GDP 5.64% 2.68% 2.47% 0.80% -0.83% 0.67% 0.92% 4.22%6.49% 2.89% 1.20% GDP 5.37% 2.94% 2.74% 0.63% -0.55% 0.96% 2.38% 2.04%

2012 2013 2014 Y/Y 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q43.84% 1.36% 2.82% Agriculture 0.77% 2.48% -0.32% 2.14% 0.77% 1.75% 4.93% 4.07%5.23% 2.87% 3.94% Agriculture, Hunting and Forestry 2.25% 4.42% 0.93% 3.52% 1.34% 2.86% 5.88% 5.77%

-3.02% -6.68% -3.80% Fishing -6.72% -8.09% -7.42% -5.24% -2.42% -5.08% -1.01% -5.79%6.74% 3.03% 1.05% Non-Agriculture 5.84% 2.98% 2.96% 0.46% -0.68% 0.89% 2.21% 1.81%8.18% 2.24% 2.26% Mining and Quarrying 10.39% 4.35% -2.39% -2.48% -1.21% 2.28% 5.56% 2.44%6.90% 0.10% -0.83% Manufacturing 4.95% -1.05% -0.45% -2.78% -2.72% -0.40% 1.22% -1.27%9.67% 0.87% 0.60% Electricity, Gas and Water Supply 2.84% 2.76% 1.03% -3.33% -3.09% -0.13% 2.33% 3.51%7.84% 0.99% -4.09% Construction 10.50% 5.00% -2.20% -8.50% -12.40% -5.44% 0.26% 1.44%5.24% 3.24% 1.50% Wholesale and Retail Trade, Repair of … 5.06% 3.00% 2.59% 2.15% -0.46% 2.32% 2.36% 2.04%

11.60% 12.23% 2.42% Hotels and Restaurants 14.85% 14.17% 15.10% 5.73% -3.10% 0.88% 4.63% 7.12%8.08% 8.04% 4.38% Transport, storage and Communication 8.39% 7.70% 8.64% 7.45% 3.72% 3.81% 3.80% 6.03%6.45% 10.13% 5.60% Financial Intermediation 10.01% 10.13% 11.32% 8.96% 6.63% 5.49% 4.52% 5.91%3.89% 4.47% 0.50% Real Estate, Renting and Business Activities 5.27% 4.44% 4.41% 3.80% -0.32% -0.41% -0.05% 2.76%3.63% 1.55% 3.55% Public Administration and Defence; ….... -0.44% 2.65% 2.84% 1.21% 6.62% 2.93% 2.24% 2.43%5.06% 1.72% 2.57% Education -3.20% 5.94% 5.90% -1.71% 5.72% -0.38% 0.83% 4.47%4.63% 2.89% 1.43% Health and Social Work 0.19% 4.53% 5.08% 1.89% 2.22% 0.48% 0.52% 2.45%4.14% 6.95% 3.08% Other Community, Social ….... 9.56% 10.61% 6.00% 1.95% 1.34% 0.51% 5.18% 5.32%2.27% -1.38% -2.81% Private Household with Employed Persons -4.90% 4.82% -2.64% -2.45% -2.53% -6.78% -0.46% -1.23%6.49% 2.89% 1.20% GDP 5.37% 2.94% 2.74% 0.63% -0.55% 0.96% 2.38% 2.04%