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1 11 May 2006 11 May 2006 Thai Oil Public Company Limited Analyst Presentation 1 st Quarter 2006 Performance Thai Oil Public Company Limited Analyst Presentation 1 st Quarter 2006 Performance www.thaioil.co.th www.thaioil.co.th

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Page 1: Thai Oil Public Company Limited Analyst … Oil Public Company Limited Analyst Presentation ... EPC contractors. ... Middle East and our product yields continued to meet

1

11 May 200611 May 2006

Thai Oil Public Company Limited

Analyst Presentation1st Quarter 2006 Performance

Thai Oil Public Company Limited

Analyst Presentation1st Quarter 2006 Performance

www.thaioil.co.thwww.thaioil.co.th

Page 2: Thai Oil Public Company Limited Analyst … Oil Public Company Limited Analyst Presentation ... EPC contractors. ... Middle East and our product yields continued to meet

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DisclaimerDisclaimer

The information contained in this presentation is

intended solely for your personal reference. Please do

not circulate this material. If you are not an intended

recipient, you must not read, disclose, copy, retain,

distribute or take any action in reliance upon it.

Page 3: Thai Oil Public Company Limited Analyst … Oil Public Company Limited Analyst Presentation ... EPC contractors. ... Middle East and our product yields continued to meet

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I)I) Quarterly HighlightsQuarterly Highlights

II)II) Operational UpdateOperational Update

III)III) Financial PerformanceFinancial Performance

IV)IV) Investment ProjectsInvestment Projects

PresentationPresentation OutlineOutline

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I) Quarterly HighlightI) Quarterly Highlightss

Page 5: Thai Oil Public Company Limited Analyst … Oil Public Company Limited Analyst Presentation ... EPC contractors. ... Middle East and our product yields continued to meet

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Flagship refinery of the PTT group

Largest, most complex & highly integrated refinery in Thailand

One of the most complex in the region – Nelson index = 8.6

Thai refining industry’s most capable and experienced management and staff

2nd largest in Thailand in terms of total revenue ~ US$ 6.3 bn. in 2005

8th largest market cap. & 5th most liquidly traded on SET – mkt cap ~ US$ 3.5 bn. (3% of SET)

Ranked in Forbes’ global survey among 2,000 biggest companies - one of 13 Thai companies. TOP ranked # 1,330 in 2005, improving from # 1,595 from the previous year

Largest and arguably most successful IPO / listing (US$ 830 mn.) on SET since PTT’s in 2001

Highest credit-rated amongst pure-play refineries in the region – Moody’s Baa1& S&P’s BBB

Thaioil – One of Thailand’s Premier CompaniesThaioilThaioil –– One of ThailandOne of Thailand’’s Premier Companiess Premier Companies

Note: As of 30 March 2006PTT 49.54%

Free Float (Thai) 19.81% Free Float (Foreign) 23.47%

Others 7.18%

Thaioil’s Shareholding Structure

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Achieved high refinery intake of 106%.Maximized group operational synergy through Area Production Unit management (TLB/TPX).Completed TLB hot oil & Mercury Removal Unit (MRU) tie-in activities.

Achieved high refinery intake of 106%.Maximized group operational synergy through Area Production Unit management (TLB/TPX).Completed TLB hot oil & Mercury Removal Unit (MRU) tie-in activities.

Operation

TLB underwent 1st major turnaround to improve plant efficiency while maintaining profitability.IPT advanced transformer repair work by 2 months ahead of plan.

TLB underwent 1st major turnaround to improve plant efficiency while maintaining profitability.IPT advanced transformer repair work by 2 months ahead of plan.

Served customers demand with higher domestic sale.Completed feasibility study & risk assessment of Ethanol project.

Served customers demand with higher domestic sale.Completed feasibility study & risk assessment of Ethanol project.

Business

Modified scope of TPX expansion project to increase PX production. Terms and conditions finalized with EPC contractors.

Modified scope of TPX expansion project to increase PX production. Terms and conditions finalized with EPC contractors.

Repaid US$100 mn. of revolving loan facility in Jan.Declared dividend of Bt. 3.5/share (40% payout). Payment on 4 May’06.

Repaid US$100 mn. of revolving loan facility in Jan.Declared dividend of Bt. 3.5/share (40% payout). Payment on 4 May’06.

Finance

TPX prepaid high-cost supplier loan of US$ 20 mn. in Jan’06. TPX is negotiating with lenders to lower interest/release security in Q2/06. TP and TLB paid dividend of Bt. 1.25/sh. and Bt. 1.75/sh., respectively.

TPX prepaid high-cost supplier loan of US$ 20 mn. in Jan’06. TPX is negotiating with lenders to lower interest/release security in Q2/06. TP and TLB paid dividend of Bt. 1.25/sh. and Bt. 1.75/sh., respectively.

Quarterly HighlightsQuarterly Highlights

Thaioil Subsidiaries

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Financial HighlightsFinancial Highlights

Bt. mn.

Consolidate Financial Performance

+35%

6,338 5,351

Q1/05 Q1/06*Percentage was based on total amount before deducting inter-company transaction.

Refinery50%

Q1/06

Bt. 4,086 mn.Bt. 4,086 mn.

Subsidiaries50%

Refinery83%

Q1/05

Bt. 3,691 mn.Bt. 3,691 mn.

Subsidiaries17%

+11%

Sales Revenue

Net Profit

4,0863,691

EBITDA

-16%

+11%

47,942

64,859

EBITDA declined 16% (YoY) to Bt. 5,351 mn. The declining GRM during 1st half of Q1 was due to inability of product prices to rise as fast as crude prices, in turn driven by geopolitical tensions.

Both product demand & prices staged an impressive rebouncesince the latter half.

EBITDA & net profit contributions from subs increased to 44% & 50% caused by higher margins, higher utilizations & the sale of MX to TPX in Apr’05. Group’s effective tax rate thereby reduced to 15%.

Net profit rose by 11% (YoY) to Bt 4,086 mn.

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II) Operational UpdateII) Operational Update

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232

149 149 149

66

175

0

50

100

150

200

250

TOP RRC SPRC Esso TPI BCP Aveutilization(Thailand)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

764 765 712 717 731 738

92 8388 82

782

87%90%

84%

90% 90%85%

89%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05 1Q06 2004 200550%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

Oil Demand Feed for PetrochemNet Export % Utilization rate (RHS)

Intake/Utilization by Refinery in Q1/06

Domestic Oil DemandDomestic Oil Demand Grew in Q1/06Grew in Q1/06

Domestic Oil Demand/Refinery Intake

(Intake)

Domestic demand in Q1/06 grew by 9% QoQ to 782 kbd, due mainly to increased demand in power generation (F/O), transport (Diesel), tourism (Jet).Diesel demand bounced back nearly to its pre-subsidy-removal level.Local refinery utilization hence increased to 90% (+5% QoQ).With complex configuration, Thaioil refinery was able to run the plant utilization at 106%, higher than other refineries in Thailand.

Remark: Exclude LR exchange between TOP/BCPSource: Ministry of Energy and Company

Kbd% Utilization106%

88%100%100%81%

55%

Intake

TOP RRC SPRC ESSO TPI BCP Ave. Utilization

90%

Avg.

Util

izat

ion

862 925 903911867920

98

394

317

77

122

96

Q4/05

121

424

341

83

124

97

Q1/06

+22%Fuel Oil

+2%Gasoline

+2%LPG

+8%

+8%

+8%

Middle Distillate

-Diesel

-Jet Fuel

Q1/06-Q4/05+/(-)

Oil Demand by Products Volume (Kbd)

921

Kbd % Utilization

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Q1/06 Operational UpdateQ1/06 Operational Update

TOP - Utilization improved by 11% YoY, due to less shutdown time. A 6 days shutdown was for TLB hot oil and MRU projects tie-in.

TPX - Productivity improved 10% to nearly full capacity, following a change in catalyst in Jan’05.TLB - Productivity dropped by 7% due to its 1st major turnaround with no impact on earnings.IPT - Availability rose 10% YoY, due to lower outage time (72-days after transformer incident on

19 Jan’06 vs 90-days in Q1/05 with only one CT in operation). TP - Utilization rose 3% due to lower outage time (minor inspection of 10-days in Q1/06 vs

major inspection of 25-days in Q1/05). TM - Utilization was higher arising from higher fleet management efficiency.

57%

87%86%

47%

71%

89%95% 99%

91%89%

64%

106%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

Q1/05Q1/06

Increased utilization/ production

rates, leading to increase in

group profitability.

Refinery Utilization PX Production Lube Production Availability Utilization Utilization

TOP TPX TLB IPT TP TM

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TOP TOP –– High Utilization and EfficiencyHigh Utilization and Efficiency

Despite shutdown of 6 days (29 Jan - 3 Feb) for TLB hot oil and MRU projects tie-in,

Thaioil was able to maintain high utilization rate at 106% compared to 104% in 2005

due to:

Alternate on-line cleaning of furnace and crude heat exchanger train of all

crude distillation units (CDU-1, CDU-2, CDU-3).

Hydrocracker-1 shutdown for 2 weeks in Mar’06 :

For a planned catalysts change-out.

Opportunity taken to carry out interim shutdown of related units (HVU-3 and

CCR-1) for minor repairs and efficiency improvement activities.

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78% 80%

5% 6%17% 14%

18% 10% 16%

57%54%

60% 55%

31%

12%

28% 29%30%

Thaioil processed higher portion of indigenous crude at

the expense of FE and ME crudes, due to increased

Bongkot condensate supplied by PTT during shutdown

of the local aromatic plant.

Additionally, given the widening FE & ME crude oil

price gap, none of Far East crude was intake in Mar'06.

Further heavy ME crude was used to replace the

reduced long residue supply from BCP. This, coupled

with HCU-1 shutdown for catalyst change, increased

fuel oil production slightly to 12%. Incidentally, Q1/06

saw strong domestic F/O demand and hence relatively

strong price increase.

Overall, Thaioil' s major crude intake were 78%from

Middle East and our product yields continued to meet

the country's demand in Q1/06.

Thaioil’s Crude Mix and Oil Product Yield

Flexible Configuration Allows forFlexible Configuration Allows forComplex Margin OptimizationComplex Margin Optimization

Middle East

Far East

Heav y

Light

Dist.

Middle

Q1/06

Local

2005

Crude ProductDomestic Demand

49.6069.2275.8867.159.6257.9567.57Q1/06

2005 64.03

Diesel0.5%

8.57

TP-DB

40.3167.6362.0949.3257.89

Fuel OilJetULG 95DubaiTapis

Average Oil Prices-MOPS (US$/bbl)

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Higher production rate at 99% and increased domestic

sale volume : Q1/06 Q1/05

PX production (KT) 86 78

PX domestic sale 70% 50%

TOP’s Technical Service Agreement (TSA) with SGSI

was extended to cover both TPX and TLB w/o additional

charges.

Benchmarking of plant performance with world-class

aromatics plants using Phillips Townsend as

consultant. Result to be available in Q2/06.

Expansion project will further enhance TPX’s

operational efficiency and profitability.

Higher production rate at 99% and increased domestic

sale volume : Q1/06 Q1/05

PX production (KT) 86 78

PX domestic sale 70% 50%

TOP’s Technical Service Agreement (TSA) with SGSI

was extended to cover both TPX and TLB w/o additional

charges.

Benchmarking of plant performance with world-class

aromatics plants using Phillips Townsend as

consultant. Result to be available in Q2/06.

Expansion project will further enhance TPX’s

operational efficiency and profitability.

TPX and TLB TPX and TLB –– Operational HighlightsOperational Highlights

TPXOperating TLB as one of TOP APU’s significantly improves plant performance.

Major turnaround was taken during 2 Mar – 5 Apr, 1st time since commencement of operation in 1997. Normally, turnaround time is for every 4 years.

The successful major turnaround exemplified the close collaboration b/w TLB & TOP.

Well-planned stock piling ahead of turnaround allowed TLB to enjoy high margin & maintain high profitability, virtually with no earning disruption.

Synergy projects:

TOP to use TLB’s hot oil for crude preheating which would increase CDU-1 feed by 5 kbd.

To maximize lube base production (through co-processing HCU bottom/LR and catalyst change).

TLB to use TOP’s cheaper refinery fuel oil in lieu of own expensive fuel (extract/slack wax).

To produce specialty product, Treated Distillate Aromatic Extract (TDAE).

Operating TLB as one of TOP APU’s significantly improves plant performance.

Major turnaround was taken during 2 Mar – 5 Apr, 1st time since commencement of operation in 1997. Normally, turnaround time is for every 4 years.

The successful major turnaround exemplified the close collaboration b/w TLB & TOP.

Well-planned stock piling ahead of turnaround allowed TLB to enjoy high margin & maintain high profitability, virtually with no earning disruption.

Synergy projects:

TOP to use TLB’s hot oil for crude preheating which would increase CDU-1 feed by 5 kbd.

To maximize lube base production (through co-processing HCU bottom/LR and catalyst change).

TLB to use TOP’s cheaper refinery fuel oil in lieu of own expensive fuel (extract/slack wax).

To produce specialty product, Treated Distillate Aromatic Extract (TDAE).

TLB

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III) Financial PerformanceIII) Financial Performance

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Oil Price Movement & Oil Price Movement & ThaioilThaioil’’ss GRMGRM

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Jan' 0

5 F M A M J J A S O N DJa

n' 06 F M A

Oil Price Movement US$/bbl Diesel

GasolineTapis

Dubai

Fuel Oil

Remark: MX unit sold to TPX since 1 April 2005

Thaioil’s Gross Refinery Margin - LIFOUS$/bbl

0

2

4

6

8

108.75

6.55

8.527.50

6.62

3.00

4.65MX

MX

Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3//05 Q4/05 Q1/06 FY/04 FY/05

-15-55

152535

US$/bbl

Product - Dubai Spreads

Diesel - DB

Gasoline - DB

Fuel Oil - DB

Q1/05 Q2/05 Q3/05 Q4/05Jan’06 F M

15

5

-5

-15

25

35

MA

Geopolitical issues, especially intensified tension over Iran’s nuclear program and unrest in Nigeria, drove crude oil price to its all-time high.

Sluggish demand lingered from last year’s subsidy removal had kept refined product prices from rising as fast during 1st half of Q1/06.

However, recently product market tighten up due to shutdown of regional refineries and declining product stocks. Product-crude spreads was most narrowed in Feb’06, before reversing the trend.

GRM grew QoQ from US$ 3/bbl to US$ 4.65/bbl. However, GRM for Q1/06 is lower than Q1/05 due largely to lower stock gains and the sale of MX unit to TPX in Apr’05.

MX

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Financial Highlights Financial Highlights -- ConsolidatedConsolidated

(Bt. mn.) Q4/05* Q1/06 Q1/05 YoY YoY

+/(-) (%)

Sales Revenue 67,081 64,859 47,942 16,917 35

EBITDA 4,803 5,351 6,338 (987) (16)

Profit before FX and Tax 2,594 3,124 4,422 (1,298) (29)

FX Gain/(Loss) 38 1,673 251 1,422 567

Tax (249) (711) (982) 271 (28)

Net Profit 2,383 4,086 3,691 395 11

Thaioil 164 2,141 2,948 (807) (27)

Subsidiaries 2,219 1,945 743 1,202 162

EPS (Bt/share) 1.17 2.00 1.81 0.19 11

Bt./US$ - ending 41.17 38.94 39.25 (0.31) (1)

*Excluding special item, TLB’s impairment reversal in Q4/05 of Bt. 2,894 mn.

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TLB55%100%

Q1/06 Performance Breakdown by CompanyQ1/06 Performance Breakdown by CompanyQ1/06 Performance Breakdown by Company

Q1/06 / Q1/05 / Change(Bt. Mn.)

100%100%

TPX

56%24%

TP TM

IPT

Production 99% 89% +10%PX-Feed ($/t) 403 384 +5%EBITDA 1,360 644 +716Net Profit 1,284 471 +813

TOP

TPX performance improved significantly as a result of business restructuring by incorporating MX unit into its operation.Strong lube base market continued to enhance TLB’sperformance. Production dropped from major turnaround for 35 days, however, no impact on its earning.IPT’s transformer incident in Jan’06 reduced availability to 57%, yet better than Q1/05. Problem is expected to be fixed by end Jun’06.

Group effective tax rate for Q1/06 reduced to 15%.

Production 64% 71% -7%500SN-HSFO ($/t) 483 297 +63% EBITDA 461 305 +156Net Profit 379 275 +104

Utilization 89% 86% +3%

EBITDA 180 168 +12

Net Profit 103 88 +15

Utilization 91% 87% +4%

EBITDA 21 11 +10

Net Profit 7 35 (27)

Avail. 57% 47% +10%

EBITDA 310 (46) +356

Net Profit 363 253 +110

Utilization 106% 95% +11%GRM ($/bbl) 4.65 8.75 (47%)EBITDA 3,025 5,262 (2,237)Net Profit 2,141 2,948 (807)

Remark: Margin for PX production = PX-ULG95 in Q1/06 vs PX-MX in Q1/05

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0

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

15,000

Financial StrengthFinancial Strength

Debt Repayment Profile Bt. mn.

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 Year

Changes in B/S (FY/05 vs Q1/06)

-Total Assets: up ~Bt. 777 mn. (+1%) due to high working capital arising from high oil price

-Total LT Debts: down ~Bt. 7,064 mn. (-20%) due to loan repayment/prepayment by TOP and its subsidiaries

Total Equities: up ~Bt. 3,863 mn. (+6%) as a result of net profit in Q1/06.

Dec’03 Dec’05 Mar’06Dec’04

Key Financial Ratios

13.1

8.9

11.6

0.60.3 0.4

0.8 0.81.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Q1/05 Q4/05 Q1/060.02.04.06.08.010.0

12.014.0

ICR LT Debt/Equity Net Debt/EBITDA

Interest Coverage

LT Debt/EquityNet Debt/EBITDA

Balance Sheet

101,935

124,169

Dec’03 Dec’05

Current Assets

Non-currentAssets

OtherLiabilities

TotalEquities

Bt. Mn.115,427

Mar’06Dec’04

Long-term Debts

52,421

40,28435,869

124,946

28,805

Remark: Convert by Bt. 40/US$

Avg. cost of debt ~ 6% p.a.Fixed interest ~ 57%US$ Loan ~ 80%

*Q1/06 EBITDA adjusted to full year

*

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Cash Flow in Q1/06Cash Flow in Q1/06

3,805Change in assets & liabilities

5,721Net income & non-cash adj.

9,526Operating Cash Flow

Bt. mn.

(1,996)CAPEX (PP&E)

294Other investment

(1,702)CAPEX & Investment

+

(158)Dividend payment

(42)Proceed from ST loans

(765)Interest

(5,737)Repayment of LT loans

(6,702)Financing

Free Cash Flow7,824

Beginning Cash

11,252

Net Increase in Cash

1,122

Ending Cash

12,374+ =

+

TOP’s dividend Bt 7,140 mn. in May’06.

At least 25% of net profit after specified reserve

Bt. 1.80/share paid in 2005 (25% dividend payout)

Bt. 3.50/share paid in 2006 (40% dividend payout)

Dividend

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IV) Investment ProjectsIV) Investment Projects

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US$ mn. 2005A 2006F 2007F Total

CDU-3 Debottlenecking 35 120 63 218

New Gas Turbine 6 27 10 43SBM 2 100 48 150

Refinery Expansion 43 247 121 411

Refinery expansion is well underway both cost and completion timing.

Completion is timely to meet rising domestic oil demand, while supplyremains tight.

Progress of Key Investment ProjectsProgress of Key Investment Projects-- Refinery ExpansionRefinery Expansion

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Progress of Key Investment ProjectsProgress of Key Investment Projects-- Refinery ExpansionRefinery Expansion

CDU-3 De-bottlenecking Gas Turbine SBM Expansion

Cost: US$ 218 mn. US$ 43 mn. US$ 150 mn.

equiv. ~ US$ 4,360/bbl

Size: + 50 kbd to 275 kbd 38 MW 52” diameter

(14.5 km long pipeline)

IRR: ~ 28% based on ~15% ~16%

US$ 4.5/bbl GRM

EPC: ABB CTCI SAIPEM

Est. C.O.D.: 2007 2007 2007

Benefits: To fulfill additional electricity demand for expansion projects

To serve growing domestic demand and to better utilize spared upgrading capacity

Freight saving of US$ 0.30/bbl for crude imported from Middle East

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US$ mn. 2005A 2006F 2007F Total

Refinery Expansion 43 247 121 411

TPX Expansion 10 136 136 282

Total 53 383 257 693

Capacity: Previous Plan Revised PlanPX 408 KTA (+60) 489 KTA (+141)BZ 160 KTA 177 KTATol 136 KTA 144 KTAMX 149 KTA (+77) 90 KTA (+18)Total 853 KTA 900 KTA

IRR : ~ 15% Expected C.O.D.: 2007

Benefits :

To capture added value in refinery value chain - aromatics (BTX) margin over ULG 95

To allow refinery to pioneer more stringent gasoline product spec (Euro IV)

Progress of Key Investment ProjectsProgress of Key Investment Projects-- TPX ExpansionTPX Expansion

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600

700

800

900

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

CAGR(2004 -05) 5.5% p.a.

Thaioil Thaioil -- Strategic RoadmapStrategic Roadmap

Domestic Oil Demand Outlook(kbd)

+50 to 275 +5 to 225 (Q3)Capacity (kbd)

CDU-3/SBM/GTMRU/Hot OilProject Completion

+480 to 900Capacity (KTA)

TPX ExpansionProject Completion

700 MW350 mn. L/yrCapacity

New IPPEthanolProject CompletionPower / Other

Petrochemical

Refinery/Lube

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

CAGR (2006-10) appx. 2 - 3 % p.a.

24

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ConclusionConclusion

Q1/06 saw net profit rise by 11% (YoY) to Bt. 4,086 mn.

Contributions from refinery grew QoQ, but declined YoY due to the effect of MXunit sale to TPX as well as lower stock gain.

Contributions from subsidiaries increased significantly as a result of strongmargins, higher utilization and also the effect of MX unit purchase.

Domestic demand, incl. diesel, showed strong recovery to near its pre-subsidy-removal level.

Regional product-crude price spreads widen significantly since end Feb’06. Drivingseason/harsh winter in US could provide further upside.

Outlook for the remainder of 2006 for both refinery & petrochem remains strong.IPT’s transformer problem is expected to be resolved within Q2, allowing it tocontribute fully in 2H/06.

Longer term outlook is bright, when investment projects start to be completed nextyear, fuelling TOP with capacity growth and allowing it to maximize values from itsintegrated petroleum/petrochemical complex.

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THANK YOU

Any further questions, please contact Investor Relations Dept.

Tel: (662) 299-0124

Fax: (662) 617-8295

Email: [email protected]

Website: www.thaioil.co.th