Th A fThree Actions for LCSs

Tokyo Institute of Technologyy gy

Hiroto TakayamaKazufumi TakashinaKou MorimotoTasuku HasegawaChie Tanabe

Oct. 31, 2008

Narrative ScenarioNarrative ScenarioAnnual Growth rate :→ Approximately 2% of GDP per→ Approximately 2% of GDP per

capita growth rateTechnology development rate :

Hi h140

Population Projection

→ HighMarket : Reducing regulationPrimary: 100

120

yDecrease in Share Increase in import dependencySecondary:

60

80

mill

ion 65 over

15～64

0～14

Secondary:Tendency to heighten the added value Globalization of production basis 20

40

Service:Increase in share Increase in productivity

0

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Increase in productivity

Policyy

Residential sector (HEMS and BEMS)HEMS and BEMS are the technology of improving energy gy p g gyefficiency in residential sector.

Freight transport sector (modal shift)Freight transport sector (modal shift)Modal shift is a change in the proportion of trips by different types of freight transporttypes of freight transport .

Energy sector (natural energy) We assume that we introduce the technology of natural energy.

d lResidential Sector

HEMS & BEMS

U IT h lUse IT technology to promote and facilitate a system that supports y ppthe energy demand management at home (HEMS)at home (HEMS)for business (BEMS)

Source: Energate Inc

Optionsp

HEMS & BEMS

High cost Lack of knowledgeof HEMS &BEMS

Cost downConveniences Advertisements

Lack of appealof HEMS &BEMS

Need to investConnectionbetween themakers

Lack of informationabout house and building energy savingNeed to invest

Development of cost performance

Electricalappliances

Education ofenvironmentDevelopment of

usability cost performance

Change legal or Impose tax

When should we start the optionsp2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Advertisement

Development (cost performance and usability)

Electrical appliances

Cost down

Electrical appliances

Education

Ch l l I t

Conveniences

Change legal or Impose tax

Result

CO2 Reduction

315

313 5

314

314.5

315

BEMS light

BEMS warm

312.5

313

313.5

Mt-

c

BEMS cool

HEMS appliances

HEMS light

311

311.5

312

M HEMS light

HEMS warm

HEMS cool

310

310.5

0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0

BAU

200

200

201

201

202

202

203

203

204

204

205

TTransportation Sector(Freight)(Freight)

Japanese Railway SystemJ p y yPassenger railway company

F i h R ilFreight Railway company  

“Japanese Freight Railway Company” hire railway track from “Passenger Railway Company”Passenger Railway Company .

barriersF i ht il `t k fl ibilit• Freight railway company can`t make flexibility Now, they lag increasing demand

• When disaster happen ,recovery of freight rail diagram is very slowdiagram is very slow

• Limit of burden is strictEG  Japan; Maximum loading weight is 1300t

Korea; Maximum loading weight is more than 2000tKorea; Maximum loading weight is more than 2000t 

• Equipment of freight train get older

• Government place more emphasis on road and less on rail.

Optionsp

Increasing rail transportDifferentiated service to other means Improve through transportation

Energy saving train

V ti l ti ４０ｆｔcontainer

Improvement portImprove speed of transport

B ilt b ll t t i f Vertical separation  ４０ｆｔcontainer remain competitive

Rise weight limitsImprove alternate

Built bullet train for cargo transport

New raw to remain competitive

Improve existing infrastructure

Improve alternate route

competitive

New raw to sub serve cost 

securing of financing

Introduce the carbon tax

What is vertical Separation?pDepartment of  train monitoring

(new construction)(new construction)

Monitoring   competition

Monitoring safety

Railway companies(operate trains)

Rail truck companies(operate rail truck)

EG. Réseau Ferré de France

Use fees of rail truck

p EG. Réseau Ferré de FranceNetwork Rail (UK)Lending rail truck

What is Tokaido Freight ShinkansenWhat is Tokaido Freight Shinkansen

Now, line capacity between Tokyo and Osaka is full

We can not increase Freight train.There is a plan to built freight line medianThere is a plan to built freight line median

strip on the new high way

When should we start the optionsp2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Energy saving train

Built bullet train for cargo transportg p

New raw to remain competitive

Improve alternate routeImprove alternate route

New raw to sub serve cost

I t d th b tIntroduce the carbon tax

Improve existing infrastructure

Vertical separation

40ft container

Improvement port

Result～Transportation mode～

350

process of transportation mode

300

200

250

Small freight vehicle

150B t-

km Large freigt vehicle

Freight train

Freight ship

50

100 Freght air

0

50

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 20502000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Change of CO2 emissionChange of CO2 emission (MtC)

building bullet train

reduction of car transportation by bullet train renewal of freight train equipment

2

making effcient locomobile

1

1.5

0

0.5

MtC

-1

-0.5

2

-1.5

-2

lEnergy Supply Sector

Power production for local consumption by local renewable resource

Fuel shift to renewable energy

Water, land right

Reducing Law reforming

, gconstraintsEnergy loss in electricity

transmissionLow penetration rate of

renewable power equipment

improvement of electricity transmission infrastructure

transmission loss renewable power equipment

Expanding renewable energy purchasing system

High-cost relative to existing electricity

Lack of information about renewable energy

based power system

Low purchasing price for renewable energy

Announcement for stakeholderEnhancing R&D Subsidies for installation of

renewable power system

When should we start the optionsp2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Announcement for stakeholder

Expanding renewable energy purchasing system

Law reforming

Expanding renewable energy purchasing system

Fuel shift to renewable energy

improvement of electricity transmission infrastructure

Enhancing R&D

Reducing transmission loss

Enhancing R&D

Result

315

320

310

315

Mt-C

]

Efficient renewable powerl t

305

emis

sion

[M plantFuel shift to renewableenergyBAU

295

300CO

2 BAU

290

295

0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

All ActionsResidential and Commercial sector

HEMS BEMS → diffuse320

HEMS, BEMS → diffuse

Freight transportation sector 280

300

n [M

tC]

The Tokaido Shinkansen for commodity distribution begin service (2020～)

260

280

CO

2 em

issi

o

se ce ( 0 0 )Spread railway networksImprove the efficiency of trains 220

240

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

CEnergy supply sector

Energy shift (2015～)

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

BAU HEMS coolHEMS warm HEMS lightHEMS appliances BEMS coolBEMS warm BEMS lightEnergy shift (2015 )

→ renewable energyg

bullet train for cargo transport car reductionRail infrastructure development Efficient locomotive buildingdecrease shipping Fuel shift to renewable energyEfficient renewable power plant

Discussion

UncertaintiesIs there other options or barriers?

Mi d i iMindset, incentivesOur inputs for BCM is correct?

To stimulate stakeholders’ participation in actions, more effective options are neededmore effective options are needed.

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