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7/25/2019 forrestal_19950907.pdf http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/forrestal19950907pdf 1/8 THE NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Remarks by Robert P. Forrestal President and Chief Executive Officer  Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Florida Bankers Association Miami, Florida September 7, 1995 I am pleased to be here today to speak with you about the national economic outlook and to give you my views on the outlook for trade with some of our major trading regions. Although this audience is not strictly made up of bankers, I have no doubt that each of you has a special relationship with a banker. So, at the end of my remarks, I will also address what sort of effects the changing economy may have on the banking industry. The U.S. Economy Let me turn first to the U.S. economy. Growth in output last year was 4 percent, and the last quarter of the year was very strong. In fact, early last year the Federal Reserve took certain measures to restrain this rate of growth because it was very robust relative to our overall resource utilization and the potential of capacity to expand. So the recent slowing, while perhaps more than I expected, is not entirely unwelcome. Even with the recent deceleration, I expect GDP to grow by about 2 1/2 percent to 3 percent on an annual average basis or around 2 percent using the Q1V to Q1V basis that many refer to. The deceleration in output growth, which was quite sharp in the second quarter, was due to business efforts to reduce inventories in the wake of a pause in consumer spending. With this adjustment nearing completion, I expect that the pace of expansion will likely rebound. Considering that the expansion has been going on for four years, the moderate growth rate ed for FRASER raser.stlouisfed.org/ al Reserve Bank of St. Louis

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