Texas

Population Estimates and Projections for LCRA Counties

LCRADecember 18, 2013

Austin, TX

1

2

Total Estimated Population by County, 2012

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2012 Population Estimates

Along and east of I-35: 40% of land 86% of population 92% of population growth (2011-2012)

LegendPOPESTIMATE2012

71-10,000

10,001-50,000

50,001-100,000

100,001-500,000

500,001-1,000,000

1,000,001-4,253,700

3

Change of the Total Population by County, 2000 to 2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau 2000 and 2010 Census Counts

Legendco48_d00'PROJECTIONS X$'.totpopch0010

-3,200 - 0

1 - 10,000

10,001 - 50,000

50,001 - 100,000

100,001 - 700,000

79 counties lost population over the decade

4

Change of the Total Population by County, 2010 to 2012

Source: U.S. Census Bureau Population Estimates, 2012 Vintage.

96 counties lost population over the two year period

Legendtl_2010_48_county10popchg4201072012

LT 0

1-1,000

1,001-20,000

20,001-80,000

80,001-161,252

Of counties that lost population90% had net out migration47% had natural decline

5

The 10 Fastest Growing Metro AreasIncrease from July 1, 2011, to July 1, 2012

Percent Increase

1. Midland, Texas 4.62. Clarksville, Tenn.-Ky. 3.73. Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, Fla. 3.64. The Villages, Fla. 3.45. Odessa, Texas 3.46. Jacksonville, N.C. 3.37. Austin-Round Rock, Texas 3.08. Casper, Wyo. 3.09. Columbus, Ga.-Ala. 2.910. Manhattan, Kan. 2.8

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2012

6

The 10 Counties with the Largest Numeric Increase from July 1, 2011, to July 1, 2012

NumericIncrease

1. Harris, Texas 80,0052. Los Angeles, Calif. 73,7643. Maricopa, Ariz. 73,6444. Dallas, Texas 45,8275. San Diego, Calif. 38,8806. King, Wash. 35,8387. Travis, Texas 34,3818. Orange, Calif. 34,0179. Tarrant, Texas 32,99710. Clark, Nev. 32,833

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013

Estimated population change 2010-2012, LCRA Counties

BrownLlano

ColoradoSan Saba

MillsKimble

LeeMason

MenardMcCulloch

BanderaReal

BurlesonFayetteGoliadBlanco

KerrAustinLavaca

GonzalesGillespie

DeWittWashington

LampasasBastrop

CaldwellBurnetWallerWilsonKendallComal

GuadalupeHays

WilliamsonTravis

(10,000) - 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000

Natural IncreaseNet Migration

7Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates

Estimated population change 2010-2012, LCRA Counties

Waller

Wilson

Kendall

Comal

Guadalupe

Hays

Williamson

Travis

- 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 8

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates

Estimated population change 2010-2012, LCRA Counties

BrownLlano

ColoradoSan Saba

MillsKimble

LeeMason

MenardMcCulloch

BanderaReal

BurlesonFayetteGoliadBlanco

KerrAustin

LavacaGonzalesGillespie

DeWittWashington

LampasasBastrop

CaldwellBurnet

(600) (400) (200) - 200 400 600 800 9

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates

Scale on previous slide went to 80,000

Webb

Hill

Duval

Bell

Frio

Kerr

Kenedy

Ellis

Uvalde

Leon

Bee

Bexar

Erath

Jack

Starr

HuntWise

Zavala

Dimmit

Kimble

La Salle

Medina

LlanoMilam

Travis Lee

Mills

Falls

Collin

Edwards

Jones

Taylor

Burnet

Coryell

Brown

Young

Real

Dallas

Nueces

Matagorda

Zapata

Coleman

Parker

Mason

Navarro

Kleberg

Denton

Bosque

Harris

DeWitt

Lavaca

Hays

Tarrant

Brooks

Atascosa

Runnels

Goliad

Concho

Wharton

Fayette

Haskell

Gillespie

CalhounLive Oak

Menard

Wilson

McMullen

Victoria

San Saba

Jim Hogg

Bastrop

Gonzales

Grimes

Eastland

Kinney

Colorado

Williamson

Austin

Karnes

Blanco

Callahan

Refugio

Anderson

McCulloch

Jackson

McLennan

Stephens Palo Pinto

Walker

Hamilton

Bandera

Kaufman

Brazoria

Limestone

Nolan

Freestone

Fort Bend

Comanche

Jim Wells

Johnson

KendallComal

Henderson

Sutton

Van Zandt

Fisher

Brazos

Robertson

Stonewall

Hood

Hidalgo

Shackelford

Willacy

Burleson

Hopkins

Lampasas

Guadalupe

Caldwell

Coke

San Patricio

Madison

Washington

Delta

WoodRains

KnoxKing FanninArcherBaylor Grayson

Maverick

Waller

HoustonTom Green

Throckmorton

Aransas

Montgomery

Schleicher

Cooke

Somervell

Rockwall

Clay Montague

CherokeeLegendNumeric change .5 Numerica Change 2010-2030 .5 Migration

-99-0

1-20,000

20,001-75,000

75,001-125,000

125,001-325,000

Projected population change 2010-2030, LCRA Counties, 0.5 Migration Scenario

10Source: Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections

Webb

Hill

Duval

Bell

Frio

Kerr

Kenedy

Ellis

Uvalde

Leon

Bee

Bexar

Erath

Jack

Starr

HuntWise

Zavala

Dimmit

Kimble

La Salle

Medina

LlanoMilam

Travis Lee

Mills

Falls

Collin

Edwards

Jones

Taylor

Burnet

Coryell

Brown

Young

Real

Dallas

Nueces

Matagorda

Zapata

Coleman

Parker

Mason

Navarro

Kleberg

Denton

Bosque

Harris

DeWitt

Lavaca

Hays

Tarrant

Brooks

Atascosa

Runnels

Goliad

Concho

Wharton

Fayette

Haskell

Gillespie

CalhounLive Oak

Menard

Wilson

McMullen

Victoria

San Saba

Jim Hogg

Bastrop

Gonzales

Grimes

Eastland

Kinney

Colorado

Williamson

Austin

Karnes

Blanco

Callahan

Refugio

Anderson

McCulloch

Jackson

McLennan

Stephens Palo Pinto

Walker

Hamilton

Bandera

Kaufman

Brazoria

Limestone

Nolan

Freestone

Fort Bend

Comanche

Jim Wells

Johnson

KendallComal

Henderson

Sutton

Van Zandt

Fisher

Brazos

Robertson

Stonewall

Hood

Hidalgo

Shackelford

Willacy

Burleson

Hopkins

Lampasas

Guadalupe

Caldwell

Coke

San Patricio

Madison

Washington

Delta

WoodRains

KnoxKing FanninArcherBaylor Grayson

Maverick

Waller

HoustonTom Green

Throckmorton

Aransas

Montgomery

Schleicher

Cooke

Somervell

Rockwall

Clay Montague

Cherokee

Projected population change 2010-2030, LCRA Counties, 1.0 Migration Scenario

11

LegendNumeric Change 1Numeric Change 2010-2030 1.0 Migration

-55-0

1-20,000

20,001-75,000

75,001-125,000

125,001-540,000

Numeric change .5 Numerica Change 2010-2030 .5 Migration

-99-0

1-20,000

20,001-75,000

75,001-125,000

125,001-325,000

Percent change .5Percent Change 2010-2030 .5 Migration

-3-0%

1-25%

26-50%

51-75%

75-82%

Percent change 1.0Percent Change 2010-2030 1.0 Migration

-3-0%

1-25%

26-50%

51-75%

76-160%

Source: Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections

Webb

Hill

Duval

Bell

Frio

Kerr

Kenedy

Ellis

Uvalde

Leon

Bee

Bexar

Erath

Jack

Starr

HuntWise

Zavala

Dimmit

Kimble

La Salle

Medina

LlanoMilam

Travis Lee

Mills

Falls

Collin

Edwards

Jones

Taylor

Burnet

Coryell

Brown

Young

Real

Dallas

Nueces

Matagorda

Zapata

Coleman

Parker

Mason

Navarro

Kleberg

Denton

Bosque

Harris

DeWitt

Lavaca

Hays

Tarrant

Brooks

Atascosa

Runnels

Goliad

Concho

Wharton

Fayette

Haskell

Gillespie

CalhounLive Oak

Menard

Wilson

McMullen

Victoria

San Saba

Jim Hogg

Bastrop

Gonzales

Grimes

Eastland

Kinney

Colorado

Williamson

Austin

Karnes

Blanco

Callahan

Refugio

Anderson

McCulloch

Jackson

McLennan

Stephens Palo Pinto

Walker

Hamilton

Bandera

Kaufman

Brazoria

Limestone

Nolan

Freestone

Fort Bend

Comanche

Jim Wells

Johnson

KendallComal

Henderson

Sutton

Van Zandt

Fisher

Brazos

Robertson

Stonewall

Hood

Hidalgo

Shackelford

Willacy

Burleson

Hopkins

Lampasas

Guadalupe

Caldwell

Coke

San Patricio

Madison

Washington

Delta

WoodRains

KnoxKing FanninArcherBaylor Grayson

Maverick

Waller

HoustonTom Green

Throckmorton

Aransas

Montgomery

Schleicher

Cooke

Somervell

Rockwall

Clay Montague

CherokeeLegendPercent change .5Percent Change 2010-2030 .5 Migration

-3-0%

1-25%

26-50%

51-75%

75-82%

Projected percent population change 2010-2030, LCRA Counties, 0.5 Migration Scenario

12Source: Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections

Webb

Hill

Duval

Bell

Frio

Kerr

Kenedy

Ellis

Uvalde

Leon

Bee

Bexar

Erath

Jack

Starr

HuntWise

Zavala

Dimmit

Kimble

La Salle

Medina

LlanoMilam

Travis Lee

Mills

Falls

Collin

Edwards

Jones

Taylor

Burnet

Coryell

Brown

Young

Real

Dallas

Nueces

Matagorda

Zapata

Coleman

Parker

Mason

Navarro

Kleberg

Denton

Bosque

Harris

DeWitt

Lavaca

Hays

Tarrant

Brooks

Atascosa

Runnels

Goliad

Concho

Wharton

Fayette

Haskell

Gillespie

CalhounLive Oak

Menard

Wilson

McMullen

Victoria

San Saba

Jim Hogg

Bastrop

Gonzales

Grimes

Eastland

Kinney

Colorado

Williamson

Austin

Karnes

Blanco

Callahan

Refugio

Anderson

McCulloch

Jackson

McLennan

Stephens Palo Pinto

Walker

Hamilton

Bandera

Kaufman

Brazoria

Limestone

Nolan

Freestone

Fort Bend

Comanche

Jim Wells

Johnson

KendallComal

Henderson

Sutton

Van Zandt

Fisher

Brazos

Robertson

Stonewall

Hood

Hidalgo

Shackelford

Willacy

Burleson

Hopkins

Lampasas

Guadalupe

Caldwell

Coke

San Patricio

Madison

Washington

Delta

WoodRains

KnoxKing FanninArcherBaylor Grayson

Maverick

Waller

HoustonTom Green

Throckmorton

Aransas

Montgomery

Schleicher

Cooke

Somervell

Rockwall

Clay Montague

CherokeeLegendPercent change .5Percent Change 2010-2030 .5 Migration

-3-0%

1-25%

26-50%

51-75%

75-82%

Projected percent population change 2010-2030, LCRA Counties, 1.0 Migration Scenario

13Source: Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections

Projected percent population change 2010-2030, LCRA Counties, 0.5 and 1.0 migration scenarios

Menard

Lavaca

Real

Brown

Mason

De Witt

San Saba

Mills

Kimble

Colorado

McCulloch

Llano

Gonzales

Washington

Burleson

Lee

Kerr

Fayette

Goliad

Lampasas

Bandera

Gillespie

Travis

Blanco

Burnet

Austin

Caldwell

Wilson

Kendall

Waller

Comal

Guadalupe

Bastrop

Williamson

Hays

-20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180%

.5 Migration

1.0 Migration

14

Source: Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections

Menard Real

Mason Lavaca

Mills Kimble

San Saba McCulloch

De Witt Goliad

Colorado Brown

Llano Lee

Burleson Gonzales

Blanco Lampasas

Fayette Bandera

Washington Gillespie

Kerr Austin

Burnet Caldwell

Kendall Wilson Waller

Bastrop Comal

Guadalupe Hays

Travis Williamson

-100000 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000

0.5 Migation1.0 Migration

15

Projected population change 2010-2030, LCRA Counties, 0.5 and 1.0 migration scenarios

Annualized projected percent change in households by tenure, 2010-2030, 0.5 migration scenario

HaysWilliamsonGuadalupe

WallerCaldwell

WilsonBastrop

ComalKendallAustinTravis

BurnetLee

LampasasBlanco

GonzalesBanderaBurleson

WashingtonFayetteGoliad

GillespieKerr

BrownMcCulloch

ColoradoDe Witt

San SabaKimbleLavacaMason

MenardMillsReal

Llano

-0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5%

Annual change in renter HH

Annual change in owner HH

16

Source: Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections

Annualized projected percent change in households by tenure, 2010-2030, 0.5 migration scenario

BurnetLee

LampasasBlanco

GonzalesBanderaBurleson

WashingtonFayetteGoliad

GillespieKerr

BrownMcCulloch

ColoradoDe Witt

San SabaKimbleLavacaMason

MenardMillsReal

Llano

-0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0%

Annual change in renter HHs

Annual change in owner HHs

17

Annualized projected percent change in households by tenure, 2010-2030, 0.5 migration scenario

Hays

Williamson

Guadalupe

Waller

Caldwell

Wilson

Bastrop

Comal

Kendall

Austin

Travis

Burnet

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5%

Annual change in renter HHs

Annual change in owner HHs

18

Source: Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections

Legendtl_2010_48_county10AnnpctchrentHH

less than 0

0-1%

1.1-1.5%

1.6-3.0%

3.1-4.1%

tl_2010_48_county10AnnpctchownHH

-0.002635 - 0.000000

0.000001 - 0.010000

0.010001 - 0.015000

0.015001 - 0.030000

0.030001 - 0.042460

tl_2010_48_county10

Webb

Hill

Duval

Bell

Frio

Kerr

Kenedy

Ellis

Uvalde

Leon

Bee

Bexar

Erath

Jack

Starr

HuntWise

Zavala

Dimmit

Kimble

La Salle

Medina

LlanoMilam

Travis Lee

Mills

Falls

Collin

Edwards

Jones

Taylor

Burnet

Coryell

Brown

Young

Real

Dallas

Nueces

Matagorda

Zapata

Coleman

Parker

Mason

Navarro

Kleberg

Denton

Bosque

Harris

DeWitt

Lavaca

Hays

Tarrant

Brooks

Atascosa

Runnels

Goliad

Concho

Wharton

Fayette

Haskell

Gillespie

CalhounLive Oak

Menard

Wilson

McMullen

Victoria

San Saba

Jim Hogg

Bastrop

Gonzales

Grimes

Eastland

Kinney

Colorado

Williamson

Austin

Karnes

Blanco

Callahan

Refugio

Anderson

McCulloch

Jackson

McLennan

Stephens Palo Pinto

Walker

Hamilton

Bandera

Kaufman

Brazoria

Limestone

Nolan

Freestone

Fort Bend

Comanche

Jim Wells

Johnson

KendallComal

Henderson

Sutton

Van Zandt

Fisher

Brazos

Robertson

Stonewall

Hood

Hidalgo

Shackelford

Willacy

Burleson

Hopkins

Lampasas

Guadalupe

Caldwell

Coke

San Patricio

Madison

Washington

Delta

WoodRains

KnoxKing FanninArcherBaylor Grayson

Maverick

Waller

HoustonTom Green

Throckmorton

Aransas

Montgomery

Schleicher

Cooke

Somervell

Rockwall

Clay Montague

Cherokee

Projected annual percent renter household change 2010-2030, LCRA Counties, 0.5 Migration Scenario

19Source: Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections

Webb

Hill

Duval

Bell

Frio

Kerr

Kenedy

Ellis

Uvalde

Leon

Bee

Bexar

Erath

Jack

Starr

HuntWise

Zavala

Dimmit

Kimble

La Salle

Medina

LlanoMilam

Travis Lee

Mills

Falls

Collin

Edwards

Jones

Taylor

Burnet

Coryell

Brown

Young

Real

Dallas

Nueces

Matagorda

Zapata

Coleman

Parker

Mason

Navarro

Kleberg

Denton

Bosque

Harris

DeWitt

Lavaca

Hays

Tarrant

Brooks

Atascosa

Runnels

Goliad

Concho

Wharton

Fayette

Haskell

Gillespie

CalhounLive Oak

Menard

Wilson

McMullen

Victoria

San Saba

Jim Hogg

Bastrop

Gonzales

Grimes

Eastland

Kinney

Colorado

Williamson

Austin

Karnes

Blanco

Callahan

Refugio

Anderson

McCulloch

Jackson

McLennan

Stephens Palo Pinto

Walker

Hamilton

Bandera

Kaufman

Brazoria

Limestone

Nolan

Freestone

Fort Bend

Comanche

Jim Wells

Johnson

KendallComal

Henderson

Sutton

Van Zandt

Fisher

Brazos

Robertson

Stonewall

Hood

Hidalgo

Shackelford

Willacy

Burleson

Hopkins

Lampasas

Guadalupe

Caldwell

Coke

San Patricio

Madison

Washington

Delta

WoodRains

KnoxKing FanninArcherBaylor Grayson

Maverick

Waller

HoustonTom Green

Throckmorton

Aransas

Montgomery

Schleicher

Cooke

Somervell

Rockwall

Clay Montague

Cherokee

Projected annual percent owner household change 2010-2030, LCRA Counties, 0.5 Migration Scenario

20Source: Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections

Legendtl_2010_48_county10AnnpctchrentHH

less than 0

0-1%

1.1-1.5%

1.6-3.0%

3.1-4.1%

tl_2010_48_county10AnnpctchownHH

-0.002635 - 0.000000

0.000001 - 0.010000

0.010001 - 0.015000

0.015001 - 0.030000

0.030001 - 0.042460

tl_2010_48_county10

21

Demographics and Destiny

22

Contact

Office: (512) 463-8390 or (210) 458-6530Email: Lloyd.Potter@osd.state.tx.usInternet: http://osd.state.tx.us

Lloyd Potter, Ph.D.