TETRAPARTITE 2008

Defra update

Bob Watson

Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

Current evidence spend

2008/09 R&D Budget - £132m

30.4

3527.6

33.3

6.5Climate Change

Animal Health & Welfare

Agri-Food

Natural Environment

Strategy & Evidence

Future evidence spend

A more strategic management of Defra’s evidence (R&D – currently very weak in social sciences, monitoring, surveillance) that recognizes that each of the key areas of interest to Defra are inter-connected, i.e., climate change, natural environment and food and farming:

• Enabling and fostering a more cohesive cross-Defra view of strategic evidence issues – must be placed within a UK – LWEC and international perspective

• Ensuring investment in evidence informs and supports delivery of Defra strategy (policy formulation and implementation)

• Determining effective funding/ management processes and governance

Selected topics

• Agriculture and climate change

• Food chain programme

• Ecosystems approach

• Bluetongue

• Bovine TB

• Living With Environmental Change

• EU collaboration – ERA-NETs

• UK Collaborative on Development Science

• Foresight Programme: Tackling Obesities: Future Choices

• Food Security and Biofuels

Agriculture and climate change:adaptation and mitigation

Need to reduce the vulnerability and increase resilience to increased incidence of extreme events, greater climate variability, hotter and drier summers

• Breed new varieties (temperature, drought, pest, salinity tolerant traits) • Water harvesting• Agricultural practices, e.g., planting times• Insulate animal housing

Adaptation

Mitigation

Need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the agricultural sector, especially methane and nitrous oxide

Now:• Non exceedance of crop N requirements• Appropriate timing/conditions for manure application• Increase livestock nutrient use efficiency• Anaerobic digestion technology for manures/slurries

Future:• Nitrification inhibitors• Feed supplements

Climate change impacts are now inevitable: adaptation is about how we respond – the less mitigation, the more

adaptation is required

1°C 2°C 5°C4°C3°C

Sea level rise threatens major cities

Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly developing regions

FoodFood

WaterWater

EcosystemsEcosystems

Risk of Abrupt and Major Risk of Abrupt and Major Irreversible ChangesIrreversible Changes

Global temperature change (relative to pre-industrial)0°C

Falling yields in many developed regions

Rising number of species face extinction

Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and abrupt, large-scale shifts in the climate system

Significant decreases in water availability in many areas, including Mediterranean and Southern Africa

Small glaciers disappear – water supplies threatened in several areas

Extensive Damage to Coral Reefs

Extreme WeatherExtreme WeatherRising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat waves

Possible rising yields in some high latitude regions

The risk of serious irreversible impacts increases strongly as temperatures increase

Stern Review (2006)

Anticipated Increase in UK Summer Temperatures: By the 2040s, 2003 will be “normal” - the climate is also expected to be much wetter in the winter and drier in the summer

observationsHadCM3 Medium-High (SRES A2)

2003

2040s

2060s

Tem

per

atu

re a

no

mal

y (w

rt 1

961-

90)

°C

Hadley Centre

Food Chain Programme – “Managing the environmental sustainability of UK food consumption and production”

Reducing the global environmental impact of UK food production/ consumption

• Measuring GHG emissions (embodied) from food British Standards Institute methodology Pre farm gate to manufacturing Distribution and retailing

Food preparation and consumption

• Local/regional vs imported foods Assessing environmental impact of national vs imported

7 commodities GHGs and ecosystem services

Influencing consumers re food purchasing and waste Minimize waste

Ecosystems approach

“To embed an ecosystems approach to conserving,

managing and enhancing the natural environment

across policy-making and delivery”

• Identifying opportunities for mainstreaming an ecosystems

approach

• Using case studies that demonstrate the benefits of taking

an ecosystems approach

• Developing ways of valuing ecosystem services

• Developing a robust evidence base

MA Framework

Direct Drivers

Indirect Drivers

EcosystemServices

Human Well-being

Direct Drivers of Change Changes in land use Species introduction or removal

Technology adaptation and use

External inputs (e.g., irrigation)

Resource consumption Climate change Natural physical and biological drivers (e.g., volcanoes)

Indirect Drivers of Change Demographic Economic (globalization, trade, market and policy framework)

Sociopolitical (governance and institutional framework)

Science and Technology Cultural and Religious

Human Well-being and Poverty Reduction

Basic material for a good life

Health Good Social Relations Security Freedom of choice and action

Consequences of Ecosystem Change for Human Well-being

Bluetongue outbreak

• Wind plume of infected midges on 4-5 August 2007 into East Anglia

• UK declared BTV infected 22 September 2007

• 130 infected premises at 22 May 2008

Government response

• Contingency plans implemented

• Communication on bluetongue and its

effects

• Movement restrictions to control spread

• Monitoring, scanning and targeted

surveillance of bluetongue spread and

midge activity

• Testing all imported ruminants for

bluetongue

Response

Next steps

• Control by vaccination

• Eradication?

• Research and disease response

needs will continue

Research and diagnosis of Bluetongue

Defra research projects

Diagnostic laboratory for BTV

Research focus:• Epidemiology of bluetongue

- Including predictive modelling of BTV, vaccination studies

• Midge characteristics and spread of the vectors

• Molecular characterisation of the BTV genome- Diagnostic methods and molecular epidemiology studies

• Questions on the role of “global warming”

- Further incursions and potential for establishment in high latitudes

- Incursion of other vector-borne disease

Bovine TB

• Bovine TB is a serious issue in several parts of UK

• Issue is how to deal with the spread – scientific, economic and social

issues

• Animal movement

• Cull Badgers

• Vaccination

• Injectable badger vaccine – 2010 – very costly

• Oral badger vaccine - 2014

• Injectable cattle vaccine – 2015, but would require a DIVA test and change in EU

policy

• Culling can reduce the incidence of bovine TB, but issues of scale

• Greater than 300 sq kms, 80% coverage, longer than 4 years, soft or hard

boundaries

Living With Environmental Change

Multi-Government Department – Multi-Research Council

£1 billion over 10 years

Six objectives

• Climate Change

• Ecosystems and Human Well-Being

• Development (Water and Food)

• Plant, Animal and Human Health)

• Infrastructure and Transportation

• Behaviour and Ideals

EU Collaboration: ERA-Nets

“Developing and strengthening the coordination of public research programmes carried out at national or at regional level”

Defra participation in FP6 ERA-Nets includes:

• BiodivERsA – €20m joint research call to tackle biodiversity decline in Europe

• EUPHRESCO - €1m joint calls on plant health research

FP7 ERA-Net

• EMIDA – New EU network to coordinate research on emerging and major infectious diseases of livestock

UK Collaborative on Development Science

“Funders and scientists working together to make a difference to the lives of the World’s

poorest people”

Three key areas of work already underway:

• Improving relevance of climate change research to

developing countries by mapping and characterising all

UK initiatives

• Foresight and horizon scanning to highlight developing

country S&T needs

• Reviewing UK research capacity to facilitate effective

collaboration with developing countries

UK Foresight Programme“Tackling Obesities: Future Choices”

Why a project on obesity?

Female

Male

Data shownfor England and Scotland

Source: IOTF

1994-96 1997-99 2000-02

Policy implications

• Most adults in the UK are already overweight. Modern living insures every generation is heavier than the last – “Passive Obesity”

• By 2050 60% of men and 50% of women could be clinically obese. Without action, the costs of overweight and obesity will rise to £49.9 billion p.a.

• The obesity epidemic cannot be prevented by individual action alone and demands a societal approach

• Tackling obesity requires far greater change than anything tried so far, and at multiple levels; personal, family, community and population

• Preventing obesity is a societal challenge, similar to climate change. It requires partnership between government, science, business, and civil society

Key messages

The government response to the threat of obesity

• Revised obesity target to reflect a broader ambition to achieve and maintain a healthy weight

• Established dedicated Obesity Unit within government reporting to a cross-departmental Ministerial Group and Cabinet Committee

• Obesity Unit supported by external Expert Advisory Group, Obesity Observatory and a Delivery Group

• Plans to establish a National Partnership with stakeholders

• Cross-government obesity strategy - Healthy Weight, Healthy Lives informed by the Foresight report

Policy options

(i) Foresight ‘promising’ areas• Investment in early life

interventions

• Controlling the availability of and exposure to obesogenic foodand drink

• Increased walkability/ cyclability of the built environment

• Increasing responsibility of organisations for health of employees

• Targeting health interventions for those at high risk

(ii) New Obesity Strategy• Children: health, weight and

growth

• Promoting healthier food choices

• Building physical activity into our lives

• Creating incentives for better health

• Personalised advice and support

Future Foresight Studies

• Land Use

• Food and Farming (UK and Global)

• Migration

The issue of water will be central to food and farming and migration

Food Security Drivers of the recent increase in food prices

• Increased demand from rapidly developing countries, e.g.,

China

• Poor harvests due to variable weather - possibly related to

human-induced climate change

• Increased use of biofuels, especially maize in the US

• High energy prices, hence fertilizer prices

• Export bans from some large exporting countries

• Speculation on the commodity markets

Key question is whether this is a blip or a harbinger

of the future

Biofuels

• Two major sources of biofuels• Bioethanol from sugar and maize

• Biodiesel from palm oil, soy and rapeseed

• Rarely economic - normally heavily subsidized

• Serious questions regarding environmental

sustainability• Greenhouse gas emissions - direct and indirect emissions

• Loss of biodiversity, soil and water degradation

• Serious Questions regarding social sustainability• Food price increases

• Involuntary displacement of small-scale farmers by large-scale plantations