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Testing Identifying Assumptions inNonseparable Panel Data Models
Dalia Ghanem, UC Davis
May 22, 2015
Motivation
I By allowing us to observe the same individuals over time, panel data allow usto identify causal effects under weaker assumptions.
I Nonparametric identification in nonseparable panel data models has receivedconsiderable attention in econometrics.
“Focused”: Altonji and Matzkin (2005), Athey and Imbens (2006), Bester andHansen (2009), Hoderlein and White (2012), Graham and Powell (2012),Chernozhukov et al (2013)“Structural”: Evdokimov (2010), Evdokimov (2011)
I This paper proposes specification tests of identifying assumptions (“generalizedfirst-differencing”).
Motivation
Example: Effect of a Master’s Degree
1 2
Time Period
Ave
rage
Ear
ning
s
Group AGroup B
“Generalized First-Differencing”Average Partial Effect will be identified from
E [Yi2 − Yi1|Group = A]− E [Yi2 − Yi1|Group = B]
through restrictions imposed on the model, Yit = ξt(Xit ,Ai ,Uit)
Motivation
Example: Effect of a Master’s Degree
1 2
Time Period
Ave
rage
Ear
ning
s
Group AGroup B
“Generalized First-Differencing”Average Partial Effect will be identified from
E [Yi2 − Yi1|Group = A]− E [Yi2 − Yi1|Group = B]
through restrictions imposed on the model, Yit = ξt(Xit ,Ai ,Uit)
Motivation
I Identification through “Generalized First-Differencing”- Restrictions on Distribution of Ai ,Uit |Xi and ξt behavior across t
e.g. Time homogeneity (Chernozhukov et al, 2013), Correlated random effects(Altonji and Matzkin, 2005; Bester and Hansen, 2009)
- TESTABLE restrictions on the distribution of the outcome variable
Related Literature: Athey and Imbens (2006), Evdokimov (2010, 2011)
I Specification Tests- Extension of the classical two-sample problem to panel data with demeaning- Bootstrap-adjusted Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) and Cramer-von-Mises (CM)
statisticsRelated LiteratureNonparametric Specification Testing: monotonicity (Hoderlein Su and White, 2013), separability(Hoderlein and Mammen, 2009; Lu and White, 2014; Su, Tu and Ullah, 2015)Bootstrap Adjusted KS and CM: Andrews (1997), Abadie (2002)
I Empirical Relevance- Nonparametric Identification: no functional form assumptions on the
relationship between outcome variable, regressors and unobservables(“model-free”)
- Observational Panel Data: Test of Time Homogeneity- “Experimental” Panel Data: Test of Conditional Random Effects
Road Map
“Generalized First-Differencing”Model and Object of InterestIdentification and Testable Restrictions
Testing Identifying AssumptionsAsymptotic ResultsMonte Carlo Study
Empirical Illustration: Returns to Schooling
Concluding Remarks
Application
“Generalized First-Differencing”: Model and Object of Interest
ModelFor i = 1, 2, . . . , n, t = 1, 2
Yit = ξt(Xit ,Ai ,Uit)
ξt is the structural function, Xit has finite support, X.{Yit ,Xit}i,t are observable.
Object of InterestAPE of a Subpopulation Xi = (Xi1,Xi2) = (x , x ′) “Switchers”
βt(x → x ′|Xi = (x , x ′)) = E [Yitx′ − Yit
x |Xi = (x , x ′)]
=
∫(ξt(x
′, a, u)− ξt(x , a, u))︸ ︷︷ ︸∆ Str. Function due to ∆x
d FAi ,Uit |Xi(a, u|(x , x ′))︸ ︷︷ ︸
Unobs Distr of Switchers
Identification of APE = appropriately averaging over ∆Y due to ∆X
holding Str. Function and Unobs. Distr. Fixed
(ceteris paribus)
“Generalized First-Differencing”: Identification and Testable Restrictions
1 2Time
Ave
rage
Ear
ning
s
Group A
Group B
Lemma 2.1 “Generalized First-Differencing”Let Assumptions 2.1 and 2.2 in the paper hold.
βt(x → x′|Xi = (x, x′)) = E [Yi2 − Yi1|Xi = (x, x′)]︸ ︷︷ ︸Average ∆Y for Switchers
− E [Yi2 − Yi1|Xi = (x, x)]︸ ︷︷ ︸Average ∆Y for Stayers
if and only if
∫ ∆Y due to ∆t holding x fixed︷ ︸︸ ︷(ξ2(x, a, u2)− ξ1(x, a, u1))
× (fAi ,Ui1,Ui2|Xi (a, u1, u2|(x, x′))− fAi ,Ui1,Ui2|Xi (a, u1, u2|(x, x))︸ ︷︷ ︸∆ Unobserv. Distr. due to ∆X (Switchers vs. Stayers)
)d(a, u1, u2) = 0.
“Generalized First-Differencing”: Identification and Testable Restrictions
1 2Time
Ave
rage
Ear
ning
s
Group A
Group B
Lemma 2.1 “Generalized First-Differencing”Let Assumptions 2.1 and 2.2 in the paper hold.
βt(x → x′|Xi = (x, x′)) = E [Yi2 − Yi1|Xi = (x, x′)]︸ ︷︷ ︸Average ∆Y for Switchers
− E [Yi2 − Yi1|Xi = (x, x)]︸ ︷︷ ︸Average ∆Y for Stayers
if and only if
∫ ∆Y due to ∆t holding x fixed︷ ︸︸ ︷(ξ2(x, a, u2)− ξ1(x, a, u1))
× (fAi ,Ui1,Ui2|Xi (a, u1, u2|(x, x′))− fAi ,Ui1,Ui2|Xi (a, u1, u2|(x, x))︸ ︷︷ ︸∆ Unobserv. Distr. due to ∆X (Switchers vs. Stayers)
)d(a, u1, u2) = 0.
“Generalized First-Differencing”: Identification and Testable Restrictions
Theorem 2.1Fixed Effects: Identification and Testable Restrictions (T = 2)Let Assumptions 2.1 and 2.2 in the paper hold.If, in addition,
Yi t = ξ(Xit ,Ai ,Uit) + λt(Xit) (Stationarity in Unobservables)
Ui1|Xi ,Aid= Ui2|Xi ,Ai , (Time Homogeneity)
then(i) (Identification of APE)∫
(ξ2(x , a, u2)− ξ1(x , a, u1))
× (fAi ,Ui1,Ui2|Xi(a, u1, u2|(x , x ′))− fAi ,Ui1,Ui2|Xi
(a, u1, u2|(x , x)))d(a, u1, u2) = 0.
(ii) (Testable Restriction)
FYi1−λ1(x)|Xi(.|(x , x)) = FYi2−λ2(x)|Xi
(.|(x , x)), ∀x ∈ X
“Generalized First-Differencing”: Identification and Testable Restrictions
Theorem 2.1Fixed Effects: Identification and Testable Restrictions (T = 2)Let Assumptions 2.1 and 2.2 in the paper hold.If, in addition,
Yi t = ξ(Xit ,Ai ,Uit) + λt(Xit) (Stationarity in Unobservables)
Ui1|Xi ,Aid= Ui2|Xi ,Ai , (Time Homogeneity)
then(i) (Identification of APE)∫
(ξ2(x , a, u2)− ξ1(x , a, u1))
× (fAi ,Ui1,Ui2|Xi(a, u1, u2|(x , x ′))− fAi ,Ui1,Ui2|Xi
(a, u1, u2|(x , x)))d(a, u1, u2) = 0.
“Intution”: ξ2(x , a, u)− ξ1(x , a, u) = λ2(x)− λ1(x), identified from Stayers
(ii) (Testable Restrictions)
FYi1−λ1(x)|Xi(.|(x , x)) = FYi2−λ2(x)|Xi
(.|(x , x)), ∀x ∈ X
“Intution”: λt(x) is the only source of ∆ across t forstayers’ distribution of outcome variable
“Generalized First-Differencing”: Identification and Testable Restrictions
Time Homogeneity in our Example
Density of Appropriately Demeaned Earnings ofGroup A (Switchers) and Group B (Stayers)
t = 1 t = 2
I Group A’s demeaned earnings distribution changed across time due to Master’sDegree (Identification of APE)
I Group B’s demeaned earnings distribution does not change across time(Testable Restriction)
- Suitable for observational panel data- Extends the notion of “fixed effects” to nonseparable models (Chernozhukov et al,2013; Hoderlein and White, 2012)
“Generalized First-Differencing”: Identification and Testable Restrictions
Time Homogeneity in our Example
Density of Appropriately Demeaned Earnings ofGroup A (Switchers) and Group B (Stayers)
t = 1 t = 2
I Group A’s demeaned earnings distribution changed across time due to Master’sDegree (Identification of APE)
I Group B’s demeaned earnings distribution does not change across time(Testable Restriction)
- Suitable for observational panel data- Extends the notion of “fixed effects” to nonseparable models (Chernozhukov et al,2013; Hoderlein and White, 2012)
“Generalized First-Differencing”: Identification and Testable Restrictions
Theorem 2.2Correlated Random Effects: Identification & Testable Restrictions(T = 2)Let Assumptions 2.1 and 2.2 in the paper hold (Yi t = ξt(Xit ,Ai ,Uit)).
If Ai ,Ui1,Ui2|Xid= Ai ,Ui1,Ui2|Xi1,
then(i) (Identification of APE)∫
(ξ2(x , a, u2)− ξ1(x , a, u1))
× (fAi ,Ui1,Ui2|Xi(a, u1, u2|(x , x ′))− fAi ,Ui1,Ui2|Xi
(a, u1, u2|(x , x)))d(a, u1, u2) = 0
(ii) (Testable Restriction)
FYi1|Xi(.|(x , x ′)) = FYi1|Xi
(.|(x , x)), ∀x , x ′ ∈ X, x 6= x ′
“Generalized First-Differencing”: Identification and Testable Restrictions
Theorem 2.2Correlated Random Effects: Identification & Testable Restrictions(T = 2)Let Assumptions 2.1 and 2.2 in the paper hold (Yi t = ξt(Xit ,Ai ,Uit)).
If Ai ,Ui1,Ui2|Xid= Ai ,Ui1,Ui2|Xi1, (Conditional-Random-Effects)
then(i) (Identification of APE)∫
(ξ2(x , a, u2)− ξ1(x , a, u1))
× (fAi ,Ui1,Ui2|Xi(a, u1, u2|(x , x ′))− fAi ,Ui1,Ui2|Xi
(a, u1, u2|(x , x))︸ ︷︷ ︸=0
)d(a, u1, u2) = 0
“Intuition”: The two subpopulations are the same in terms of unobservables. Xi2
is randomly assigned conditional on Xi1
(ii) (Testable Restriction)
FYi1|Xi(.|(x , x ′)) = FYi1|Xi
(.|(x , x)), ∀x , x ′ ∈ X, x 6= x ′
“Intuition”: Distribution of the outcome variable is the same for switchers andstayers before the ‘switch.’
“Generalized First-Differencing”: Identification and Testable Restrictions
Conditional Random Effects in our Example
Density of Earnings ofGroup A (Switchers) and Group B (Stayers)
t = 1 t = 2
I Group A and Group B are the same subpopulation in terms of unobservabledistribution. (Identification of APE)
I The distribution of the outcome variable across time is changing for both groups.
I Group A and Group B have the same distribution whenever they have the sametreatment status. (Testable Restriction)
- Suitable for experimental and quasi-experimental settings, e.g. test for attrition
Testing Identifying Assumptions
Identifying Assumptions⇒ Equality restrictions on the conditional distribution of the outcome variableFYit |Xi
(.|x) t = 1, 2, ...,T , x ∈ XT
Basic Testing ProblemExtension of the classical two-sample problem
I Time Homogeneity: dependence across time and demeaningI Conditional Random Effects: K-sample problem
Bootstrap-Adjusted P-values for StatisticsKolmogorov-Smirnov (sup-norm ‖f (y)‖∞,Y = supy∈Y |f (y)|)Cramer-von-Mises (L2-norm ‖f (y)|2,φ =
∫Y f (y)2φ(y)dy)
Classical Two-Sample
Testing Identifying Assumptions: Basic Bootstrap Procedure
Let Yi = (Yi1, . . . ,YiT ) and Xi = (Xi1, . . . ,XiT ).
1. Compute the statistic Jn for {{Y1,X1}, ..., {Yn,Xn}}, hereinafter the originalsample.
2. Resample n observations with replacement from the original sample. Computethe centered statistic, Jbn .
3. Repeat 1-2 B times.
4. Calculate
pn =B∑
b=1
1{Jbn > Jn}.
Reject if p-value is smaller than some significance level α.
Intuition:
(1) cross-sectional i.i.d. assumption
(2) resampling the entire sample, reflecting randomness in stayers and movers
(3) paired-sample problem is an extension of one-sample problem
Testing Identifying Assumptions: Asymptotic Results(Time Homogeneity)
Time Homogeneity with a Parallel Trend
Hpt0 : FYi1|∆Xi
(.|0) = FYi2−∆λ|∆Xi(.|0) (aggregates over all stayers)
Statistics of the Original Sample
KSptn,Y =
∥∥Fn,Yi1|∆Xi(y |0)− Fn,Yi2−∆λn|∆Xi
(y |0)∥∥∞,Y
CMptn,φ =
∥∥Fn,Yi1|∆Xi(y |0)− Fn,Yi2−∆λn|∆Xi
(y |0)∥∥
2,φ
Centered Stats
TheoremGiven that {(Yi ,X
′i )}ni=1 is an iid sequence, |X | = K , P(∆Xi = 0) > 0,
FYit |∆Xi(.|0) is non-degenerate for t = 1, 2, and supy∈Y |fYit
(y)| <∞ for t = 1, 2,
the procedure described in 1-4 for KSptn,Y and CMpt
n,φ to test H10
(i) provides correct asymptotic size α
(ii) is consistent against any fixed alternative.
Hadamard
∆λ = E [Yi2 − Yi1|∆Xi = 0], ∆λn is its sample analogue, and ∆λn,b is its bth bootstrap sample analogue.
fYitis the marginal density of Yit .
Testing Identifying Assumptions: Asymptotic Results(Correlated-Random-Effects)
Example: Conditional-Random-Effects with Binary Regressor
Hcre0 : FYi1|Xi
(.|(x , x ′)) = FYi1|Xi(.|(x , x ′′)),
∀x , x ′, x ′′ ∈ {0, 1}, x ′ 6= x ′′
Statistics of the Original Sample
KS0n,Y = sup
y∈Y
∣∣Fn,Yi1|Xi(y |(0, 0))− Fn,Yi1|Xi
(y |(0, 1))∣∣
KS1n,Y = sup
y∈Y
∣∣Fn,Yi1|Xi(y |(1, 0))− Fn,Yi1|Xi
(y |(1, 1))∣∣
KScren,Y = Pn(Xi1 = 0)KS0
n,Y + Pn(Xi1 = 1)KS1n,Y
Centered Stats
TheoremGiven that {(Yi ,X
′i )}ni=1 is an iid sequence, |X | = K , P(Xi = x) > 0 ∀x ∈ XT ,
FYit |Xiis non-degenerate for t = 1, 2, the procedure described in 1-4 for KScre
n,Y andCMcre
n,φ to test Hcre0
(i) provides correct asymptotic size α
(ii) is consistent against any fixed alternative.
Testing Identifying Assumptions: Monte Carlo Study
Table: Models Considered in the Monte Carlo Design
Model Ai Uit Yit
A Ai = 0.5√TXT + 0.5ψi Uit = εit XT Yit = ξ(Xit ,Ai ,Uit)
B ” ” Yit = ξ(Xit ,Ai ,Uit) + λtC ” ” Yit = ξ(Xit ,Ai ,Uit) + λtsign(Xit)
D Ai = 0.5√TXi1 + 0.5ψi Uit = Xi1εit Yit = ξ(Xit ,Ai ,Uit)σt + λt
Notes: ξ(x, a, u) = µ0 + a + (2 + a)x + u; Xit = {Zit − p(K − 1)}/√
(K − 1)p(1− p),
Ziti.i.d.∼ Binomial(K-1, p); εit
i.i.d.∼ N(0, 1); ψii.i.d.∼ N(0,1); XT ≡
∑Tt=1 Xit/T ; sign(g(x))
= 1{g(x) > 0} − 1{g(x) < 0}; λ1 = 0, σ1 = 1.
(A) Time Homogeneity with no Trend
(B) Time Homogeneity with Nonstochastic Time Effect
(C) Time Homogeneity with Generalized Time Effect
(D) Conditional Random Effects
For each model, we compute the KS and CM statistics assuming
(nt) time homogeneity with no trend (λt(x) = 0 ∀x)
(pt) time homogeneity with nonstochastic time effect (λt(x) = λt ∀x)
(gt) time homogeneity with generalized time effect λt(x)
(cre) conditional random effects
Testing Identifying Assumptions: Monte Carlo Study
Table: Baseline Simulation Results: T = K = 2 (Models A-B)
n=500 n=2000
KS CM KS CM
α 0.025 0.05 0.10 0.025 0.05 0.10 0.025 0.05 0.10 0.025 0.05 0.10
Model A
nt 0.035 0.056 0.110 0.032 0.049 0.114 0.033 0.057 0.101 0.029 0.054 0.108pt 0.013 0.024 0.052 0.022 0.054 0.093 0.021 0.035 0.070 0.032 0.060 0.112gpt 0.003 0.011 0.030 0.011 0.031 0.062 0.007 0.025 0.050 0.033 0.057 0.095cre 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
Model B (λ2 = 0.25)
nt 0.366 0.492 0.630 0.360 0.467 0.590 0.933 0.971 0.989 0.945 0.971 0.993pt 0.014 0.020 0.053 0.019 0.042 0.101 0.024 0.032 0.069 0.034 0.059 0.111gpt 0.003 0.007 0.029 0.018 0.030 0.068 0.007 0.023 0.050 0.029 0.057 0.098cre 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
Model C (λ2 = 0.25)
nt 0.308 0.440 0.598 0.264 0.377 0.511 0.929 0.968 0.988 0.926 0.959 0.982pt 0.342 0.450 0.584 0.344 0.452 0.567 0.970 0.986 0.993 0.967 0.986 0.993gpt 0.003 0.008 0.029 0.017 0.033 0.067 0.009 0.026 0.049 0.032 0.054 0.099cre 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000
Model D (λ2 = 0.5, σ2 = 1.1)
nt 0.985 0.995 1.000 0.925 0.961 0.983 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000pt 0.409 0.531 0.666 0.107 0.165 0.273 0.989 0.993 0.996 0.555 0.692 0.800gpt 0.014 0.032 0.059 0.075 0.130 0.195 0.108 0.169 0.279 0.320 0.428 0.549cre 0.035 0.063 0.114 0.025 0.044 0.106 0.029 0.052 0.109 0.027 0.043 0.092
Model D (λ2 = 0.5, σ2 = 1.2)
nt 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.944 0.971 0.995 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000pt 0.975 0.988 0.996 0.397 0.521 0.665 1.000 1.000 1.000 0.995 1.000 1.000gpt 0.050 0.095 0.173 0.253 0.349 0.456 0.570 0.714 0.833 0.907 0.948 0.982cre 0.035 0.061 0.114 0.025 0.053 0.103 0.035 0.060 0.108 0.029 0.042 0.085
Notes: The table reports the rejection probabilities across 1, 000 simulations for the bootstrap adjustments for the statistics. Bold fontindicates that the model considered satisfies the null hypothesis for the statistic in question. The CM statistic is implemented usingφ as the standard normal density.
Statistics
Testing Identifying Assumptions: Monte Carlo Study
Practical Considerations Considered in MC Study
I Choice of Density in the CM Statisticsimulations suggest improved power by overweighing center of the distribution
I Aggregated vs. Disaggregated Statistics for Time Homogeneity
I Simulation Study Resembling NLSY 1983-1987
“Generalized First-Differencing”Model and Object of InterestIdentification and Testable Restrictions
Testing Identifying AssumptionsAsymptotic ResultsMonte Carlo Study
Empirical Illustration: Returns to Schooling
Concluding Remarks
Empirical Illustration
Over-identification Test for the Linear Fixed Effects Model(Chamberlain, 1984, MCS)
Yit = X ′itβ +Ai + UitE [Uit |Xi ,Ai ] = 0
Ai = X ′i1η1 + · · ·+ X ′iT ηT + Ei
Note that the last equation is just a predictive relationship.
3SLS equivalent for the MCS procedure (Angrist and Newey, 1991)
- NLSY subsample of young men, 1983-1987
- test linear fixed effects model for union-wage and returns to schooling equations(reject the latter)
Empirical Illustration
This paper
- revisit the returns to schooling example using the same NLSY subsample
- test of time homogeneity in the presence of a parallel trend
Table: Descriptive Statistics: Subsample of the NLSY, 1983-1987
1983 1984 1985 1986 1987
Race 0.12Age 21.84
(2.22)HGC 12.34 12.45 12.57 12.57 12.61
(1.77) (1.83) (1.94) (1.94) (1.98)South 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30Urban 0.76 0.77 0.76 0.77 0.76Log Hourly Wage 6.31 6.39 6.50 6.61 6.72
(0.48) (0.49) (0.49) (0.49) (0.50)
Empirical Illustration: Returns to Schooling
Time Homogeneity with a Paralel Trend
Yit = ξ(Sit ,Ai ,Uit) + λt
Uit |Si ,Aid= Ui1|Si ,Ai
Yit is log income, Sit is schooling.
For T = 2,
⇒ H0 : FYi1|∆Si(.|0) = FYi2−∆λ|∆Si
(.|0)
Statistics: KS and CM (φ as standard normal)
Empirical Illustration: Returns to Schooling
Table: Testing Time Homogeneity with a Parallel Trend of Log Earnings (Sit)
Statistic KS CM CM Fφ N(6.5, 0.25) N(6.5, 0.5)
Full Sample 0.30 0.34 0.12
1983-84 0.49 0.16 0.08 0.111984-85 0.12 0.23 0.13 0.091985-86 0.46 0.61 0.56 0.251986-87 0.43 0.40 0.15 0.46
Notes: The above reports p-values of the tests for timehomogeneity using the NLSY subsample, n = 1, 087,where schooling Sit is the sole regressor.
Empirical Illustration: Returns to Schooling
Table: APE of Schooling on Log Hourly Wage
Subsample APE S.E. t-Stat
1983 -84 122 -0.012 0.043 -0.2671984-85 73 0.095 0.055 1.7231985-86 58 0.226 0.060 3.7371986-87 41 -0.012 0.068 -0.179
I violations of linearity
I heterogeneity of response to schooling
⇒ Rejection of the linear FE assumption in Angrist and Newey (1991) may bedriven by misspecification of the linear model.
Concluding Remarks
I Specification Testing for Identifying Assumptions (“GeneralizedFirst-Differencing”)
- Asymptotically valid bootstrap procedure- Bootstrap-adjusted statistics perform well in finite samples
I Empirical Relevance:- “Generalized first-differencing” strategies are natural extensions of the
classical difference-in-difference approach.- Intuition of nonparametric identification is whether the data can identify the
effect of interest, as opposed to a model imposed on the data.- Two potentially useful tests here are time homogeneity and conditional
random effects.
THANK YOU!
Time Homogeneity
Centered Statistics of the bth Bootstrap Sample
KSbn,Y = sup
y∈Y
∣∣∣F n,bYi1|∆Xi
(y |0)− F n,bYi2|∆Xi
(y |0)−{F nYi1|∆Xi
(y |0)− F nYi2|∆Xi
(y |0)}∣∣∣
CMbn,φ =
∫ (F n,bYi1|∆Xi
(y |0)− F n,bYi2|∆Xi
(y |0)−{F nYi1|∆Xi
(y |0)− F nYi2|∆Xi
(y |0)})2
φ(y)dy
Time Homogen
Time Homogeneity with Time Effect
Centered Statistics of the bth Bootstrap Sample
KSbn,Y =
∥∥∥∥F n,bYi1|∆Xi
(y |0)− F n,b
Yi2−∆λn,b|∆Xi(y |0)−
{F nYi1|∆Xi
(y |0)− F nYi2−∆λn|∆Xi
(y |0)}∥∥∥∥∞,Y
CMbn,φ =
∥∥∥∥F n,bYi1|∆Xi
(y |0)− F n,b
Yi2−∆λn,b|∆Xi(y |0)−
{F nYi1|∆Xi
(y |0)− F nYi2−∆λn|∆Xi
(y |0)}∥∥∥∥
2,φ
Time Homogen with TE
Exclusion Restriction
KS0,bn,Y = sup
y∈Y
∣∣∣F n,bYi1|Xi
(y |(0, 0))− F n,bYi1|Xi
(y |(0, 1))−{F nYi1|Xi
(y |(0, 0))− F nYi1|Xi
(y |(0, 1))}∣∣∣
KS1,bn,Y = sup
y∈Y
∣∣∣F n,bYi1|Xi
(y |(1, 0))− F n,bYi1|Xi
(y |(1, 1))−{F nYi1|Xi
(y |(1, 0))− F nYi1|Xi
(y |(1, 1))}∣∣∣
KSbn,Y = Pn(Xi1 = 0)KS
0,bn,Y + Pn(Xi1 = 1)KS
1,bn,Y
Exclusion Restr
Hadamard Derivative
φ(Ft(.|x), λ) = Ft(.− λ|x) (1)
The Hadamard derivative is given byφ′Ft (.|x),λ(x)
(g , ε) = g(.− λ(x))− εft(.− λ(x)|Xi1 = Xi2 = x), where the subscript
Ft(.|x) denotes FYit |Xi(.|(x , x)).
Time Homo TE
Monte Carlo Study: Statistics
KSntn,Y = ‖F1,n(.|∆Xi = 0) − F2,n(.|∆Xi = 0)‖∞,Y (2)
KSptn,Y = ‖F1,n(.|∆Xi = 0) − F2,n(. − λn|∆Xi = 0)‖∞,Y (3)
KSgtn,Y = ‖F1,n(.|∆Xi = 0) − F2,n(., Λn|∆Xi = 0)‖∞,Y (4)
KSexcln,Y = Pn(Xi1 = 0)‖F1,n(.|Xi = (0, 0)) − F1,n(.|Xi = (0, 1))‖∞,Y
+ Pn(Xi1 = 1)‖F1,n(.|Xi = (1, 0)) − F1,n(.|Xi = (1, 1))‖∞,Y (5)
CMntn,φ = ‖F1,n(.|∆Xi = 0) − F2,n(.|∆Xi = 0)‖2,φ (6)
CMptn,φ
= ‖F1,n(.|∆Xi = 0) − F2,n(. − λn|∆Xi = 0)‖2,φ (7)
CMgtn,φ
= ‖F1,n(.|∆Xi = 0) − F2,n(., λ|∆Xi = 0)‖2,φ (8)
CMexcln,φ = Pn(Xi1 = 0)‖F1,n(.|Xi = (0, 0)) − F1,n(.|Xi = (0, 1))‖2,φ
+ Pn(Xi1 = 1)‖F1,n(.|Xi = (1, 0)) − F1,n(.|Xi = (1, 1))‖2,φ. (9)
‖.‖∞,Y is the L∞-norm, ‖.‖2,φ is the L2 norm taken wrt φ.
Models A-D
Testing Identifying Assumptions
Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) Statistic
KSn,m = maxj≤n+m
∣∣∣∣∣n∑
i=1
1{Yi1 ≤W j}n
−m∑i=1
1{Yi1 ≤W j}m
∣∣∣∣∣≡ ‖F n
1 (.)− Fm2 (.)‖∞,n (10)
Cramer-von Mises (CM) Statistic
CMn,m =1
n + m
n+m∑j=1
(n∑
i=1
1{Yi1 ≤W j}n
−m∑i=1
1{Yi1 ≤W j}m
)2
≡ ‖F n1 (.)− Fm
2 (.)‖2,n (11)
{Wj}n+mj=1
are the order statistics of the pooled sample.
Fnt (.) is the empirical cdf of Yit with sample size n. Classical Two-Sample