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Testimony Before the ABI Chapter 11 Reform Commission. Field Hearing 17 th Annual LSTA Conference New York October 17, 2012. Ted Basta SVP, Analysis and Data The Loan Syndications and Trading Association (LSTA). The Size and Importance of the Leveraged Loan and High Yield Bond Markets. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Testimony Before the ABI Chapter 11 Reform
CommissionField Hearing17th Annual LSTA ConferenceNew YorkOctober 17, 2012
Ted BastaSVP, Analysis and DataThe Loan Syndications
and Trading Association (LSTA)
The Size and Importance of
the Leveraged Loan andHigh Yield Bond Markets
Leveraged Loans and High Yield Bonds RepresentMore than 6% of U.S. Fixed Income Assets
Treasury 25%
Municipal 10%
Fed Agencies 6%
Money Market 7%
High Yield Bonds 3%
Leveraged Loans 3%
High Grade Bonds 18%
Mortgage-Related 23%
Asset Backed 5%
Total Size of Fixed Income Market $38 Trillion3
In 2001 the Wall Street Journal Began Covering the Leveraged Loan Market - Today the Leveraged Loan Market Provides Funding to Almost 1,500 Individual Companies
Source: Wall Street Journal
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Number of Companies Accessing Leveraged Loan Market
Source: LSTA/Thomson Reuters LPC MTM Pricing
4
There is More Than $1.5 Trillion in Total Leveraged Debt Outstanding (HY Bonds & Institutional Loans) - With an Estimated $2.7 Trillion Traded Annually by Year-End 2012
Leveraged Debt OutstandingLeveraged Debt Secondary Trading Volume
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
$- $200 $400 $600 $800
$1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600
Institutional First Lien LoansSecond-Lien LoansSr Secured BondsSr Unsecured Bonds
Bill
ions
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
... $-
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
Leveraged Loans HY Bonds
Bill
ions
5Source: S&P Capital IQ LCD Source: Thomson Reuters & LSTA Trade
Data Study
Since 2010, The Leveraged Loan and High Yield Bond MarketsHave Provided Corporate Borrowers With $1.7 Trillion in Funding
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 YTD-9/12
$-
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600 Leveraged Loans High-Yield Bonds
Lend
ing
Volu
me
(Bill
ions
)
6Source: S&P Capital IQ LCD
Senior Secured Loans sit Atop the Capital Structure andOffer Corporate America a Private and Cheaper Source of Funding
Pay
men
t Sen
iorit
y
High
Low
Senior Secured LoansHigh Yield Bonds
Convertible Securities
Preferred Stock
Common Stock
Oct
-09
May
-10
Nov
-10
May
-11
Nov
-11
May
-120%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
6%
8%
Loans Bonds
Primary Market Yields for B-Rated Unsecured Bonds and Institutional Loans
7Source: S&P Capital IQ LCD
The Last Three Default Cycles (1,000 Corporate Defaults)Illustrate the Significance of Capital Structure
Historical US Spec. Grade Default Rate
3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4
0%2%4%6%8%
10%12%14%16%
Average Default Level
Average Recoveries in Three Default Cycles
Avg. 12/89 - 12/92
9/99 - 2/04
1/09 - 8/10
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
80%88%
76% 79%
Leveraged LoansSenior Unsecured BondsSubordinated Bonds
Source: Moody’s Investor Services
Leveraged loans are typically the most senior debt in a company’s capital structure and often have first-lien claim to the company’s assets in the event of bankruptcy.
8
The Distribution of Recoveries Over the Past Two Years AcrossBoth Markets Illustrates the Importance of Senior Security
0-10
>10
-20
>20
-30
>30
-40
>40
-50
>50
-60
>60
-70
>70
-80
>80
-90
>90
-10
0+
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%Distribution of High Yield Bond Recoveries (2010-2012)Distribution of Leveraged Loan Recoveries (2010-2012)
9Source: Fitch Ratings
As the Leveraged Loan and HY Unsecured Bond Markets Seized upin 2009, the Secured Bond Market Became a Major Source of Funding
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 YTD-9/12
$-
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
Secured HY Bonds
Lend
ing
Volu
me
(Bill
ions
)
10Source: S&P Capital IQ LCD
The Leveraged Loan Market
Liquidity and the Lender Base
11
Over the Past 12 Years, The Primary Source of LeveragedLending has Been the Institutional Lender Base
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
13%
87%
Banks Non-banks (institutional lenders)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
235
Total Institutional Loan Lender...
12
Source: S&P Capital IQ LCD
Secondary Trading Liquidity Levels Remained MostlyConstant Before, During and After the US Recession
YE YE YE Ma
Jun-
10 Se De
Jun-
11 Se De
Ma
Jun-
12
$-
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Amount of Outstanding Leveraged LoansAmount in Payment Default or Bankruptcy
Bill
ions
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011 20
1
$-
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
Annual Trade VolumeSize of S&P/LSTA LLIAnnual Turnover
Bill
ions
13Source: S&P Capital IQ LCD Source: S&P/LSTA LLI & LSTA Trade
Data Study
The Secondary Leveraged Loan Market Allows Managersto Actively Trade in Order to Shift Around Risk Allocation
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
BB Rated LoansSingle B Rated LoansCCC Rated Loans
Aver
age
Seco
ndar
y B
id le
vel
$-
$25,000,000,000
$50,000,000,000
$75,000,000,000
$100,000,000,000
$125,000,000,000
$150,000,000,000
$175,000,000,000
Trade Prices (<80)Trade Prices (>=80)
Seco
ndar
y Tr
ade
Volu
me
14Source: LSTA Trade Data StudySource: S&P/LSTA LLI & LSTA/TR LPC
MTM
As Market Conditions Change so Doesthe Lender Base for Leveraged Loans
Share of Non-Bank Leveraged Primary Lending
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%52%
6%
41%
19%
2008 2009 2010 2011
CLO Retail Loan
Funds
Hedge, Dis. &
HY Funds
Finance & Insur.
Co.-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
40%
23%
3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12
Source: S&P Capital IQ LCD15
Hedge, Dis. & HY Funds are Critical in theEffective and Efficient Transfer of Risk
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q120%
25%50%75%
100%75%
68%
87% 86%
63%
94%
64%
Secondary Loan Price Advancers Secondary Loan Price Decliners
16Source: S&P Capital IQ LCD & LSTA/TR LPC MTM Pricing
1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q120%
10%
20%
30%
40%
26%29%
40%33%
22%25% 23%
Hedge, Dis. & HY Fund Share of Primary Le...
Case Studies on Liquidity and Performance in
Bankruptcy
17
Idearc (Orig. Deal Size = $6.5B) & Masonite (Orig. Deal Size = $1.5B) Filed For Bankruptcy in March 2009- Post Bankruptcy, Trade Volumes Subsided as Bid Levels, which Reflect Enterprise Value, Increased & Bid-Ask Spreads Tightened
Dec
-08
Jan-
09
Feb-
09
Mar
-09
Apr
-09
May
-09
June
-09
$-
$200,000,000
$400,000,000
$600,000,000
$800,000,000
$1,000,000,000
$1,200,000,000
Combined Secondary Trade Volume of Both
Companies
0
10
20
30
40
50
0
1
2
3Idearc-TLB-Avg. Bid Idearc-TLB-Bid-Ask Spread
18
Dec-08
Dec-08
Dec-08Jan
-09Jan
-09
Feb-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Mar-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
Apr-09
May-09
May-09Jun
-09Jun
-09Jun
-090
102030405060
0
1
2
3
4Masonite -TLB-Avg. BidMasonite-TLB-Bid-Ask Spread
Source: LSTA Trade Data Study & LSTA/TR LPC MTM
Chrysler Corp. (Orig. Deal Size = $9.5B) & General Growth Prop.(Orig. Deal Size = $2B) Filed For Bankruptcy in April 2009- Post Bankruptcy, Trade Volumes Subsided as Bid Levels, which Reflect Enterprise Value, Increased & Bid-Ask Spreads Tightened
Jan-
09
Feb-
09
Mar
-09
Apr
-09
May
-09
June
-09
Jul-0
9
$-
$100,000,000
$200,000,000
$300,000,000
$400,000,000
$500,000,000
$600,000,000
Combined Secondary Trade Volume of Both
Companies
05
101520253035
01234567
Chrysler Corp-TLB-Avg. BidChrysler Corp-TLB-Avg. Bid-Ask Spread
19
Jan-09Jan
-09Jan
-09
Feb-09
Feb-09
Feb-09
Mar-09
Mar-09
Mar-09
Apr-09
Apr-09
May-09
May-09
May-09
Jun-09Jun
-090
102030405060
0123456
General Growth Properties-TLA-Avg. BidGeneral Growth Properties-TLA-Avg. Bid-Ask Spread
Source: LSTA Trade Data Study & LSTA/TR LPC MTM
Delphi Automotive Corporation Filed for Bankruptcy October, 2005~Hedge Funds Recapitalize the Companyto Allow it to Re-Organize Despite Heavy Volatility
20
Source: LSTA/TR LPC MTM
Jan-
05
Jan-
06
Jan-
07
Jan-
08
Jan-
09
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Bond Avg. BidLoan Avg. Bid: TLB
Oct
-09
Jan-
10M
ar-1
0Ju
n-10
Sep-
10D
ec-1
0M
ar-1
1Ju
n-11
Aug-
11N
ov-1
1Fe
b-12
May
-12
Aug-
12
$-
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
Equity Price
Hedge FundsRecap Company
Filed for Bankruptcy 10/05
Completed its Post-Re-OrgIPO on 11/11 at $22
Debtor-In-Possession(DIP) Financing
Liquidity and Performance
21
The LSTA Has Tracked 56 Companies That Have Accessed the DIP Market Since 2006, Providing Them With the Liquidity Needed to Operate and Restructure While in Bankruptcy ~ Only 2 Companies Liquidated
22
Borrower Name Borrower Name Borrower NameAES Corp Delta Airlines NewPage Corp
Aleris International Inc Eagle-Picher Industries Inc Northwest AirAmerican Safety Razor Eastman Kodak Oneida
ATP Oil & Gas Corp Federal-Mogul Oriental TradingAtrium Companies General Growth Properties Philadelphia Media HoldingsBicent Power LLC Great Atlantic & Pacific Tea Co Quebecor Media
BlockBuster Greektown Casino Readers Digest AssociationBuffets Inc Hawker Beechcraft Remy International Inc
Calpine Corp Hayes Lemmerz International Residential Capital CorpCCS Medical Houghton Mifflin Sbarro Inc
Champion Home Builders Insight Pharmaceuticals Inc. Smurfit-Stone ContainerChemtura Corp Interstate Bakeries Corp Solutia Inc
Cinram Ion Media Tower AutomotiveCoach America Lake Las Vegas Resort Tribune CoCooper Standard Lear Corp Tronox Inc
Crescent Resources Lyondell Chemical True Temper SportsDana Corp Medical Staffing Network White Birch Paper LtdDeb Shops Nebraska Book Winstar Communications
Delphi Automotive Systems Newark Group Xerium (BTR Paper)
1Q06
4Q06
3Q07
2Q08
1Q09
4Q09
3Q10
2Q11
1Q12
$-
$2,000,000,000
$4,000,000,000
$6,000,000,000
$8,000,000,000
$10,000,000,000
$12,000,000,000
DIP Lending VolumeDIP Trading Volume
60
70
80
90
100
110
DIP Mkt: Avg. Bid
Aver
age
Bid
23
DIP Lending is Critical to the Preservationand Subsequent Appreciation of Enterprise Value
Source: LSTA Trade Data Study & LSTA/TR LPC MTM