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Tereza Cavazos
NAME Working GroupPuerto Vallarta, Mexico
November 2003
CICESE and UABC Participation in
NAME
Dept. of Physical Oceanography
2002
Components:
- Oceanographic- Atmospheric- Land-Surface
Title
Oceanographic Comp
MW Douglas - NSSLAS Mascarenhas - UABCMF Lavin – CICESE, Ens.R Castro - UABCE Beier – CICESE, La PazD Mitchell - DRIP Guest - NPSD Ivanova - DRI
The Role of Oceanic Processes on the Gulf of California SST Evolution
During the NAME
OceanographicComponent
SST_clim: Sat
JPL AVHRR Pathfinder Global 9 Km SST Climatology
HYPOTHESIS:
Northward advance of the monsoon seems to be related to the poleward progression of the 26oC isotherm on the eastern side of the GC
http://podaac.jpl.nasa.gov/climatology
Corr_SST: Model
June to September monthly climatology of currents (cms-1) and temperature (oC) in the 25-50 m layer of the POCM-4C model.
September
June July
AugustObservations:
TSW at the entrance of the GC Max in May-Jun
- Castro et al. 2000 - Castro 2001- Mascarenhas et al. 2003
Corr:Model
Modeling the circulation
and heat fluxes in the GC
(G. Marinone & A. Parés)
QuickScat
Surface Wind Climatology
Using QuikScat
(G. Marinone & A. Parés)
Scientific Question
What is the relative importance of oceanic heat advection and local-air sea fluxes in controlling the SST evolution
during the NAM in the Gulf of California ?
Objective
The Role of Oceanic Processes on the Gulf of California SST
Evolution During the NAME
OceanographicComponent
Cruises
- Observing stations along the blue lines - CTD every 10 km and down to 1000m - Atmospheric soundings 4/day
- Continuous meteorological, ADCP and SST data will be collected throughout the cruises
-The coastal meteorological stations and ADCP+MicroCAT moorings will be deployed at both sides of the GC
- Large dots: possible deployment sites for surface satellite-tracked drifters
Proposed NAMEOceanographic Cruises
Objective 1:
Determine characteristics of convective phenomena
- GOES satellite imagery
- Surface and upper-air observations
- Mesoscale model simulations (MM5)
Convective Patterns OverBaja California
(LM Farfán – CICESE, La Paz)
AtmosphericComponent
LF2
- Large-scale conditions and dynamic
mechanisms
- Changes in structure due to storm
interaction with the peninsula
- Determine patterns of wind/rainfall
distribution to identify high-risk areas Hurricane Marty: 12UTC 22 September 2003
Objective 2: Study landfall tracks in Baja California
D. Lettenmaier,
T. Cavazos & C. Zhu
Land-surface hydrologic predictability in the NAM region using a derived long-term data
set
1
To what extent do soil moisture and snow anomalies affect the evolution of the NAM?
Science Question
Extend retrospective LDAS data set to cover Tiers 1, 2 and 3 for ~ 50 yrs
Objectives
Using the derived LDAS, undertake predictability studies to investigate the role of land-surface feedbacks in the monsoon region
Current soil moisture data (LDAS; 1950-97): Derived from a variable infiltration capacity (VIC) model with 1/8º resolution (Maurer et al. 2002).
Study Domain
Tier 3
Winter Precipitation-monsoon rainfall feedback hypothesis
Higher (lower) winter precipitation
& spring snowpack
More (less) spring &
early summer soil moisture
Lower (higher) spring & early summer surface
temperature
Weak (strong) monsoon
Monsoon West
Monsoon South
Monsoon North
Monsoon East
Precipitation Regions
Winter Precip
JFM Precipitation in extreme monsoon
years
DRY WET
Wet Monsoon Dry Monsoon
Apr-May Soil Moisture in extreme monsoon
years
Snow
DRY WET
Moisture
WetDry
Soil moisture anomalies persist from spring until June
What is the feedback to the atmosphere ?
CorrelationMay-Jun SWE and
Surface temperature (Ts)
(Negative relationship)
CorrelationJune Ts vs July Precipitation
Wet modes
Heterogeneous SVD JAS Z500 vs JAS Precipitation
Dry
?
Heterogeneous SVD JFM SST vs JAS Precipitation
-0.4
0.4
-0.4
Negative PDO Dry monsoon
SVD: Z500 (AMJ) & PPT (JAS)
Mode 1: Z500 (AMJ)
JAS Pan: NWMex & AZ
DRY
WET
Conclusions
Higher (lower) winter precipitation
& spring snowpack
More (less) spring &
early summer soil moisture
Lower (higher) spring & early summer surface
temperature
Weak (strong) monsoon
Atmospheric connection:Winter SSTan and
Spring Z500 circulation
Especially During Extreme Years