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LISBOA | TEATRO THALIA
28 NOVEMBRO 2017
Cofinanciado por / Confinanced by
Tendências e Desafios no Horizonte 2O3O
Circular Economy: Concept & Trends
Alexandre LEMILLE@AlexLemille
1. Economic Strategies
2. Concept & Principles
3. The Economic Potential
4. Jobs, Activities and the Social Dimension
The Circular Economy: Concept & Trends
Content
Economic Strategies
Wrongly designed system
TAKE DISPOSEMAKE
WASTEENERGYLABOUR
$
WASTEENERGYLABOUR
$
WASTERes.
ENERGY$
Economic Strategies
Functions of throughput
Producer
Ownership
E X T E R N A L I T I E S ?
ResponsibilityTransfer &
Externalities
Economic Strategies
$Purchaser
$Authority
$Taxpayer
Traffic congestion | Air Pollution | Health Impact | Noise | Death/Injuries | Multiple Waste | etc…
$ $
Economic Strategies80% thrown while huge needs
Concept & Principles
A Circular EconomyPreserve stock quality & manage flows
GDP (flow)
Sou
rce:
Gia
rin
i& S
tah
el, 1
98
9
Level is ignored!
Outflow is ignored
!
How we measureour economy today
How it should bemeasured!
Welfare / Wealth / Knowledge(stock)
A Circular EconomyStock is everywhere
A Circular EconomyA resource-efficient economy
Reuse of vast amount of material
=
Foundation of Economic Growth
Restorative by design & intentionUsing renewable energyAway from chemicalsEradicating wasteRebuilding natural capital
Biosphere
Limited
USERS
Unlimited
Leased Accessed
Shared
No More Waste Away from Recycling Labour is Valued
$
$
$
$
$$Durables: Technical Nutrients
Design-to-fit: optimised systems
Returned
Biosphere
CONSUMERS
Away from hazardous chemicals Nutrients are Beneficial Rebuilding natural capital
$
$$
$
$
Consumables: Biological NutrientsSafely back into the biosphere
Sou
rce:
Th
e El
len
Mac
Art
hu
r Fo
un
dat
ion
/WR
AP/
WEF
By 2030:+3M EU Jobs
-520,000 Unempl.
By 2050:$4.5tn WWD
Depending on countries:
From -40% to -70% less CO2
Rebuilding of Capital:
In Priority: Natural
Decoupling is the Imperative
A Circular Economy
Sou
rce:
Th
e U
N E
nvi
ron
men
t, A
ccen
ture
C.E. Business Models+
New capabilities+
New technologies
Leading to new value chains: Less resource supply risks More customer value creation More attractive cost structures
A Circular EconomyNew Business Models
Sou
rce:
Sit
ra
A Circular Economy6 Business Strategies
A Circular EconomyRecycling is only the last resort
Reducing materials to mashed-up fragmentsDown-cyclingSecondary material stream for a linear economy
Does not value materialsDoes not drive material enhancementUses too much energyA good alternative solution todayNot a solution that copes with waste volumes
Sou
rce:
Sit
ra
A Circular EconomyAdvances across the Globe
The Economic Potential
Sou
rce:
Th
e El
len
Mac
Art
hu
r Fo
un
dat
ion
Huge material savings (€630bn/y (E.U.))
Economic Potential of Circularity
Market Trends
Economic Potential of Circularity
Towards Optimization of Value
Economic Potential of Circularity
Benefits according to “Growth Within”
Economic Potential of Circularity
Sou
rce:
Gro
wth
Wit
hin
, Sys
tem
IQ
EU-27, Indexed (2012 = 100)
Current
development
scenario
Circular scenario
Next Wave of Investment Themes
Economic Potential of Circularity
Sou
rce:
Th
e EM
F, S
yste
mIQ
Investments up to 20251
Cross-cutting opportunity
Opportunities Identified
Sou
rce:
McK
inse
y, G
aia
Co
nsu
ltin
g
The Case of Finland
The Case of Finland
Examples: Policy Measures
The Case of Finland
Global Unique Roadmap
Government Vision: World Leader in Circular Economy
Added Value Potential: 3bn Euros for the Economy
Additional Jobs: 75,000 (Club of Rome)
Takeaways & Expectations
Sou
rce:
Sit
ra
The Case of Finland
Jobs, Activities & the Social Dimension
Sou
rce:
Gre
en A
llian
ce, S
itra
Product Sold for Reuse & Remanufacture
Jobs, Activities & the Social Dimension
ReUse
Remanufacture
RecycleMaintenance
ReMarketing
Repair
Portugal Portugal or RoW
RePurpose
ReDistribute
ɛ
CO2
Disassembly
National job creation
Jobs, Activities & the Social Dimension
Valued Extracted Tax
Sou
rce:
Clu
b o
f R
om
e
Decoupling Strategies:
Renewable Case Energy-efficiency Material-efficiency
All Three Combined
Emission Reduction
-50% Around -30% -3% to -10% -66% to -69%
Additional Jobs+15,000 (SW+FL);
+50,000 (NL);+100,000 (FR+SP)
+15,000 (FL);+20,000 (SW);+100,000 (NL);
+200,000 (FR+SP)
+50,000 (SW+FL);+100,000 (NL);+200,000 (SP);+300,000 (FR);
+75,000 (FL);+100,000 (SW);+200,000 (NL);+400,000 (SP);+500,000 (FR);
Trade Balance Effects
+0.3% to +0.7%of GDP
0% to +0.4%of GDP
+1% to +2%of GDP
+1.5% to +3%of GDP
+
+
+
+
+
+
Winners: jobs & climate
Up to 70%Less CO2Emissions
Jobs, Activities & the Social Dimension
Cascades
Farming,Collection
Regeneration
Biogas
Maintain/Prolong
Reuse /redistribute
Refurbish/remanufacture
Recycle
Sou
rce:
A. L
emill
e, a
da
pte
d f
rom
th
e “B
utt
erfl
y D
iag
ram
” o
f th
e El
len
Mac
Art
hu
r Fo
un
dat
ion
BIOSPHERE TECHNOSPHERE
Extraction of Biochemical Feedstock
HUMANSPHERE
Biosphere
BiochemicalFeedstock
Share
Stock & Flows of Energies & Resources
Jobs, Activities & the Social Dimension
Hand-repaired, SwedenProlonging life via repairs
VAT drop: from 25% to 12%
Humans assisting, GermanyRobots could not keep up withMercedes S-Class requires too
many customisations
Manpower is enabled
Jobs, Activities & the Social Dimension
OCV: Optimising Circular Value
Jobs, Activities & the Social Dimension
Measuring our 10 Priority Oucomes:
OBRIGADO | THANK YOU
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