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CBRE HCMC Office Services 2010 Tenants Evening Part I: 2010…Are we in for a happy ending? Tuesday 26th January 2010 Presented by: Mr. Chris Currie Associate Director Office Services

Tenants Evening Part I 2010 - 26 January 2010

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Page 1: Tenants Evening Part I 2010 - 26 January 2010

CBRE HCMC Office Services2010 Tenants Evening Part I:

2010…Are we in for a happy ending?

Tuesday 26th January 2010

Presented by: Mr. Chris CurrieAssociate DirectorOffice Services

Page 2: Tenants Evening Part I 2010 - 26 January 2010

CB Richard Ellis | Page 2

Market Overview Q1 2010

2009 supply has filled up quicker than previously thought

Signs of companies revising 2010 headcounts upwards

Vietnamese tenants financially strong and less risk averse

CBRE Monthly enquiries are increasing

Rents appear to be bottoming out after 2009 falls

Pushback from some Landlords

Sense of realism - Asking vs. Achievable now around 10%

CBRE Absorption level of 154,000sm in 2009

Cluster of deals being done ~ US$30++ sm/month

Page 3: Tenants Evening Part I 2010 - 26 January 2010

CB Richard Ellis | Page 3

Recent headlines – Asia strong

Page 4: Tenants Evening Part I 2010 - 26 January 2010

CB Richard Ellis | Page 4

Indices – 12 monthsVN Index

497.9026 January

2010

S&P

Source: HSC Securities

Source: FT.com

58%

32%

Page 5: Tenants Evening Part I 2010 - 26 January 2010

CB Richard Ellis | Page 5

Commodities – YTD

Vietnam Gold

NYMEX Crude

Source: SJC

Source: FT.com

28%

40%

Page 6: Tenants Evening Part I 2010 - 26 January 2010

CB Richard Ellis | Page 6

The devaluing dong – The hidden costVietnam Will Probably Devalue Dong 4% by Year-end

Tamara Henderson, Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd – September , 2009

For indicative purposes only – forecast for 2009 and 2010

12.45%VND 500,000.00$28.11$25.00VND 20,000.00December 1 20103.84%VND 461,725.00$25.96$25.00VND 18,469.00January 26 2010

VND 444,625.00$25.00$25.00VND 17,785.00June 1 2009

% increaseVNDEffectiveUSDExchangeDate

Currency Caps between 10 – 15%

Advance Rent Payments at fixed exchange rates

VND denominated lease agreements

Page 7: Tenants Evening Part I 2010 - 26 January 2010

CB Richard Ellis | Page 7

Rents Falling

NB. Markets do not necessarily move along the curve in the same direction or at the same speed.

The rental cycle is intended to display the trend in net effective rents

Asian Office Market Rent Cycle, Q4 2009

Rents Bottoming

Out

Rental Growth Accelerating

Rental Growth Slowing

Shanghai

Singapore

Tokyo

Hong Kong

T

H

S

S

B

Beijing

G Guangzhou

T Taipei

S Seoul

N New Delhi

H

MumbaiBBangalore

J Jakarta

K Kuala

Lumpur

M Manila

B

Bangkok

MHCM City

H Hanoi

As of Q4 2009

Page 8: Tenants Evening Part I 2010 - 26 January 2010

CB Richard Ellis | Page 8

Centec

Times Square – 2H 2011

M&C Tower – 2H 2011

Bitexco Financial Tower – 2H 2010

Kumho Asiana Plaza

Saigon Tower

Sun WahSaigon Centre

Diamond Plaza

Saigon Trade Center

Me Linh Point

Metropolitan Vincom Tower – 2H 2010

Major Buildings

Le Meridian – 1H 2011

CT Group Building – 1H 2011

HTMC – 2H 2011

A&B Tower

SJC Tower - 2012Existing – Future

Page 9: Tenants Evening Part I 2010 - 26 January 2010

CB Richard Ellis | Page 9

Vincom Center Office Tower

Fitting Out Q1 2010

Commitment 20%

Curtain Wall going up

Page 10: Tenants Evening Part I 2010 - 26 January 2010

CB Richard Ellis | Page 10

Bao Viet

Fitting Out – Q1 2010

Commitment - 40% (Landlord Occupies)

Finalizing exterior façade, windows going-in

Page 11: Tenants Evening Part I 2010 - 26 January 2010

CB Richard Ellis | Page 11

Bitexco Financial Tower

Fitting Out – April 2010

Commitment - 18%

Curtain wall in-line with construction, up to the 45th

level (out of 68 Level)

Page 12: Tenants Evening Part I 2010 - 26 January 2010

CB Richard Ellis | Page 12

A&B Tower

Fitting Out Q2 2010

Commitment 47%

Curtain Wall nearly completed

Page 13: Tenants Evening Part I 2010 - 26 January 2010

CB Richard Ellis | Page 13

HCMC Power Company

Fitting Out Q2 2010

Commitment - 30% (Landlord Occupies)

Curtain Wall going up

Page 14: Tenants Evening Part I 2010 - 26 January 2010

CB Richard Ellis | Page 14

Occupancy Rates & Vacant Space in Major Buildings

11,50060%CentrePoint37,100smApproximate TOTAL

0100%Sailing Tower2,30080%Royal Centre

5,60085%Saigon Trade Center40098%Me Linh Point Tower

4,10085%CENTEC

1,700 - GFA89%Saigon Tower1,000 - GFA98%Sun Wah Tower

9,00065% Kumho1,000 - GFA98%Metropolitan

500 - SGFA95%Saigon Centre0100%Diamond Plaza

Available Net Vacant Space*Occupancy

Estimate only according to information obtained from landlords and agents

* Unless otherwise stated

Page 15: Tenants Evening Part I 2010 - 26 January 2010

CB Richard Ellis | Page 15

2010 Major New Supply

37,100smPlus current vacant space134,028smApproximate new space

30,92218%Bitexco Financial Tower

170,000sm**Approximate TOTAL space available end 2010

21,8060%The Flemington – D117,00040%(LL Occupies)Bao Viet Building

13,70030%(LL Occupies)HCMC Power Company

51,60020%Vincom Center9,00047%A&B Tower

Available Net Vacant Space*Commitment

Estimate only according to information obtained from landlords and agents

•Unless otherwise stated

**Approx NET square metres

Page 16: Tenants Evening Part I 2010 - 26 January 2010

CB Richard Ellis | Page 16

Demand – Which areas of the market

Financials (Banks) / Insurance /

Securities / Education / Oil & Gas / Software /

Call Centre's

Page 17: Tenants Evening Part I 2010 - 26 January 2010

CB Richard Ellis | Page 17

HCMC Net Absorption of Office Space

Net Take Up ofOffice Space (all grades)

144,000

146,000

148,000

150,000

152,000

154,000

156,000

2007 2008 2009

GFA

(sq

m)

Source: CBRE (Vietnam)

HCMC Net Absorption

Page 18: Tenants Evening Part I 2010 - 26 January 2010

CB Richard Ellis | Page 18

Regional Net Absorption

Page 19: Tenants Evening Part I 2010 - 26 January 2010

CB Richard Ellis | Page 19

$15$20$25$30$35$40$45$50$55$60$65$70$75

Q1 2009 Apr-09 Jun-09 Jan-10

Cu

rren

t A

skin

g R

ents

(ex

cl.

Serv

ice

Ch

arg

e a

nd

VA

T)

Source: CBRE (Vietnam)

Current Asking Rents

Me Linh PointCENTEC

Saigon Trade CenterSailing Tower

Saigon CentreSaigon Tower

Diamond Plaza

KumhoMetropolitan

Sun Wah

*Buildings are not listed in any particular order within rental ranges.

KumhoMetropolitan

Sun Wah TowerSaigon CentreSaigon Tower

Diamond PlazaMe Linh Point

CENTECSaigon Trade Center

Sailing Tower

KumhoMetropolitan

Sun Wah TowerSaigon CentreSaigon Tower

Diamond PlazaMe Linh Point

CENTECSaigon Trade Center

Sailing TowerBao VietCENTEC

A&B TowerSaigon Trade Center

CentrePoint

KumhoMetropolitanVincom CenterSun Wah TowerSaigon CentreSaigon Tower

Diamond PlazaMe Linh Point

Page 20: Tenants Evening Part I 2010 - 26 January 2010

CB Richard Ellis | Page 20

GRADE B BUILDING CLOSING RENTS (NET AREA)

3246545028282420.5High Zone

3144524926232017Mid zone

2742504822181614Low Zone

Jan2010

Jan2009

May2008

Dec2007

Dec2006

Jul2005

Apr2005

Jun2002

Notes: Rents excl SC & VAT

Doubled and halved

Page 21: Tenants Evening Part I 2010 - 26 January 2010

CB Richard Ellis | Page 21

Strengths

•Increased Supply = Increased Options•Better Quality•Rents are down•Flexibility Landlords•Landlords are moving quickly

Weaknesses

•Parking•Quality of Amenities•Infrastructure – Access•Efficiencies

Opportunities

ConsolidationLonger term leases / strata titleUpgrade in quality / gradeNewer, more efficient space

Threats

Decreased Landlord leverageRents increasingDemand outstripping supplyDelays in completion

Tenants View of the Office Market

Page 22: Tenants Evening Part I 2010 - 26 January 2010

CB Richard Ellis | Page 22

Summary

If demand exceeds 2009 levels, rents may pick up in 2011

Vietnamese tenants will continue to dominate the market

More long term leases / strata titled office space

Occupancy levels critical to leverage

Realism takes hold

Happy Ending…you may not get it your own way!

Page 23: Tenants Evening Part I 2010 - 26 January 2010

CB Richard Ellis | Page 23

Covers:National and CityEconomic OverviewOfficeRetailHotelResidential for SaleInvestment Serviced ApartmentsConstruction Costs

Quarterly Reports for Ho Chi Minh City and Hanoi

[email protected]

Available for each city, in English or Vietnamese

Page 24: Tenants Evening Part I 2010 - 26 January 2010

CB Richard Ellis | Page 24

Over 300 markets in more than 50 countries

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www.cbrevietnam.com

We obtained the information above from sources we believe to be reliable. However, we have not verified its accuracy and make noguarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is submitted subject to the possibility of errors, omissions, change of price, rental or other

conditions, prior sale, lease or financing or withdrawal without notice. We include projections, opinions, assumptions or estimates for example only, and they may not represent current or future performance of the property. You and your tax and legal advisors should conduct

your own investigation of the property and transaction.

Thank You