Telecom Man Made Fibre - CARE Research · 2014 The Indian Telecom Sector ... ¢Market Size of MVAS ... ¢VAS Market Growth and Forecast – 2006 – 2012, 2015E Overview of the Global

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March

2014

The IndianTelecomSector Wireless

Over the last five years, Indian subscriber base has swelled from 166 million in FY 2007

to 919 million in FY 2012 growing at a CAGR of around 41%. Though the total wireless

subscriber base declined in FY13, active subscribers kept on rising albeit at a slower pace.

CARE Research believes that wireless subscribers will witness some correction as

operators keep removing inactive subscribers.

Though rural population accounts for 70% of Indian population, rural teledensity is only

39% as compared 142% in urban areas as of January 2013. In the last 5 years, subscriber

base in rural areas has grown more rapidly than the urban areas. Most of the urban areas

are saturated in terms of teledensity whereas there is still untapped potential in rural

areas. In the pursuit of growth, service providers rolled out their services in newer rural

hinterlands. Also, the lower tariffs and falling handset prices increased affordability of

telecom services.

Total subscriber base to witness correction,active subscribers to goup gradually

Rural hinterlandsto offer hope

3G in India is still miles away from the mainstream 2G telephony as the adoption of the

former is mere 2% of total wireless subscribers. On the brighter side, 3G traffic has

grown more than 200% in the last year, predominantly, after the massive tariff cuts of

70-80% in May 2012. There is still a long way for 3G in India due to various reasons like

poor penetration of 3G enabled handsets especially smartphones, poor user experience

due to incomplete roll-out. Furthermore, 4G roll-out has been a non-starter with just

one player starting services in a few cities. Though 4G offers great promise in terms of

taking the world to next level of data usage, lack of voice offering is a major lacuna in

the Indian market. Nevertheless, 4G remains the as the hope to bring the data

revolution in the country.

3G – Momentum isbuilding but contributionto remain marginal,while 4G still a dream

ARPUs for both GSM and CDMA have declined gradually over the years on account of

two long term trends – increased competition and addition of low ARPU subscribers to

the base. ARPUs, which currently hover around Rs. 100, are expected to see a moderate

uptick due to correction in subscriber base and ongoing tariff hikes.

Average Revenue perUser (ARPU) –Moderate UptrendExpected

In the last 6 years, the VAS industry has grown at a CAGR of more than 45% and is

expected to grow at similar rates over next 2-3 years. One of the biggest inhibitors for

VAS industry in India is the inverted revenue-sharing arrangement between VAS value

chain and the telecom operators.

VAS – The Nextgrowth engine


The most prominent setback for India telecom sector had been the handling of

regulatory issues arisen out of alleged mismanagement and corruption in 2G allocation

in 2008 and subsequent cancellation of licenses by the Supreme Court. Spectrum

refarming, one time fees over additional spectrum held by the operators and auction of

new spectrum are one of biggest regulatory overhangs for the sector.

Regulatory Overhang –Intricacies in policydecisions

Table of

Contents

Section- I CARE Research's Outlook

Section- II Industry Section

Outlook on Indian Telecom Wireless Industry

¢

¡ GSM-CDMA Subscriber Forecast

¡Urban-Rural Subscriber Forecast

¢Average Revenue per User (ARPU) – Moderate Uptrend expected

¢Revenue Forecast – Moderate Growth expected

¢Outlook on Profitability

¢3G story to gather momentum over next 2-3 years

¢Value Added Services (VAS) – Driver for Telecom Growth

¢Regulatory Overhang

Overview of the Global Telecom Wireless Industry

¢The Global Telecom Industry

¢Mobile Penetration in Various Geographies

¢Continuous Uptrend in Global Mobile Subscribers and Teledensities

¢Mobile Broadband Spread

History of Indian Telecom

¢Phase I - Pre-liberalization (1947-1989)

¢Phase II – Telecom Sector in the Post-liberalization Era (1990-1999)

¢Phase III – Current Scenario (2000-2012)

Comparitive Analysis

¢Urban vs. Rural – 'The Digital Divide'

¡Teledensity

¡Subscriber Growth

¡Urban vs. Rural Subscribers - Player wise

¢GSM vs. CDMA

¡Subscriber Growth

¡Composition of Revenue

¡MOU and RPM

¢Prepaid vs. Post-paid

¡Subscriber Composition

¡GSM and CDMA Subscribers – Circle wise

¡ARPU

¡Rate per Minute (RPM)

¢Active Subscribers

¢Market Leadership Positions – Subscriber-wise

Spectrum Allocation

¢Spectrum Availability

¢Spectrum Allocation in India

¢Spectrum in 700 MHz Band

¢Optimum use of Spectrum

Subscriber Forecast


¢Spectrum Auctions

¢Auction I: November 2012

¡Auction II: March 2012

¡Spectrum Allocated to Various Players

¢Spectrum Efficiency

¢Spectrum Refarming

¢Charge for Excess Spectrum

¢Spectrum Sharing and M&A

¢Spectrum Trading

Cost Analysis

¢Cost Structure

¢Regulatory Charges

¡License Fees

¡Spectrum Charges

¡Access Charges

¢Non Regulatory Charges

¡Network Operating Cost

¡Employee Cost

¢Marketing and Brand Promotion Expenses

3G

¢ Overview

¢3G Adoption Worldwide

¢3G Auction in India

¢3G Adoption in India

¢3G in India

¢Financing of 3G License Fees

¢Current state of 3G in India

¢3G Roaming Pacts

4G – Next Step towards Broadband Growth

¢Global Adoption of 4G

¢4G Auctions in India

¢Will 4G go 3G's way?

¢Technology Choice

¢Ecosystem Challenge for 4G

¢4G: Too Early to be a Disruptive Technology in Voice Offering

¢Addressable Market for 4G – Trinity of Internet, Video and Television

¢Stable Growth Prospects, Lower Operating Costs support Business Model

Investment and Credit Profile

¢Credit Profile

¢Investments

¢Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

¢Major M&A Deals in Indian Telecom Sector related to FDI

¢Domestic Investment

¢CapEx Guidance by Major Telecom Players

Table of

Contents


Table of

Contents

¢VAS 1

¢Overview

¢Market Size of MVAS

¢Demand Drivers for MVAS

¢Business Model of VAS

¢Platforms for Delivering VAS

¢MVAS Value Chain

¢Segmentation

¡Entertainment VAS

¡Information VAS

¡Transactional VAS

¡Enterprise VAS

VAS 2

¢Utility MVAS

¢Key categories of Utility MVAS

¢Regulations in MVAS

¢Revenue Sharing across the VAS value chain

¢Key challenges for VAS

NLD & ILD

¢National Long Distance (NLD) Service

¡Impact of National Roaming

¡NLD License Allocation

¡Impact of National Roaming in the New Telecom Policy 2012

¡NLD License Allocation

¡Regulatory Charges for NLDOs

¡NLD Market Size

¡Competitive Landscape in NLD Segment

¡NLD Outgoing MOU Trend

¡Decline in NLD Tariffs

¢International Long Distance (ILD) Service

¡ILD License Allocation

¡Regulatory Charges for ILDOs

¡ILD Market Size

¡Competitive Landscape in ILD Segment

¡ILD Outgoing MOU Trend

¡Decline in ILD Tariffs

Licensing Framework

¢Cellular Mobile Telephone Service (CMTS)

¢Scope of CMTS operators

¢Migration to Unified Access Service (UAS) licensing regime

¢Service Areas & License fees – UAS

¢Scope of UAS operators

¢Cancellation of Licenses by the Supreme Court in Feb. 2012

¢Global Perspective


Table of

Contents¢License Renewal

¢International Practices in License Renewal

¢Future Licensing Regimes: New Unified Licensing Regime 2012

¢Draft Guidelines for Unified License

¢The Entry Fee Structure

¢New Unified Licensing Regime

¢Implications of New Unified Licensing Regime

Mergers & Acquisitions

¢Existing M&A Guidelines

¢TRAI Recommendations

¢New M&A Guidelines as issued in February 2012

¢Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI)

¢Global Scenario

¢Need for Consolidation

Mobile Handsets as a Driver for Wireless Growth

¢Overview

¢Factors Driving Mobile Handset Growth

Mobile Number Portability

¢Overview

¢MNP around the World

¢MNP in India

¢MNP Requests – Circle wise

¢MNP Requests vs. Net Wireless Additions

¢MNP Requests – Player wise

¢MNP Impact

Universal Service Obligation Fund (USOF)

¢Background

¢Widening Urban – Rural Teledensity Gap

¢Assistance Offered to Service Providers

¢Competitive Selection of Service Providers

¢Accomplishment So Far

¢USOF Fund Status

¢USOF across Various Countries

Telecom Regulatory Bodies

¢Department of Telecommunications (DoT)

¢Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI)

¢Telecom Disputes Settlement and Appellate Tribunal (TDSAT)

¢Telecom Commission

¢Expected Changes in the Regulatory Structure

¢Technology

¢FDMA vs. TDMA vs. CDMA

¢Generations of Wireless Telecommunication Technology

¢Evolution of GSM technology

¢Evolution of CDMA technology


Table of

Contents¢GSM network Structure

¢CDMA network Structure

¢Bharti Airtel Ltd

¢Background

¢Segment Operations

¢Capex Plan

¢Segment-wise Revenue break up

¢Consolidated Annual Financials

¢Consolidated Quarterly Financials

¢Key Operating Parameters

¢Share Price Movement

¢Shareholding Pattern

¢Credit Rating

¢Idea Cellular Ltd

¢Background


¢Capex Plan






¢Credit Rating

¢Reliance Communications Ltd

¢Background


¢Capex Plan



¢Consolidated Quarterly Financials




¢Credit Rating

¢Tata Teleservices Maharashtra Ltd

¢Background


¢Standalone Annual Financials

¢Standalone Quarterly Financials



¢Credit Rating

SECTION- III Company Section


Table of

Contents

¢Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd

¢Background



¢Segment-wise Performance

¢Standalone Quarterly Financials




Unlisted Telecom Companies

¢Vodafone India Ltd

¢Aircel Ltd

¢Tata Teleservices Ltd

¢Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd

¢Annexure I – Nomenclature of telecom circles

¢Annexure II – Circle wise subscribers (000's)

Outlook on Indian Telecom Wireless Industry

¢Total Wireless Subscriber Forecast – FY 2009 – FY 2015E

¢Active Subscriber Forecast – FY 2011 – FY 2015E

¢Total vs. Active Subscriber Growth

¢Subscriber Forecast – GSM & CDMA – FY 2009 – FY 2015E

¢Subscriber Forecast – Urban & Rural – FY 2009 – FY 2015E

¢ARPU Forecast – FY 2009 – FU 2015E

¢Gross Revenue Forecast – FY 2009 – FY 2015E

¢EBITDA Margin – FY 2010 – FY 2014E

¢3G Subscriber Forecast – FY 2012 – FY 2016E

¢VAS Market Growth and Forecast – 2006 – 2012, 2015E

Overview of the Global Telecom Wireless Industry

¢World Population and Cellular Subscriptions – 2001 – 2012E

¢Global Teledensity (%) – 2001 – 2012E

¢Developed vs. Developing Teledensity (%) – 2001 – 2012E

¢Mobile Penetration (%) – 2009 – 2011

¢Subscriber Share – 2000, 2005, 2013E

¢Global Mobile Subscribers and Teledensity – 2001 – 2012E

¢Broadband Penetration – 2007 – 2012E

¢Mobile Broadband Penetration – 2007 – 2012E

SECTION- III Annexures

List of Graphs & TablesSECTION- I CARE Research's Outlook

SECTION- II Industry Section


Table of

Contents


History of Indian Telecom

¢The History of Telecommunication in India

Comparitive Analysis

¢Total Subscriber vs. Active Subscriber Growth – June 2012 – January 2013

¢Total Subscriber vs. Active Subscriber Growth – January 2013

¢Teledensity – Urban vs. Rural – March 2007 – January 2013

¢Subscriber Growth – Urban vs. Rural – March 2007 – January 2013

¢% Share of Urban Subscribers – March 2009 – September 2012

¢% Share of Rural Subscribers – March 2009 – September 2012

¢Urban vs. Rural – Subscriber Composition for Various Players (as of Sept 2012)

¢Subscriber Growth – Urban, Rural and Overall (over March 2009 – 12)

¢Share of Subscribers – Sept 2006 and Sept 2012

¢Subscriber Base – GSM vs. CDMA – March 2004 – September 2012

¢ARPU – GSM vs. CDMA – June 2006 – September 2012

¢Revenue from Call Charges, Rental Revenue, Revenue from Roaming, Revenue from SMS, Other Revenue – December 2006 – September 2012

¢Revenue Composition – GSM vs. CDMA (as of Sept 2012)

¢MOU per Subscriber per month and RPM – September 2008 to September 2012

¢Prepaid vs. Postpaid Composition, Prepaid as % of total – GSM vs. CDMA – September 2007 – September 2012

¢% Prepaid Subscribers across circles for GSM and CDMA (as of Sept 2012)

¢Prepaid vs. Postpaid ARPU – GSM, Prepaid vs. Postpaid ARPU – CDMA, June 2006 – September 2012

¢ARPU – GSM (Circle-wise), ARPU – CDMA (Circle-wise) (as of Sept 2012)

¢Rate per Minute – March 1999 – September 2011

¢RPM – GSM, RPM – CDMA – September 2006 – September 2012

¢Active Subscribers Circle-wise (as of January 2013)

¢Active Subscribers Player-wise (as of January 2013)

¢Circle-wise Subscriber Share Ranking (as of January 2013)

Spectrum Allocation

¢Spectrum Holdings in Various Countries

¢Spectrum for Mobile Services as per National Frequency Allocation Plan

¢Spectrum available for Telecom Service Providers in different Frequency Bands

¢Results of Spectrum auction (Nov 2012)

¢Results of Spectrum auctions held on 11th March 2013

¢Spectrum Allocated to Various Players (900+1800MHz)

¢Spectrum Allocated to Various Players (800MHz)

Cost Analysis

¢Telecom Cost Structure

¢License Fees (as % of AGR) Structure over the years

¢Spectrum Charges Structure

¢License Fees and Spectrum Charges - June 2008 - Sep. 2011

¢Regulatory Charges in Asian Countries

¢Existing Interconnection Charges

¢Cost Cutting Strategies adopted by Indian Telecom Players

¢Network Operating Costs for Bharti Airtel, Idea and Rcom - FY 2007-FY 2011

Table of

Contents


¢Employee Costs for Bharti Airtel, Idea and Rcom - FY 2007-FY 2011

¢Marketing and Brand Promotion Expenses of Bharti Airtel, Idea and Rcom - FY 2007-FY 2011

3G – Winner's Curse

¢Country-wise 3G Statistics

¢2G Population Global Coverage, 3G Population Global Coverage

¢3G Auction Results (in Rs. Billion)

¢3G Services Offered in India

¢3G vs. 2G

¢3G BTS Deployment, Districts Covered – November 2012

¢3G Service Offerings in Circles Pre and Post Roaming Pact

4G – Next Step towards Broadband Growth

¢LTE Subscribers (June 2012)

¢Growth of LTE Devices – February 2011 – January 2013

¢3G Auction Bids (Rs. Million)

¢4G Game Plan of Indian Players

¢Global LTE Device Availability (January 2013)

¢Literacy, Mobile and Internet Penetration in India

Investment and Credit Profile

¢Credit Profile – Debt to Equity Ratio, Interest Coverage Ratio, ROCE, Capex (Rs. Billion) – FY 2009 – FY 2012

¢FDI Limits

¢FDI in the Indian Telecom Sector (US$ Mn) – FY 2004 – FY 2013E

¢Major M&A Deals in the Indian Telecom Sector

¢Capital Employed – FY 2010 – FY 2012

¢Investment (Fixed Assets) – FY 2010 – FY 2012

¢Capex Guidance – FY 2013

¢VAS 1

¢Growth in MVAS Market – 2006 – 2012, 2015E

¢Growth in Wireless Subscribers – March 2004 – January 2013

¢Growth in Revenue of Telecom Service Providers and Wireless Subscribers – March 2005 – March 2012

¢Reach of TV, PCs and Mobile Phones in India – 2005 – 2010

¢Global Comparison of Non-voice Revenue as % of Total Telecom Revenue

¢Decline in ARPU over the years – March 2006 – March 2012

¢MVAS Value Chain and its Stakeholders\

¢MVAS Stakeholders and their Share of Revenue

VAS 2

¢Country-wise Social Development Parameters per 100 Population – Banks, Doctors, Schools

¢Categories of Utility MVAS

¢Financial Exclusion Statistics

¢Number of Doctors in India

¢Statistics on Education in India

¢Use of VAS in Government Initiatives

¢Revenue Sharing Arrangement across MVAS Value Chain

Table of

Contents


NLD & ILD

¢List of NLD Service License Holders

¢Revenue from NLD service (June 2008 – September 2012)

¢NLD Service Provider-wise Market Share – FY 2012

¢Circle wise % Share of NLD in outgoing MOU per subscriber per month - GSM (June 2006 – September 2012)

¢Circle wise % Share of NLD in outgoing MOU per subscriber per month - CDMA (June 2006 – September 2012)

¢% Share of NLD in outgoing MOU per subscriber per month - GSM (June 2007 – September 2012)

¢% Share of NLD in outgoing MOU per subscriber per month - CDMA (June 2007 – September 2012)

¢Percentage decline in NLD tariffs during the period prior 1/5/99 to 31/3/11

¢List of ILD Service License Holders

¢Revenue from ILD service (June 2008 – September 2012)

¢ILD Service Provider-wise Market Share FY2011

¢Percentage decline in ILD tariffs in India during the period prior 1/5/99 to 31/3/11

Licensing Framework

¢Entry of Telecom Operators under Various Policy regimes

¢Entry Fee of UAS License

¢License Allocation Status

¢Cancelled Licenses Post Supreme Court Verdict

Mergers & Acquisitions

¢M&A Guidelines Issued by DoT on 22nd April 2008

¢TRAI Recommendations on M&A (May 2010)

¢New M&A Guidelines as issued in February 2012

¢HHI in Different Service Areas in India - 2001, 2004, 2007, 2009

¢Country wise Number of Operators

¢Major M&A deals in Indian Telecom Sector

Mobile Handsets as a Driver for Wireless Growth

¢Comparison of Handset Volume Growth and Wireless Subscriber Growth – FY 2005 – FY 2012

¢Smartphone Penetration in Various Countries (2012)

¢Drivers for Handset Growth

¢Domestic Market Share by Revenue – FY 2011 – FY 2012

¢Trends in Average Selling Price of Handsets in India (Rs.) – FY 2005 – FY 2012

¢Mobile Handset Demand in India – 2009 – 2014E

Mobile Number Portability

¢Worldwide MNP Adoption

¢Porting Rates in Various Countries

¢Porting Transaction Charges

¢Zone Wise Total MNP Requests (March 2011-November 2011)\

¢MNP Requests – Circle wise (Until November 2011)

¢New MNP Requests against Net Wireless Additions (March 2011-November2011)

¢Operator Wise MNP Gainers and Losers (Net)

Universal Service Obligation Fund (USOF)

¢Universal Service Levies across Various Countries

¢Widening Gap between Urban & Rural Teledensity (FY98-FY11)\

¢Participants in USOF Scheme

Table of

Contents


¢USOF Funds Status (FY03-FY12)

¢Activity-wise total disbursement 2003 – February 2013

¢Service provider wise total Disbursement 2003 - October 2011

¢Universal Service Funds across Various Countries

Telecom Regulatory Bodies

¢Structure of Telecom Regulatory Bodies

¢DoT

¢TRAI

¢TDSAT

¢Telecom Commission of India

¢Technology

¢Basic differences among channel access methods - FDMA, TDMA and CDMA

¢Generations of Wireless Telecommunication Technology

¢Difference in Modulation & Coding schemes of GPRS and EDGE technologies

¢Evolution of GSM technology

¢Evolution of CDMA technology

¢GSM Network Structure

¢CDMA network structure

Bharti Airtel Ltd

¢Segment-wise Revenue break up (FY 2012)

¢Consolidated Annual Financials (FY 2010 – FY 2012)

¢Consolidated Quarterly Financials – Q1 FY 2013 – Q3 FY 2013

¢Key Operating Parameters – Q3 FY 2012 – Q3 FY 2013

¢Share Price Movement – (February 2012 – February 2013)

¢Shareholding Pattern as on December 2012

¢Credit Ratings

Idea Cellular Ltd




¢Key Operating Parameters – Q3 FY 2012 – Q3 FY 2013

¢Share Price Movement – (February 2012 – February 2013)


¢Credit Ratings

Reliance Communications Ltd




¢Key Operating Parameters (Q3 FY 2012 – Q3 FY 2013)

¢Share Price Movement (February 2012 – February 2013)


¢Credit Rating

SECTION- III Company Section

Table of

Contents


Tata Teleservices Maharashtra Ltd

¢Standalone Annual Financials (FY 2010 – FY 2012)

¢Standalone Quarterly Financials (Q1 FY 2013 – Q3 FY 2013)



¢Credit Rating

¢Mahanagar Telephone Nigam Ltd


¢Segment-wise Performance – Revenue (FY 2010 – FY 2012)

¢Segment-wise Performance – EBIT Margin (FY 2010 – FY 2012)

¢Standalone Quarterly Financials – Q1 FY 2013 – Q3 FY 2013

¢Key Operating Parameters (Q2 FY 2012 – Q2 FY 2013)



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Telecom Man Made Fibre - CARE Research · 2014 The Indian Telecom Sector ... ¢Market Size of MVAS ... ¢VAS Market Growth and Forecast – 2006 – 2012, 2015E Overview of the Global