Teflas’ Grain Asia and International Pulses Forum. Mumbai. December 18, 2010 Overview of Pulses G. Chandrashekhar The Hindu Business Line

Teflas’Grain Asia and International

Pulses Forum. Mumbai. December 18, 2010

Overview of Pulses G. Chandrashekhar

The Hindu Business Line

Pulses: Big numbers, small growth

• India: world’s largest producer, importer and consumer of pulses

• Stagnant acreage; low yield; sluggish output growth; low per capita availability; skew in consumption;

• Emerging nutrition security challenge

What’s certain about Indian pulses?

• D E M A N D • Rising incomes + low existing

per capita usage + demographic pressure drive demand up

• Incremental consumption growth potential 700,000 tons

Rising rural incomes, price conscious consumers

• Government policies advance rural income growth: higher MSP, NREGA, Welfare schemes, Infra spending, & subsidised PDS

• Pulses demand is price elastic; high prices result in lower demand mainly among poor who actually need vegetable protein;

Pulses Market Fundamentals

• 2007-08 2008-092009-10 Output 14.814.6 14.7 Imports

2.8 2.5 3.5 Usage 17.6 17.1

18.2 Proj Demand 16.817.5 18.3 Population*1138 1154 1170 Per capita+ 15.4 14.8 15.2 * in millions; + in kgs;

Indian government defensive

• Price situation worsened last 3 years; Government reaction? Export ban, suspension of futures trading, duty-free imports, increased role for state agencies (compensation for trading losses), subsidy for PDS supplies;

Will situation improve?• No. Not anytime soon.

Structural issues remain unaddressed; MSP alone cannot trigger sustained output growth; India needs non-price and non-trade initiatives to boost production & productivity

• No +ve signal yet

New challenges emerging

• Land constraints; competition for acreage; water shortage (only 4 ml ha or 15% area irrigated); soil health; Global Warming / Climate Change

• Lack of policy support for pulses (unlike fine cereals);

• So, what does one infer?

Inference • Indian demand conditions

robust • Supply uncertainties persist• Demand-Supply gap set to

widen in future, barring exceptional years like 2010-11

• Output projected at >16 ml.t. and demand > 19 ml.t.

XI FYP Projection

• Pulses Demand, Supply and Shortfall

• 2010-11 2011-12 Output ml.t 15.5 16.1 Demand ml.t. 19.1 19.9 Shortfall ml.t 3.6 3.8

Quo vadis?• Need to discipline /regulate PSUs

in pulses business • Pulses procurement and supplies

thro PDS critical• Ongoing research : promising

new hybrid in pigeon pea; trials on insect resistant pigeon pea, chick pea (Bt);

Thank You•G. Chandrashekhar The Hindu Business Line Kasturi Building, J. Tata Road Churchgate, Mumbai 400020 Phn: 91-22-22885593 – 22021099 email: [email protected]

Pulses vs. other food products

• Sudhakar TomarPulses industry size : 62 Million Tons

• Value : US$ 100 Billion• Food-Feed-Protein-Agronomical benefits

• Environment

Product Production(Million MT)

Global-Trade(Million MT)

% body weight) Protein(As

Pulses 62 11 20 to 25%

Palm Oils 38 30 N/A

Corn 771 87 3 to 4%

Rice 660 32 7 to 8.3 %

Wheat 676 116 10 to 12.5%

Barley 153 19 10%

Poultry Meat 93 9.6 23%

friendly-Ethical-Green

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United Colours of Pulses

Pulses & Legumes - Food Shortage & Climate Change ? - Sudhakar Tomar 14

What kind of pulses are grown in the world ?

Dry Beans34%

Dry Peas19%

Others8%

Lupins2%

Pigeon Peas5%

Lentils5%

Cow Peas7%

Dry Broad Beans

7%Chickpeas

13%

15

Major Producers


Major Importers


Overall a diversified supply , demand and production base

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..and where we live


How to feed the next generations Improve Yields by using High Yield Seeds Manage Resources carefully

Save crops from Pests & Diseases

Make Agri-technology available tothe small and marginal farmers inthe third world

Increase Public & Private investment in Agriculture and R&D

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The good news is that

Yes there are enough resources , awareness ,

resolve , extra land & water and seed technology to grow

enough food21

But the bad news is that

The this food will not be Cheap or affordable

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more bad news is that

although there will be enough food but not enough money with poor people to buy .. so

we have figure out smart solutions

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Smart solutions1. Life style adjustments –for rich & poor2. Eat /Promote smart Protein = Pulses &

Legumes 3. Consume less (Food-Water-Energy)4. Less wastage of resources5. Raise awareness & Educate others6. Push the policymakers to do the right thing

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A target of just 10% replacement of animal protein (Meat & Dairy) with vegetable protein (Pulses) will free up about 500 million MTs of food crop in the market ensuring adequate ECONOMICAL food supply to the world

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PULSES

Documents

Teflas’ Grain Asia and International Pulses Forum. Mumbai. December 18, 2010 Overview of Pulses G. Chandrashekhar The Hindu Business Line