Technology Task Group Update

9 December 2010

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Recovery Briefings

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Coming up• December 15, 2010 - National Academies study, Review of the Research Program of the FreedomCAR and Fuel Partnership:

Third Report, by Vernon Roan • January 5, 2011 – DOE Fuel Cell Technologies Program Briefing.

Completed (materials available)• Assessment of Technologies for Improving Light-Duty Vehicle Fuel Economy• AEF: Liquid Transportation Fuels from Coal and Biomass• EERE Vehicle Technologies Program- Energy Storage, Power Electronics & Electric Machines, and the Hybrid and Vehicle

Systems by Stephen Boyd, Dave Howell, and Lee Slezak• America's Energy Future: Energy Efficiency Technologies: Opportunities, Risks, and Tradeoffs • EERE: Advanced Combustion Engines Technologies Program by Gupreet Singh and Fuels & Lubricants Technologies

Programs by Kevin Stork• National Academies Briefing on MD/HD Vehicles by Andrew Brown• EERE Biomass Program Briefing by Valerie Sarisky-Reed• EERE Clean Cities Briefing by Dennis Smith• DOE/FE Coal Fuels Program by Dan Driscoll• Toyota/MIT "Visualizing US Urbanization and Transportation Trends". Study• NA- Assessment of Resource Needs for Development of Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Technology & Potential Impacts of PHEVs• ARPA-E Briefing, Overview by Arun Majumdar, Batteries by Dave Danielson, and Biofuels by Eric Toone

To be scheduled:• Office of Electricity (PHEV integration)• DARPA (biofuels)• NA- Potential Energy Savings and Greenhouse Gas Reductions from Transportation- study in progress, schedule for Jan• NA- Economic and Environmental Impacts of Increasing Biofuels Production- study in progress, schedule next year• The Board on Agriculture and Natural Resources “Water Implications of Biofuels Production in the United States”• DOT- Alternate Fuel (biofuels) • DOT- Hydrogen

Dec 3 Peer Review – Participants

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PRESENT SME

Solar Fuels Dan Nocera, MIT

Agriculture – biofuels Robert Fraley, Monsanto

Engines John Heywood, MIT

Batteries/ Electrochemistry Yet-Ming Chiang, A123 Systems/MIT

Energy Efficiency Amory Lovins (Rocky Mountain Institute)

Hydrogen/ Fuel Cells Henry White, University of Utah

Cryogenic Storage Tom Drube, Chart Industries

Other John Deutch

NOT PRESENT

Materials science / nanotechnology George Whitesides, Harvard Conducted call prior to Dec 3rd

Biotechnology Jay Keasling - JBEI Call scheduled for Dec 14th

Dec 3 Peer Review – Key L1 comments (1 of 3)

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Engines/Platforms• Platform fitness needs to be covered as comprehensively as the power train. Light-weighting and an

optimised integrated design will have a huge impact on how much is needed from the battery, fuel cell and the volume of biofuels

• Integration of the platforms/engines team with the fuels groups is very important as there are many cross cutting issues as well as opportunities (eg. optimisation of FFV and ethanol properties)

• Important to include game changing innovations as well as incremental changes, but need to consider the need to have new operating models as the design, manufacturing and supply base is not set up for mass change. Also, cannot neglect where we are today and that the importance of cost, and the consumer who also would have to accept these changes

• Focus on prioritised pathways vs. specific end state recommendations. Recognise that there will be uncertainty in the data (eg. fuel efficiency bands as a result of technology improvements)

• Need to look more broadly than NAS studies• Need to get truck manufacturers involved in the engines/platforms team

Natural Gas• Engines are very important, so the integration with engines/platforms is critical• Platform fitness is also relevant • LNG safety concerns need to be addressed in the report• Role of R&D could be driving down the costs of integration and deployment• Team needs to deliver technology options that allow users to take advantage of a sustained low natural

gas price scenario and a view on how big this penetration could be for different applications

Dec 3 Peer Review – Key L1 comments (2 of 3)

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Biofuels• The optimal scale of conversion and technologies that allow local densification of feedstock will be

important • There has been fundamental technology shift in agriculture (sequencing of the crop genome,

biotechnology- still in its infancy, and computerization of the farm). These technologies are massively increasing yields and with further technology step changes, yields could double again, from 160 to over 300 bushels/acre- enough for food and fuel

• Debate on whether the right end fuel is ethanol vs. something that is more compatible with existing infrastructure. The technical and economic challenges of conversion to other fuels were highlighted

• The same farming and infrastructure technology could support the multiple conversion processes• The way the pinchpoints are coded, the thermochemical pathway seems to have fewer challenges than

biochemical• Emphasis that feedstock and biofuels development need to be done sustainably and that the issues

around penetration and the meeting the biofuels volume goals have to be addressed.

Electric• Unclear on what is the current assumed for battery costs and how this cost is expected to evolve and

how the manufacturing costs is treated for scale up vs. at scale• Cannot have battery costs are declining rapidly AND we need government support- these are

conflicting messages• Platform evolution is equally important here because you may not need as powerful batteries (reduction

in kw needed per mile)• Simplification of design and battery manufacturing key to driving down costs• The workforce requirements to build out this new industry should not be underestimated• Need to look at integrating batteries to other technologies (eg. capacitors to soak up the load)

Dec 3 Peer Review – Key L1 comments (3 of 3)

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Hydrogen• Scope and coding: Should unlikely technologies be gray or should the gray ones be those where their

development or failure will have minimal impact• Impact of platform fitness, particularly with respect to onboard storage requirements• Questions around whether centralised production will ever make sense• Need to highlight the most promising pathways• Link to white paper- hydrogen to CO2 to liquid fuel• Transiting to hydrogen will be very expensive• Cost and cultural factors with respect to hydrogen should not be underestimated

Final Comments• A big challenge will be to pull a useful consensus out of all this. We have diverse topics and people. It’s

hard to define but very important that we can produce a robust set of convincing recommendations and strike the appropriate balance

• Need to ask more “what-if”. Why stop at EV100. What would it take to get to EV200. • Integration is the key challenge, beef up platform fitness and especially light-weighting. Light-weighting

is one of the most important trends we’re seeing. We need to get into the platform fitness to get the right balance between end use efficiency and supply chain technologies. This could be a very important piece of work

• Challenge will be pulling these all together in a way that creates policies that allow comparative assessment. May be worth looking at energy source, storage and conversion. What efficiency and use are we getting out of conversion, etc. for each technology and application. EV’s was battery focused which was storage, biogas was energy source. Looking at an end-to-end allows comparison and lets the market walk through it. We need to be sure not just to look over the horizon but at what the first few steps need to be to position ourselves for what we don’t know which is what is going to be the right thing for the consumer. Where’s the energy coming from, how to we store it, how to we get useful value out of it.

January priorities

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• Actions from Peer Review• We will schedule a call with the TTG leads in January to discuss actions and way forward• To be discussed – documentation of the key technology challenges/pinchpoints (ie. narrative that goes

with the pinchpoint charts) for each sub group as it would appear in the final report and schedule review of this by L1’s

• Technology White Paper Staffing• List is growing- more came up at the L1 review• Working through scope, approach and staffing with the L1s• Staffing of original scope

• Artificial photosynthesis, staffed• cyano/macro algae – carbohydrate, staffed• artificial photosynthesis, staffed

• Still need to staff• CO2 to fuels• beyond lithium ion batteries (MIT or Bill Reinert contact)• advanced levitation (Berkeley or Northwestern)• free piston engines, (Berkeley or Northwestern)

• Other white paper topics • Separations – staffed• HCNG – staffed• LNG safety (came up on 3 Dec)• Wider implications of home refuelling (came up on 3 Dec)