Technology Outlook 2025

SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER

TECHNOLOGY

OUTLOOK

2025

It may be hard to believe we’re on the cusp of a technological revolution at a time when the global economy as a whole is slowing. But our view in DNV GL is that we are indeed entering a new ‘renaissance’ in industrial progress with the accelerated uptake of cyber-physical systems.

This publication deals with the probable rather than the possible. Many of the technologies we highlight are familiar; what is new, in our view, is that the coming decade is about the combination of advanced technologies and about implementation – where concepts such as automation, data-driven insights and grid parity acquire real meaning and scale.

The factory of the future will look nothing like those of today: it will be clean and largely empty of people. Additive manufacturing – or 3D printing – is dramatically changing where and how things are made. Spare parts for ships, for example, could be printed out at a port of convenience; conceivably from recycled material as circular economy models become pervasive. The ship of the future itself is rapidly becoming a loating computer, echoing developments in the automotive industry, where family cars today have more computing power than early space shuttles; self-driving vehicles of the future of course will have even more. Where sequencing of a human genome once took years, it is now accomplished in less than a week.

These, and similar dazzling developments in digitalization, are leading many industries and individuals, not least our own customers, to question what the future holds.

Part of the answer, we hope, you will ind in this ‘Technology Outlook 2025’. DNV GL publishes these Outlook reports at ive-year intervals to provide our customers with a basis for discussion and insight into the technology landscape of the next decade within their respective industries.

In many cases technical advances on their own do not translate fast enough into general progress and well-being without better laws and regulations that encourage the uptake and scaling of the technology. Regulations will also have to account for an increasing blend of technologies across physical, biological and digital domains.

History tells us that there is always a lag between the development of breakthrough technology and wide-scale adoption. For example, containerization revolutionized shipping from the 1950s, and yet the steel and machinery technology enabling it predated the irst container ships by half a century.

We at DNV GL feel uniquely positioned to offer a view on the gap between innovation and technology uptake. We are widely involved in the qualiication of new technologies across industries. We set global standards and best practices to advance safety and eficiency in a broad range of technologies and are passionate about collaboration across sectors: our experts drive more joint industry projects in our industries than any other organization.

TECHNOLOGY FOR THE FOURTH INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION

Our World 2025 04

Technology Innovation Drivers 20

Technology Outlook 38

Shipping 40

Energy 54

Life Sciences 68

Sustainable Oceans 82

Increasingly we are seeing a need for technical services not just at component level, but at the level of systems: across whole transportation chains, across gas value chains or within and across complex power transmission and distribution grids. This is very much part of the technically integrated and interconnected world we are seeing developing around us, where many conventional business models are being dramatically challenged.

Technology Outlook 2025 captures insights from our daily quest to work for a safer, smarter and greener future. We hope that it inspires and proves useful in guiding your future decisions.

Remi Eriksen

GROUP CEO

OU

R W

OR

LD

20

25

Society 06

Economy 10

Geopolitics 14

Environment 16

06 OUR WORLD 2025 Technology Outlook 2025

SOCIETY

Societal structures are changing at an unprecedented pace as a growing number of populations emerge from poverty, and people live longer, healthier lives, and ind reliable employment. The global population as a whole has never previously enjoyed the kind of access it now has to the same opportunities or earned higher levels of economic wealth per capita.

This rapid societal transformation is fuelled by increasing

global connectedness, technology innovation, and rising

productivity. Over the next decade more than half of the

world’s population will have access to the Internet, and

renewable power generation will accelerate progress

towards the goal of universal access to electricity. But many

megacities will struggle to provide adequate infrastructure

and municipal services to its citizens, even as these same

cities demonstrate leadership on climate change and emerge

as powerful entities on the geopolitical scene.

DEMOGRAPHY: Changes in structure and composition of the global

population.

CITIES: Urbanization places new

demands on cities and their infrastructures.

HEALTH:Healthcare system changes

create both new risks and new opportunities.

Technology Outlook 2025 OUR WORLD 2025 07

SOCIETY: DEMOGRAPHY

338 322

181313

664 680

525

3,228

105234

32107

North America

Europe

Asia-Pacific

Central & South America

Middle East & North Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa

2030

2009

Middle class population by region in 2009 and 2030

2030

2015

2000

North America

Africa

Europe

Asia

Oceania

Latin America+ Caribbean

Old age dependency ratio: Number of people aged over 65 per 100 people aged 15-64

19 2233

9 12 18

6 6 7

22 2636

9 11 17

15 18 24

POPULATION GROWTH:

Increasing by more than 80 million

a year, the global population will

reach 8 billion by 2025. Most of

this population growth will occur in

today’s developing countries. While

the average fertility rate in the rest of

the world is converging towards 2,

the fertility rate in Africa is expected

to remain above 4 throughout the

coming decade.

AGEING POPULATION:

Technology and economic growth

enable people to live longer. The

fraction of the global population

aged over 60 years will increase

from 11.7% in 2013 to about 15%

in 2025, reaching more than 20% in

2050. Pensions, healthcare, and the

other needs of the elderly will thus be

provided by a shrinking proportion of

the population.

EMPOWERMENT OF POPULATIONS IN ASIAAND AFRICA:

Education levels in Africa and Asia are

rising, gradually empowering their

populations to seek new employment

and business opportunities. By 2030 it

is expected that China alone will have

more educated people of working

age than Europe and North America

together.

EXPANDING MIDDLE CLASS:

The number of middle class

consumers globally is expected

to grow by 170% by 2030, from

1.8 billion in 2010 to 4.9 billion in

2030, with Asia accounting for 85%

of that growth. India’s middle class

currently represents 5–10% of its

population, but this is projected to

reach 90% by 2050.

Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2013)

Source: Kharas H. and G. Gertz (2010)


SUSTAINABLE URBANIZATION:

Cities play a pivotal role in one

of the fundamental challenges

of our time – enabling economic

growth within the ecological

limits of the Earth. The spreading

geographic and carbon footprint

of cities (urban area expansion

could triple from 2000 to 2030) will

exacerbate climate change, which,

in turn, will challenge the long-term

sustainability of cities.

Europe

North America

Oceania

Asia

Africa

Latin America + Caribbean

0

2011 2030 2050

1

2

3

4

Billion

Rural population

0

2011 2030 2050

1

2

3

4

Billion

Urban population

GROWING URBANISM:

By 2030 there will be 5 billion

people living in cities, up from

3.5 billion in 2010. This means

that 6 out of every 10 people will

be city dwellers. Urban areas in

developing regions will account for

most of this growth.

CITIES SPEARHEADING ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT:

Cities are the main engines of

economic wealth creation, currently

generating around 80% of global

economic output and widening the

gap in wealth and prosperity between

urban and rural populations. This will

become increasingly pronounced

towards 2025. At the same time, many

cities will struggle to provide homes,

services, and infrastructure for their

dramatically expanding populations.

DECLINING SLUM POPULATIONS:

From 1990 to 2012, the urban

population living in slums* declined

from over 1 billion to 863 million.

The United Nations Sustainable

Development Goals, which commit to

continuing the ight against poverty

and to providing safe, inclusive, and

sustainable settlements for all, are

expected to catalyse further signiicant

reductions in slum populations

towards 2025.

SOCIETY: CITIES

”Cities are in a unique position to catalyse wider climate action through leading by example,

partnerships with state and non-state actors, and cooperation with private sector actors and civil

society. For instance, the adoption of a compact, transit-oriented model in the world’s largest 724 cities could reduce GHG emissions up to the equivalent of

1.5 billion tonnes CO2 per year by 2030.”

– New Climate Economy Report, 2014

* UN-Habitat deines urban slum dwellers as, “… individuals residing in housing with one or more of the following conditions: inadequate

drinking water; inadequate sanitation; poor structural quality/durability of housing; over-crowding; and insecurity of tenure”.

Source: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2012)


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2000 2030

Deaths attributed to non-communicable diseases (as % of total number of deaths)

0%

10%

20%

30%

27%

2%3.5%

7.5%

8.5%

12%

18%

28%

32%

52%60%

World

Diabetes

Respiratorydiseases

Heartdiseases

Cancer

Low incomecountries

High incomecountries78% 77%

74%

40%

50%

2000 2030

INCREASING HEALTH EXPENDITURE:

The fraction of global GDP spent on

healthcare will increase sharply in the

coming decades. This is largely driven

by rising healthcare costs in developed

countries, linked to ageing populations,

increased patient expectations, a growing

burden of disease, sub-optimal allocation

of resources, and rising unit costs of care.

CHRONIC DISEASE PANDEMIC:

The number of deaths globally from

chronic non-communicable diseases

(NCDs) is expected to soar as prevalence

in developing countries approaches

the levels currently associated with

developed countries. If current trends

continue, NCDs will kill 55 million

annually by 2030. NCDs include heart

diseases, cancer, chronic respiratory

diseases, and diabetes.

PERSONALIZATION OF HEALTHCARE:

By 2025, healthcare will be considerably more

tailored to the individual proile of patients,

the majority of whom will meet their doctors

informed and empowered by online sources

and apps. Increased health literacy, and a

growing spectrum of technology assisting

in personalization of healthcare will enable

earlier intervention and health coaching.

GROWTH IN RESISTANCE TO ANTIBIOTICS:

Antibiotic resistance is one of the

predominant public health concerns of

the 21st century, and yet efforts to develop

new antibiotics since the 1980s have

been lacklustre at best. However, the tide

is turning, and, towards 2025, the World

Health Organization will increasingly stress

the need for collaborative efforts between

governments, hospitals, and pharmaceutical

companies to address this challenge.

SOCIETY: HEALTH

“Antibiotic resistance is no longer a prediction for the future, it is happening right now in every region of the world

and has the potential to affect anyone, of any age, in any country. A post-antibiotic

era – in which common infections and minor injuries can kill – is a very real

possibility for the 21st century.”

– WHO, June 2014

So

urc

e:

Eu

rop

ea

n E

nvi

ron

me

nta

l Ag

en

cy (

20

14

)


ECONOMY

ECONOMY:Global economy showing

signs of slowing down.

TRADE PATTERNS:Global value chains trigger

changing trade patterns.

NATURAL RESOURCES:A consumption peak of non-renewable natural resources

by 2025?

Even as the global economy adds impressively to per capita wealth, inequality will deepen, and natural resource constraints will start to make an impact. We will see the irst signiicant shift from a fossil fuel-powered economy towards an era where the world is increasingly powered by renewable energy. This will be an era where more emphasis is placed on energy and resource eficiency, and where policy mechanisms are increasingly used to motivate recycling and circular designs. India will experience extraordinarily strong growth over the

next decade and will rival Japan as the world’s third largest

economy by 2025. China may challenge the USA as the

number one largest economy.

Others in the top 10 by economic size will probably be

Germany, France, the UK, Russia, Brazil, - with the 10th

position occupied by either Italy, South Korea, Indonesia,

Mexico, or Turkey.


CONTINUED ECONOMIC GROWTH:

Global GDP per capita will increase by

more than 50% over the years 2010–

2030 (in PPP adjusted 2005 USD), with

non-OECD countries contributing

most of that growth. But the pace of

global economic growth is expected

to decelerate steadily over this period.

RISING INEQUALITY:

More than 70% of the global

population resides in countries with

increasing inequality. This trend is

set to continue, and will heighten

the potential for social and political

instability in many developed

countries. Income inequalities are also

expected to persist between rural and

urban areas, and between women and

men.

GROWING PUBLIC DEBT:

The accumulated global net public

debt is expected to approach or

surpass global GDP by 2035. This

will put severe constraints on policy

options, and affect the capacity of

governments to respond to major

social, economic, and environmental

challenges.

ECONOMY: TRENDS

2-3%

3-5%

5-7%

2030

2010

1-2%

43 53

10 17

28 37

2 4

510

38

7

24

14

35

3450

35 49

USA

CAN

AUS

EU

NAF

SAM

SSA

IND

CHN

RUS

GDP growth PPP in 2030 (blue shading) and GDP per capita PPP in thousands of 2005 USD (bar charts)

Japan

Emerging economies

USA

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Percentage of GDP

2010 2020 2035

DEEPENING YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT:

The considerable lack of utilization of

the youth workforce will remain a hurdle

for many countries to overcome in their

quest to sustain economic growth and

enhance quality of life. By 2025, more

than a quarter of the world’s youth

population (aged 15-24) will have no

productive work. Many, especially in

developing regions, will be employed

only informally.

“We have reached a tipping point. Inequality can no longer be treated as an afterthought. We need to focus the debate on how the benefi ts of growth

are distributed. The opening up of opportunity to reduce income inequalities can spur stronger

economic performance and improve living standards across the board.”

– José Ángel Gurría, OECD Secretary-General

Source: European Strategy and Policy Analysis A1:F26 (2013)

Source: The Peterson Institute for International Economics (2015)


Evolution of the earth’s economic centre of gravity (AD 1 to 2025)

1950

19601970 1980 1990 2000

2010

2025

1000

1500

1820

1913

1940

Between non-OECD counties

Between OECD and non-OECD counties

Between OECD counties

201212,799

billion USD

206065,381

billion USD

47%

38%

15%

33%

42%

25%

Volume and share of trade in 2012 and 2060

ECONOMIC POWER SHIFTS EASTWARD – GDP:

The centre of gravity of the world

economy is the geographic hotspot

based on the distance-weighted GDP

of 700 locations. In 1980 the hotspot

was midway between the economic

powerhouses of Europe and the

United States. By 2030 the hotspot is

forecast to be in Central Asia, i rmly

located between India and China.

ECONOMIC POWER SHIFTS EASTWARD – TRADE:

Asia’s share of global exports is

expected to nearly double to 39%

by 2030. In 2025, China will still be

Africa’s largest trading partner, and

developing countries will increasingly

expand from basic commodities

trading into new, higher value sectors.

This will drive more developed

nations to specialize and diversify in

order to compete.

ECONOMY: TRADE PATTERNS

“The question is not whether trade matters, but how we can make trade a better driver of equitable, sustainable develop-

ment. An ounce of trade can be worth a pound of aid.”

– Ban Ki-moon, Oct 1st 2014

REGIONAL TRADE AGREEMENTS:

Emerging regional and trans-regional

trade agreements will have reshaped

trade and investment l ows by 2025 and

spurred the proliferation of global value

chains. Key developments include the

Trans-Pacii c Partnership, the Transatlantic

Trade and Investment Partnership, and

economic communities in Southeast Asia,

Africa, and across the Atlantic.

INCREASED ECONOMIC INTERCONNECTEDNESS:

Interconnectedness brings major

impetus to freer trade globally that

could shift 650 million people out

of poverty over a 10-20-year period.

This is driven by the growth of global

value chains and increasing l ows of

intermediate goods and services.

Source: The Economist, Jun. 28th, 2012.

Source: OECD (2014)


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Mtoe

NorthAmerica

S & CAmerica

Europe &Eurasia

MiddleEast

AsiaPacific

Africa

Coal

Natural Gas

Liquids

Renewables

Hydroelectricity

Nuclear

20

15

20

20

20

25

20

15

20

20

20

25

20

15

20

20

20

25

20

15

20

20

20

25

20

15

20

20

20

25

20

15

20

20

20

25

Energy consumption by source 2015-2025

Antomony

China

84

Indium

China

57

Magnesium

China

86

Niobium

Brazil

91

Platinium

South Africa

74

Tungsten

China

85

Tantalum

Mozambique

34

Rare EarthElements

China

95

Beryllium

USA

90

Fluorspar

China

63

Germanium

China

68

Graphite

China

70

Gallium

China

51

Cobalt

China

55

Percentage of global production of EU critical raw materials within a single country (2011)

INCREASED DEMAND:

Population growth and new consumption

patterns associated with growing

prosperity will place ever more pressure

on natural resources. Global energy

consumption will rise by 20%-35%

over the next 15 years and per capita

consumption of base metals and steel

will grow proportionally with GDP per

capita, up to a certain saturation level.

FOSSIL FUELS FEELING THE HEAT:

Coal, gas, and oil will continue to account

for more than 80% of global energy

output in the next decade. However,

driven by the ight against climate change

and cost pressures, the fossil fuel industry

will have enhanced focus on achieving

cost and emission reductions.

CRITICAL RAW MATERIALS:

The production of many raw materials

of critical importance to a range of

industries is highly concentrated

geographically. China, for instance, holds

more than 50% of the known global

reserves of nine of fourteen raw materials

classiied as critical by the European

Commission, and also accounts for 95%

of the global production of Rare Earth

Elements.

ECONOMY: NATURAL RESOURCES

WASTE – THE NEW OIL:

Waste is increasingly being viewed as a

resource, and the practice of restoring

used products for resale is expanding

rapidly. It has been estimated that should

economies worldwide successfully move

to circular models, then, in addition

to positive environmental effects like

reducing GHG emissions, more than

US$1 trillion a year could be generated

by 2025, with 100,000 new jobs created

over the next ive years.

Source: BP Energy Outlook 2035 (2015)

Source: European Environmental Agency (2013)


GEOPOLITICS

Geopolitical relations are increasingly concentrating around the poles of accord and discord. On the one hand, contemporary geopolitics sets priorities for collective action on global challenges – like global trade, climate change, terrorism, sustainable use of natural resources, and the UNDP Sustainable Development Goals. On the other hand, geopolitical rivalries are on the rise – from the Arctic to the coastal waters of Japan, in the Middle East, and across the former Soviet Union. The United Nations will continue to play a pivotal role in

coordinating the efforts of the world’s nations, for example,

on climate change.

However, opposing political motives among the veto powers

on the Security Council will prevent the UN from acting

decisively on key security-related matters.

GEOPOLITICS:Old and new rivalries, disputed resources,

and new sources of power


TOP THREE REMAIN, EMERGING ECONOMIES GAIN INFLUENCE:

USA, China, and the EU will continue to

dominate the global geopolitical scene in

2025, but China’s geopolitical weight will

grow relative to USA and the EU. The Big 3

will, however, be increasingly challenged

by other rising economies and by strong

regional blocs. Europe’s inl uence will be

more subdued than that of USA and China.

Economic woes and the rise of nationalism

amongst its member states is turning Europe’s

attention in on itself, with a much diminished

capacity for action beyond its borders.

HIERARCHIES CHALLENGED:

Discussions forming the international policy

agenda have previously been primarily led

by national governmental authorities. This

is changing as city, state, and provincial

governments are forming strategic partner-

ships with other actors, increasing their ability

to inl uence the international policy debate. In

2025 we will increasingly see forms of network

governance that are characterized by trust,

partnership, diplomacy, and lack of structure.

C40 is a network of megacities aiming to facilitate dialogue, cooperation, and information

exchange amongst city offi cials to inspire collective action to reduce

GHGs and climate risks.

GEOPOLITICAL RIVALRY AND RESOURCE COMPETITION:

Rivalry over access to energy and ever-scarcer

natural resources will be a major determinant

of geo-political shifts in the world in the

coming decade and beyond. The USA’s

continued pursuit of energy self-sufi ciency

and relative disengagement from geopolitics

have diminished its ‘super cop’ effect and

allowed other geopolitical tensions to fester.

Protectionism and resource nationalism is on

the rise, as are competing territorial claims.

This is evident in a broad spectrum of regional

tensions and conl icts.

Four countries – Denmark, Russia, USA, and

Canada – have made conl icting territorial

claims in the Arctic, based on the extension of

their respective national continental shelves, a

conl ict exacerbated by declining summer ice

coverage. China, Vietnam, Malaysia, Taiwan,

and the Philippines are competing for natural

resources, territory, and transport routes in the

South China Sea. The bitter sectarian conl icts

and weak governance in the Middle East

region is highly sensitive to movements in the

oil market.

Russia

Canada

Greenland

Canada

Alaska

Russia

Norway

North Pole

US

Denmark

200-mile line

China

Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands

Spratly Islands

Scarborough Shoal

Macclesfied Bank

Pratas Islands

Paracel Islands

Taiwan

Philippines

Vietnam

Malaysia

China

Taiwan

Philippines

Vietnam

Malaysia

Japan

Approximate locationof island(s)

Nation Claiming Area

GEOPOLITICS: TRENDS

Source: BBC, Dec. 15th, 2014

Source: npr.org, Sept. 7th, 2012.


ENVIRONMENT

The global environment is under increasing pressure from a range of inluencing factors, including population growth, deforestation, climate change, agriculture, air and water pollution, mounting consumption of resources, and poor waste management. Taken together, these negative forces are having increasingly alarming effects on ecosystems, wildlife habitats, biodiversity, and the quality of life in many communities across the world.

Effective measures to protect the environment for current

and future generations are therefore imperative. Efforts to

establish baselines and monitor developments are critical for

informing policymakers about required courses of action.

The purpose of our company, DNV GL, is to safeguard life,

property, and the environment. To this end, we work closely

with governments and industry to develop and deploy

effective measures to preserve the health of our planet.

ECOSYSTEMS:Many of the world’s ecosystems

are critically threatened

CLIMATE CHANGE:Decade of truth: setting the

trajectory toward 2050

POLLUTION:Lethal and irreversible environmental damage


CONTINUED DEFORESTATION:

The Earth’s forest area is being

reduced by about 5 million

hectares each year – an area larger

than Switzerland – due mainly to

expansion of cropland and urban

areas. Deforestation is destroying

wildlife habitats and decreasing the

carbon stocks in the world’s forests

by about a half a gigatonne annually.

AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION:

The global demand for food is

escalating rapidly. This is driven by

population growth, increased wealth,

and the resource intensity of food

supply. If current food consumption

and food waste management

practices continue, agricultural

output will need to increase by 60%

by weight by 2050 relative to 2005.

WATER RESOURCES STRESS:

Global water demand is likely

to increase by 55% between

2000 and 2050, with the largest

demand increases coming from

manufacturing, electricity, and

domestic use. By 2025, 1.8 billion

people will be living in countries or

regions with absolute water scarcity,

and fully two-thirds of the world

population could be facing water

stress conditions.

ENVIRONMENT: ECOSYSTEMS

Terrestrial species Freshwater species Marine species

-39% -76% -39%

Observed decline of Living Planet Index species 1970-2010BIODIVERSITY AND SPECIES ABUNDANCE:

The three main components of

biodiversity – genes, species,

and ecosystems – are all showing

signs of decline. Habitat damage,

overexploitation, pollution, invasive alien

species, and climate change are the i ve

principal causes of biodiversity loss.

Actions taken in the coming decade will

determine the fate of biological diversity

for millennia.

Million metric tonnes

0

30

60

90

120

150

Beef, pork and poultry production 2012 and 2024

Beef Pork Poultry


0

300

600

900

1,200

1,500

Crop production 2012 and 2024

Vegetableoils

Rice Protein meals

Wheat Oilseeds Coarse grains

Increase 2012-2024 2012 Increase 2012-2024 2012

Source: OECD/FAO (2015)

Source: WWF (2014)


RISK OF STRANDED ASSETS:

Long-term investors are beginning to realize

that climate change can undermine the

inancial performance of their portfolios, and

are starting to shift investments toward low

carbon and “climate safe” activities. Combined

with the effect of regulatory mechanisms, this

will drive an accelerated shift of investments

away from coal-ired power and the extraction

of marginally economic oil resources.

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Gap between current level of decline in carbon intensity and trajectory required to meet 2 degree target.

Current carbon intensity decline trend

An average decline of 6.2% per year is required from 2015 and onwards to meet 2 degree target

2000 2005 2015 2025 2030 2040 20452010 2020 2035 2050

Tonnes of CO2 emitted per million USD Gross World Product

0

Alb

erta

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 130

Carbon tax levels 2015 (USD / tonne CO2)

Ca

liforn

ia

Fra

nce

Slo

ven

ia

Irela

nd

De

nm

ark

, British

Co

lum

bia

UK price floor

Tokyo

Fin

lan

d (o

the

r fossil fu

els)

No

rwa

y

Fin

lan

d (tra

nsp

ort fu

els),

Sw

itzerla

nd

Sw

ed

en

Go

vern

me

nt

Pri

vate

Coal

Gas

Oil

Power

Share of fossil fuel value at risk for government and private investors 2015-2035

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

LACK OF CONCERTED ACTION:

By 2025 it will be widely acknowledged

that we are on a trajectory to 3°C warming

or more, and that lack of concerted global

action on climate change is likely to

prevent us from keeping global warming

within 2 °C. The combined atmospheric

concentration of the Kyoto GHG will

be above 480 ppm carbon dioxide

equivalents (CO2e), and still rising at a

steady pace of about 3 ppm per year.

CARBON PRICING GAINING TRACTION:

There will be no global carbon price in

2025, but national and regional carbon

pricing will gain scale, and businesses

will increasingly incorporate carbon

price effects in strategic planning and

investment decisions. This is underscored

by several Intended Nationally Determined

Contributions submitted at COP 21 in Paris,

indicating that carbon pricing will be an

element of their mitigation strategies.

RENEWABLES TOWARDS PRICE PARITY – A NEW ERA:

The share of renewables (particularly

solar) in the electric power mix is

rising rapidly, while prices continue to

decrease. Commercial-scale grid parity

for storage plus solar PV is possible

as early as in 2020. By 2025, onshore

wind and solar PV will be the cheapest

forms of electricity generation in many

countries, diminishing the operating

hours of traditional baseload power

plants.

ENVIRONMENT: CLIMATE CHANGE

Source: PwC (2014)

Source: World Bank (2015)

Source: The Global Commission on the Economy and Climate (2014)


0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2030

2000N

orth America

Europe

Latin America

IndiaC

hina

Africa

Pacific Ocean

Indian Ocean

Atlantic Ocean


Nitrogen effluents from wastewater River discharges to the sea

2000

20002030

2030

Nitrogen

Phosphorus

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Pacific Ocean

Indian Ocean

Atlantic Ocean

Nitrogen effluents from wastewater River discharges to the sea


POLLUTION OF LAKES AND RIVERS:

In the next decade, the detrimental

effects of excessive nutrient release to

water bodies will become more evident,

including widespread processes such as

eutrophication and acidiication. By 2050,

the number of lakes with hypoxia may

increase by 20% globally, predominantly

in Asia, Africa, and Brazil.

AIR POLLUTION:

Regional trends in air pollution

differ. NOx, SO2, and O3 emissions

are declining in OECD countries,

for instance, but are stable or

increasing in other parts of the world.

Although black carbon emissions

are generally decreasing globally,

annual premature deaths linked to

particulate matter and ground level

ozone among urban populations may

double by 2050.

PERSISTENT ORGANIC POLLUTANTS (POPs):

POPs are compounds absorbed

by microorganisms and plants that

then accumulate in wildlife and are

associated with a range of adverse

human health effects. By 2025, there

will have been signiicant progress

towards eliminating the production,

use, release, and storage of POPs

as a consequence of international

leadership and the broad adoption

of the Stockholm Convention on

Persistent Organic Pollutants.

ENVIRONMENT: POLLUTION

OCEAN WASTE:

In 2025 ocean waste and the

associated mix of chemicals and

non-biodegradable components are

broadly acknowledged as a serious

and increasing threat to the marine

environment. Plastics, which represents

as much as 80% of the total marine

debris, is continuing to cause the deaths

of hundreds of thousands seabirds and

marine mammals every year.

“The sustainable management of chemicals and waste must be achieved, in order for our economies to

transition towards a greener, safer and more inclusive path, and in order for our health, and that of our

children, to be protected, wherever we live, whatever our job, whatever our gender, nationality or income.”

– Rolph Payet, UN Executive Secretary of Basel, Rotterdam and Stockholm conventions

Source: OECD (2012)

TE

CH

NO

LO

GY

INN

OV

AT

ION

DR

IVE

RS

Policy and regulation 24

Sustainable use of resources 26

Climate change 28

Case: Microgrids 30

Digitalization 32

Case: Smarter cities 34

22 TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION DRIVERS Technology Outlook 2025

Historically, technology innovation has driven world population growth – from 1.6 billion to 6 billion individuals in the 20th century alone – and improved health, living standards and the general quality of life along the way. In the 21st century, the emphasis falls on sustainability and the ability of technology innovation to take care of both development demands and the health of planet Earth.

DNV GL’s playground is the technology

frontier. We assist customers develop and

adopt novel technology at scale in an eficient

manner, often redeining perceptions of what

is technically feasible and economically viable.

The new challenges posed by sustainable

use of resources and action against climate

change are triggering intensive technology

development efforts across many industries.

To be effective, these innovation efforts need

to become more collaborative and they

also require well thought-through policy

mechanisms and regulatory measures.

This is especially the case for increasingly

complex cyber physical systems that are

governed by connected and collaborating

computational elements controlling physical

entities. Design, development, operation,

and oversight of these systems will require an

increasing degree of collaboration between

manufacturers, technology users, and

stakeholders – facilitated by common codes

and standards.

AD

AP

TIO

N M

ITIG

ATIO

N SO

CIETAL

CH

ANG

ES

TR

AN

SPO

RT

E

NERGY

LIFE

SCIENCES

CLIM

AT

E C

HA

NG

E

PO

LIC

Y A

ND R

EGULATION

Carbon footprintTransport safety

Road transport pollution

Road infrastructure

Environmental sustainability

Energy equity

Energy security

Low

car

bon

citi

es

The

circ

ular e

conom

y

Sharing e

conom

y m

odel

Urban infrastructure resilience

Emergency preparedness

Coastal protectionPower grid resilience

Ph

arm

ace

utica

l scien

ce

Se

afoo

d

Foo

d su

pp

lyH

ea

lthca

re

Fuel efficiency

Carbon captu

re, u

tilizatio

n and stora

ge

Fuel switch

Renewable energy

Technology Outlook 2025 TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION DRIVERS 23

SENSOR

U

BIQUIT

OUS

B

IG D

ATA

S

MA

RT

TECHNOLOGY

COM

MUN

ICATIO

N

AN

ALY

TIC

S

T

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HN

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MATERIALS FOR CONSUMPTIO

N O

F WATER R

ESOU

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ELECTRIFICATION MINERAL RESOURCES M

AN

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SUSTAINABLE USE OF RESO

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DIGIT

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Ele

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spo

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Ma

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ind

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Up

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Imp

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Mat

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tion

Recyc

ling

Harvesti

ng

Reclamatio

n

Footprin

ting

Machine learning

Cognitive technologiesAutonomous systems

Software revolution

Open source software and community

Cloud computingTerrestrial: 5G

Satellite comm

unication

The

Inte

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t of Th

ing

s

Lab o

n a ch

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En

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MIN

DM

AP


POLICY AND REGULATION

Policies and regulations shaped over the next decade, and the effectiveness of their implementation, may determine the well-being of our planet centuries from now.

Our planet is being put under pressure on many fronts, challenging its capacity to

provide for sustainable economic and social development simultaneously.

In the coming decade, governments will rely more heavily on technology innovation

to reach their policy objectives within economic and social constraints, and to resolve

partly conlicting policy objectives. The push for continuous and strong GDP growth,

for instance, is often at odds with the need to reduce consumption of resources and

avoid major climate changes. Such contrasting challenges provide strong incentives for

the creation of innovative and balanced solutions.

ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE

Reduced road trafic pollution will primarily be

driven by electriication of the vehicle leet and

improved fuel eficiency / reduced emission

intensity. Other measures include fuel switch

incentives, incremental taxation of vehicles

based on engine power and car weight,

and redirection of trafic away from densely

populated areas. This drives innovations

related to, for example, alternative fuel

infrastructure, emission catalysts, lightweight

materials, and stud-free winter tyres.

ROAD TRANSPORT POLLUTION (NOx, SOx AND PM10)

Transportation safety is governed by sector

speciic regulations or rules and risk acceptance

criteria. However, all transport sectors will be

affected by the advent of autonomous vehicles

and intelligent transport systems assisting the

operation of a vehicle, ship or aircraft. New

regulations, most critically at local and then

regional level, will need to be developed in

lock step with these developments to ensure

compliance with applicable safety standards.

TRANSPORT SAFETY

Transport Energy Life Sciences

In many cities, trafic congestion is choking

economic productivity and, quite literally, the

citizenry through associated air pollution. This

is encouraging the introduction of measures

to optimize the use of current infrastructure,

such as peak-hour differentiated road tolls and

park-and-ride infrastructure, and tax incentives

to stimulate the use of home ofice solutions.

The food supply chain will be subject to

much greater scrutiny in the coming decades.

Food security issues and increased customer

expectations concerning food safety, tracing

and food content will inluence how all parts

of the supply chain develop. New regulations

will catalyze new technology. DNA tracking

and organic sensors, for instance, will offer

new solutions for monitoring quality and

composition of nutritional content throughout

the food supply chain.

FOOD SUPPLY


ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY

Seafood is vital to the world’s food security,

but global population growth has placed

our oceans under severe pressure. The

seafood sector urgently needs an enabling

policy and regulatory framework combining

environmental, economic and social

sustainability. This will include food security,

responsible exploitation of marine resources,

reduction of environmental impacts on marine

and land-based ecosystems, protection of

biodiversity and eradication of forced labour.

SEAFOOD

The universal quest for more sustainable

healthcare systems will necessitate broad

reforms and/or targeted regulations from

governments, designed to cut costs and

improve the quality of their health care

systems. Policies will promote services based

on the experience of the patient to facilitate

co-creation of care. New payment models will

be critical for success and are likely to include

pay-for-performance and population based

payments.

HEALTHCARE

Transport accounts for roughly a quarter

of total global CO2 emissions. Emission

reductions will primarily be achieved by modal

shifts in short distance urban travel, improved

fuel eficiency, and less carbon intensive

power trains. While shifts in mode of urban

transport and improved fuel eficiency may

materialize with minimal policy push, increased

deployment of alternative power trains will

require tailored policy measures.

Energy security is the effective management

of primary energy supply, the reliability of

energy infrastructure, and the ability to meet

current and future demand. The next decade

will present new energy security challenges as a

result of upscaling of renewables, downscaling

of coal, and more distributed power generation.

This will encourage energy companies to

diversify their portfolio, and spur technology

developments within energy supply forecasting

and management, and power grid operation.

CARBON FOOTPRINT

ENERGY SECURITY

Environmental sustainability requires supply

and demand-side energy eficiencies and

the development of energy supply from

renewable and other low-carbon sources.

Although energy eficiency investments often

have short return-on-investment timeframes,

widespread implementation of energy

eficiency measured will require a strong

policy push and tailored regulations, such as

renewable portfolio standards and emission

performance standards.

In order to limit pharmaceutical spending

growth, legislators will introduce regulations

that attempt to stamp out anti-competitive

practices and promote the use of generics.

At the same time, the industry will respond

by riding the personalised medicine wave,

moving from mass-market sale to a target-

market approach. Requirements and

methodologies for post-market surveillance

will evolve to meet stakeholder requirements

for safe and effective products.

PHARMACEUTICAL SCIENCE

A key objective of national energy policy is to

provide universal and affordable energy for a

country’s population. While most industrialized

countries provide nearly universal access to

electricity, many developing countries have

much lower coverage. Although solar PV will

allow populations in developing countries

to gain interim access to electricity with

minimal policy support, the provision of grid

connection and stable uninterrupted supply

will require tailored policy mechanisms.

ENERGY EQUITY


Further advances in automotive and shipping

will massify the electric and hybrid electric

powertrain market, implying a shift towards

Li-ion or next-generation batteries, with unique

materials needs compared with traditional

technology. Advances in vehicle and

infrastructure technology are required to make

this practical and viable to the wider public.

Innovation in energy storage is driven

by the ability to manipulate and design

materials at the nano-scale. This is enabling

the development of batteries with higher

capacities and longer lifetimes. While lithium

is in rich supply across the globe, supporting

elements required to make cathodes, such as

nickel and cobalt, may introduce supply chain

issues in the coming decades.

Continual gains in the eficiency of solar PV cells

are being obtained through improvements in

materials science and fabrication. Wind power

is enabled through the use of critical elements

with singular magnetic properties such as

neodymium. The geological distribution of

many novel elements constrains the supply

chain and elevates prices. Advances in the

use of more common elements hold greater

potential to increase the uptake of these

technologies.

In recognition of increased demand for

resources, and the need to reduce the GHG

footprint of products, industries are seeking

opportunities to move away from resources

that are either scarce relative to demand, or

have a high energy input. There is, for instance,

a strong trend for the replacement of steel

with lightweight alloys, typically comprising

Mg, Al, and Li, or novel designs that reduce the

amount of steel required to obtain the same

mechanical properties.

These transitions will change the landscape

of the materials supply chain, and spur

technological innovation in reining,

manufacturing, inishing and assembly.

At the same time, careful analysis of the risk

and the lifecycle costs should be performed

when substituting materials. For instance,

on a per mass basis, producing aluminium

and magnesium requires signiicantly higher

energy inputs compared with steel, but the

fuel savings from using lightweight alloys in

automotive vehicles can recoup that initial

energy investment within 1-2 years.

SUSTAINABLE USE OF RESOURCES

A growing population that is able to buy more per capita is creating an unsustainable demand for our planet’s resources.

To enable our planet to provide for future generations, we must work towards sustainable practices

for resource extraction and consumption. There are three key imperatives shaping the policy agenda:

(i) reducing our reliance on fossil fuels through electriication;

(ii) adopting sustainable consumption of mineral resources; and

(iii) improving the management of fresh-water resources.

Technology has potential to address all three of these imperatives, but possibly at a higher cost

than customers are willing to pay. Cost-lowering technological development must therefore go

hand-in-hand with efforts to develop innovative resource-eficient solutions. Examples of this include

precision farming – which releases only the necessary amounts of nitrogen and other nutrients –

and solar PV – for which there are a growing number of examples where policy mechanisms and

technology innovation have made solar PV cost-competitive compared with electricity from, for

example, gas-ired power plants.

ELECTRIFICATION OF TRANSPORT

UPSCALING ENERGY STORAGE

MATERIALS IN WIND AND SOLAR

MATERIAL SUBSTITUTION

The threat of depleting mineral reserves has

largely been offset by the discovery of new

deposits and improved methods of extracting

and reining lower quality ores. However, the

general energy intensity of mining operations

has increased steeply owing to falling ore

body concentrations. Continued efforts are

needed to ind technological solutions to this

challenge.

IMPROVED MINING

Materials for electriication Consumption of mineral resources Water resource management


Efforts to reduce water consumption will

require accurate benchmarking of actual

use relative to target levels of eficiency. This

may involve real-time monitoring of water

distribution systems, eficiency labelling of

water-consuming appliances, and metering of

residential water consumption. Tailored policy

mechanisms may follow, such as progressive

pricing of water consumption, which in turn

may encourage further technology-enabled

eficiency gains.

FOOTPRINTING

While commodity metals such as steel,

magnesium, and copper, can be recovered

relatively easily, small amounts of metals in,

for example, electronic waste can be harder

to recover. The United Nations Environment

Programme (UNEP) International Resource Panel

therefore recommends recycling products rather

than recycling individual metals. This shift is,

however, currently hampered by a perception of

higher costs, liability issues, and the fast pace of

technological development.

In water-scarce regions, the battle against water

losses will spur increased adoption of eficient

irrigation and rainwater harvesting technology

in agriculture, sensor-based surveillance of

municipal water distribution systems, and

a scale-up of renewable energy-powered

desalination. Improved rainwater management

techniques can boost crop yields by a factor of

2 to 4 in parts of Africa and Asia.

HARVESTING

Fresh water scarcity relative to demand will

lead to increased reliance on reclamation,

puriication, and re-use of water discharges.

Technology solutions will include residential

re-use of waste-water for sanitation,

reclamation of agricultural water run-off,

municipal or decentralized waste water

treatment facilities, and technologies capable

of treating waste-water while generating

energy.

RECLAMATION

Gallium

Indium

Germanium

Neodynium

Platinum

TantalumSilv

er

Cobalt

Palladium

Titanium

Copper

Raw material demand from emerging technologies relative to global production in 2006 for all uses

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

2006

2030

RECYCLING

Source: United Nations Environment Programme (2013)


Exposure to increasingly extreme weather and

to progressive sea level rise will create a need

for retroitting some coastal infrastructures.

This can be achieved by lifting exposed

infrastructure components to higher levels,

and by introducing lood protection measures

such as walls and removable perimeters, or,

for metro systems, by installing novel inlatable

bags in tunnels to segment metro lines and

prevent further looding.

CLIMATE CHANGEGlobal warming and associated climate changes are among the greatest challenges of our time. Impacts such as melting of glaciers, reduced crop yields, alteration of ecosystems and increased prevalence of severe loods and droughts can be seen already.

Responding to this challenge requires both mitigation measures that reduce global

emissions of GHGs and adaptation measures that increase climate change resilience.

A more sustainable use of resources is urgently needed, including a shift away from our

heavy reliance on fossil fuels.

The development and adoption of new technology are cornerstones in national plans

for addressing climate change. For mitigation, particular emphasis is put on escalating

renewable power generation, boosting the adoption of energy eficiency measures, and

developing ways to reduce GHG emissions from continued consumption of fossil fuels.

Adaptation requires technologies that enhance the resilience of assets and infrastructure,

while information and communication technology will be essential in shaping a society in

which a more sustainable consumption of resources is a central tenet.

POWER GRID RESILIENCE

URBAN INFRASTRUCTURE RESILIENCE

COASTAL PROTECTION

SHARING ECONOMY MODEL

Escalating overconsumption of our planet’s

resources is triggering a movement to

create a circular economy where product

manufacturing is based on ‘cradle to cradle’

principles, rather than linear ‘cradle-to-grave’.

A circular economy is expected to spur

innovations within materials, manufacturing

and recycling, as well as a range of new

business concepts for the reuse, repair,

remanufacturing and technological upgrading

of goods and components.

THE CIRCULAR ECONOMY

Adaptation Mitigation Societal changes

Various technological, economic and social

forces are driving a major trend to introduce

business models and market places for asset

sharing that provide consumers with on-

demand access to products, services, and

resources without the burdens of ownership.

The growth in innovative sharing models is

disrupting established sectors as diverse as

transportation, travel, buildings, tools, and

farming (e.g., Airbnb, Cleanweb and Uber).

Grid resiliency programmes aim primarily

at mitigating weather-related outages

across grids. Innovative grid conigurations

are explored where cascading failures are

delimited by fault isolation, distributed

generation and so-called intentional

islanding of critical customers. In addition the

vulnerability of electrical components against

extreme weather is mitigated by so-called grid

hardening, such as upgrading of poles and

cabling of lines.

Urban infrastructure refers to the physical,

social and governance structures needed

to operate cities. This includes infrastructure

for energy, mobility, telecommunication,

water, sanitation and waste management. The

complexity and interdependence of these

structures require governance that is based

on a systems view, and innovative uses of

technology are necessary to boost resilience

and reduce vulnerability to climate change.


All industries in the transport sector have

targets for fuel eficiency improvement. This,

along with the impetus to reduce costs is

driving an aggressive implementation of

energy eficiency measures. These include new

engine technologies, enhanced hydrodynamic

or aerodynamic design, and electronic systems

to monitor fuel consumption and automate

fuel consumption reduction measures, such as

the automatic stop of idling engines.

FUEL EFFICIENCY

The quest to reduce the carbon intensity of the

transport sector is causing a rising demand for

low carbon engine technologies: gas engines

are replacing diesel engines onboard ships;

land, sea and road transport are increasingly

using biofuel blends; ever more cars and ships

are being built with electric or hybrid electric

engines; automotive manufacturers are

introducing cars with hydrogen fuel cells for

light and heavy road transport.

Satellites and other remote sensing and

processing tools are increasingly being used in

programmes for emergency preparedness, for

instance in the prediction of cyclone tracks and

intensity. Remote sensing technology is also used

extensively to monitor the status of potential

emergency situations, for instance, in landslide-

susceptible regions. Effective deployment of

these technologies for emergency preparedness

will often require eficient dissemination of

actionable outputs to multiple public authorities.

FUEL SWITCH

EMERGENCY PREPAREDNESS AND MANAGEMENT

Urban areas account for about 70% of

global energy use and energy-related GHG

emissions. Measures such as water saving

and recycling programmes, energy eficiency

standards for buildings, creating low carbon

public transport systems, and securing a

low carbon energy supply are all within the

inluence of cities. Cities can also stimulate

climate friendly behaviour by making climate

actions visible to citizens, for instance through

social media.

A great deal of technological development

is focused on boosting the output from

renewable energy sources. Efforts within wind

and solar PV generally focus on enhancing

eficiency and reducing cost, whereas novel

concepts for wave, tidal and geothermal energy

are more concerned with demonstrating

reliability and commercial viability. The

luctuating nature of the power output from

renewable sources also requires innovation

within power grid design and management.

CCUS is a key technology for reducing CO2

emissions from large point sources. While

the technology per se is already technically

proven at scale, the level of deployment is still

low. Technology innovation efforts today are

primarily targeted at lowering the price of CO2

capture, and demonstrating the reliability of

CO2 geological storage and CO2 enhanced

oil recovery as mechanisms for long term

isolation of CO2 in the subsurface.

LOW CARBON CITIES

RENEWABLE ENERGY

CARBON CAPTURE, UTILIZATION AND STORAGE (CCUS)


MICROGRIDS

Microgrids are localized power grids that operate in

synchrony with, or independently from, the main grid. As

such, they offer resilience against both physical and cyber

disruptions. A variety of microgrid designs have been

developed in recent years. Some systems are integrated

into the local grid and serve discrete communities like

universities and corporate campuses, while other systems

are “off grid” and operate autonomously in serving single

buildings or energy domains. Thus, a microgrid is not

characterized by its size, but rather by its functionality.

Microgrids also open up opportunities for distributed energy

sources, both conventional and renewable (solar and wind)

as well as storage devices such as batteries.

Whilst still in their infancy, microgrids are poised to play

a strategic role in the future landscape of electricity

distribution. Early movers, such as the state of Connecticut in

the US, have supported the development and deployment

of microgrids through pilot funding programmes. The

Connecticut DEEP Microgrid Pilot Program was launched

with the intention of increasing grid resilience against

extreme weather. The Wesleyan University microgrid – which

was the irst out of nine initially inanced projects to become

operational – is designed to power the entire campus in the

event of a major outage.



Microgrids use local and often renewable energy

sources to serve local demands. In so doing, they help

to reduce the energy losses typical of large transmission

and distribution networks.

DIGITALIZATION

The increased complexity of microgrid operations

demands higher observability and controllability of

various components within the microgrid, both under

“off grid” operation and during the synchronization

with the main grid. By providing components with

digital sensors and sophisticated controls, operations

can be monitored and optimized in order to improve

performance and enhance quality of power supply.

CLIMATE CHANGE

Microgrids can guard against major grid disturbances

– such as those wrought by Hurricane Sandy – by

intentionally disconnecting from the main grid to

form an island power system. In the wake of Sandy,

large areas of the Eastern seaboard in the US were left

without power, not due to direct storm damage, but

rather to grid failures that occurred kilometres away and

propagated through the system.


Owing to the benei ts brought about by microgrids,

we are seeing the progressive introduction of policy

and regulatory incentives aimed at fostering their

development and implementation. Public-private

partnerships are also being established, for instance

in Singapore, from where the i rst large-scale

demonstration project of microgrids in Southeast Asia is

being led.

DRIVERS OF MICROGRID DEVELOPMENT


The IoT refers to the network of “all” physical

objects (hardware) that can be connected

to the internet or a local web. Software is an

instrumental enabler through provision of data

aggregation and data analytics functionalities.

Examples of IoT-enabled applications are

remote monitoring and control of homes, and

personal health and i tness tracking. By 2025,

the IoT is expected to encompass 0.5-1 trillion

devices – with a potential economic impact of

2.7-6.2 trillion USD annually.

DIGITALIZATION

The term digitalization refers to the effect on society achieved through integration of digital technologies into everyday life.

These effects include the restructuring of social domains around digital communication and

infrastructures, changes to business models and operations, and how value for customers and

stakeholders is generated and delivered.

Digitization – the conversion of analogue streams of information into digital bits – is in effect a

sub-set of digitalization, which is fueling technology innovation across industry sectors: helping

society do things cheaper, faster and better; allowing individuals and businesses to obtain more

control and inl uence; and pushing the boundaries of current technology frontiers.

Digital technologies allow global interconnectedness 24/7 and offer the ability to combine,

analyze and generate actionable knowledge from large and complex data streams in real time.

Innovation opportunities also arise from the emergence of more `intelligent´ digital systems

assisting or replacing human judgment or decisions.

LAB ON A CHIP

THE INTERNET OF THINGS (IoT)

Over the next decade we expect to see satellite

communication speeds of up to 50 Mbps, and

low orbit nano-satellites weighing less than

10 kg, bringing dramatic costs reductions.

Low-cost, WLAN-connectable satellites will

provide near-global coverage 24/7, allowing

real-time high-dei nition video streaming

and detailed AIS tracking. Cheaper satellite

communication subscriptions will be balanced

by the need for higher bandwidth.

SATELLITE COMMUNICATION

Sensor technology Ubiquitous communication Big data analytics Smart technologies

The next generation 5G network is expected

to be rolled out by 2020 to meet increased

demands, such as a data transfer rate faster

than 1 Gbps. The network will have to cater

for new use-cases enabled by the IoT and

fuli l the demand of multimedia broadcasts.

5G network functionality will also enable

individual devices to communicate directly

with each other rather than relying on network

operators' base stations.

TERRESTRIAL: 5G

Energy to power low-energy electronics can be

harvested from the surrounding environment.

Energy sources can be RF signals, waste heat,

solar energy, vibrations, and so on. Energy

harvesting is driven by an increased demand

for wireless connection, and the desire to avoid

battery solutions. Examples of energy harvesting

devices are piezo elements transforming pressure

variations in shoes into electricity usable for

wearable devices, or thermal elements powering

implantable medical devices with electricity.

ENERGY HARVESTING

Integrated circuits will increasingly be

embedded into micro electro mechanical

systems offering sensing and processing

capability at the point of data collection. Future

chips containing hundreds of sensors will spur

a wave of automation across industries, and a

revolution within personal monitoring. Some

simple analytical tasks, such as measurement of

blood glucose levels, identii cation of food-

borne pathogens, and water quality testing, are

already being done on a microchip.


Open source software and communities are

central to the so-called big data phenomenon.

Key examples of open-source software are

Linux and Hadoop. The Android operating

system for smartphones, for instance, is built

on top of the Linux kernel. Hadoop is a fast-

developing eco-system of free software tools

for handling and analysing large datasets

and data streams based on large clusters of

commodity (cheap) hardware.

OPEN SOURCE SOFTWARE AND COMMUNITY

Cloud computing devices are connected via the

Internet to servers where the data is hosted and

the actual computation is done. Cloud solutions

offer device and location independence,

scalability on demand, low upfront investments,

and low maintenance cost. Examples of cloud

computing concepts are Software as a Service

(Google Gmail, DropBox), Infrastructure as a

Service (Amazon Web Services, Open Stack) and

Platform as a Service (Thingworx, IBM Blue Mix,

Google App Engine, GE Predix).

CLOUD COMPUTING

Semantic technology uses ontologies to

encode meanings separately from data and

content iles, and separately from application

code. Ontologies are explicit formal

speciications of the terms in a domain and

relationships among them. In this way it enables

the computer to understand the meaning

and context behind words, sentences and

ultimately data. It is expected that by 2025 most

search engines will rely heavily on semantic

technologies for human-computer interaction.

COGNITIVE TECHNOLOGIES

In recent years, the sophistication of automated

systems has increased immensely, driven by

advances in sensors, software and computing

hardware. The ongoing transition from

automated to autonomous systems will result

in increasingly complex systems over the next

decade. Where an automated system tends

to be specialized in one task, an autonomous

system is a situation-aware, self-governing

system capable of completing loosely deined

goals using complex reasoning.

AUTONOMOUS SYSTEMS

Human cognitive ability and perception is

generally too limited to extract useful information

from large amounts of data. The task is far

better performed by sophisticated computer

programs that ind patterns in data, predict future

dynamics, or extract valuable information from

unstructured textual data sets. Machine learning

is still considered to be in its infancy, but the

potential of cognitive technologies are already

clear. An example of an early development is

Watson, IBM’s cognitive computing platform.

MACHINE LEARNING

Software companies are gaining ascendance

in many traditional industry sectors.

Digitalization, digitization and eCommerce

are enabling software companies to penetrate

markets across industries, often with disruptive

network-based business models. The world's

largest bookseller, largest video service, most

dominant music companies, fastest growing

telecom company, best new ilm production

company and fastest-growing recruiting

company are all software-based companies.

SOFTWARE REVOLUTION


SMARTER CITIES

The world over, urban populations are growing and rural

populations declining. This trend is deepening and by 2030,

6 out of every 10 people will be living in cities – producing an

ever greater share of the planet’s economic output. It stands

to reason therefore that cities will play the pivotal role in

decisions and actions relating to resource consumption and

carbon emissions and in the achievement or otherwise of

most of the UNDP Sustainable Development Goals. However,

in order to maximize their potential as positive agents of

change, cities need to:

• Become digitally smart – effectively deploy information

and communication technologies to execute governance,

stimulate citizen action, and share learnings across

institutions and among cities;

• Become physically smart – transform infrastructure and

processes for lows of energy, materials, services and

inancing to catalyse sustainable development, resilience,

and a higher quality of life; and

• Become economically smart – establish local ecosystems

through which citizens and businesses can share assets

and resources, and collaborate to meet speciic goals.

The modes of ‘smartness’ apply pervasively: extending from

municipal services, transport, energy and healthcare, to the

choices that citizens make as consumers, to the physical

space (for example, resource-eficient buildings). Digital

technologies and innovative partnership models allow cities

to engage more actively with stakeholders in the execution

of urban planning and management, and respond more

rapidly to the social and economic needs of society.

Cities tend to be benchmarked on various criteria cutting

across three dimensions: livability (quality of life, urban

mobility); workability (income equality, working environment

and economic productivity); and sustainability (e.g.,

resource and energy eficiency, pollution and environmental

protection). Smart cities excel in how they improve on

all three dimensions through policy and governance,

integration of energy, transport and communication

networks, and participatory action and engagement.



The need to improve the efi ciency and sustainability

of l ows of water, energy, food, materials and people

through urban conglomerations is perhaps the

key driver for cities to become smarter – digitally,

physically and economically.

DIGITALIZATION

Digital technologies offer opportunities to operate

better the ever-more densely woven web of mechanical

and electrical systems in cities, including smart building

applications, transportation systems, power grids, and

water supply and waste removal networks. Optimizing the

operation of city functions will require a digital sense-

process-respond system consisting of the following

technology elements:

• Wired and wireless communication channels for

transmitting and receiving signals;

• Computers, mobile technology and microchips

providing ubiquitous processing capability;

• Sensors and monitoring devices connecting the

digital and physical world; and

• Software infrastructure enabling remote operation of

geographically distributed systems.

CLIMATE CHANGE

Cities account for roughly 70% of global GHG

emissions, while about 360 million urban residents

live in coastal areas no higher than 10m above sea

level. Cities are therefore a focal point for climate

change mitigation and adaptation efforts.

The city government of Oslo, Norway, has pledged

to reduce emissions by 50% by 2020 relative to

emissions in 1990 – a target that, they say, “… can

only be accomplished through close collaboration

between citizens, businesses, organizations, the

national and city governments.”


Creating resource efi cient, low carbon, well-functioning

and digitally operable cities requires policies and

regulations tailored to mobilize citizen action and

stimulate investment in transformative technology and

solutions.

DRIVERS FOR BUILDING CITY INTELLIGENCE


CITY RESILIENCECity resilience – the provision of a safe, secure, and reliable

environment for both businesses and citizens – is a central

objective for city governments, and key to attract new

businesses. This objective is frequently being put under

scrutiny by extreme weather events and increasing urban

agglomeration.

Infrastructures are also becoming more complex and more

interconnected, so that disruptions of one infrastructure,

like power lines, may lead to cascading effects and bring

down other critical infrastructures like water, transport,

food and waste.

The creation of city resilience requires smart governance

through adoption of a systems perspective – an

understanding interdependencies between digital and

physical infrastructures and the cities’ ecological, social

and governance systems.

URBAN MOBILITYUrban mobility programmes focus on technology that

can help to broaden consumer choices and reduce travel

time, congestion and pollution. This often requires re-

directing city spending from increasing road and highway

capacity towards alternative mobility models and services.

Many cities are paving the way for this transformation

by digitalizing their public-transit systems and allowing

citizens to use mobile apps to book and pay for any trip

by any mode of public transport in one click. Other apps

deploy real-time data to guide drivers to available parking

spots or provide on-demand point-to-point bus services

(variable start and end-points) optimizing pickups, drop-

offs, and routing based on demand.

This wave of e-mobility apps is also spurring an emerging

collaborative mobility economy. Some apps connect car

drivers with potential passengers, or allow people to

borrow a car from another city resident. Collaborative

arrangements are also occurring in the business

segment. E-mobility service providers are partnering with

technology providers to power their businesses, and

manufacturers are interacting with, for instance, insurance

irms to develop new products for autonomous vehicles.


SINGAPORESingapore is reaching beyond the ambition of becoming

a smart city; it intends to become a ‘Smart Nation’. Its

government is keenly aware of the need for anticipation of

and taking early action on the megatrends that will impact

Singapore, and the world. The two most important trends

for Singapore are those of an ageing population, and an

urban density of nearly 8,000 people per square kilometer

– compared with 350-400 in countries like Japan and The

Netherlands.

Singapore is pulling together its universities and medical

facilities, research and development (R&D) investments, a

fast-growing community of tech start-ups and investment

capital in a remarkable collaborative effort. The government

is powering these innovation efforts by putting in place

standards to support innovation, establishing an island-wide

high speed 1Gbps broadband access and wireless broadband

infrastructure, making available some 11,000 governmental

data sets, and hosting a ‘living lab’ to test new ideas and

solutions for a smart energy infrastructure, using sensor

networks and big data and analytics technologies.

Examples of innovation initiatives include the trialing of a tele-

health rehabilitation system enabling home therapy sessions

and opening of a road network for autonomous vehicle trials.

The government’s Smart Energy Community test-bed is part

of the Eco-Campus programme based on experiences of the

‘PowerMatching City’ in the Netherlands. It will demonstrate

customers’ use and business cases to enhance energy eficiency,

maximise renewable energy integration, and develop new

electricity market policies for Singapore’s future energy system.

AMSTERDAMThe Amsterdam metropolitan area has an innovative

platform called “Amsterdam Smart City” that aims to reduce

trafic, save energy and improve public safety. It challenges

businesses, residents, the municipality and knowledge

institutions to suggest and apply innovative ideas and

solutions for urban issues. Since 2009, Amsterdam Smart

City has attracted in excess of 100 partners who are actively

involved in more than 92 innovative projects. These projects

run on an interconnected platform through wireless devices

to enhance the city’s real-time decision making abilities.

The Amsterdam Metropolitan Institute has been established

to innovate on topics like water, food and energy. The

institute brings together the Universities of Delft (NL),

Wageningen (NL) and Berkeley (USA) to work with industry

and the municipality of Amsterdam. One of its pilot projects

uses gaming to engage youths to save energy by raising

awareness and changing behaviour. Another recent initiative

is the 3D Print Canal House, a dramatic demonstrator project

in which an international team of partners has joined forces

with local scientists, designers, the construction industry and

other members of the community to 3D print a canal house

at an expo-site in the very heart of Amsterdam.

TE

CH

NO

LO

GY

OU

TL

OO

K

Shipping 40

Energy 54

Life Sciences 68

Digitalization of shipping 44

Energy eficiency and fuel diversiication 46

Safety enhancement 48

Novel design and manufacturing 50

Vision 52

SH

IPP

ING

42 SHIPPING Technology Outlook 2025

Shipping is the most energy efi cient mode of transport, but

there is still signii cant room for improvement regarding energy

efi ciency and associated emissions. The industry also has a

safety challenge with casualty rates far exceeding those of

comparable land-based industries. The impetus for addressing

these challenges has largely come from regulations and

competitive pressure, but public demand for more transparency

and sustainability has also become important. There is

also a view that the industry should more readily embrace

technologies implemented in other industries in order to

improve shipping’s environmental footprint, performance, and

safety record.

There is little doubt therefore that i nancial, regulatory, and

societal pressures will continue to be exerted to encourage

shipping to lower its environmental impact. This will result in

growing numbers of vessels being designed to offer superior

energy efi ciency through measures such as improved

hydrodynamics, use of lightweight materials, and advanced

hybrid power generation systems, with energy storage for

optimization of performance and operations. New, increasingly

effective solutions to reduce water and air pollution will

become available. Diversii cation of the fuel mix should also

be expected, with an increasing share of distillate fuels as

well as scrubbers for compliance with upcoming low-sulphur

requirements. Alternative fuels have the potential to play a

more important role, with LNG introduced in large ocean-going

vessels, and grid electricity becoming standard for cold ironing

in ports.

Digitalization of information l ows will spur automation

of existing processes and functions and positively impact

safety and environmental performance. Ships are becoming

sophisticated sensor hubs and data generators, and

advances in satellite communications are improving ship

connectivity, allowing for a massive increase in the volumes

PREDICTION OF DEVELOPMENTS TOWARD 2025

Fuel prices Relatively low oil demand and abundant supply keeps conventional fuel prices low.

Fuel mix Due to low oil prices, minimal adoption of alternative fuels. Weak LNG growth due to emissions standards.

Degree of digitalization

Slow penetration of digital technologies. Monitoring still relies upon manual reports from the crew.

Software penetration and autonomy

Limited adoption of software-controlled equipment and automation.

Adoption of energy effi ciency measures

Only measures for complying with energy efi ciency design index (EEDI) standards adopted.

Hybrid and fully electric powertrains

Uptake in special ship types in developed economies only.

ASSUMING WEAK GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH AND TRADE DEMAND

Technology Outlook 2025 SHIPPING 43

of data transferred at ever-lower cost. Onshore, new cloud

technologies, such as big data platforms and digital twin

technologies, will have a dramatic effect on how the industry

manages information, and how vessels and their components

are designed, built, and tested – all of which will see new digital

business models emerging. Advanced software and simulation

capabilities will result in more complex systems being controlled

by software, while near real-time evaluation possibilities will be

available, accompanied by suggestions for corrective actions

by the crew and providing supply chain management decision

support. Increased automation and availability of high-reliability,

software-controlled, cyber-physical systems will allow for

advances in automation and remotely controlled operations.

Additive manufacturing, or 3D printing, is another potential

game changer in shipping. Not only can additive manufacturing

result in new designs for more efi cient machinery components,

it could also allow spare parts to be produced locally in various

ports around the world. This would shorten the time for repairs

and contribute to more efi cient ship operations.

Shipping is a global industry, and thus broadly follows trends

and forces of the global economy. However, technology uptake

does and will vary in different geographies and trade segments.

In addition, the digital era brings ‘through-cycle’ change in and

of itself – overturning business models and modes of operation.

PREDICTION OF DEVELOPMENTS TOWARD 2025

Fuel prices Strong transport demand increases pressure on oil prices, but price volatility remains.

Fuel mix Diversii cation of fuel mix. Strong LNG growth, considerable interest in methanol, biofuels, and electricity.

Degree of digitalization

Strong uptake of offshore-onshore digital solutions for sensor-based monitoring and data analytics for optimization of operations.

Software penetration and autonomy

Introduction of software-based control systems for supporting crew in complex operations. First steps towards autonomous operations.

Adoption of energy effi ciency measures

Aggressive introduction of energy efi ciency measures for improving competitiveness.

Hybrid and fully electric powertrains

Strong growth in battery-based solutions for improving energy efi ciency and reducing emissions.

ASSUMING STRONG GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH

AND TRADE DEMAND


DIGITALIZATION

OF SHIPPING

MARITIME CONNECTIVITY

In the next decade, a variety of new

communications technologies will be deployed:

cellular networks in coastal areas; VDES (new

data service on the VHF band); Wi-Fi in ports,

and, most importantly, satellite communications,

improving coverage and bandwidth. Currently,

the maritime industry contributes to the growth

in deployment of VSAT (Very Small Aperture

Terminals) equipment on board ships.

According to COMSYS, the number of active

maritime VSAT installations quadrupled

from 2008 (6,001) to 2014 (21,922), and it is

predicted that the number will exceed 40,000

by 2018. By 2020, most classed vessels will be

broadband capable. Also, the VSAT network

capacity is increasing owing to the introduction

of new high throughput satellite (HTS) systems,

with two to ten times higher throughput than

classical satellites. Euroconsult has estimated

that the overall VSAT network capacity over

maritime regions will increase from 2.4 Gbps

in 2011 to 12 Gbps in 2016, corresponding

to a 38% annual growth. Extrapolating from

this growth would result in 217 Gbps in 2025,

implying a massive increase in data transfer

rates and decreased cost per bit for the

connected vessels. According to Cooper’s Law

and Edholm’s Law of Bandwidth, it is typical for

wireless communication technologies to exhibit

exponential growth.

The improved maritime connectivity described

above will have a dramatic effect on how the

industry manages information. Most ships,

systems, and components will be linked to the

Internet, making them accessible from almost

any location. At the same time, combining

data streams from multiple sources will enable

the industry to make informed decisions

faster, leading to more eficient operations

and responsive organizations. This will boost

performance management (including leet

utilization, routing, trim, fuel consumption,

emission management) and asset integrity

management, building on remote condition

monitoring as well as allowing for an increased

level of automation. This may, in turn, facilitate

remote controlled and autonomous ship

operations. This will also have a positive impact

on safety at sea. In fact, new digital solutions

will provide better control over the status

of degradable systems, increase situational

awareness and human reliability, and provide

support in the deinition of corrective actions

and the reduction of operational risk.

Improvements in maritime connectivity will also

bring many beneits to the transport sector as

a whole. For example, supply chains can be

more eficiently organized around adaptable

operations that leverage timely information on

cargo, routes, and the operation and condition

of assets. This will improve eficiency in many

ways, including reducing lead times and fuel

consumption by optimizing arrival times, and

also allowing a better organization of operations

and workforces on land for handling cargo

and carrying out possible maintenance and/or

inspection activities.

Apart from enhancing safety and eficiency,

ship connectivity will also answer the need for

more transparent operations and help build

trust and collaboration between various industry

stakeholders based on the collection and

analysis of shared information. Ship connectivity

will provide a unique opportunity for maritime

authorities to monitor compliance with

existing regulations to improve safety, achieve

environmental targets, and boost competition in

the industry.

Projected maritime VSAT network capacity

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

Gbps (

Gig

abit

s p

er

second)

0

50

100

150

200

250

Telenor’s HTS “Thor VII” inspected in factory. Source: Telenor Satellite Broadcasting


MARINE CYBER-PHYSICAL SYSTEMS

A cyber-physical system comprises physical

components that can be monitored, controlled,

and optimized by smart sensors, advanced

software and actuators. Modern ships are

becoming highly automated and are increasingly

dependent on software-based control systems.

These extend both to normal operation functions

such as Dynamic Positioning station keeping

as well as to critical safety-related functions

and emergency control, such as emergency

shutdown and blowout preventers (BOPs).

Machinery systems of ships are increasingly

being controlled by software and i tted with

low-cost, smart sensors that allow monitoring

of condition and performance parameters.

Control systems for ship propulsion systems,

for instance, enable seamless integration

of electrical components and conventional

mechanical systems in order to optimize

efi ciency without compromising safety. Similarly,

marine navigation systems will increasingly

rely on advanced software and sensors to

alert the navigator to possible hazards ahead,

and propose appropriate courses of action to

maintain a safe route. Considering the sheer

ubiquity of control systems on board, it will be

possible to refer to the ship itself as a cyber-

physical system.

The fact that these systems are highly

interconnected contributes to an increase in

the overall complexity. As both normal and

emergency operations depend largely on

functional and reliable sensors and software,

it is crucial that these are proven to function

correctly – a task that is sometimes challenging

for individual vendors to prove owing to the

interconnectedness of the various systems. As

a consequence, although sensors and software

will play an increasing role in shipping, greater

efforts are needed by system integrators and

third party assurance providers to make sure that

sensors and software are reliable enough for safe

shipping operations. Thus, technologies such

as hardware-in-the-loop testing are needed to

check software before it is deployed. Similarly,

software change management will also need

to be addressed as a main critical factor for the

reliability of such systems in operations.

THE DIGITAL TWIN

A digital twin is a digital copy of a real ship,

including its systems, that synthesizes the

information available about the ship in the digital

world. A digital twin allows any aspect of an

asset to be explored through a digital interface,

including layout, design specii cations, simulation

models, data analytics, and so on. A digital twin of

a ship therefore has many applications throughout

its lifecycle.

During design, the digital twin is used as a virtual

test bench to improve performance of a system

as well as an information management system

supporting the workl ow, reducing development

costs and time. It also i nds application in third

party verii cation, facilitating a more automatic

and systematic approach to safety assurance.

With the advance of digital technologies in the

next decade, ship systems and related digital

twins will be designed with the support of cloud-

based information management and multi-model

simulation platforms. These will allow different

stakeholders to populate the digital twin of an

asset with modules and evaluate in advance how

the system will operate as a whole.

In operations, the digital twin offers several

possibilities for evaluating performance and

criticalities in near real-time and suggesting

corrective actions, when coupled with

operational data from (sensor-instrumented)

equipment. Over time, increasingly detailed

virtual models will be continuously populated

with information collected on board, accelerating

the development of industrial big data and smart

analytics platforms.

Virtual ship platforms will lead to several new

ways of operating and maintaining ships and

l eets, and, indeed, the digital channel may come

to represent the preferred route for stakeholders

in the shipping industry. However, this new era

is in its infancy and smart ways of organizing and

making accessible the vast amount of information

need to be explored. New technologies that

leverage the use of ontology-based reasoning,

functional modelling, multi-physics simulation,

machine learning, and big data are therefore

being explored in the industry and by academia;

by 2025, the results of these investigations

should provide the basis for new standards and

best practices for the management of the new

digital-industrial age of shipping.

Dynamic Positioning

Speed Tower Train

Vessel Management SystemPropulsion Management System


ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND

FUEL DIVERSIFICATION

ENERGY EFFICIENCY MEASURES

Overall ship design determines the size and

dimensions of the vessel, the hull coniguration,

material selection, and, ultimately, the ship

performance characteristics under loaded and

ballast conditions. These, in turn, impact upon

fuel use and associated CO2 emissions. By

2025, more ships will be designed to operate

with less ballast, and with lightweight materials

increasingly used as a replacement for steel in

non-structural elements. This offers substantial

eficiency gains by reducing the area of the

hull under water and consequently reducing

resistance. Furthermore, there will be greater use

of technologies such as air lubrication to reduce

frictional resistance of the hull by introducing

a thin layer of air between the hull and water,

thereby lubricating the hull-water contact area.

Hardened low-resistance hull coatings will also

be widely applied to reduce frictional resistance

and fouling.

Advanced control systems for operation of ship

machinery propulsion systems will improve

management of the energy low. For instance,

electronically controlled fuel injection systems

enable more responsive fuel injection, better

combustion, and optimization of performance

at various engine loads. Other ship power

systems that will be increasingly automated and

optimized include power generators, variable

speed pumps, transformers, and waste heat

recovery solutions. The overall goal is to provide

an energy management approach that optimally

matches demand and production, taking into

account voyage plans, hotel needs, energy

storage (i.e., batteries), supplementary power

generation technologies, such as solar panels,

and supplementary propulsion systems, like sails

and kites.

HYBRID POWER GENERATION SYSTEMS

Recent developments in ship electriication

hold signiicant promise for improved energy

management and fuel eficiency. Battery-

powered propulsion systems are already being

engineered for smaller ships, while the current

focus of engine manufacturers is on hybrid

electric solutions for larger vessels.

Signiicant growth in hybrid electric ships should

be expected after 2020 in ship segments like

harbour tugs, offshore service vessels, and

ferries. By 2025, a large share of new commercial

ships will probably include some degree of

hybridization. For large, deep-sea vessels, for

instance, hybrid architecture may be utilized to

power auxiliary systems, and for manoeuvring

and port operations. Shifting from AC to DC

grids on board will also allow engines to operate

at variable speeds such that the engine can

operate more eficiently at low loads. Additional

beneits of hybrid-electric ships include power

redundancy, noise and vibration reduction, and

decreased emissions (NOX, SOX and particulate

matter) in ports and populated coastal areas.

The energy density of batteries is a limiting factor

that has an impact on the size of batteries and

the cruising range of electric ships. New battery

chemistries may offer energy density that is one

order of magnitude higher than current levels.

With this level of energy density becoming

commercially available and affordable, it should

be expected that the share of hybrid propulsion

systems and electric ships will rise rapidly and

gradually become comparable to conventional

vessels. However, this is not expected to happen

before 2025.

Energy flow for a typical ocean going vessel

Exhaust gases

Hull friction/propulsion

Energy input (fuel)

Heat

Propeller

Auxiliaries

Wave and wind

Estimated energy saving from a hybrid power generation system in calm weather

Calm weatherConventional

Calm weatherHybrid

0

20

40

60

80

100

Fuel NO CHx 4

Estimated energy saving from a hybrid power generation system in bad weather

Bad weatherConventional

Bad weather Hybrid

Fuel0

20

40

60

80

100

CH4

NOx


ALTERNATIVE FUELS

Alternative fuels can be a promising solution for

shipping. As they are essentially free of sulphur

they offer compliance with environmental

regulations, as well as the potential for a smaller

carbon footprint. One key factor that will

affect uptake is the price of these fuels. Other

questions that need to be addressed are related

to local and global availability, production

techniques, and safety and reliability concerns.

The alternative fuel options available today

or in the foreseeable future include liqueied

natural gas (LNG), liqueied petroleum gas

(LPG), methanol, ethanol, biodiesel, dimethyl

ether (DME), biogas, synthetic fuels, grid

electricity, nuclear propulsion, and hydrogen.

New fuels often require new on board systems

and machinery, and shifting from one fuel

(heavy fuel oil (HFO), marine diesel oil (MDO))

to another (e.g., LNG) will take time, and

may lead to unforeseen technical issues and

delays for pioneers. Thus, a fuel that can be

introduced without signiicant modiications

to the machinery and storage facilities has the

advantages of simplicity and low capital costs.

LNG was already utilized as a fuel by LNG

carriers in the 1960s to take advantage of the

fuel available on board in the form of boil-off

gas. The irst LNG-powered vessel was built in

2000, and at present there are about 75 LNG-

powered ships in operation, excluding LNG

carriers, and another 80 under construction.

In addition, 40 ships have been designed to

be ready for LNG retroit. The growth in LNG-

powered ships is expected to accelerate towards

2025. LNG is currently a particularly attractive

fuel option for vessels operating in North

American waters that have to comply with the

Tier III NOX emission standards. The adoption

of a 0.5% sulphur limit in European waters in

2020, in addition to the current ECA, could spur

accelerated growth of the LNG-fuelled shipping

leet. A number of other sulphur-free fuels can

also be used as a substitute for oil in dual-fuel

engines. Amongst them, biodiesel, LPG, and

methanol are of particular interest because they

also offer signiicant reductions in emissions of

NOX and particulate matter (PM).

Fuel availability and pricing will be decisive

factors for widespread adoption of any

alternative fuels in shipping. The development of

bunkering infrastructure is a prerequisite to allow

large, ocean-going ships to use alternative fuels.

Other factors, such as the high cost of building

or retroitting dual fuel ships, the size of fuel

tanks, and concerns about safety, may limit the

uptake of such fuels.

A controversial option for powering large

vessels is nuclear power. Its main advantages are

virtually zero CO2 emissions and a propulsion

system suitable for ships that need to be

self-supporting for long periods. However,

due to signiicant controversy around nuclear

power, and public concerns related to potential

consequences from accidents, it seems unlikely

that nuclear propulsion will be widely adopted

in shipping within the next 10-20 years. The

outlook may change if societal acceptance of

nuclear power increases and there is stronger

policy push to reduce gaseous emissions from

shipping.

Comparison of well-to-propeller greenhouse gas emissions for alternative fuels

0

20

40

60

80

100

Me

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SAFETY

ENHANCEMENT

REMOTE OPERATIONS AND AUTONOMY

As sensor technologies and connectivity become

more robust, remotely operated vessels, or even

unmanned vessels, could become a reality. The

use of sophisticated robotics and automation

are now commonplace for many land-based

industries, particularly manufacturing. In the

past decade, we have seen the deployment of a

number of unmanned autonomous and remotely

operated vehicles, including unmanned aerial

vehicles (UAVs), remotely operated underwater

vehicles (ROVs), e.g., in the offshore sector

servicing subsea installations, and signiicant

steps towards development of driverless trucks

and autonomous cars.

For shipping, remote operations require

automation and high reliability of the engine and

other integrated systems. In addition, advanced

navigation systems and sophisticated algorithms

to maintain a vessel’s course in changing sea and

weather conditions, avoid collisions, and operate

the ship eficiently, within speciied safety

parameters are prerequisites. Such systems rely

on robust and secure communication via satellite

and land-based systems. Onboard ship control

and decision management systems can be

adjusted to allow different levels of autonomy,

but with further advances in these enabling

technologies, we can imagine a completely

autonomous ship that reports to shore-based

operators only when human input is needed, or

if emergency situations arise.

Shipping will beneit from developments in the

offshore, aviation, aerospace, and automotive

industries, which have been the drivers for

advances in automation and remote operations.

It is likely that shipping will irst apply these

technologies to instrumented machinery, and

then gradually to vessel navigation. These

solutions will increasingly rely on sensor

technologies and computers to manage

onboard systems from remote locations. As

more onboard systems become automated, the

crew will be reduced, and more decisions will be

made from shore-based control centres.

These control centres will be responsible for

operating vessels in congested sea-lanes,

or in proximity to ports and terminals, and

in emergency situations. To manage these

tasks, control centres will be equipped with

system simulators designed to select optimal

routing procedures and interfaces with land-

based supply chain networks. Onshore control

centres will also be responsible for the asset

integrity management of the ship and the

possible downtime related to the failure of

onboard equipment. As with many emerging

technologies, the ability of the system to manage

the interaction between man and machine

will be critical. Such systems should provide

accurate representations of risk and allow

humans to take full control of vessels from a

remote location when necessary.

The irst conceptual prototypes of fully

autonomous ships are here already, and many

ship types will be delivered with remote/

autonomous operation capabilities towards

2025. Ports will also have automated systems

for loading and unloading of cargo. However,

although fully automated ships are expected to

enter the market by 2025, regulatory barriers

will hinder operation of autonomous ships in

international waters, limiting its application to

country waters and short sea shipping in the

near future.

Expected readiness of autonomy enabling technologies in shipping

Remote monitoring of propulsion systems

Remote control of navigational systems

Sensor and connectivity based navigational assistance

Autonomous ships – Control centers

Remote controlof propulsionsystems

2015

Tech

no

log

y d

eve

lop

me

nt

sta

te

Research and development stage

Pilot and demonstration stage

Operationaldeployment

2017 2019 2021 2023 2025


REAL-TIME ANALYTICS FOR ASSET AND OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT

Reliability, Availability, Maintainability, Safety

(RAMS) and performability techniques are used

in many engineering ields to design and operate

industrial assets to meet safety standards and

to optimize overall system performance. While

these techniques have proven value in system

design, their application in operations has been

lacking, although they offer a valuable approach

for evaluating and comparing different scenarios

from a risk-based perspective. However, in the

next decade a new set of RAMS techniques that

leverage the use of (near) real-time monitoring of

operational parameters will increasingly be used

by the shipping industry.

The most immediate expected beneits of these

types of real-time analytics in supporting Asset

and Operation Management will be to enable

owners to reduce the number and frequency

of inspections and repairs, and allow them to

anticipate and replace damaged and worn parts

with minimal resources and downtime. Similarly,

these systems can map a ship’s condition status

in relation to safety risk levels, allowing for

dynamic adjustment of safety barriers in order to

maintain minimum safety levels. With real-time

access to a vessel’s current and future status,

maintenance and operational personnel will have

more accurate information on system capabilities,

allowing for timely action to increase reliability,

availability, safety, and eficiency.

In order to achieve the full potential of real-time

analytics, further development of a number of

technologies is necessary. The performance

of real-time analytics is a function of predictive

data that can indicate a developing failure.

Therefore, smart sensor networks will be critical,

as their ability to work together offers a detailed

and accurate picture of various systems. In turn,

real-time analytics will rely not only on how

sensors are conigured and linked, but also on

the quality of ship-to-shore connectivity. Due

to limited onboard storage and processing

power, data will be analysed on board and/

or sent to shore, where it will be managed by

increasingly sophisticated software tools and

computing power. These tools will provide full-

range analytics and visualization capabilities,

and be seamlessly linked to onboard sensor and

actuation devices via the Internet.

Advances in how organizations run their work

processes following a data-driven approach

will enable a dramatic shift in how the industry

approaches asset management. As an example,

this could involve moving from a scheduled

maintenance approach, a process that is

often driven by supplier recommendations, to

condition-based maintenance, driven by the

actual condition of onboard components and

systems. This shift alone may require a new

type of agreement between service providers

and vessel owners and operators, perhaps

through agreed levels of performance that are

measurable at any time.

Data quality will represent a critical factor for the

successful implementation of real-time analytics.

The adoption of a data-driven philosophy for

asset operations, such as reliability-centred

maintenance, lifecycle asset management, and

system engineering, will therefore become

even more important in the maritime industry.

Furthermore, new standards to verify the

quality of real-time data streams will need to

be developed. Similarly, the ability to trust

data analytics and black box models will also

need to be demonstrated, and new formal

approaches for analytics veriication must be

developed. As more stakeholders will rely on

information retrieved from several sources, it will

be necessary to guarantee consistency across

industry stakeholders’ data lakes and information

models. Last, but not least, for a full industry-wide

implementation, new standard and technological

solutions for data governance and cybersecurity

will be needed.


NOVEL DESIGN AND

MANUFACTURING

ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING

Additive manufacturing, also known as 3D

printing, is a manufacturing method that builds

objects by laying down successive thin layers

of material until the object takes its inal form.

Signiicant advances in 3D printing technology

over the last decade are transforming the way in

which products are designed, prototyped, and

manufactured. It has fewer design restrictions

that constrain conventional manufacturing

processes, and has the potential to shorten

manufacturing time signiicantly. A major aircraft

engine manufacturer claims that 3D printing

has reduced manufacturing time for some

applications by almost a third.

These advances offer possibilities for novel

designs, as well as more lightweight products,

with shorter production times and reduced

costs. The technology is already being used

for rapid prototyping, but it is now gradually

being integrated into existing manufacturing

infrastructure, for example in the automotive

and aircraft-manufacturing industries. This

lexibility is extremely useful when designing

products with custom features, which can

be beneicial when product customization is

important. Additive manufacturing can also

improve responsiveness to market demands

and generally uses only the material necessary

to produce a component, thereby driving down

the amount of waste and overall material use.

Although, oil & gas and maritime industries

constitute only about 5% of the total additive

manufacturing market, it is anticipated that its

reach in these industries will increase rapidly.

The US Navy has started testing the technology

on board ships, to evaluate the potential of

producing spare parts and other equipment as

needed. However, this requires trained personnel

on board, and the printer will be subject to the

motions of the ship, potentially affecting product

quality. A more promising approach would be

to use the technology in the production phase,

for lightweight parts or complex parts that

cannot be manufactured easily with conventional

techniques. This could lead to improvements

in energy eficiency of the ships. Another

application could be producing spare parts

locally in ports around the world, as required,

thereby reducing delivery times and costs.

While additive manufacturing presents many

future possibilities in innovative manufacturing,

there are some risks that should be considered.

Qualiication and certiication may present

signiicant challenges because of the potential

for variability in speciied properties. The

traditional qualiication methods of repeated

testing of an end product produced from a

centralized facility will not be suficient. The

distributed nature of additive manufacturing

means that the product variability determined

for one location may be entirely different

for another location owing to software and

hardware differences, or other factors. An

additional or ‘second order’ downside of

additive manufacturing for shipping is that the

distributed production of manufactured goods

may reduce the overall demand for shipping of

goods – a trend that will warrant careful analysis

as additive manufacturing reaches scale.

Worldwide 3D Printing Industry Forecast

0

5

Software

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

10

15

20

Services

Materials

Ma

rke

t va

lue

(b

illio

ns

US

D)

Equipment

Source: Smarttechmarkets Publishing (2014)


NEW SHIP TYPES

Shipping is a diversiied and continuously

evolving industry, serving an ever-greater

variety of customers and needs. These range

from cruise ship passengers to offshore

infrastructure support, and from transportation

of commodities in bulk to transportation of

high-value products. A wide variety of ships is

available, designed to accommodate the needs

of each segment, and the mix and size of vessels

changes constantly in response to technological

advances and economic developments. Typical

examples are the decline of reefers, due to the

proliferation of refrigerated containers, and the

rise of LNG carriers due to the increased need

for transportation of natural gas.

It is very likely that the recent trend towards

larger container vessels will continue over the

next ten years. Larger ships offer substantially

improved transport eficiency over smaller

ones, and the on-going consolidation in the

container segment will enhance this trend.

Other developments, such as the Trans-Paciic

Partnership (TPP) trade agreement, the widening

of the Panama and Suez Canals, and the

expansion of several ports for handling larger

vessels all signal even larger ships in the next

decade.

Future ship types will include vessels for

offshore wind farm development, to serve the

needs of a rapidly growing industry. These

vessels will cover all activities from installation

to maintenance and support. With wind farm

developments further from the coast, vessels

designed for safe and comfortable transfer of

technicians from the shore to turbines will be in

high demand.

In an effort to reduce road congestion, local

pollution, and trafic accidents, many countries

are considering moving more cargo from

the road to short sea shipping. New vessels,

speciically designed for such operations, have

the potential to contribute substantially to

improving eficiency and reducing costs. These

vessels can be tailor-designed for speciic

geographical areas and trade volumes, in order

to optimize their size and eficiency. Due to the

nature of the trade, advanced solutions such as

electriication can be adopted.

VISION: SHIPPING

KNUT ØRBECK-NILSSEN

CEO, MARITIME

In my vision of the future for shipping I see an industry that

is still at the heart of global trade, bringing people together,

and keeping the world’s economy vital and growing. But the

industry itself, the vessels, the infrastructure, and the systems

that connect them could change substantially.

The biggest change will be the way ships are powered. The

world’s modern l eet will rely on a broader range of fuels and

propulsion solutions. On the long haul trades, we could see

a move toward dual-fuel engines, or pure gas fuelled, as well

as other gases like ethane, and newly developed renewable

biofuels becoming a part of the mix.

The use of batteries to complement main engines will also

grow, to smooth power delivery, drive auxiliary systems, and

maximize engine efi ciency. In some sectors, such as ferries

and coastal vessels, the trend could even be toward vessels

powered completely or largely by electricity.

Connectivity between ship and shore will have vastly

improved and will be much more common. The l eet of the

future will be continually communicating with its managers

and perhaps even with a “trafi c control” system that is

continually monitoring vessel positions, manoeuvres and

speeds.

Fleet managers will be able to analyse this data, enabling

them to advise the captain and crew on navigation, weather


patterns, fuel consumption, and port arrival. This will help

to reduce the risks of human error leading to accidents,

increase cost efi ciency, and help to improve environmental

performance.

Some of these data will also be shared. Ports will use the

data to help them plan and optimize loading and unloading.

Classii cation societies will analyse the data to check on

the status of machinery and hull, letting the owners and

operators know when a survey is required based on the

condition of the systems, helping them to reduce downtime

and avoid unnecessary maintenance.

At DNV GL we are excited to be a part of this coming

transformation. We will continue to work with stakeholders

across the maritime world to realize the potential of our

industry and make sure that the outlook for shipping

tomorrow is brighter than today.


Oil & Gas 58

Power 62

Vision 66

EN

ER

GY

56 ENERGY Technology Outlook 2025

WEAK PUSH FROM POLICY AND REGULATIONSTransformation of the energy sector relies

primarily on market-based incentives,

allowing countries to tailor mechanisms to

national needs and circumstances.

Up to one i fth more energy will be consumed by the world in

2025 compared to today. Where that energy is sourced will have

started to differ from today’s energy mix, especially in the power

sector. The transition is mainly being driven by:

• Cost pressures in the oil and gas industry;

• The imperative to reduce anthropogenic CO2 emissions;

• The rapid decline in the cost of electricity generated from

solar and wind; and

• The emergence of a more distributed and consumer-centric

power system.

These factors will drive technology development, and so too will

new policy and regulatory measures that will inl uence energy

source preferences and spur deployment of new solutions.

These forces are likely to result in the following changes in

global energy l ows between 2015 and 2025:

• Strong growth in natural gas production;

• Growth in nuclear power generation;

• More than 50% growth in the use of biomass and waste for

power generation and biofuels;

• The peak and decline of coal production;

• A sharp decline in oil-i red power generation; and

• A booming renewable power generation sector, more than

doubling global capacity.

The pace and strength of these energy l ows are delicately

balanced on the fulcrum of policy and regulation. This is

especially the case for the transition to renewables, and the

associated reductions in annual GHG emissions relative to a

‘business as usual’ trajectory, which is strongly dependent on

policy intervention.

The call for subsidies and other policy mechanisms to secure

domestic energy supply is likely to intensify in the face of

STATE OF ENERGY SECTOR IN 2025

Demand for fossil fuels

Demand for all fossil fuels continues to follow the growth trajectory of the gross world product.

Oil price Lack of concerted action by OPEC drives oil price volatility.

Energy security Energy security is assured through trade agreements at national or regional level.

CO2 pricing No signii cant carbon price implemented across the energy sector.

Uptake of solar PV Global capacity is less than 1 TWp.

Uptake of wind Global capacity is less than 1 TW. Limited growth in offshore wind.

Uptake of CCS Fewer than 10 large-scale projects without associated hydrocarbon production.

Uptake of biofuels 50% growth to 2025.

Deployment of nuclear

20% growth to 2025.

Uptake of EVs Less than 20 million EVs by 2025

Technology Outlook 2025 ENERGY 57

STRONG PUSH FROM POLICY AND REGULATIONSGovernments predominantly use

regulatory measures to force energy

sector transformations, rather than rely on

incentives.

prolonged cost pressures in the oil and gas industry and

oil price volatility. Should oil prices remain low to 2018,

the attractiveness of oil plays in Arctic regions, deep water

environments, and shale oil and heavy oil i elds will remain low

in the absence of new incentives.

A strong growth in offshore wind will require continuation

of subsidies throughout the coming decade. In this period,

offshore wind will continue its learning curve of 14% cost

reduction per doubling of installed capacity, driven by the

increasing size of new wind turbines and wind farms along

with logistic and technological improvements. However, grid

compatibility and management of generation variability will

remain as key challenges for large-scale deployment of wind.

Solar PV will grow faster than any other source of electricity in

the next decade, with its learning curve expected to continue

decreasing by around 24% for every doubling of installed

capacity. On-site (residential and commercial) solar PV has

already reached grid parity in several regions, but still needs

subsidies to cover the inconvenience and cost of switching to

this new energy source. Utility-scale PV will start competing with

traditional sources of peak and baseload power by 2025.

As solar PV reaches or exceeds grid parity, it becomes attractive

for homeowners and companies to invest in on-site solar PV

systems to reduce grid dependence and become electricity

prosumers. However, consumer-centric distributed renewable

power systems will still require grid connection for l exibility

services. Rapid up-scaling and cost reduction of on-site storage

solutions will require a push from regulation or policy to reach

economies of scale. Once (autonomous) microgrids become

reliable, they will likely trigger disruption of the power system,

and the emergence of new business models.

STATE OF ENERGY SECTOR IN 2025

Demand for fossil fuels

Coal demand peaks, oil demand declines, and natural gas demand shows moderate growth.

Oil price Policy mechanisms dampen oil price volatility.

Energy security International energy policy drives transition towards global low carbon energy security.

CO2 pricing Carbon pricing implemented across the energy sector in most developed countries.

Uptake of solar PV Global capacity is close to 3 TWp.

Uptake of wind Global capacity is more than 2 TW. Moderate growth in offshore wind.

Uptake of CCS 20-30 large-scale projects without associated hydrocarbon production.

Uptake of biofuels Lignocellulosic biofuels become cost-competitive with fossil transportation fuels by 2025.

Deployment of nuclear

60% growth to 2025.

Uptake of EVs More than 80 million EVs by 2025


FULLY AUTOMATED DRILLING OPERATIONS

Drilling is a signiicant part of oil companies’

expenditures. Exploration and appraisal

wells are high-risk, high-cost activities, while

production well drilling is typically half of total

ield development CAPEX. In addition to these

concerns comes safety: incidents involving

personnel or the environment during drilling

operations can and do break companies. Fully

automated drilling operations have the potential

to increase the speed and safety of drilling

operations, while simultaneously reducing costs.

Advanced automation technology can

fundamentally change how a well is drilled,

but requires a complete redesign of drilling-

related processes in order to reap the full

beneits of automation. To enable continuous

drilling operations, where a well is constructed

without any interruptions to the process, several

technologies need to be in place, including

automated drill pipe handling, managed

pressure drilling, single trip drilling, and

monitoring and diagnostics.

Automated drill pipe handling: Signiicantly

reduces the risks to personnel by removing the

need for people on the drill loor. Automated

solutions are able to cater for using longer

pipe sections, reducing the number of

connections, and by that decreasing the time

needed, especially for tripping and completion

operations.

Managed pressure drilling (MPD): A closed,

pressurized system that continuously and

automatically controls the bottomhole pressure

in the well. Enhanced pressure control increases

safety and reduces downtime during complex

drilling operations through improved detection

of, and response to, anomalies. In addition, MPD

enables drilling of wells with narrow pressure

gradient windows. Continuous circulation of

drilling mud ensures the correct pressure in

the well during all phases of the operation and

reduces the chance of drillpipe jamming.

Single trip drilling / drilling while completing:

Depends on automation and MPD, and further

accelerates the drilling and completion of a well.

Removing the requirement to re-enter the well

multiple times also improves safety, especially in

challenging areas.

Drilling process monitoring and diagnostics:

Linking topside and downhole measurements

with analyses feeding directly into the

automated control is the next step following

the array of current measure-while-drilling

capabilities. Automated drilling systems can

utilize a larger number of data points to make

correct decisions, especially when needing

to adapt to dynamic events, and present

relevant data to the operators in charge without

overwhelming them in critical situations.

Automated drilling technology is expected

to reduce drilling time and cost by 30-50%

compared with a conventional rig. This will

make more wells economically feasible,

enabling drilling of smaller targets and

adding a higher number of inill production

wells. The implications of automation will be

felt throughout the performance of drilling

operations, as automated rigs will change the

roles of the different parties involved: rig owner,

service companies, and the operator.

OIL & GAS

Image: © Huisman Equipment B.V.

Image: Courtesy Statoil


SIMPLER AND SMARTER COMPLETIONS

In order to be able to drain a reservoir eficiently,

avoiding excessive water or gas production, it

may be necessary to close individual production

zones in wells as they experience gas or water

breakthrough. Completing a well is a time

consuming and costly operation that requires a

rig, and altering the completion once in place

has traditionally been both expensive and

cumbersome.

Smart completions include monitoring and

precise control of production zones to improve

recovery. The systems involve either autonomous

or remote-controlled choking back of high gas

and water producing zones. Low-cost smart

completions, which can be easily reconigured

without a rig, have the potential to improve

production from complex reservoirs signiicantly,

including from thin oil pay zones. These

completions can allow more optimal locations

of drainage points for a high recovery factor.

Smart completions with multiple drainage points

per well, which can be easily opened or closed,

can fundamentally improve well performance

through improved reservoir management

at reduced cost. Moreover, by being able to

limit the volumes of associated gas or water

production, the residual processing capacity is

available for other wells.

SMARTER SUBSEA TIE-INS

The development of multiphase low

capabilities has enabled subsea production by

simple, effective, and safe wellstream transport

from the wellhead to the processing facility.

Despite being enabled by advanced low

modelling, subsea systems have traditionally

been quite simple from a control and

monitoring perspective. This simplicity has

allowed subsea systems to deliver reliable

production from 5,000 wells around the globe.

Subsea system integrity and main low

parameters are monitored from remote

control rooms 24/7. In 2025, we expect subsea

solutions to rely actively on monitoring and

data analytics to achieve the necessary low

conditions for stable production. Better

prediction of low-related problems leads to

quicker action to assure continuous low, which

has a signiicant impact on ield economy

through reduced downtime. More importantly,

improved control over the low and process

conditions allows operation closer to the

physical limits for a stable multiphase low.

This is especially relevant for heavier or waxy

oil, gas with high liquid content, and large

sand production. This is expected to enable

simpliications in ield development solutions,

e.g., through longer tie-ins and simpler

designs.

The increased level of monitoring will

also cover the integrity of the system and

the surrounding environment, including

improved leak detection. Data gathered from

subsea systems will also improve inspection,

maintenance, and repair strategies. In sum, this

will help designers and operators to safeguard

a stable uninterrupted low, while boosting

conidence in the integrity of the system.


AUTONOMOUS INSPECTION OF PIPELINES

Monitoring of onshore and offshore pipelines

is expected to increase owing to the growing

demand for energy in the face of challenges

such as criminal activities (tapping and

stealing of oil), terrorist attacks, and climate

change effects (e.g., landslides).

Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs)

performing regular pipeline inspection will

provide a more eficient approach than using

remote operated underwater vehicles (ROV).

AUVs will be equipped with sonars, cameras,

and sensors to sniff for a leakage of methane

or oil.

For onshore pipelines, unmanned aerial

vehicles (UAVs) will be used, but presently

their use is limited due to the lack of

regulations and procedures for operation in

the civil airspace. One scenario is to use high-

altitude long endurance UAVs that operate

above the commercial air-trafic heights

(> 17 km), equipped with highly sophisticated

sensor systems including radar, optical, and

infrared imagers. Today’s UAVs are limited

by range and endurance, but solar- powered

drones are being developed for military and

commercial use.

Both AUVs and UAVs were irst developed for

military purposes and we will see increasing

application of military technologies for civilian

and commercial use.

BIODEGRADABLE POLYMERS FOR ENHANCED OIL RECOVERY

Water is injected into conventional oilields

to increase recovery by improving the

sweep across the reservoir and to maintain

reservoir pressure. Owing to variability

in reservoir properties and the fact that

water is less viscous than oil, injected water

inds the path of least resistance from the

injection well to the production well. The

consequence is a less effective sweep than

desired, and large oil volumes remaining

outside the main routes taken by the water.

Enhanced oil recovery (EOR) generally

refers to measures to achieve a higher

oil recovery than that obtained by water

injection alone. EOR typically aims to

enhance the sweep area or mobilize

otherwise immobile oil, and use of polymers

is one means for enhancing the sweep area.

A polymer is a long chain of molecules,

and, by adding polymers, the viscosity of

the injection water can be increased to

resemble the properties of the oil more

closely, thereby increasing the swept area.

In addition, by adding other polymers, a

gel-like plug can be formed, diverting the

water around the plug and forcing the water

to take new routes through the reservoir.

One challenge with using additives in

injection water is subsequent production

of injection water with additives. An

environmentally friendly alternative could

be provided by degradable, non-toxic

biopolymers, typically sugar-based, which

are readily available and suitable for large-

scale deployment by 2025.

Image: Courtesy Kongsberg Maritime

Image: Courtesy Statoil


RIGLESS PLUGGING & ABANDONMENT

At the end of a ield’s lifetime, all wells must be

permanently plugged and secured to avoid

future leaks. Current technologies for plugging

and abandonment (P&A) generally require

a rig to perform the time-consuming task of

permanent plugging, which equates with high

expenditure. P&A currently accounts for 40-50%

of total decommissioning costs. Given that rig

slots could also be used for value-generating

drilling of exploration, appraisal, or production

wells, P&A, which is pure cost, is typically left

for later. In the North Sea alone, there are 8,000

wells that have not been adequately plugged.

New P&A technologies are needed for

permanent plugging of wells much more cost

effectively. In order to achieve this, the operation

needs to be performed without a rig; this

implies that P&A should be performed with

the well tubing in place. Suitable technologies

are presently operational in some regions and

for some low-risk well types, but most wells

currently require rig-assisted P&A.

Rigless P&A offers large cost savings, but

needs to include both a risk-based approach

and revised regulations that deine what is

suficient for long-term integrity, taking into

account well-speciic risks. Both governments

and oil companies have a common interest

in plugging old wells to minimize the risk of

future oil spills from wells with temporary plugs,

and in accelerating uptake of low-cost P&A

technologies.

LNG AS FUEL FOR TRUCKS AND RAILWAY

Greater use of natural gas in transport is

one way of improving urban air quality and

reducing emissions. Regulatory limitations on

NOx emissions and air particulate matter levels

have been introduced stepwise over the past

decade, requiring the transportation industry

to use more cleanly burning fuels or to install

ilters and equipment to clean the engine

exhaust. In addition, gas prices are lower and

more stable than diesel. In Europe, LNG-fuelling

infrastructure is well underway and will connect

12 countries (LNG Blue Corridor). Interest by

commercial leet owners in LNG-fuelled vehicles

has risen signiicantly over the past decade,

owing to on-going concerns about emissions,

a better spread between lower-priced natural

gas and higher-priced diesel fuel, and improved

operational eficiencies.

Only a quarter of the world’s railway lines are

electriied; in Europe, more than 50% of railway

lines are electriied; in North America nearly

none. According to US Energy Information

Administration, LNG may gain 35% of the US rail

fuel market share by 2040.

With current low gas prices in US, there will be a

push towards LNG as fuel in the US market that

will probably spread to other countries. LNG

fuel in the US is now produced from LNG peak-

shaving plants, but with more US liquefaction

production capacity, use of LNG as fuel will

become more attractive.

Projection of natural gas demand for freight rail and medium- and heavy-duty vehicles in the United States 2015-2040

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

Natural gas for rail freight

Natural gas for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles

Pe

rce

nt

of

en

erg

y d

em

an

d f

or

tra

nsp

ort

Wells to be decommissioned on the UK continental shelf

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

Future Rigless Partial Completion

Future Rigless with Entire Completion

Rig Required

Plugged Wellbore Requiring Annulus Plugs

Rigless

Subseawells

Platformwells

Source: Scottish Enterprise, Decom North Sea and Arup (2014)

Source: US Energy Inormation Administration (2014)


POWER

NEW MATERIALS

The development of new materials plays key

roles in science and technology. In energy,

these range from solar panels coatings

and new battery chemistries to cheaper

permanent magnets and hybrid reinforced

composites for (direct drive) wind turbines

blades.

For solar PV technologies, materials such

as graphene have the potential to increase

eficiencies dramatically. Whereas silicon-

based cells currently achieve 15-20%

eficiency, a solar cell made from stacking

a single graphene sheet and a single

molybdenum disulphide sheet will achieve

about a 1-2% eficiency. Stacking several of

these 1 nm thick layers boosts the overall

eficiency dramatically. Then, further along

the horizon, materials like halide perovskite

(also called hybrid solar cells) show even

greater promise.

For power converter technologies, silicon-

based power electronics is reaching its

limits. Other wide bandgap semiconductors

promise better performance. These materials

are capable of higher switching frequencies

(kHz) and blocking voltages (upward of

tens to hundreds of kV), while providing

for lower switching losses, better thermal

conductivities, and the ability to withstand

higher operating temperatures. While issues

like defect density control for silicon carbide

and the extremely high decomposition

pressures for bulk gallium nitride production

still remain, they will increase the reliability

and eficiency of next generation electric

grids.

WIND ENERGY

Wind energy continues to grow rapidly

worldwide. It exceeds 20% annual penetration

in a number of European electricity grids, with

Denmark exceeding 40% in 2015. In many

areas, onshore wind now delivers the lowest

cost of energy and, by 2025, only solar energy

will achieve lower costs than wind in areas with

good solar irradiance.

Wind turbines are now manufactured in

very large numbers and represent a mature

technology. Still, signiicant developments

continue. Turbine sizes for the offshore market

are increasing, driven by the high cost of

foundations and installation. Turbines rated up

to 8MW and with diameters greater than 170m

are already installed, with designs reaching 12

MW and 200m. For deeper offshore waters,

where bottom-mounting is prohibitive, loating

turbines are starting to be piloted commercially,

and are likely to achieve full-scale deployment

by 2025, taking advantage of simpliied

installation and standardised mass-produced

units, thus opening up huge new potential.

By 2025, multi-rotor concepts may appear,

beneitting from the mass-production of larger

numbers of smaller rotors.

Further developments in turbine technology

include light, lexible blades and aerodynamic

control devices, innovations in transmission

systems, new sensors and smart control systems.

Equally important is the intelligent management

of large numbers of units, using condition

monitoring and central data acquisition and

analysis to optimize operation and maintenance.

More advanced controls are being developed

both at wind turbine and wind farm level. LiDAR

technology may be used to identify approaching

turbulence, allowing the controller to optimize

turbine performance. Greater use of measured

and estimated load data allows the operation

of turbines and wind farms to be tailored

dynamically, enhancing economic performance

as environmental and electricity market

conditions change. An example is to reduce

power output to preserve component life when

turbulence is high, or electricity prices are low,

or forecast production is exceeded. Within

timescales of just a few seconds, controllers may

transiently increase or decrease power output in

response to grid frequency variations, increasing

grid frequency stability and facilitating higher

wind penetrations. Wind farm controllers can

adjust the behaviour of individual turbines to

minimise wake interactions between turbines,

increasing farm production while reducing

fatigue loads to extend life. In addition,

controllers will be able to adjust aggregate

active and reactive wind farm power in response

to grid requirements.

05 15 25 35 45 55

20

40

60

80

100

120

Dis

tan

ce t

o s

ho

re (

km

)

Average water depth (m)

In operation Under construction Approved

Trend

Distance to shore and average water depth of a representative selection of European wind farms. The size of the bubbles are indicative of the capacity of the wind farms.

Source: The European Wind Energy Association (2012)


SOLAR PV

PV systems have many different applications,

ranging from small rooftop-mounted (< 20 kW),

to utility-scale (>1 MW), to off-grid applications,

and as such there are many differing “grid

parities”. A PV-system for a residential roof,

for instance, competes with the retail price of

electricity, whereas a utility-scale PV system

competes with the wholesale price of electricity.

Solar power is technology-driven, and unlike

extractive industries, its cost-curve will continue

to trend downwards. The present worldwide

boom in solar is matched by an equally large

R&D effort. A wide range of technologies, from

conventional silicon to organic-based cells, is

being investigated. Each new innovation will

accelerate the already rapid uptake of solar

energy use.

Solar PV has shown exponential growth almost

since the start of grid-connected deployment.

The learning curve of PV shows that the module

price decreases by over 20% for every doubling

of capacity. Inverters also show steady learning

curves and lifetime expectations have improved

signiicantly. The balance of system cost is

expected to fall, mainly through improvements

in eficiency of the modules. Combining the

expected market growth and the historical cost

reduction, it is clear that by 2025 solar PV will be

the cheapest form of electricity in many regions

of the world, driving several changes in the

power system.

ELECTRICITY STORAGE

Electricity can be stored in a direct way in

superconductive coils or (super) capacitors.

However, electricity is usually stored in a non-

electrical form, such as electrochemically in

batteries, as moving mass in a lywheel, in hydro

reservoirs (pumped hydro), in pressurized gases,

and in heated or cooled substances like molten

salts and liquid nitrogen. Power to gas (to

hydrogen or methane and back) is an option for

seasonal storage.

Over the next decade we expect a steep decline

in battery prices and a correspondingly rapid

increase in home energy storage solutions. This

development, which is driven in part by the

rapid rise of renewables in the energy mix, will

pave the way for a growing number of electricity

prosumers. However, new rules and regulations

need to be in place for energy storage to play a

key role in the utility system.

Analysis of residual loads reveals the need

for different electricity discharge durations.

Different electricity storage technologies will

be optimized for different discharge duration

and power output requirements. Storage

technologies with a discharge duration of

several hours, such as chemical batteries,

can, for instance, perform peak-shaving for

consumers, whereas storage technologies with a

high power rating and long discharge durations

are most suited for energy applications on a

systems scale, such as load shifting, renewable

forecast error back-up and frequency restoration

services to the transmission system operator

(TSO).

0.100.001 0.01 0.1 1.00 10.00 100.00 1,000 10,000

1.00

10

100

Decline of solar PV cost relative to installed capacity

Co

st p

er

wa

tt-p

ea

k

Cumulated Produced Capacity (GW)

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2010

2013 2014

2025

UPSPower Quality

System power ratings, module size

Dis

cha

rge

tim

e a

t ra

ted

po

we

r

Bulk powermanagement

T & D grid supportLoad shifting

Application range for alternative energy storage technologies

1 kW 1 GW10 kW 100 kW 100 MW1 MW 10 MW

Se

con

ds

Pumpedhydro

Compressed airEnergy storage

NaS battery

NiMH

High-power flywheels

High-powersupercapacitors

Li-ion battery

NaNiCl2 battery

NiCd

Flow batteries: Zn-Cl, Zn-BrVanadium redox, New chemistries

Min

ute

sH

ou

rs

Advanced lead-acid battery

Lead-acidbattery

High-energysupercapacitors

Source: Fraunhofer ISE (2015)

Source: B. Dunn, H. Kamath and J.-M. Tarascon (2011)


DEMAND RESPONSE MANAGEMENT

Demand Response Management (DRM), of

electric demand of heat pumps, EV charging

and industrial heating and cooling processes,

is potentially the most economic measure to

create lexibility in response to variations in

renewable power generation. DRM is performed

by either controlling customer demand directly

(dispatchable DRM) or by issuing a time-of-use

price, rewarding customers that respond to this

(non-dispatchable DRM).

Both dispatchable DRM and non-dispatchable

DRM have major disadvantages. Dispatchable

DRM can be quite intrusive to customers

because it is dificult to adjust measures to

changing customer circumstances. Examples

are remotely controlled air-conditioning and

load-shedding contracts. Non-dispatchable

DRM offers much less lexibility because it relies

on the willingness of residents or businesses to

adjust their electricity consumption in response

to price incentives. Examples are day/night

tariffs and critical peak pricing.

Technological developments are starting to

make DRM solutions possible that combine

the beneits of both approaches without the

disadvantages, resulting in much more viable

DRM options that create much-needed lexibility

for wind and solar integration. By 2025, DRM will

be an indispensable service to prosumers and,

as such, will provide retailers and aggregators

with a tool to differentiate their services in new

ways.

SMART ENERGY-PRODUCING BUILDINGS

Energy eficient measures such as improved

insulation and appliances such as heat pumps

and PV panels have become commonplace.

Attention is now shifting to the energy

performance of whole buildings and how they

may be smartly designed such that, on average,

they produce more energy than they need.

Within 10 years energy producing buildings will

be the standard for new residential properties in

many industrialized countries.

A vision of a smart energy-producing house is

one in which solar is the main source of energy.

Adding devices that have some lexibility in their

energy behaviour, like battery energy storage,

heat pumps, air-conditioning, and charging

of EVs enables further optimization of energy

use with smart self-learning thermostats. Smart

meters will make it possible to measure this

lexibility and monetize it.

While developments in solar and storage

may suggest that buildings will go “off grid”,

the opposite is more likely to occur. Buildings

have the potential to become energy hubs, an

invaluable asset in the management of power

systems, offering much-needed lexibility.

Instead of the grid providing buildings with

power, it will be the buildings themselves that

help the grid to remain stable by being able to

providing power to other residential, industrial,

and commercial customers from renewable

energy sources.

Expected savings from Demand Response programs for selected EU countries by 2020

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Ger

man

y

Fran

ce UK

Italy

Spai

n

Swed

enN

ether

lands

Gre

ece

Aust

riaD

enm

ark

Savings in Mt of CO2

Savings in number of 500 MW peak power plants

Solar photovoltaic

Heat pump water heater

Energy efficient lighting

Demand response appliances

Energy storage

Home recycling system

Smart meter

Water filtration

Home energy manager

Source: Capgemini 2008


CYBER-PHYSICAL POWER GRIDS

Increased adoption of renewable energy, the

desire to provide universal access to electricity,

and requirements for increased grid resilience

are driving an increasingly distributed power

grid. As distributed power grids evolve

the mostly stand-alone sub-systems will be

connected. Smart devices reacting on price

incentives from aggregators or retailers and

smart energy-producing buildings will also be

connected to the grid.

In 2025, power grids will have omnipresent

sensors within the grid. These will provide real-

time data, enabling operators to make decisions,

learn, and adapt to the variable behaviour of

renewable energy sources. The grids will have

features such as self-coni guration for resilience

and reduction of losses, self-adjustment

for voltage variations, self-optimization for

disturbance mitigation, and dispatch automatic

demand-response to avoid capacity

problems. In effect, power grids will become

cyber-physical energy systems –physical

entities controlled by digital control systems.

This introduces new challenges related to,

for instance, the validation of safety and

reliability, and new modelling techniques

will be required to design, test, and verify

the power grid management in a systems

context.

HYBRID GRIDS

In order to accommodate the increasing share

of renewable energy, electricity will need to be

transmitted over ever-longer distances. HVDC is

the solution of lowest cost in this regard. In the

next ten years, development of new converter

technology and protection systems will drive

implementation of HVDC grids onshore as well

as offshore, for example in the North Sea.

In the future a SuperGrid, combining ultra-

high voltage DC and AC systems, will be

introduced to make possible integration of

renewable energy, while ensuring security of

grid operation. Nevertheless, transformation of

existing power systems to SuperGrids will take

decades.

In 2025, hybrid grids will emerge during

the transition period that will be forged by

increasing penetration of l exible AC and HVDC

technology, allowing optimum control over

power transmission systems. The trend towards

a hybrid grid with embedded HVDC is already

visible in Europe, USA, and China. Hybrid

grids hold considerable promise, but they also

involve increasing levels of complexity. For

example, combining slow, mechanical controls,

typically associated with AC systems, and faster

electronically-controlled HVDC systems, involves

complex interactions.

Networks

Actuationinformation

Physicalsensing

Cyber space

Real space

Conceptual European supergrid structure connecting renewable power sources

Hydro WindBiomassSolar

HVDC

Offshore grid

HVAC

VISION: ENERGY

ELISABETH H. TØRSTAD

CEO OIL & GAS

In DNV GL we see clear signs of an energy transition to

a low carbon future. A future where a set of solar panels

on your roof may automatically trigger home storage and

participation in a demand response programme, or where

a mobile phone may help you make smart decisions, for

example, whether to drive an electric vehicle or take the local

liquei ed gas-fuelled bus for your daily commute.

Our transition to a low carbon economy must be rapid to

ensure that our planet’s ecosystems are able to provide a safe

future for the generations to come. In DNV GL, we believe

that the uptake of renewable and cleaner technologies

should be greatly accelerated, supported by balanced

regulations that promote safe and sustainable solutions,

including standardization and technical assurance, to provide

peace of mind to stakeholders and society.

Current trends suggest that, by 2025, renewable energy will

have outstripped coal as the largest source of electricity, and

will also be responsible for more than half of the additional

annual power generation capacity. The combination of gas

and renewables, with the added l exibility of various sources

of gas, such as biogas, will positively impact the environment

and lead to overall savings. This shift will help countries

accommodate higher electricity demand and accelerate

ELISABETH HARSTAD

CEO ENERGY


progress towards the global goal of universal access to

electricity in a sustainable way.

Fossil fuels will remain a signii cant part of the energy

portfolio for decades, although the mix will change and

support a stronger position for gas. There is a big untapped

opportunity to extract and use fossil fuels in a way that

signii cantly lowers emissions. The oil and gas industry needs

to stop l aring and venting, make a step change in energy

efi ciency, for example, by using renewable energy for

power in the production and rei ning of hydrocarbons, and

massively deploy carbon capture and storage technologies.

We foresee the emergence of industry-wide fuel efi ciency

targets to reduce emissions from road and maritime

transport, escalate the demand for electric and hybrid energy

solutions for road and short-distance maritime transport, and

trigger growth in cleaner burning gas and biofuel solutions.

By 2025, global coal consumption will be in steady decline,

lower emission gas will become a major transport fuel, and

energy efi ciency measures will increasingly be enforced

in transport, industry and for buildings and consumer

appliances. Combined with the renewable shift in the power

sector, these measures will put the world on an urgently

needed, downward trending carbon emissions trajectory.


Healthcare 72

Food supply 76

Vision 80

LIF

E S

CIE

NC

ES

PLA

NTS

Enviromentalsciences

IT medicine

Health sciences

Immunology

Genetics andgenomics

Food sciences

Tissueengineering

PH

YSI

CA

L

”Life sciences” is an umbrella term that describes the study of living organisms, their processes, interrelationships, and connections to the environment. In recent years, life sciences have become progressively more cross-disciplinary: exploring the potential of technology to improve the quality and longevity of physical, social, and mental health both for individuals and populations.

The life sciences encompass research into the

molecular, cellular, and functional basis of plants,

animals, humans, and ecosystems, as well as

investigation into how innovation can be adopted

and adapted into everyday life. In doing so, they

draw not only on biology, but also related subjects

such as bioethics, economics, anthropology,

organizational psychology, and human factors.

Life sciences are therefore essential in translating

research into practice in the pursuit of safer,

smarter, and greener futures.

Healthcare and health sciences:

Healthcare faces signiicant quality and

sustainability challenges. Provision of effective

healthcare to deliver human and animal health and

well-being for growing and ageing populations

relies, more than ever, on technological

innovations in the health sciences sector. Health

sciences comprise research that generates

new knowledge, as well as the application of

that knowledge in healthcare to improve well-

being, to prevent, cure, and manage diseases,

and to understand how humans and animals

function. It is inter-disciplinary, drawing on ields

such as genetics, immunology, microbiology,

neurobiology, epidemiology, biostatistics, public

health, and sociology, and their application in

medicine, nursing, health therapies, technology

and design.

Food supply chain and food sciences:

The food supply chain is under threat on

many fronts: new weather patterns, increasing

populations, human migration, and pollution of

land and water. Food sciences are core to the

creation of safe and sustainable supply chains

that can alleviate food poverty and end hunger.

Food sciences investigate the biochemical

composition of food and beverages and their raw

materials, the causes of their deterioration, and

the processes underpinning their growth, storage,

manufacture, and distribution. Food sciences are

multi-disciplinary, bringing together chemistry,

engineering, agriculture, nutrition, microbiology,

and home economics.

70 LIFE SCIENCES Technology Outlook 2025

AN

IMA

LSHUMANS

Molecularbiology

Biotechnology

Biochemistry

Animal science

Agriculture

Medical imaging

PharmacologyFood sciences

Plant sciences

Aquaculture

MENTAL

SOC

IAL

LIFE

SCIENCES

Examples of life science disciplines.

The inner circles illustrate that each of these

disciplines must be treated as an integrated

part of the ecosystem to which they belong,

giving consideration to interrelationships

with the environment and relevant

physical, social, and mental

elements.

Technology Outlook 2025 LIFE SCIENCES 71

HEALTHCARE

Access to safe, effective, and eficient health services is a fundamental human right, yet healthcare faces signiicant and deepening threats to its ability to meet the needs of humanity. Ageing populations, emerging diseases, climate change, rising costs, inequitable access, and an unenviable safety record mean that continued deployment of traditional healthcare methods between now and 2025 is not a sustainable option.

The development and adoption of technology, through

collaboration between healthcare and life sciences, is seen as

crucial to overcoming many of these challenges. Technology

is a key enabler in the pursuit of safe and sustainable person-

centred healthcare for all, and has the potential to reduce

fragmentation, decrease costs, and improve the safety of the

patient experience.

Key technology trends that will have signiicant impact

towards 2025 include personalization of medicine, surgery

based on genomic information, and the use of additive

manufacturing (3D printing) and nanotechnology to make

cellular repairs or produce prostheses and organs tailored to

an individual’s body and lifestyle. Furthermore, the spread of

mobile health (mHealth) technology will improve access to

healthcare, as assessment and intervention will be possible to

access remotely.

The opportunity for technology to add value to healthcare

is dependent, however, on its adoption being managed

coherently. Grasping this opportunity demands a methodical

approach that ensures that risks to the successful use of

technology from a healthcare system perspective are

identiied and managed.


Qui

Basic info:59 years oldwidowedno children

Physical health:BMI 27.6smokes limited exercise

Mental health:feels lonelyhistory of depression

Nihaj

Basic info:81 years oldlives in remote villagemarried10 children

Physical health:high cholesterolraised blood pressure mild strokeblood in stool

Mental health:good

Olaf

Basic info:15 years oldlives with his parents

Physical health:crushed left arm, reduced functionality

Mental health:good

Qiu lives in a suburb of Xian, is 59 years old, and

has been an insulin-dependent diabetic since being

diagnosed at the age of 4. She is overweight, with

a BMI of 27.6. Qiu’s mother, who is 85 years old,

suffered reduced mobility following a fractured

neck of femur, and, no longer fully able to care for

herself, moved in with Qiu. She has recently been

diagnosed with the early stages of dementia. Qiu

is widowed and has no children and, since retiring,

feels lonely. She has a history of depression, smokes

10 cigarettes a day (although she is trying to quit),

takes limited exercise as she is afraid to leave her

mother alone for long periods, and says that she

“uses food as a comfort”. Qiu’s primary care worker

is a community nurse based in a clinic attached to

the District General Hospital in the centre of Xian.

Nihaj (81 years old) lives in a remote village in

Rajasthan with his wife Eisha (76 years old) and has an

extensive family support network. He takes statins for

cholesterol, plus an angiotensin-converting-enzyme

(ACE) inhibitor and diuretics for his blood pressure.

Nihaj suffered a mild stroke 18 months ago, but has no

remaining physical dei cits. He recently noticed blood

in his stool and an increased frequency in the need to

defecate. Health facilities in his district are limited to a

local health clinic with a health advisor and a weekly-

visiting assistant physician. The clinic is connected to

the regional hospital through a telemedicine service

for access to specialists, has a remotely controllable

diagnostic robot (also connected to the regional

hospital and used to support the assistant physician

in taking samples and performing minor surgery), and

has a supply chain that is serviced by unmanned aerial

vehicles that deliver medication and equipment.

Olaf is 15 years old. He lives with his parents

on Spitsbergen in the Svalbard archipelago. On

a family holiday in Spain 3 months ago he was

involved in a motorbike accident. His left arm

was crushed and had to be amputated above the

elbow. Olaf remained in Spain for one month for

his initial emergency treatment and the start of his

rehabilitation. He is now at home with his family.

Olaf has a temporary prosthetic as his arm heals

and his rehabilitation progresses. He is expecting

a new prosthetic arm shortly, which will be custom-

designed at a specialist hospital in Oslo before

being printed locally at Olaf’s GP surgery. Once he

has i nished growing, Olaf will be i tted with a bio-

prosthesis that will incorporate organic tissue grown

from his stem cells.

QUI’S LIFE CYCLE

NIHAJ’S LIFE CYCLE

OLAF’S LIFE CYCLE

CASE 1 – QIU

CASE 2 – NIHAJ

CASE 3 – OLAF


TREATMENTAND

REHABILITATION

1.

1.

1.2.

3.

2.3.

2.

3.

TREATMENTAND

SELF-MANAGEMENT

1. Qiu’s blood sugar is monitored continuously through an implanted chip and the results are sent to her primary care nurse and endocrinologist.

1. The local clinic is able to perform Nihaj’s biopsy using a robotic surgeon remotely controlled by specialists at the regional centre.

1. Records of Olaf’s care in Spain are transferred to Norway to enable shared care between his local GP and regional specialists.

2. Qiu uses an activity tracker to monitor her exercise levels and to receive automatic advice and encouragement.

2. Nihaj’s doctors are able to monitor his stool for blood through remotely connected lab-on-a-chip.

2. As Olaf grows he regularly receives new prostheses tailored to his body and life-style.

3. Social media has opened up Qiu’s life – she is able to join online groups to make friends, receive peer support, and keep in contact with her primary care nurse.

3. Drones ensure that Nihaj receives a regular supply of his life-saving medicine.

3. Gene therapy enables Olaf to be fi tted with a bio-prosthesis that combines mechanical and organic material, and enables him to obtain realistic sensation and movement.


CASE 1 – QIU KEY TECHNOLOGY TRENDS

Web-connected testing devices on smartphones enable individuals to capture personal health-related data and share that information with healthcare professionals. This allows for remote diagnoses and alerting healthcare workers to changing conditions as they occur, enabling earlier intervention. Lab-on-a-chip technology, integrating medical laboratory functions on miniature devices, will be available as clip-on sensors that can be attached to smartphones.

Sensors offer health-monitoring opportunities ranging from wearable foetal monitors that track a baby’s heartbeat and movement, to sensors for remote patient monitoring that enable frail ‘at risk’ adults to remain in their own homes rather than move to institutional care. Sensors collect data about the physical and chemical properties of the body and local environment, and use it to feed algorithms that output relevant information. By 2025, there will be 3 billion wearable sensors available.

Activity trackers enable people to monitor their lifestyles and optimize their exercise, sleep, and nutrition patterns. By 2025, their increasing interactivity and ability to process information based on personalized algorithms will alert people to the risks of their unhealthy behaviour and offer health coaching.

ACTIVITY TRACKERS:

REMOTE DIAGNOSTICS:

SENSORS:

Patients can connect with other patients with similar conditions through social media, enabling them to share experiences such as the effect of a certain treatment and how it is to live with a condition, as well as accessing advice and support from professionals. Similarly, health professionals can use social media to network with colleagues to seek advice and share knowledge within the healthcare community. Data generated from social media can also support in the prediction of patterns of disease-spreading.

Electronic Health Records (EHRs) have the ability to provide instant and secure information regarding a patient’s medical and treatment history. In 2025, it is anticipated that EHRs from multiple patients will be easily aggregated to provide decision support and enable healthcare clinics to optimize the integration of data for monitoring disease trends and clinical quality, and support risk management.

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) or drones will be increasingly used to assist delivery of medical tools and supplies, such as vaccines and medications. to patients on offshore vessels, dei brillators to patients in cardiac arrest, and essentials to remote, risky, or challenging locations.

DRONES: SOCIAL MEDIA: ELECTRONIC HEALTH RECORDS:

By 2025, it is anticipated that some babies and many adults will have their full genome sequenced, thus facilitating quicker and more accurate diagnosis, and the development of stratii ed and personalized care. The molecular basis for all monogenic rare diseases will have been discovered and clinical research linking patient records to genomic sequences will explore the mechanisms of complex polygenic multifactorial diseases, such as diabetes and rheumatoid arthritis.

ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING:

ROBOTICS: CLINICAL GENOMICS:

Robotics will impact healthcare in several ways. Robotic carers, for example, will substitute care workers in residential facilities. Endoscopy will be reduced, as patients will be able to swallow a micro-robot that can transmit pictures, as well as take samples of tissue that can be analysed in situ or later in the laboratory after the micro-robot has been excreted naturally. Robotic-assisted surgery will become even more commonplace by 2025. Although technical difi culties and complications remain a cause for concern in 2015, these will be overcome through the efi cient application of risk assessment and the qualii cation of new healthcare technology and its adoption from a systems perspective.

Additive manufacturing (3D printing) is expected to revolutionize the capability to customize medical devices and products. Bio-printed transplant-ready organs have already been developed, and production of tissues that can be integrated into a human body should be realized in the near future. By 2025, it is likely that patients will have the possibility to obtain a heart, liver, lung or kidney on demand, instead of waiting for a donor.


FOOD SUPPLY

Further globalization of the food supply chain towards 2025 will be driven by increasing global food demand and greater emphasis on food security, food safety, health, and sustainability. Future generations will increasingly demand food that matches their social and health proiles, and that is produced and distributed in a safe, equitable, and sustainable manner. Social media and social networks will also impact food and diet expectations, and increase the power of consumers.

Higher yields, less wastage, and better distribution will all

contribute to improve food security.

Increased transportation and more complex supply chains

are factors that put food safety high on the agenda. In

addition, there is increased emphasis on transparency for the

customer, to promote trust in the processing and origin of

food. Regulation will be a driver for new solutions.

Suficient availability of healthy food will be important in

developed countries, as well as in less developed countries.

From a national perspective, it is desirable to facilitate a

menu that reduces the potential for lifestyle diseases that

could become a heavy burden on the health budget. With

growing middle classes, there is also increased demand

from individuals for special products designed for enhanced

nutritional and health effects.

Sustainability will be an overriding principle throughout

the food supply chain. As we approach 2025, ever more

parameters will be incorporated in the support system to

document and verify the sustainability of products. These

parameters will be linked to climate change, ethics-related

requirements, and resource eficiency.


PROCESSINGTRANSPORT

AGRICULTURE

G1 G2 G3

AQUACULTURE

A1 T3

A3 S1A2 S2

A4 P2

FUTURE USE OF TECHNOLOGIES IN THE FOOD SUPPLY CHAIN

FOOD SUPPLY


DISTRIBUTIONPACKAGING SALE CONSUMER

P1 T4 T1 G4T2


FUTURE TECHNOLOGIES

Improvement of photosynthesis eficiency by altering gene expression or engineering a photosynthesis procedure from other organisms with a more eficient process.

Genome editing of livestock, enabling animals to have the very best genes its species can offer, or produce particular traits such as increased disease resistance, or hornless bulls.

Creation of new crop varieties with high concentrations of anthocyanin generated through genome editing, e.g., by use of CRISPR/Cas9. Anthocyanins are reported to inhibit certain cancers, age-related degenerative diseases, and cardiovascular diseases.

Personalized nutrition approaches based on individual genomic proiles to support metabolic health, maintain weight, or manage obesity.

Agricultural robots, or agbots, for farm automation of farm operations, such as autonomous precision seeding, intelligent weeding, planting, harvesting, and irrigation. By 2025, we may see farms with dozens or hundreds of agbots that monitor, cultivate, and harvest crops from the land with practically no human intervention. Optical delousing is a concept designed for eficient, non-invasive removal of individual sea lice from ish by using camera vision, advanced software, and laser technology. This offers a preventive and sustainable alternative to conventional and typically reactive delousing approaches.

Collection of data from satellites and airborne optical sensing technologies on crop production to assess crop health, prescribe fertilization amounts for optimal returns on inputs, forecast crop yields, and check compliance against regulations or subsidy requirements.

Acoustic sensors for early detection of bug-infested coconuts.

Collars with GPS can track a cow’s movements, but the technology far transcends that. Animal behaviour can be monitored, disease can be detected early, and sensors can provide climate, water, and feed indicators.

Tracing of food along supply chain using a DNA mixture as a biological marker, providing information such as origin, date of harvesting and processing location.

Automated milking robots are increasing productivity and reducing labour costs of dairy production, while also allowing farmers to spend more time interacting with their herds.

Autonomous self-driving trucks (commercially available by 2025).

Active packaging aims at extending shelf life or improving safety while maintaining food quality. Current leading concepts include packaging with moisture absorbers, oxygen scavengers, microwave susceptors, and antimicrobial agents.

In vitro meat production: meat production by cultivating cells from live animals in a bioreactor. The irst commercially available products from in vitro meat production are expected to be processed products, such as sausages, burgers, and nuggets.

Real-time monitoring of food quality using sensors attached to the food packaging, such as ethanol sensors providing indications of food spoilage, and time-temperature sensors providing temperature exposure history. The sensor data can be read wirelessly in real-time by customers. Scanning of molecular ingerprint of objects enabling, for instance, instant breakdown of alcohol, sugar, or calorie content of food prior to consumption.

GENOMICS:

AUTOMATION:

SENSORS:

TRACKING:

G1

A1

S1

P1 P2

T1

T2

T3

T4

S2

G2

A2

G3

A3

G4

A4

PACKAGING AND PROCESSING:


VISION: LIFE SCIENCES

JAHN HENRY LØVAAS

HEAD OF LIFE SCIENCES

Our world is facing a multitude of challenges to its ability

to provide food and preserve the health of its population;

challenges which are compounded by issues of climate

change, and intensifying income inequality worldwide which

works against fair and equitable access to food and health,

within and across geographies and economies.

Our strong belief is that DNV GL can and will contribute.

Capitalizing on our legacy built over 150 years, and our

global recognition as a leading independent assurance

provider with technological competence and capacity,

DNV GL has made the strategic choice of developing

signiicant assurance roles in selected branches of life

sciences. In particular, DNV GL will focus upon “Preserving

Health,” working with healthcare providers and healthcare

suppliers, and “Providing Food,” with the food & beverage

and agricultural sectors, and use of the ocean space for

provision of proteins and habitats for biotechnology.

In both the health and food branches of life sciences,

technology, in all its forms, will drive change and


transformation. But in providing solutions to the challenges

our societies are facing, rapid technological development will

also give rise to new issues and concerns.

Data will revolutionise healthcare. As individuals we will be

closely monitored, information will be collected and analysed

to personalize medical treatment and care, suppliers and

operators of data systems and processes will move into our

personal space and partly take over the role of hospitals and

care institutions. All of these data-driven advances may make

healthcare much more effective, but at the same time they

will create a series of safety, security, integrity, responsibility,

and accountability issues. Not the least of these will be the

challenge of enabling fair and equitable access to such

technologies.

Understanding these and similar developments in the

selected branches of life sciences is essential for DNV GL in

order to take and develop assurance roles that will enable

effective deployment of technologies and, by extension,

assist diverse societies in meeting many of challenges that

our world is facing.


FEATURE TOPIC: SUSTAINABLE OCEANS

82 SUSTAINABLE OCEANS Technology Outlook 2025

Oceans, which gave rise to all life on our planet, play a

vital role in sustaining all life forms, not least humankind.

According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the

United Nations (FAO), in 2012 the oceans provided more

than 200 million direct employment opportunities along

the food value chain, of which 58 million were in i sheries

or aquaculture. They also estimated that the livelihood of

roughly 12% of the global population (880 million people)

was assured by the latter industries, for the same year.

The productivity of the ocean ecosystems is, however,

threatened by a number of factors, including overi shing,

pollution, and acidii cation. This is evidenced, for instance,

by the WWF Living Planet Index (LPI) for marine populations,

which is based on trends among 1,234 marine species, and

shows a decline of 49% between 1970 and 2012. In addition,

the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

asserts that the three principal impacts of climate change

on the world’s oceans – warming, oxygen depletion, and

acidii cation – will alter ocean ecosystems as follows:

• Global marine species redistribution and reductions in

marine biodiversity in sensitive regions will challenge the

sustained provision of i sheries productivity and other

ecosystem services;

• Species richness and i sheries catch potential will increase,

on average, at mid and high latitudes, but decrease at

tropical latitudes and in areas of the Southern Ocean;

• Expansion of oxygen minimum zones and anoxic “dead

zones” will constrain i sh habitat; and

• Ocean acidii cation will pose substantial risks to marine

ecosystems, especially polar ecosystems and coral reefs,

associated with impacts on the physiology, behaviour, and

population dynamics of individual species, ranging from

phytoplankton to vertebrate animals.

The impacts of climate change on ocean species and

ecosystems may also amplify, or be amplii ed by, non-

climatic stressors, such as pollution and eutrophication. In

addition, second order effects are debated, such as possible

consequences on the ocean thermohaline circulation (THC),

for example, the Gulf Stream.

In response to these threats, the UN Sustainable Develop-

ment Goal number 14 calls for collective action to “conserve

and sustainably use the oceans, seas and marine resources

for sustainable development”.

Some of the measures associated with this goal are:

1. Signii cant reduction in marine pollution of all kinds;

2. Sustainable management and protection of marine and

coastal ecosystems;

3. Minimization of impacts of ocean acidii cation;

4. Effective regulation of i sheries and ocean resource

extraction activities;

5. Conservation of at least 10% of coastal and marine areas;

and

6. Increasing scientii c knowledge on the current state and

future trajectories for ocean health.

Implementation of these measures requires international

cooperation among governments and relevant governmental

entities, as well as among commercial users of the ocean

space, regulators, and scientists, and an implementation

roadmap based on a holistic system perspective. It will also

be necessary to conduct comprehensive ocean monitoring

and reporting programmes using a spectrum of monitoring

technologies, such as satellite-connected sensor-based

buoys and AUVs.

Technology Outlook 2025 SUSTAINABLE OCEANS 83

SHIPPING AND TOURISMThe shipping industry moves more than 80% of world trade by volume,

making it an integral part of the global economy. Seaborne trade is

also expected to grow in lockstep with, or possibly outpace, the global

GDP growth. Although shipping has signiicantly lower CO2 emissions

per tonne-kilometre relative to road and air transport, the industry still

accounts for a signiicant share of global emissions of CO2, NOX and

SOX, giving it a substantial environmental footprint.

While NOX emissions are expected to remain at current levels,

SOX emissions will decline sharply as a result of new IMO rules.

Furthermore, DNV GL believes that CO2 emissions from shipping

can be cut by 60% from present levels by 2050 without increasing

costs. This can be achieved through deployment of a spectrum of

abatement options, ranging from reducing speed, the use of hybrid-

electric power systems and alternative fuels such as LNG and biofuels,

technical measures covering improved hull and engine designs, as

well as optimization of fuel eficiency through sophisticated monitoring

and control systems.

Tourism is a rapidly expanding industry that generates close to 10%

of the gross world product, and is a particularly signiicant component

of the economy in many coastal communities – 80% of all tourism is

based near the sea. Cruise tourism alone represents over 300,000

jobs and had a direct turnover of €15.5 billion in 2012. Although

tourism offers opportunities for sustainable growth and development,

its contribution to marine pollution and habitat destruction places

increasing pressure on the world’s oceans and coastal environments.

This places mounting pressure on the cruise shipping sector to reduce

its environmental footprint.

FISHERIES AND MARICULTUREThe per capita consumption of ish has doubled the since 1960,

and more than 3 billion people today rely on ish as a major source

of protein. Aquaculture therefore plays an increasing role, already

providing more than half of the world’s ish supply for human

consumption. However, despite advances in technology that permit

massive industrial ishing operations, the global catch of ish from

marine waters has not increased signiicantly since the late 1980s.

The current ish production model of both isheries and aquaculture is

clearly not sustainable. The FAO estimated that 28.8% of marine ish

stocks were overished at biologically unsustainable levels in 2011, and

another 60% of marine ish stocks were fully exploited. For mariculture,

environmental sustainability concerns include genetic dilution of wild

stocks, destruction of mangroves, and impacts on sensitive coastal

areas.

Furthermore, for both isheries and mariculture the proportion of total

catch that is discarded is generally considered a wasteful misuse of

marine resources. The total loss along the primary catch to human

consumption value chain ranges from 30 to 50% across different

geographical regions. This highlights a signiicant potential to increase

the utilization of marine by-products to feed growing populations.

Today, most of the by-products are used in the feed sector, but

increasing volumes are used to produce high-priced ingredients for

human applications, such as omega-3 in functional foods and dietary

supplements, protein hydrolysates for bioactive applications, and

medical food.

84 SUSTAINABLE OCEANS Technology Outlook 2025

ENERGY HARVESTING The world’s oceans represent a huge potential for renewable

electricity generation. In addition to loating, anchored, or

ixed offshore installations for wind power and solar power, and

offshore geothermal power, the ocean water column holds an

additional potential to generate 20,000 – 80,000 TWh. The table

below provides a list of alternative sources of electricity and the

associated estimated global potential.

The IEA estimates that offshore electricity generation has the

potential to create 160,000 jobs and save 5.2 Gt of CO2 emissions

by 2030. Electricity generated can be transmitted to shore, or

could be used to power offshore oil and gas installations and

remote coastal or island communities, hence avoiding the need

for onsite fossil fuel-based power generation or transmission of

power from shore.

SEABED MINERAL MININGThere is a growing interest in seabed mineral mining, owing to the fact

that sealoor mineral deposits are generally much more concentrated than

those on land. This implies that less material must be moved in order to

extract the same amount of usable minerals. The main types of seabed

mineral deposits are:

• Polymetallic sulphides such as copper, cobalt, zinc, lead, silver and

gold;

• Polymetallic nodules such as manganese, nickel, copper, cobalt, iron,

silicon, and aluminium; and

• Cobalt-rich ferromanganese crusts attached to substrate rock.

The establishment of regulations based on scientiic knowledge to avoid

signiicant negative impacts on the oceans and ocean ecosystems from

seabed mineral mining will be essential. This includes minimizing direct

effects on the seabed (infauna and epifauna) by collection machinery, and

negative impacts from discharges to the water column, such as discharge

of wastewaters, materials, and exchange of oligotrophic, low-nutrient,

deep-sea water and sediments with other zones.

The International Seabed Authority (ISA) has been established to regulate

mining of marine minerals in the international seabed area (deined as

the seabed and subsoil beyond the limits of national jurisdiction). The

ISA is an autonomous international organization established under the

1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and

its 1994 Implementing Agreement relating to deep seabed mining. The

Mining Code issued by the ISA comprises a comprehensive set of rules,

regulations, and procedures to regulate prospecting, exploration, and

exploitation of marine minerals, and guidance for contractors on the

assessment of the environmental impacts.

Energy source Electricity generation mechanism Global potential (TWh / year)

Tidal powerTransfer of kinetic energy of tidal currents and the potential energy

held by high tides.7,8

Wave power Transfer of kinetic energy of ocean waves. 29,5

Ocean thermal energyExtraction of energy from heat exchange processes between warm

surface waters and cold seawater from deeper depths.44,000+

Ocean osmotic energyExtraction of energy from chemical pressure potential between saline

ocean water and fresh river water at the mouths of major rivers.1,65

Energy from ocean currents Transfer of kinetic energy in ocean currents. 800+

Technology Outlook 2025 SUSTAINABLE OCEANS 85

TECHNOLOGY

OUTLOOK

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Dear Reader: I hope you have gained useful insights on technologies that will shape your industries in the years ahead. Establishing how individual technologies will develop or be taken up is becom-ing progressively more dificult in this time of accelerating and interconnected political, economic and climate change.

As we have shown in this report, technology is key to ad-dressing the many challenges facing our planet. The tradeoff is that rapid technological advances, not least in digitaliza-tion, are in themselves a major driver of uncertainty.

Being able to identify, develop and deploy technologies is a pre-requisite for remaining competitive. The DNV GL Tech-nology Outlook 2025 is your guide to selected, impactful technologies of relevance to your industry sector.

Technology is becoming more important every day. But it needs to be mastered. At DNV GL, we believe the best way to do so is through collaboration, allowing us to solve com-mon challenges effectively together. Many technological solutions, rules, standards and practices have been devel-oped in close cooperation with our customers worldwide. And we stand ready to support you in developing safer, smarter and greener solutions.

I hope that you have found this report interesting and worth sharing with your colleagues.

Pierre Sames Group Technology and Research Director

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DNV GLDriven by our purpose of safeguarding life, property and the environment, DNV GL enables organizations to advance the safety and sustainability of their businesses. We provide classiication and technical assurance along with software and independent expert advisory services to the maritime, oil and gas, and energy industries. We also provide certiication services to customers across a wide range of industries. Operating in more than 100 countries, our 15,000 professionals are dedicated to helping our customers make the world safer, smarter and greener.

Strategic Research & InnovationThe objective of strategic research is to support DNV GL’s overall strategy through new knowledge and services. Such research is carried out in selected, key technology areas with long term impact, and with the ultimate objective of helping our customers set new standards of safer, smarter and greener performance in their industries – for today and tomorrow.

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