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Technology Options for Achieving Low Carbon Energy in Indonesia
Kickoff Meeting ASIA PACIFIC REGIONAL INITIATIVE ON ENERGY, ENVIRONMENT
AND ECOSYSTEMS (3E) NEXUS FOR SUSTAINABEL DEVELOPMENT
Center for Research on Energy Policy Department of Chemical Engineering INSTITUT TEKNOLOGI BANDUNG
Dr. Retno Gumilang Dewi
Maldives, 24 – 25 February 2014
Outline
1. Introduction
2. Energy Sector and GHG Emissions and It’s Projection
3. Power Supply Mix and Transportation Scenarios
4. GHG Emission Level and Mitigation Actions
1. INTRODUCTION
§ LCD is long term vision (2050) of economic development in a low-‐carbon way à challenge for achieving LCD is now in a global mainstream;
§ ParCcular emphasis in short-‐term (2020) is to address opCons for achieving GHG reducCon target (NaConal AcCon Plan) up to 26% below the baseline with domesCc budget and further up to 41% with internaConal support. Supported by PerPres No. 61/2011 (NaConal AcCon Plan for MiCgaCon AcCon) and PerPres 71/2011 (GHG Inventory), regulaCon for MRV is under preparaCon
§ Energy sector is 2nd contributor of naConal GHG emission, parCcularly CO2 emission aVer AFOLU (agriculture, forestry, and land use). CO2 energy sector increased: 369,800 ton (2005) to 392,820 ton (2010)
§ LCD is relaCvely new in Indonesia; current government plans on energy are not developed to achieve LCD, but sCll inline with/supporCve to LCD. Current energy supply mix: share of renewable less carbon emi^ng energy is sCll low, RE (6.1%), oil (44.34%), gas 43.30 %, coal 24.43%.
§ LCD strategy is not to achieve world’s target on carbon intensity level; it is more to explore possibiliCes of the future development in a low-‐carbon way.
0.28 0.371.00
0.040.05
0.06
0.050.05
0.43 0.29
0.130.16 0.17
0.250.39
0.83
1.44
0.06
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Emiss
ion (G
t CO2
e) .
Peat EmissionWasteForestryAgricultureIndustryEnergy
1.35 1.76
2.95
2000 2005 2020
Sector 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Growth, %/yr
Energy 280,938 306,774 327,911 333,950 372,123 369,800 5.7 Industry 42,814 49,810 43,716 46,118 47,971 48,733 2.6
Agriculture 75,420 77,501 77,030 79,829 77,863 80,179 1.1 Waste 157,328 160,818 162,800 164,074 165,799 166,831 1.2 LUCF 649,254 560,546 1,287,495 345,489 617,423 674,828* Fluctuated
Peat Fire1 172,000 194,000 678,000 246,000 440,000 451,000 Fluctuated
Total (+LUCF) 1,377,753 1,349,449 2,576,952 1,215,460 1,721,179 1,991,371 Fluctuated
Total w/o LUCF 556,499 594,903 611,457 623,971 663,756 665,544 3.2
GHG Emissions, Ton CO2-eq per year
Emission/capita from energy [Source: AIM training WS Asian LCDS Study , 2010]
GHG em
issions per capita
Time
Developed Countries
Developing Countries
Leapfrog-‐development
Indonesia (2005) 0.46 ton C/capita
GHG per capita in 2050 CM1 0.89 ton C (6.91 ton CO2) CM2 0.63 ton C (2.31 ton CO2)
International (2005), Ton C/capita - Japan, UK, Germany 2.5 - US 5.5; Canada 4.2 - India 0.3; China 0,6 - World (average) 1.0 – 1.1
World Target (2050): 0,5 ton C/capita
Indonesia BAU (2050): 3.62 ton C/capita
(13.28 ton CO2/capita)
CO2 EMISSIONS INTENSITY OF ENERGY SECTOR
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Per Capita Emission
(tC)
Energy All (Exc.LUCF)
All (Inc.LUCF)
High Energy Locked-‐in Type Development With High Damage on Economy and Natural System
HDI ( ~ LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH + ADULT LITERACY & SCHOOL ENROLMENT + GNP PER CAPITA AT PPP) VERSUS PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND PER CAPITA (2002) IN
TONNES OF OIL EQUIVALENT (TOE) PA [1 TOE PA = 1.33 KWS]
Note: shoulder in HDI vs energy-use curve at ~ 3 toe pa [= 4.0 kWs] per capita 3 toe = 22 boe
3 toe = 22 boe
0.5 toe
BAU 2050
Base 2005
2.42toe
2.81 toe
CM 2
CM 1 1.95toe
2005 2020
Emission level target
ReducCon target non binding commitment (26% or 41%)
Baseline
GHG Em
issions level
Sector Emission Reduction (Giga ton CO2e) Total (41 %) 26% 15%
Forestry and Peatland 0.672 0.367 1.039 Waste 0.048 0.030 0.078 Agriculture 0.008 0.003 0.011
Industry 0.001 0.004 0.005 Energy 0.038 0.018 0.056
Total 0.767 0.422 1.189
2005 2020
Baseline
GHG Em
issions level Unilateral: National/
Sub-national Action Plan RAN/RAD (Unilateral NAMAs)
Supported NAMAs TA, Grand Inv, JCM Credited NAMAs (CDM, Voluntary, Domestic)
26%
15%
Unilateral: domesCc budget (naConal/sub-‐naConal budget, private business, community, CSR, GoI just released sCmulus and incenCve for industry who wants to reduce GHG emission DomesCc C-‐credit: Carbon Nusantara Several intangible program: green industry, green building, proper, internaConal GIR, ISO, etc.
2. ENERGY SECTOR AND GHG EMISSION
NATIONAL CIRCUMTANCE
Electricity Grid Connected: northern and southern part of Sumatera Island, Jawa-Madura Bali (JAMALI), East Kalimantan, Sulawesi
Source: Data and Information Center, MEMR, 2012
Energy Resource Potential of Indonesia
Fossil Energy Resources Reserves Annual
Production R/P,
(Proven + Possible) year (*)
Oil 56.6 BBarels 8.2BBarels (**) 357 MBarels 23 Natural Gas 334.5 TCF 170 TCF 2.7 TSCF 63 Coal 104.8 Btons 18.8 Btons 229.2 Mtons 82 Coal Bed Methane 453 TCF - - - (*) assuming no new discovery; (**) including Cepu Block
New and Renewable Energy Resources Installed Capacity
Hydro 75.670 MW 4.200 MW
Geothermal 27.510 MW 1.052 MW
Mini/Micro Hydro 500 MW 86,1 MW
Biomass 49.810 MW 445 MW
Solar Energy 4,80 kWh/m2/day 12,1 MW
Wind Energy 9.290 MW 1,1 MW Uranium (***) 3 GW for 11 years*) (e.q. 24,112 ton) 30 MW
***) Only at Kalan – West Kalimantan
Current Condition of Energy Sector in Indonesia Final Energy Consumption
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
ACM & others 4.27 4.47 4.38 4.15 4.63 4.25 3.79 3.64 3.63 3.84 4.20
Transportation 20.32 21.65 22.12 22.81 26.04 26.05 24.84 26.16 28.75 32.96 37.35
Commercial 3.02 3.13 3.18 3.27 3.71 3.83 3.82 4.07 4.27 4.44 4.77
Household 43.30 44.00 44.24 45.12 45.86 45.81 45.66 46.62 46.25 45.96 47.52
Industry 36.78 36.82 35.79 40.20 38.44 38.35 40.91 43.90 43.73 43.45 51.94
0 20 40 60 80
100 120 140 160
mill
ion
to
e
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Biomass*(residential) 39.28 39.27 39.45 39.71 39.68 39.43 40.34 40.17 40.57 40.76 42.11
Electricity 7.09 7.57 7.80 8.10 8.96 9.58 10.08 10.86 11.55 12.05 13.19
LPG 1.21 1.21 1.28 1.28 1.34 1.23 1.37 1.60 2.29 3.69 4.74
Fuel 46.03 47.92 47.48 46.92 51.73 49.40 45.54 45.88 46.86 49.10 53.07
Gas 12.73 12.01 11.81 13.18 12.48 12.65 12.15 11.71 14.93 17.24 16.83
Coal 5.28 5.42 5.66 9.98 8.09 9.61 13.01 17.81 10.96 12.09 19.98
0 20 40 60 80
100 120 140 160
mili
on
to
e
*Residential include biomass
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 FugiCve 27 26 25 24 23 22 22 20 20 20 8
Non-‐specified 11 11 12 12 12 12 11 11 12 12 13
ResidenCal 38 39 41 42 42 41 40 34 31 28 26
TransportaCon 57 60 62 65 70 73 71 79 81 89 96
Industry 64 68 68 65 76 79 90 99 87 85 109
Energy producCons 84 102 120 127 132 127 129 117 122 129 135
0 50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400
million ton CO
2-‐e
! !
2005! Target!2025!–!PerPres!5/2006!!
Oil,!55.1%!
Coal,!19.4%!
Natural!Gas,!21.3%!
Geothermal,!1.2%!
Hydro,!3.0%!
Oil,!20%!
Coal,!33%!Natural!Gas,!30%!
Biofuel,!5%!
Geotherma5%!
Biomass*,!Nuclear,!
Hydro,SolarWind,!5%!
Coal!LiquefacMon
,!2%!
*excluding!residenMal!biomass!
§ New-RE increased from 4.5% (2005) to 25% (2025) is positive to GHG mitigations; coal increases from 19.4% (200) to 33% (2025) will negatively affect to mitigations; Supportive plan: increasing new-renewable up to 34%
§ Potential reduction: deplyoment of renewable and less carbon emitting energy
§ Indonesia relies on imported technology in all sectors, in which energy technologies are still inefficient, there are rooms for improvements.
KEN (National Energy Policy)
Increase New-Renewable Energy to 34%
GHG EMISSION PROJECTION
1.00 1.19 1.40 - 1.00
2.31
11.60
17.73
- 1.00 2.19
8.05
11.99
- 1.00 2.91
8.55
18.18
- 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
2005
2020
Ba
U
2050
Ba
U
2005
2020
Ba
U
2050
Ba
U
low
20
50 B
aU
h
igh
2005
2020
Ba
U
2050
Ba
U
low
20
50 B
aU
h
igh
2005
2020
Ba
U
2050
Ba
U
low
20
50 B
aU
h
igh
Population GDP Energy Demand CO2 Emission
Va
lue
at 2
005
= 1
• Baseline scenario: ProjecCon of GHG emission under expected socio-‐economic development in Indonesia without addiConal countermeasures to reduce GHG from energy.
• Counter Measure (CM) scenario: IntroducCon of low-‐carbon measures which are already available. AssumpCons are based on the official target (RAN-‐GRK, reduce 38 MtCO2 in energy sector).
GROSS OUTPUT OF PRODUCTION SECTOR
3,532 8,216
40,371
61,494
-‐
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2005 2020 BaU 2050 BaU low 2050 BaU high
Trillion Ru
piah
TerCary Industries Cement Iron & Steel Other Industry ConstrucCon Chemical Industry TexCle Food & Beverage Mining & Quarryng Agriculture
Rp./US$ = 10,000
35% 41%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2020 BaU
Tertiary Industries
Cement
Iron & Steel
Other Industry
Construction
Chemical Industry
Textile, Pulp paper
Food & Beverage
Mining & Quarryng
Agriculture
Macro&economy+and+Industry+Module
Labor+Module
Population+and+Household+Number+Module
Time&use+and+Consumption+Module
Transport+Module
Commercial+Building+Module
Energy+Demand+&+GHG+Emissions+Module GHG+emissions
Labor+demandWage
Number+of+workers
Average+working+time
PopulationPrivate+
consumption
Number+of+household
Output
Passenger+and+freight+transport+demand
Floor+area+of+commercial+buildings
Energy+demand
Income
•Export•Import+ratio
•Commuting+OD •Labor+participation+ratio•Demographic+composition•Average+number+of+family+occupants
•Breakdown+of+consumption
•Floor+area+per+output
•Population distribution•Trip+per+parson•Transport+distance•Modal+share
•Energy+service+demand+generation+unit•Energy+efficiency•Fuel+share•Emission+factor
•Government+expenditure•Labor+productivity
Exogenous+variables+and+parameters
Main+endogenous+variablesModule
InputFlow+of+endogenous+variables !
ENERGY SUPPLY MIX IN POWER GENERATION
41%
53%
52%
52%
31%
4%
4%
4%
15%
26%
26%
26%
8%
10%
11%
11%
0.02%
0.3%
0.3%
0.4%
5%
7%
7%
7%
0.1%
0.1%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
2005
2020 BaU
2020 CM(26%)
2020 CM(41%)
Coal Oil Gas Hydropower Biomassa Geothermal Solar & Wind
3. POWER SUPPLY MIX AND TRANSPORTATION SCENARIOS
2005 2020
Emission level target (to meet government emission reduction commitment)
Reduction target
Revised reduction targetBaseline
“Higher coal in power” scenarioGH
G Emi
ssion
s level
902
Type%of%energy% Base%year%2005% RUPTL%200962018% Revised%PLN%plan*%Coal% 40.7%% 53%% 65%%Oil% 30.6%% 4%% 3%%Natural%gas% 15.1%% 26%% 20%%hydro% 8.4%% 10%% 5%%geothermal% 5.2%% 7%% 7%%
%RUPTL 2009 -‐ 2018 Coal Oil Natural Gas Hydropower Biomass Geothermal Efficiency 28% 33% 38% 18% 29% 16% TransportaCon Loss 12.1% 12.1% 12.1% 12.1% 12.1% 12.1% Share 53.0% 4.0% 26.0% 9.7% 0.3% 7.0%
• Both modal share and transport volume of private vehicle increase in 2020 Baseline. • In 2020 CM, it is assumed that share of train increases volume of train become larger. • Freight transport volume increases proportionally with growth of secondary industries.
PROJECTED TRANSPORT VOLUME
Passenger transport Freight transport
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2005 2020 BaU 2020 CM(26%)
2020 CM All
Billi
on
pa
ssa
nge
r.km
bike
walk
airplane
ship
motorcycle
train
bus
Car
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2005 2020 BaU 2020 CM(26%)
2020 CM All
Billi
on
ton.
km
airplane
ship
train
truck
FINAL ENERGY DEMAND PROJECTION (2020)
By Fuel
By Sector
Difficult in moving away from oil
Industrial sector is main consumer
Biomass is used in rural residential
115
251 239 237
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
2005 2020 BaU 2020 CM1
2020 CM2
Mill
ion
toe
Biofuel
Electricity
Biomassa
Gas
Oil
Coal
115
251 239 237
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
2005 2020 BaU
2020 CM1
2020 CM2
Mill
ion
toe
Commercial
Industry
Residential
Freight Transport
Passanger Transport
PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY AND CO2 PROJECTION (2020)
145
357 343 344
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2005 2020 BaU 2020 CM1 2020 CM2
Mill
ion
toe
Biofuel
Solar & Wind
Geothermal
Biomassa
Hydropower
Gas
Oil
Coal
- 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000
2005 2020 BaU 2020 CM1 2020 CM2
Mill
ion
Ton
CO
2
Other Sectors
Other energy indusries
Power supply
Final demand sectors
0.346
1.009 0.965 0.947
-
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
2005 2020 BaU 2020 CM(26%) 2020 CM(41%)
Gig
a t
on
CO
2 Other Sectors
Other energy indusries
Power supply
Final demand sectors
1.4
3.5 3.3 3.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2005 2020 BaU 2020 CM(26%) 2020 CM All
ton
CO
2 p
erc
ap
ita
CO2 emission intensity
4. GHG EMISSION LEVEL AND MITIGATION ACTIONS
Climate Change Mitigation Acions are to reduce Nett GHG Emisions
Drivers of GHG Emissions can be identified from “IPAT identity”:
Impact = Population × Affluence × Technology
CO2 Emissions = Population × (GDP/Population) × (Energy/GDP) × (CO2 /Energy)
(“Kaya” multiplicative identity )
GDP E CNet C P SP GDP E
⎛ ⎞⎛ ⎞⎛ ⎞= −⎜ ⎟⎜ ⎟⎜ ⎟⎝ ⎠⎝ ⎠⎝ ⎠
Energy Efficient
Clean Energy and
Technology
• Clean Energy: renewable/less carbon emitting energy and technology in residential/commercial;
• Low Carbon Lifestyle: efficiency improvement through appliances technology and society behavior in residential/commercial;
• Low Carbon Electricity: more renewable energy, efficient power generation (pulverized to sub-critical, supercritical, and integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) equipped with carbon capture and storage (CCS), and decreasing losses in T&D of electricity grids;
• Low Carbon Fuels Industry: energy shift (toward renewable and less carbon emitting fuels), efficiency improvement of industrial processes, equipment, and appliances;
• Sustainable transport: transport mode shift (more mass rapid transport), fuel shift (to renewable/ less carbon emitting fuels), reducing trip generation & trip distance (improvement infrastructure, telecommunication, information access), traffic management, efficiency improvement.
MITIGATION STRATEGIES
LCS Actions
Clean Energy (Residential and Commercial)
Low Carbon Style(Residential and Commercial)
Low Carbon Electricity
Low carbon energy system in industry
Sustainable transport
Less CO2 Emission Energy Technology
Efficient energy technology appliances
Society Behavior in Residential /Commercial
Renewable energy & Less CO2 Emission Energy
Less CO2 Emission Energy Technology (Coal IGCC + CCS)
Efficient energy process and processing technology
Efficient energy technology of power generation
Increasing Efficiency of T & D
Renewable energy or Less CO2 Emission Energy
Renewable energy or Less CO2 Emission Energy
Efficient energy technology appliances
Reduce trip generation and distance (improve Infrastructure, telecommunication, new urban design, traffic management
Renewable energy or Less CO2 Emission Energy
modal shift (public/mass rapid transport utilization)
Energy Efficiency Improvement
LOW CARBON DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES
-‐ 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000
1
FugiCve reducion through LPG producCon in Oil and Gas Field
Eff. Energy Technology in ResidenCal (7.9 + 13.53 millions kWh)
Increase energy efficiency in road transport
Increase share of MRT
Increase share of Train
Modal shiV from Private Vehycle to walk and bycicle
EcoDriving (Eff. Energy)
Fuel subsCtute
Use more efficent car and bus
Increase share of BRT
Modal ShiV (Private to MRT)
ITS (Efficiency Energy in transport) and Modal ShiV (Private to MRT) 2
ITS (Efficiency Energy in transport) and Modal ShiV (Private to MRT) 1
Natural gas for city gas (94500 residenCal)
Use gas fuel in city public transportaCon
Biogas (10000 unit + 21400 unit)
Renewable Energy ImplementaCon
Energy conservaCon Community/Private (1303 buildings&industries )
Energy management 200 companies (Intensive Energy)
NATIONAL MITIGATION ACTON PLAN (RAN GRK)
SUB-‐NATIONAL ACTION PLAN (RAD) FOR GREATER JAKARTA
405 676
12 4 70 222 379 286 288 117 117 263 105 176
1,178 968
4,293 5
5,671 4,708
6,357
0 2000 4000 6000 8000
Busway Feeders busway
Monorail Bicycle lane
Renewal of public transport vehicle Regular vehicle emission test Freight transport schedulling
Park management ITS (Intelligent Transport System)
ERP (Electronic Road Pricing) TOD (Transit Oriented Development)
Ecodriving MRT (mass rapid transport)
CNG Fuel economy
Train Biofuel
Energy conservaCon in government build. Energy conservaCon in non-‐government build.
Energy efficient devices in residenCal Energy efficient devices in industry
Kilo Ton CO2
Socio-economy, energy, and CO2 for each development scenario
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Population GDP Final energy demand
GHG emissions
Value
of 2
005
= 1
Base
BaU
CM1
CM2
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2005 Base 2050 BAU 2050 CM1 2050 CM2
Mill
ion
Ton
C
Freight Trans.
Passenger Trans.
Industry
Commercial
Residential
CO2 emissions by sector, million ton C
Final energy demand by sector
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2005 2050BaU
2050CM1
2050CM2
Mill
ion
To
e
Passenger Transport
Freight Transport
Residential
Commercial
Industry
!
Primary energy demand by type of energy
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
2005 Base 2050 BaU 2050 CM1 2050 CM2*
Million TOE
* coal has inluded clean coal technology, CCS + IGCC
biomass (+biofuel)
solar wind geothermalnuclear
hydro
natural gas
Final energy demand by type of energy
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2005 Base 2050 Bau 2050 CM1 2050 CM2
Million Toe electricity
biomass
solar wind
Natural Gas
Oil
coal
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2005 Base 2050 BAU 2050 CM1 2050 CM2
Milli
on T
on C
Freight Trans.
Passenger Trans.
Industry
Commercial
Residential
CO2 emissions by sector, million ton C
Emissions reduction potential in demand side and supply side (power sector)
CO2 emission generation in demand side of energy system and reduction potential
(500)
(400)
(300)
(200)
(100)
0
Res
iden
tial
Com
mer
cial
Indu
stry
Pass
enge
r
Frei
ght
Res
iden
tial
Com
mer
cial
Indu
stry
Pass
enge
r
Frei
ght
2050 CM1 2050 CM2
(1,200)
(1,000)
(800)
(600)
(400)
(200)
0
Coal re
duction
Oil rdu
ction
Natural gas re
duction
Solar w
ind
Biom
ass/Biofue
l
Electricity
Coal re
duction
Oil rdu
ction
Natural gas re
duction
Solar w
ind
Biom
ass/Biofue
l
Electricity
2050 CM1 2050 CM2
(600)
(400)
(200)
0
200
Coal red
uctio
n
Oil rductio
n
Natural gas red
uctio
n
Hydro
nuclear
Solar w
ind geothe
rmal
Biom
ass/Biofue
l
Clean coal (IGCC
+ CCS)
coal
Oil
Natural Gas
Hydro
nuclear
Solar w
ind geothe
rmal
Biom
ass/Biofue
l
Clean coal (IGCC
+ CCS)
2050 CM1 2050 CM2
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2005 Base 2050 BAU 2050 CM1 2050 CM2
Milli
on T
on C
F-Transport
P-Transport
Industry
Commercial
Residential
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2005 2050BaU
2050CM1
2050CM2
(a) Residential sector
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2005 Base
2050 Bau
2050 CM1
2050 CM2
(b) Commercial sector
Electricity
Biomass
Solar & Wind
Natural gas
Oil
Coal
Action 1 Clean Energy: Increase share of renewable/less carbon emitting fuels
0
10
20
30
40
Energy in Residential
sector
Emissions from Residential
sector
Energy in Commercial
sector
Emissions from Commercial
sector
Valu
e in
200
5 =
1
20052050 BAU2050 CM12050 CM2
Final energy demand by service (left) and by fuel (right) in residential sector
0
20
40
60
80
2005 2050BaU
2050CM1
2050CM2
Ener
gy d
eman
d (m
illion
toe)
Other electric equipmentsRefrigerator
Lighting
Kitchen
Hot water
Cooling
0
20
40
60
80
2005 2050BaU
2050CM1
2050CM2
Ener
gy d
eman
d (m
illiion
toe)
Electricity
Biomass
Solar & Wind
Gas
Oil
Final energy demand by service (left) and by fuel (right) in commercial sector
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2005 2050BaU
2050CM1
2050CM2
Ener
gy d
eman
d (m
illion
toe)
Other electric equipmentsRefrigerator
Lighting
Kitchen
Hot water
Cooling
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2005 2050BaU
2050CM1
2050CM2
Ener
gy d
eman
d (m
illion
toe)
Electricity
Biomass
Solar
Gas
Oil
Action 2 Low Carbon Lifestyle:
0%
20%
40%
60%
Coal Oil Gas Biomass IGCC+CCS
Energy efficien
cy (%
)
2005, 2050BaU
2050CM1
2050CM2
Energy efficiency level of power generation in each scenario
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2005 2050BaU
2050CM1
2050CM2
IGCC+CCS
Biomass
Solar, wind, geothermalNuclear
Hydro
Gas
Oil
Coal
Share of power supply by energy type in each scenario
Action3: Low Carbon Electricity
Fuel consumption and CO2 emission of power generation sector in each scenario
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2005 2050BaU
2050CM1
2050CM2
Ener
gy d
eman
d (m
ilion
toe)
Coal with CCS
Gas
Oil
Coal
0
100
200
300
400
500
2005 2050BaU
2050CM1
2050CM2
CO2
emiss
ion (
milli
on to
n-C)
Gas
Oil
Coal
ACTION 4: LOW CARBON ENERGY SUPPLY
Fuel consumption and CO2 emission of power generation sector in each scenario
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2005 2050BaU
2050CM1
2050CM2
Ene
rgy
dem
and
(mili
on to
e)
Coal with CCS
Gas
Oil
Coal
0
100
200
300
400
500
2005 2050BaU
2050CM1
2050CM2
CO
2em
issi
on (m
illio
n to
n-C
)
Gas
Oil
Coal
Transport demand by transport mode in (a) passenger transport & (b) freight transport
0
5
10
15
20
25
2005 2050BAU
2050CM1
2050CM2
Tran
spor
t dem
and
(mill
ion
t-km
)
Air
Ship
Train
Large vehicle
Small vehicle
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2005 2050BAU
2050CM1
2050CM2
Trans
port d
eman
d(m
illion
pass
enge
r-km)
BikeWalkAirShipTwo wheelerTrainBusLarge vehicleSmall vehicle
ACTION 5: SUSTAINABLE TRANSPORT
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Passenger TransportDemand
Energy Demand
GHG Emissions
Valu
e in 2
005 =
1
2005
2050 BaU
2050 CM1
2050 CM2
0
5
10
15
20
25
Freight Transport Demand
Energy Demand
GHG Emissions
Valu
e in 2
005 =
1
Effect of passenger and freight transport demand to energy demand and CO2 emissions
NIESNIES
Indonesia Low Carbon Society Vision of 2050 In Energy Sector February, 2010
Institut Teknologi Bandung (ITB) - Indonesia
Retno Gumilang Dewi Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) - Japan
Takuro Kobashi, Tatako Yakimaka Kyoto University - Japan
Yuzuru Matsuoka and Kei Gomi Mizuho Information & Research Institute - Japan
Tomoki Ehara National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) - Japan
Mikiko Kainuma and Junichiro Fujino UN University Institute of Advance Studies – Japan
Joni Jupesta and Manuverghese Mathai
Acknowledgment
POLICIES AND REGULATIONS
• There are numerous energy-‐climate policy iniCaCves, regulaCons, and acCons in energy sector that could result in CO2 emission reducCon.
• The latest policy iniCaCve is non-‐binding emission reducCon target of 26% lower than baseline in 2020 using domesCc budget and further increased to 41% with internaConal support.
• To implement non-‐binding commitment, GOI prepares NaConal AcCons Plan 2010 -‐2020 to Reduce CO2 Emissions.
• In addiCon to the policy iniCaCves, most acCons plan developed for achieving the LCS target will sCll need policy measures to support the implementaCons of these acCons:
a. Increasing share of new/renewable energy and less carbon emitting fuels (include less carbon emitting technology) in energy supply mix to support implementation of PerPres No. 5/2006.
b. On-going programs considered to meet energy supply mix target are power generation crash program I and II (which include clean coal and geothermal), kerosene to LPG, mandatory of bio-fuel utilization in transport, power, and industry (MEMR 32/2008);
c. Increasing share of new/renewable (hydro, geothermal) and oil switch to natural gas as stated in the National Plan of Electricity Development (RUPTL) PLN 2008 - 2018;
d. Regulations that lead to the formulation of national master plan on energy efficiency;
e. Policies to support MRT development, diversification of fuels (CNG/ LPG, bio-fuel, electricity) in transportation, and emissions monitoring and control of local emission and combustion efficiency that has implication to the CO2 emissions generation.
Policy measures to support the implementations of these actions:
