1

S&T Foresight and S&T policy

in Japan

Tomoaki WADA National Institute of Science and Technology Policy

MEXT, JAPAN

January 2010

2

Contents

1. Science and Technology Foresight

2. Science and Technology Policy

Basic Research

Green Innovation

Fostering S&T Human Resources

3

Now 2025

Japan as a highly aged society

・Population

・Elder/Young

128 million 121 million

Source: National Institute of Population and Social Security

Research

1/4

※Elder: aged over 65, Young: aged 15-64

Megatrends

1/2

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

1920 1930 1940 1947 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055

(Year)

(Unit: 10,000)

2008, 127.57 million

2000, 127.77 million

1967, 100.24 million (Exceeded 100 million for the first time)

1920, 55.96 million (first population census conducted)

2055, 89.99 million 15 to 64

0 to 14

65+

Actual figures Estimated

figures

Year-to-Year Change in Japan’s Population

4

Science and Technology Basic Plan

History

March 1994

S&T Committee of LDP started discussions

Oct 1995

4 Parties jointly submitted the bill to the Diet.

Nov 1995

S&T Basic Law was approved by the Diet.

Content

(1) Guidelines for promotion of S&T

(2) Responsibilities of Government and Municipalities

(3) Establishing S&T Basic Plan and preparing necessary fund to promote it

(4) Measures to be implemented by the government, including fostering S&T personnel and construction of research facilities

5

S&T Administrative Strructure in Japan

- 2000 2001 -

STC CSTPCoordination

Planning

Implementation

Ministries Ministries Planning

Implementation

Prioritization

National

Policy

Bottom up Top down

Bottom up

6

Development of National Foresight in Japan

• Strong prioritization

• Top-down decision making

• Link between S&T policy and

foresight

• Strong prioritization

• Top-down decision making

• Link between S&T policy and

foresight

• Transition phase

• Moderate link between S&T

policy and foresight

• Transition phase

• Moderate link between S&T

policy and foresight

• Catch up process

• Bottom-up decision making

• Consensus among sector

• Catch up process

• Bottom-up decision making

• Consensus among sector

1970-80s

1990s

2000-

1971 The 1st Technology Foresight

1977 The 2nd Technology Foresight

1982 The 3rd Technology Foresight

1987 The 4th Technology Foresight

1992 The 5th Technology Foresight

1997 The 6th Technology Foresight

2001 The 7th Technology Foresight

2005 The 8th Foresight

Delphi

Multi-methodology

S&T Basic Law

The 1st S&T Basic Plan

The 2nd S&T Basic Plan

The 3rd S&T Basic Plan

1995

1996-2000

2001-2005

2006 - 2010

Foresight

Delphi

Delphi

Delphi

Delphi

Delphi

Delphi

With Review ProgramInnovation 25

Development of S&T Policy

2009 The 9th Foresight• Prioritization ?

• Style of decision making ?

• Necessity of foresight ?

• Prioritization ?

• Style of decision making ?

• Necessity of foresight ??

2010-

????

Political Shift

Central Government Reform

-

7

History of Japanese Delphi Survey

NO. Survey Year Fields Topics Experts

1 1970-71 5 644 2482

2 1976 7 656 1316

3 1981-82 13 800 1727

4 1986 17 1071 2007

5 1991 16 1149 2385

6 1996 14 1072 3586

7 2000 16 1065 3106

8 2004 13 858 2239Delphi, Scenario,

Bibliometrics,

Needs analysis

Experts= Respondents (2 cycles of the questionnaires)

8

Evaluation of Early Survey at 2004

4th Delphi (1986)

9

Design of the 8th foresight program

Improved Delphi and Complementary three others

Objective

Extrapolative

Subjective

Normative

Delphi Survey

Bibliometric

Analysis

Scenario Analysis

Socio-

economic

Needs

Analysis

Science

（Basic research）Technology

(Application)

Society

（Impact）

Subjective

Normative

Delphi Survey

Bibliometric

Analysis

Scenario Analysis

Socio-

economic

Needs

Analysis

Science

（Basic research）Technology

(Application)

Society

（Impact）

Database analysis

to find rapidly-

developing areas

Scenario writing

in individual view

Needs list through

participatory process

Improvement

with new approaches

Not only Technology, but also Science and Social

Wider variety of participants

Multi - methodology Foresight

needs

10

What is Delphi?:

“Converged Opinions by Experts” • The name “Delphi” is taken from the location of the

Temple of Apollo in ancient Greece, where the gods were said to visit the Oracle in order to have their futures told

• Originally developed by RAND corporation, USA in the1950s

• Intuitive (qualitative) and quantitative: opinion survey to a large number of experts repeated at least twice

• Encouraged exchange of opinions among experts toward convergence

• Useful for long-term foresight where opinions of experts are only source available

11

What is Delphi?: convergence

• Repeated the same set of questions to the

same group of experts

– At the second round or later

• Feedback from previous round

• Chance for respondents to re-think their judgments

• Some respondents change their judgments,

seeing how far their opinions correspond with

others’.

12

Information and communications

Electronics

Life sciences

Health, medical care and welfare

Agriculture, forestry, fisheries and food

Space, marine and earth sciences

Energy and resources

Environment

Nanotechnology and

materials

Manufacturing

Industrial infrastructure

Social infrastructure

Science and technology

for society Field: Information

and communications

Topics: An administration system for networks with about 1,000 users that

can automatically connect terminals and operate networks with no need

for a network administrator.

Overview of the 8th Delphi Survey

Area: Ubiquitous networking

Survey 13 fields including 130 areas and 858 topics

13

Survey Flow Chart

14

技術的実現時期と社会的適用時期のギャップ

0

5

10

15

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Time of technological realizaiton (year)

Ga

p (

ye

ars

)

informatio/communicationselectornicslife sciencehealth/medical care/welfareAgriculture/forestry/fisheries/foodSpace/marine/earht scienceEnergy/resourcesEnvironmentNanotech/materialsManufacturingIndustrial infrastructureSocial infrastructureS&T for society

Innovative nuclear power systems

New information and

communications principlesBasic technology

for manned space

activity

Regenerative medical science

Nano devices and sensors

NEMS technology

Environmental and ecological biology

Clean-use technology for

fossil resources

Example in new Delphi approaches:

Time lag to Social realization

Time of Technological Realization (yr)

Tim

e la

g to

So

cia

l re

aliz

atio

n

=

In

no

va

tio

n G

ap

(y

rs)

15

Topic Area Year

A highly reliable network system capable of protecting the privacy and secrecy of individuals and groups from intrusion by malicious hackers.

Information security 2012 / 2016

Generalized technology, extended from total building management systems and home security systems, which is coupled with seismic detection systems so that the safety of human life can be ensured before seismic waves arrive, in an earthquake whose epicenter is distant.

Information security 2012 / 2020

Technology to detect intrusions and viruses on the Internet backbone. Information security 2009 / 2013

Capability of tracing back the source address of suspect packet in the Internet to detect intrusions. Information security 2009 / 2013

Forecasts of diseases and disasters through advanced modeling and simulation technologies for large-scale ecological, environmental, or other systems.

High-productivity computing

2015 / 2023

Theory for designing the stringency of a system's security and privacy protection Information security 2012 / 2018

In Japan, all patient charts, including relevant video, are digitized and maintained by individual patients, and inspection and other data are shared among all medical institutions, leading to the emergence of health care agents, who intermediate between patients and medical institutions.

Information technology for developing social systems

- / 2016

Telemedicine in which a doctor performs diagnosis over the Internet based on the patient's medical data obtained at home, and provides treatment if standard instruction and prescription are applicable.

Information technology for developing social systems

- / 2015

A global traceability system that covers a majority of foods. Information technology for developing social systems

2011 / 2019

The emergence of equipment, including a software modem, that supports almost all media such as digital broadcasting, high-speed mobile communications, wireless LANs, and wired access leads to the widespread use of cross-media services, which allow for concurrent access to multiple media and automatically choose the optimum medium for the situation, to control and coordinate home gateways in households.

Very large scale information processing

2011 / 2015

Emerging Technology in “Information & Communications”

“Important topics” Top 10

: Information Security : IT for Social System

: High-productivity computing

16

Area: Ubiquitous networking

Elementary

technology

(sensor

system)

Communication

and network

technology

Application to

medical care

Example : Technology trajectory

A system to allow ad hoc communication between wireless

information terminals within a certain range

An administration system for networks with about 1,000

users that can automatically connect terminals and operate

networks with no need for a network administrator.

Technology that allows objects to recognize mutual

presence, nature, and condition so that they can

automatically avoid dangerous situations and work in a

coordinated manner.A micro communications chip or sensor that can run semi-

permanently, powered by heat, light, radio waves, or noise.

Technology to manage ID of an infinite number of

constantly emerging or disappearing objects, organize the

definition and information of each ID assigned, and

automatically remove obsolete data.

Technology to allow many small single-function robots to

cooperate and share tasks to achieve more complex

functionality.

A medical chip that can be embedded in the human body

and run semi-permanently powered by bioenergy sources

such as body heat or blood flow, providing vital function

support such as health condition monitoring and heart

pacemakers.Medical technology based on nanochips and microsensors

that have external communications and control capabilities

and can be embedded in the human body or move through

blood vessels.

2025 2030 20352005 2010 2015 2020

17

Index in I

ncre

ased inte

llectu

al assets

Index in Economic & Social impacts

Change in Impact Index

in “Electronics” beyond 2015

until 2015

Optical and photonic devices

Wireless electronics

Bioelectronics

Molecular and

organic electronics

Storage

Displays

Energy conversion/

storage devices

Digital home appliances

Security electronics

Robot

electronics

Ubiquitous

electronics

Car electronics

Network

electronics

Integrated systems

Silicon electronics

18

Scenario Analysis

Dr. Kazuhiro KOSUGELife support robotics

Dr. Norihiro HAGITA

Dr. Heisuke HIRONAKA

Dr. Akira MIYAMOTO

Dr. Masao DOIMaterials design through computer simulation

Dr. Hiroshi TANAKA

Dr. Ken-ichi ARAINew healthcare that meets individual needs

Dr. Peter FRANKLProgress of studies in mathematics and mathematical education

Dr. Kazuhiro KOSUGELife support robotics

Dr. Norihiro HAGITA

Dr. Heisuke HIRONAKA

Dr. Akira MIYAMOTO

Dr. Masao DOIMaterials design through computer simulation

Dr. Hiroshi TANAKA

Dr. Ken-ichi ARAINew healthcare that meets individual needs

Dr. Peter FRANKLProgress of studies in mathematics and mathematical education

Themes:47 themes

Writers:2 experts selected by co-

nomination to each theme

Scenarios:85 scenarios

<Examples>

Analyze the present state

Write a scenario

Actions (Strategy & tactics)

Analyze the present state

Write a scenario

Actions (Strategy & tactics)

written by experts with deep insight. normative and subjective. schematic future image with time scale.

19

Example of Scenarios

Theme 20: Life support robotics

Dr. Norihiro Hagita, Intelligent Robotics and Communication Laboratories,

Advanced Telecommunications Research Institute International

Strategy 1: Connecting various robots to network information and communications infrastructure is the top priority.

Strategy 2: Power-assist technology should be given priority for advancement.

Strategy 3:Take initiatives on social intelligence (communication with human beings) rather than on individual intelligence.

In particular, Japan should establish initiatives to actively advance collaborative research in social science, cognitive science, brain science, and other research fields related to robot-human interaction (research on social intelligence-utilizing robots)

Actions Japan should take

<Development scenario>

The development of lifestyle support robotics will be at Stage 1 from now until about 2015, with technology for “mechanical robots” and “communications robots” developing separately. Beginning about 2016, Stage 2 will likely see the development of integrated technology. Development during Stage 1 is likely to progress as follows.

Single-function household robots

→ Upgrading of functions through networks

→ Coordinated service by networked robots

Stage 1

(Now through 2015) Stage 2

(2016–2030)

Mechanical robots

Communications robots

Lifestyle support robots Life support Robotics

20

Contribution of the 8th Foresight results to the discussion for The 3rd Basic Plan

1. Enhancement of intellectual assets a: Contribution to enhancing intellectual assets

in the interested area itself

b: Contribution to progress of other areas

2. Economic effects c: Contribution to development in existing

industries

d: Contribution to creating new industries and

businesses

3. Social effects e: Contribution to securing safety and security

f: Contribution to improving quality of life and

social vitality

Measure for evaluation: Large (10), Largish (7.5),

Moderate (5), Small (2.5), None (0)

Total impacts of 8 prioritized fields

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 7.5 8.0

Socio-economic Impact

S&

T I

mp

act

Life sciences

Information and telecommunications

The environmental sciences

Nanotechnology & materials science/technology

Energy

Manufacturing technology

Infrastructure

Frontier -outer space and the oceans

Others

*1: Impacts of each field are evaluated by average of areas which belong to the interested field.

*2: Radius of each circle shows the number of areas with top 1/3 total impacts in each field

Delphi Survey

Medium term

(2015-2025)

Current time

(-2015)

21

High-accuracy rainfall prediction (2019)

A miniature analysis as on-the-spot checking (2019)

Prediction of big earthquakes in 5-10 ys (2021)

A wide-area disaster monitoring and safe evacuation guidance (2018)

Automotive system (2016)

A highly reliable network (2016)

Detection of danger in public space (2020)

Food traceability (2019)

System to prevent road accidents (2018)

Disaster rescue robot (2020)

Example Image of Future society

in a view of “Disaster prevention and safety”

( year ) : Social realization time

in Delphi results

22

Finland

Japan

• 40 years history of foresight activities

• Periodical survey - Improved Delphi survey, - widely coverage of S&T fields, - participation of many experts

• Stronger linkage with policy making process after 2000

• Multi-methodology type of foresight at the last(8th) (2003-04)

• Embedded technology foresights in mid-term evaluation

linking with Finnish Innovation policy

• Success of FinSight 2015 (2006)

- Impact on Finnish business/industry and society

Finland – Japan Collaborative Research

History in foresight activities

Development for new approach in methodology

→ Exchange of different type of experiences

23

Finland – Japan Collaborative Research (2007-08)

Theme B

Panel discussion

Theme A

Panel discussion

Selection three themes

Scenario

by individual

Theme C

Panel discussion

Workshop

Comparison of two countries at Workshop

at each country

Trial for new type of foresight

integrating some methods

Organizers： Tekes (Finland), NISTEP (Japan)

Scenario

by individual

Scenario

by individual

Mini size Delphi

Theme A ： Healthcare and wellbeing to prepare

for aged society

Theme B ： Consumers, media and digital convergence

Theme C ： Recycling society for sustainable environment

Summarized

as each report

Workshop Workshop

Joint Report （Summary）

Similar image

for the future

24

Coupling and mixing of two types of interdisciplinary subcommittees

extending beyond existing fields

Discussion by 4 Targets 12 Interdisciplinary Subcommittees

Dis

cussio

n b

y t

arg

et

Inte

rdis

cip

linary

dis

cu

ssio

n

inclu

din

g m

em

be

rs o

f

hu

ma

nitie

s a

nd

so

cia

l scie

nce

s

Security

Safety

(Int’l) cooperation

(Int’l) competition

Cross-field discussion of science and technology

Interdisciplinary discussion

across the fields

topics Region

＋

First stage for the 9th foresight

Delphi survey, Scenario writing etc. in 2009

Discussion for grand challenges

in Japan and in other developed countries

Second stage

25

Foresight

○ Japan has continued foresight program for around 40 years.

The basic concept has been “ important S&T issues in the next 30

years” and “society derived from their benefits”.

○ NISTEP has tried to foresee what the next should be. We are

now discussing about direction in innovation policy and S&T policy

in the world and about key points for the next S&T Basic Policy in

Japan.

26 26

Aiming to be an advanced science-

and technology-oriented nation

●Increase in governmental R&D expenditure

The total budget for governmental R&D expenditure exceeded 17 trillion yen.

●Construction of new R&D system

・Increase in competitive research funds ・Support plan for 10,000 post-doctoral fellows (including Ph.D students) ・Promotion of industry-academia-government collaboration ・Implementation of evaluation systems etc.

●Three basic ideas

(i) Creation of wisdom (ii) Vitality from wisdom (iii)Sophisticated society by

wisdom

●Key policies

・Strategic priority setting in S&T －Promotion of basic

researches －Prioritization of R&D on

national/social subjects ・S&T system reforms －Doubling of competitive

research funds －Enhancement of industry-

academia-government collaboration

・Total budget :24 trillion yen ・30 Nobel laureates within 50

years

●Review of the 1st and 2nd plans

(1)The 1st and 2nd S&T Basic Plans have

solidified the foundation of S&T in Japan.

(2)“Mega-competition for knowledge” that

Japan faces involves not only the United

States and Europe but also Asian

nations such as Korea and China.

●Highlight

Science and Technology Basic Law （enacted in 1995）

How to nurture creative S&T personnel?

Further reform of S&T systems, leading to higher performance irrespective of Japanese serious situation due to limited resources

Our decision for future: stronger emphasis on the role of

“Wisdom”

Investment under the Basic Plan

Approx. 25 trillion yen

27

28

Prime Minister

Dr. Yukio HATOYAMA

Mr. Naoto KAN

Deputy Prime Minister

Minister of Finance

Minister of State for Economic and Fiscal Policy

Mr. Hirofumi HIRANO

Chief Cabinet Secretary

Mr. Tatsuo KAWABATA

Minister of Education, Culture,

Sports, Science and Technology

Minister of State for Science and Technology Policy

Doctor of Engineering

Bachelor of Science

Bachelor of

Engineering

Master of

Engineering

29

Discussion between PM Hatoyama and

Nobel Prize Winners ( Nov. 2009)

Nobel Prize Laureates;

“What matters in science is generating new ideas making all-out efforts to come out on top in a certain field.”

“If we are satisfied with second place, we can end up 30th place. If we only copy, it means we do nothing.”

30

Science and Technology

in Basic Policy of “New Growth Strategy”

by the Government (Dec.2009)

Basic research and new frontier research

Independent research environments and various career paths for young researchers

Outstanding environment in terms of research fund, research support and life conditions to attract researchers all over the world.

Government-Industry collaboration and venture business creation

Increasing Japan total R&D investment to more than 4% of GDP by 2020

Green innovation in environment/energy area

Life innovation in medical and nursing-care area

Increasing the number of universities and laboratories at the world top level and aiming to achieve full employment of the doctoral course graduates in science and engineering fields by 2020

( Major Items)

31

Prime policy issue: promoting green innovation to strike a balance between environment and economy,

and to achieve “the reduction of CO2 emission by 25 % by 2020 comparing with the level of 1990 if all major economies agree on ambitious targets” 1)Diffusing highly-energy-effective technology worldwide 2)Accelerating innovation in R&D in solar cell and so forth 3)Inventing breakthrough technology by discovery and integration of new S&T findings

Prioritized missions: promoting S&T measures to pursue the followings;

1)Health and longevity society 2)Regional S&T measures 3)Pioneering Projects for Accelerating Social Return 4)Innovation 5)Science and Technology Diplomacy

Challenges to support prime policy issue and prioritized missions :

1)Reinforcement of basic research 2)Reinforcement of human resources development 3)Reinforcement of production and security of intellectual property

New resource allocation policy

The science and technology-related budget allocation policy for FY2010

32

35,723

20,226 21,347 22,663 23,58524,995

28,10530,026 30,322

31,56732,860 34,685 35,444 35,974 36,084 35,779 35,743 35,113

35,708 35,444

9,449

1,037

5,490

97

6,854 1,555

11,314

6,038 4,676

6,081

3,238

41 305 375 1,451 1,1752,400

35,723

20,226

22,384

28,153

23,682

31,849

29,66030,026

41,636

37,605 37,536

40,766

38,682

36,015 36,389 36,15537,194

36,288

38,108

46,414

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

（100 mil Govt. S&T Budgets have been leveling off

Trend of Japanese S&T Budget

（3rd supplementary budget）

（2nd supplementary budget）

（1st supplementary budget）

（initial budget）

Before Basic Plan

12.6 tril yen

1st Basic Plan

17.6 tril yen

2nd Basic Plan

18.8 tril yen

2nd Basic Plan (include local budgets)

accumulated amount 21.1tril yen

3rd Basic Plan

24tril yen 25tril yen

FY1991 FY1992 FY1993 FY1994 FY1995 FY1996 FY1997 FY1998 FY1999 FY2000 FY2001 FY2002 FY2003 FY2004 FY2005 FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010

33

R&D Expenditure in Japan in 2006

Industry

University

Governmental

Organization

Basic

Research

Applied

Research

Development

X 0.1 Billion Yen R&D Expenditure in 2006

34

Purpose： To ascertain the evolving nature of science

Method： Clustering scientific papers using co-citation relation

and analyzing those correlations, based on a database comprising scientific papers.

Applications:

・ Identify “hot” research areas in science

・ Tracking the changing nature of research areas

Object for content analysis

Construction of Research Areas using database of scientific papers

（Science Map 2006）

Highly cited papers

Research fronts

Research areas

2nd clustering

1st clustering

Highly cited papers

Research fronts

Research areas

2nd clustering

1st clustering共引用関係による第一段階クラスタリング

共引用関係による第二段階クラスタリン

高被引用度論文

(約５万1千件)

リサーチフロント(5538)

研究領域（687）

Hydrogen

absorption

to CNTs

CNTs synthesis

methods

Basic and application

research on carbon

nanotubes

Selected Research Areas (124)

Other Research Areas (563)

Frequently cited papers

(approximately 51,000)

Research Fronts (5538)

Research Areas

(687)

1st clustering using co-citation relationship

2nd clustering using co-citation relationship

Mechanical

characteristic

of CNTs

35 Note: Whole count method is applied for calculation of paper share. Blue indicates 5% of paper share, and red means more than 30% of paper share. Source: Compiled by NISTEP based on “Essential Science Indicators” published by Thomson Scientific.

Science Map 2006 Depicting the scientific activity of Japan

Share of papers 0.30 Or more

Innate immunity (ID108, 38%)

Ghrelin / function and pathophysiological significance (ID15, 34%)

Construction of artificial photosynthesis model mimicking antenna system and charge separation system (ID80, 80%)

Brane cosmology from the perspective of duality of anti de sitter space and conformal field theory (ID65, 35%)

Superconductive properties of magnesium diboride and its application (ID53, 27%)

High-temperature superconductivity spectroscopy / new electron phase (ID58, 44%)

36

Each circle: Single RF

– Red circles: Hot RFs

– Yellow circles: New RFs (emerged in 2002)

– Radius: Number of citing papers

The relative locations of circles reflect how strongly they are linked to one another (Only the strongest are shown)

ID106_Molecular imaging using GFP

Science Map 2002 (1997-2002)

112

833

888

1095

1175

3457

Material

Methodology

Methodology

Researches using GFP

Researches using GFP

Researches using GFP

Science Map 2004 (1999-2004)

ID79_Supersymmetry and CP violation

The 2008 Nobel Prize in Physics and Chemistry

1377

1380

1428

1451

1500

1503

1521

1541

2637

2736

3549

3552

3562

3635

4156

4157

4424

5211

5850

6039

CP violation in B meson

CP violation

in K meson

Dark matter

Supersymmetry theory

Muon anomalous magnetic moment

Higgs boson search

37 Electro

n/P

ositro

n Lin

ac

bypass

Positron

electron

electron

Electron

/ Po

sitron

B Factory is an electron-positron collider. The KEK B factory experiment （Belle) was initiated in 1999. Using a large data sample that corresponds to an integrated luminosity of ~0.8 ab⁻¹ or 900 million B anti-B meson pairs, which is the highest value in the world, the Belle experiment has verified the Kobayashi -Maskawa theory that explains CP violation and quark mixing in the weak interaction. This research eventually led to a Nobel prize for Kobayashi and Maskawa in 2008.

B Factory

38

J-PARC Project

＋ － E

＋

accelerated proton

target

（metal such as mercury）

pion muon

neutrino

kao

n

anti-proton

neutron

Chronology of J-PARC

Construction start in 2001

Neutron production at MLF in May 2008

Muon production at MLF in September

2008

Completion of J-PARC construction at

end of 2008

Experiment at the hadron facility in 2009.

Experiment at the neutrinos facility in

2009.

Budget in FY2009: 15,220MYen

○J-PARC is one of the world largest accelerator-driven

secondary particle sources (neutron, muon, pion, kaon,

neutrino, etc.), providing a broad base for research and

development from basic science to industrial development.

○J-PARC is a joint project between Japan Atomic Energy

Agency (JAEA) and High Energy Accelerator Research

Organization (KEK).

J-PARC :Japan Proton Accelerator Research Complex

J-PARC is located in Tokai-mura, Ibaraki-ken,

(120km North East from Tokyo)

50-GeV Synchrotron （KEK) Hadron Facility （KEK)

Materials and Life

Science Facility (MLF)

3-GeV

Synchrotron

（JAEA)

LINAC

（JAEA)

Neutrinos

Facility

（KEK)

（JAEA)

39

Science Program of the J-PARC

Neutrons are also a good

probe for life sciences, for

developing new medicines and

conquering intractable

diseases.

Materials and Life

Science

Li-battery, hydrogen-

absorbing materials,

new superconductors,

etc

Origin of Matter

・ Mystery of the origin of mass

Why do hadrons have much greater mass

than free quarks?

・ Particle/anti-particle asymmetry beyond

Kobayashi-Maskawa Theory

Asymmetries in quark and lepton sectors

Hadron

physics

Example of Li-buttery

J-PARC

Protein

structure

Neutron and

Muon Kaon, Pion,

Proton,

Muon

Discover unknown properties of neutrinos by precise measurement of “neutrino oscillation” and find clues to: Fundamental law of elementary particles Origin of matter

Neutrino Experiment: T2K

Neutrin

o

Li

O

Mn

Li

O

X-Ray Neutron

Li

O

Mn

Li

O

X-Ray Neutron

Neutrons and

muons are good

probes for revealing

the functions of

material structure

Primary goal is to discover μ neutrino to electron neutrino oscillation

J-PARC offers the world’s highest

pulsed neutrons and muons.

Biological

structure analysis

apparatus

Muon

experiments

have revealed a

new aspect of

super-conductor

(CaFeCoAsF)!

Magnetic

phase

Superconductin

g phase (Island)

Kamioka

（295ｋｍ）

Electron

neutrino Tokai -------------- to --------------

m

neutrino

J-

PARC

Super

Kamiokande

40

○Topics Interdisciplinary field of basic research ○5 centers were selected in FY2007 Period: 10～15 years（evaluated every 5 yrs) Funds： Y500 mil -2 bil, average 1.4 bil yen ○Attractive research environment of top international standard ・Director with strong leadership ・Rigorous evaluation system & rewards based on the evaluation results ・English as the primary language for work ○Excellent research level ・Establish critical mass of outstanding researchers

Tohoku University

Advanced Institute for Materials Research (AIMR)

NIMS International Center for Materials Nanoarchitectonics (MANA)

Kyoto University

Institute for Integrated Cell-

Material Sciences (iCeMS)

Osaka University Immunology Frontier Research Center (IFReC)

World Premier International Research Center (WPI) Initiative

Tokyo University

The Institute for the

Physics and

Mathematics of the

Universe (IPMU)

In order to enhance the level of science and technology in Japan and continuously trigger innovation that serves as

a catalyst for future growth, it is necessary to boost the nation’s basic research capabilities. To this end, Japan needs

to create centers where the world’s finest minds meet and superb human resources flourish, thereby generating

outstanding research results.

Aimed at establishing “ globally visible research centers” with excellent research environment that attract the world’s top researchers.

Background

Outlines

Implementing World Premier International Research Center

41

Japan’s stance for COP15

• Japan aims to reduce its CO2 emissions by 25% by 2020 from the 1990 level.

• Japan would provide assistance to developing countries worth approx. 15 billion US dollars in total up to 2012, including 11 billion in public financing.

• These are premised upon the establishment of a fair and effective international framework by all major economies and agreement on ambitious targets.

42

Expanding Advanced Technologies

to Reduce Global Emissions

43

Overview of Measures for Green Innovation

R&D for new energy technology (developing next-generation high efficiency photovoltaic generation system) (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry: METI)

Accelerating innovation in R&D in solar cells, etc.

Silicon thin Film cell

c-Si solar cell

Copper-Indium selenide solar cell

Compound electricity storage system technology (METI) - Developing efficient and effective storage systems for expansion of photovoltaic generation’s

Diffusing highly energy-efficient technology worldwide

US-Japan cooperation on energy and environmental technology research and standardization (METI) - Reducing CO2 by establishing and diffusing of energy and environmental technologies based on US-Japan collaborative research and standardization plan

Inventing breakthrough technology by discovery and integration of new S&T findings

Developing advanced low-carbon technology (MEXT) - Promoting new technology and establishment of principles that contribute to GHG reduction, and aiming at breakthroughs by integration of S&T findings

44

Green Innovation

Green Innovation

Environment & Energy Technology

Innovation Social Innovation

Lifestyle “Mottainai” Revitalizing forestry and agriculture Creating green industry

Diffusion of practical technologies R&D for innovative and state-of- the-art technologies Aid for developing countries

(Hatoyama Initiative)

45

1st/32countries

Japanese

students are

moving

down of the

list of PISA

and TIMSS

on

scholastic

ability of

arithmetic /

mathematic

and science.

Although

they are still

high-ranking.

※TIMSS‥Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study

※IEA‥The International Association for the Evaluation of Educational Achievement

※surveyed object : Forth graders and eighth graders

ＴＩＭＳＳ(surveyed by ＩＥＡ）

Results of Arithmetic / Mathematics and sciences

‘03 ‘95

Arithmetic

Mathematic in junior

high school

3rd/25countries

2nd/26countries

3rd/25countries

5rd/46countries

＜Japan＞

‘03 ‘95

Science in

elementary school 3th/25countries 5th/38countries

Science in junior

high school 6th/46countries 4th/38countries

ＰＩＳＡ (surveyed by OECD)

※PISA‥Programme for International Student Assessment

※surveyed object : Tenth graders

Average score

‘03 ‘00

Mathematical literacy

Scientific literacy

6th/41countries,areas

2nd/32countrie

s

2nd/41countries,areas

＜Japan＞

How is the Score ?! (PISA and TIMSS)

‘06

10th/57countries,areas

6nd/57countries,areas

‘07 ‘07

4rd/37countries

5rd/50countries

4th/37countries

3th/50countries

46

Compared with the

average, the ratio of

students who think

studying is fun is

remarkably low in

Japan.

７８% ６７% International average

５８% ３９% Japan (Junior high school students)

Science Math

The ratio of students who

like studying math and

science tends to be

smaller at higher grades.

30

40

50

60

70

5th 6th 7th 8th 9th

math science

Do you think math and science are fun ?

TIMSS 2007 %

4th

80

20

47

Ⅱ Enhance literacy on Science and Technology

Science Education Policy

in the 3rd Science and Technology Basic Plan

(FY2006-FY2010)

Ⅰ Enhance Science Education

1．Increase the number of children who like

science and mathematics

2．Develop individuality and ability of students

who have strong interest in science and

mathematics

48

Super Science High Schools (SSHs)

Japan Science and

Technology Agency

(JST)

Super Science High Schools

(SSHs)

• Foster next generation of scientists and engineers

• Provide enriched science curricula in selected high schools 106 SSHs all over Japan in 2009 (designated by MEXT)

Implementing enriched curricula in science, technology and math

(plenty of observations and experiments/ own free study theme with research presentations )

Cooperation between SSHs and universities (having contact with top researchers)

English-oriented programs

Cooperation between SSHs and foreign science-oriented high schools

Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports,

Science and Technology (MEXT)

Universities

Research institutes

Enterprises

Designation

Support

High schools in foreign countries

(emphasis on science and

mathematics education)

FY2009 estimated budget / 1,487million yen

(FY2008 government budget / 1,480million yen )

49

Researchers in Japan

• Total number of researchers in Japan, as of March 31st, 2007

– 826,600 、increase for 6 years continuously breakdown

• Business Enterprises 483,300 (58%)

• Non-profit inst. / Public org. 42,000 (5%)

• Universities 301,200 (37%)

“Researcher” is carrying out research on the specific theme, and who has

been graduate from university (excluding junior college). Doctoral course student is

also counted as a researcher.

50

Changes

in index

Q1

6-1 the environment which allows the young researchers to

have autonomy and the field of activities

insu

ffic

ien

t

suff

icie

nt

0.81

Q1

2 whether people who have desired ability choose to be a

Ph. D candidate

do

no

t ch

oo

se

Ch

oo

se

-0.48

Q1

3 the environment which support people who have desired

ability choose to be a Ph. D candidate

insu

ffic

ien

t

suff

icie

nt

0.12

Q1

4

measures for establishing the environment which allows

Ph. D holders to select their career from a variety of

choices insu

ffic

ien

t

suff

icie

nt

-0.07

106 7 8 9Question

index

0 1 2 3 4 5

3.6(271)

2.2(264)

2.0(277)

2.9(223)

3.2(242)

2.2(227)

1.9(232)

3.3(186)

3.2(245)

2.3(231)

1.9(238)

4.0(108)

Current Status of Young Researchers

system

The survey results show that environment which allows young researchers to have autonomy and choose their

activities has been established. As reasons, the respondents pointed out the introduction of a tenure track

system and a new grants-in-aid program for scientific research for the young researchers.

On the other hand, there have been continuous recognition that human resources with desired ability do not

choose to be Ph. D candidate. Many respondents expressed their concerns about uncertainty of their career

path and introduction of a new intern system.

<HR>

51

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

1981 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05

専攻別入学者数の推移（博士課程）

理学 工学 農学

保健 その他

Number of Ph.D candidates

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

1981 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 2007

入学者数

万人

年度

人文科学

社会科学

理学

工学

農学

保健

その他

system

Number of entrants of PhD course in science, engineering, agriculture and health

(source) NISTEP Research Material No. 155 “Science and Technology Indicators – Data Updated in 2008 for

5th edition”

Note: The others include all kinds except arts, social science, science, engineering, agriculture,

health

<HR>

The number of joining PhD courses has been declining since 2003. The number majoring in science has been

rapidly declining since 2004

Number of new entrants of PhD course (by field)

the

nu

mb

er o

f ne

w e

ntran

ts

others

social science

arts

health

agriculture

engineering

science

the n

um

ber o

f entran

ts by field

(Ph

.D

cand

idates)

science

health

engineering agriculture

others

52

Occupation immediately after completing doctoral courses

(for all doctorates completed during FY 2002–2006)

14.7%

34.1%

15.8%

29.6%

8.0% 9.7% 7.2% 6.6%

11.1%

4.9%

10.4%

7.9%

13.4% 10.1% 15.8% 17.4%

7.9%

4.2%

5.7%

6.7%

6.0%

19.2% 13.0% 14.6%

16.3%

19.2%34.1%

25.0%

8.3%

3.3%5.1%

7.3%

13.5%

1.5%

43.0%

3.8% 4.5%5.4%

3.1%

1.2%

6.0%5.2%

6.6%

9.7% 10.9%7.8%

8.8%

6.0%

16.8% 17.8%14.4%

23.0% 22.1% 20.8% 17.5% 14.1%

34.9% 35.8% 32.9%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

All(n = 75197)

Physical sciences

(n = 9047)

Engineering(n = 17896)

Agricultural sciences

(n = 6055)

Health(n = 23155)

Humanities(n = 7023)

Social sciences

(n = 6960)

Other(n = 3439)

Unknown

Other

Position requiring specialist knowledge

Physician/dentist/veterinarian/pharmacist

Other R&D-related position

University faculty (other)

University faculty (full-time)

Postdoc

Among those who completed doctoral courses during FY 2002–2006,

approximately half took an R&D related position immediately after completion.

In physical sciences, engineering, and agricultural sciences, the percentages of

those taking an R&D related position were particularly high.

In physical sciences and agricultural sciences, the percentages becoming postdocs

were also high at around 30 percent each.

53

Current occupations of those taking postdoctoral positions

immediately after completion of doctoral courses

Some of those who become postdocs immediately after completing doctoral courses

were promoted to R&D related positions (especially university faculty, etc.) other than

postdoctoral positions. However, even after five years, a certain number of them remain

in postdoctoral positions.

23.1%27.3%

31.5%39.0%

46.7%

23.6%20.2%

16.5%11.5%

7.3%2.6%3.5%2.7%

3.4%2.7% 10.6%9.5%8.2%

7.4%5.5%

34.2%33.7%36.0%33.6%33.9%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

5 years(completed in FY 2002)(n = 1903)

4 years(completed in FY 2003)(n = 2181)

3 years(completed in FY 2004)(n = 2194)

2 years(completed in FY 2005)(n = 2298)

1 year(completed in FY 2006)(n = 2457)

Years since completion (as of April 2008)

Unknown

Other

Position requiring specialist knowledge

Physician/dentist/veterinarian/pharmacist

Other R&D-related position

University faculty (other)

University faculty (full-time)

Postdoc

54

Ratio of Female Researchers

• The ratio & the number of female

researchers have been increasing

• However, the ratio of female

researchers in Japan is much lower

than the international average

85,255

114,942

13.0%

10.8%

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

18.0%

20.0%女性研究者数

研究者に占める女性の割合

人

Source: “Results of the Survey of Research and

Development “ by Ministry of Internal Affairs and

Communications (MIC) Source: White Paper on Gender Equality 2008 by

Cabinet Office June 2008

the number of female researchers

the ratio of female researchers

（％）

International comparison

of the percentage of

female researchers

55

Reasons why the Number of Female

Researchers is small

• It is difficult to keep a

work-life balance,

and to return to work

after a child-care

leave.

• Women prefer

different occupations

to men

17.9%21.5%

26.2%22.0%

27.3%

17.9%

26.4%

20.6%15.7%

5.4%

19.9% 19.5%16.4%

18.6%

6.0%

26.3%

8.1%

53.6%

30.4%

6.2%2.6%

25.0%

35.2%

26.9%

33.9% 34.2% 35.1% 36.2% 36.0%

3.3%

12.5%16.4%

6.5%

25.7%

33.6%

17.4%

46.6%

1.5%4.1%5.3%

18.9%

66.2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

教育環境

家庭環境

職場環境

社会の偏見

男女の社会的分業

ロールモデルが少な

い

男性に比

べて採用が少な

い

業績評価にお

いて育児

・介護

等に対する配慮がな

い

評価者に男性を優先する意識

がある

男女の能力の差

男女の適性の差

男性の比率が高

い

研究職

・技術職のイメージが

よくな

い

将来像が不透明

給料が少な

い

労働時間が長

い

役職につきにくい

家庭と仕事の両立が困難

育児期間後の復帰が困難

その他

回答なし

男性

女性

source：Large scale survey on gender-equal status in the field of science-engineering profession FY 2007

図：「将来就きたい職」

図：女性研究者が少ない理由

ed

uca

tion

al

fam

ily c

ircu

msta

nce

s

ba

ckg

rou

nd

offic

e e

nviro

nm

en

t

pre

jud

ice

of th

e s

ocie

ty

job

se

pa

ratio

n b

etw

ee

n m

en

an

d

wo

me

n in

the

so

cie

ty

a s

ma

ller n

um

be

r of ro

le m

od

els

a s

ma

ller n

um

be

r of a

va

ilab

le

po

sitio

ns c

om

pa

red

to m

en

La

ck o

f un

de

rsta

nd

ing

in th

e

wo

rkp

lace

or th

ose

wh

o n

ee

to a

kin

g c

are

Wo

rkin

g p

lace

for th

ose

wh

o

nsid

ere

d a

t the

time

of

Are

takin

g c

are

of k

ids, th

e e

lde

rs

an

eva

lua

tor te

nd

s to

gra

nt

hig

he

r sco

res to

me

n

diffe

ren

ce

s in

ab

ility

be

twe

en

me

n a

nd

wo

me

n

diffe

ren

ce

s in

ap

titud

e

be

twe

en

me

n a

nd

wo

me

n

hig

he

r ratio

of m

en

ne

ga

tive

ima

ge

s o

f rese

arc

he

rs

an

d e

ng

ine

ers

un

ce

rtain

ima

ge

of th

e fu

ture

low

sa

lary

lon

ge

r wo

rkin

g h

ou

rs

diffic

ult to

ge

t a m

an

ag

em

en

t

po

sitio

n

diffic

ult to

ke

ep

wo

rk-life

ba

lan

ce

diffic

ult to

retu

rn to

a jo

b a

fter a

ch

ild-c

are

lea

ve

oth

ers

no

resp

on

se

ma

na

gin

g a

lab

at a

u

niv

ers

ity

en

ga

gin

g in

rese

arc

h

at a

un

ive

rsity

ma

na

gin

g a

lab

at a

priv

ate

co

mp

an

y

en

ga

gin

g in

rese

arc

h a

t a

priv

ate

co

mp

an

y

takin

g a

role

in m

an

ag

ing

a

co

mp

an

y

wo

rkin

g a

t a c

om

pa

ny

tea

ch

er

po

licy m

ake

r

en

trep

ren

eu

r

scie

nce

jou

rna

list

no

ide

a

oth

ers

Reasons why the number of

women researchers is small

men

women

men women

Positions people wish to have

56

1. Analysis of science and technology policies in major countries

○Analysis on S&T policies of major countries (PR1)

2. Analysis of current status of Japan based on macro data

○Analysis of macro data （PR2)

○TFP analysis (PR3)

○Qualitative analysis (PR4)

3. Analysis of universities and public research organizations

○Analysis of internal structure and operation of public research organizations (PR5)

○Analysis of university groups (PR6)

○Study on research environment at university by analyzing research time (PR6)

4. Analysis of S&T human resources

○Survey on world-class HR (PR7)

○Mobility of researchers (PR7)

○Education at universities and graduate schools (PR8)

5. Analysis of innovation systems ○Creation of IPR and collaboration among the industry-

academia-government (PR9)

○Regional Innovation (PR9)

○Infrastructure of innovation (PR9)

6. Current situation of state-of-the-art research

○Discussion on S&T areas & fields that the 4th Basic Plan should emphasize (PR11)

7. Research outcomes from S&T ○Achievements created by universities and research institutes

(PR12)

○Roles of public research institutes and support from public organizations (PR12)

○Measurement of S&T impact on industry and general public’s life (PR3)

Follow-up Studies of 3rd S&T Basic Plan

57

0.67% 0.44%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

Manufacturing industries All industries

Contribution of

labor and capital

to growth of

production volume

Contribution of

other factors to

TFP growth ratio

Contribution of

research and

development

activities to TFP

growth ratio

Sales grow th ratio

(2003-2006): 5.46%

TFP grow th ratio

(2003-2006): 2.40% 100%

28%

•In manufacturing companies which conduct R&D、 in a TFP growth ratio of 2.4%, the contribution of R&D is 0.67%

•R&D made a significant contribution equivalent to 28% of TFP growth.

R&D in manufacturing industries contributes

28% of the TFP growth ratio

58

Direction of Japanese S&T

for the next S&T Basic Plan ☆Focused Areas ☆Societies to be realized

• Low carbon society, new energy system society

• Advanced Medical system

• Advanced system for education and human resource development

• Contribution for global problems such as global warming & infectious diseases

• Maintaining R&D Japanese capability under economic recession

• S&T collaboration structure in Asia

Basic Research

Contribution for

Global Problems

Development of

Advanced Technology with

International Competitiveness

in Solving

Global Problems