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Technology Forecasting
D es ide rab le
N o rm ativeA p proa ch
P ossib le P ro bab le
D e sc r ip tiveA p proa ch
L o ok ing in to th e F u tu re
Technology Forecasting
D es ide rab le
N o rm ativeA p proa ch
P ossib le P ro bab le
D e sc r ip tiveA p proa ch
L o ok ing in to th e F u tu re
Question 1: what happens to object A in time T if free to evolve ?
Technology Forecasting
D es ide rab le
N o rm ativeA p proa ch
P ossib le P ro bab le
D e sc r ip tiveA p proa ch
L o ok ing in to th e F u tu re
Question 2: what happens if we change object C ?
Forecasting of Technology• Technology “Applying a systematic technique,
method or approach to solve a problem”1
• Forecasting of Technology . . .– Forecasting of Applying,– Forecasting of Systems,– Forecasting of Techniques/Methods,– Forecasting of Solve,– Forecasting of Problems.
Note 1a.The application of science, especially to industrial or commercial objectives. b.The scientific method and material used to achieve a commercial or industrial objective.
Forecasting of Technology
Technological System
ProductPrimaryFunction
Engine
Transmission
Working Means
Cont
rol
Forecasting of Technology
Technological System
ProductPrimaryFunction
Engine
Transmission
Working Means
Cont
rol
Es.:Forecasting of “Machine Tooling”
Grinder
Work Piecemachine
Motor
Tool
Cont
rol U
nit
Transmission
turn
Es.:Forecasting of “Photographic Camera”
Camera
lightrecord
Motor
Focus adjust
Lens Set
Micr
opro
cess
or
Es.:Forecasting of “Semantic Tool”
Semantic TOOLS
conceptsshow
ProSAO II
Database
GUI
Task
Sch
edul
er
ProSAO II
wordstag
Parser
Database
Tagger
Mar
kov
Hidd
en M
odel
TechnologyNesting
Es.:Forecasting of “Semantic Engine”
ProSAO II
wordstag
Parser
Database
Tagger
Mar
kov
Hidd
en M
odel
Es.:Forecasting of “<?>”
<?>
<?><?>
<?>
<?>
<?>
<?>
Methods for Technology Forecasting
Available Information MethodsTacit Knowledge (Exp.) Delphi
Another Comparable System Analogy Methods
Observation from System Extrapolation
Variables to be predicted Statistics
Phenomena Causal Relations
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Methods for Forecast of Technology
• Forecasting of Technology• Technology “Applying a systematic technique,
method or approach to solve a problem”1
• Forecasting of Technology . . .– Forecasting of Applying,– Forecasting of Systems,– Forecasting of Techniques/Methods,– Forecasting of Solve,– Forecasting of Problems.
Methods for Forecast of Technology
• "TIPS" is the acronym for "Theory of Inventive Problem Solving"
• "TRIZ" is the acronym for the same phrase in Russian• TRIZ was developed by Genrich Altshuller and his
colleagues in the former USSR starting in 1946, and is now being developed and practiced throughout the world.
• The research has proceeded in several stages over the last 50 years.
• Over 2 million patents have been examined, classified by level of inventiveness, and analyzed to look for principles of innovation.
Methods for Forecast of Technology
TRIZ Basics Achievements:1. Problems and solutions were repeated
across industries and sciences
2. Patterns of technical evolution were repeated across industries and sciences
3. Innovations used scientific effects outside the field where they were developed
TRIZ forecasting
consists these major phases:
1. Analysis of the system's evolution: study of the history of the system and its position on its "life curve" (S-curve)
2. "Road mapping“: application of the Laws and Lines of Technological Systems Evolution to forecast functional and structural alterations in the system
3. Problem formulation: formulation of engineering problems to be solved so as to achieve targets set at the previous phase
4. Problem solving: solving the formulated problems by using powerful analytical and solution tools of TRIZ
Analogy
Extrapolation
Statistics
Causal Relations