Technology for a better society

AN SCGE MODEL INTEGRATINGTHE ENERGY SYSTEM ANDTHE REGIONAL ECONOMY

Ruud Egging24 Oct 2013

CREE meets CenSES

Technology for a better society

• Regional energy balance and supply costs/prices• Impact (energy-intensive) industry output, goods

prices and consumption levels• economic activity & growth, commodity prices &

demand• Integrated/consistent projections for energy supply

and demand (rel. to other models)

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Insights we want from RegPol SCGE

Technology for a better society

1. Energy systems model (TIMES-Norway)2. National macroeconomic model (MODDAG/MSG)3. Economic-demographic single-region model

(PANDA)4. SCGE for regional economies and relations

between economy and energy system (*)

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RegPol Models

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• Regional analysis• Spatial-Equilibrium setting• Bridge between TIMES and PANDA

• Impact on value creation, energy balance & security, energy prices by region, industry type

Role of SCGE in RegPol

Technology for a better society

• 7+sokkel regions (later 19 counties + 1)• Enough sector detail to capture interactions,

substitution and impact of energy system:• multiple fuels and energy carriers• production (sectors) & conversion technologies, incl.

substitution and efficiency• transportation (infra: use of capital, or endowment)• consumption• government

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Multi-Regional Multi-Sector Multi-Period

Technology for a better society

• Eight Norwegian regions (incl. Sokkel)

• One outside world

• Eventually: 19 Fylke + Sokkel + surrounding countries

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Prototype - Regions

Technology for a better society

• Reflect energy carrier production and conversion:• OIL, GAS• Oil and natural gas (or separate, so that e.g. easier

to reflect different developments in prod levels?)• ELE• Electricity (All inclusive Hydro plus newly installed

renewables as scenario assumptions?)• Refineries?

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Production Sectors - Energy

Technology for a better society

• Focus on energy intensive sectors• Construction (infra)• Energy intensive industries, incl. refining• Manufacturing other• Services

• Eventually: separate refineries, and more detail in classes of energy intensiveness?

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Production Sectors Other

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• Want to reflect energy transport, general trade and pax transport (el-cars, biofuels..)• electricity• oil/gas• freight• passengers

Transport and trade

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• Trade, also foreign trade, on a regional level, especially for energy

• Can consider an energy trader using energy transport services and needing capital and other input factors to reflect infrastructure (capacity needs)

• Pax transport via consumer demand

Transport and Trade

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• Is not likely to be a main driver of our model in itself

• But need to be able to reflect price, tax & other measures and incentives impact on consumption changes

Household Consumption

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• Regional and National• Measures, regulations, taxes, incentives• Regional: projects/business cases

Governments

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• Want to capture Energy Exports and Imports county specific:• FIN; RUS; SWE, DK, DEU, NLD, UKD, ROW…?

• Levels/Balances:• Exogenous net import/export level?

Modeling Rest of the World

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• Want to reflect daily load and seasonal variation in supply and demand

• Eventually dynamic model with long-term horizon

Time periods

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THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION