Technological change and the Tragedy of the Commons: The Lofoten Fishery over Hundred and Thirty...
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Technological change and the Tragedy of the Commons: The Lofoten Fishery over Hundred and Thirty Years Rögnvaldur Hannesson Kjell Salvanes Dale Squires
Technological change and the Tragedy of the Commons: The Lofoten Fishery over Hundred and Thirty Years Rögnvaldur Hannesson Kjell Salvanes Dale Squires
Technological change and the Tragedy of the Commons: The
Lofoten Fishery over Hundred and Thirty Years Rgnvaldur Hannesson
Kjell Salvanes Dale Squires
Slide 2
Period covered: 1860-1988 (open access ended in 1988) Fish
stock data since 1900
Slide 3
The traditional product: fish dried in open air
Slide 4
Main issues Productivity development 1860-1988 (last year of
open access) Puzzle: Labor productivity lagged behind agriculture
& industry Role of fish stock for productvity Growth in TFP
> growth in labor (or capital) productivity if role of stock
taken into account Open access dissipates gains from technical
progess
Slide 5
Labor productivity (value) in the Lofoten fishery (9-years
moving average) versus wages in agriculture and manufacturing
Slide 6
Labor productivity (annual and 9-years moving average) in the
Lofoten fishery
Slide 7
Strong correlation stock-catch Also between boats and menwe
cant use both in a regression, with boats as proxies for
capital
Slide 8
Fishermen per boat
Slide 9
Production function: Y catch per year, E effort (boats or
fishermen), S stock An instantaneous function not really
appropriate for discrete time modeling, but the Lofoten fishery is
seasonal (~3 months) with the fish migrating gradually to the area
Fish migrations
Slide 10
abConstantR2R2 Gill nets 1900-1988 0.8508** (4.51) 0.3930**
(2.71) 0.0133 (0.33) 0.27 Long line 1900-1988 0.3651** (2.07)
0.6465** (5.68) -0.0010 (-0.33) 0.34 Hand line 1900-1988 0.3302
(1.59) 0.5698** (2.17) 0.0257 (0.36) 0.10 Purse seine 1950-1958
0.9608** (4.11) 2.1560 (1.84) 0.1481 (0.48) 0.83 Dan. seine
1959-1988 1.4751** (4.25) 0.6048** (2.46) -0.0777 (-0.79) 0.47 Note
0 < b < 1, constant reflects technical progress
Slide 11
Constant ln(Y/L) ln(Y/L) t-1 R2R2 All boats 1860-1988 -0.0156
(-1.26) 0.00316 (0.08) 0.1787** (4.35) 0.14 Gill nets 1875-1988
-0.0138 (-0.83) 0.0371 (0.87) 0.2455** (5.74) 0.23 Long line
1875-1988 -0.0274 (-1.83) -0.0649 (-1.52) 0.1624** (3.81) 0.15 Hand
line 1875-1988 -0.0113 (-0.40) -0.0921* (-2.29) 0.1456** (3.65)
0.18 Purse seine 1950-1958 -0.2378 (-1.01) 0.4442 (1.70) -0.5113
(-1.43) 0.60 Dan. seine 1959-1988 0.0207 (0.08) 0.0368 (0.32)
-0.0025 (-0.02) 0.00
Slide 12
Change in participation (no. boats) related to catch per
fisherman lagged one year Use no. fishermen & catch per
fisherman, both lagged one year, as instrumental variables Using
catch value per fisherman gives poorer results than just catch per
fisherman Could be because price depends on quantity
Slide 13
Perioda0a0 a1a1 R2R2 1860-19880.0107 (0.48) -0.3193 (-4.83**)
0.16 1860-19370.0031 (0.09) -0.4408** (-4.11) 0.18 1938-880.0277
(1.34) -0.1759** (-3.10) 0.16 In 1938 fishermen got exclusive
rights to sell raw fish. Seems to have stabilized prices (as
intended).
Average G based on 9-years moving average of TFP TFP growth
> labor productivity growth Normal technological progress,
diluted by decline in stock GearGill netsLong linesHand linesDanish
seine Average growth rate of labor productivity
0.01810.01650.01530.0111 Average growth rate of TFP
0.02090.02320.01630.0222 TFP-index for end year 536641370162
Slide 18
Two possible reasons why TFP grows faster than LP: 1)Rising no
fishermen per boat 2)Decline in fish stock
Slide 19
Major episodes: Motorization 1905-20 Low prices 1920s &
30s, technology reversion Raw fish marketing board 1938 Better
technology & outside options after 1950