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Technical Seasonalities

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TimingTheMarket.

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of re-occurring strength among individual equities in the market using methodologies

presented by some of the top analysts in the industry, including those of Donald Vialoux,

author of TimingTheMarkets.com.

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Equity Clock: Seasonality Analysis November 27, 2015

Equity Clock Stock Market Outlook

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Stock Market Outlook for Friday, November 27, 2015

HEADLINE: Period of seasonal weakness for Oil is coming to an end and investors may want to be on the lookout for some opportunities.

The Markets

Stocks closed flat on Wednesday as investors held the tape steady ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday. The S&P 500 Index was virtually unchanged during the low volume session with energy and material stocks dragging on the positive momentum

realized amongst the consumer sectors. The large-cap index continues to scratch against short-term resistance just below 2100.

The benchmark will get another shot at a holiday bounce on Friday when gains for the

post Thanksgiving session average 0.35%, based on the past 65 years of data.

Equity Clock Stock Market Outlook

eResearch Corporation ~ 3 ~ www.eresearch.ca

Despite the quiet session on the trading front, a bounty of economic reports were released before the Thanksgiving feast. Starting with New Home Sales for October, the headline print indicated that sales rose 10.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of

495,000. Stripping out seasonal adjustments, sales of new houses rose by 20.6%, a significant shift from the average decline for October of 0.5%.

Still, despite recouping much of September’s plunge, the year-to-date trend remains

below average. Sales remain on a downward path through the remaining two months of the year. Much of the bounce was attributed to sales of new homes that were either not started or under construction; sales of completed homes lagged the average October

change.

It may appear that home buyers are reluctant to close on new mortgages leading into next month’s FOMC meeting, when the Fed is expected to raise rates for the first time

in over a decade. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the US continues to hover just below 4.00%. The Dow Jones US Home Construction ETF (ITB) traded higher by just less than 1% following the report. Homebuilding stocks remain in a period of seasonal

strength through to mid-February.

Equity Clock Stock Market Outlook

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Equity Clock Stock Market Outlook

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Equity Clock Stock Market Outlook

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S5HOME Index Relative to the S&P 500

Equity Clock Stock Market Outlook

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Another report released on Wednesday was Durable Goods Orders for the month of October. Headline print showed that New Orders of Durable Goods rose by a healthy 3.0%, above the consensus analyst estimate, which called for an increase of 1.5%.

Excluding transportation, orders were still higher by a respectable 0.5%, once again surpassing estimates calling for a gain of 0.4%.

Stripping out seasonal adjustments, the value of manufacturers’ new orders for capital

goods industries declined by 2.4%, a significantly shallower decline than the October average contraction of 12.3%. The year-to-date trend, which has been gyrating on either side of the average line all year, is now back above average going into the

seasonally positive final two months of the year. The above average Defense spending this year appears to be supporting the overall report, which continues to see a drag from non-defense capital goods spending. Aerospace and Defense stocks remain in a

period of seasonal strength through to the start of May.

Equity Clock Stock Market Outlook

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Equity Clock Stock Market Outlook

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Equity Clock Stock Market Outlook

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S5AERO Index Relative to the S&P 500

Equity Clock Stock Market Outlook

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Rounding off some of the more influential reports was an update on energy commodity inventories for the most recent week. The Energy Information Administration reported that oil inventories increased by 1.0 million barrels, while gasoline jumped by 2.5

million barrels. The days of supply for each moved in opposite directions with oil trimming a third of a day to end at 30.5 and gasoline adding half of a day of supply to end at 23.7.

Gasoline days of supply is turning higher, once again, as refiners come back online after fall maintenance, and oil days of supply appears to be topping out as refiners process a greater share of the raw input. The price of oil typically hits a low in the first week of

December, trading higher through the remainder of the month. The period of seasonal weakness for oil is coming to an end and investors may want to be on the lookout for some opportunities.

Equity Clock Stock Market Outlook

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Equity Clock Stock Market Outlook

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Put-Call Ratio Sentiment on Wednesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended bearish at 1.04.

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Equity Clock Stock Market Outlook

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Seasonal Charts

A. Sectors and Industries Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today

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Equity Clock Stock Market Outlook

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B. Stocks Entering Period of Seasonal Strength Today

Saputo Inc. (TSE:SAP) Seasonal Chart

Dominion Diamond Corp (TSE:DDC) Seasonal Chart

C. Seasonal Charts of Companies Reporting Earnings Today

No significant companies reporting earnings today

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Equity Clock Stock Market Outlook

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S&P 500 Index

Equity Clock Stock Market Outlook

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TSE Composite

Equity Clock Stock Market Outlook

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Special Free Services Available through www.equityclock.com Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices. Notice that most of the seasonality charts

have been updated recently. To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/

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BW: Information on Equity Clock is provided below.

Equity Clock

Equity Clock is a division of the Tech Talk Financial Network, a market analysis

company that provides technical, fundamental, and seasonality analysis on a daily

basis via TimingTheMarkets.com and EquityClock.com.

Equity Clock’s mission is to identify periods of reoccurring strength among

individual equities in the market using methodologies presented by some of the top

analysts in the industry, including that of Don Vialoux, author of

TimingTheMarkets.com.

Feel free to use any of the content or seasonality studies (charts, timelines, or

otherwise) presented as long as a link-back to this site at EquityClock.com is

provided.

For further information on indicators used in reports presented on this site, please

visit our reference page.

Equity Clock Website:www.equityclock.com

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