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• Philosophy – why technical analysis works
• Charting basics
Incorporating technical analysis with fundamental analysis
Inter-market analysis
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“The market reflects all the jobber knows about the condition of the textile trade; all the banker knows about the money market; all that the best-informed president knows of his own business, together with his knowledge of all other businesses; it sees the general condition of transportation in a way that the president of no single railroad can ever see; it is better informed on crops than the farmer or even the Department of Agriculture. In fact, the market reduces to a bloodless verdict all knowledge bearing on finance, both domestic and foreign.”
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"To understand how economies work and how we can manage them and prosper, we must pay attention to the thought patterns that animate people's ideas and feelings, their animal spirits.We will never really understand important economic events unless we confront the fact that their causes are largely mental in nature.“
From the new book - Animal Spirits: How Human Psychology Drives the Economy, and Why It Matters for Global Capitalism
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First known use was in 1700s in Japan for trading rice
Until after WW II in U.S., technical analysis was the only widely used form of security analysis◦ No reliable fundamental data available until
Securities Act of 1933 implemented◦ Prior to 1930s Fundamental data was not reliable – releasing false
financial information was common
Insider trading was legal and common – insiders sold and passed on info to others. This actually improved accuracy of TA since all information could be utilized in trading.
1934 – publication of Security Analysis by Graham and Dodd launches fundamental analysis field
1949 – Robert McGee charged with securities violations by SEC for TA-based recommendations
Federal Reserve paper in 2000 cited efficacy of TA
Bank of Japan uses TA for currency trading
2005 – SEC accepts CMT exam for technical analysts in lieu of Series 86
Academia has moved from strong form market efficiency /anti TA to the point where many universities offer courses in TA. “Sure technical analysis works
in practice, but it will never work in theory.”
CFA Body of Knowledge now includes technical analysis
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Are stock prices arrived at using fundamental valuation:
OR
Are they arrived at by the forces of supply and demand?
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On a real time basis, the price of any freely traded security is based on the balance between supply and demand
For many market participants, fundamental analysis is the basis of their decisions
But fundamental analysis is only one of many inputs and different analysts produce different valuations
Technical analysis is the study of real time movements in price, volume and trend◦ Interaction between supply and demand
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Technical analysis provides a tool to predict securities prices using price and volume data displayed graphically
Keep in mind that technical analysis is often subjective, particularly in recognizing patterns
Also, for nearly every widely accepted technical rule, there is a contrarian rule - if everyone is bullish, there is no one left to buy, so prices will decline.
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All information is contained in charts◦ News is generally correctly anticipated by the markets prior to its
official release or even its occurrence. e.g., political futures markets’ prediction of election outcomes
Chart patterns are due to investor psychology
Patterns occur repeatedly and can be used to forecast markets
Technical analysis works for any freely traded market Equities
Fixed Income
Commodities
Currencies
Domestic or International
Technical analysis works for any time frame Day trader
Long-term investor
• Behavioral finance uses social psychology to explain market anomalies
• Technical analysis provides a set of tools to track and analyze market action, whether driven by rational or irrational factors
• Humans usually act rationally, but often act irrationally and technical analysis allows for analysis of both inputs
• The field of behavioral finance is recognizing areas of repeated irrational behavior
• Academia and the CFA curriculum moving away from efficient markets hypothesis and accepting behavioral finance and even (gasp) technical analysis
• Behavioral finance recognizes that human irrationality often impacts investments, while technical analysis provides the tools to recognize and profit from this behavior
• Technical analysis works because humans, either individually or in groups, tend to repeat their behavior
• Technical analysis allows us to identify behavioral patterns in stocks and profit from repetitions of such investor behavior
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Candlestick chart◦ Each candle has two elements: body and wick / shadow
HIGH
CLOSE
OPEN
LOW
White body means market closed UP
Close > Open
HIGH
OPEN
CLOSE
LOW
Dark body means market closed DOWN
Close < Open
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2001 A S O N D 2002 M A M J J A S O N D 2003 M A M J J A S O N D 2004 M A M J J A S O N D 2005 M A M J J A S O N D 2006 M A M J J A
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36TASER INTL (8.69000, 8.70000, 5.83000, 6.17000, -2.48000)
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1. An uptrend is defined as a series of higher lows and a higher highs
2. A downtrend is defined as a series of lower lows and lower highs
2. OB (overbought) is the upper parameter of a trend
3. OS (oversold) is the lower parameter of a trend
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Trend lines indicate
the relative strength
of buyers and sellers
• Upward sloping
trendline means more
buying pressure than
selling pressure
• Downward sloping
trendline means more
selling pressure than
buying pressure
2003 Dec 2004 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2005 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
10000
20000
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x1000
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68EXXON MOBIL (60.5500, 61.0500, 58.9000, 58.9500, -1.60000)
May June July August September November December 2005 February March April May June July August September
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x1000
24.5
25.0
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29.0
BELLSOUTH (25.8500, 26.3300, 25.7700, 26.1100, +0.12000)
•Support lines indicate price levels where buyers repeatedly step in to halt
declines
•Resistance lines are where sellers repeatedly step in to contain rallies
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•Moving average lines are an average of a specified number of prior day’s
closing prices
•Moving average crossovers can be used as trading signals
• Short-Term crosses above Long-Term = BUY; ST crosses below LT = SELL
2007 Nov ember December 2008 February March April May June July August September October Nov ember December 2009 February March April May June July August September October
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6.7ENDOLOGIX ORD (6.07000, 6.25000, 6.03000, 6.25000, +0.16000)
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Use technical analysis to provide a quick overview of various markets, e.g., bonds, equities, commodities, currencies
Use technical analysis to provide a quick overview of various national equities markets, e.g., DJIA, S&P 500, FTSE, DAX, CAC, Nikkei, Hong Kong, Shanghai
Technical analysis works on any freely traded market – and you do not even have to know what the market is to analyze it
You can perform more analysis using technicals in a limited time than any other method
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Using Technical Analysis To Identify Promising Stocks for Further Fundamental Analysis
Analyze the nine S&P sectors to find best and worst performing sectors
Identify best performing individual stocks in best performing sectors
Identify worst performing individual stocks in worst performing sectors
(Technical analysis can also be used after fundamental work has been done using techniques already covered to gauge timing.)
Many practitioners will first look at a chart when investigating a new security◦ This immediately identifies the trend determining whether the
market has a favorable or unfavorable view of fundamentals
◦ A chart is perhaps the most efficient way to quickly research a security
TA can be used before fundamental analysis◦ TA screening tools can identify specific securities or sectors
worthy of further fundamental analysis.
TA can be used after fundamental analysis ◦ Is the fundamental conclusion consistent with market trends?
If not this can suggest that the analyst missed important information that the market is considering or that the market is itself misinformed, suggesting a potential trading opportunity.
Considering market technicals is like looking both ways before crossing the street, even when the traffic signal is green.
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Support and resistance levels
Breakdowns of key support levels are a signal of increased risk for long positions
Trend lines
Breakdown of key trend lines are another risk signal
Oscillators◦ Look for unusual activity and overbought or oversold levels
Bollinger Bands◦ Breakouts of normal BB trading pattern
Moving average crossovers◦ Short-term MA crossing below long-term is a risk signal
Pattern breakouts◦ Both continuation and reversal patterns can be used to identify risk levels
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Analysis of one financial market to predict direction of a related market◦ Commodities
◦ US dollar
◦ Bonds
◦ Equities
Relationships◦ Commodities and interest rates directly related
Commodity prices changes is inflation/deflation
◦ Commodities and the US dollar inversely related
Commodity prices are really just ratios e.g. $/unit
◦ Equities and bonds are directly related – interest rates and equities inversely related
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CRB Index
Gold
US dollar
US T bond prices
US ten year bond rate
S&P 500
VIX
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December 2010 February March April May June July August September October November December 2011 February March
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75Relative Strength Index (58.3583)
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375CRB Index (350.500, 352.750, 349.970, 351.880, -2.57001)
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September October November December 2010 February March April May June July August September October November December 2011 February March
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x10
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80Relative Strength Index (58.0596)
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100 OZ GOLD COMPOSITE Continuous (1,413.70, 1,422.60, 1,404.90, 1,421.50, +9.30005)
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89.5US DOLLAR INDEX (77.2290, 77.3800, 76.6590, 76.7760, -0.50000)
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August September October November December 2010 February March April May June July August September October November December 2011 February March
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x100
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129.0US 10YR T-NOTES COMPOSITE Continuous (120.984, 121.422, 120.797, 121.000, +0.04700)
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August September October November December 2010 February March April May June July August September October November December 2011 February March
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41.510 Y TSY YLD NDX (33.8000, 34.1400, 33.4900, 33.9300, +0.000)
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1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
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1650S&P 500 INDEX (1,289.14, 1,344.07, 1,289.14, 1,327.22, +41.1000)
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August September October November December 2010 February March April May June July August September October November December 2011 February March
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70Relative Strength Index (50.2963)
910920930940950960970980990
10001010102010301040105010601070108010901100111011201130114011501160117011801190120012101220123012401250126012701280129013001310132013301340135013601370
S&P 500 INDEX (1,293.43, 1,308.35, 1,291.99, 1,304.28, +9.17004)
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December 2010 February March April May June July August September October November December 2011 February March
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75Relative Strength Index (53.4628)
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51Volatility Index (21.7200, 21.7500, 19.9700, 20.0800, -1.80000)
Stockcharts.com
Bigcharts.com
Google finance
Yahoo! finance
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IFTA – International Federation of Technical Analysts – IFTA.org
MTA – Market Technicians Association –MTA.org◦ Administers most widely respected TA charter
program – the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) program
◦ Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation (MTAEF) is a non-profit which produces university level TA course materials
Many countries also have TA societies
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MTA is the main US technical analysis society
Administers the Chartered Market Technician – CMT – program
CMT program requires three levels of exams or two exams and an academic quality paper
Market Technicians Association Educational Foundation – MTAEF◦ Non-profit foundation which produces course
materials for technical analysis education at universities
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Level One Topics◦ Terminology of technical analysis
◦ Methods of charting
◦ Determination of price trends/ basics of pattern recognition
◦ Establishing price targets
◦ Equity market analysis
◦ Applying technical analysis to bonds, currencies, futures and options
Fees ◦ $250 program registration
◦ $250 level one exam fee
Level one exam is 2 hours, 120 multiple choice questions
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Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets◦ John J. Murphy
Technical Analysis Explained◦ Martin J. Pring
Technical Analysis of Stock Trends◦ Robert Edwards and John Magee
This book is the classic text on technical analysis
Original version contained chart examples from the ’20s, 30s and 40s.
The above three books are the current readings for CMT Level 1.
The Encyclopedia of Technical Indicators◦ Robert W. Colby
This is a more advanced book explaining the use of dozens of technical trading indicators.
