23 July 2017

TECHFX TRADERSWEEKLY FX TECHNICAL REPORT

223 July, 2017WEEKLY FX TECHNICAL REPORT

Contents

Antipodean FX Charts

AUDUSD Medium Term Page 3 AUDUSD Short Term Page 4NZDUSD Medium Term Page 5NZDUSD Short Term Page 6 AUDNZD Medium Term Page 7 AUDNZD Short Term Page 8

Global FX / Rate Charts of Interest

USDJPY Medium Term Page 9USDJPY Short Term Page 10EURUSD Medium Term Page 11 EURUSD Short Term Page 12EURAUD Medium Term Page 13EURAUD Short Term Page 14EURGBP Medium Term Page 15EURGBP Short Term Page 16GBPUSD Medium Term Page 17GBPUSD Short Term Page 18US 10yr Notes Medium Term Page 19US 10yr Notes Short Term Page 20Gold Medium Term Page 21Gold Short Term Page 22

323 July, 2017Source Saxo. The figures stated are as of 23 July 2017. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation

AUDUSD

Medium Term View: Allow for further Wave IV upside into the low 80’s.

423 July, 2017Source Saxo. The figures stated are as of 23 July 2017. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation

AUDUSD

Short Term View: The wave equality projection for the current rally is .8130/50. The labels on the chart below provide a rough indication as to how I expect the rally to unfold.

Keep in mind, .8000c has historically been a big technical and psychological level which has in the past attracted strong option barrier interest. Hence would not be surprised to see resistance ahead of the .8000c area cap again, at least in the early part of the week.

Resistance: .8000, .8065/80, .81550Support: .7875, .7840/30, .7800/90.

523 July, 2017Source Saxo. The figures stated are as of 23 July 2017. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation

NZDUSD

Medium Term View: Very close to the .7480/.7500 target area. A move above .7500c would indicate the start of a new leg higher towards .80c.

623 July, 2017Source Saxo. The figures stated are as of 23 July 2017. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation

NZDUSD

Short Term View: The NZDUSD has been unstoppable, now up 9.5% from the low it printed in Mid May. .7500c is a “big level” that needs to be respected in the first instance. However, I feel its only a matter of time before the NZDUSD breaks above .7500c to start a move towards the next target of .7680/.7700c.

Resistance: .7485/00, .7600, .7650Support: .7375/65, .7330, .7300

723 July, 2017Source Saxo. The figures stated are as of 23 July 2017. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation

AUDNZD

Medium Term View: The preferred wave count calls for a retest of parity and then into the low 90’s. A move below 1.0370/60 is confirmation this move is underway.

823 July, 2017Source Saxo. The figures stated are as of 23 July 2017. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation

AUDNZD

Short Term View: Last week, the price action in the cross would have tested the fortitude of even the most experienced AUDNZD trader. Pleased to have at least called the move from 1.0550 up to 1.0730.

With little in the way of a clear wave count or tradable pattern for last weeks move, the most important reference point is the speed of the fall late last week. This indicates to me the path of least resistance remains to the downside.

Resistance: 1.0640/50, 1.0700, 1.0730/40Support: 1.0550, 1.0500/90, 1.0460

923 July, 2017Source Saxo. The figures stated are as of 23 July 2017. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation

USDJPY

Medium Term View: Currently neutral.

1023 July, 2017Source Saxo. The figures stated are as of 23 July 2017. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation

USDJPY

Short Term View: I view the price action of the past 4 months as a bearish corrective 3 wave “abc” rally which indicates a test and possible break of range lows 108.80/10. Initial support resides 110 which will form the platform of a minor bounce before thedowntrend resumes

Resistance: 111.55/65, 112.10/20, 112.70/80Support: 110.60/50, 110.10/00, 109.45

1123 July, 2017Source Saxo. The figures stated are as of 23 July 2017. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation

EURUSD

Medium Term View: Initial target now reached, however the bounce looks far from complete.

1223 July, 2017Source Saxo. The figures stated are as of 23 July 2017. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation

EURUSD

Short Term View: The EURUSD is very close to the 1.1700 handle from where I would expect to see the upward momentum stall/pullback develop.

Rather than the downtrend returning immediately, the recent rally looks to only be the first leg of a corrective move that couldextend for many months. Dips towards 1.1450/1.1350 should be viewed as a buying opportunity.

Resistance: 1.1715, 1.1800, 1.1870, Support: 1.1620, 1.1580, 1.1550

1323 July, 2017Source Saxo. The figures stated are as of 23 July 2017. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation

EURAUD

Medium Term View: Bullish for 1.6000 and beyond.

1423 July, 2017Source Saxo. The figures stated are as of 23 July 2017. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation

EURAUD

Short Term View: The view last week was for EURAUD to complete a Wave 4 pullback in the vicinity of 1.4500 which looks to have played out nicely thus far.

A move above 1.4800 would provide further confirmation EURAUD is set for a retest of the June 1.5225 high. It would also allow stops on long positions to be raised.

Resistance: 1.4750, 1.4800/20, 1.4850Support: 1.4625, 1.4560, 1.4500

1523 July, 2017Source Saxo. The figures stated are as of 23 July 2017. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation

EURGBP

Medium Term View: Finally EURGBP confirms the break higher. I favour EURGBP can extend gains to .9150 leaning against .8850.

1623 July, 2017Source Saxo. The figures stated are as of 23 July 2017. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation

EURGBP

Short Term View: After just about giving up on the bullish view last week, EURGBP finally confirmed the move higher.I feel this rally has the potential to extend to .9150 and I will look closely for corrective pullbacks to set long positions.

Resistance: .9000, .9040/50, .9130Support: .8900, .8860/40, .8740,

1723 July, 2017Source Saxo. The figures stated are as of 23 July 2017. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation

GBPUSD

Medium Term View: Bearish leaning against 1.3500.

1823 July, 2017Source Saxo. The figures stated are as of 23 July 2017. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation

GBPUSD

Short Term View: New highs last week (post the Oct 2016 GBP flash crash), which weren’t particularly well received by the market. For last weeks setback to grow in importance and to provide initial confirmation a medium term high is in place a break below 1.2930 followed by a move below 1.2820/00 is required.

Resistance: 1.3120/40, 1.3200, 1.3240.Support: 1.2930, 1.2890, 1.2820/00.

1923 July, 2017Source Saxo. The figures stated are as of 23 July 2017. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation

US 10 Year Notes

Medium Term View: US 10yr notes remain range bound.

2023 July, 2017Source Saxo. The figures stated are as of 23 July 2017. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation

US 10 Year Notes

Short Term View: The bounce from the 124’25/20 support, extended last week and counts best as the first leg of 5 waves up for Wave C. I will stay with this view unless a break/close below 124’25/20 is viewed.

Resistance: 126’25/30, 127’10, 127’16Support: 125’30 125’24, 125’05, 124’25/20,

2123 July, 2017Source Saxo. The figures stated are as of 23 July 2017. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation

GOLD

Medium Term View: The current advance counts best at W III of WC which is part of a corrective bounce post the fall from $1,800.

2223 July, 2017Source Saxo. The figures stated are as of 23 July 2017. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation

GOLD

Short Term View: The Gold chart has featured in our Morning Updates and Twitter feed in recent weeks. The count below outlines what I am looking for.

We are currently long gold at 1236.25 with our stops now at 1234.50. There is an argument to take some profit ahead of minor resistance 1258/60. However keep in mind the wave count below calls for a move towards major resistance at 1300. At the very least lets raise stops to 1239.50.

Resistance: 1258/60, 1273/75, 1281Support: 1244, 1235, 1228

2323 July, 2017WEEKLY FX TECHNICAL REPORT

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