Data Set 1 University Biologists Population Crash in 384 years,
with a growth rate of 0.975, just short of equilibrium replacement
Realistically likely no policy action for an event almost 400 years
away Why?
Slide 3
384 years ago? The first successful English colony in the West
Indies was established, and the first calculator mechanism to add
or subtract six-digit numbers was invented. Spooky Tooky Owl 400
years into the future? Insignificant at best.
Slide 4
Data Set 2 Government Study Population Crash in 66 years Growth
rate of 0.868 Lower survival probabilities (S, S 0 and S 1 )
quickens population crash and lowers growth rate
Slide 5
Policy Implications Population collapse time of 66 years allows
for more than enough time to act in favor of the protection of the
wondrous Spooky Tooky. However, the time scale of over 60 years
lapses generations and political eras, possibly causing a lack of
interest in an issue not critical for such a relatively long
time.
Slide 6
Data Set 3 Sierra Club Population Crash in 22 years Growth Rate
of 0.653 Significantly lower survival probabilities than the other
two data sets, causing the relatively earlier crash Possibly an
inherent bias in the Sierra Clubs findings to further their cause
of environmental protection
Slide 7
Policy Implications Of all the data sets, the Sierra Clubs
findings allows for a time frame most applicable and appealing to
policy work 22 years is a realistic time span for policy enactment
and completion. Example 1985 Vienna Treaty on ozone depletion and
CFC use (22 years ago)