teamlogoElectrification and "Publification"

of the Transportation Infrastructure

Claire Kearns-McCoy, Max Powers, CK Umachi

3.003 Principles of Engineering Practice

May 10, 2011

teamlogo

Electrification and "Publification" of the Transportation Infrastructure

• Electric vehicles will become the dominant method of private transportation.

• Public transportation usage will also increase as population becomes urbanized.

Background

Issues and Constraints There is a need for reduction in

carbon emissions. Electric vehicles have a limited

range and require additional electricity production.

Public transport must be made more user friendly.

Recommended Solution

Power electric vehicles using rooftop solar panels and charging stations

Improve public transportation infrastructure and incorporate GPS tracking

Principles of Engineering Practice 2011 UT-MIST-MIT International Seminar on Materials

teamlogoBackground: Trends in Private

Transportation

• The switch to electric vehicles throughout the world is gaining steamo In the USA, President Obama has vowed to

have one million electric vehicles on the road by 2015.

o In Europe, gas vehicles will be banned in 2050. • Many major car companies have come out with

electric vehicles recently. oMany new, smaller companies have also

developed electric vehicles.

teamlogoIssues

• The range of electric vehicles is less than that of gasoline powered vehicles. o Improvements in efficiency must be made to increase the

range.• Switching to electric powered vehicles will increase demand

for electricity.o Production must be increased to match demand.o Sustainable energy sources will be needed.

• Need for reduction in combustion of carbon-based fuelso Societies have made it a priority to reduce their carbon

emissions.o Burning carbon creates hazardous emissions.o Carbon-based fuels are a limited resource.

teamlogoIssues

• The cost of operation for gasoline powered cars is expected to rise.

• The cost of operation for electric powered vehicles is expected to decrease.

Source: UC Berkley

teamlogoRecommendations

• Decrease weight of electric vehicles to increase efficiency and extend range

• Use solar energy to charge batteriesoSome of the necessary power can be generated

by photovoltaic cells on the roofs of the vehicles.This also extends range

oSupplemental power can be supplied through charging stations powered by photovoltaics.

teamlogoAnalysis (Electric)

• Based on estimates through 2030 for the number of electric vehicles, we were able to extrapolate through 2050.

• Estimates are from R.L. Polk and based on the Bass methodology.

• We estimate that 70% of automobiles will be electric by 2050 based on this projection.

teamlogoAnalysis

•  Each car will need 5-20 square meters of solar panels per day.oThis assumes an average of 28 kWh

per 100 miles, 30 miles driven per day, and 28% solar cell efficiency.oA typical car can fit 6.5 square meters

of solar cells on its roof.

teamlogoAnalysis

• We estimate that improvements in efficiency will increase the range of  electric vehicles  to 120 miles per charge.oCurrent electric vehicles have a range of about

100 miles per charge.oA 25% weight reduction increases efficiency by

20% .oRooftop solar panels can increase this range by

up to 26 miles depending on location and speed.

teamlogoConsequences and implementation

Consequences• 70% of automobiles will be electric powered by 2050• Demand for fossil fuels will be drastically decreased• Demand for electricity will increase

Implementation• Charging stations will be located in parking lots• Solar panels on the roofs of cars will provide much of the

required power• Infrastructure and manufacturing capabilities will shift to

accommodate electric vehicles

teamlogoBackground: Trends in Public

Transportation

• Currently 12% of people use public transportation to commute.

• The portion of people living in urban areas is expected to increase 5-8% by 2050.

• Sustainability will be a key issue for future transportation.

teamlogoIssues

teamlogoIssues (Public Transportation)

• Carbon Emissions- "private vehicles emit about 95 percent more carbon monoxide, 92 percent more volatile organic compounds for every

passenger mile travelled" -American Enterprise Institute  • Congestion• Expediency • Dealing with an increasing urban population

teamlogoRecommendations

• Improving infrastructure, greater carrying capacity, more vehicles.

• Transit oriented development in urban areas• GPS tracking system with LED screens

teamlogoAnalysis

• UN reports puts urban population at 5 billion by 2040

• 12% population currently use for commute• 15% expected use by 2020• 19% expected us by 2050• Expected 3% increase by adding GPS

alone• In transit oriented development areas,

people 5x more likely to use public transportation

teamlogoConsequences and Implementation

• Increases sustainability of transportation• Up to 13% less carbon emissions if 20%

of people use public transportation for commuting

• Decrease foreign oil dependency• Decrease urban highway congestion • Depends heavily on local spending,

variable increase depending on fund allocation

teamlogoConsequences

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Public 12% 14% 15% 17% 19%

Private (Gas) 83% 84% 77% 50% 24%

Private (Electric) 1% 2% 8% 33% 57%

Trends for private and public transportation can be combined

We can estimate the percentage of the population using the different methods

teamlogoCO2 Emmisions

Pounds of CO2 per passenger mile Gas cars: 0.9 pounds per passenger mile Electric Vehicles: 0.5 pounds per passenger mile Public Transportation (Buses and Trains): 0.2pounds per

passenger mile