Team Drafted: Nick Benton & Katie McNamara. Introduction Using algorithms to predict the order of the NFL Draft Brute Force Gauss-Jordan Team Needs

PREDICTING THE NFL DRAFT

Team Drafted: Nick Benton & Katie McNamara

Introduction

Using algorithms to predict the order of the NFL DraftBrute ForceGauss-JordanTeam Needs

Data:Previous 3 years expert picks (Mel Kiper &

Matt Miller)Previous 3 years top 50

Formal Problem Statement In this project we will use three

algorithms to predict the NFL draft using player statistics against historical draft results.

Player Value*Weightn Player Value= 100 - position drafted

I.E. Andrew Luck picked 1st gets a 99 value

Context

Mel KiperAnalyst for ESPN since 1984ESPN Insider

Matt MillerBleacher Report’s NFL Draft Lead Writer

Experimental Procedure

Determine a value for professional predictions in order to set a baseline for our goal

Use Brute Force algorithm Use Gauss Jordan algorithm Use Team Needs algorithm in reference

to Gauss Jordan

Pick Actual Player Team Error

1 1 Andrew Luck Colts 0

2 2 Robert Griffin III Redskins 0

3 4 Matt Kalil Vikings 1

4 5 Justin Blackmon Browns 1

5 3 Trent Richardson

Bucs2

6 6 Morris Claiborne Rams 0

7 12 Fletcher Cox Jags 5

8 8 Ryan Tannehill Dolphins 0

9 9 Luke Kuechly Panthers 0

10 10 Stephon Gilmore Bills 0

11 7 Mark Barron Chiefs 4

12 18 Melvin Ingram Seahawks 6

13 23 Riley Reiff Cardinals 10

14 16 Quinton Coples Cowboys 2

15 14 Michael Brockers

Eagles1

16 13 Michael Floyd Jets 3

Mel Kiper Jr. 2012

Pick Player Team

1 Andrew Luck Indianapolis Colts

2 Robert Griffin Redskins

3 Trent Richardson Cleveland Browns

4 Matt Kalil Minnesota Vikings

5 Justin Blackmon Jaguars

6 Morris Claiborne Dallas Cowboys

7 Mark Barron Buccaneers

8 Ryan Tannehill Miami Dolphins

9 Luke Kuechly Carolina Panthers

10 Stephon Gilmore Buffalo Bills

11 Dontari Poe Kansas City Chiefs

12 Fletcher Cox Eagles

13 Michael Floyd Arizona Cardinals

14 Michael Brockers St. Louis Rams

15 Bruce Irvin Seattle Seahawks

16 Quinton Coples New York Jets

Actual Draft


17 17 Dre Kirkpatrick Bengals 0

18 26 Whitney Mercilus Chargers 8

19 21 Chandler Jones Bears 2

20 24 David DeCastro Titans 4

21 41 Cordy Glenn Bengals 20

22 31 Doug Martin Browns 9

23 42 Jonathan Martin Lions 19

24 11 Dontari Poe Steelers 13

25 49 Kendall Reyes Broncos 24

26 43 Stephen Hill Texans 17

27 35 Courtney Upshaw Patriots 8

28 19 Shea McClellin Packers 9

29 25 Don’t’a Hightower Ravens 4

30 27 Kevin Zeitler 49ers 3

31 29 Harrison Smith Patriots 2

32 34 Coby Fleener Giants 2

Mel Kiper Jr. 2012

Pick Player Team

17 Dre Kirkpatrick Cincinnati Bengals

18 Melvin Ingram Chargers

19 Shea McClellin Chicago Bears

20 Kendall Wright Tennessee Titans

21 Chandler Jones Patriots

22 Brandon Weeden Cleveland Browns

23 Riley Reiff Detroit Lions

24 David DeCastro Pittsburgh Steelers

25 Dont'a Hightower Patriots

26 Whitney Mercilus Houston Texans

27 Kevin Zeitler Cincinnati Bengals

28 Nick Perry Green Bay Packers

29 Harrison Smith Minnesota Vikings

30 A.J. Jenkins 49ers

31 Doug Martin Buccaneers

32 David Wilson New York Giants

Actual Draft

Total Correct: 7Total Error: 179

Average Error: 179/32 = 5.59375 McNamara-Benton Error: 179/(32+7)=4.590


1 1 Andrew Luck Indianapolis 02 2 Robert Griffin III Washington 03 3 Trent Richardson Cleveland 04 6 Morris Claiborne Minnesota 25 9 Luke Kuechly Tampa Bay 46 4 Matt Kalil St. Louis 27 5 Justin Blackmon Jacksonville 28 8 Ryan Tannehill Miami 09 10 Stephon Gilmore Carolina 110 23 Riley Reiff Buffalo 1311 25 Dont'a Hightower Kansas City 1412 21 Chandler Jones Seattle 913 24 David DeCastro Arizona 1114 7 Mark Barron Dallas 715 12 Fletcher Cox Philadelphia 316 18 Melvin Ingram NY Jets 2

Matt Miller 2012

Pick Player Team

















Actual Draft


17 13 Michael Floyd Cincinnati 418 14 Michael Brocker San Diego 419 28 Nick Perry Chicago 920 41 Cordy Glenn Tennessee 2121 17 Dre Kirkpatrick Cincinnati 422 20 Kendall Wright Cleveland 223 26 Whitney Mercilus Detroit 324 16 Quinton Coples Pittsburgh 825 31 Doug Martin Denver 626 43 Stephen Hill Houston 1727 35 Courtney Upshaw NE 828 19 Shea McClellin Green Bay 929 15 Bruce Irvin Baltimore 1430 40 Amini Silatolu San Fran 1031 59 Vinny Curry NE 2832 34 Coby Fleener NY Giants 2

Matt Miller 2012

Pick Player Team

















Actual Draft


Average Error: 6.84375 McNamara-Benton Error: 219/(32+4)=6.083

Brute Force

Take the position most commonly selected at each draft pick over the last 8 years

Use NFL.com’s Big Board to pick players based on Big Board value and typical selection

Pick Actual Player Error Most Picked

1 1 Andrew Luck 0QB

2 4 Matt Kalil 2OL

3 2 RG 3 1QB

4 23 Riley Reiff 19OL

5 6 Morris Claiborne 1DB

6 24 David Decastro 18OL

7 5 Justin Blackmon 2WR

8 7 Mark Barron 1DB

9 12 Fletcher Cox 3DT

10 13 Michael Floyd 3WR

11 21 Chandler Jones 10DE

12 11 Dontari Poe 1DT

13 16 Quinton Coples 3DE

14 10 Stephon Gilmore 4DB

15 9 Luke Kuechly 6LB

1635

Courtney Upshaw 19DE

Brute 2012

Pick Player Team

















Actual Draft

Pick Player Team

















Actual Draft


Average Error: 349/32 = 10.90McNamara-Benton Error: 349/(32+1)=10.576

Pick Actual Player Error Most Picked

17 19 Shea McCelllin 2LB

18 59 Vinny Curry 41DE

19 41 Cordy Glenn 22OL

20 43 Stephen Hill23WR

21 34 Coby Fleener 13TE

22 8 Ryan Tannehill 14QB

23 27 Kevin Zeitler 4OL

24 29 Harrison Smith 5DB

25 62 Casey Hayward 37DB

26 18 Melvin Ingram 8DE

27 17 Dre Kirkpatrick 10DB

2826

Whitney Mercilus 2DE

2942

Johnathan Martin 13OL

30 20 Kendall Wright 10WR

31 66 Josh Robinson 35DB

32 15 Bruce Irvin 17DE

Brute 2012

Gauss Jordan

Gauss Jordan Elimination is a method used to solve linear systems of equations

Running Backs:

TR=9.4615x1 + 8.462x2 + 7x3 + 9.6x4 + 9.75x5 = 97

Player Sched StrengthTD total/game

Total yd/game 40 time yd/rush 100-Drafted

Trent Richardson 9.465153971 8.461538 7.011732 9.666667 9.755011 97Doug Martin 7.082658023 7.076923 5.610766 9.333333 9.820628 69David Wilson 9.124797407 4.461538 5.217391 9.666667 10 68Giovani Bernard 7.682333874 10 10 9.833333 9.668874 63Le'Veon Bell 10 6.538462 6.687371 8.333333 9.521739 52

X1 X2 X3 X4 X5

RB 8.798318894 11.28123 -14.3459 29.22719 -27.0296


1 43 Stephen Hill 42

2 45 Alshon Jeffery 43

3 2 Robert Griffin III 1

4 20 Kendall Wright 16

5 30 A.J. Jenkins 25

6 37 Mitchell Schwartz 31

7 8 Ryan Tannehill 1

8 23 Riley Reiff 15

9 29 Janoris Jenkins 20

10 4 Matt Kalil 6

11 33 Brian Quick 22

12 1 Andrew Luck 11

13 3 Trent Richardson 10

14 11 Dontari Poe 3

15 12 Fletcher Cox 3

16 6 Morris Claiborne 10

Pure Gauss 2012

Pick Player Team

















Actual Draft


17 36Derek Wolfe 19

18 7Mark Barron 11

19 21Chandler Jones 2

20 10Stephon Gilmore 10

21 25Dont'a Hightower 4

22 42Jonathan Martin 20

23 46Mychal Kendricks 23

24 31Doug Martin 7

25 17Dre Kirkpatrick 8

26 41Cordy Glenn 15

27 32David Wilson 5

28 35Courtney Upshaw 7

29 29Harrison Smith 0

30 34Coby Fleener 4

31 16Quinton Coples 15

32 44Jeff Allen 12

Pure Gauss 2012

Pick Player Team

















Actual Draft


Average Error: 421/32 = 13.156 McNamara-Benton Error: 421/(32+1)=12.757

Team Needs

Each team in the NFL has positions that they plan to fill every year

Use NFL.com’s Big Board to pick players based on Big Board value and Team Needs

Pick Team Need1 Need2 Need3

1Colts QB CB DT

2Redskins QB DE WR

3Browns WR OT DE

4Vikings WR OT DT

5Jaguars WR OT S

6Cowboys OG CB DE

7Buccaneers S RB LB

8Dolphins QB S LB

9Panthers OG WR LB

10Bills LB OT DL

11Chiefs OT DL LB

12Eagles LB OG OT

13Cardinals OT TE LB

14Rams WR DT DE

15Seahawks QB DE CB

16Jets OG LB DE

17Bengals RB DT OG

18Chargers OT DL S

19Bears OT WR S

20Titans DT S LB

21Patriots S WR DE

22Browns WR OT DE

23Lions CB LB OT

24Steelers OT OG DT

25Patriots S WR DE

26Texans OG DL S

27Bengals RB DT OG

28Packers DE LB S

29Vikings WR OT DT

3049ers CB WR DE

31Buccaneers S RB LB

32Giants TE DT OT


1 1 Andrew Luck Indianapolis 02 2 RG 3 Washington 03 4 Matt Kalil Cleveland 14 3 Trent Richardson Minnesota 15 7 Mark Barron Tampa Bay 26 5 Justin Blackmon St. Louis 17 13 Michael Floyd Jacksonville 68 6 Morris Claiborne Miami 29 9 Luke Kuechly Carolina 010 19 Shea McClellin Buffalo 911 21 Chandler Jones Kansas City 1012 10 Stephon Glimore Seattle 213 12 Fletcher Cox Arizona 114 11 Dontari Poe Dallas 315 25 Dont’a

Hightower Philadelphia 1016 23 Riley Reiff NY Jets 7

Team Need 2012

Pick Player Team

















Actual Draft


17 31 Doug Martin Cincinnati 1418 27 Kevin Zeitler San Diego 919 20 Kendall Wright Chicago 120 18 Melvin Ingram Tennessee 221 16 Quinton Coples Cincinnati 522 24 David DeCastro Cleveland 223 26 Whitney MercilusDetroit 324 41 Cordy Glenn Pittsburgh 1725 8 Ryan Tannehill Denver 1726 35 Courtney

Upshaw Houston 927 17 Dre Kirkpatrick NE 1028 59 Vinny Curry Green Bay 3129 51 Jerel Worthy Baltimore 2230 29 Harrison Smith San Fran 131 14 Michael Brockers NE 1732 42 Johnathan MartinNY Giants 10

Team Need 2012

Pick Player Team

















Actual Draft


Average Error: 7.03125 McNamara-Benton Error: 225/(32+3)=6.428

M-B Averages

Mel Kiper

Matt Miller Brute Gauss Team Needs

2012 4.950 6.083 10.578 12.757 6.428

2013 5.725 10.909 11.253 13.875 9.752

2014 6.5 8.1316 9.76 14.28 8.563

3 Year Avg 5.725 8.374533 10.53 13.63733 8.247

Our Goal: (5.725+8.3745)/2 = 7.05 M-B Average

Conclusion

There are some problems that algorithms cannot solve

Although we were able to get close to our goal, we had to use an expert’s Big Board to get there

Qualitative vs Quantitative Statistics

Why 380?

Used algorithms in hopes of solving a problem normally done by intuition

Became familiar with a complex algorithm that is seen often in Computer Science

Help better understand concepts that will be used in future classes

Future Works

Farm enough statistics to find a positive correlation

Combine all three algorithms to come up with importance for each

Questions

What is Gauss Jordan?

What dimensions must a Gauss Jordan array be?

Compare qualitative and quantitative statistics. Why is their difference relevant in 380?

Documents

Team Drafted: Nick Benton & Katie McNamara. Introduction Using algorithms to predict the order of the NFL Draft Brute Force Gauss-Jordan Team Needs