2014 National Baseball Arbitration Competition Jeff Samardzija v. Chicago Cubs

Submission on behalf of the Chicago Cubs Club’s offer: $4.7 million

Player’s offer: $5.1 million Midpoint: $4.9 million

Submission by: Team 25

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Table of Contents I. Introduction and Request for Hearing Decision ................................................................3 II. Length and Consistency of Career Contributions ............................................................3 III. Quality of the Player’s Contribution During the Past Season .........................................5 IV. Comparative Baseball Salaries .......................................................................................7 V. Past Player Compensation ................................................................................................10 VI. Existence of Physical or Mental Defects ........................................................................11 VII. Recent Performance of the Club ...................................................................................11 VIII. Conclusion ...................................................................................................................12 Table of Authorities BaseballProspectus, Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, LLC, http://www.baseballprospectus.com Baseball-Reference.com, Sports Reference, LLC, http://www.baseball-reference.com Brooks Baseball, brooksbaseball.net ESPN, ESPN: The Worldwide Leader in Sports, http://espn.go.com Fangraphs, http://www.fangraphs.com MLB.com/Cubs Major League Baseball, “2012-2016 Basic Agreement,” Article VI (E) §10 (a). p. 20-21. http://mlbplayers.mlb.com/pa/pdf/cba_english.pdf

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I. Introduction and Request for Hearing Decision

This brief analyzes the assets and contributions of pitcher Jeff Samardzija (“Samardzija”)

to be reflected in his 2014 contract with the Chicago Cubs (“the Cubs” or “the Club”).1 The

Major League Baseball (“MLB”) Collective Bargaining Agreement (“CBA”), which governs

arbitration hearings, establishes that the following criteria shall be considered in determining a

player’s award: (1) the quality of the player’s contribution to his club during the past season –

including, but not limited to, his overall performance, special qualities of leadership and public

appeal; (2) the length and consistency of his career contributions; (3) the record of the player’s

past compensation; (4) comparative baseball salaries; (5) the existence of any physical or mental

defects on the part of the player; and (6) the recent performance record of the club.2

Samardzija’s 4.028 years of MLB service time qualify him for second-year arbitration.

After debuting in 2008, Samardzija spent parts of four MLB seasons as a relief pitcher, before

finally becoming a full-time starting pitcher in 2012. Despite having been a major league pitcher

for six seasons, Samardzija has yet to consistently produce results in line with his undeniable

talent and potential. The Cubs have generously offered $4.7 million and Samardzija has

requested an award of $5.1 million. In light of his inconsistent track record, the Club’s offer is

more than reasonable, and the Cubs respectfully request a salary award of $4.7 million.

II. Length and Consistency of Career Contributions

Jeff Samardzija made his Major League debut on July 25, 2008, after being selected by

the Cubs in the 2006 MLB draft.3 At the beginning of his career, Samardzija worked primarily

1 Major League Baseball, “2012-2016 Basic Agreement,” Article VI (E) §10 (a). p. 20-21. http://mlbplayers.mlb.com/pa/pdf/cba_english.pdf 2 Id. 3 Jeff Samardzija Statistics and History, Baseball Reference, http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/samarje01.shtml

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as a relief pitcher and only became a full-time starter in 2012.4 Regardless of his role on the

pitching staff, Samardzija’s career has been marred by troubling inconsistency and mixed results.

Table 1 provides an overview of Samardzija’s statistical contribution to the Club:

Table 1: 5

Year Wins Losses Games Started

Innings Pitched ERA WHIP

Strikeout/ Walk Ratio

OPS against

2008 1 0 0 27.2 2.28 1.41 1.67 0.599 2009 1 3 2 34.2 7.53 1.76 1.4 0.981 2010 2 2 3 19.1 8.38 2.121 0.45 0.93 2011 8 4 0 88 2.97 1.295 1.74 0.613 2012 9 13 28 174.2 3.81 1.219 3.21 0.698 2013 8 13 33 213.2 4.34 1.348 2.74 0.736

Totals 29 35 66 558 4.19 1.355 2.29 0.723 Despite his periodic flashes of brilliance, Samardzija’s career ERA of 4.19 is higher than

the MLB average from 2008-2013 of 4.06.6 Furthermore, Table 1 shows that Samardzija has

been inconsistent and often ineffective in both his role as a reliever, and since 2012, as a starter.

Charts 1, 2, and 3 reveal a troubling history of yearly inconsistency in a variety of categories:7

4 Id. 5 Id. 6 Id. 7 Id.

0  

2  

4  

6  

8  

10  

2006   2008   2010   2012   2014  

Chart  1:  ERA  by  year  

0  

1  

2  

3  

2006   2008   2010   2012   2014  

Chart  2:  K/BB  

0.575  

0.675  

0.775  

0.875  

0.975  

2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   2012   2013   2014  

Chart  3:  OPS  by  year  

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Even when the analysis is limited to Samardzija’s time as a starter (2012-2013), a

familiar pattern of inconsistency is clear8:

Jeff Samardzija’s inability to consistently produce results in line with his abilities is

apparent on both a monthly and yearly basis. As a result, his career number consist of a below

average ERA (4.19) and a disappointing win-loss record of 29-35. While Samardzija’s career

statistics may or may not be indicative of his talent level, his track record is that of an unreliable

pitcher, making him a risky investment for the 2014 season.

III. Quality of Samardzija’s Contribution to the Club in 2013 The 2013 season marked Samardzija’s second year as a full-time starting pitcher. As

shown in Table 2, Samardzija finished the year with a record of 8-13, and an ERA of 4.34 over

213.2 IP. Despite a strong start to the year, Samardzija’s final 2013 numbers show a substantial

regression from 2012:

Table 2:9 Year W L GS IP ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9 OPS 2012 9 13 28 174.2 3.81 1.219 9.3 2.9 0.698 2013 8 13 33 213.2 4.34 1.348 9.0 3.3 0.736

In 2013, Samardzija set career highs in Games Started and Innings Pitched, but failed to

match his 2012 numbers in Wins, ERA, WHIP, K/9, BB/9, and OPS against. Samardzija’s ERA

8 Jeff Samardzija Player Page, ESPN.com, http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29166/jeff-samardzija 9 Jeff Samardzija Statistics and History, Baseball Reference, http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/samarje01.shtml

0.00  

5.00  

10.00  Chart  4:  ERA  by  month  (2012-­‐2013)  

ERA  

League  Average  

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of 4.34 was 0.53 runs higher than his 2012 mark, and a troubling 0.4 runs higher than the 2013

MLB average of 3.94. Overall, Samardzija was the only pitcher in all baseball with 13+ losses,

a 4.30+ERA, and 77+ walks.10

A closer look into Samardzija’s monthly production reveals a concerning trend:

Table 3: 2013 Monthly Splits11 Month ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9 OPS

March/April 3.35 1.168 11.2 3.39 0.612 May 2.21 0.914 8.5 2.57 0.545 June 4.2 1.475 8.9 2.91 0.773 July 5.28 1.565 7.6 5.07 0.846

August 5.54 1.487 8.1 3.00 0.791 September 5.58 1.5 9.7 3.28 0.848

Following an impressive start to the year, Samardzija began to substantially regress from

June through the end of the season; he had an ERA of 5.11 over his final 22 starts. Although he

was able to pitch an impressive 213.2 innings, the accomplishment is undermined by the fact that

he became less and less effective as his innings count climbed. In fact, of the 36 pitchers that

threw 200+ innings in 2013, Samardzija had the second highest ERA.12 Obviously, the alarming

trend and inability to pitch effectively in the second half of the season raises serious concerns as

to whether he will be valuable the latter part of future seasons, and particularly during a potential

playoff run. The following table suggests that fatigue played a role in Samardzija’s decline, as

the data shows that his struggles coincided with a drop in average fastball velocity:13

Table 4: Month ERA WHIP Fastball (mph) April 3.35 1.168 95.78 May 2.21 0.914 96.02 June 4.2 1.475 95.81 July 5.28 1.565 95.41

10 Fangraphs 2013 Pitching Leaders, http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0 11 Jeff Samardzija Player Page, ESPN.com, http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/_/id/29166/jeff-samardzija 12 ESPN Pitching Leaders 2013. http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitching/_/sort/thirdInnings 13 Jeff Samardzija, Brooks Baseball, http://www.brooksbaseball.net/velo.php?player=502188&b_hand=-1&gFilt=&pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&time=game&minmax=ci&var=mph&s_type=2&startDate=03/30/2007&endDate=01/11/2014

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August 5.54 1.487 94.26 September 5.58 1.5 94.97

As Table 4 indicates, Samardzija’s best month (May) coincided with his highest average

fastball velocity. After achieving peak velocity in May, Samardzija’s average velocity dropped

every month until August. His May to August velocity drop of 1.76 mph, likely contributed to

his ERA spiking 3.33 runs from 2.21 in May to 5.54 in August. Samardzija’s salary request of

$5.1M suggests a desire to be paid as an established, reliable starting pitcher. However, unlike

the pitchers that have received comparable salaries, Samardzija does not have a track record

suggesting that he can remain effective during the most important part of the season.

V. Comparative Baseball Salaries

Several starting pitchers that have recently gone through arbitration provide useful

comparisons due to similar statistics or salary requests. The cases of John Lannan, Justin Vargas,

and Jonathan Sanchez are especially relevant and verify that that team’s offer of $4.7 million

accurately reflects Samardzija’s value to the Cubs. Prior to discussing each of the comparable

pitchers, it is important to first determine which statistical categories tend to drive the market.

A. Market Analysis

An analysis of recent arbitration awards reveals that total career and platform wins, and

career innings pitched and games started primarily drive the arbitration market for second-year

eligible starting pitchers. Other categories, including ERA, strikeouts, and batting average

against have very little, if any, correlation to salary awards. Tables 6-14 show the arbitration

awards plotted with the various statistical categories of the 24 second-year eligible pitchers that

had at least 250 career IP and 40 IP in the platform season from 2011 and 2012. Each graph

includes a trendline and correlation coefficient (R²) to demonstrate the strength of the relation.

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As the graphs show (summarized in Table 14), there is a very strong correlation to the

awarded salary with respect to certain categories, and almost no correlation whatsoever to others.

The recent starting pitching arbitration cases provide a clear picture of what numbers drive the

market. In addition to the overarching market considerations, it is helpful to consider this case in

light of the cases of other, similarly situated starting pitchers in recent years.

R²  =  0.65825  

$0  

$2,000,000  

$4,000,000  

$6,000,000  

$8,000,000  

$10,000,000  

200.00   400.00   600.00   800.00  

Table  6:  Salary  to  Career  IP  

R²  =  0.63728  

$0  

$2,000,000  

$4,000,000  

$6,000,000  

$8,000,000  

$10,000,000  

10   20   30   40   50   60  

Table  7:  Salary  to  Career  W  

R²  =  0.52701  

$0  

$2,000,000  

$4,000,000  

$6,000,000  

$8,000,000  

$10,000,000  

0   20   40   60   80   100  120  140  

Table  8:  Career  GS  

R²  =  0.71821  

$0  

$2,000,000  

$4,000,000  

$6,000,000  

$8,000,000  

$10,000,000  

0   5   10   15   20  

Table  9:  PlaHorm  Wins  

R²  =  0.19179  

$0  

$2,000,000  

$4,000,000  

$6,000,000  

$8,000,000  

$10,000,000  

3.10   3.60   4.10   4.60   5.10  

Table  10:  Career  ERA  

R²  =  0.12218  

$0  

$2,000,000  

$4,000,000  

$6,000,000  

$8,000,000  

$10,000,000  

160.00  170.00  180.00  190.00  200.00  210.00  220.00  

Table  11:  PlaHorm  IP  (Qualifying)  

R²  =  0.00411  

$0  

$2,000,000  

$4,000,000  

$6,000,000  

$8,000,000  

$10,000,000  

4.100  5.100  6.100  7.100  8.100  9.100  

Table  12:  Career  K/9  

R²  =  0.00164  

$0  

$2,000,000  

$4,000,000  

$6,000,000  

$8,000,000  

$10,000,000  

0.210   0.230   0.250   0.270   0.290  

Table  13:  Career  BAA   Table 14: Strength of Correlation

Category Correlation Platform W 0.7182 Career IP 0.6582 Career W 0.6373

Career GS 0.527 Career ERA 0.1918 Platform IP 0.1222 Career K/9 0.0041

Career BAA 0.0016

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B. John Lannan

Lannan provides an excellent comparison, as his second-year eligible salary of $5.0

million is just above the midpoint in the present case. Neither Samardzija’s platform season nor

career stats match those of Lannan and therefore, it would be illogical to award a higher salary.

Table 15: Jeff Samardzija-John Lannan Comparison14

Career Platform Year

W L GS IP ERA K/9 W L GS IP ERA K/9 Award Samardzija 29 35 66 558 4.19 9.0 8 13 33 213.2 4.34 8.6 $4,900,000 Lannan 38 51 128 751 4.00 4.7 10 13 33 184.2 3.70 5.2 $5,000,000

Table 15 indicates that Lannan has the statistical advantage in each of the four categories

shown to drive the market (Platform/Career Wins, Career GS, Career IP). Additionally, both

Lannan’s career and platform ERAs are superior to those of Samardzija. Samardzija’s

advantages are limited to career and platform K/9 and platform IP, each of which was proven to

have very little impact on the market of second year eligible starting pitchers. When comparing

the two, it is clear that Lannan is superior in every significant statistical category; therefore, it

would be unreasonable to award a higher salary than was awarded to Lannan in 2012.

C. Jason Vargas

Left hander Jason Vargas also serves as a useful comparison, as his 2012 arbitration

award of $4,850,000 is very close to the midpoint. Table 16 provides a statistical breakdown:

Table 16: Jeff Samardzija-Jason Vargas Comparison15

Career Platform Year

W L GS IP ERA K/9 W L GS IP ERA K/9 Award Samardzija 29 35 66 558.0 4.19 9.0 8 13 33 213.2 4.34 8.6 $4,900,000 Vargas 28 39 97 612.1 4.53 5.7 10 13 32 201 4.25 5.9 $4.850,000

While Samardzija’s platform and career stats are closer to those of Vargas than Lannan,

Vargas still has the advantage in three of the four market-driving categories (Career GS, Career

IP, Platform W) and is only one career win behind Samardzija in the fourth. Vargas also has the

14 John Lannan Statistics and History, Baseball Reference, http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lannajo01.shtml 15 Jason Vargas Statistics and History, Baseball Reference, http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vargaja01.shtml

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advantage in platform ERA, and trails in other categories that were shown to have little effect on

salary awards (Career ERA, K/9, platform IP). Due to Vargas’s advantages in 3 of the 4 vital

categories, and the fact that his career numbers are less volatile than those of Samardzija, it

would be unreasonable to award a salary higher than the $4.85 million given to Vargas in 2012.

D. Jonathan Sanchez

Jonathan Sanchez went through his second year of arbitration in January 2011, and

provides a useful comparison due to the salary that he was awarded.

Table 17: Jeff Samardzija-Jonathan Sanchez Comparison16

Career Platform Year

W L GS IP ERA K/9 W L GS IP ERA K/9 Award

Samardzija 29 35 66 558.0 4.19 9.0 8 13 33 213.2 4.34 8.6 $4,900,000 Sanchez 34 39 99 606.2 4.26 9.4 13 9 33 193.1 3.07 9.5 $4,800,000

Table 17 clearly illustrates Sanchez’s statistical superiority. In addition to holding

substantial advantages in each of the four market-driving categories, Sanchez leads in career and

platform K/9, and platform ERA. Additionally, Sanchez improved significantly in each of the

three seasons preceding his case. Notably, his ERA decreased by at least 0.6 runs each season

from 2007 (5.88 ERA), to his platform year of 2011 (3.07 ERA). At the time of his case,

Jonathan Sanchez compared favorably to Samardzija in each of the significant statistical

categories, and showed a trend of improvement. Based on Samardzija’s numbers and history of

inconsistency, it would be unreasonable to award a salary above the $4.8M given to Sanchez.

IV. Past Compensation The career earnings of Jeff Samardzija present a unique and important issue to be

considered. Most MLB players earn close to the league minimum salary during the first three

years of their careers. Accordingly, the arbitration process is typically the first opportunity that a

player has to earn a salary commensurate with his accomplishments. Samardzija, however, was

16 Jonathan Sanchez Statistics and History, http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sanchjo01.shtml

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drafted in 2006 and immediately signed to a major league contract that paid him substantially

more than most players receive early in their careers.17 In fact, due to his unique contract,

Samardzija was paid millions of dollars for seasons spent in the minor leagues. Through 2010,

for example, Samardzija had pitched only 81.2 innings, but had already earned $9,000,000.

Table 18 shows the vast discrepancy between the career earnings of Samardzija and the

pitchers discussed above, prior to receiving their salary for the second year of arbitration:

Table 18: Career Earnings (*=salary award)18

Samardzija Lannan Vargas Sanchez

2007 $2,000,000

$381,000 2008 $2,000,000

$327,000 $395,000

2009 $2,000,000

$394,000 $455,000 2010 $3,000,000 $424,000 $405,000 $2,100,000 2011 $3,300,000 $458,000 $412,500 ($4,800,000)* 2012 $2,640,000 $2,750,000 $2,450,000

2013 $2,640,000 ($5,000,000)* ($4,850,000)* Total: $17,580,000 $3,632,000 $3,988,500 $3,331,000

As Table 18 indicates, Samardzija has been earning a salary commensurate with, and for

many years, much higher than, his value to the Club. At this point in his career, Samardzija has

earned $6,628,500 more than Lannan, Vargas, and Sanchez combined at the same point.

VI. Existence of Physical or Mental Defects

Jeff Samardzija has no known physical or mental defects.

VII. Recent Performance Record of the Club

The Cubs have struggled in recent years. The team has won more than 83 games only

once over the six seasons that Samardzija has been with the team.19 The overall team record

during that span is a disappointing 453-517, for a winning percentage of 46.7%20. Accordingly,

the Cubs have appeared in the playoffs only once during Samardzija’s career and have failed to

17 Jeff Samardzija Statistics and History, Baseball Reference, http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/samarje01.shtml 18 All salary figures were taken from player pages on Baseballreference.com. 19 ESPN.com Yearly Standings. 20MLB.com Club’s Yearly Standings/Attendance, http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/chc/history/year_by_year_results.jsp

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do so in each of the last five seasons. The past two seasons, which account for the majority of

Samardzija’s innings pitched, have been particularly disappointing. During 2012 and 2013, the

team posted a combined record of 127-197, and finished in 5th place in the division both years.

Year W L 2004 89 73 2005 79 83 2006 66 96 2007 85 77 2008 97 64 2009 83 78 2010 75 87 2011 71 91 2012 61 101 2013 66 96

Since a terrific 2008 season that included a division championship and postseason

appearance, the Cubs have regressed considerably. Additionally, the team’s average attendance

has decreased significantly from 40,783 fans/game in 2008 to 32,625 in 2013.21 Though

Samardzija is certainly not the sole reason for the Club’s struggles and falling attendance, there

has been a clear pattern of team regression since his debut in 2008.

VIII. Conclusion

The Cubs acknowledge that Jeff Samardzija has shown periodic flashes of excellence

suggesting that he has the potential to be a more successful pitcher than his career statistics have

shown. The team, however, remains concerned that after pitching in parts of six MLB seasons,

the discussion of Jeff Samardzija still revolves around inconsistent results and unfulfilled

potential. In light of his career statistics, the team feels that its offer of $4.7 million is very

generous, and substantially more reasonable than the $5.1 million requested by Samardzija.

Accordingly, the Club respectfully requests a salary award of $4.7 million for the season.

21 Id.