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Ti chnh quc t
(International Finance)
V. Cn cn thanh ton(Balance of Payment-BP)
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TS. Nguyn Phc Hin - i hc Ngoi thng2
Cn cn thanh ton
1. Khi nim2. C cu v cc cn cn b phn
3. Nguyn tc hch ton kp ca BP4. Thng d v thm ht BP5. Hiu ng tuyn J6. Cc bin s trong nn kinh t m
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TS. Nguyn Phc Hin - i hc Ngoi thng4
1. Khi nim Nhng ngi khng hi 2 iu kin trn u tr
thnh ngi khng c tr Mt s lu xc nh ngi c tr v khng c tr
trong cn cn thanh ton: Quc tch v ngi c tr Cc t chc quc t nh IMF, WB, ADB vv... l ngi khng c
tr i vi mi quc gia, ngay c vi quc gia m t chc ngtr s.
Cc i s qun, cn c qun s nc ngoi, cc lu hc sinh,
khch du lch vv... u l ngi khng c tr vi nc n vl ngi c tr i vi nc i. Cc cty a quc gia s l ngi c tr ng thi ti nhiu quc
gia (chi nhnh nc no th ngi c tr nc )
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TS. Nguyn Phc Hin - i hc Ngoi thng5
1. Khi nim Nguyn tc a 1 giao dch kinh t vo BP
- Giao dch phi tin hnh gia ngi c tr v ngikhng c tr.
- Giao dch ngi c tr-c tr; khng c tr-khng ctr khng c a vo BP. ng tin s dng trong ghi chp BP: Cc nc pht trin bng ni t Cc nc ang pht trin USD IMF s dng SDR Ngoi ra c th cc ng tin khc nhau v theo t gi
cho
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TS. Nguyn Phc Hin - i hc Ngoi thng6
2. C cu v cc cn cn b phn
a. Cn cn vng lai (current account balance-AC)b. Cn cn vn (capital balance)c. Li v sai st (net error omission OM)d. Cn cn tng th (overall balance OB)e. Cn cn b p chnh thc (official financing
balance-OFB)
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TS. Nguyn Phc Hin - i hc Ngoi thng7
a. Cn cn vng lai c im: Phn nh vic chuyn giao quyn s hu gia
ngi c tr v ngi khng c tr Bao gm: Cn cn thng mi Trade balance Balance on goods
(visible): xut nhp khu hng ha Cn cn dch v - Service balance Gm: vn ti, du lch, ngn hng, bo him, bu chnh vin thng,
hng khng, thng tin, xy dng v cc dch v khc Cn cn thu nhp Income balance Thu nhp ngi lao ng v thu nhp v u t
Cn cn chuyn giao vng lai mt chiu unrequitedtransfersCc khon vin tr khng hon li, qu tng, qu biu v cc khonchuyn giao khc bng tin v hin vt vi mc ch tiu dng
AC = TB + SB + IB + Tr = VB + InVS
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TS. Nguyn Phc Hin - i hc Ngoi thng 8
Current account balance
Current account balance (percent of GDP at current market price)
-13
-11
-9-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Vietnam China Thailand South Korea
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TS. Nguyn Phc Hin - i hc Ngoi thng 9
Trade balance
Trade balance (percent of GDP at current market price)
-15
-13
-11
-9
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Vietnam China Thailand South Korea Source: ADB
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TS. Nguyn Phc Hin - i hc Ngoi thng 10
Balance of service, income and others,Vietnam
-6000
-5000
-4000
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Million
USD
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TS. Nguyn Phc Hin - i hc Ngoi thng11
a. Cn cn vng lai
Nhng nhn t nh hng: T gi hi oi Tc ng n cn cn thng mi v dch v Ph thuc vo co dn ca t gi vi s lng hng ha xut nhp
khu Lm pht Ga c hng ha th gii Thu nhp ca ngi khng c tr
Hng ro thu quan v phi thu quan
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TS. Nguyn Phc Hin - i hc Ngoi thng 12
Trade balance and exchange rate Vietnam
-14000
-12000
-10000
-8000
-6000
-4000
-2000
0
2000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
MillionUSD
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
USD/VND
Trade balance
Exchange rate
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TS. Nguyn Phc Hin - i hc Ngoi thng 13
Trade balance and exchange rate China
-50000
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
MillionUSD
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
USD/CNY
Trade balance
Exchange rate
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TS. Nguyn Phc Hin - i hc Ngoi thng14
b. Cn cn vn c im: Phn nh s chuyn giao quyn s dng v ti sn gia
ngi c tr v ngi khng c tr Bao gm: Cn cn vn di hn u t trc tip: thng trn 30% vn gp u t gin tip: tri phiu cty, chnh ph, c phiu nhng cha kim
sot c cty nc ngoi Tn dng di hn thuc khu vc nh nc (ODA) v thng mi thuc
khu vc t nhn Cn cn vn ngn hn Tn dng thng mi ngn hn Mua bn cc giy t c gi Kinh doanh ngoi hi Chuyn giao vn mt chiu: Cc khon vin tr khng hon li vi mc ch u t, xa n
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TS. Nguyn Phc Hin - i hc Ngoi thng15
Cn cn c bn (basis balance)
Cn cn c bn = cn cn vng lai + cn cn vn di hn
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TS. Nguyn Phc Hin - i hc Ngoi thng16
c. Li v sai st (OM)
Phn nh nhng sai st v li trong thng k chobng cn bng cn cn thanh ton.
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TS. Nguyn Phc Hin - i hc Ngoi thng 17
Net error and omissions,Vietnam
-14000
-12000
-10000
-8000
-6000
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Million
USD
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TS. Nguyn Phc Hin - i hc Ngoi thng18
d. Cn cn tng th
OB = CA + K + OM
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TS. Nguyn Phc Hin - i hc Ngoi thng 19
Overall balanceOverall balance (percent of GDP at current market price)
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
46
8
10
12
14
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Vietnam China Thailand South Korea Source: ADB
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TS. Nguyn Phc Hin - i hc Ngoi thng20
Cn cn b p chnh thc (OFB)
Bao gm: Thay i d tr ngoi hi quc gia (dR) Tn dng vi IMF v cc NHTW khc (loans L) Thay i d tr ngoi hi ca NHTW khc bng
ng tin ca quc gia lp cn cn thanh ton()
OFB = dR + L +
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TS. Nguyn Phc Hin - i hc Ngoi thng21
Tm tt cn cn thanh ton
(1) CA = TB + S + I + Tr(2) K = Kl + Ks + Ktr(3) BB = CA + Kl
(4) OB = CA + K + OM(5) OFB = dR + L + (6) OB + OFB = 0
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TS. Nguyn Phc Hin - i hc Ngoi thng 22
Total reserves of Vietnam (in USD)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Million
USD
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TS. Nguyn Phc Hin - i hc Ngoi thng23
3. Nguyn tc bt ton kp
Khi nim:BP c hch ton tho bt ton kp, nghal mi giao dch gia ngi c tr v ngi khng c tru c ghi bng hai bt ton c gi tr tuyt i bngnhau nhng ngc du.
Cu trc BP Bn c (credit): phn nh cc khon thu (receipt) Bn n (debit): phn nh cc khon chi (expenditure)
Qui tc Mi khon thu (+) u phi chi (-) Mi khon chi (-) u phi c thu (+)
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TS. Nguyn Phc Hin - i hc Ngoi thng24
3. Nguyn tc bt ton kp Ghi c (+) mi khon thu phn nh lung tin vo:- Cc khon thu t ngi khng c tr (XK HH v DV, thu
li sut, c tc, li nhun ...)- Cc lung vn chy vo (i vay, bn ti sn nc
ngoi...)- Cc giao dich lm gim gi tr ti sn ca nc mnh
nc ngoi- Cc giao dch lm tng ti sn ca nc ngoi nc
mnh
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TS. Nguyn Phc Hin - i hc Ngoi thng25
3. Nguyn tc bt ton kp Ghi n (-) mi khon chi phn nh lung tin ra:- Cc khon chi cho ngi khng c tr (NK HH v DV, tr
li sut, tr li nhun...)- Cc lung vn chy ra (cho vay, mua ti sn nc
ngoi...)- Cc giao dich lm tng gi tr ti sn ca nc mnh
nc ngoi- Cc giao dch lm gim ti sn ca nc ngoi nc
mnh
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TS. Nguyn Phc Hin - i hc Ngoi thng26
4. Thng d hay thm ht BP
Lu : Khi ni n thng d hay thm ht cn cnthanh ton, ngi ta mun ni n thng d hay thmht ca mt hay mt nhm cc cn cn b phn nhtnh trong BP
V sao?
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TS. Nguyn Phc Hin - i hc Ngoi thng28
4. Thng d hay thm ht BP
Thng d hay thm ht cn cn thng mi Cn cn thng mi thng d (xut siu): X>M Cn cn thng mi thm ht (nhp siu): X< M Cn cn thng mi cn bng: X=M L b phn quan trng v c bn ca cn cn vng lai Phn nh xu hng ca cn cn vng lai Tc ng mnh n t gi
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TS. Nguyn Phc Hin - i hc Ngoi thng 29
Current Account and trade balance, Vietnam
percent of GDP at current market price
-15
-13
-11
-9
-7
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
current account trade balance
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TS. Nguyn Phc Hin - i hc Ngoi thng30
4. Thng d hay thm ht BP
Thng d hay thm ht cn cn tng th Mi thm ht trong cn cn tng th phi c ti tr
bng:- Gim d tr ngoi hi- Vay IMF v cc NHTW khc- Tng ti sn n ti cc NHTW nc ngoi Ch thch hp vi nc p dng ch t gi c nh Khng ph hp vi nhng nc p dng ch t gi
th ni, v sao?
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TS. Nguyn Phc Hin - i hc Ngoi thng31
5. Hiu ng tuyn J (J curve effect)
(1) Ph gi tin t c ci thin c cn cnthng mi?
(2) Nng gi tin t c lm gim thng d cn cn
thng mi?(3) ph gi v nng gi thnh cng th cn
phi lm g?
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TS. Nguyn Phc Hin - i hc Ngoi thng32
5. Hiu ng tuyn J (J curve effect)
Cch tip cn ca Marshall-Lerner Kt lun Trong ngn hn thay i t gi tc n gi c hng ha Trong di hn thay i t gi tc ng n thay i sn
lng xut nhp khu Trong ngn hn cn cn thng mi tc ng ngc
chiu vi s mong mun, nhng trong di hn c th tcng theo mong mun (ty thuc vo co dn)
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TS Nguyn Phc Hin i hc Ngoi thng33
6. Cc bin s trong nn kinh t m