TAS Steering Group MeetingDWG Update

July 16, 2015

Jamie Austin, PacifiCorpDWG - Chair

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Overview

• Present Work Plan • Hurdles • Prospects for Clearing Hurdles • Potential Work Plan Adjustments

Jamie AustinJamie AustinDan BecksteadJamie Austin

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Present Work Plan • There is no Present Work Plan! • However, DWG has been working on the following in

anticipation of building the TEPPC 2026 CC:– Reviewed the NREL new energy shapes for wind and solar– Reviewed the NREL methodology for calculating wind and

solar capacity – Reviewed and determined what would be the appropriate

coincident energy shape year

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Hurdles

• The staff’s full focus has been on the 2015 study program, although, the sentiments from the last TEPPC\TAS meetings were to also start building the new TEPPC 2026CC database.– The TEPPC 2024CC has three-year-old load forecast, developed in

2012.– Stakeholders, including the regions, need a new database in Q1 – 2016– Stakeholders are willing to help build the TEPPC 2026CC provided we

have staff support to develop:• New Heat Rate Curves for thermal plants• Updated unit commitment parameter for thermal plants (e.g. start up

costs, etc.)• New L&R data (including plant retirement and replacement)• New Fuel prices• Etc.

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Pending• For the coincident energy shape year, Dan reported that “2009-2013 wouldn’t make bad

candidates if other factors need consideration”. His decision was based on high level analysis that used recent 5-year annual data for the entire WECC. Meeting participants asked for more a refined analysis that includes:

– Data from 2007 – 2013 consistent with the time period that is covered by the NREL data and provide an explanation for the Near 10,000 MW upward shift evident when compared with years 2009 – 2013.

– Given that Dan’s load analysis used annual data for the entire WECC, it will help to also view seasonal load differences by region for years 2008 and 2009.

• Bri-Mathias Hodge, explained that NREL has:– No data on a representative “Average Wind Shapes Year”– No data on a representative” Average Solar Shapes Year”

• Year 2009 was marginally closer to an average hydro-year for CA, however, Kevin and representatives from BPA & NWPCC all agree 2008 is better representative hydro-average year in the Northwest (NW hydro energy is four times of that in CA):

Total Volume (kaf) Annual Jan-Jul

• Year 2008 127 100• Year 2009 120 93• Average (84 yrs) 131 102

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Prospects for Clearing Hurdles

• Dan Beckstead Discussion

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Potential Work Plan Adjustments

• The “round trip” is working and it offers more than just exporting one hour to solve in power flow. It is also a process that allows for importing any power flow case simply and expediently… what this means is that it automates the process of building new production cost model databases (e.g., the TEPPC 2026CC).

• The question becomes, why would we want to wait until next year to start this effort? In my view, delaying development of the new database will encourage the regions to move forward on their own.

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