Target: Discuss human population dynamics by

Describe factors that affect population growthInterpret population graphsCompare population growth issues in developed vs. developing countries

Population change = (Births + Immigration) – (Deaths + Emigration)

Crude Birth Rate: number of live births per 1,000 people in a population in a given year

Crude Death Rate: number of deaths per 1,000 people in a population in a given year

Annual rate of natural population change (%) = (Birth rate – Death rate)/1,000 person x 100

Average crude birth rate Average crude death rate

World

All developedcountries

All developingcountries

Developingcountries

(w/o China)

21

9

11

10

24

8

27

9

© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning

Exponential population growth has not disappeared but is occurring at a slower rate. Between 1963 to 2004, annual rate of natural

population change dropped from 2.2% to 1.25%. Annual rate of natural population change differs

between developed and developing countries: In 2004, 0.1% in developed countries In 2004, 1.5% in developing countries

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India

USA

Indonesia

Brazil

Pakistan

Russia

Bangladesh

Japan

Nigeria

2004 2025

1.3 billion1.4 billion

1.1 billion1.4 billion

294 million

349 million

219 million308 million

179 million

211 million

159 million

229 million

144 million137 million

141 million

205 million

128 million

121 million

137 million206 million

Rule of 70:Doubling time (in years) = 70/ rate of

growth (%)

Using the current annual rate of natural growth…70 / 1.25% = 56 years for the world’s

population to double70 / 2.8% = 25 years for Nigeria’s

population to double

Replacement-Level Fertility: number of children a couple must bear to replace themselves2.1 in developed countriesas high as 2.5 in developing countries

Total Fertility Rate: average number of children a woman typical has during reproductive years1.5 in developed countries3.1 in developing countries with 5.2 in

Africa in 2004

World

Developedcountries

Developingcountries

Africa

LatinAmerica

Asia

Oceania

NorthAmerica

Europe

5 children per woman2.8

2.5

1.6

6.53.1

6.65.1

5.92.6

5.92.6

3.82.1

3.52.0

2.61.4

1950 2004

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High (2.5)

Med. (2.0)

Low (1.5)

12

11

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

21950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

High10.6

Medium8.9

Low7.2

Year

Po

pu

lati

on

(b

illio

ns)

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.02.1

1.5

1.0

0.5

01920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

Bir

ths

per

wo

man

Baby boom(1946-64)

Replacement level

600

500

400

300

200

100

1900

1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

2020

2040

2060

2080

2100

76

292

571

Total population

Projections

Year

Po

pu

lati

on

in m

illio

ns

United States Mexico Canada

Population(2004)

Projected population(2025)

349 million

Infant mortality rate

Lifeexpectancy

Total fertilityrate (TFR)

% populationunder age 15

% populationover age 65

Per capitaGDP PPP

294 million106 million

32 million

150million36 million

6.725

5.2

2.02.8

1.7

21%35%

18%

12%

13%5%

$8,790

77 years75 years

79 years

$36,110

$31,892

© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning

47 years77 years

8%81%

15%

83%

10%98%

2%99%

10%52%

$15$3

1.25.8

1900

2000

Life expectancy

Married women workingoutside the home

High school graduates

Homes with flush toilets

Homes with electricity

Living in suburbs

Hourly manufacturing jobwage (adjusted for inflation)

Homocides per100,000 people

Importance of child labor Cost of raising a family Availability of pension Urbanization Education and employment for women Infant mortality Average age at marriage Availability of reliable birth control

methods and legal abortion Religious beliefs & traditions

Life expectancy: average number of years a newborn infant can expect to live

Infant morality rate: number of babies out of every 1,000 born who die before their first birthday Single best measure of a society’s quality of

life 40 countries have lower infant mortality rates

than the US due to… Inadequate health care Drug addiction High teenage birth rate

Age structure: distribution of males and females in each age group3 age categories

Prereproductive (0 to 14) Reproductive (15 to 44) Postreproductive (ages 45 and up)

Male Female

Rapid GrowthGuatemala

NigeriaSaudi Arabia

Slow GrowthUnited States

AustraliaCanada

Male Female

Ages 0-14 Ages 15-44 Ages 45-85+

© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning

30% of world population is under 15 years old.

Zero GrowthSpainAustriaGreece

Negative GrowthGermanyBulgariaSweden

Male Female Male Female

Ages 0-14 Ages 15-44 Ages 45-85+

© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning

6

100+

95-99

90-94

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

60-64

55-59

50-54

45-49

40-44

35-39

30-34

25-29

20-24

15-19

10-14

5-9

0-4

Male

Female

Percent of population 1900

Ag

e

5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

100+

95-99

90-94

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

60-64

55-59

50-54

45-49

40-44

35-39

30-34

25-29

20-24

15-19

10-14

5-9

0-4

Male

Female

Percent of population 2000

Ag

e

5 4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4 5

100+

95-99

90-94

85-89

80-84

75-79

70-74

65-69

60-64

55-59

50-54

45-49

40-44

35-39

30-34

25-29

20-24

15-19

10-14

5-9

0-4

Male

Female

Percent of population 2050

Ag

e

4 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 4

Population(2004)

Populationprojected

(2025)

Infantmortality

rate

Lifeexpectancy

Fertilityrate (TFR)

%Populationunder

age 15

% Populationover

age 65

Per capitaGNI PPP

294 million179 million

137 million

349 million211 million

206 million

6.733

100

77 years

71 years52 years

2.02.2

5.7

21%30%

44%

12%6%

3%

$36,110$7,450

$800

United States (highly developed)

Brazil (moderately developed)

Nigeria (less developed)

© 2004 Brooks/Cole – Thomson Learning

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

01950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 2110 2130 2150

Year

Ag

e D

istr

ibu

tio

n (

%)

Under age 15 Age 60 or over Age 80 or over

Demographic Transitions: as countries become more industrialized, first their death rates then birth rates decline.4 stages

Preindustrial Transitional Industrial Postindustrial

Low

High

Rel

ati

ve

po

pu

lati

on

siz

e

Bir

th r

ate

an

d d

eath

rat

e(n

um

ber

per

1,0

00 p

er

yea

r)

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Stage 1Preindustrial

Stage 2Transitional

Stage 3Industrial

Stage 4Postindustrial

Low Increasing Very high Decreasing Low Zero Negative

Birth rate

Total population

Death rate

Growth rate over time

Demographic Trap: when a country stays at stage 2 because population growth exceeds economic growth.

Reasons why countries get caught:Shortage of skilled workers to produce high-

tech products to compete in a global economy

Lack of financial capital and other resourcesSharp rise of debt to developed countriesDecreased economic assistance from

developed countries

Percentageof world

population

Population

Population (2025)(estimated)

Illiteracy (%of adults)

Population under age 15(%)

Population growth rate (%)

Total fertility rate

Infant mortality rate

Life expectancy

GDP PPP per capita

17%20%

1.1 billion1.3 billion

1.4 billion

1.4 billion

47%17%

36%

22%

1.7%0.6%

3.1 children per woman (down from 5.3 in 1970)1.7 children per woman (down from 5.7 in 1972)

6432

62 years

71 years

$2,650

$4,520

IndiaChina