Taran Thune

Taran Thune

Senter for teknologi, innovasjon og kultur

Universitetet i Oslo

taranmt@tik.uio.no

mailto:taranmt@tik.uio.no

The petroleum industry will no longer be the engine of economic growth. New jobs must replace the ones that will disappear due to reduced activity in oil and gas.

We do not know which industries will replace it, but we know a lot about the challenges Norway will have to solve to succeed in its transition from uniqueness to a transformed economy.

(Prime minister Erna Solberg, E24, 17.04.2015)

Foto: Frode Hansen/ VG

Megatrends - a broad agenda for change

• Industrial transformation and diversification due to long-term projected drop in petroleum activity

• Calls for a green shift and increased attention to sustainability

• Pervasive use of digital tools with broad implications for jobs and welfare

How do such trends influence important Norwegian industries?What change processes are underway and what are the

challenges?Can policy alleviate transformation bottlenecks and promote

change?

Traditional understanding of industrial transformation

• Industrial transformation is an evolutionary process

• Change occurs gradually, punctuated by few significant changes

• Actors close to the market most knowledgeable and should therefore direct change

• The role of policy is to create good framework conditions for innovation

Trawler Petrel. Foto Michael Cassar/Skipet.no

PGS Ramform Titan. Foto: PGS

Radical change

• System innovation that changes existing structures and functions in society

• Leads to breakthrough for novel solutions and new niches

• Requires substantial resources and active, long term policy support

Kilde:: TU

Kilde: Norsk oljemusem

Transformation as combination of established and new

• Old industries as breeding ground for new ones

• New industries draw on resources in established ones

• New industries transform existing ones

• Old industries change needs and recruits suppliers from other industries

Kilde: Equinor

Kilde: SNL

Established industries and transformation

• Established industries often seen as «conserving» and a bottleneck for change

• Established industries can play different roles in transformation processes • Depend on firm and sector-specifications

• The interplay between sectors and firms is important

KunnskapSpin-offDiversifisering Infrastruktur

InvesteringerNettverkPolitikk

Ny industri

Established industries and how they might influence development of new sectors

Marked

Kilde: Hanson 2015

Research and innovation policy and transformation

• Policy does not only act upon the system, but is part of the system

• R&I policy for transformation • Diversification of existing industries • Increased interplay across established and

emerging sectors • Knowledge building and transfer across sectors

and fields of science • Support of commercialistaion and

entrepreneurship • Destabilizing policies?

Centre for the study of innovation policy for industrial transformation, sustainability and digitalization

The overall goal is to understand how industrial transformation towards a more sustainable and smarter Norwegian economy can be fostered.

1) Preconditions, drivers and barriers for transformation in existing industries

2) The relationship between transformations of existing industries and growth of new ones

3) How R&I policy can be developed to support industrial transformation

Bio-economy

Manu-facturing

MaritimeEnergy

RS-1 Mapping transformation pressures: Global trends and specific national conditions and developments, perception of pressures across sectors and firms

RS-3 Incumbents, entrepreneurs and interactions: Organizational studies: firm strategies, behaviors and interactions

Landscape changes

RS-5 Policy mix for smart and green

industrial transformation

RS-2 Sectoral transition pathways: Regimes and niches: actors, technological and institutional conditions, different pathways and contexts

RS-4 Digitalization

Research partners Funders Stakeholders

Program for the kick-off seminar

13.00- 13.15: Centre director Taran Thune introduces INTRANSIT

13.15-13.45: An industrial perspective on transformations and sustainability transitions –current knowledge and research gaps (Associate professor Allan Dahl Andersen; TIK & Associate Professor Birte Soppe, Digent, IFI)

13.45 -14.30: Transformations in energy, maritime, aquaculture and manufacturing industries (Professor Taran Thune, TIK, Senior researchers Markus Steen & Håkon Finne, Sintef Digital)

14.30-14.45: The digital transformation (Professor Koen Frenken, Utrecht University)

Coffee break

15.00 -15.45: Group discussions addressing three questions:

15.45-16.00: Summary and outlook for INTRANSIT

A platform for knowledge generation, diffusion and action

Follow INTRANSIT • We will blog, tweet, etc.

• We will update the webpage regularly

• We will make work in progress available

• We will invite you to seminars and meetings

• We will even share data!

• If you are interested in being involved, contact us!