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8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
httpslidepdfcomreaderfulltaking-pascals-wager-by-michael-rota 124
M I C H A E L R OTA
T A K I N G
P A S C A L rsquo S
W A G E R
F A I T H E V I D E N C E and the A B U N D A N T L I F E
8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
httpslidepdfcomreaderfulltaking-pascals-wager-by-michael-rota 224
8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
httpslidepdfcomreaderfulltaking-pascals-wager-by-michael-rota 324
T A K I N G
P A S C A L rsquo S
W A G E R
F A I T H E V I D E N C E and the A B U N D A N T L I F E
MI CH AE L ROTA
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InterVarsity Press
PO Box 983089983092983088983088 Downers Grove IL 983094983088983093983089983093-983089983092983090983094
ivpresscom
emailivpresscom
copy983090983088983089983094 by Michael Rota
All rights reserved No part of this book may be reproduced in any form without written permission from
InterVarsity Press
InterVarsity Pressreg is the book-publishing division of InterVarsity Christian FellowshipUSAreg a movement of
students and faculty active on campus at hundreds of universities colleges and schools of nursing in the United
States of America and a member movement of the International Fellowship of Evangelical Students For
information about local and regional activities visit intervarsityorg
Scripture quotations unless otherwise noted are from the New Revised Standard Version of the Bible copyright
983089983097983096983097 by the Division of Christian Education of the National Council of the Churches of Christ in the USA Used by
permission All rights reservedCover design David Fassett
Interior design Beth McGill
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ISBN 983097983095983096-983088-983096983091983088983096-983093983089983091983094-983090 (print)
ISBN 983097983095983096-983088-983096983091983088983096-983097983097983097983097-983097 (digital)
Printed in the United States of America
As a member of the Green Press Initiative InterVarsity Press is committed to protecting
the environment and to the responsible use of natural resources o learn more visit greenpressinitiativeorg
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Names Rota Michael 983089983097983095983093- author
itle aking Pascalrsquos wager faith evidence and the abundant life
Michael Rota
Description Downers Grove InterVarsity Press 983090983088983089983094 | Includes
bibliographical references and index
Identifiers LCCN 983090983088983089983094983088983088983095983097983090983090 (print) | LCCN 983090983088983089983094983088983089983088983094983094983090 (ebook) | ISBN
983097983095983096983088983096983091983088983096983093983089983091983094983090 (pbk alk paper) | ISBN 983097983095983096983088983096983091983088983096983097983097983097983097983097 (eBook)
Subjects LCSH Faith and reason--Christianity | Apologetics | Pascal
Blaise 983089983094983090983091-983089983094983094983090 Pensacircees | Philosophical theology
Classification LCC B983093983088 R983094983092983093 983090983088983089983094 (print) | LCC B983093983088 (ebook) | DDC 983090983091983097--dc983090983091
LC record available at httplccnlocgov983090983088983089983094983088983088983095983097983090983090
P 983090983091 983090983090 983090983089 983090983088 983089983097 983089983096 983089983095 983089983094 983089983093 983089983092 983089983091 983089983090 983089983089 983089983088 983097 983096 983095 983094 983093 983092 983091 983090 983089
Y 983091983093 983091983092 983091983091 983091983090 983091983089 983091983088 983090983097 983090983096 983090983095 983090983094 983090983093 983090983092 983090983091 983090983090 983090983089 983090983088 983089983097 983089983096 983089983095 983089983094
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8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
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CONTENTS
Acknowledgments 983097
Introduction 10486251048625
P983137983154983156 983089 U983150983139983141983154983156983137983145983150983156983161 983137983150983140 C983151983149983149983145983156983149983141983150983156
1048625 A Curious Oer 9830901048625
983090 Pascalrsquos Wager he Basic Argument 9830911048624
983091 Objections to the Wager Moral Reservations and
the Cost o Commitment 983093983090
983092 More Objections to the Wager Other Religions
and Christianity 983094983093
P983137983154983156 983090 E983158983145983140983141983150983139983141
983093 Where Did Physical hings Come From 983096983091
983094 Why Is the Universe Just Right or Lie 983097983097
983095 A Primer on Probability 10486251048625983091
983096 God and the Multiverse 1048625983090983093
983097 he Beauty and Existential Resonance o Christianity 1048625983091983093
10486251048624 Counterevidence Divine Hiddenness and Evil 1048625983092983091
10486251048625 Historical Evidence or Christianity he Resurrection 1048625983093983092
1048625983090 Miracle or Myth 1048625983094983093
P983137983154983156 983091 S983137983161983145983150983143 Y983141983155 983156983151 G983151983140
1048625983091 Dietrich Bonhoeer 104862598309610486251048625983092 Jean Vanier 1048625983097983093
1048625983093 Immaculeacutee Ilibagiza 98309010486251048625
Conclusion aking the Wager 9830909830901048625
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8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
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Notes 983090983090983091
Author Index 983090983092983093
Subject Index 983090983092983095
Scripture Index 983090983092983097
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INTRODUCTION
I983155 983145983156 983154983137983156983145983151983150983137983148 983156983151 983138983141983148983145983141983158983141 983145983150 G983151983140983103 Is it reasonable to commit
onesel to Godmdashto live a deeply religious lie And how much certainty does
one need beore the time has come to decide I yoursquove pondered these ques-
tions beore this book is or you
I was raised Catholic although religion was not a major part o our amily
lie We prayed beore meals and went to church on most Sundays but there
was little discussion o religious matters and no regular personal prayer atleast not on my part Sometime in my early teens I began to wonder about
the truth o the religion I had been born into Does God really exist I he
does then relationship with God is the most important part o human lie
But i he doesnrsquot then the religious person is enmeshed in a massive de-
ception ldquoWe believe in one God the Father the Almighty rdquo I ound
mysel saying at Mass But did I really mean it I wasnrsquot sure and the ear
that I was being dishonest concerned meI continued to wonder about God and the rationality o Christianity
throughout high school in college and in graduate school Now as a pro-
essor o philosophy itrsquos my job to think about these topics every day My
research ocuses on the rationality o religious belie and I wrestle with ar-
guments or and against God with classes ull o students rom every point
o view almost every semester I have become convinced that it is rational
to live a deeply religious Christian lie Indeed it may be irrational not to
When contemplating the choice to commit to living a Christian lie one
might suppose that one should rerain rom making a commitment in the
absence o rock-solid evidence or the truth o Christianity Reflection on
personal relationships suggests otherwise In Te Will to Believe William
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852017852018 983137983147983145 983150983143 P983137983155983139983137 983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
James asks us to consider a man who hesitates ldquoindefinitely to ask a certain
woman to marry him because he [is] not perectly sure that she would
prove [to be] an angel afer he brought her home Would he not cut himseloff rom that particular angel-possibility as decisively as i he went and
married some one elserdquo1 In the area o romantic love it can be reasonable
to invest deeply in a relationship and eventually make a lielong com-
mitment to the beloved despite the absence o airtight evidence that the
marriage will be a happy one Because there is so much at stake it can be
reasonable to make a commitment to a personal relationship even when
absolute certainty proves elusive Applying this to the question o Godeven i the evidence or God lef some room or doubt considerations
about the possible value o a relationship with God might avor the decision
to make a religious commitment
Seventeenth-century French mathematician and theologian Blaise Pascal
gave an argument that expands on this insight Pascalrsquos wager as the ar-
gument has come to be known addresses those who arenrsquot sure whether
Christianity is true but think that it might be true Te argument can besummed up in a single sentence It is rational to seek a relationship with God
and live a deeply Christian lie because there is very much to gain and rela-
tively little to lose
As the wager is usually presented whatrsquos to gain is eternal happiness or
the wagerer An alternative and more powerul version o the argument
however ocuses not just on sel-interest but also on goods that go beyond
sel-interest I one commits to God and God does in act exist one brings
joy to God and one is better able to help others attain union with God And
i Jesus really is who he claimed to be we may even have a moral duty to
commit to living a Christian lie I Christianity is true we have a duty to
love God and have been called by God himsel who has given us everything
good that we have to live a deeply religious lie More than just sel-interest
can motivate one to take the wager
On the other hand i Christianity is alse the committed Christian has
still lived a meaningul lie has pursued moral excellence and has enjoyed
the many empirically well-attested benefits o belonging to a religious com-
munity Much to gain relatively little to lose
In part one o this book (chapters one through our) Irsquoll present an updated
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Introduction 852017852019
version o Pascalrsquos wager strengthened by cutting-edge research rom psy-
chologists sociologists and philosophers Afer introducing and laying out
the basic argument in chapters one and two I turn to objections to the wagerin chapters three and our Tese include the objections that committing to
God on the basis o pragmatic considerations is immoral that the cost o
religious commitment is too high that the existence o religions other than
Christianity nullifies the argument and that Christian doctrine itsel casts
doubt on the wager When addressing this last issue I discuss grace ree will
and predestination
In part two (chapters five through twelve) Irsquoll take a careul look at argu-ments or the existence o God and the truth o Christianity showing howmdash
once we no longer demand certaintymdashthe available evidence is sufficient to
make serious Christian commitment entirely reasonable ogether parts
one and two present the bookrsquos main argument which can be summarized
as ollows
I Christianity has at least a 1048629983088 percent chance o being true then it is rational
to commit to living a Christian lie (the conclusion o part one)
Christianity does have at least a 1048629983088 percent chance o being true (the con-
clusion o part two)
Tus it is rational to commit to living a Christian lie
Te argument o part two proceeds in two stages First I present evidence
or theism (the view that there is a God) second I present evidence or the
more specific view o Christian theism I begin by asking the question o whyphysical reality exists at all Chapter five argues that there is at least one nec-
essarily existing being which explains the existence o contingent beings
(Contingent beings are things that reality didnrsquot have to include like all the
physical objects we see around us) Chapters six through eight then provide
an argument that the cause o physical reality is an intelligent being In the
last several decades mainstream physicists and astronomers have come to
realize that the lie-permitting character o our universe is balanced on a
kniersquos edge i several eatures had been ever-so-slightly different rom what
they in act are then stable sel-reproducing lie would not have been able
to arise Chapter six introduces some o the scientific evidence or this con-
clusion and gives a preliminary statement o what has come to be known as
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852017852020 983137983147983145 983150983143 P983137983155983139983137 983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
the fine-tuning argument Tis argument has been summarized or non-
specialists in several places but not always with enough rigor and back-
ground or the strength o the case to be ully displayed In chapter seven Iexplain the parts o probability theory required to appreciate the power o
the evidence that our universe is the product o an intelligence Chapter eight
contains an original reply to the strongest alternative to design the multi-
verse hypothesis (Tis is the hypothesis that our universe is just one o a vast
number o universes most o which are not lie permitting) aken together
chapters five through eight provide evidence or God drawing on the best
recent research but written so as to be accessible to the general readerIn chapter nine I turn to specifically Christian doctrines suggesting that
the beauty and existential resonance o Christianity are clues to its truth
Chapter ten concerns the two most powerul arguments against theism the
argument rom divine hiddenness and the argument rom evil (As argu-
ments against all orms o theism they are arguments against Christian
theism as well) Tese topics deserve not a single chapter but whole books
o their own And they have them So in chapter ten I summarize what I taketo be the strongest replies to the arguments rom hiddenness and evil o-
cusing on the recent work o Peter van Inwagen and Eleonore Stump Finally
in chapters eleven and twelve I turn to arguments or the resurrection o
Jesus Tis is just one o many Christian doctrines o course but logically
speaking it holds a special place I one has reason to believe that Jesus rose
rom the dead then one has reason to believe that Jesusrsquo teachings have
the divine stamp o approval and are thereore true So an argument or the
resurrection is an argument or the truth o Christianity (or at least the
larger part o one) In this pair o chapters I draw on the most recent work
on the issue by historians theologians and philosophers While I think that
the evidence o part two is by itsel sufficient to justiy belie in Christianity
agreement on this point is not required or the main argument o the book
to succeed For given the argument o part one all that is required or a
demonstration o the rationality o Christian commitment is that the evi-
dence render Christianity at least as likely as not
Itrsquos sometimes said that the longest distance in the world is the distance
rom the head to the heart And so in part three Irsquoll try to illustrate how a
lie o Christian commitment is not just reasonable but worth desiring as
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Introduction 852017852021
wellmdashsatisying both the head and the heart o do this Irsquoll tell the stories
o three exemplary individuals who took Jesus up on his invitation to ollow
him Te lives o these individuals were enriched and in turn enrichedcountless others in ways all o us would want to be true or our own lives
Dietrich Bonhoeffer Jean Vanier and Immaculeacutee Ilibagiza show how heroic
noble and beautiul a Christian lie can be Jesus said ldquoI came that they may
have lie and have it abundantlyrdquo (Jn 983089983088983089983088) Te abundance that so ofen
characterizes a devout Christian lie is not a matter o external goods or
material wealth but is internal and spiritual flowing rom a close personal
relationship with God Lie ocused on God offers comort inspiration anda peace that the vicissitudes o ortune need never take away
Te landscape o academic philosophy has changed significantly in the
last orty or fify years In the 983089983088s and rsquo1048631983088s it was taken or granted in many
philosophical circles that traditional Christian belie is unjustified and ir-
rational Tanks to the work o philosophers such as Alvin Plantinga
Eleonore Stump Peter van Inwagen and Richard Swinburne things have
changed
2
Recent decades have been a time o enormous productivity orphilosophers deending the rationality o Christian aith answering objec-
tions to Christian doctrines improving traditional arguments or the exis-
tence o God and ormulating new ones In the pages that ollow Irsquoll explore
some o the most important results o this body o work Irsquove written this
book though without presupposing that the reader has had ormal training
in philosophy or theology My hope is that it will be useul or anyone who
is interested in the evidence or God or the evidence or Christianity more
particularly I also hope that college students in philosophy and theology
courses will find the material worthwhile
Since this book is about evidence and reasons or religious belie itrsquos
worth addressing at the outset the question o why people believe what they
do on religious issues Isnrsquot religion a matter o the heart Does anyone really
believe on the basis o logic or argument Many committed Christians be-
lieve in God not primarily because o argument but because o experiencemdash
they have an intuitive sense o Godrsquos presence Perhaps not all the time but
certainly much o the time it just seems that God is there aware o what we
do and think Tis is how it is in my own case But what i you donrsquot happen
to have such an experience yoursel Or what i you have it occasionally but
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8520171048630 983137983147983145 983150983143 P983137983155983139983137 983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
it is fleeting and open to serious doubt In those cases it makes good sense
to spend some time examining arguments and publicly available evidence
relating to questions about God and religion According to Christianityaith is a gif But or the person who does not have aith a careul look at
arguments or (and against) Christianity is a natural and reasonable step to
take Examination o evidence can also be worthwhile or the person who
does have aith but has doubts too In what ollows I give an extended
presentation o evidence or the truth o Christianity and a rigorous ar-
gument or the reasonableness o Christian commitment
While this book will ocus on the rational case or Christianity itrsquos im-portant to acknowledge that there are many actors involved in a decision
to commit to a Christian way o lie actors that go beyond impersonal
philosophical reasoning Onersquos upbringing onersquos experiences with indi-
vidual Christians the attitudes and views o onersquos closest riends and amily
onersquos emotional lie onersquos deep-seated hopes and ears and onersquos own par-
ticular way o viewing the worldmdashall o these come into play when one
encounters the message o Jesus I believe that the philosophical argumen-tation contained in this book will be helpul to many people but philo-
sophical argumentation is only one part o a larger picture When it comes
to religion logic may or may not be where one starts but itrsquos certainly not
where one should end Living a Christian lie is an act o the whole personmdash
mind and heart body and soul Still precisely because a Christian lie in-
volves the whole person there is a place or the mind and thus or reason
evidence and logic
Finally a ew words are called or regarding a concept that will play a
key role in what ollows probability Everyone has many belies but some
o those belies are held more confidently than others For example I be-
lieve that Irsquoll still be alive twenty-our hours rom now Irsquom not absolutely
certain I will be but nonetheless I do believe it I also believe Irsquoll be alive
twenty-our days rom now But Irsquom less confident in this belie than in my
belie about being alive twenty-our hours rom now How about twenty-
our years rom now In my case I wouldnrsquot say that I believe Irsquoll be alive
twenty-our years rom now I also donrsquot believe I wonrsquot be alive twenty-
our years rom nowmdashtherersquos just not enough inormation to orm a belie
one way or the other
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Introduction 852017852023
Philosophers sometimes use the language o ldquolevels o confidencerdquo when
discussing belies and probability Levels o confidence come in a scale rom
zero to one (or 983088 percent to 983089983088983088 percent) o be absolutely certain o some-thing (eg 983089 + 983089 = 1048626) is to assign it a level o confidence o 983089 o be absolutely
certain a claim is alse (eg 983089 + 983089 = 9830891048631) is to assign it a level o confidence o
983088 In such a situation one could say that the probability o the claim is 983088
percent Terersquos just no chance that yoursquove gotten conused and ldquo983089 + 983089 = 9830891048631rdquo
is really true What about a proposition like ldquothis normal penny will come
up heads when I flip itrdquo Here itrsquos reasonable to assign equal levels o confi-
dence both to this claim and to the claim that the penny will come up tailsSo wersquod assign both claims a level o confidence o 9830881048629 and we could say that
the chance the coin will be heads is 1048629983088 percent How confident am I that this
six-sided die will show either a 983089 or a 1048626 when I roll it 104862710486271048627 percent You get
the idea
Te word probability will come up ofen in this book Irsquoll sometimes also
talk about how likely something is or what the chance is that such-and-such
is true Unless otherwise noted these are all just different ways to talk aboutthe same thing what philosophers call epistemic probability Roughly the
epistemic probability o a proposition (that is a statement or a claim) is the
level o confidence itrsquos reasonable to assign to that proposition3
Probability evidence moral heroism commitment all o these actors
will enter into our discussion o the reasonableness o Christian theism But
enough with introductory matters On to deeper waters
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- Part One -
UNCERTAINTY
and
COMMITMENT
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- 983089 -
A CURIOUS OFFER
I983149983137983143983145983150983141 983156983144983137983156 983151983150983141 983140983137983161 you receive a phone call rom a abulously
wealthy individualmdashan eccentric billionaire known or spending his money
in odd and trivial ways He makes you a curious offer You are to determine
the religion you think most likely to be true and then practice that religion
devoutly attend religious services read the sacred scriptures o that religion
pray as that religion prescribes and live out the religionrsquos moral teachings
And he asks you to do this or the rest o your lie His part o the bargainwill be to place 983076983089983088 billion in an escrow account to be deliverable on your
death to whatever persons or causes you have named You can leave the
money to your amily or to a charitable organization or to scientific re-
search or any combination o the above whatever you think best I you
choose not to enter into the bargain he adds he will be using the money to
hire tens o thousands o artists to paint millions and millions o mediocre
oil paintings o his pet dog ScoutO course i this actually happened to you yoursquod be a mite skeptical But
imagine that afer due diligence you became convinced that this was no joke
And the billionaire clarified that you did not have to lie or otherwise mis-
represent yoursel in order to ulfill your side o the bargain I or example
you chose Christianity as the religion you thought most likely to be true you
would not have to recite the creed during the liturgy i you did not believe
it And your prayers could be conditional as in ldquoI yoursquore there God thank
you or this and please help me with thatrdquo An odd offer to be sure but also
in all probability the only chance yoursquoll ever have to direct 983076983089983088 billion o
wealth to persons or causes you care about So what would you do Would
you accept the offer
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Perhaps the act that the payoff is mere monetary gain gives you pause
Good or you to trade onersquos religious devotion or money would be base But
remember that you can name whatever beneficiary yoursquod like includingcharitable organizations that work with the poorest o the poor You can
trade your religious devotion or ood or the starving or education or
impoverished children in the developing world On board yet Say that the
billionaire adds that he doesnrsquot want to make this offer i you already happen
to be certain or almost certain that God does not exist His offer is only or
people who can say o some particular religion that there is at least a decent
chance that it is trueNow consider an alternative scenario Suppose that rom the get-go the
billionaire had offered you a different bargain the payoff is not a guaranteed
983076983089983088 billion but a 1048629983088 percent shot at 983076983089983088983088 billion Tat is suppose the bil-
lionairersquos side o the bargain is to put 983076983089983088983088 billion in an escrow account Ten
afer your death a air coin will be flipped I it comes up heads the entire
983076983089983088983088 billion will be given to your named beneficiary or beneficiaries I tails
then wersquoll have a lot o pictures o Scout Would you accept this offerHold on to that thought
Te overarching question o this book is the question o whether there is
good reason to make a serious commitment to living a Christian lie In part
two wersquoll take a tour o the evidence or Christianity But beore that the
question to ask first is ldquoHow much evidence would be required to make a
Christian commitment reasonablerdquo As Irsquoll try to show here in part one a
serious Christian commitment is recommended by reason even i there is
as little as a 1048629983088 percent chance that Christianity is true In other words i
you are willing to grant that Christianity is at least as likely as not then it is
rational or you to commit to living a devout Christian lie Indeed i yoursquore
in ordinary circumstances it is irrational or you not to1
P983137983155983139983137983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
Te argument Irsquoll give or this conclusion has its roots in the reflections o
seventeenth-century polymath Blaise Pascal Pascal made important contri-
butions in mathematics probability theory and physics His work on fluid
mechanics was instrumental in the later invention o the hydraulic press
and he himsel designed and built one o the first mechanical calculating
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A Curious Of fer 852018852019
machines an early precursor to the digital computer (Interestingly the
principles used in the machine are still employed in many automobile
odometers) Pascal was an inventor an intellectual and a scientist He wasalso a deeply religious man At the age o thirty-one he had a powerul mys-
tical experience o God He described the experience in a note and stitched
the note into his coat keeping it close to him He evidently transerred the
paper note (together with a cleaner copy he put down on parchment) rom
coat to coat or the rest o his liemdasha servant ound them afer his death
Pascal suffered rom ill health dying at only thirty-nine In his final years
he was drafing a work o apologetics Te disorganized ragments that werehis notes or the project were published posthumously and quickly became
a classic Pascalrsquos Pensees (French or ldquothoughtsrdquo)2 In one o those ragments
Pascal gives an argument not or the theoretical conclusion that God exists
but or the practical conclusion that one should live a devout Christian lie
Te argument is addressed to those who arenrsquot sure whether Christianity is
true or alse and has come to be known as Pascalrsquos wager o be precise the
ragment contains the seeds o our different arguments in support o reli-gious commitment3 Te strongest version comes down to this It is rational
to seek a relationship with God and live a deeply Christian lie because there
is very much to gain and relatively little to lose In chapter two Irsquoll present a
strengthened and expanded version o this argument I Christianity is
indeed true then by committing to live a Christian lie one brings great joy
to God and all others in heaven raises the chance that one will be with God
orever raises the chance that one will help others attain union with God
expresses gratitude to God and becomes more aware o Godrsquos love and more
receptive to his help in the course o onersquos earthly lie On the other hand i
Christianity is alse the person who commits his or her lie to Jesusrsquo teachings
has still lived a worthwhile lie striving or moral excellence and experi-
encing the benefits o religious community (benefits that contemporary
sociological research reveals to be significant)
Pascalrsquos pragmatic argument in support o religious commitment has had
its share o critics Tus the amous English philosopher G E Moore ldquo[Con-
cerning Pascalrsquos claim that] in our state o doubt we should decide or that
belie which promises the greater reward I have nothing to say o it except
that it seems to me absolutely wickedrdquo4 Voltaire thought the wager was
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ldquosomewhat indecent and childish Te idea o gaming o losing or winning
is quite unsuitable to the dignity o the subjectrdquo5 In much the same vein an
earlier French critic had complained ldquoI lose patience listening to youtreating the highest o all matters and resting the most important truth in
the world the source o all truths on an idea so base and puerile on a com-
parison with a game o heads and tails more productive o mirth than per-
suasionrdquo6 More recently Christopher Hitchens sees Pascalrsquos theology as ldquonot
ar short o sordidrdquo7 remarking that ldquoPascal reminds me o the hypocrites
and rauds who abound in almudic Jewish rationalization Donrsquot do any
work on the Sabbath yoursel but pay someone else to do it You obeyed theletter o the law whorsquos countingrdquo8
Are these objections air Mathematician James Franklin suggests that
Pascalrsquos actual view is ofen replaced with an unflattering caricature o the
wager Franklin contrasts these two views
What Pascal said You have to choose whether to accept religion Tink o it
as a coin toss where you donrsquot know the outcome In this case i you losemdash
therersquos no Godmdashyou have not lost much But i you win there is an infinitepayoff So you should go to Mass and pray or aith [Franklinrsquos paraphrase]
Pascal caricatured Being base and greedy we want lots o goodies in this
lie and i possible the next So we are prepared to give up some pleasures
now on the off chance o a lot more later i our eye to the main chance makes
it look worth our while Since the loot on offer is infinite even a small chance
o raking it in makes it worth a try to grovel to any deity that might do what
we want9
Franklin makes a good point Pascalrsquos argument is ofen interpreted in
the worst possible light Still there are legitimate objections to consider
even when Pascalrsquos reasoning is interpreted airly It may be that it is im-
moral to allow any considerations about cost and benefit to affect what we
believe Perhaps a respect or truth requires that our belies be determined
by evidence and evidence alone Second we must consider whether the
costs o committing to God are simply too high And perhaps the most
common criticism is that Pascal illicitly assumed there were only two op-
tions to consider atheism and (Catholic) Christianity Te many gods ob-
jection as itrsquos ofen called contends that the multitude o possibly true reli-
gions makes trouble or Pascal
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A Curious Of fer 852018852021
In chapters three and our Irsquoll elaborate on these and additional objec-
tions and respond to them But first we need to lay the basic argument
out on the table in more detail and with greater precision In order togive the strongest argument possible Irsquoll set aside the analysis o Pascalrsquos
text and instead develop a Pascalian argument in my own way10 Just or
the sake o having a handy title Irsquoll reer to my argument as ldquothe wagerrdquo
or even ldquoPascalrsquos wagerrdquo but this title should be taken merely as a re-
erence to its original inspiration not as a claim that I am providing a
verbatim reproduction o Pascalrsquos thought Indeed the wager Irsquoll present
takes advantage o cutting-edge work in philosophy and psychology andrecent sociological data unavailable to Pascal and it is thereore able to
greatly improve on his rather sketchy note Since itrsquos impossible to explain
the wager clearly without using some concepts rom decision theory
thatrsquos where wersquoll begin
D983141983139983145983155983145983151983150 T983144983141983151983154983161
Decision theory is about how to make good decisions in circumstances orisk or uncertainty Tree concepts are especially important states strat-
egies and outcomes A state is a possible way things might be (it will rain
today or it wonrsquot rain today) a strategy is a possible action the decider
might take (bring my umbrella or leave it at home) An outcome is a situ-
ation that results when a given strategy is taken and a certain state is actual
(eg the situation o being stuck in the rain without an umbrella) In order
to assess the suitability o the various available strategies the decision
maker attempts to orm a judgment about how valuable the various out-
comes are
For example suppose I offer you a bet I ask a trusted third party to flip
a air coin but not to tell us whether it lands heads or tails Ten I ask you
to decide either to play (that is participate in the bet) or pass I you choose
to play it will cost you one dollar but i you play and the coin has come up
heads you will get your dollar back and I will pay you two more dollars so
you will be up two dollars I you choose to play and the coin comes up tails
however I will keep your dollar so you will be down one dollar I on the
other hand you choose to pass no money will change hands either way
Would you take my bet
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8520181048630 983137983147983145 983150983143 P983137983155983139983137 983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
I bet you would Decision theory allows us to say precisely why the bet is
avorable or you Tere are two possible states or you to consider it could
be that the coin has come up heads and it could be that it has come up tailsAt the time you make your decision you donrsquot know which state is the actual
way things are but you do know that itrsquos one or the other Next there are
two possible strategies you can adopt play or pass Corresponding to the
our possible combinations o these states and strategies there are our pos-
sible situations that may resultmdashthese are the outcomes (983089) you play the
game and the coin is heads and so you win two dollars (1048626) you play the
game and the coin is tails so you lose one dollar (1048627) you pass and the coinis heads so you neither gain nor lose and (1048628) you pass and the coin is tails
so you neither gain nor lose In considering the question o what to do the
decision maker is invited to evaluate the outcomes Tat is the decision
maker attempts to estimate how valuable the various outcomes are In this
case the monetary value o outcome 983089 or you is two dollars or outcome 1048626
it is minus one dollar and or outcomes 1048627 and 1048628 zero In the case o most
actual decisions values other than money are at stake But starting with an
example using money is a good way to get an initial grasp o decision theory
Decision theorists commonly use a ldquodecision matrixrdquo to sum up inor-
mation relevant to a decision In our case we need a two-by-two matrix Te
columns correspond to the two possible states o the world and the rows
correspond to the two strategies you might take In the cells we write down
the valuations o the resulting outcomes
Heads Tails
PlayOutcome 1
$2Outcome 2
$-1
PassOutcome 3
$0Outcome 4
$0
Figure 983089983089
Should you play or pass I you only had one dollar to your name and
needed it to buy ood lest you starve then it might not be wise to play But
i yoursquore in ordinary circumstances and the loss o a dollar would be no great
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A Curious Of fer 852018852023
loss then itrsquos rational to play Intuitively this is because yoursquove got an equal
chance o gaining and losing and i you gain you gain twice what you would
lose i you lost More precisely itrsquos because the expected value o playing ishigher than the expected value o passing Te expected value o a strategy
or a given game or bet is the average value per game that would accrue to
you i you played the game an infinite number o times and adopted that
strategy every time Here the expected value o the strategy ldquoplayrdquo can be
calculated by multiplying the probability o each state by the value o its
corresponding outcome and adding up the products So the expected value
o ldquoplayrdquo is equal to
(frac12) times (1048626) + (frac12) times (minus983089) = 1048629983088
I you were offered this bet a large number o times and you chose ldquoplayrdquo
every time yoursquod win an average o about fify cents per game Te expected
value o passing by contrast is
(frac12) times (983088) + (frac12) times (983088) = 983088
One reason playing is a good bet here is that the expected value o playing
(fify cents) is more than the expected value o passing (zero cents) Now as
it turns out itrsquos not always rational to take the strategy that maximizes onersquos
expected value11 But maximizing expected value is ofen a good way to
make decisions that involve risk
For the sake o clarity Irsquove illustrated the concepts o a state a strategy an
outcome and a decision matrix by giving an example with precise monetary
values or outcomes and with definite probabilities assigned to the possiblestates in question In real lie we usually donrsquot have precise probabilities to
assign to the states and much (perhaps most) o what we care about canrsquot
be valued in monetary terms Even in such cases however there are prin-
ciples that can guide our decision making
One such principle is at play when we say things like ldquoIrsquoll do X because it
canrsquot hurt and it might helprdquo or ldquoYou should do Y because therersquos nothing to
lose and maybe a lot to gainrdquo Suppose yoursquove borrowed your riendrsquos bicycleand have cycled to a store on the edge o town You put the lock around the
bike and a parking sign and as yoursquore lifing the key to lock up the bike it
occurs to you that this part o town is very sae and therersquos hardly any chance
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the bike will be stolen Besides when yoursquore inside the bike will be in your
view through the store window As you finish thinking this yoursquove also just
put the key into the lock So should you lock up the bike You donrsquot have anyprecise knowledge about the probability o thef in the circumstances and
while you could estimate the value o the bike therersquos no obvious way to
calculate the disvalue your riend would experience i your negligence got his
bike stolen Despite your lack o knowledge on those points though itrsquos clear
enough what you should do all you have to do to lock the bike is turn your
wrist A decision theorist could map out your situation like this
A thief will happen by A thief wont happen by
Lock Nothing bad happens Nothing bad happens
Dontlock
Bike stolen (probably) Nothing bad happens
Figure 983089 983090
I a motivated capable thie is in act coming along the strategy o locking
will result in a ar better outcome while i such a thie wonrsquot happen by locking
is no worse than unlocking (by the time o your decision itrsquos just so easy to
lock that therersquos no cost to locking) In the language o game theory we say
that the strategy o locking ldquoweakly dominatesrdquo the strategy o not locking
One strategy weakly dominates another i (and only i) there is at least one
possible state o the world on which the first strategy delivers a better outcome
than the second and there are no possible states o the world on which the
first strategy delivers a worse outcome than second In other words depending
on how things turn out adopting a weakly dominant strategy will either end
up yielding a better result than adopting the other strategy would have or it
will end up yielding a result that is just as good as what yoursquod have gotten with
the other strategy In a situation o uncertainty when we donrsquot know which o
several possible states o the world is the true one it is always better to adopt
a weakly dominant strategy instead o the strategy it dominates
In case yoursquore wondering one strategy strongly dominates another
strategy i and only i it delivers a better outcome on every possible state o
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A Curious Of fer 8520181048633
the world O course strongly dominant strategies are even more preerable
than weakly dominant strategies when you can get them
Decision theorists have other principles to help guide us in uncertaintyBut itrsquos worth noting that in some cases we donrsquot need a general principle
Sometimes we can just see what the smart thing to do is especially i wersquove
laid out the inormation in a decision matrix For example suppose again
that a trusted third party flips a coin or us but doesnrsquot say whether it lands
heads or tails Now imagine that I credibly make you this offer i you choose
to play and itrsquos heads then Irsquoll give you a million dollars while yoursquoll owe
me one dollar i itrsquos tails and yoursquove chosen to play I you choose to pass nomoney is exchanged either way We could represent this with the matrix
Heads Tails
PlayOutcome 1
$1000000Outcome 2
$-1
PassOutcome 3
$0Outcome 4
$0
Figure 983089 983091
Here we canrsquot say that playing weakly dominates passing because i the
coin is tails you do slightly better by passing But itrsquos one dollar wersquore talking
about Strictly speaking playing is not a weakly dominant strategy here but
itrsquos close enough Te payoff is so much greater i the coin is heads and the
loss is so little i itrsquos tails that itrsquos clearly rational to play Perhaps we couldstate a precise universally valid principle that would apply in this case and
tell us what to do but we donrsquot really need one we can just see what the
smart move is Tis insight will prove helpul later on
With these preliminaries behind us we can now turn to the wager A
consideration o this argument will allow us to see that Christian com-
mitment is recommended by reason so long as the available evidence makes
it at least as likely as not that the central claims o Christianity are true
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T A K I N G
P A S C A L rsquo S
W A G E R
F A I T H E V I D E N C E and the A B U N D A N T L I F E
MI CH AE L ROTA
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InterVarsity Press
PO Box 983089983092983088983088 Downers Grove IL 983094983088983093983089983093-983089983092983090983094
ivpresscom
emailivpresscom
copy983090983088983089983094 by Michael Rota
All rights reserved No part of this book may be reproduced in any form without written permission from
InterVarsity Press
InterVarsity Pressreg is the book-publishing division of InterVarsity Christian FellowshipUSAreg a movement of
students and faculty active on campus at hundreds of universities colleges and schools of nursing in the United
States of America and a member movement of the International Fellowship of Evangelical Students For
information about local and regional activities visit intervarsityorg
Scripture quotations unless otherwise noted are from the New Revised Standard Version of the Bible copyright
983089983097983096983097 by the Division of Christian Education of the National Council of the Churches of Christ in the USA Used by
permission All rights reservedCover design David Fassett
Interior design Beth McGill
Images ladder jangeltuniStockphoto
high diver 983089983097983092983088s MAN POISED MIDAIR ARMS OU JUMPING FROM DIVING BOARD INO POOL
(Photo by H Armstrong RobertsClassicStockGetty Images)
ISBN 983097983095983096-983088-983096983091983088983096-983093983089983091983094-983090 (print)
ISBN 983097983095983096-983088-983096983091983088983096-983097983097983097983097-983097 (digital)
Printed in the United States of America
As a member of the Green Press Initiative InterVarsity Press is committed to protecting
the environment and to the responsible use of natural resources o learn more visit greenpressinitiativeorg
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Names Rota Michael 983089983097983095983093- author
itle aking Pascalrsquos wager faith evidence and the abundant life
Michael Rota
Description Downers Grove InterVarsity Press 983090983088983089983094 | Includes
bibliographical references and index
Identifiers LCCN 983090983088983089983094983088983088983095983097983090983090 (print) | LCCN 983090983088983089983094983088983089983088983094983094983090 (ebook) | ISBN
983097983095983096983088983096983091983088983096983093983089983091983094983090 (pbk alk paper) | ISBN 983097983095983096983088983096983091983088983096983097983097983097983097983097 (eBook)
Subjects LCSH Faith and reason--Christianity | Apologetics | Pascal
Blaise 983089983094983090983091-983089983094983094983090 Pensacircees | Philosophical theology
Classification LCC B983093983088 R983094983092983093 983090983088983089983094 (print) | LCC B983093983088 (ebook) | DDC 983090983091983097--dc983090983091
LC record available at httplccnlocgov983090983088983089983094983088983088983095983097983090983090
P 983090983091 983090983090 983090983089 983090983088 983089983097 983089983096 983089983095 983089983094 983089983093 983089983092 983089983091 983089983090 983089983089 983089983088 983097 983096 983095 983094 983093 983092 983091 983090 983089
Y 983091983093 983091983092 983091983091 983091983090 983091983089 983091983088 983090983097 983090983096 983090983095 983090983094 983090983093 983090983092 983090983091 983090983090 983090983089 983090983088 983089983097 983089983096 983089983095 983089983094
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CONTENTS
Acknowledgments 983097
Introduction 10486251048625
P983137983154983156 983089 U983150983139983141983154983156983137983145983150983156983161 983137983150983140 C983151983149983149983145983156983149983141983150983156
1048625 A Curious Oer 9830901048625
983090 Pascalrsquos Wager he Basic Argument 9830911048624
983091 Objections to the Wager Moral Reservations and
the Cost o Commitment 983093983090
983092 More Objections to the Wager Other Religions
and Christianity 983094983093
P983137983154983156 983090 E983158983145983140983141983150983139983141
983093 Where Did Physical hings Come From 983096983091
983094 Why Is the Universe Just Right or Lie 983097983097
983095 A Primer on Probability 10486251048625983091
983096 God and the Multiverse 1048625983090983093
983097 he Beauty and Existential Resonance o Christianity 1048625983091983093
10486251048624 Counterevidence Divine Hiddenness and Evil 1048625983092983091
10486251048625 Historical Evidence or Christianity he Resurrection 1048625983093983092
1048625983090 Miracle or Myth 1048625983094983093
P983137983154983156 983091 S983137983161983145983150983143 Y983141983155 983156983151 G983151983140
1048625983091 Dietrich Bonhoeer 104862598309610486251048625983092 Jean Vanier 1048625983097983093
1048625983093 Immaculeacutee Ilibagiza 98309010486251048625
Conclusion aking the Wager 9830909830901048625
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Notes 983090983090983091
Author Index 983090983092983093
Subject Index 983090983092983095
Scripture Index 983090983092983097
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INTRODUCTION
I983155 983145983156 983154983137983156983145983151983150983137983148 983156983151 983138983141983148983145983141983158983141 983145983150 G983151983140983103 Is it reasonable to commit
onesel to Godmdashto live a deeply religious lie And how much certainty does
one need beore the time has come to decide I yoursquove pondered these ques-
tions beore this book is or you
I was raised Catholic although religion was not a major part o our amily
lie We prayed beore meals and went to church on most Sundays but there
was little discussion o religious matters and no regular personal prayer atleast not on my part Sometime in my early teens I began to wonder about
the truth o the religion I had been born into Does God really exist I he
does then relationship with God is the most important part o human lie
But i he doesnrsquot then the religious person is enmeshed in a massive de-
ception ldquoWe believe in one God the Father the Almighty rdquo I ound
mysel saying at Mass But did I really mean it I wasnrsquot sure and the ear
that I was being dishonest concerned meI continued to wonder about God and the rationality o Christianity
throughout high school in college and in graduate school Now as a pro-
essor o philosophy itrsquos my job to think about these topics every day My
research ocuses on the rationality o religious belie and I wrestle with ar-
guments or and against God with classes ull o students rom every point
o view almost every semester I have become convinced that it is rational
to live a deeply religious Christian lie Indeed it may be irrational not to
When contemplating the choice to commit to living a Christian lie one
might suppose that one should rerain rom making a commitment in the
absence o rock-solid evidence or the truth o Christianity Reflection on
personal relationships suggests otherwise In Te Will to Believe William
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852017852018 983137983147983145 983150983143 P983137983155983139983137 983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
James asks us to consider a man who hesitates ldquoindefinitely to ask a certain
woman to marry him because he [is] not perectly sure that she would
prove [to be] an angel afer he brought her home Would he not cut himseloff rom that particular angel-possibility as decisively as i he went and
married some one elserdquo1 In the area o romantic love it can be reasonable
to invest deeply in a relationship and eventually make a lielong com-
mitment to the beloved despite the absence o airtight evidence that the
marriage will be a happy one Because there is so much at stake it can be
reasonable to make a commitment to a personal relationship even when
absolute certainty proves elusive Applying this to the question o Godeven i the evidence or God lef some room or doubt considerations
about the possible value o a relationship with God might avor the decision
to make a religious commitment
Seventeenth-century French mathematician and theologian Blaise Pascal
gave an argument that expands on this insight Pascalrsquos wager as the ar-
gument has come to be known addresses those who arenrsquot sure whether
Christianity is true but think that it might be true Te argument can besummed up in a single sentence It is rational to seek a relationship with God
and live a deeply Christian lie because there is very much to gain and rela-
tively little to lose
As the wager is usually presented whatrsquos to gain is eternal happiness or
the wagerer An alternative and more powerul version o the argument
however ocuses not just on sel-interest but also on goods that go beyond
sel-interest I one commits to God and God does in act exist one brings
joy to God and one is better able to help others attain union with God And
i Jesus really is who he claimed to be we may even have a moral duty to
commit to living a Christian lie I Christianity is true we have a duty to
love God and have been called by God himsel who has given us everything
good that we have to live a deeply religious lie More than just sel-interest
can motivate one to take the wager
On the other hand i Christianity is alse the committed Christian has
still lived a meaningul lie has pursued moral excellence and has enjoyed
the many empirically well-attested benefits o belonging to a religious com-
munity Much to gain relatively little to lose
In part one o this book (chapters one through our) Irsquoll present an updated
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Introduction 852017852019
version o Pascalrsquos wager strengthened by cutting-edge research rom psy-
chologists sociologists and philosophers Afer introducing and laying out
the basic argument in chapters one and two I turn to objections to the wagerin chapters three and our Tese include the objections that committing to
God on the basis o pragmatic considerations is immoral that the cost o
religious commitment is too high that the existence o religions other than
Christianity nullifies the argument and that Christian doctrine itsel casts
doubt on the wager When addressing this last issue I discuss grace ree will
and predestination
In part two (chapters five through twelve) Irsquoll take a careul look at argu-ments or the existence o God and the truth o Christianity showing howmdash
once we no longer demand certaintymdashthe available evidence is sufficient to
make serious Christian commitment entirely reasonable ogether parts
one and two present the bookrsquos main argument which can be summarized
as ollows
I Christianity has at least a 1048629983088 percent chance o being true then it is rational
to commit to living a Christian lie (the conclusion o part one)
Christianity does have at least a 1048629983088 percent chance o being true (the con-
clusion o part two)
Tus it is rational to commit to living a Christian lie
Te argument o part two proceeds in two stages First I present evidence
or theism (the view that there is a God) second I present evidence or the
more specific view o Christian theism I begin by asking the question o whyphysical reality exists at all Chapter five argues that there is at least one nec-
essarily existing being which explains the existence o contingent beings
(Contingent beings are things that reality didnrsquot have to include like all the
physical objects we see around us) Chapters six through eight then provide
an argument that the cause o physical reality is an intelligent being In the
last several decades mainstream physicists and astronomers have come to
realize that the lie-permitting character o our universe is balanced on a
kniersquos edge i several eatures had been ever-so-slightly different rom what
they in act are then stable sel-reproducing lie would not have been able
to arise Chapter six introduces some o the scientific evidence or this con-
clusion and gives a preliminary statement o what has come to be known as
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852017852020 983137983147983145 983150983143 P983137983155983139983137 983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
the fine-tuning argument Tis argument has been summarized or non-
specialists in several places but not always with enough rigor and back-
ground or the strength o the case to be ully displayed In chapter seven Iexplain the parts o probability theory required to appreciate the power o
the evidence that our universe is the product o an intelligence Chapter eight
contains an original reply to the strongest alternative to design the multi-
verse hypothesis (Tis is the hypothesis that our universe is just one o a vast
number o universes most o which are not lie permitting) aken together
chapters five through eight provide evidence or God drawing on the best
recent research but written so as to be accessible to the general readerIn chapter nine I turn to specifically Christian doctrines suggesting that
the beauty and existential resonance o Christianity are clues to its truth
Chapter ten concerns the two most powerul arguments against theism the
argument rom divine hiddenness and the argument rom evil (As argu-
ments against all orms o theism they are arguments against Christian
theism as well) Tese topics deserve not a single chapter but whole books
o their own And they have them So in chapter ten I summarize what I taketo be the strongest replies to the arguments rom hiddenness and evil o-
cusing on the recent work o Peter van Inwagen and Eleonore Stump Finally
in chapters eleven and twelve I turn to arguments or the resurrection o
Jesus Tis is just one o many Christian doctrines o course but logically
speaking it holds a special place I one has reason to believe that Jesus rose
rom the dead then one has reason to believe that Jesusrsquo teachings have
the divine stamp o approval and are thereore true So an argument or the
resurrection is an argument or the truth o Christianity (or at least the
larger part o one) In this pair o chapters I draw on the most recent work
on the issue by historians theologians and philosophers While I think that
the evidence o part two is by itsel sufficient to justiy belie in Christianity
agreement on this point is not required or the main argument o the book
to succeed For given the argument o part one all that is required or a
demonstration o the rationality o Christian commitment is that the evi-
dence render Christianity at least as likely as not
Itrsquos sometimes said that the longest distance in the world is the distance
rom the head to the heart And so in part three Irsquoll try to illustrate how a
lie o Christian commitment is not just reasonable but worth desiring as
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Introduction 852017852021
wellmdashsatisying both the head and the heart o do this Irsquoll tell the stories
o three exemplary individuals who took Jesus up on his invitation to ollow
him Te lives o these individuals were enriched and in turn enrichedcountless others in ways all o us would want to be true or our own lives
Dietrich Bonhoeffer Jean Vanier and Immaculeacutee Ilibagiza show how heroic
noble and beautiul a Christian lie can be Jesus said ldquoI came that they may
have lie and have it abundantlyrdquo (Jn 983089983088983089983088) Te abundance that so ofen
characterizes a devout Christian lie is not a matter o external goods or
material wealth but is internal and spiritual flowing rom a close personal
relationship with God Lie ocused on God offers comort inspiration anda peace that the vicissitudes o ortune need never take away
Te landscape o academic philosophy has changed significantly in the
last orty or fify years In the 983089983088s and rsquo1048631983088s it was taken or granted in many
philosophical circles that traditional Christian belie is unjustified and ir-
rational Tanks to the work o philosophers such as Alvin Plantinga
Eleonore Stump Peter van Inwagen and Richard Swinburne things have
changed
2
Recent decades have been a time o enormous productivity orphilosophers deending the rationality o Christian aith answering objec-
tions to Christian doctrines improving traditional arguments or the exis-
tence o God and ormulating new ones In the pages that ollow Irsquoll explore
some o the most important results o this body o work Irsquove written this
book though without presupposing that the reader has had ormal training
in philosophy or theology My hope is that it will be useul or anyone who
is interested in the evidence or God or the evidence or Christianity more
particularly I also hope that college students in philosophy and theology
courses will find the material worthwhile
Since this book is about evidence and reasons or religious belie itrsquos
worth addressing at the outset the question o why people believe what they
do on religious issues Isnrsquot religion a matter o the heart Does anyone really
believe on the basis o logic or argument Many committed Christians be-
lieve in God not primarily because o argument but because o experiencemdash
they have an intuitive sense o Godrsquos presence Perhaps not all the time but
certainly much o the time it just seems that God is there aware o what we
do and think Tis is how it is in my own case But what i you donrsquot happen
to have such an experience yoursel Or what i you have it occasionally but
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it is fleeting and open to serious doubt In those cases it makes good sense
to spend some time examining arguments and publicly available evidence
relating to questions about God and religion According to Christianityaith is a gif But or the person who does not have aith a careul look at
arguments or (and against) Christianity is a natural and reasonable step to
take Examination o evidence can also be worthwhile or the person who
does have aith but has doubts too In what ollows I give an extended
presentation o evidence or the truth o Christianity and a rigorous ar-
gument or the reasonableness o Christian commitment
While this book will ocus on the rational case or Christianity itrsquos im-portant to acknowledge that there are many actors involved in a decision
to commit to a Christian way o lie actors that go beyond impersonal
philosophical reasoning Onersquos upbringing onersquos experiences with indi-
vidual Christians the attitudes and views o onersquos closest riends and amily
onersquos emotional lie onersquos deep-seated hopes and ears and onersquos own par-
ticular way o viewing the worldmdashall o these come into play when one
encounters the message o Jesus I believe that the philosophical argumen-tation contained in this book will be helpul to many people but philo-
sophical argumentation is only one part o a larger picture When it comes
to religion logic may or may not be where one starts but itrsquos certainly not
where one should end Living a Christian lie is an act o the whole personmdash
mind and heart body and soul Still precisely because a Christian lie in-
volves the whole person there is a place or the mind and thus or reason
evidence and logic
Finally a ew words are called or regarding a concept that will play a
key role in what ollows probability Everyone has many belies but some
o those belies are held more confidently than others For example I be-
lieve that Irsquoll still be alive twenty-our hours rom now Irsquom not absolutely
certain I will be but nonetheless I do believe it I also believe Irsquoll be alive
twenty-our days rom now But Irsquom less confident in this belie than in my
belie about being alive twenty-our hours rom now How about twenty-
our years rom now In my case I wouldnrsquot say that I believe Irsquoll be alive
twenty-our years rom now I also donrsquot believe I wonrsquot be alive twenty-
our years rom nowmdashtherersquos just not enough inormation to orm a belie
one way or the other
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Introduction 852017852023
Philosophers sometimes use the language o ldquolevels o confidencerdquo when
discussing belies and probability Levels o confidence come in a scale rom
zero to one (or 983088 percent to 983089983088983088 percent) o be absolutely certain o some-thing (eg 983089 + 983089 = 1048626) is to assign it a level o confidence o 983089 o be absolutely
certain a claim is alse (eg 983089 + 983089 = 9830891048631) is to assign it a level o confidence o
983088 In such a situation one could say that the probability o the claim is 983088
percent Terersquos just no chance that yoursquove gotten conused and ldquo983089 + 983089 = 9830891048631rdquo
is really true What about a proposition like ldquothis normal penny will come
up heads when I flip itrdquo Here itrsquos reasonable to assign equal levels o confi-
dence both to this claim and to the claim that the penny will come up tailsSo wersquod assign both claims a level o confidence o 9830881048629 and we could say that
the chance the coin will be heads is 1048629983088 percent How confident am I that this
six-sided die will show either a 983089 or a 1048626 when I roll it 104862710486271048627 percent You get
the idea
Te word probability will come up ofen in this book Irsquoll sometimes also
talk about how likely something is or what the chance is that such-and-such
is true Unless otherwise noted these are all just different ways to talk aboutthe same thing what philosophers call epistemic probability Roughly the
epistemic probability o a proposition (that is a statement or a claim) is the
level o confidence itrsquos reasonable to assign to that proposition3
Probability evidence moral heroism commitment all o these actors
will enter into our discussion o the reasonableness o Christian theism But
enough with introductory matters On to deeper waters
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- Part One -
UNCERTAINTY
and
COMMITMENT
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- 983089 -
A CURIOUS OFFER
I983149983137983143983145983150983141 983156983144983137983156 983151983150983141 983140983137983161 you receive a phone call rom a abulously
wealthy individualmdashan eccentric billionaire known or spending his money
in odd and trivial ways He makes you a curious offer You are to determine
the religion you think most likely to be true and then practice that religion
devoutly attend religious services read the sacred scriptures o that religion
pray as that religion prescribes and live out the religionrsquos moral teachings
And he asks you to do this or the rest o your lie His part o the bargainwill be to place 983076983089983088 billion in an escrow account to be deliverable on your
death to whatever persons or causes you have named You can leave the
money to your amily or to a charitable organization or to scientific re-
search or any combination o the above whatever you think best I you
choose not to enter into the bargain he adds he will be using the money to
hire tens o thousands o artists to paint millions and millions o mediocre
oil paintings o his pet dog ScoutO course i this actually happened to you yoursquod be a mite skeptical But
imagine that afer due diligence you became convinced that this was no joke
And the billionaire clarified that you did not have to lie or otherwise mis-
represent yoursel in order to ulfill your side o the bargain I or example
you chose Christianity as the religion you thought most likely to be true you
would not have to recite the creed during the liturgy i you did not believe
it And your prayers could be conditional as in ldquoI yoursquore there God thank
you or this and please help me with thatrdquo An odd offer to be sure but also
in all probability the only chance yoursquoll ever have to direct 983076983089983088 billion o
wealth to persons or causes you care about So what would you do Would
you accept the offer
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Perhaps the act that the payoff is mere monetary gain gives you pause
Good or you to trade onersquos religious devotion or money would be base But
remember that you can name whatever beneficiary yoursquod like includingcharitable organizations that work with the poorest o the poor You can
trade your religious devotion or ood or the starving or education or
impoverished children in the developing world On board yet Say that the
billionaire adds that he doesnrsquot want to make this offer i you already happen
to be certain or almost certain that God does not exist His offer is only or
people who can say o some particular religion that there is at least a decent
chance that it is trueNow consider an alternative scenario Suppose that rom the get-go the
billionaire had offered you a different bargain the payoff is not a guaranteed
983076983089983088 billion but a 1048629983088 percent shot at 983076983089983088983088 billion Tat is suppose the bil-
lionairersquos side o the bargain is to put 983076983089983088983088 billion in an escrow account Ten
afer your death a air coin will be flipped I it comes up heads the entire
983076983089983088983088 billion will be given to your named beneficiary or beneficiaries I tails
then wersquoll have a lot o pictures o Scout Would you accept this offerHold on to that thought
Te overarching question o this book is the question o whether there is
good reason to make a serious commitment to living a Christian lie In part
two wersquoll take a tour o the evidence or Christianity But beore that the
question to ask first is ldquoHow much evidence would be required to make a
Christian commitment reasonablerdquo As Irsquoll try to show here in part one a
serious Christian commitment is recommended by reason even i there is
as little as a 1048629983088 percent chance that Christianity is true In other words i
you are willing to grant that Christianity is at least as likely as not then it is
rational or you to commit to living a devout Christian lie Indeed i yoursquore
in ordinary circumstances it is irrational or you not to1
P983137983155983139983137983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
Te argument Irsquoll give or this conclusion has its roots in the reflections o
seventeenth-century polymath Blaise Pascal Pascal made important contri-
butions in mathematics probability theory and physics His work on fluid
mechanics was instrumental in the later invention o the hydraulic press
and he himsel designed and built one o the first mechanical calculating
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A Curious Of fer 852018852019
machines an early precursor to the digital computer (Interestingly the
principles used in the machine are still employed in many automobile
odometers) Pascal was an inventor an intellectual and a scientist He wasalso a deeply religious man At the age o thirty-one he had a powerul mys-
tical experience o God He described the experience in a note and stitched
the note into his coat keeping it close to him He evidently transerred the
paper note (together with a cleaner copy he put down on parchment) rom
coat to coat or the rest o his liemdasha servant ound them afer his death
Pascal suffered rom ill health dying at only thirty-nine In his final years
he was drafing a work o apologetics Te disorganized ragments that werehis notes or the project were published posthumously and quickly became
a classic Pascalrsquos Pensees (French or ldquothoughtsrdquo)2 In one o those ragments
Pascal gives an argument not or the theoretical conclusion that God exists
but or the practical conclusion that one should live a devout Christian lie
Te argument is addressed to those who arenrsquot sure whether Christianity is
true or alse and has come to be known as Pascalrsquos wager o be precise the
ragment contains the seeds o our different arguments in support o reli-gious commitment3 Te strongest version comes down to this It is rational
to seek a relationship with God and live a deeply Christian lie because there
is very much to gain and relatively little to lose In chapter two Irsquoll present a
strengthened and expanded version o this argument I Christianity is
indeed true then by committing to live a Christian lie one brings great joy
to God and all others in heaven raises the chance that one will be with God
orever raises the chance that one will help others attain union with God
expresses gratitude to God and becomes more aware o Godrsquos love and more
receptive to his help in the course o onersquos earthly lie On the other hand i
Christianity is alse the person who commits his or her lie to Jesusrsquo teachings
has still lived a worthwhile lie striving or moral excellence and experi-
encing the benefits o religious community (benefits that contemporary
sociological research reveals to be significant)
Pascalrsquos pragmatic argument in support o religious commitment has had
its share o critics Tus the amous English philosopher G E Moore ldquo[Con-
cerning Pascalrsquos claim that] in our state o doubt we should decide or that
belie which promises the greater reward I have nothing to say o it except
that it seems to me absolutely wickedrdquo4 Voltaire thought the wager was
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ldquosomewhat indecent and childish Te idea o gaming o losing or winning
is quite unsuitable to the dignity o the subjectrdquo5 In much the same vein an
earlier French critic had complained ldquoI lose patience listening to youtreating the highest o all matters and resting the most important truth in
the world the source o all truths on an idea so base and puerile on a com-
parison with a game o heads and tails more productive o mirth than per-
suasionrdquo6 More recently Christopher Hitchens sees Pascalrsquos theology as ldquonot
ar short o sordidrdquo7 remarking that ldquoPascal reminds me o the hypocrites
and rauds who abound in almudic Jewish rationalization Donrsquot do any
work on the Sabbath yoursel but pay someone else to do it You obeyed theletter o the law whorsquos countingrdquo8
Are these objections air Mathematician James Franklin suggests that
Pascalrsquos actual view is ofen replaced with an unflattering caricature o the
wager Franklin contrasts these two views
What Pascal said You have to choose whether to accept religion Tink o it
as a coin toss where you donrsquot know the outcome In this case i you losemdash
therersquos no Godmdashyou have not lost much But i you win there is an infinitepayoff So you should go to Mass and pray or aith [Franklinrsquos paraphrase]
Pascal caricatured Being base and greedy we want lots o goodies in this
lie and i possible the next So we are prepared to give up some pleasures
now on the off chance o a lot more later i our eye to the main chance makes
it look worth our while Since the loot on offer is infinite even a small chance
o raking it in makes it worth a try to grovel to any deity that might do what
we want9
Franklin makes a good point Pascalrsquos argument is ofen interpreted in
the worst possible light Still there are legitimate objections to consider
even when Pascalrsquos reasoning is interpreted airly It may be that it is im-
moral to allow any considerations about cost and benefit to affect what we
believe Perhaps a respect or truth requires that our belies be determined
by evidence and evidence alone Second we must consider whether the
costs o committing to God are simply too high And perhaps the most
common criticism is that Pascal illicitly assumed there were only two op-
tions to consider atheism and (Catholic) Christianity Te many gods ob-
jection as itrsquos ofen called contends that the multitude o possibly true reli-
gions makes trouble or Pascal
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A Curious Of fer 852018852021
In chapters three and our Irsquoll elaborate on these and additional objec-
tions and respond to them But first we need to lay the basic argument
out on the table in more detail and with greater precision In order togive the strongest argument possible Irsquoll set aside the analysis o Pascalrsquos
text and instead develop a Pascalian argument in my own way10 Just or
the sake o having a handy title Irsquoll reer to my argument as ldquothe wagerrdquo
or even ldquoPascalrsquos wagerrdquo but this title should be taken merely as a re-
erence to its original inspiration not as a claim that I am providing a
verbatim reproduction o Pascalrsquos thought Indeed the wager Irsquoll present
takes advantage o cutting-edge work in philosophy and psychology andrecent sociological data unavailable to Pascal and it is thereore able to
greatly improve on his rather sketchy note Since itrsquos impossible to explain
the wager clearly without using some concepts rom decision theory
thatrsquos where wersquoll begin
D983141983139983145983155983145983151983150 T983144983141983151983154983161
Decision theory is about how to make good decisions in circumstances orisk or uncertainty Tree concepts are especially important states strat-
egies and outcomes A state is a possible way things might be (it will rain
today or it wonrsquot rain today) a strategy is a possible action the decider
might take (bring my umbrella or leave it at home) An outcome is a situ-
ation that results when a given strategy is taken and a certain state is actual
(eg the situation o being stuck in the rain without an umbrella) In order
to assess the suitability o the various available strategies the decision
maker attempts to orm a judgment about how valuable the various out-
comes are
For example suppose I offer you a bet I ask a trusted third party to flip
a air coin but not to tell us whether it lands heads or tails Ten I ask you
to decide either to play (that is participate in the bet) or pass I you choose
to play it will cost you one dollar but i you play and the coin has come up
heads you will get your dollar back and I will pay you two more dollars so
you will be up two dollars I you choose to play and the coin comes up tails
however I will keep your dollar so you will be down one dollar I on the
other hand you choose to pass no money will change hands either way
Would you take my bet
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I bet you would Decision theory allows us to say precisely why the bet is
avorable or you Tere are two possible states or you to consider it could
be that the coin has come up heads and it could be that it has come up tailsAt the time you make your decision you donrsquot know which state is the actual
way things are but you do know that itrsquos one or the other Next there are
two possible strategies you can adopt play or pass Corresponding to the
our possible combinations o these states and strategies there are our pos-
sible situations that may resultmdashthese are the outcomes (983089) you play the
game and the coin is heads and so you win two dollars (1048626) you play the
game and the coin is tails so you lose one dollar (1048627) you pass and the coinis heads so you neither gain nor lose and (1048628) you pass and the coin is tails
so you neither gain nor lose In considering the question o what to do the
decision maker is invited to evaluate the outcomes Tat is the decision
maker attempts to estimate how valuable the various outcomes are In this
case the monetary value o outcome 983089 or you is two dollars or outcome 1048626
it is minus one dollar and or outcomes 1048627 and 1048628 zero In the case o most
actual decisions values other than money are at stake But starting with an
example using money is a good way to get an initial grasp o decision theory
Decision theorists commonly use a ldquodecision matrixrdquo to sum up inor-
mation relevant to a decision In our case we need a two-by-two matrix Te
columns correspond to the two possible states o the world and the rows
correspond to the two strategies you might take In the cells we write down
the valuations o the resulting outcomes
Heads Tails
PlayOutcome 1
$2Outcome 2
$-1
PassOutcome 3
$0Outcome 4
$0
Figure 983089983089
Should you play or pass I you only had one dollar to your name and
needed it to buy ood lest you starve then it might not be wise to play But
i yoursquore in ordinary circumstances and the loss o a dollar would be no great
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A Curious Of fer 852018852023
loss then itrsquos rational to play Intuitively this is because yoursquove got an equal
chance o gaining and losing and i you gain you gain twice what you would
lose i you lost More precisely itrsquos because the expected value o playing ishigher than the expected value o passing Te expected value o a strategy
or a given game or bet is the average value per game that would accrue to
you i you played the game an infinite number o times and adopted that
strategy every time Here the expected value o the strategy ldquoplayrdquo can be
calculated by multiplying the probability o each state by the value o its
corresponding outcome and adding up the products So the expected value
o ldquoplayrdquo is equal to
(frac12) times (1048626) + (frac12) times (minus983089) = 1048629983088
I you were offered this bet a large number o times and you chose ldquoplayrdquo
every time yoursquod win an average o about fify cents per game Te expected
value o passing by contrast is
(frac12) times (983088) + (frac12) times (983088) = 983088
One reason playing is a good bet here is that the expected value o playing
(fify cents) is more than the expected value o passing (zero cents) Now as
it turns out itrsquos not always rational to take the strategy that maximizes onersquos
expected value11 But maximizing expected value is ofen a good way to
make decisions that involve risk
For the sake o clarity Irsquove illustrated the concepts o a state a strategy an
outcome and a decision matrix by giving an example with precise monetary
values or outcomes and with definite probabilities assigned to the possiblestates in question In real lie we usually donrsquot have precise probabilities to
assign to the states and much (perhaps most) o what we care about canrsquot
be valued in monetary terms Even in such cases however there are prin-
ciples that can guide our decision making
One such principle is at play when we say things like ldquoIrsquoll do X because it
canrsquot hurt and it might helprdquo or ldquoYou should do Y because therersquos nothing to
lose and maybe a lot to gainrdquo Suppose yoursquove borrowed your riendrsquos bicycleand have cycled to a store on the edge o town You put the lock around the
bike and a parking sign and as yoursquore lifing the key to lock up the bike it
occurs to you that this part o town is very sae and therersquos hardly any chance
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the bike will be stolen Besides when yoursquore inside the bike will be in your
view through the store window As you finish thinking this yoursquove also just
put the key into the lock So should you lock up the bike You donrsquot have anyprecise knowledge about the probability o thef in the circumstances and
while you could estimate the value o the bike therersquos no obvious way to
calculate the disvalue your riend would experience i your negligence got his
bike stolen Despite your lack o knowledge on those points though itrsquos clear
enough what you should do all you have to do to lock the bike is turn your
wrist A decision theorist could map out your situation like this
A thief will happen by A thief wont happen by
Lock Nothing bad happens Nothing bad happens
Dontlock
Bike stolen (probably) Nothing bad happens
Figure 983089 983090
I a motivated capable thie is in act coming along the strategy o locking
will result in a ar better outcome while i such a thie wonrsquot happen by locking
is no worse than unlocking (by the time o your decision itrsquos just so easy to
lock that therersquos no cost to locking) In the language o game theory we say
that the strategy o locking ldquoweakly dominatesrdquo the strategy o not locking
One strategy weakly dominates another i (and only i) there is at least one
possible state o the world on which the first strategy delivers a better outcome
than the second and there are no possible states o the world on which the
first strategy delivers a worse outcome than second In other words depending
on how things turn out adopting a weakly dominant strategy will either end
up yielding a better result than adopting the other strategy would have or it
will end up yielding a result that is just as good as what yoursquod have gotten with
the other strategy In a situation o uncertainty when we donrsquot know which o
several possible states o the world is the true one it is always better to adopt
a weakly dominant strategy instead o the strategy it dominates
In case yoursquore wondering one strategy strongly dominates another
strategy i and only i it delivers a better outcome on every possible state o
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A Curious Of fer 8520181048633
the world O course strongly dominant strategies are even more preerable
than weakly dominant strategies when you can get them
Decision theorists have other principles to help guide us in uncertaintyBut itrsquos worth noting that in some cases we donrsquot need a general principle
Sometimes we can just see what the smart thing to do is especially i wersquove
laid out the inormation in a decision matrix For example suppose again
that a trusted third party flips a coin or us but doesnrsquot say whether it lands
heads or tails Now imagine that I credibly make you this offer i you choose
to play and itrsquos heads then Irsquoll give you a million dollars while yoursquoll owe
me one dollar i itrsquos tails and yoursquove chosen to play I you choose to pass nomoney is exchanged either way We could represent this with the matrix
Heads Tails
PlayOutcome 1
$1000000Outcome 2
$-1
PassOutcome 3
$0Outcome 4
$0
Figure 983089 983091
Here we canrsquot say that playing weakly dominates passing because i the
coin is tails you do slightly better by passing But itrsquos one dollar wersquore talking
about Strictly speaking playing is not a weakly dominant strategy here but
itrsquos close enough Te payoff is so much greater i the coin is heads and the
loss is so little i itrsquos tails that itrsquos clearly rational to play Perhaps we couldstate a precise universally valid principle that would apply in this case and
tell us what to do but we donrsquot really need one we can just see what the
smart move is Tis insight will prove helpul later on
With these preliminaries behind us we can now turn to the wager A
consideration o this argument will allow us to see that Christian com-
mitment is recommended by reason so long as the available evidence makes
it at least as likely as not that the central claims o Christianity are true
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T A K I N G
P A S C A L rsquo S
W A G E R
F A I T H E V I D E N C E and the A B U N D A N T L I F E
MI CH AE L ROTA
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InterVarsity Press
PO Box 983089983092983088983088 Downers Grove IL 983094983088983093983089983093-983089983092983090983094
ivpresscom
emailivpresscom
copy983090983088983089983094 by Michael Rota
All rights reserved No part of this book may be reproduced in any form without written permission from
InterVarsity Press
InterVarsity Pressreg is the book-publishing division of InterVarsity Christian FellowshipUSAreg a movement of
students and faculty active on campus at hundreds of universities colleges and schools of nursing in the United
States of America and a member movement of the International Fellowship of Evangelical Students For
information about local and regional activities visit intervarsityorg
Scripture quotations unless otherwise noted are from the New Revised Standard Version of the Bible copyright
983089983097983096983097 by the Division of Christian Education of the National Council of the Churches of Christ in the USA Used by
permission All rights reservedCover design David Fassett
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ISBN 983097983095983096-983088-983096983091983088983096-983093983089983091983094-983090 (print)
ISBN 983097983095983096-983088-983096983091983088983096-983097983097983097983097-983097 (digital)
Printed in the United States of America
As a member of the Green Press Initiative InterVarsity Press is committed to protecting
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Names Rota Michael 983089983097983095983093- author
itle aking Pascalrsquos wager faith evidence and the abundant life
Michael Rota
Description Downers Grove InterVarsity Press 983090983088983089983094 | Includes
bibliographical references and index
Identifiers LCCN 983090983088983089983094983088983088983095983097983090983090 (print) | LCCN 983090983088983089983094983088983089983088983094983094983090 (ebook) | ISBN
983097983095983096983088983096983091983088983096983093983089983091983094983090 (pbk alk paper) | ISBN 983097983095983096983088983096983091983088983096983097983097983097983097983097 (eBook)
Subjects LCSH Faith and reason--Christianity | Apologetics | Pascal
Blaise 983089983094983090983091-983089983094983094983090 Pensacircees | Philosophical theology
Classification LCC B983093983088 R983094983092983093 983090983088983089983094 (print) | LCC B983093983088 (ebook) | DDC 983090983091983097--dc983090983091
LC record available at httplccnlocgov983090983088983089983094983088983088983095983097983090983090
P 983090983091 983090983090 983090983089 983090983088 983089983097 983089983096 983089983095 983089983094 983089983093 983089983092 983089983091 983089983090 983089983089 983089983088 983097 983096 983095 983094 983093 983092 983091 983090 983089
Y 983091983093 983091983092 983091983091 983091983090 983091983089 983091983088 983090983097 983090983096 983090983095 983090983094 983090983093 983090983092 983090983091 983090983090 983090983089 983090983088 983089983097 983089983096 983089983095 983089983094
Copyrighted Material wwwivpresscompermissions
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CONTENTS
Acknowledgments 983097
Introduction 10486251048625
P983137983154983156 983089 U983150983139983141983154983156983137983145983150983156983161 983137983150983140 C983151983149983149983145983156983149983141983150983156
1048625 A Curious Oer 9830901048625
983090 Pascalrsquos Wager he Basic Argument 9830911048624
983091 Objections to the Wager Moral Reservations and
the Cost o Commitment 983093983090
983092 More Objections to the Wager Other Religions
and Christianity 983094983093
P983137983154983156 983090 E983158983145983140983141983150983139983141
983093 Where Did Physical hings Come From 983096983091
983094 Why Is the Universe Just Right or Lie 983097983097
983095 A Primer on Probability 10486251048625983091
983096 God and the Multiverse 1048625983090983093
983097 he Beauty and Existential Resonance o Christianity 1048625983091983093
10486251048624 Counterevidence Divine Hiddenness and Evil 1048625983092983091
10486251048625 Historical Evidence or Christianity he Resurrection 1048625983093983092
1048625983090 Miracle or Myth 1048625983094983093
P983137983154983156 983091 S983137983161983145983150983143 Y983141983155 983156983151 G983151983140
1048625983091 Dietrich Bonhoeer 104862598309610486251048625983092 Jean Vanier 1048625983097983093
1048625983093 Immaculeacutee Ilibagiza 98309010486251048625
Conclusion aking the Wager 9830909830901048625
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Notes 983090983090983091
Author Index 983090983092983093
Subject Index 983090983092983095
Scripture Index 983090983092983097
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INTRODUCTION
I983155 983145983156 983154983137983156983145983151983150983137983148 983156983151 983138983141983148983145983141983158983141 983145983150 G983151983140983103 Is it reasonable to commit
onesel to Godmdashto live a deeply religious lie And how much certainty does
one need beore the time has come to decide I yoursquove pondered these ques-
tions beore this book is or you
I was raised Catholic although religion was not a major part o our amily
lie We prayed beore meals and went to church on most Sundays but there
was little discussion o religious matters and no regular personal prayer atleast not on my part Sometime in my early teens I began to wonder about
the truth o the religion I had been born into Does God really exist I he
does then relationship with God is the most important part o human lie
But i he doesnrsquot then the religious person is enmeshed in a massive de-
ception ldquoWe believe in one God the Father the Almighty rdquo I ound
mysel saying at Mass But did I really mean it I wasnrsquot sure and the ear
that I was being dishonest concerned meI continued to wonder about God and the rationality o Christianity
throughout high school in college and in graduate school Now as a pro-
essor o philosophy itrsquos my job to think about these topics every day My
research ocuses on the rationality o religious belie and I wrestle with ar-
guments or and against God with classes ull o students rom every point
o view almost every semester I have become convinced that it is rational
to live a deeply religious Christian lie Indeed it may be irrational not to
When contemplating the choice to commit to living a Christian lie one
might suppose that one should rerain rom making a commitment in the
absence o rock-solid evidence or the truth o Christianity Reflection on
personal relationships suggests otherwise In Te Will to Believe William
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852017852018 983137983147983145 983150983143 P983137983155983139983137 983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
James asks us to consider a man who hesitates ldquoindefinitely to ask a certain
woman to marry him because he [is] not perectly sure that she would
prove [to be] an angel afer he brought her home Would he not cut himseloff rom that particular angel-possibility as decisively as i he went and
married some one elserdquo1 In the area o romantic love it can be reasonable
to invest deeply in a relationship and eventually make a lielong com-
mitment to the beloved despite the absence o airtight evidence that the
marriage will be a happy one Because there is so much at stake it can be
reasonable to make a commitment to a personal relationship even when
absolute certainty proves elusive Applying this to the question o Godeven i the evidence or God lef some room or doubt considerations
about the possible value o a relationship with God might avor the decision
to make a religious commitment
Seventeenth-century French mathematician and theologian Blaise Pascal
gave an argument that expands on this insight Pascalrsquos wager as the ar-
gument has come to be known addresses those who arenrsquot sure whether
Christianity is true but think that it might be true Te argument can besummed up in a single sentence It is rational to seek a relationship with God
and live a deeply Christian lie because there is very much to gain and rela-
tively little to lose
As the wager is usually presented whatrsquos to gain is eternal happiness or
the wagerer An alternative and more powerul version o the argument
however ocuses not just on sel-interest but also on goods that go beyond
sel-interest I one commits to God and God does in act exist one brings
joy to God and one is better able to help others attain union with God And
i Jesus really is who he claimed to be we may even have a moral duty to
commit to living a Christian lie I Christianity is true we have a duty to
love God and have been called by God himsel who has given us everything
good that we have to live a deeply religious lie More than just sel-interest
can motivate one to take the wager
On the other hand i Christianity is alse the committed Christian has
still lived a meaningul lie has pursued moral excellence and has enjoyed
the many empirically well-attested benefits o belonging to a religious com-
munity Much to gain relatively little to lose
In part one o this book (chapters one through our) Irsquoll present an updated
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Introduction 852017852019
version o Pascalrsquos wager strengthened by cutting-edge research rom psy-
chologists sociologists and philosophers Afer introducing and laying out
the basic argument in chapters one and two I turn to objections to the wagerin chapters three and our Tese include the objections that committing to
God on the basis o pragmatic considerations is immoral that the cost o
religious commitment is too high that the existence o religions other than
Christianity nullifies the argument and that Christian doctrine itsel casts
doubt on the wager When addressing this last issue I discuss grace ree will
and predestination
In part two (chapters five through twelve) Irsquoll take a careul look at argu-ments or the existence o God and the truth o Christianity showing howmdash
once we no longer demand certaintymdashthe available evidence is sufficient to
make serious Christian commitment entirely reasonable ogether parts
one and two present the bookrsquos main argument which can be summarized
as ollows
I Christianity has at least a 1048629983088 percent chance o being true then it is rational
to commit to living a Christian lie (the conclusion o part one)
Christianity does have at least a 1048629983088 percent chance o being true (the con-
clusion o part two)
Tus it is rational to commit to living a Christian lie
Te argument o part two proceeds in two stages First I present evidence
or theism (the view that there is a God) second I present evidence or the
more specific view o Christian theism I begin by asking the question o whyphysical reality exists at all Chapter five argues that there is at least one nec-
essarily existing being which explains the existence o contingent beings
(Contingent beings are things that reality didnrsquot have to include like all the
physical objects we see around us) Chapters six through eight then provide
an argument that the cause o physical reality is an intelligent being In the
last several decades mainstream physicists and astronomers have come to
realize that the lie-permitting character o our universe is balanced on a
kniersquos edge i several eatures had been ever-so-slightly different rom what
they in act are then stable sel-reproducing lie would not have been able
to arise Chapter six introduces some o the scientific evidence or this con-
clusion and gives a preliminary statement o what has come to be known as
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852017852020 983137983147983145 983150983143 P983137983155983139983137 983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
the fine-tuning argument Tis argument has been summarized or non-
specialists in several places but not always with enough rigor and back-
ground or the strength o the case to be ully displayed In chapter seven Iexplain the parts o probability theory required to appreciate the power o
the evidence that our universe is the product o an intelligence Chapter eight
contains an original reply to the strongest alternative to design the multi-
verse hypothesis (Tis is the hypothesis that our universe is just one o a vast
number o universes most o which are not lie permitting) aken together
chapters five through eight provide evidence or God drawing on the best
recent research but written so as to be accessible to the general readerIn chapter nine I turn to specifically Christian doctrines suggesting that
the beauty and existential resonance o Christianity are clues to its truth
Chapter ten concerns the two most powerul arguments against theism the
argument rom divine hiddenness and the argument rom evil (As argu-
ments against all orms o theism they are arguments against Christian
theism as well) Tese topics deserve not a single chapter but whole books
o their own And they have them So in chapter ten I summarize what I taketo be the strongest replies to the arguments rom hiddenness and evil o-
cusing on the recent work o Peter van Inwagen and Eleonore Stump Finally
in chapters eleven and twelve I turn to arguments or the resurrection o
Jesus Tis is just one o many Christian doctrines o course but logically
speaking it holds a special place I one has reason to believe that Jesus rose
rom the dead then one has reason to believe that Jesusrsquo teachings have
the divine stamp o approval and are thereore true So an argument or the
resurrection is an argument or the truth o Christianity (or at least the
larger part o one) In this pair o chapters I draw on the most recent work
on the issue by historians theologians and philosophers While I think that
the evidence o part two is by itsel sufficient to justiy belie in Christianity
agreement on this point is not required or the main argument o the book
to succeed For given the argument o part one all that is required or a
demonstration o the rationality o Christian commitment is that the evi-
dence render Christianity at least as likely as not
Itrsquos sometimes said that the longest distance in the world is the distance
rom the head to the heart And so in part three Irsquoll try to illustrate how a
lie o Christian commitment is not just reasonable but worth desiring as
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Introduction 852017852021
wellmdashsatisying both the head and the heart o do this Irsquoll tell the stories
o three exemplary individuals who took Jesus up on his invitation to ollow
him Te lives o these individuals were enriched and in turn enrichedcountless others in ways all o us would want to be true or our own lives
Dietrich Bonhoeffer Jean Vanier and Immaculeacutee Ilibagiza show how heroic
noble and beautiul a Christian lie can be Jesus said ldquoI came that they may
have lie and have it abundantlyrdquo (Jn 983089983088983089983088) Te abundance that so ofen
characterizes a devout Christian lie is not a matter o external goods or
material wealth but is internal and spiritual flowing rom a close personal
relationship with God Lie ocused on God offers comort inspiration anda peace that the vicissitudes o ortune need never take away
Te landscape o academic philosophy has changed significantly in the
last orty or fify years In the 983089983088s and rsquo1048631983088s it was taken or granted in many
philosophical circles that traditional Christian belie is unjustified and ir-
rational Tanks to the work o philosophers such as Alvin Plantinga
Eleonore Stump Peter van Inwagen and Richard Swinburne things have
changed
2
Recent decades have been a time o enormous productivity orphilosophers deending the rationality o Christian aith answering objec-
tions to Christian doctrines improving traditional arguments or the exis-
tence o God and ormulating new ones In the pages that ollow Irsquoll explore
some o the most important results o this body o work Irsquove written this
book though without presupposing that the reader has had ormal training
in philosophy or theology My hope is that it will be useul or anyone who
is interested in the evidence or God or the evidence or Christianity more
particularly I also hope that college students in philosophy and theology
courses will find the material worthwhile
Since this book is about evidence and reasons or religious belie itrsquos
worth addressing at the outset the question o why people believe what they
do on religious issues Isnrsquot religion a matter o the heart Does anyone really
believe on the basis o logic or argument Many committed Christians be-
lieve in God not primarily because o argument but because o experiencemdash
they have an intuitive sense o Godrsquos presence Perhaps not all the time but
certainly much o the time it just seems that God is there aware o what we
do and think Tis is how it is in my own case But what i you donrsquot happen
to have such an experience yoursel Or what i you have it occasionally but
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8520171048630 983137983147983145 983150983143 P983137983155983139983137 983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
it is fleeting and open to serious doubt In those cases it makes good sense
to spend some time examining arguments and publicly available evidence
relating to questions about God and religion According to Christianityaith is a gif But or the person who does not have aith a careul look at
arguments or (and against) Christianity is a natural and reasonable step to
take Examination o evidence can also be worthwhile or the person who
does have aith but has doubts too In what ollows I give an extended
presentation o evidence or the truth o Christianity and a rigorous ar-
gument or the reasonableness o Christian commitment
While this book will ocus on the rational case or Christianity itrsquos im-portant to acknowledge that there are many actors involved in a decision
to commit to a Christian way o lie actors that go beyond impersonal
philosophical reasoning Onersquos upbringing onersquos experiences with indi-
vidual Christians the attitudes and views o onersquos closest riends and amily
onersquos emotional lie onersquos deep-seated hopes and ears and onersquos own par-
ticular way o viewing the worldmdashall o these come into play when one
encounters the message o Jesus I believe that the philosophical argumen-tation contained in this book will be helpul to many people but philo-
sophical argumentation is only one part o a larger picture When it comes
to religion logic may or may not be where one starts but itrsquos certainly not
where one should end Living a Christian lie is an act o the whole personmdash
mind and heart body and soul Still precisely because a Christian lie in-
volves the whole person there is a place or the mind and thus or reason
evidence and logic
Finally a ew words are called or regarding a concept that will play a
key role in what ollows probability Everyone has many belies but some
o those belies are held more confidently than others For example I be-
lieve that Irsquoll still be alive twenty-our hours rom now Irsquom not absolutely
certain I will be but nonetheless I do believe it I also believe Irsquoll be alive
twenty-our days rom now But Irsquom less confident in this belie than in my
belie about being alive twenty-our hours rom now How about twenty-
our years rom now In my case I wouldnrsquot say that I believe Irsquoll be alive
twenty-our years rom now I also donrsquot believe I wonrsquot be alive twenty-
our years rom nowmdashtherersquos just not enough inormation to orm a belie
one way or the other
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Introduction 852017852023
Philosophers sometimes use the language o ldquolevels o confidencerdquo when
discussing belies and probability Levels o confidence come in a scale rom
zero to one (or 983088 percent to 983089983088983088 percent) o be absolutely certain o some-thing (eg 983089 + 983089 = 1048626) is to assign it a level o confidence o 983089 o be absolutely
certain a claim is alse (eg 983089 + 983089 = 9830891048631) is to assign it a level o confidence o
983088 In such a situation one could say that the probability o the claim is 983088
percent Terersquos just no chance that yoursquove gotten conused and ldquo983089 + 983089 = 9830891048631rdquo
is really true What about a proposition like ldquothis normal penny will come
up heads when I flip itrdquo Here itrsquos reasonable to assign equal levels o confi-
dence both to this claim and to the claim that the penny will come up tailsSo wersquod assign both claims a level o confidence o 9830881048629 and we could say that
the chance the coin will be heads is 1048629983088 percent How confident am I that this
six-sided die will show either a 983089 or a 1048626 when I roll it 104862710486271048627 percent You get
the idea
Te word probability will come up ofen in this book Irsquoll sometimes also
talk about how likely something is or what the chance is that such-and-such
is true Unless otherwise noted these are all just different ways to talk aboutthe same thing what philosophers call epistemic probability Roughly the
epistemic probability o a proposition (that is a statement or a claim) is the
level o confidence itrsquos reasonable to assign to that proposition3
Probability evidence moral heroism commitment all o these actors
will enter into our discussion o the reasonableness o Christian theism But
enough with introductory matters On to deeper waters
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- Part One -
UNCERTAINTY
and
COMMITMENT
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- 983089 -
A CURIOUS OFFER
I983149983137983143983145983150983141 983156983144983137983156 983151983150983141 983140983137983161 you receive a phone call rom a abulously
wealthy individualmdashan eccentric billionaire known or spending his money
in odd and trivial ways He makes you a curious offer You are to determine
the religion you think most likely to be true and then practice that religion
devoutly attend religious services read the sacred scriptures o that religion
pray as that religion prescribes and live out the religionrsquos moral teachings
And he asks you to do this or the rest o your lie His part o the bargainwill be to place 983076983089983088 billion in an escrow account to be deliverable on your
death to whatever persons or causes you have named You can leave the
money to your amily or to a charitable organization or to scientific re-
search or any combination o the above whatever you think best I you
choose not to enter into the bargain he adds he will be using the money to
hire tens o thousands o artists to paint millions and millions o mediocre
oil paintings o his pet dog ScoutO course i this actually happened to you yoursquod be a mite skeptical But
imagine that afer due diligence you became convinced that this was no joke
And the billionaire clarified that you did not have to lie or otherwise mis-
represent yoursel in order to ulfill your side o the bargain I or example
you chose Christianity as the religion you thought most likely to be true you
would not have to recite the creed during the liturgy i you did not believe
it And your prayers could be conditional as in ldquoI yoursquore there God thank
you or this and please help me with thatrdquo An odd offer to be sure but also
in all probability the only chance yoursquoll ever have to direct 983076983089983088 billion o
wealth to persons or causes you care about So what would you do Would
you accept the offer
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Perhaps the act that the payoff is mere monetary gain gives you pause
Good or you to trade onersquos religious devotion or money would be base But
remember that you can name whatever beneficiary yoursquod like includingcharitable organizations that work with the poorest o the poor You can
trade your religious devotion or ood or the starving or education or
impoverished children in the developing world On board yet Say that the
billionaire adds that he doesnrsquot want to make this offer i you already happen
to be certain or almost certain that God does not exist His offer is only or
people who can say o some particular religion that there is at least a decent
chance that it is trueNow consider an alternative scenario Suppose that rom the get-go the
billionaire had offered you a different bargain the payoff is not a guaranteed
983076983089983088 billion but a 1048629983088 percent shot at 983076983089983088983088 billion Tat is suppose the bil-
lionairersquos side o the bargain is to put 983076983089983088983088 billion in an escrow account Ten
afer your death a air coin will be flipped I it comes up heads the entire
983076983089983088983088 billion will be given to your named beneficiary or beneficiaries I tails
then wersquoll have a lot o pictures o Scout Would you accept this offerHold on to that thought
Te overarching question o this book is the question o whether there is
good reason to make a serious commitment to living a Christian lie In part
two wersquoll take a tour o the evidence or Christianity But beore that the
question to ask first is ldquoHow much evidence would be required to make a
Christian commitment reasonablerdquo As Irsquoll try to show here in part one a
serious Christian commitment is recommended by reason even i there is
as little as a 1048629983088 percent chance that Christianity is true In other words i
you are willing to grant that Christianity is at least as likely as not then it is
rational or you to commit to living a devout Christian lie Indeed i yoursquore
in ordinary circumstances it is irrational or you not to1
P983137983155983139983137983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
Te argument Irsquoll give or this conclusion has its roots in the reflections o
seventeenth-century polymath Blaise Pascal Pascal made important contri-
butions in mathematics probability theory and physics His work on fluid
mechanics was instrumental in the later invention o the hydraulic press
and he himsel designed and built one o the first mechanical calculating
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A Curious Of fer 852018852019
machines an early precursor to the digital computer (Interestingly the
principles used in the machine are still employed in many automobile
odometers) Pascal was an inventor an intellectual and a scientist He wasalso a deeply religious man At the age o thirty-one he had a powerul mys-
tical experience o God He described the experience in a note and stitched
the note into his coat keeping it close to him He evidently transerred the
paper note (together with a cleaner copy he put down on parchment) rom
coat to coat or the rest o his liemdasha servant ound them afer his death
Pascal suffered rom ill health dying at only thirty-nine In his final years
he was drafing a work o apologetics Te disorganized ragments that werehis notes or the project were published posthumously and quickly became
a classic Pascalrsquos Pensees (French or ldquothoughtsrdquo)2 In one o those ragments
Pascal gives an argument not or the theoretical conclusion that God exists
but or the practical conclusion that one should live a devout Christian lie
Te argument is addressed to those who arenrsquot sure whether Christianity is
true or alse and has come to be known as Pascalrsquos wager o be precise the
ragment contains the seeds o our different arguments in support o reli-gious commitment3 Te strongest version comes down to this It is rational
to seek a relationship with God and live a deeply Christian lie because there
is very much to gain and relatively little to lose In chapter two Irsquoll present a
strengthened and expanded version o this argument I Christianity is
indeed true then by committing to live a Christian lie one brings great joy
to God and all others in heaven raises the chance that one will be with God
orever raises the chance that one will help others attain union with God
expresses gratitude to God and becomes more aware o Godrsquos love and more
receptive to his help in the course o onersquos earthly lie On the other hand i
Christianity is alse the person who commits his or her lie to Jesusrsquo teachings
has still lived a worthwhile lie striving or moral excellence and experi-
encing the benefits o religious community (benefits that contemporary
sociological research reveals to be significant)
Pascalrsquos pragmatic argument in support o religious commitment has had
its share o critics Tus the amous English philosopher G E Moore ldquo[Con-
cerning Pascalrsquos claim that] in our state o doubt we should decide or that
belie which promises the greater reward I have nothing to say o it except
that it seems to me absolutely wickedrdquo4 Voltaire thought the wager was
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ldquosomewhat indecent and childish Te idea o gaming o losing or winning
is quite unsuitable to the dignity o the subjectrdquo5 In much the same vein an
earlier French critic had complained ldquoI lose patience listening to youtreating the highest o all matters and resting the most important truth in
the world the source o all truths on an idea so base and puerile on a com-
parison with a game o heads and tails more productive o mirth than per-
suasionrdquo6 More recently Christopher Hitchens sees Pascalrsquos theology as ldquonot
ar short o sordidrdquo7 remarking that ldquoPascal reminds me o the hypocrites
and rauds who abound in almudic Jewish rationalization Donrsquot do any
work on the Sabbath yoursel but pay someone else to do it You obeyed theletter o the law whorsquos countingrdquo8
Are these objections air Mathematician James Franklin suggests that
Pascalrsquos actual view is ofen replaced with an unflattering caricature o the
wager Franklin contrasts these two views
What Pascal said You have to choose whether to accept religion Tink o it
as a coin toss where you donrsquot know the outcome In this case i you losemdash
therersquos no Godmdashyou have not lost much But i you win there is an infinitepayoff So you should go to Mass and pray or aith [Franklinrsquos paraphrase]
Pascal caricatured Being base and greedy we want lots o goodies in this
lie and i possible the next So we are prepared to give up some pleasures
now on the off chance o a lot more later i our eye to the main chance makes
it look worth our while Since the loot on offer is infinite even a small chance
o raking it in makes it worth a try to grovel to any deity that might do what
we want9
Franklin makes a good point Pascalrsquos argument is ofen interpreted in
the worst possible light Still there are legitimate objections to consider
even when Pascalrsquos reasoning is interpreted airly It may be that it is im-
moral to allow any considerations about cost and benefit to affect what we
believe Perhaps a respect or truth requires that our belies be determined
by evidence and evidence alone Second we must consider whether the
costs o committing to God are simply too high And perhaps the most
common criticism is that Pascal illicitly assumed there were only two op-
tions to consider atheism and (Catholic) Christianity Te many gods ob-
jection as itrsquos ofen called contends that the multitude o possibly true reli-
gions makes trouble or Pascal
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A Curious Of fer 852018852021
In chapters three and our Irsquoll elaborate on these and additional objec-
tions and respond to them But first we need to lay the basic argument
out on the table in more detail and with greater precision In order togive the strongest argument possible Irsquoll set aside the analysis o Pascalrsquos
text and instead develop a Pascalian argument in my own way10 Just or
the sake o having a handy title Irsquoll reer to my argument as ldquothe wagerrdquo
or even ldquoPascalrsquos wagerrdquo but this title should be taken merely as a re-
erence to its original inspiration not as a claim that I am providing a
verbatim reproduction o Pascalrsquos thought Indeed the wager Irsquoll present
takes advantage o cutting-edge work in philosophy and psychology andrecent sociological data unavailable to Pascal and it is thereore able to
greatly improve on his rather sketchy note Since itrsquos impossible to explain
the wager clearly without using some concepts rom decision theory
thatrsquos where wersquoll begin
D983141983139983145983155983145983151983150 T983144983141983151983154983161
Decision theory is about how to make good decisions in circumstances orisk or uncertainty Tree concepts are especially important states strat-
egies and outcomes A state is a possible way things might be (it will rain
today or it wonrsquot rain today) a strategy is a possible action the decider
might take (bring my umbrella or leave it at home) An outcome is a situ-
ation that results when a given strategy is taken and a certain state is actual
(eg the situation o being stuck in the rain without an umbrella) In order
to assess the suitability o the various available strategies the decision
maker attempts to orm a judgment about how valuable the various out-
comes are
For example suppose I offer you a bet I ask a trusted third party to flip
a air coin but not to tell us whether it lands heads or tails Ten I ask you
to decide either to play (that is participate in the bet) or pass I you choose
to play it will cost you one dollar but i you play and the coin has come up
heads you will get your dollar back and I will pay you two more dollars so
you will be up two dollars I you choose to play and the coin comes up tails
however I will keep your dollar so you will be down one dollar I on the
other hand you choose to pass no money will change hands either way
Would you take my bet
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8520181048630 983137983147983145 983150983143 P983137983155983139983137 983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
I bet you would Decision theory allows us to say precisely why the bet is
avorable or you Tere are two possible states or you to consider it could
be that the coin has come up heads and it could be that it has come up tailsAt the time you make your decision you donrsquot know which state is the actual
way things are but you do know that itrsquos one or the other Next there are
two possible strategies you can adopt play or pass Corresponding to the
our possible combinations o these states and strategies there are our pos-
sible situations that may resultmdashthese are the outcomes (983089) you play the
game and the coin is heads and so you win two dollars (1048626) you play the
game and the coin is tails so you lose one dollar (1048627) you pass and the coinis heads so you neither gain nor lose and (1048628) you pass and the coin is tails
so you neither gain nor lose In considering the question o what to do the
decision maker is invited to evaluate the outcomes Tat is the decision
maker attempts to estimate how valuable the various outcomes are In this
case the monetary value o outcome 983089 or you is two dollars or outcome 1048626
it is minus one dollar and or outcomes 1048627 and 1048628 zero In the case o most
actual decisions values other than money are at stake But starting with an
example using money is a good way to get an initial grasp o decision theory
Decision theorists commonly use a ldquodecision matrixrdquo to sum up inor-
mation relevant to a decision In our case we need a two-by-two matrix Te
columns correspond to the two possible states o the world and the rows
correspond to the two strategies you might take In the cells we write down
the valuations o the resulting outcomes
Heads Tails
PlayOutcome 1
$2Outcome 2
$-1
PassOutcome 3
$0Outcome 4
$0
Figure 983089983089
Should you play or pass I you only had one dollar to your name and
needed it to buy ood lest you starve then it might not be wise to play But
i yoursquore in ordinary circumstances and the loss o a dollar would be no great
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A Curious Of fer 852018852023
loss then itrsquos rational to play Intuitively this is because yoursquove got an equal
chance o gaining and losing and i you gain you gain twice what you would
lose i you lost More precisely itrsquos because the expected value o playing ishigher than the expected value o passing Te expected value o a strategy
or a given game or bet is the average value per game that would accrue to
you i you played the game an infinite number o times and adopted that
strategy every time Here the expected value o the strategy ldquoplayrdquo can be
calculated by multiplying the probability o each state by the value o its
corresponding outcome and adding up the products So the expected value
o ldquoplayrdquo is equal to
(frac12) times (1048626) + (frac12) times (minus983089) = 1048629983088
I you were offered this bet a large number o times and you chose ldquoplayrdquo
every time yoursquod win an average o about fify cents per game Te expected
value o passing by contrast is
(frac12) times (983088) + (frac12) times (983088) = 983088
One reason playing is a good bet here is that the expected value o playing
(fify cents) is more than the expected value o passing (zero cents) Now as
it turns out itrsquos not always rational to take the strategy that maximizes onersquos
expected value11 But maximizing expected value is ofen a good way to
make decisions that involve risk
For the sake o clarity Irsquove illustrated the concepts o a state a strategy an
outcome and a decision matrix by giving an example with precise monetary
values or outcomes and with definite probabilities assigned to the possiblestates in question In real lie we usually donrsquot have precise probabilities to
assign to the states and much (perhaps most) o what we care about canrsquot
be valued in monetary terms Even in such cases however there are prin-
ciples that can guide our decision making
One such principle is at play when we say things like ldquoIrsquoll do X because it
canrsquot hurt and it might helprdquo or ldquoYou should do Y because therersquos nothing to
lose and maybe a lot to gainrdquo Suppose yoursquove borrowed your riendrsquos bicycleand have cycled to a store on the edge o town You put the lock around the
bike and a parking sign and as yoursquore lifing the key to lock up the bike it
occurs to you that this part o town is very sae and therersquos hardly any chance
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the bike will be stolen Besides when yoursquore inside the bike will be in your
view through the store window As you finish thinking this yoursquove also just
put the key into the lock So should you lock up the bike You donrsquot have anyprecise knowledge about the probability o thef in the circumstances and
while you could estimate the value o the bike therersquos no obvious way to
calculate the disvalue your riend would experience i your negligence got his
bike stolen Despite your lack o knowledge on those points though itrsquos clear
enough what you should do all you have to do to lock the bike is turn your
wrist A decision theorist could map out your situation like this
A thief will happen by A thief wont happen by
Lock Nothing bad happens Nothing bad happens
Dontlock
Bike stolen (probably) Nothing bad happens
Figure 983089 983090
I a motivated capable thie is in act coming along the strategy o locking
will result in a ar better outcome while i such a thie wonrsquot happen by locking
is no worse than unlocking (by the time o your decision itrsquos just so easy to
lock that therersquos no cost to locking) In the language o game theory we say
that the strategy o locking ldquoweakly dominatesrdquo the strategy o not locking
One strategy weakly dominates another i (and only i) there is at least one
possible state o the world on which the first strategy delivers a better outcome
than the second and there are no possible states o the world on which the
first strategy delivers a worse outcome than second In other words depending
on how things turn out adopting a weakly dominant strategy will either end
up yielding a better result than adopting the other strategy would have or it
will end up yielding a result that is just as good as what yoursquod have gotten with
the other strategy In a situation o uncertainty when we donrsquot know which o
several possible states o the world is the true one it is always better to adopt
a weakly dominant strategy instead o the strategy it dominates
In case yoursquore wondering one strategy strongly dominates another
strategy i and only i it delivers a better outcome on every possible state o
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A Curious Of fer 8520181048633
the world O course strongly dominant strategies are even more preerable
than weakly dominant strategies when you can get them
Decision theorists have other principles to help guide us in uncertaintyBut itrsquos worth noting that in some cases we donrsquot need a general principle
Sometimes we can just see what the smart thing to do is especially i wersquove
laid out the inormation in a decision matrix For example suppose again
that a trusted third party flips a coin or us but doesnrsquot say whether it lands
heads or tails Now imagine that I credibly make you this offer i you choose
to play and itrsquos heads then Irsquoll give you a million dollars while yoursquoll owe
me one dollar i itrsquos tails and yoursquove chosen to play I you choose to pass nomoney is exchanged either way We could represent this with the matrix
Heads Tails
PlayOutcome 1
$1000000Outcome 2
$-1
PassOutcome 3
$0Outcome 4
$0
Figure 983089 983091
Here we canrsquot say that playing weakly dominates passing because i the
coin is tails you do slightly better by passing But itrsquos one dollar wersquore talking
about Strictly speaking playing is not a weakly dominant strategy here but
itrsquos close enough Te payoff is so much greater i the coin is heads and the
loss is so little i itrsquos tails that itrsquos clearly rational to play Perhaps we couldstate a precise universally valid principle that would apply in this case and
tell us what to do but we donrsquot really need one we can just see what the
smart move is Tis insight will prove helpul later on
With these preliminaries behind us we can now turn to the wager A
consideration o this argument will allow us to see that Christian com-
mitment is recommended by reason so long as the available evidence makes
it at least as likely as not that the central claims o Christianity are true
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InterVarsity Press
PO Box 983089983092983088983088 Downers Grove IL 983094983088983093983089983093-983089983092983090983094
ivpresscom
emailivpresscom
copy983090983088983089983094 by Michael Rota
All rights reserved No part of this book may be reproduced in any form without written permission from
InterVarsity Press
InterVarsity Pressreg is the book-publishing division of InterVarsity Christian FellowshipUSAreg a movement of
students and faculty active on campus at hundreds of universities colleges and schools of nursing in the United
States of America and a member movement of the International Fellowship of Evangelical Students For
information about local and regional activities visit intervarsityorg
Scripture quotations unless otherwise noted are from the New Revised Standard Version of the Bible copyright
983089983097983096983097 by the Division of Christian Education of the National Council of the Churches of Christ in the USA Used by
permission All rights reservedCover design David Fassett
Interior design Beth McGill
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(Photo by H Armstrong RobertsClassicStockGetty Images)
ISBN 983097983095983096-983088-983096983091983088983096-983093983089983091983094-983090 (print)
ISBN 983097983095983096-983088-983096983091983088983096-983097983097983097983097-983097 (digital)
Printed in the United States of America
As a member of the Green Press Initiative InterVarsity Press is committed to protecting
the environment and to the responsible use of natural resources o learn more visit greenpressinitiativeorg
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Names Rota Michael 983089983097983095983093- author
itle aking Pascalrsquos wager faith evidence and the abundant life
Michael Rota
Description Downers Grove InterVarsity Press 983090983088983089983094 | Includes
bibliographical references and index
Identifiers LCCN 983090983088983089983094983088983088983095983097983090983090 (print) | LCCN 983090983088983089983094983088983089983088983094983094983090 (ebook) | ISBN
983097983095983096983088983096983091983088983096983093983089983091983094983090 (pbk alk paper) | ISBN 983097983095983096983088983096983091983088983096983097983097983097983097983097 (eBook)
Subjects LCSH Faith and reason--Christianity | Apologetics | Pascal
Blaise 983089983094983090983091-983089983094983094983090 Pensacircees | Philosophical theology
Classification LCC B983093983088 R983094983092983093 983090983088983089983094 (print) | LCC B983093983088 (ebook) | DDC 983090983091983097--dc983090983091
LC record available at httplccnlocgov983090983088983089983094983088983088983095983097983090983090
P 983090983091 983090983090 983090983089 983090983088 983089983097 983089983096 983089983095 983089983094 983089983093 983089983092 983089983091 983089983090 983089983089 983089983088 983097 983096 983095 983094 983093 983092 983091 983090 983089
Y 983091983093 983091983092 983091983091 983091983090 983091983089 983091983088 983090983097 983090983096 983090983095 983090983094 983090983093 983090983092 983090983091 983090983090 983090983089 983090983088 983089983097 983089983096 983089983095 983089983094
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CONTENTS
Acknowledgments 983097
Introduction 10486251048625
P983137983154983156 983089 U983150983139983141983154983156983137983145983150983156983161 983137983150983140 C983151983149983149983145983156983149983141983150983156
1048625 A Curious Oer 9830901048625
983090 Pascalrsquos Wager he Basic Argument 9830911048624
983091 Objections to the Wager Moral Reservations and
the Cost o Commitment 983093983090
983092 More Objections to the Wager Other Religions
and Christianity 983094983093
P983137983154983156 983090 E983158983145983140983141983150983139983141
983093 Where Did Physical hings Come From 983096983091
983094 Why Is the Universe Just Right or Lie 983097983097
983095 A Primer on Probability 10486251048625983091
983096 God and the Multiverse 1048625983090983093
983097 he Beauty and Existential Resonance o Christianity 1048625983091983093
10486251048624 Counterevidence Divine Hiddenness and Evil 1048625983092983091
10486251048625 Historical Evidence or Christianity he Resurrection 1048625983093983092
1048625983090 Miracle or Myth 1048625983094983093
P983137983154983156 983091 S983137983161983145983150983143 Y983141983155 983156983151 G983151983140
1048625983091 Dietrich Bonhoeer 104862598309610486251048625983092 Jean Vanier 1048625983097983093
1048625983093 Immaculeacutee Ilibagiza 98309010486251048625
Conclusion aking the Wager 9830909830901048625
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Notes 983090983090983091
Author Index 983090983092983093
Subject Index 983090983092983095
Scripture Index 983090983092983097
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INTRODUCTION
I983155 983145983156 983154983137983156983145983151983150983137983148 983156983151 983138983141983148983145983141983158983141 983145983150 G983151983140983103 Is it reasonable to commit
onesel to Godmdashto live a deeply religious lie And how much certainty does
one need beore the time has come to decide I yoursquove pondered these ques-
tions beore this book is or you
I was raised Catholic although religion was not a major part o our amily
lie We prayed beore meals and went to church on most Sundays but there
was little discussion o religious matters and no regular personal prayer atleast not on my part Sometime in my early teens I began to wonder about
the truth o the religion I had been born into Does God really exist I he
does then relationship with God is the most important part o human lie
But i he doesnrsquot then the religious person is enmeshed in a massive de-
ception ldquoWe believe in one God the Father the Almighty rdquo I ound
mysel saying at Mass But did I really mean it I wasnrsquot sure and the ear
that I was being dishonest concerned meI continued to wonder about God and the rationality o Christianity
throughout high school in college and in graduate school Now as a pro-
essor o philosophy itrsquos my job to think about these topics every day My
research ocuses on the rationality o religious belie and I wrestle with ar-
guments or and against God with classes ull o students rom every point
o view almost every semester I have become convinced that it is rational
to live a deeply religious Christian lie Indeed it may be irrational not to
When contemplating the choice to commit to living a Christian lie one
might suppose that one should rerain rom making a commitment in the
absence o rock-solid evidence or the truth o Christianity Reflection on
personal relationships suggests otherwise In Te Will to Believe William
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852017852018 983137983147983145 983150983143 P983137983155983139983137 983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
James asks us to consider a man who hesitates ldquoindefinitely to ask a certain
woman to marry him because he [is] not perectly sure that she would
prove [to be] an angel afer he brought her home Would he not cut himseloff rom that particular angel-possibility as decisively as i he went and
married some one elserdquo1 In the area o romantic love it can be reasonable
to invest deeply in a relationship and eventually make a lielong com-
mitment to the beloved despite the absence o airtight evidence that the
marriage will be a happy one Because there is so much at stake it can be
reasonable to make a commitment to a personal relationship even when
absolute certainty proves elusive Applying this to the question o Godeven i the evidence or God lef some room or doubt considerations
about the possible value o a relationship with God might avor the decision
to make a religious commitment
Seventeenth-century French mathematician and theologian Blaise Pascal
gave an argument that expands on this insight Pascalrsquos wager as the ar-
gument has come to be known addresses those who arenrsquot sure whether
Christianity is true but think that it might be true Te argument can besummed up in a single sentence It is rational to seek a relationship with God
and live a deeply Christian lie because there is very much to gain and rela-
tively little to lose
As the wager is usually presented whatrsquos to gain is eternal happiness or
the wagerer An alternative and more powerul version o the argument
however ocuses not just on sel-interest but also on goods that go beyond
sel-interest I one commits to God and God does in act exist one brings
joy to God and one is better able to help others attain union with God And
i Jesus really is who he claimed to be we may even have a moral duty to
commit to living a Christian lie I Christianity is true we have a duty to
love God and have been called by God himsel who has given us everything
good that we have to live a deeply religious lie More than just sel-interest
can motivate one to take the wager
On the other hand i Christianity is alse the committed Christian has
still lived a meaningul lie has pursued moral excellence and has enjoyed
the many empirically well-attested benefits o belonging to a religious com-
munity Much to gain relatively little to lose
In part one o this book (chapters one through our) Irsquoll present an updated
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Introduction 852017852019
version o Pascalrsquos wager strengthened by cutting-edge research rom psy-
chologists sociologists and philosophers Afer introducing and laying out
the basic argument in chapters one and two I turn to objections to the wagerin chapters three and our Tese include the objections that committing to
God on the basis o pragmatic considerations is immoral that the cost o
religious commitment is too high that the existence o religions other than
Christianity nullifies the argument and that Christian doctrine itsel casts
doubt on the wager When addressing this last issue I discuss grace ree will
and predestination
In part two (chapters five through twelve) Irsquoll take a careul look at argu-ments or the existence o God and the truth o Christianity showing howmdash
once we no longer demand certaintymdashthe available evidence is sufficient to
make serious Christian commitment entirely reasonable ogether parts
one and two present the bookrsquos main argument which can be summarized
as ollows
I Christianity has at least a 1048629983088 percent chance o being true then it is rational
to commit to living a Christian lie (the conclusion o part one)
Christianity does have at least a 1048629983088 percent chance o being true (the con-
clusion o part two)
Tus it is rational to commit to living a Christian lie
Te argument o part two proceeds in two stages First I present evidence
or theism (the view that there is a God) second I present evidence or the
more specific view o Christian theism I begin by asking the question o whyphysical reality exists at all Chapter five argues that there is at least one nec-
essarily existing being which explains the existence o contingent beings
(Contingent beings are things that reality didnrsquot have to include like all the
physical objects we see around us) Chapters six through eight then provide
an argument that the cause o physical reality is an intelligent being In the
last several decades mainstream physicists and astronomers have come to
realize that the lie-permitting character o our universe is balanced on a
kniersquos edge i several eatures had been ever-so-slightly different rom what
they in act are then stable sel-reproducing lie would not have been able
to arise Chapter six introduces some o the scientific evidence or this con-
clusion and gives a preliminary statement o what has come to be known as
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852017852020 983137983147983145 983150983143 P983137983155983139983137 983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
the fine-tuning argument Tis argument has been summarized or non-
specialists in several places but not always with enough rigor and back-
ground or the strength o the case to be ully displayed In chapter seven Iexplain the parts o probability theory required to appreciate the power o
the evidence that our universe is the product o an intelligence Chapter eight
contains an original reply to the strongest alternative to design the multi-
verse hypothesis (Tis is the hypothesis that our universe is just one o a vast
number o universes most o which are not lie permitting) aken together
chapters five through eight provide evidence or God drawing on the best
recent research but written so as to be accessible to the general readerIn chapter nine I turn to specifically Christian doctrines suggesting that
the beauty and existential resonance o Christianity are clues to its truth
Chapter ten concerns the two most powerul arguments against theism the
argument rom divine hiddenness and the argument rom evil (As argu-
ments against all orms o theism they are arguments against Christian
theism as well) Tese topics deserve not a single chapter but whole books
o their own And they have them So in chapter ten I summarize what I taketo be the strongest replies to the arguments rom hiddenness and evil o-
cusing on the recent work o Peter van Inwagen and Eleonore Stump Finally
in chapters eleven and twelve I turn to arguments or the resurrection o
Jesus Tis is just one o many Christian doctrines o course but logically
speaking it holds a special place I one has reason to believe that Jesus rose
rom the dead then one has reason to believe that Jesusrsquo teachings have
the divine stamp o approval and are thereore true So an argument or the
resurrection is an argument or the truth o Christianity (or at least the
larger part o one) In this pair o chapters I draw on the most recent work
on the issue by historians theologians and philosophers While I think that
the evidence o part two is by itsel sufficient to justiy belie in Christianity
agreement on this point is not required or the main argument o the book
to succeed For given the argument o part one all that is required or a
demonstration o the rationality o Christian commitment is that the evi-
dence render Christianity at least as likely as not
Itrsquos sometimes said that the longest distance in the world is the distance
rom the head to the heart And so in part three Irsquoll try to illustrate how a
lie o Christian commitment is not just reasonable but worth desiring as
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Introduction 852017852021
wellmdashsatisying both the head and the heart o do this Irsquoll tell the stories
o three exemplary individuals who took Jesus up on his invitation to ollow
him Te lives o these individuals were enriched and in turn enrichedcountless others in ways all o us would want to be true or our own lives
Dietrich Bonhoeffer Jean Vanier and Immaculeacutee Ilibagiza show how heroic
noble and beautiul a Christian lie can be Jesus said ldquoI came that they may
have lie and have it abundantlyrdquo (Jn 983089983088983089983088) Te abundance that so ofen
characterizes a devout Christian lie is not a matter o external goods or
material wealth but is internal and spiritual flowing rom a close personal
relationship with God Lie ocused on God offers comort inspiration anda peace that the vicissitudes o ortune need never take away
Te landscape o academic philosophy has changed significantly in the
last orty or fify years In the 983089983088s and rsquo1048631983088s it was taken or granted in many
philosophical circles that traditional Christian belie is unjustified and ir-
rational Tanks to the work o philosophers such as Alvin Plantinga
Eleonore Stump Peter van Inwagen and Richard Swinburne things have
changed
2
Recent decades have been a time o enormous productivity orphilosophers deending the rationality o Christian aith answering objec-
tions to Christian doctrines improving traditional arguments or the exis-
tence o God and ormulating new ones In the pages that ollow Irsquoll explore
some o the most important results o this body o work Irsquove written this
book though without presupposing that the reader has had ormal training
in philosophy or theology My hope is that it will be useul or anyone who
is interested in the evidence or God or the evidence or Christianity more
particularly I also hope that college students in philosophy and theology
courses will find the material worthwhile
Since this book is about evidence and reasons or religious belie itrsquos
worth addressing at the outset the question o why people believe what they
do on religious issues Isnrsquot religion a matter o the heart Does anyone really
believe on the basis o logic or argument Many committed Christians be-
lieve in God not primarily because o argument but because o experiencemdash
they have an intuitive sense o Godrsquos presence Perhaps not all the time but
certainly much o the time it just seems that God is there aware o what we
do and think Tis is how it is in my own case But what i you donrsquot happen
to have such an experience yoursel Or what i you have it occasionally but
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it is fleeting and open to serious doubt In those cases it makes good sense
to spend some time examining arguments and publicly available evidence
relating to questions about God and religion According to Christianityaith is a gif But or the person who does not have aith a careul look at
arguments or (and against) Christianity is a natural and reasonable step to
take Examination o evidence can also be worthwhile or the person who
does have aith but has doubts too In what ollows I give an extended
presentation o evidence or the truth o Christianity and a rigorous ar-
gument or the reasonableness o Christian commitment
While this book will ocus on the rational case or Christianity itrsquos im-portant to acknowledge that there are many actors involved in a decision
to commit to a Christian way o lie actors that go beyond impersonal
philosophical reasoning Onersquos upbringing onersquos experiences with indi-
vidual Christians the attitudes and views o onersquos closest riends and amily
onersquos emotional lie onersquos deep-seated hopes and ears and onersquos own par-
ticular way o viewing the worldmdashall o these come into play when one
encounters the message o Jesus I believe that the philosophical argumen-tation contained in this book will be helpul to many people but philo-
sophical argumentation is only one part o a larger picture When it comes
to religion logic may or may not be where one starts but itrsquos certainly not
where one should end Living a Christian lie is an act o the whole personmdash
mind and heart body and soul Still precisely because a Christian lie in-
volves the whole person there is a place or the mind and thus or reason
evidence and logic
Finally a ew words are called or regarding a concept that will play a
key role in what ollows probability Everyone has many belies but some
o those belies are held more confidently than others For example I be-
lieve that Irsquoll still be alive twenty-our hours rom now Irsquom not absolutely
certain I will be but nonetheless I do believe it I also believe Irsquoll be alive
twenty-our days rom now But Irsquom less confident in this belie than in my
belie about being alive twenty-our hours rom now How about twenty-
our years rom now In my case I wouldnrsquot say that I believe Irsquoll be alive
twenty-our years rom now I also donrsquot believe I wonrsquot be alive twenty-
our years rom nowmdashtherersquos just not enough inormation to orm a belie
one way or the other
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Introduction 852017852023
Philosophers sometimes use the language o ldquolevels o confidencerdquo when
discussing belies and probability Levels o confidence come in a scale rom
zero to one (or 983088 percent to 983089983088983088 percent) o be absolutely certain o some-thing (eg 983089 + 983089 = 1048626) is to assign it a level o confidence o 983089 o be absolutely
certain a claim is alse (eg 983089 + 983089 = 9830891048631) is to assign it a level o confidence o
983088 In such a situation one could say that the probability o the claim is 983088
percent Terersquos just no chance that yoursquove gotten conused and ldquo983089 + 983089 = 9830891048631rdquo
is really true What about a proposition like ldquothis normal penny will come
up heads when I flip itrdquo Here itrsquos reasonable to assign equal levels o confi-
dence both to this claim and to the claim that the penny will come up tailsSo wersquod assign both claims a level o confidence o 9830881048629 and we could say that
the chance the coin will be heads is 1048629983088 percent How confident am I that this
six-sided die will show either a 983089 or a 1048626 when I roll it 104862710486271048627 percent You get
the idea
Te word probability will come up ofen in this book Irsquoll sometimes also
talk about how likely something is or what the chance is that such-and-such
is true Unless otherwise noted these are all just different ways to talk aboutthe same thing what philosophers call epistemic probability Roughly the
epistemic probability o a proposition (that is a statement or a claim) is the
level o confidence itrsquos reasonable to assign to that proposition3
Probability evidence moral heroism commitment all o these actors
will enter into our discussion o the reasonableness o Christian theism But
enough with introductory matters On to deeper waters
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- Part One -
UNCERTAINTY
and
COMMITMENT
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- 983089 -
A CURIOUS OFFER
I983149983137983143983145983150983141 983156983144983137983156 983151983150983141 983140983137983161 you receive a phone call rom a abulously
wealthy individualmdashan eccentric billionaire known or spending his money
in odd and trivial ways He makes you a curious offer You are to determine
the religion you think most likely to be true and then practice that religion
devoutly attend religious services read the sacred scriptures o that religion
pray as that religion prescribes and live out the religionrsquos moral teachings
And he asks you to do this or the rest o your lie His part o the bargainwill be to place 983076983089983088 billion in an escrow account to be deliverable on your
death to whatever persons or causes you have named You can leave the
money to your amily or to a charitable organization or to scientific re-
search or any combination o the above whatever you think best I you
choose not to enter into the bargain he adds he will be using the money to
hire tens o thousands o artists to paint millions and millions o mediocre
oil paintings o his pet dog ScoutO course i this actually happened to you yoursquod be a mite skeptical But
imagine that afer due diligence you became convinced that this was no joke
And the billionaire clarified that you did not have to lie or otherwise mis-
represent yoursel in order to ulfill your side o the bargain I or example
you chose Christianity as the religion you thought most likely to be true you
would not have to recite the creed during the liturgy i you did not believe
it And your prayers could be conditional as in ldquoI yoursquore there God thank
you or this and please help me with thatrdquo An odd offer to be sure but also
in all probability the only chance yoursquoll ever have to direct 983076983089983088 billion o
wealth to persons or causes you care about So what would you do Would
you accept the offer
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Perhaps the act that the payoff is mere monetary gain gives you pause
Good or you to trade onersquos religious devotion or money would be base But
remember that you can name whatever beneficiary yoursquod like includingcharitable organizations that work with the poorest o the poor You can
trade your religious devotion or ood or the starving or education or
impoverished children in the developing world On board yet Say that the
billionaire adds that he doesnrsquot want to make this offer i you already happen
to be certain or almost certain that God does not exist His offer is only or
people who can say o some particular religion that there is at least a decent
chance that it is trueNow consider an alternative scenario Suppose that rom the get-go the
billionaire had offered you a different bargain the payoff is not a guaranteed
983076983089983088 billion but a 1048629983088 percent shot at 983076983089983088983088 billion Tat is suppose the bil-
lionairersquos side o the bargain is to put 983076983089983088983088 billion in an escrow account Ten
afer your death a air coin will be flipped I it comes up heads the entire
983076983089983088983088 billion will be given to your named beneficiary or beneficiaries I tails
then wersquoll have a lot o pictures o Scout Would you accept this offerHold on to that thought
Te overarching question o this book is the question o whether there is
good reason to make a serious commitment to living a Christian lie In part
two wersquoll take a tour o the evidence or Christianity But beore that the
question to ask first is ldquoHow much evidence would be required to make a
Christian commitment reasonablerdquo As Irsquoll try to show here in part one a
serious Christian commitment is recommended by reason even i there is
as little as a 1048629983088 percent chance that Christianity is true In other words i
you are willing to grant that Christianity is at least as likely as not then it is
rational or you to commit to living a devout Christian lie Indeed i yoursquore
in ordinary circumstances it is irrational or you not to1
P983137983155983139983137983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
Te argument Irsquoll give or this conclusion has its roots in the reflections o
seventeenth-century polymath Blaise Pascal Pascal made important contri-
butions in mathematics probability theory and physics His work on fluid
mechanics was instrumental in the later invention o the hydraulic press
and he himsel designed and built one o the first mechanical calculating
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A Curious Of fer 852018852019
machines an early precursor to the digital computer (Interestingly the
principles used in the machine are still employed in many automobile
odometers) Pascal was an inventor an intellectual and a scientist He wasalso a deeply religious man At the age o thirty-one he had a powerul mys-
tical experience o God He described the experience in a note and stitched
the note into his coat keeping it close to him He evidently transerred the
paper note (together with a cleaner copy he put down on parchment) rom
coat to coat or the rest o his liemdasha servant ound them afer his death
Pascal suffered rom ill health dying at only thirty-nine In his final years
he was drafing a work o apologetics Te disorganized ragments that werehis notes or the project were published posthumously and quickly became
a classic Pascalrsquos Pensees (French or ldquothoughtsrdquo)2 In one o those ragments
Pascal gives an argument not or the theoretical conclusion that God exists
but or the practical conclusion that one should live a devout Christian lie
Te argument is addressed to those who arenrsquot sure whether Christianity is
true or alse and has come to be known as Pascalrsquos wager o be precise the
ragment contains the seeds o our different arguments in support o reli-gious commitment3 Te strongest version comes down to this It is rational
to seek a relationship with God and live a deeply Christian lie because there
is very much to gain and relatively little to lose In chapter two Irsquoll present a
strengthened and expanded version o this argument I Christianity is
indeed true then by committing to live a Christian lie one brings great joy
to God and all others in heaven raises the chance that one will be with God
orever raises the chance that one will help others attain union with God
expresses gratitude to God and becomes more aware o Godrsquos love and more
receptive to his help in the course o onersquos earthly lie On the other hand i
Christianity is alse the person who commits his or her lie to Jesusrsquo teachings
has still lived a worthwhile lie striving or moral excellence and experi-
encing the benefits o religious community (benefits that contemporary
sociological research reveals to be significant)
Pascalrsquos pragmatic argument in support o religious commitment has had
its share o critics Tus the amous English philosopher G E Moore ldquo[Con-
cerning Pascalrsquos claim that] in our state o doubt we should decide or that
belie which promises the greater reward I have nothing to say o it except
that it seems to me absolutely wickedrdquo4 Voltaire thought the wager was
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ldquosomewhat indecent and childish Te idea o gaming o losing or winning
is quite unsuitable to the dignity o the subjectrdquo5 In much the same vein an
earlier French critic had complained ldquoI lose patience listening to youtreating the highest o all matters and resting the most important truth in
the world the source o all truths on an idea so base and puerile on a com-
parison with a game o heads and tails more productive o mirth than per-
suasionrdquo6 More recently Christopher Hitchens sees Pascalrsquos theology as ldquonot
ar short o sordidrdquo7 remarking that ldquoPascal reminds me o the hypocrites
and rauds who abound in almudic Jewish rationalization Donrsquot do any
work on the Sabbath yoursel but pay someone else to do it You obeyed theletter o the law whorsquos countingrdquo8
Are these objections air Mathematician James Franklin suggests that
Pascalrsquos actual view is ofen replaced with an unflattering caricature o the
wager Franklin contrasts these two views
What Pascal said You have to choose whether to accept religion Tink o it
as a coin toss where you donrsquot know the outcome In this case i you losemdash
therersquos no Godmdashyou have not lost much But i you win there is an infinitepayoff So you should go to Mass and pray or aith [Franklinrsquos paraphrase]
Pascal caricatured Being base and greedy we want lots o goodies in this
lie and i possible the next So we are prepared to give up some pleasures
now on the off chance o a lot more later i our eye to the main chance makes
it look worth our while Since the loot on offer is infinite even a small chance
o raking it in makes it worth a try to grovel to any deity that might do what
we want9
Franklin makes a good point Pascalrsquos argument is ofen interpreted in
the worst possible light Still there are legitimate objections to consider
even when Pascalrsquos reasoning is interpreted airly It may be that it is im-
moral to allow any considerations about cost and benefit to affect what we
believe Perhaps a respect or truth requires that our belies be determined
by evidence and evidence alone Second we must consider whether the
costs o committing to God are simply too high And perhaps the most
common criticism is that Pascal illicitly assumed there were only two op-
tions to consider atheism and (Catholic) Christianity Te many gods ob-
jection as itrsquos ofen called contends that the multitude o possibly true reli-
gions makes trouble or Pascal
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A Curious Of fer 852018852021
In chapters three and our Irsquoll elaborate on these and additional objec-
tions and respond to them But first we need to lay the basic argument
out on the table in more detail and with greater precision In order togive the strongest argument possible Irsquoll set aside the analysis o Pascalrsquos
text and instead develop a Pascalian argument in my own way10 Just or
the sake o having a handy title Irsquoll reer to my argument as ldquothe wagerrdquo
or even ldquoPascalrsquos wagerrdquo but this title should be taken merely as a re-
erence to its original inspiration not as a claim that I am providing a
verbatim reproduction o Pascalrsquos thought Indeed the wager Irsquoll present
takes advantage o cutting-edge work in philosophy and psychology andrecent sociological data unavailable to Pascal and it is thereore able to
greatly improve on his rather sketchy note Since itrsquos impossible to explain
the wager clearly without using some concepts rom decision theory
thatrsquos where wersquoll begin
D983141983139983145983155983145983151983150 T983144983141983151983154983161
Decision theory is about how to make good decisions in circumstances orisk or uncertainty Tree concepts are especially important states strat-
egies and outcomes A state is a possible way things might be (it will rain
today or it wonrsquot rain today) a strategy is a possible action the decider
might take (bring my umbrella or leave it at home) An outcome is a situ-
ation that results when a given strategy is taken and a certain state is actual
(eg the situation o being stuck in the rain without an umbrella) In order
to assess the suitability o the various available strategies the decision
maker attempts to orm a judgment about how valuable the various out-
comes are
For example suppose I offer you a bet I ask a trusted third party to flip
a air coin but not to tell us whether it lands heads or tails Ten I ask you
to decide either to play (that is participate in the bet) or pass I you choose
to play it will cost you one dollar but i you play and the coin has come up
heads you will get your dollar back and I will pay you two more dollars so
you will be up two dollars I you choose to play and the coin comes up tails
however I will keep your dollar so you will be down one dollar I on the
other hand you choose to pass no money will change hands either way
Would you take my bet
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I bet you would Decision theory allows us to say precisely why the bet is
avorable or you Tere are two possible states or you to consider it could
be that the coin has come up heads and it could be that it has come up tailsAt the time you make your decision you donrsquot know which state is the actual
way things are but you do know that itrsquos one or the other Next there are
two possible strategies you can adopt play or pass Corresponding to the
our possible combinations o these states and strategies there are our pos-
sible situations that may resultmdashthese are the outcomes (983089) you play the
game and the coin is heads and so you win two dollars (1048626) you play the
game and the coin is tails so you lose one dollar (1048627) you pass and the coinis heads so you neither gain nor lose and (1048628) you pass and the coin is tails
so you neither gain nor lose In considering the question o what to do the
decision maker is invited to evaluate the outcomes Tat is the decision
maker attempts to estimate how valuable the various outcomes are In this
case the monetary value o outcome 983089 or you is two dollars or outcome 1048626
it is minus one dollar and or outcomes 1048627 and 1048628 zero In the case o most
actual decisions values other than money are at stake But starting with an
example using money is a good way to get an initial grasp o decision theory
Decision theorists commonly use a ldquodecision matrixrdquo to sum up inor-
mation relevant to a decision In our case we need a two-by-two matrix Te
columns correspond to the two possible states o the world and the rows
correspond to the two strategies you might take In the cells we write down
the valuations o the resulting outcomes
Heads Tails
PlayOutcome 1
$2Outcome 2
$-1
PassOutcome 3
$0Outcome 4
$0
Figure 983089983089
Should you play or pass I you only had one dollar to your name and
needed it to buy ood lest you starve then it might not be wise to play But
i yoursquore in ordinary circumstances and the loss o a dollar would be no great
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A Curious Of fer 852018852023
loss then itrsquos rational to play Intuitively this is because yoursquove got an equal
chance o gaining and losing and i you gain you gain twice what you would
lose i you lost More precisely itrsquos because the expected value o playing ishigher than the expected value o passing Te expected value o a strategy
or a given game or bet is the average value per game that would accrue to
you i you played the game an infinite number o times and adopted that
strategy every time Here the expected value o the strategy ldquoplayrdquo can be
calculated by multiplying the probability o each state by the value o its
corresponding outcome and adding up the products So the expected value
o ldquoplayrdquo is equal to
(frac12) times (1048626) + (frac12) times (minus983089) = 1048629983088
I you were offered this bet a large number o times and you chose ldquoplayrdquo
every time yoursquod win an average o about fify cents per game Te expected
value o passing by contrast is
(frac12) times (983088) + (frac12) times (983088) = 983088
One reason playing is a good bet here is that the expected value o playing
(fify cents) is more than the expected value o passing (zero cents) Now as
it turns out itrsquos not always rational to take the strategy that maximizes onersquos
expected value11 But maximizing expected value is ofen a good way to
make decisions that involve risk
For the sake o clarity Irsquove illustrated the concepts o a state a strategy an
outcome and a decision matrix by giving an example with precise monetary
values or outcomes and with definite probabilities assigned to the possiblestates in question In real lie we usually donrsquot have precise probabilities to
assign to the states and much (perhaps most) o what we care about canrsquot
be valued in monetary terms Even in such cases however there are prin-
ciples that can guide our decision making
One such principle is at play when we say things like ldquoIrsquoll do X because it
canrsquot hurt and it might helprdquo or ldquoYou should do Y because therersquos nothing to
lose and maybe a lot to gainrdquo Suppose yoursquove borrowed your riendrsquos bicycleand have cycled to a store on the edge o town You put the lock around the
bike and a parking sign and as yoursquore lifing the key to lock up the bike it
occurs to you that this part o town is very sae and therersquos hardly any chance
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the bike will be stolen Besides when yoursquore inside the bike will be in your
view through the store window As you finish thinking this yoursquove also just
put the key into the lock So should you lock up the bike You donrsquot have anyprecise knowledge about the probability o thef in the circumstances and
while you could estimate the value o the bike therersquos no obvious way to
calculate the disvalue your riend would experience i your negligence got his
bike stolen Despite your lack o knowledge on those points though itrsquos clear
enough what you should do all you have to do to lock the bike is turn your
wrist A decision theorist could map out your situation like this
A thief will happen by A thief wont happen by
Lock Nothing bad happens Nothing bad happens
Dontlock
Bike stolen (probably) Nothing bad happens
Figure 983089 983090
I a motivated capable thie is in act coming along the strategy o locking
will result in a ar better outcome while i such a thie wonrsquot happen by locking
is no worse than unlocking (by the time o your decision itrsquos just so easy to
lock that therersquos no cost to locking) In the language o game theory we say
that the strategy o locking ldquoweakly dominatesrdquo the strategy o not locking
One strategy weakly dominates another i (and only i) there is at least one
possible state o the world on which the first strategy delivers a better outcome
than the second and there are no possible states o the world on which the
first strategy delivers a worse outcome than second In other words depending
on how things turn out adopting a weakly dominant strategy will either end
up yielding a better result than adopting the other strategy would have or it
will end up yielding a result that is just as good as what yoursquod have gotten with
the other strategy In a situation o uncertainty when we donrsquot know which o
several possible states o the world is the true one it is always better to adopt
a weakly dominant strategy instead o the strategy it dominates
In case yoursquore wondering one strategy strongly dominates another
strategy i and only i it delivers a better outcome on every possible state o
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A Curious Of fer 8520181048633
the world O course strongly dominant strategies are even more preerable
than weakly dominant strategies when you can get them
Decision theorists have other principles to help guide us in uncertaintyBut itrsquos worth noting that in some cases we donrsquot need a general principle
Sometimes we can just see what the smart thing to do is especially i wersquove
laid out the inormation in a decision matrix For example suppose again
that a trusted third party flips a coin or us but doesnrsquot say whether it lands
heads or tails Now imagine that I credibly make you this offer i you choose
to play and itrsquos heads then Irsquoll give you a million dollars while yoursquoll owe
me one dollar i itrsquos tails and yoursquove chosen to play I you choose to pass nomoney is exchanged either way We could represent this with the matrix
Heads Tails
PlayOutcome 1
$1000000Outcome 2
$-1
PassOutcome 3
$0Outcome 4
$0
Figure 983089 983091
Here we canrsquot say that playing weakly dominates passing because i the
coin is tails you do slightly better by passing But itrsquos one dollar wersquore talking
about Strictly speaking playing is not a weakly dominant strategy here but
itrsquos close enough Te payoff is so much greater i the coin is heads and the
loss is so little i itrsquos tails that itrsquos clearly rational to play Perhaps we couldstate a precise universally valid principle that would apply in this case and
tell us what to do but we donrsquot really need one we can just see what the
smart move is Tis insight will prove helpul later on
With these preliminaries behind us we can now turn to the wager A
consideration o this argument will allow us to see that Christian com-
mitment is recommended by reason so long as the available evidence makes
it at least as likely as not that the central claims o Christianity are true
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CONTENTS
Acknowledgments 983097
Introduction 10486251048625
P983137983154983156 983089 U983150983139983141983154983156983137983145983150983156983161 983137983150983140 C983151983149983149983145983156983149983141983150983156
1048625 A Curious Oer 9830901048625
983090 Pascalrsquos Wager he Basic Argument 9830911048624
983091 Objections to the Wager Moral Reservations and
the Cost o Commitment 983093983090
983092 More Objections to the Wager Other Religions
and Christianity 983094983093
P983137983154983156 983090 E983158983145983140983141983150983139983141
983093 Where Did Physical hings Come From 983096983091
983094 Why Is the Universe Just Right or Lie 983097983097
983095 A Primer on Probability 10486251048625983091
983096 God and the Multiverse 1048625983090983093
983097 he Beauty and Existential Resonance o Christianity 1048625983091983093
10486251048624 Counterevidence Divine Hiddenness and Evil 1048625983092983091
10486251048625 Historical Evidence or Christianity he Resurrection 1048625983093983092
1048625983090 Miracle or Myth 1048625983094983093
P983137983154983156 983091 S983137983161983145983150983143 Y983141983155 983156983151 G983151983140
1048625983091 Dietrich Bonhoeer 104862598309610486251048625983092 Jean Vanier 1048625983097983093
1048625983093 Immaculeacutee Ilibagiza 98309010486251048625
Conclusion aking the Wager 9830909830901048625
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Notes 983090983090983091
Author Index 983090983092983093
Subject Index 983090983092983095
Scripture Index 983090983092983097
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INTRODUCTION
I983155 983145983156 983154983137983156983145983151983150983137983148 983156983151 983138983141983148983145983141983158983141 983145983150 G983151983140983103 Is it reasonable to commit
onesel to Godmdashto live a deeply religious lie And how much certainty does
one need beore the time has come to decide I yoursquove pondered these ques-
tions beore this book is or you
I was raised Catholic although religion was not a major part o our amily
lie We prayed beore meals and went to church on most Sundays but there
was little discussion o religious matters and no regular personal prayer atleast not on my part Sometime in my early teens I began to wonder about
the truth o the religion I had been born into Does God really exist I he
does then relationship with God is the most important part o human lie
But i he doesnrsquot then the religious person is enmeshed in a massive de-
ception ldquoWe believe in one God the Father the Almighty rdquo I ound
mysel saying at Mass But did I really mean it I wasnrsquot sure and the ear
that I was being dishonest concerned meI continued to wonder about God and the rationality o Christianity
throughout high school in college and in graduate school Now as a pro-
essor o philosophy itrsquos my job to think about these topics every day My
research ocuses on the rationality o religious belie and I wrestle with ar-
guments or and against God with classes ull o students rom every point
o view almost every semester I have become convinced that it is rational
to live a deeply religious Christian lie Indeed it may be irrational not to
When contemplating the choice to commit to living a Christian lie one
might suppose that one should rerain rom making a commitment in the
absence o rock-solid evidence or the truth o Christianity Reflection on
personal relationships suggests otherwise In Te Will to Believe William
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James asks us to consider a man who hesitates ldquoindefinitely to ask a certain
woman to marry him because he [is] not perectly sure that she would
prove [to be] an angel afer he brought her home Would he not cut himseloff rom that particular angel-possibility as decisively as i he went and
married some one elserdquo1 In the area o romantic love it can be reasonable
to invest deeply in a relationship and eventually make a lielong com-
mitment to the beloved despite the absence o airtight evidence that the
marriage will be a happy one Because there is so much at stake it can be
reasonable to make a commitment to a personal relationship even when
absolute certainty proves elusive Applying this to the question o Godeven i the evidence or God lef some room or doubt considerations
about the possible value o a relationship with God might avor the decision
to make a religious commitment
Seventeenth-century French mathematician and theologian Blaise Pascal
gave an argument that expands on this insight Pascalrsquos wager as the ar-
gument has come to be known addresses those who arenrsquot sure whether
Christianity is true but think that it might be true Te argument can besummed up in a single sentence It is rational to seek a relationship with God
and live a deeply Christian lie because there is very much to gain and rela-
tively little to lose
As the wager is usually presented whatrsquos to gain is eternal happiness or
the wagerer An alternative and more powerul version o the argument
however ocuses not just on sel-interest but also on goods that go beyond
sel-interest I one commits to God and God does in act exist one brings
joy to God and one is better able to help others attain union with God And
i Jesus really is who he claimed to be we may even have a moral duty to
commit to living a Christian lie I Christianity is true we have a duty to
love God and have been called by God himsel who has given us everything
good that we have to live a deeply religious lie More than just sel-interest
can motivate one to take the wager
On the other hand i Christianity is alse the committed Christian has
still lived a meaningul lie has pursued moral excellence and has enjoyed
the many empirically well-attested benefits o belonging to a religious com-
munity Much to gain relatively little to lose
In part one o this book (chapters one through our) Irsquoll present an updated
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Introduction 852017852019
version o Pascalrsquos wager strengthened by cutting-edge research rom psy-
chologists sociologists and philosophers Afer introducing and laying out
the basic argument in chapters one and two I turn to objections to the wagerin chapters three and our Tese include the objections that committing to
God on the basis o pragmatic considerations is immoral that the cost o
religious commitment is too high that the existence o religions other than
Christianity nullifies the argument and that Christian doctrine itsel casts
doubt on the wager When addressing this last issue I discuss grace ree will
and predestination
In part two (chapters five through twelve) Irsquoll take a careul look at argu-ments or the existence o God and the truth o Christianity showing howmdash
once we no longer demand certaintymdashthe available evidence is sufficient to
make serious Christian commitment entirely reasonable ogether parts
one and two present the bookrsquos main argument which can be summarized
as ollows
I Christianity has at least a 1048629983088 percent chance o being true then it is rational
to commit to living a Christian lie (the conclusion o part one)
Christianity does have at least a 1048629983088 percent chance o being true (the con-
clusion o part two)
Tus it is rational to commit to living a Christian lie
Te argument o part two proceeds in two stages First I present evidence
or theism (the view that there is a God) second I present evidence or the
more specific view o Christian theism I begin by asking the question o whyphysical reality exists at all Chapter five argues that there is at least one nec-
essarily existing being which explains the existence o contingent beings
(Contingent beings are things that reality didnrsquot have to include like all the
physical objects we see around us) Chapters six through eight then provide
an argument that the cause o physical reality is an intelligent being In the
last several decades mainstream physicists and astronomers have come to
realize that the lie-permitting character o our universe is balanced on a
kniersquos edge i several eatures had been ever-so-slightly different rom what
they in act are then stable sel-reproducing lie would not have been able
to arise Chapter six introduces some o the scientific evidence or this con-
clusion and gives a preliminary statement o what has come to be known as
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the fine-tuning argument Tis argument has been summarized or non-
specialists in several places but not always with enough rigor and back-
ground or the strength o the case to be ully displayed In chapter seven Iexplain the parts o probability theory required to appreciate the power o
the evidence that our universe is the product o an intelligence Chapter eight
contains an original reply to the strongest alternative to design the multi-
verse hypothesis (Tis is the hypothesis that our universe is just one o a vast
number o universes most o which are not lie permitting) aken together
chapters five through eight provide evidence or God drawing on the best
recent research but written so as to be accessible to the general readerIn chapter nine I turn to specifically Christian doctrines suggesting that
the beauty and existential resonance o Christianity are clues to its truth
Chapter ten concerns the two most powerul arguments against theism the
argument rom divine hiddenness and the argument rom evil (As argu-
ments against all orms o theism they are arguments against Christian
theism as well) Tese topics deserve not a single chapter but whole books
o their own And they have them So in chapter ten I summarize what I taketo be the strongest replies to the arguments rom hiddenness and evil o-
cusing on the recent work o Peter van Inwagen and Eleonore Stump Finally
in chapters eleven and twelve I turn to arguments or the resurrection o
Jesus Tis is just one o many Christian doctrines o course but logically
speaking it holds a special place I one has reason to believe that Jesus rose
rom the dead then one has reason to believe that Jesusrsquo teachings have
the divine stamp o approval and are thereore true So an argument or the
resurrection is an argument or the truth o Christianity (or at least the
larger part o one) In this pair o chapters I draw on the most recent work
on the issue by historians theologians and philosophers While I think that
the evidence o part two is by itsel sufficient to justiy belie in Christianity
agreement on this point is not required or the main argument o the book
to succeed For given the argument o part one all that is required or a
demonstration o the rationality o Christian commitment is that the evi-
dence render Christianity at least as likely as not
Itrsquos sometimes said that the longest distance in the world is the distance
rom the head to the heart And so in part three Irsquoll try to illustrate how a
lie o Christian commitment is not just reasonable but worth desiring as
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Introduction 852017852021
wellmdashsatisying both the head and the heart o do this Irsquoll tell the stories
o three exemplary individuals who took Jesus up on his invitation to ollow
him Te lives o these individuals were enriched and in turn enrichedcountless others in ways all o us would want to be true or our own lives
Dietrich Bonhoeffer Jean Vanier and Immaculeacutee Ilibagiza show how heroic
noble and beautiul a Christian lie can be Jesus said ldquoI came that they may
have lie and have it abundantlyrdquo (Jn 983089983088983089983088) Te abundance that so ofen
characterizes a devout Christian lie is not a matter o external goods or
material wealth but is internal and spiritual flowing rom a close personal
relationship with God Lie ocused on God offers comort inspiration anda peace that the vicissitudes o ortune need never take away
Te landscape o academic philosophy has changed significantly in the
last orty or fify years In the 983089983088s and rsquo1048631983088s it was taken or granted in many
philosophical circles that traditional Christian belie is unjustified and ir-
rational Tanks to the work o philosophers such as Alvin Plantinga
Eleonore Stump Peter van Inwagen and Richard Swinburne things have
changed
2
Recent decades have been a time o enormous productivity orphilosophers deending the rationality o Christian aith answering objec-
tions to Christian doctrines improving traditional arguments or the exis-
tence o God and ormulating new ones In the pages that ollow Irsquoll explore
some o the most important results o this body o work Irsquove written this
book though without presupposing that the reader has had ormal training
in philosophy or theology My hope is that it will be useul or anyone who
is interested in the evidence or God or the evidence or Christianity more
particularly I also hope that college students in philosophy and theology
courses will find the material worthwhile
Since this book is about evidence and reasons or religious belie itrsquos
worth addressing at the outset the question o why people believe what they
do on religious issues Isnrsquot religion a matter o the heart Does anyone really
believe on the basis o logic or argument Many committed Christians be-
lieve in God not primarily because o argument but because o experiencemdash
they have an intuitive sense o Godrsquos presence Perhaps not all the time but
certainly much o the time it just seems that God is there aware o what we
do and think Tis is how it is in my own case But what i you donrsquot happen
to have such an experience yoursel Or what i you have it occasionally but
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it is fleeting and open to serious doubt In those cases it makes good sense
to spend some time examining arguments and publicly available evidence
relating to questions about God and religion According to Christianityaith is a gif But or the person who does not have aith a careul look at
arguments or (and against) Christianity is a natural and reasonable step to
take Examination o evidence can also be worthwhile or the person who
does have aith but has doubts too In what ollows I give an extended
presentation o evidence or the truth o Christianity and a rigorous ar-
gument or the reasonableness o Christian commitment
While this book will ocus on the rational case or Christianity itrsquos im-portant to acknowledge that there are many actors involved in a decision
to commit to a Christian way o lie actors that go beyond impersonal
philosophical reasoning Onersquos upbringing onersquos experiences with indi-
vidual Christians the attitudes and views o onersquos closest riends and amily
onersquos emotional lie onersquos deep-seated hopes and ears and onersquos own par-
ticular way o viewing the worldmdashall o these come into play when one
encounters the message o Jesus I believe that the philosophical argumen-tation contained in this book will be helpul to many people but philo-
sophical argumentation is only one part o a larger picture When it comes
to religion logic may or may not be where one starts but itrsquos certainly not
where one should end Living a Christian lie is an act o the whole personmdash
mind and heart body and soul Still precisely because a Christian lie in-
volves the whole person there is a place or the mind and thus or reason
evidence and logic
Finally a ew words are called or regarding a concept that will play a
key role in what ollows probability Everyone has many belies but some
o those belies are held more confidently than others For example I be-
lieve that Irsquoll still be alive twenty-our hours rom now Irsquom not absolutely
certain I will be but nonetheless I do believe it I also believe Irsquoll be alive
twenty-our days rom now But Irsquom less confident in this belie than in my
belie about being alive twenty-our hours rom now How about twenty-
our years rom now In my case I wouldnrsquot say that I believe Irsquoll be alive
twenty-our years rom now I also donrsquot believe I wonrsquot be alive twenty-
our years rom nowmdashtherersquos just not enough inormation to orm a belie
one way or the other
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Introduction 852017852023
Philosophers sometimes use the language o ldquolevels o confidencerdquo when
discussing belies and probability Levels o confidence come in a scale rom
zero to one (or 983088 percent to 983089983088983088 percent) o be absolutely certain o some-thing (eg 983089 + 983089 = 1048626) is to assign it a level o confidence o 983089 o be absolutely
certain a claim is alse (eg 983089 + 983089 = 9830891048631) is to assign it a level o confidence o
983088 In such a situation one could say that the probability o the claim is 983088
percent Terersquos just no chance that yoursquove gotten conused and ldquo983089 + 983089 = 9830891048631rdquo
is really true What about a proposition like ldquothis normal penny will come
up heads when I flip itrdquo Here itrsquos reasonable to assign equal levels o confi-
dence both to this claim and to the claim that the penny will come up tailsSo wersquod assign both claims a level o confidence o 9830881048629 and we could say that
the chance the coin will be heads is 1048629983088 percent How confident am I that this
six-sided die will show either a 983089 or a 1048626 when I roll it 104862710486271048627 percent You get
the idea
Te word probability will come up ofen in this book Irsquoll sometimes also
talk about how likely something is or what the chance is that such-and-such
is true Unless otherwise noted these are all just different ways to talk aboutthe same thing what philosophers call epistemic probability Roughly the
epistemic probability o a proposition (that is a statement or a claim) is the
level o confidence itrsquos reasonable to assign to that proposition3
Probability evidence moral heroism commitment all o these actors
will enter into our discussion o the reasonableness o Christian theism But
enough with introductory matters On to deeper waters
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- Part One -
UNCERTAINTY
and
COMMITMENT
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- 983089 -
A CURIOUS OFFER
I983149983137983143983145983150983141 983156983144983137983156 983151983150983141 983140983137983161 you receive a phone call rom a abulously
wealthy individualmdashan eccentric billionaire known or spending his money
in odd and trivial ways He makes you a curious offer You are to determine
the religion you think most likely to be true and then practice that religion
devoutly attend religious services read the sacred scriptures o that religion
pray as that religion prescribes and live out the religionrsquos moral teachings
And he asks you to do this or the rest o your lie His part o the bargainwill be to place 983076983089983088 billion in an escrow account to be deliverable on your
death to whatever persons or causes you have named You can leave the
money to your amily or to a charitable organization or to scientific re-
search or any combination o the above whatever you think best I you
choose not to enter into the bargain he adds he will be using the money to
hire tens o thousands o artists to paint millions and millions o mediocre
oil paintings o his pet dog ScoutO course i this actually happened to you yoursquod be a mite skeptical But
imagine that afer due diligence you became convinced that this was no joke
And the billionaire clarified that you did not have to lie or otherwise mis-
represent yoursel in order to ulfill your side o the bargain I or example
you chose Christianity as the religion you thought most likely to be true you
would not have to recite the creed during the liturgy i you did not believe
it And your prayers could be conditional as in ldquoI yoursquore there God thank
you or this and please help me with thatrdquo An odd offer to be sure but also
in all probability the only chance yoursquoll ever have to direct 983076983089983088 billion o
wealth to persons or causes you care about So what would you do Would
you accept the offer
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Perhaps the act that the payoff is mere monetary gain gives you pause
Good or you to trade onersquos religious devotion or money would be base But
remember that you can name whatever beneficiary yoursquod like includingcharitable organizations that work with the poorest o the poor You can
trade your religious devotion or ood or the starving or education or
impoverished children in the developing world On board yet Say that the
billionaire adds that he doesnrsquot want to make this offer i you already happen
to be certain or almost certain that God does not exist His offer is only or
people who can say o some particular religion that there is at least a decent
chance that it is trueNow consider an alternative scenario Suppose that rom the get-go the
billionaire had offered you a different bargain the payoff is not a guaranteed
983076983089983088 billion but a 1048629983088 percent shot at 983076983089983088983088 billion Tat is suppose the bil-
lionairersquos side o the bargain is to put 983076983089983088983088 billion in an escrow account Ten
afer your death a air coin will be flipped I it comes up heads the entire
983076983089983088983088 billion will be given to your named beneficiary or beneficiaries I tails
then wersquoll have a lot o pictures o Scout Would you accept this offerHold on to that thought
Te overarching question o this book is the question o whether there is
good reason to make a serious commitment to living a Christian lie In part
two wersquoll take a tour o the evidence or Christianity But beore that the
question to ask first is ldquoHow much evidence would be required to make a
Christian commitment reasonablerdquo As Irsquoll try to show here in part one a
serious Christian commitment is recommended by reason even i there is
as little as a 1048629983088 percent chance that Christianity is true In other words i
you are willing to grant that Christianity is at least as likely as not then it is
rational or you to commit to living a devout Christian lie Indeed i yoursquore
in ordinary circumstances it is irrational or you not to1
P983137983155983139983137983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
Te argument Irsquoll give or this conclusion has its roots in the reflections o
seventeenth-century polymath Blaise Pascal Pascal made important contri-
butions in mathematics probability theory and physics His work on fluid
mechanics was instrumental in the later invention o the hydraulic press
and he himsel designed and built one o the first mechanical calculating
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A Curious Of fer 852018852019
machines an early precursor to the digital computer (Interestingly the
principles used in the machine are still employed in many automobile
odometers) Pascal was an inventor an intellectual and a scientist He wasalso a deeply religious man At the age o thirty-one he had a powerul mys-
tical experience o God He described the experience in a note and stitched
the note into his coat keeping it close to him He evidently transerred the
paper note (together with a cleaner copy he put down on parchment) rom
coat to coat or the rest o his liemdasha servant ound them afer his death
Pascal suffered rom ill health dying at only thirty-nine In his final years
he was drafing a work o apologetics Te disorganized ragments that werehis notes or the project were published posthumously and quickly became
a classic Pascalrsquos Pensees (French or ldquothoughtsrdquo)2 In one o those ragments
Pascal gives an argument not or the theoretical conclusion that God exists
but or the practical conclusion that one should live a devout Christian lie
Te argument is addressed to those who arenrsquot sure whether Christianity is
true or alse and has come to be known as Pascalrsquos wager o be precise the
ragment contains the seeds o our different arguments in support o reli-gious commitment3 Te strongest version comes down to this It is rational
to seek a relationship with God and live a deeply Christian lie because there
is very much to gain and relatively little to lose In chapter two Irsquoll present a
strengthened and expanded version o this argument I Christianity is
indeed true then by committing to live a Christian lie one brings great joy
to God and all others in heaven raises the chance that one will be with God
orever raises the chance that one will help others attain union with God
expresses gratitude to God and becomes more aware o Godrsquos love and more
receptive to his help in the course o onersquos earthly lie On the other hand i
Christianity is alse the person who commits his or her lie to Jesusrsquo teachings
has still lived a worthwhile lie striving or moral excellence and experi-
encing the benefits o religious community (benefits that contemporary
sociological research reveals to be significant)
Pascalrsquos pragmatic argument in support o religious commitment has had
its share o critics Tus the amous English philosopher G E Moore ldquo[Con-
cerning Pascalrsquos claim that] in our state o doubt we should decide or that
belie which promises the greater reward I have nothing to say o it except
that it seems to me absolutely wickedrdquo4 Voltaire thought the wager was
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ldquosomewhat indecent and childish Te idea o gaming o losing or winning
is quite unsuitable to the dignity o the subjectrdquo5 In much the same vein an
earlier French critic had complained ldquoI lose patience listening to youtreating the highest o all matters and resting the most important truth in
the world the source o all truths on an idea so base and puerile on a com-
parison with a game o heads and tails more productive o mirth than per-
suasionrdquo6 More recently Christopher Hitchens sees Pascalrsquos theology as ldquonot
ar short o sordidrdquo7 remarking that ldquoPascal reminds me o the hypocrites
and rauds who abound in almudic Jewish rationalization Donrsquot do any
work on the Sabbath yoursel but pay someone else to do it You obeyed theletter o the law whorsquos countingrdquo8
Are these objections air Mathematician James Franklin suggests that
Pascalrsquos actual view is ofen replaced with an unflattering caricature o the
wager Franklin contrasts these two views
What Pascal said You have to choose whether to accept religion Tink o it
as a coin toss where you donrsquot know the outcome In this case i you losemdash
therersquos no Godmdashyou have not lost much But i you win there is an infinitepayoff So you should go to Mass and pray or aith [Franklinrsquos paraphrase]
Pascal caricatured Being base and greedy we want lots o goodies in this
lie and i possible the next So we are prepared to give up some pleasures
now on the off chance o a lot more later i our eye to the main chance makes
it look worth our while Since the loot on offer is infinite even a small chance
o raking it in makes it worth a try to grovel to any deity that might do what
we want9
Franklin makes a good point Pascalrsquos argument is ofen interpreted in
the worst possible light Still there are legitimate objections to consider
even when Pascalrsquos reasoning is interpreted airly It may be that it is im-
moral to allow any considerations about cost and benefit to affect what we
believe Perhaps a respect or truth requires that our belies be determined
by evidence and evidence alone Second we must consider whether the
costs o committing to God are simply too high And perhaps the most
common criticism is that Pascal illicitly assumed there were only two op-
tions to consider atheism and (Catholic) Christianity Te many gods ob-
jection as itrsquos ofen called contends that the multitude o possibly true reli-
gions makes trouble or Pascal
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A Curious Of fer 852018852021
In chapters three and our Irsquoll elaborate on these and additional objec-
tions and respond to them But first we need to lay the basic argument
out on the table in more detail and with greater precision In order togive the strongest argument possible Irsquoll set aside the analysis o Pascalrsquos
text and instead develop a Pascalian argument in my own way10 Just or
the sake o having a handy title Irsquoll reer to my argument as ldquothe wagerrdquo
or even ldquoPascalrsquos wagerrdquo but this title should be taken merely as a re-
erence to its original inspiration not as a claim that I am providing a
verbatim reproduction o Pascalrsquos thought Indeed the wager Irsquoll present
takes advantage o cutting-edge work in philosophy and psychology andrecent sociological data unavailable to Pascal and it is thereore able to
greatly improve on his rather sketchy note Since itrsquos impossible to explain
the wager clearly without using some concepts rom decision theory
thatrsquos where wersquoll begin
D983141983139983145983155983145983151983150 T983144983141983151983154983161
Decision theory is about how to make good decisions in circumstances orisk or uncertainty Tree concepts are especially important states strat-
egies and outcomes A state is a possible way things might be (it will rain
today or it wonrsquot rain today) a strategy is a possible action the decider
might take (bring my umbrella or leave it at home) An outcome is a situ-
ation that results when a given strategy is taken and a certain state is actual
(eg the situation o being stuck in the rain without an umbrella) In order
to assess the suitability o the various available strategies the decision
maker attempts to orm a judgment about how valuable the various out-
comes are
For example suppose I offer you a bet I ask a trusted third party to flip
a air coin but not to tell us whether it lands heads or tails Ten I ask you
to decide either to play (that is participate in the bet) or pass I you choose
to play it will cost you one dollar but i you play and the coin has come up
heads you will get your dollar back and I will pay you two more dollars so
you will be up two dollars I you choose to play and the coin comes up tails
however I will keep your dollar so you will be down one dollar I on the
other hand you choose to pass no money will change hands either way
Would you take my bet
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I bet you would Decision theory allows us to say precisely why the bet is
avorable or you Tere are two possible states or you to consider it could
be that the coin has come up heads and it could be that it has come up tailsAt the time you make your decision you donrsquot know which state is the actual
way things are but you do know that itrsquos one or the other Next there are
two possible strategies you can adopt play or pass Corresponding to the
our possible combinations o these states and strategies there are our pos-
sible situations that may resultmdashthese are the outcomes (983089) you play the
game and the coin is heads and so you win two dollars (1048626) you play the
game and the coin is tails so you lose one dollar (1048627) you pass and the coinis heads so you neither gain nor lose and (1048628) you pass and the coin is tails
so you neither gain nor lose In considering the question o what to do the
decision maker is invited to evaluate the outcomes Tat is the decision
maker attempts to estimate how valuable the various outcomes are In this
case the monetary value o outcome 983089 or you is two dollars or outcome 1048626
it is minus one dollar and or outcomes 1048627 and 1048628 zero In the case o most
actual decisions values other than money are at stake But starting with an
example using money is a good way to get an initial grasp o decision theory
Decision theorists commonly use a ldquodecision matrixrdquo to sum up inor-
mation relevant to a decision In our case we need a two-by-two matrix Te
columns correspond to the two possible states o the world and the rows
correspond to the two strategies you might take In the cells we write down
the valuations o the resulting outcomes
Heads Tails
PlayOutcome 1
$2Outcome 2
$-1
PassOutcome 3
$0Outcome 4
$0
Figure 983089983089
Should you play or pass I you only had one dollar to your name and
needed it to buy ood lest you starve then it might not be wise to play But
i yoursquore in ordinary circumstances and the loss o a dollar would be no great
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A Curious Of fer 852018852023
loss then itrsquos rational to play Intuitively this is because yoursquove got an equal
chance o gaining and losing and i you gain you gain twice what you would
lose i you lost More precisely itrsquos because the expected value o playing ishigher than the expected value o passing Te expected value o a strategy
or a given game or bet is the average value per game that would accrue to
you i you played the game an infinite number o times and adopted that
strategy every time Here the expected value o the strategy ldquoplayrdquo can be
calculated by multiplying the probability o each state by the value o its
corresponding outcome and adding up the products So the expected value
o ldquoplayrdquo is equal to
(frac12) times (1048626) + (frac12) times (minus983089) = 1048629983088
I you were offered this bet a large number o times and you chose ldquoplayrdquo
every time yoursquod win an average o about fify cents per game Te expected
value o passing by contrast is
(frac12) times (983088) + (frac12) times (983088) = 983088
One reason playing is a good bet here is that the expected value o playing
(fify cents) is more than the expected value o passing (zero cents) Now as
it turns out itrsquos not always rational to take the strategy that maximizes onersquos
expected value11 But maximizing expected value is ofen a good way to
make decisions that involve risk
For the sake o clarity Irsquove illustrated the concepts o a state a strategy an
outcome and a decision matrix by giving an example with precise monetary
values or outcomes and with definite probabilities assigned to the possiblestates in question In real lie we usually donrsquot have precise probabilities to
assign to the states and much (perhaps most) o what we care about canrsquot
be valued in monetary terms Even in such cases however there are prin-
ciples that can guide our decision making
One such principle is at play when we say things like ldquoIrsquoll do X because it
canrsquot hurt and it might helprdquo or ldquoYou should do Y because therersquos nothing to
lose and maybe a lot to gainrdquo Suppose yoursquove borrowed your riendrsquos bicycleand have cycled to a store on the edge o town You put the lock around the
bike and a parking sign and as yoursquore lifing the key to lock up the bike it
occurs to you that this part o town is very sae and therersquos hardly any chance
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the bike will be stolen Besides when yoursquore inside the bike will be in your
view through the store window As you finish thinking this yoursquove also just
put the key into the lock So should you lock up the bike You donrsquot have anyprecise knowledge about the probability o thef in the circumstances and
while you could estimate the value o the bike therersquos no obvious way to
calculate the disvalue your riend would experience i your negligence got his
bike stolen Despite your lack o knowledge on those points though itrsquos clear
enough what you should do all you have to do to lock the bike is turn your
wrist A decision theorist could map out your situation like this
A thief will happen by A thief wont happen by
Lock Nothing bad happens Nothing bad happens
Dontlock
Bike stolen (probably) Nothing bad happens
Figure 983089 983090
I a motivated capable thie is in act coming along the strategy o locking
will result in a ar better outcome while i such a thie wonrsquot happen by locking
is no worse than unlocking (by the time o your decision itrsquos just so easy to
lock that therersquos no cost to locking) In the language o game theory we say
that the strategy o locking ldquoweakly dominatesrdquo the strategy o not locking
One strategy weakly dominates another i (and only i) there is at least one
possible state o the world on which the first strategy delivers a better outcome
than the second and there are no possible states o the world on which the
first strategy delivers a worse outcome than second In other words depending
on how things turn out adopting a weakly dominant strategy will either end
up yielding a better result than adopting the other strategy would have or it
will end up yielding a result that is just as good as what yoursquod have gotten with
the other strategy In a situation o uncertainty when we donrsquot know which o
several possible states o the world is the true one it is always better to adopt
a weakly dominant strategy instead o the strategy it dominates
In case yoursquore wondering one strategy strongly dominates another
strategy i and only i it delivers a better outcome on every possible state o
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A Curious Of fer 8520181048633
the world O course strongly dominant strategies are even more preerable
than weakly dominant strategies when you can get them
Decision theorists have other principles to help guide us in uncertaintyBut itrsquos worth noting that in some cases we donrsquot need a general principle
Sometimes we can just see what the smart thing to do is especially i wersquove
laid out the inormation in a decision matrix For example suppose again
that a trusted third party flips a coin or us but doesnrsquot say whether it lands
heads or tails Now imagine that I credibly make you this offer i you choose
to play and itrsquos heads then Irsquoll give you a million dollars while yoursquoll owe
me one dollar i itrsquos tails and yoursquove chosen to play I you choose to pass nomoney is exchanged either way We could represent this with the matrix
Heads Tails
PlayOutcome 1
$1000000Outcome 2
$-1
PassOutcome 3
$0Outcome 4
$0
Figure 983089 983091
Here we canrsquot say that playing weakly dominates passing because i the
coin is tails you do slightly better by passing But itrsquos one dollar wersquore talking
about Strictly speaking playing is not a weakly dominant strategy here but
itrsquos close enough Te payoff is so much greater i the coin is heads and the
loss is so little i itrsquos tails that itrsquos clearly rational to play Perhaps we couldstate a precise universally valid principle that would apply in this case and
tell us what to do but we donrsquot really need one we can just see what the
smart move is Tis insight will prove helpul later on
With these preliminaries behind us we can now turn to the wager A
consideration o this argument will allow us to see that Christian com-
mitment is recommended by reason so long as the available evidence makes
it at least as likely as not that the central claims o Christianity are true
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Notes 983090983090983091
Author Index 983090983092983093
Subject Index 983090983092983095
Scripture Index 983090983092983097
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INTRODUCTION
I983155 983145983156 983154983137983156983145983151983150983137983148 983156983151 983138983141983148983145983141983158983141 983145983150 G983151983140983103 Is it reasonable to commit
onesel to Godmdashto live a deeply religious lie And how much certainty does
one need beore the time has come to decide I yoursquove pondered these ques-
tions beore this book is or you
I was raised Catholic although religion was not a major part o our amily
lie We prayed beore meals and went to church on most Sundays but there
was little discussion o religious matters and no regular personal prayer atleast not on my part Sometime in my early teens I began to wonder about
the truth o the religion I had been born into Does God really exist I he
does then relationship with God is the most important part o human lie
But i he doesnrsquot then the religious person is enmeshed in a massive de-
ception ldquoWe believe in one God the Father the Almighty rdquo I ound
mysel saying at Mass But did I really mean it I wasnrsquot sure and the ear
that I was being dishonest concerned meI continued to wonder about God and the rationality o Christianity
throughout high school in college and in graduate school Now as a pro-
essor o philosophy itrsquos my job to think about these topics every day My
research ocuses on the rationality o religious belie and I wrestle with ar-
guments or and against God with classes ull o students rom every point
o view almost every semester I have become convinced that it is rational
to live a deeply religious Christian lie Indeed it may be irrational not to
When contemplating the choice to commit to living a Christian lie one
might suppose that one should rerain rom making a commitment in the
absence o rock-solid evidence or the truth o Christianity Reflection on
personal relationships suggests otherwise In Te Will to Believe William
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James asks us to consider a man who hesitates ldquoindefinitely to ask a certain
woman to marry him because he [is] not perectly sure that she would
prove [to be] an angel afer he brought her home Would he not cut himseloff rom that particular angel-possibility as decisively as i he went and
married some one elserdquo1 In the area o romantic love it can be reasonable
to invest deeply in a relationship and eventually make a lielong com-
mitment to the beloved despite the absence o airtight evidence that the
marriage will be a happy one Because there is so much at stake it can be
reasonable to make a commitment to a personal relationship even when
absolute certainty proves elusive Applying this to the question o Godeven i the evidence or God lef some room or doubt considerations
about the possible value o a relationship with God might avor the decision
to make a religious commitment
Seventeenth-century French mathematician and theologian Blaise Pascal
gave an argument that expands on this insight Pascalrsquos wager as the ar-
gument has come to be known addresses those who arenrsquot sure whether
Christianity is true but think that it might be true Te argument can besummed up in a single sentence It is rational to seek a relationship with God
and live a deeply Christian lie because there is very much to gain and rela-
tively little to lose
As the wager is usually presented whatrsquos to gain is eternal happiness or
the wagerer An alternative and more powerul version o the argument
however ocuses not just on sel-interest but also on goods that go beyond
sel-interest I one commits to God and God does in act exist one brings
joy to God and one is better able to help others attain union with God And
i Jesus really is who he claimed to be we may even have a moral duty to
commit to living a Christian lie I Christianity is true we have a duty to
love God and have been called by God himsel who has given us everything
good that we have to live a deeply religious lie More than just sel-interest
can motivate one to take the wager
On the other hand i Christianity is alse the committed Christian has
still lived a meaningul lie has pursued moral excellence and has enjoyed
the many empirically well-attested benefits o belonging to a religious com-
munity Much to gain relatively little to lose
In part one o this book (chapters one through our) Irsquoll present an updated
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Introduction 852017852019
version o Pascalrsquos wager strengthened by cutting-edge research rom psy-
chologists sociologists and philosophers Afer introducing and laying out
the basic argument in chapters one and two I turn to objections to the wagerin chapters three and our Tese include the objections that committing to
God on the basis o pragmatic considerations is immoral that the cost o
religious commitment is too high that the existence o religions other than
Christianity nullifies the argument and that Christian doctrine itsel casts
doubt on the wager When addressing this last issue I discuss grace ree will
and predestination
In part two (chapters five through twelve) Irsquoll take a careul look at argu-ments or the existence o God and the truth o Christianity showing howmdash
once we no longer demand certaintymdashthe available evidence is sufficient to
make serious Christian commitment entirely reasonable ogether parts
one and two present the bookrsquos main argument which can be summarized
as ollows
I Christianity has at least a 1048629983088 percent chance o being true then it is rational
to commit to living a Christian lie (the conclusion o part one)
Christianity does have at least a 1048629983088 percent chance o being true (the con-
clusion o part two)
Tus it is rational to commit to living a Christian lie
Te argument o part two proceeds in two stages First I present evidence
or theism (the view that there is a God) second I present evidence or the
more specific view o Christian theism I begin by asking the question o whyphysical reality exists at all Chapter five argues that there is at least one nec-
essarily existing being which explains the existence o contingent beings
(Contingent beings are things that reality didnrsquot have to include like all the
physical objects we see around us) Chapters six through eight then provide
an argument that the cause o physical reality is an intelligent being In the
last several decades mainstream physicists and astronomers have come to
realize that the lie-permitting character o our universe is balanced on a
kniersquos edge i several eatures had been ever-so-slightly different rom what
they in act are then stable sel-reproducing lie would not have been able
to arise Chapter six introduces some o the scientific evidence or this con-
clusion and gives a preliminary statement o what has come to be known as
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the fine-tuning argument Tis argument has been summarized or non-
specialists in several places but not always with enough rigor and back-
ground or the strength o the case to be ully displayed In chapter seven Iexplain the parts o probability theory required to appreciate the power o
the evidence that our universe is the product o an intelligence Chapter eight
contains an original reply to the strongest alternative to design the multi-
verse hypothesis (Tis is the hypothesis that our universe is just one o a vast
number o universes most o which are not lie permitting) aken together
chapters five through eight provide evidence or God drawing on the best
recent research but written so as to be accessible to the general readerIn chapter nine I turn to specifically Christian doctrines suggesting that
the beauty and existential resonance o Christianity are clues to its truth
Chapter ten concerns the two most powerul arguments against theism the
argument rom divine hiddenness and the argument rom evil (As argu-
ments against all orms o theism they are arguments against Christian
theism as well) Tese topics deserve not a single chapter but whole books
o their own And they have them So in chapter ten I summarize what I taketo be the strongest replies to the arguments rom hiddenness and evil o-
cusing on the recent work o Peter van Inwagen and Eleonore Stump Finally
in chapters eleven and twelve I turn to arguments or the resurrection o
Jesus Tis is just one o many Christian doctrines o course but logically
speaking it holds a special place I one has reason to believe that Jesus rose
rom the dead then one has reason to believe that Jesusrsquo teachings have
the divine stamp o approval and are thereore true So an argument or the
resurrection is an argument or the truth o Christianity (or at least the
larger part o one) In this pair o chapters I draw on the most recent work
on the issue by historians theologians and philosophers While I think that
the evidence o part two is by itsel sufficient to justiy belie in Christianity
agreement on this point is not required or the main argument o the book
to succeed For given the argument o part one all that is required or a
demonstration o the rationality o Christian commitment is that the evi-
dence render Christianity at least as likely as not
Itrsquos sometimes said that the longest distance in the world is the distance
rom the head to the heart And so in part three Irsquoll try to illustrate how a
lie o Christian commitment is not just reasonable but worth desiring as
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Introduction 852017852021
wellmdashsatisying both the head and the heart o do this Irsquoll tell the stories
o three exemplary individuals who took Jesus up on his invitation to ollow
him Te lives o these individuals were enriched and in turn enrichedcountless others in ways all o us would want to be true or our own lives
Dietrich Bonhoeffer Jean Vanier and Immaculeacutee Ilibagiza show how heroic
noble and beautiul a Christian lie can be Jesus said ldquoI came that they may
have lie and have it abundantlyrdquo (Jn 983089983088983089983088) Te abundance that so ofen
characterizes a devout Christian lie is not a matter o external goods or
material wealth but is internal and spiritual flowing rom a close personal
relationship with God Lie ocused on God offers comort inspiration anda peace that the vicissitudes o ortune need never take away
Te landscape o academic philosophy has changed significantly in the
last orty or fify years In the 983089983088s and rsquo1048631983088s it was taken or granted in many
philosophical circles that traditional Christian belie is unjustified and ir-
rational Tanks to the work o philosophers such as Alvin Plantinga
Eleonore Stump Peter van Inwagen and Richard Swinburne things have
changed
2
Recent decades have been a time o enormous productivity orphilosophers deending the rationality o Christian aith answering objec-
tions to Christian doctrines improving traditional arguments or the exis-
tence o God and ormulating new ones In the pages that ollow Irsquoll explore
some o the most important results o this body o work Irsquove written this
book though without presupposing that the reader has had ormal training
in philosophy or theology My hope is that it will be useul or anyone who
is interested in the evidence or God or the evidence or Christianity more
particularly I also hope that college students in philosophy and theology
courses will find the material worthwhile
Since this book is about evidence and reasons or religious belie itrsquos
worth addressing at the outset the question o why people believe what they
do on religious issues Isnrsquot religion a matter o the heart Does anyone really
believe on the basis o logic or argument Many committed Christians be-
lieve in God not primarily because o argument but because o experiencemdash
they have an intuitive sense o Godrsquos presence Perhaps not all the time but
certainly much o the time it just seems that God is there aware o what we
do and think Tis is how it is in my own case But what i you donrsquot happen
to have such an experience yoursel Or what i you have it occasionally but
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it is fleeting and open to serious doubt In those cases it makes good sense
to spend some time examining arguments and publicly available evidence
relating to questions about God and religion According to Christianityaith is a gif But or the person who does not have aith a careul look at
arguments or (and against) Christianity is a natural and reasonable step to
take Examination o evidence can also be worthwhile or the person who
does have aith but has doubts too In what ollows I give an extended
presentation o evidence or the truth o Christianity and a rigorous ar-
gument or the reasonableness o Christian commitment
While this book will ocus on the rational case or Christianity itrsquos im-portant to acknowledge that there are many actors involved in a decision
to commit to a Christian way o lie actors that go beyond impersonal
philosophical reasoning Onersquos upbringing onersquos experiences with indi-
vidual Christians the attitudes and views o onersquos closest riends and amily
onersquos emotional lie onersquos deep-seated hopes and ears and onersquos own par-
ticular way o viewing the worldmdashall o these come into play when one
encounters the message o Jesus I believe that the philosophical argumen-tation contained in this book will be helpul to many people but philo-
sophical argumentation is only one part o a larger picture When it comes
to religion logic may or may not be where one starts but itrsquos certainly not
where one should end Living a Christian lie is an act o the whole personmdash
mind and heart body and soul Still precisely because a Christian lie in-
volves the whole person there is a place or the mind and thus or reason
evidence and logic
Finally a ew words are called or regarding a concept that will play a
key role in what ollows probability Everyone has many belies but some
o those belies are held more confidently than others For example I be-
lieve that Irsquoll still be alive twenty-our hours rom now Irsquom not absolutely
certain I will be but nonetheless I do believe it I also believe Irsquoll be alive
twenty-our days rom now But Irsquom less confident in this belie than in my
belie about being alive twenty-our hours rom now How about twenty-
our years rom now In my case I wouldnrsquot say that I believe Irsquoll be alive
twenty-our years rom now I also donrsquot believe I wonrsquot be alive twenty-
our years rom nowmdashtherersquos just not enough inormation to orm a belie
one way or the other
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Introduction 852017852023
Philosophers sometimes use the language o ldquolevels o confidencerdquo when
discussing belies and probability Levels o confidence come in a scale rom
zero to one (or 983088 percent to 983089983088983088 percent) o be absolutely certain o some-thing (eg 983089 + 983089 = 1048626) is to assign it a level o confidence o 983089 o be absolutely
certain a claim is alse (eg 983089 + 983089 = 9830891048631) is to assign it a level o confidence o
983088 In such a situation one could say that the probability o the claim is 983088
percent Terersquos just no chance that yoursquove gotten conused and ldquo983089 + 983089 = 9830891048631rdquo
is really true What about a proposition like ldquothis normal penny will come
up heads when I flip itrdquo Here itrsquos reasonable to assign equal levels o confi-
dence both to this claim and to the claim that the penny will come up tailsSo wersquod assign both claims a level o confidence o 9830881048629 and we could say that
the chance the coin will be heads is 1048629983088 percent How confident am I that this
six-sided die will show either a 983089 or a 1048626 when I roll it 104862710486271048627 percent You get
the idea
Te word probability will come up ofen in this book Irsquoll sometimes also
talk about how likely something is or what the chance is that such-and-such
is true Unless otherwise noted these are all just different ways to talk aboutthe same thing what philosophers call epistemic probability Roughly the
epistemic probability o a proposition (that is a statement or a claim) is the
level o confidence itrsquos reasonable to assign to that proposition3
Probability evidence moral heroism commitment all o these actors
will enter into our discussion o the reasonableness o Christian theism But
enough with introductory matters On to deeper waters
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- Part One -
UNCERTAINTY
and
COMMITMENT
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- 983089 -
A CURIOUS OFFER
I983149983137983143983145983150983141 983156983144983137983156 983151983150983141 983140983137983161 you receive a phone call rom a abulously
wealthy individualmdashan eccentric billionaire known or spending his money
in odd and trivial ways He makes you a curious offer You are to determine
the religion you think most likely to be true and then practice that religion
devoutly attend religious services read the sacred scriptures o that religion
pray as that religion prescribes and live out the religionrsquos moral teachings
And he asks you to do this or the rest o your lie His part o the bargainwill be to place 983076983089983088 billion in an escrow account to be deliverable on your
death to whatever persons or causes you have named You can leave the
money to your amily or to a charitable organization or to scientific re-
search or any combination o the above whatever you think best I you
choose not to enter into the bargain he adds he will be using the money to
hire tens o thousands o artists to paint millions and millions o mediocre
oil paintings o his pet dog ScoutO course i this actually happened to you yoursquod be a mite skeptical But
imagine that afer due diligence you became convinced that this was no joke
And the billionaire clarified that you did not have to lie or otherwise mis-
represent yoursel in order to ulfill your side o the bargain I or example
you chose Christianity as the religion you thought most likely to be true you
would not have to recite the creed during the liturgy i you did not believe
it And your prayers could be conditional as in ldquoI yoursquore there God thank
you or this and please help me with thatrdquo An odd offer to be sure but also
in all probability the only chance yoursquoll ever have to direct 983076983089983088 billion o
wealth to persons or causes you care about So what would you do Would
you accept the offer
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Perhaps the act that the payoff is mere monetary gain gives you pause
Good or you to trade onersquos religious devotion or money would be base But
remember that you can name whatever beneficiary yoursquod like includingcharitable organizations that work with the poorest o the poor You can
trade your religious devotion or ood or the starving or education or
impoverished children in the developing world On board yet Say that the
billionaire adds that he doesnrsquot want to make this offer i you already happen
to be certain or almost certain that God does not exist His offer is only or
people who can say o some particular religion that there is at least a decent
chance that it is trueNow consider an alternative scenario Suppose that rom the get-go the
billionaire had offered you a different bargain the payoff is not a guaranteed
983076983089983088 billion but a 1048629983088 percent shot at 983076983089983088983088 billion Tat is suppose the bil-
lionairersquos side o the bargain is to put 983076983089983088983088 billion in an escrow account Ten
afer your death a air coin will be flipped I it comes up heads the entire
983076983089983088983088 billion will be given to your named beneficiary or beneficiaries I tails
then wersquoll have a lot o pictures o Scout Would you accept this offerHold on to that thought
Te overarching question o this book is the question o whether there is
good reason to make a serious commitment to living a Christian lie In part
two wersquoll take a tour o the evidence or Christianity But beore that the
question to ask first is ldquoHow much evidence would be required to make a
Christian commitment reasonablerdquo As Irsquoll try to show here in part one a
serious Christian commitment is recommended by reason even i there is
as little as a 1048629983088 percent chance that Christianity is true In other words i
you are willing to grant that Christianity is at least as likely as not then it is
rational or you to commit to living a devout Christian lie Indeed i yoursquore
in ordinary circumstances it is irrational or you not to1
P983137983155983139983137983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
Te argument Irsquoll give or this conclusion has its roots in the reflections o
seventeenth-century polymath Blaise Pascal Pascal made important contri-
butions in mathematics probability theory and physics His work on fluid
mechanics was instrumental in the later invention o the hydraulic press
and he himsel designed and built one o the first mechanical calculating
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A Curious Of fer 852018852019
machines an early precursor to the digital computer (Interestingly the
principles used in the machine are still employed in many automobile
odometers) Pascal was an inventor an intellectual and a scientist He wasalso a deeply religious man At the age o thirty-one he had a powerul mys-
tical experience o God He described the experience in a note and stitched
the note into his coat keeping it close to him He evidently transerred the
paper note (together with a cleaner copy he put down on parchment) rom
coat to coat or the rest o his liemdasha servant ound them afer his death
Pascal suffered rom ill health dying at only thirty-nine In his final years
he was drafing a work o apologetics Te disorganized ragments that werehis notes or the project were published posthumously and quickly became
a classic Pascalrsquos Pensees (French or ldquothoughtsrdquo)2 In one o those ragments
Pascal gives an argument not or the theoretical conclusion that God exists
but or the practical conclusion that one should live a devout Christian lie
Te argument is addressed to those who arenrsquot sure whether Christianity is
true or alse and has come to be known as Pascalrsquos wager o be precise the
ragment contains the seeds o our different arguments in support o reli-gious commitment3 Te strongest version comes down to this It is rational
to seek a relationship with God and live a deeply Christian lie because there
is very much to gain and relatively little to lose In chapter two Irsquoll present a
strengthened and expanded version o this argument I Christianity is
indeed true then by committing to live a Christian lie one brings great joy
to God and all others in heaven raises the chance that one will be with God
orever raises the chance that one will help others attain union with God
expresses gratitude to God and becomes more aware o Godrsquos love and more
receptive to his help in the course o onersquos earthly lie On the other hand i
Christianity is alse the person who commits his or her lie to Jesusrsquo teachings
has still lived a worthwhile lie striving or moral excellence and experi-
encing the benefits o religious community (benefits that contemporary
sociological research reveals to be significant)
Pascalrsquos pragmatic argument in support o religious commitment has had
its share o critics Tus the amous English philosopher G E Moore ldquo[Con-
cerning Pascalrsquos claim that] in our state o doubt we should decide or that
belie which promises the greater reward I have nothing to say o it except
that it seems to me absolutely wickedrdquo4 Voltaire thought the wager was
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ldquosomewhat indecent and childish Te idea o gaming o losing or winning
is quite unsuitable to the dignity o the subjectrdquo5 In much the same vein an
earlier French critic had complained ldquoI lose patience listening to youtreating the highest o all matters and resting the most important truth in
the world the source o all truths on an idea so base and puerile on a com-
parison with a game o heads and tails more productive o mirth than per-
suasionrdquo6 More recently Christopher Hitchens sees Pascalrsquos theology as ldquonot
ar short o sordidrdquo7 remarking that ldquoPascal reminds me o the hypocrites
and rauds who abound in almudic Jewish rationalization Donrsquot do any
work on the Sabbath yoursel but pay someone else to do it You obeyed theletter o the law whorsquos countingrdquo8
Are these objections air Mathematician James Franklin suggests that
Pascalrsquos actual view is ofen replaced with an unflattering caricature o the
wager Franklin contrasts these two views
What Pascal said You have to choose whether to accept religion Tink o it
as a coin toss where you donrsquot know the outcome In this case i you losemdash
therersquos no Godmdashyou have not lost much But i you win there is an infinitepayoff So you should go to Mass and pray or aith [Franklinrsquos paraphrase]
Pascal caricatured Being base and greedy we want lots o goodies in this
lie and i possible the next So we are prepared to give up some pleasures
now on the off chance o a lot more later i our eye to the main chance makes
it look worth our while Since the loot on offer is infinite even a small chance
o raking it in makes it worth a try to grovel to any deity that might do what
we want9
Franklin makes a good point Pascalrsquos argument is ofen interpreted in
the worst possible light Still there are legitimate objections to consider
even when Pascalrsquos reasoning is interpreted airly It may be that it is im-
moral to allow any considerations about cost and benefit to affect what we
believe Perhaps a respect or truth requires that our belies be determined
by evidence and evidence alone Second we must consider whether the
costs o committing to God are simply too high And perhaps the most
common criticism is that Pascal illicitly assumed there were only two op-
tions to consider atheism and (Catholic) Christianity Te many gods ob-
jection as itrsquos ofen called contends that the multitude o possibly true reli-
gions makes trouble or Pascal
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A Curious Of fer 852018852021
In chapters three and our Irsquoll elaborate on these and additional objec-
tions and respond to them But first we need to lay the basic argument
out on the table in more detail and with greater precision In order togive the strongest argument possible Irsquoll set aside the analysis o Pascalrsquos
text and instead develop a Pascalian argument in my own way10 Just or
the sake o having a handy title Irsquoll reer to my argument as ldquothe wagerrdquo
or even ldquoPascalrsquos wagerrdquo but this title should be taken merely as a re-
erence to its original inspiration not as a claim that I am providing a
verbatim reproduction o Pascalrsquos thought Indeed the wager Irsquoll present
takes advantage o cutting-edge work in philosophy and psychology andrecent sociological data unavailable to Pascal and it is thereore able to
greatly improve on his rather sketchy note Since itrsquos impossible to explain
the wager clearly without using some concepts rom decision theory
thatrsquos where wersquoll begin
D983141983139983145983155983145983151983150 T983144983141983151983154983161
Decision theory is about how to make good decisions in circumstances orisk or uncertainty Tree concepts are especially important states strat-
egies and outcomes A state is a possible way things might be (it will rain
today or it wonrsquot rain today) a strategy is a possible action the decider
might take (bring my umbrella or leave it at home) An outcome is a situ-
ation that results when a given strategy is taken and a certain state is actual
(eg the situation o being stuck in the rain without an umbrella) In order
to assess the suitability o the various available strategies the decision
maker attempts to orm a judgment about how valuable the various out-
comes are
For example suppose I offer you a bet I ask a trusted third party to flip
a air coin but not to tell us whether it lands heads or tails Ten I ask you
to decide either to play (that is participate in the bet) or pass I you choose
to play it will cost you one dollar but i you play and the coin has come up
heads you will get your dollar back and I will pay you two more dollars so
you will be up two dollars I you choose to play and the coin comes up tails
however I will keep your dollar so you will be down one dollar I on the
other hand you choose to pass no money will change hands either way
Would you take my bet
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I bet you would Decision theory allows us to say precisely why the bet is
avorable or you Tere are two possible states or you to consider it could
be that the coin has come up heads and it could be that it has come up tailsAt the time you make your decision you donrsquot know which state is the actual
way things are but you do know that itrsquos one or the other Next there are
two possible strategies you can adopt play or pass Corresponding to the
our possible combinations o these states and strategies there are our pos-
sible situations that may resultmdashthese are the outcomes (983089) you play the
game and the coin is heads and so you win two dollars (1048626) you play the
game and the coin is tails so you lose one dollar (1048627) you pass and the coinis heads so you neither gain nor lose and (1048628) you pass and the coin is tails
so you neither gain nor lose In considering the question o what to do the
decision maker is invited to evaluate the outcomes Tat is the decision
maker attempts to estimate how valuable the various outcomes are In this
case the monetary value o outcome 983089 or you is two dollars or outcome 1048626
it is minus one dollar and or outcomes 1048627 and 1048628 zero In the case o most
actual decisions values other than money are at stake But starting with an
example using money is a good way to get an initial grasp o decision theory
Decision theorists commonly use a ldquodecision matrixrdquo to sum up inor-
mation relevant to a decision In our case we need a two-by-two matrix Te
columns correspond to the two possible states o the world and the rows
correspond to the two strategies you might take In the cells we write down
the valuations o the resulting outcomes
Heads Tails
PlayOutcome 1
$2Outcome 2
$-1
PassOutcome 3
$0Outcome 4
$0
Figure 983089983089
Should you play or pass I you only had one dollar to your name and
needed it to buy ood lest you starve then it might not be wise to play But
i yoursquore in ordinary circumstances and the loss o a dollar would be no great
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A Curious Of fer 852018852023
loss then itrsquos rational to play Intuitively this is because yoursquove got an equal
chance o gaining and losing and i you gain you gain twice what you would
lose i you lost More precisely itrsquos because the expected value o playing ishigher than the expected value o passing Te expected value o a strategy
or a given game or bet is the average value per game that would accrue to
you i you played the game an infinite number o times and adopted that
strategy every time Here the expected value o the strategy ldquoplayrdquo can be
calculated by multiplying the probability o each state by the value o its
corresponding outcome and adding up the products So the expected value
o ldquoplayrdquo is equal to
(frac12) times (1048626) + (frac12) times (minus983089) = 1048629983088
I you were offered this bet a large number o times and you chose ldquoplayrdquo
every time yoursquod win an average o about fify cents per game Te expected
value o passing by contrast is
(frac12) times (983088) + (frac12) times (983088) = 983088
One reason playing is a good bet here is that the expected value o playing
(fify cents) is more than the expected value o passing (zero cents) Now as
it turns out itrsquos not always rational to take the strategy that maximizes onersquos
expected value11 But maximizing expected value is ofen a good way to
make decisions that involve risk
For the sake o clarity Irsquove illustrated the concepts o a state a strategy an
outcome and a decision matrix by giving an example with precise monetary
values or outcomes and with definite probabilities assigned to the possiblestates in question In real lie we usually donrsquot have precise probabilities to
assign to the states and much (perhaps most) o what we care about canrsquot
be valued in monetary terms Even in such cases however there are prin-
ciples that can guide our decision making
One such principle is at play when we say things like ldquoIrsquoll do X because it
canrsquot hurt and it might helprdquo or ldquoYou should do Y because therersquos nothing to
lose and maybe a lot to gainrdquo Suppose yoursquove borrowed your riendrsquos bicycleand have cycled to a store on the edge o town You put the lock around the
bike and a parking sign and as yoursquore lifing the key to lock up the bike it
occurs to you that this part o town is very sae and therersquos hardly any chance
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the bike will be stolen Besides when yoursquore inside the bike will be in your
view through the store window As you finish thinking this yoursquove also just
put the key into the lock So should you lock up the bike You donrsquot have anyprecise knowledge about the probability o thef in the circumstances and
while you could estimate the value o the bike therersquos no obvious way to
calculate the disvalue your riend would experience i your negligence got his
bike stolen Despite your lack o knowledge on those points though itrsquos clear
enough what you should do all you have to do to lock the bike is turn your
wrist A decision theorist could map out your situation like this
A thief will happen by A thief wont happen by
Lock Nothing bad happens Nothing bad happens
Dontlock
Bike stolen (probably) Nothing bad happens
Figure 983089 983090
I a motivated capable thie is in act coming along the strategy o locking
will result in a ar better outcome while i such a thie wonrsquot happen by locking
is no worse than unlocking (by the time o your decision itrsquos just so easy to
lock that therersquos no cost to locking) In the language o game theory we say
that the strategy o locking ldquoweakly dominatesrdquo the strategy o not locking
One strategy weakly dominates another i (and only i) there is at least one
possible state o the world on which the first strategy delivers a better outcome
than the second and there are no possible states o the world on which the
first strategy delivers a worse outcome than second In other words depending
on how things turn out adopting a weakly dominant strategy will either end
up yielding a better result than adopting the other strategy would have or it
will end up yielding a result that is just as good as what yoursquod have gotten with
the other strategy In a situation o uncertainty when we donrsquot know which o
several possible states o the world is the true one it is always better to adopt
a weakly dominant strategy instead o the strategy it dominates
In case yoursquore wondering one strategy strongly dominates another
strategy i and only i it delivers a better outcome on every possible state o
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A Curious Of fer 8520181048633
the world O course strongly dominant strategies are even more preerable
than weakly dominant strategies when you can get them
Decision theorists have other principles to help guide us in uncertaintyBut itrsquos worth noting that in some cases we donrsquot need a general principle
Sometimes we can just see what the smart thing to do is especially i wersquove
laid out the inormation in a decision matrix For example suppose again
that a trusted third party flips a coin or us but doesnrsquot say whether it lands
heads or tails Now imagine that I credibly make you this offer i you choose
to play and itrsquos heads then Irsquoll give you a million dollars while yoursquoll owe
me one dollar i itrsquos tails and yoursquove chosen to play I you choose to pass nomoney is exchanged either way We could represent this with the matrix
Heads Tails
PlayOutcome 1
$1000000Outcome 2
$-1
PassOutcome 3
$0Outcome 4
$0
Figure 983089 983091
Here we canrsquot say that playing weakly dominates passing because i the
coin is tails you do slightly better by passing But itrsquos one dollar wersquore talking
about Strictly speaking playing is not a weakly dominant strategy here but
itrsquos close enough Te payoff is so much greater i the coin is heads and the
loss is so little i itrsquos tails that itrsquos clearly rational to play Perhaps we couldstate a precise universally valid principle that would apply in this case and
tell us what to do but we donrsquot really need one we can just see what the
smart move is Tis insight will prove helpul later on
With these preliminaries behind us we can now turn to the wager A
consideration o this argument will allow us to see that Christian com-
mitment is recommended by reason so long as the available evidence makes
it at least as likely as not that the central claims o Christianity are true
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INTRODUCTION
I983155 983145983156 983154983137983156983145983151983150983137983148 983156983151 983138983141983148983145983141983158983141 983145983150 G983151983140983103 Is it reasonable to commit
onesel to Godmdashto live a deeply religious lie And how much certainty does
one need beore the time has come to decide I yoursquove pondered these ques-
tions beore this book is or you
I was raised Catholic although religion was not a major part o our amily
lie We prayed beore meals and went to church on most Sundays but there
was little discussion o religious matters and no regular personal prayer atleast not on my part Sometime in my early teens I began to wonder about
the truth o the religion I had been born into Does God really exist I he
does then relationship with God is the most important part o human lie
But i he doesnrsquot then the religious person is enmeshed in a massive de-
ception ldquoWe believe in one God the Father the Almighty rdquo I ound
mysel saying at Mass But did I really mean it I wasnrsquot sure and the ear
that I was being dishonest concerned meI continued to wonder about God and the rationality o Christianity
throughout high school in college and in graduate school Now as a pro-
essor o philosophy itrsquos my job to think about these topics every day My
research ocuses on the rationality o religious belie and I wrestle with ar-
guments or and against God with classes ull o students rom every point
o view almost every semester I have become convinced that it is rational
to live a deeply religious Christian lie Indeed it may be irrational not to
When contemplating the choice to commit to living a Christian lie one
might suppose that one should rerain rom making a commitment in the
absence o rock-solid evidence or the truth o Christianity Reflection on
personal relationships suggests otherwise In Te Will to Believe William
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James asks us to consider a man who hesitates ldquoindefinitely to ask a certain
woman to marry him because he [is] not perectly sure that she would
prove [to be] an angel afer he brought her home Would he not cut himseloff rom that particular angel-possibility as decisively as i he went and
married some one elserdquo1 In the area o romantic love it can be reasonable
to invest deeply in a relationship and eventually make a lielong com-
mitment to the beloved despite the absence o airtight evidence that the
marriage will be a happy one Because there is so much at stake it can be
reasonable to make a commitment to a personal relationship even when
absolute certainty proves elusive Applying this to the question o Godeven i the evidence or God lef some room or doubt considerations
about the possible value o a relationship with God might avor the decision
to make a religious commitment
Seventeenth-century French mathematician and theologian Blaise Pascal
gave an argument that expands on this insight Pascalrsquos wager as the ar-
gument has come to be known addresses those who arenrsquot sure whether
Christianity is true but think that it might be true Te argument can besummed up in a single sentence It is rational to seek a relationship with God
and live a deeply Christian lie because there is very much to gain and rela-
tively little to lose
As the wager is usually presented whatrsquos to gain is eternal happiness or
the wagerer An alternative and more powerul version o the argument
however ocuses not just on sel-interest but also on goods that go beyond
sel-interest I one commits to God and God does in act exist one brings
joy to God and one is better able to help others attain union with God And
i Jesus really is who he claimed to be we may even have a moral duty to
commit to living a Christian lie I Christianity is true we have a duty to
love God and have been called by God himsel who has given us everything
good that we have to live a deeply religious lie More than just sel-interest
can motivate one to take the wager
On the other hand i Christianity is alse the committed Christian has
still lived a meaningul lie has pursued moral excellence and has enjoyed
the many empirically well-attested benefits o belonging to a religious com-
munity Much to gain relatively little to lose
In part one o this book (chapters one through our) Irsquoll present an updated
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Introduction 852017852019
version o Pascalrsquos wager strengthened by cutting-edge research rom psy-
chologists sociologists and philosophers Afer introducing and laying out
the basic argument in chapters one and two I turn to objections to the wagerin chapters three and our Tese include the objections that committing to
God on the basis o pragmatic considerations is immoral that the cost o
religious commitment is too high that the existence o religions other than
Christianity nullifies the argument and that Christian doctrine itsel casts
doubt on the wager When addressing this last issue I discuss grace ree will
and predestination
In part two (chapters five through twelve) Irsquoll take a careul look at argu-ments or the existence o God and the truth o Christianity showing howmdash
once we no longer demand certaintymdashthe available evidence is sufficient to
make serious Christian commitment entirely reasonable ogether parts
one and two present the bookrsquos main argument which can be summarized
as ollows
I Christianity has at least a 1048629983088 percent chance o being true then it is rational
to commit to living a Christian lie (the conclusion o part one)
Christianity does have at least a 1048629983088 percent chance o being true (the con-
clusion o part two)
Tus it is rational to commit to living a Christian lie
Te argument o part two proceeds in two stages First I present evidence
or theism (the view that there is a God) second I present evidence or the
more specific view o Christian theism I begin by asking the question o whyphysical reality exists at all Chapter five argues that there is at least one nec-
essarily existing being which explains the existence o contingent beings
(Contingent beings are things that reality didnrsquot have to include like all the
physical objects we see around us) Chapters six through eight then provide
an argument that the cause o physical reality is an intelligent being In the
last several decades mainstream physicists and astronomers have come to
realize that the lie-permitting character o our universe is balanced on a
kniersquos edge i several eatures had been ever-so-slightly different rom what
they in act are then stable sel-reproducing lie would not have been able
to arise Chapter six introduces some o the scientific evidence or this con-
clusion and gives a preliminary statement o what has come to be known as
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852017852020 983137983147983145 983150983143 P983137983155983139983137 983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
the fine-tuning argument Tis argument has been summarized or non-
specialists in several places but not always with enough rigor and back-
ground or the strength o the case to be ully displayed In chapter seven Iexplain the parts o probability theory required to appreciate the power o
the evidence that our universe is the product o an intelligence Chapter eight
contains an original reply to the strongest alternative to design the multi-
verse hypothesis (Tis is the hypothesis that our universe is just one o a vast
number o universes most o which are not lie permitting) aken together
chapters five through eight provide evidence or God drawing on the best
recent research but written so as to be accessible to the general readerIn chapter nine I turn to specifically Christian doctrines suggesting that
the beauty and existential resonance o Christianity are clues to its truth
Chapter ten concerns the two most powerul arguments against theism the
argument rom divine hiddenness and the argument rom evil (As argu-
ments against all orms o theism they are arguments against Christian
theism as well) Tese topics deserve not a single chapter but whole books
o their own And they have them So in chapter ten I summarize what I taketo be the strongest replies to the arguments rom hiddenness and evil o-
cusing on the recent work o Peter van Inwagen and Eleonore Stump Finally
in chapters eleven and twelve I turn to arguments or the resurrection o
Jesus Tis is just one o many Christian doctrines o course but logically
speaking it holds a special place I one has reason to believe that Jesus rose
rom the dead then one has reason to believe that Jesusrsquo teachings have
the divine stamp o approval and are thereore true So an argument or the
resurrection is an argument or the truth o Christianity (or at least the
larger part o one) In this pair o chapters I draw on the most recent work
on the issue by historians theologians and philosophers While I think that
the evidence o part two is by itsel sufficient to justiy belie in Christianity
agreement on this point is not required or the main argument o the book
to succeed For given the argument o part one all that is required or a
demonstration o the rationality o Christian commitment is that the evi-
dence render Christianity at least as likely as not
Itrsquos sometimes said that the longest distance in the world is the distance
rom the head to the heart And so in part three Irsquoll try to illustrate how a
lie o Christian commitment is not just reasonable but worth desiring as
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Introduction 852017852021
wellmdashsatisying both the head and the heart o do this Irsquoll tell the stories
o three exemplary individuals who took Jesus up on his invitation to ollow
him Te lives o these individuals were enriched and in turn enrichedcountless others in ways all o us would want to be true or our own lives
Dietrich Bonhoeffer Jean Vanier and Immaculeacutee Ilibagiza show how heroic
noble and beautiul a Christian lie can be Jesus said ldquoI came that they may
have lie and have it abundantlyrdquo (Jn 983089983088983089983088) Te abundance that so ofen
characterizes a devout Christian lie is not a matter o external goods or
material wealth but is internal and spiritual flowing rom a close personal
relationship with God Lie ocused on God offers comort inspiration anda peace that the vicissitudes o ortune need never take away
Te landscape o academic philosophy has changed significantly in the
last orty or fify years In the 983089983088s and rsquo1048631983088s it was taken or granted in many
philosophical circles that traditional Christian belie is unjustified and ir-
rational Tanks to the work o philosophers such as Alvin Plantinga
Eleonore Stump Peter van Inwagen and Richard Swinburne things have
changed
2
Recent decades have been a time o enormous productivity orphilosophers deending the rationality o Christian aith answering objec-
tions to Christian doctrines improving traditional arguments or the exis-
tence o God and ormulating new ones In the pages that ollow Irsquoll explore
some o the most important results o this body o work Irsquove written this
book though without presupposing that the reader has had ormal training
in philosophy or theology My hope is that it will be useul or anyone who
is interested in the evidence or God or the evidence or Christianity more
particularly I also hope that college students in philosophy and theology
courses will find the material worthwhile
Since this book is about evidence and reasons or religious belie itrsquos
worth addressing at the outset the question o why people believe what they
do on religious issues Isnrsquot religion a matter o the heart Does anyone really
believe on the basis o logic or argument Many committed Christians be-
lieve in God not primarily because o argument but because o experiencemdash
they have an intuitive sense o Godrsquos presence Perhaps not all the time but
certainly much o the time it just seems that God is there aware o what we
do and think Tis is how it is in my own case But what i you donrsquot happen
to have such an experience yoursel Or what i you have it occasionally but
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it is fleeting and open to serious doubt In those cases it makes good sense
to spend some time examining arguments and publicly available evidence
relating to questions about God and religion According to Christianityaith is a gif But or the person who does not have aith a careul look at
arguments or (and against) Christianity is a natural and reasonable step to
take Examination o evidence can also be worthwhile or the person who
does have aith but has doubts too In what ollows I give an extended
presentation o evidence or the truth o Christianity and a rigorous ar-
gument or the reasonableness o Christian commitment
While this book will ocus on the rational case or Christianity itrsquos im-portant to acknowledge that there are many actors involved in a decision
to commit to a Christian way o lie actors that go beyond impersonal
philosophical reasoning Onersquos upbringing onersquos experiences with indi-
vidual Christians the attitudes and views o onersquos closest riends and amily
onersquos emotional lie onersquos deep-seated hopes and ears and onersquos own par-
ticular way o viewing the worldmdashall o these come into play when one
encounters the message o Jesus I believe that the philosophical argumen-tation contained in this book will be helpul to many people but philo-
sophical argumentation is only one part o a larger picture When it comes
to religion logic may or may not be where one starts but itrsquos certainly not
where one should end Living a Christian lie is an act o the whole personmdash
mind and heart body and soul Still precisely because a Christian lie in-
volves the whole person there is a place or the mind and thus or reason
evidence and logic
Finally a ew words are called or regarding a concept that will play a
key role in what ollows probability Everyone has many belies but some
o those belies are held more confidently than others For example I be-
lieve that Irsquoll still be alive twenty-our hours rom now Irsquom not absolutely
certain I will be but nonetheless I do believe it I also believe Irsquoll be alive
twenty-our days rom now But Irsquom less confident in this belie than in my
belie about being alive twenty-our hours rom now How about twenty-
our years rom now In my case I wouldnrsquot say that I believe Irsquoll be alive
twenty-our years rom now I also donrsquot believe I wonrsquot be alive twenty-
our years rom nowmdashtherersquos just not enough inormation to orm a belie
one way or the other
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Introduction 852017852023
Philosophers sometimes use the language o ldquolevels o confidencerdquo when
discussing belies and probability Levels o confidence come in a scale rom
zero to one (or 983088 percent to 983089983088983088 percent) o be absolutely certain o some-thing (eg 983089 + 983089 = 1048626) is to assign it a level o confidence o 983089 o be absolutely
certain a claim is alse (eg 983089 + 983089 = 9830891048631) is to assign it a level o confidence o
983088 In such a situation one could say that the probability o the claim is 983088
percent Terersquos just no chance that yoursquove gotten conused and ldquo983089 + 983089 = 9830891048631rdquo
is really true What about a proposition like ldquothis normal penny will come
up heads when I flip itrdquo Here itrsquos reasonable to assign equal levels o confi-
dence both to this claim and to the claim that the penny will come up tailsSo wersquod assign both claims a level o confidence o 9830881048629 and we could say that
the chance the coin will be heads is 1048629983088 percent How confident am I that this
six-sided die will show either a 983089 or a 1048626 when I roll it 104862710486271048627 percent You get
the idea
Te word probability will come up ofen in this book Irsquoll sometimes also
talk about how likely something is or what the chance is that such-and-such
is true Unless otherwise noted these are all just different ways to talk aboutthe same thing what philosophers call epistemic probability Roughly the
epistemic probability o a proposition (that is a statement or a claim) is the
level o confidence itrsquos reasonable to assign to that proposition3
Probability evidence moral heroism commitment all o these actors
will enter into our discussion o the reasonableness o Christian theism But
enough with introductory matters On to deeper waters
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- Part One -
UNCERTAINTY
and
COMMITMENT
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- 983089 -
A CURIOUS OFFER
I983149983137983143983145983150983141 983156983144983137983156 983151983150983141 983140983137983161 you receive a phone call rom a abulously
wealthy individualmdashan eccentric billionaire known or spending his money
in odd and trivial ways He makes you a curious offer You are to determine
the religion you think most likely to be true and then practice that religion
devoutly attend religious services read the sacred scriptures o that religion
pray as that religion prescribes and live out the religionrsquos moral teachings
And he asks you to do this or the rest o your lie His part o the bargainwill be to place 983076983089983088 billion in an escrow account to be deliverable on your
death to whatever persons or causes you have named You can leave the
money to your amily or to a charitable organization or to scientific re-
search or any combination o the above whatever you think best I you
choose not to enter into the bargain he adds he will be using the money to
hire tens o thousands o artists to paint millions and millions o mediocre
oil paintings o his pet dog ScoutO course i this actually happened to you yoursquod be a mite skeptical But
imagine that afer due diligence you became convinced that this was no joke
And the billionaire clarified that you did not have to lie or otherwise mis-
represent yoursel in order to ulfill your side o the bargain I or example
you chose Christianity as the religion you thought most likely to be true you
would not have to recite the creed during the liturgy i you did not believe
it And your prayers could be conditional as in ldquoI yoursquore there God thank
you or this and please help me with thatrdquo An odd offer to be sure but also
in all probability the only chance yoursquoll ever have to direct 983076983089983088 billion o
wealth to persons or causes you care about So what would you do Would
you accept the offer
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Perhaps the act that the payoff is mere monetary gain gives you pause
Good or you to trade onersquos religious devotion or money would be base But
remember that you can name whatever beneficiary yoursquod like includingcharitable organizations that work with the poorest o the poor You can
trade your religious devotion or ood or the starving or education or
impoverished children in the developing world On board yet Say that the
billionaire adds that he doesnrsquot want to make this offer i you already happen
to be certain or almost certain that God does not exist His offer is only or
people who can say o some particular religion that there is at least a decent
chance that it is trueNow consider an alternative scenario Suppose that rom the get-go the
billionaire had offered you a different bargain the payoff is not a guaranteed
983076983089983088 billion but a 1048629983088 percent shot at 983076983089983088983088 billion Tat is suppose the bil-
lionairersquos side o the bargain is to put 983076983089983088983088 billion in an escrow account Ten
afer your death a air coin will be flipped I it comes up heads the entire
983076983089983088983088 billion will be given to your named beneficiary or beneficiaries I tails
then wersquoll have a lot o pictures o Scout Would you accept this offerHold on to that thought
Te overarching question o this book is the question o whether there is
good reason to make a serious commitment to living a Christian lie In part
two wersquoll take a tour o the evidence or Christianity But beore that the
question to ask first is ldquoHow much evidence would be required to make a
Christian commitment reasonablerdquo As Irsquoll try to show here in part one a
serious Christian commitment is recommended by reason even i there is
as little as a 1048629983088 percent chance that Christianity is true In other words i
you are willing to grant that Christianity is at least as likely as not then it is
rational or you to commit to living a devout Christian lie Indeed i yoursquore
in ordinary circumstances it is irrational or you not to1
P983137983155983139983137983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
Te argument Irsquoll give or this conclusion has its roots in the reflections o
seventeenth-century polymath Blaise Pascal Pascal made important contri-
butions in mathematics probability theory and physics His work on fluid
mechanics was instrumental in the later invention o the hydraulic press
and he himsel designed and built one o the first mechanical calculating
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A Curious Of fer 852018852019
machines an early precursor to the digital computer (Interestingly the
principles used in the machine are still employed in many automobile
odometers) Pascal was an inventor an intellectual and a scientist He wasalso a deeply religious man At the age o thirty-one he had a powerul mys-
tical experience o God He described the experience in a note and stitched
the note into his coat keeping it close to him He evidently transerred the
paper note (together with a cleaner copy he put down on parchment) rom
coat to coat or the rest o his liemdasha servant ound them afer his death
Pascal suffered rom ill health dying at only thirty-nine In his final years
he was drafing a work o apologetics Te disorganized ragments that werehis notes or the project were published posthumously and quickly became
a classic Pascalrsquos Pensees (French or ldquothoughtsrdquo)2 In one o those ragments
Pascal gives an argument not or the theoretical conclusion that God exists
but or the practical conclusion that one should live a devout Christian lie
Te argument is addressed to those who arenrsquot sure whether Christianity is
true or alse and has come to be known as Pascalrsquos wager o be precise the
ragment contains the seeds o our different arguments in support o reli-gious commitment3 Te strongest version comes down to this It is rational
to seek a relationship with God and live a deeply Christian lie because there
is very much to gain and relatively little to lose In chapter two Irsquoll present a
strengthened and expanded version o this argument I Christianity is
indeed true then by committing to live a Christian lie one brings great joy
to God and all others in heaven raises the chance that one will be with God
orever raises the chance that one will help others attain union with God
expresses gratitude to God and becomes more aware o Godrsquos love and more
receptive to his help in the course o onersquos earthly lie On the other hand i
Christianity is alse the person who commits his or her lie to Jesusrsquo teachings
has still lived a worthwhile lie striving or moral excellence and experi-
encing the benefits o religious community (benefits that contemporary
sociological research reveals to be significant)
Pascalrsquos pragmatic argument in support o religious commitment has had
its share o critics Tus the amous English philosopher G E Moore ldquo[Con-
cerning Pascalrsquos claim that] in our state o doubt we should decide or that
belie which promises the greater reward I have nothing to say o it except
that it seems to me absolutely wickedrdquo4 Voltaire thought the wager was
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ldquosomewhat indecent and childish Te idea o gaming o losing or winning
is quite unsuitable to the dignity o the subjectrdquo5 In much the same vein an
earlier French critic had complained ldquoI lose patience listening to youtreating the highest o all matters and resting the most important truth in
the world the source o all truths on an idea so base and puerile on a com-
parison with a game o heads and tails more productive o mirth than per-
suasionrdquo6 More recently Christopher Hitchens sees Pascalrsquos theology as ldquonot
ar short o sordidrdquo7 remarking that ldquoPascal reminds me o the hypocrites
and rauds who abound in almudic Jewish rationalization Donrsquot do any
work on the Sabbath yoursel but pay someone else to do it You obeyed theletter o the law whorsquos countingrdquo8
Are these objections air Mathematician James Franklin suggests that
Pascalrsquos actual view is ofen replaced with an unflattering caricature o the
wager Franklin contrasts these two views
What Pascal said You have to choose whether to accept religion Tink o it
as a coin toss where you donrsquot know the outcome In this case i you losemdash
therersquos no Godmdashyou have not lost much But i you win there is an infinitepayoff So you should go to Mass and pray or aith [Franklinrsquos paraphrase]
Pascal caricatured Being base and greedy we want lots o goodies in this
lie and i possible the next So we are prepared to give up some pleasures
now on the off chance o a lot more later i our eye to the main chance makes
it look worth our while Since the loot on offer is infinite even a small chance
o raking it in makes it worth a try to grovel to any deity that might do what
we want9
Franklin makes a good point Pascalrsquos argument is ofen interpreted in
the worst possible light Still there are legitimate objections to consider
even when Pascalrsquos reasoning is interpreted airly It may be that it is im-
moral to allow any considerations about cost and benefit to affect what we
believe Perhaps a respect or truth requires that our belies be determined
by evidence and evidence alone Second we must consider whether the
costs o committing to God are simply too high And perhaps the most
common criticism is that Pascal illicitly assumed there were only two op-
tions to consider atheism and (Catholic) Christianity Te many gods ob-
jection as itrsquos ofen called contends that the multitude o possibly true reli-
gions makes trouble or Pascal
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A Curious Of fer 852018852021
In chapters three and our Irsquoll elaborate on these and additional objec-
tions and respond to them But first we need to lay the basic argument
out on the table in more detail and with greater precision In order togive the strongest argument possible Irsquoll set aside the analysis o Pascalrsquos
text and instead develop a Pascalian argument in my own way10 Just or
the sake o having a handy title Irsquoll reer to my argument as ldquothe wagerrdquo
or even ldquoPascalrsquos wagerrdquo but this title should be taken merely as a re-
erence to its original inspiration not as a claim that I am providing a
verbatim reproduction o Pascalrsquos thought Indeed the wager Irsquoll present
takes advantage o cutting-edge work in philosophy and psychology andrecent sociological data unavailable to Pascal and it is thereore able to
greatly improve on his rather sketchy note Since itrsquos impossible to explain
the wager clearly without using some concepts rom decision theory
thatrsquos where wersquoll begin
D983141983139983145983155983145983151983150 T983144983141983151983154983161
Decision theory is about how to make good decisions in circumstances orisk or uncertainty Tree concepts are especially important states strat-
egies and outcomes A state is a possible way things might be (it will rain
today or it wonrsquot rain today) a strategy is a possible action the decider
might take (bring my umbrella or leave it at home) An outcome is a situ-
ation that results when a given strategy is taken and a certain state is actual
(eg the situation o being stuck in the rain without an umbrella) In order
to assess the suitability o the various available strategies the decision
maker attempts to orm a judgment about how valuable the various out-
comes are
For example suppose I offer you a bet I ask a trusted third party to flip
a air coin but not to tell us whether it lands heads or tails Ten I ask you
to decide either to play (that is participate in the bet) or pass I you choose
to play it will cost you one dollar but i you play and the coin has come up
heads you will get your dollar back and I will pay you two more dollars so
you will be up two dollars I you choose to play and the coin comes up tails
however I will keep your dollar so you will be down one dollar I on the
other hand you choose to pass no money will change hands either way
Would you take my bet
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I bet you would Decision theory allows us to say precisely why the bet is
avorable or you Tere are two possible states or you to consider it could
be that the coin has come up heads and it could be that it has come up tailsAt the time you make your decision you donrsquot know which state is the actual
way things are but you do know that itrsquos one or the other Next there are
two possible strategies you can adopt play or pass Corresponding to the
our possible combinations o these states and strategies there are our pos-
sible situations that may resultmdashthese are the outcomes (983089) you play the
game and the coin is heads and so you win two dollars (1048626) you play the
game and the coin is tails so you lose one dollar (1048627) you pass and the coinis heads so you neither gain nor lose and (1048628) you pass and the coin is tails
so you neither gain nor lose In considering the question o what to do the
decision maker is invited to evaluate the outcomes Tat is the decision
maker attempts to estimate how valuable the various outcomes are In this
case the monetary value o outcome 983089 or you is two dollars or outcome 1048626
it is minus one dollar and or outcomes 1048627 and 1048628 zero In the case o most
actual decisions values other than money are at stake But starting with an
example using money is a good way to get an initial grasp o decision theory
Decision theorists commonly use a ldquodecision matrixrdquo to sum up inor-
mation relevant to a decision In our case we need a two-by-two matrix Te
columns correspond to the two possible states o the world and the rows
correspond to the two strategies you might take In the cells we write down
the valuations o the resulting outcomes
Heads Tails
PlayOutcome 1
$2Outcome 2
$-1
PassOutcome 3
$0Outcome 4
$0
Figure 983089983089
Should you play or pass I you only had one dollar to your name and
needed it to buy ood lest you starve then it might not be wise to play But
i yoursquore in ordinary circumstances and the loss o a dollar would be no great
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A Curious Of fer 852018852023
loss then itrsquos rational to play Intuitively this is because yoursquove got an equal
chance o gaining and losing and i you gain you gain twice what you would
lose i you lost More precisely itrsquos because the expected value o playing ishigher than the expected value o passing Te expected value o a strategy
or a given game or bet is the average value per game that would accrue to
you i you played the game an infinite number o times and adopted that
strategy every time Here the expected value o the strategy ldquoplayrdquo can be
calculated by multiplying the probability o each state by the value o its
corresponding outcome and adding up the products So the expected value
o ldquoplayrdquo is equal to
(frac12) times (1048626) + (frac12) times (minus983089) = 1048629983088
I you were offered this bet a large number o times and you chose ldquoplayrdquo
every time yoursquod win an average o about fify cents per game Te expected
value o passing by contrast is
(frac12) times (983088) + (frac12) times (983088) = 983088
One reason playing is a good bet here is that the expected value o playing
(fify cents) is more than the expected value o passing (zero cents) Now as
it turns out itrsquos not always rational to take the strategy that maximizes onersquos
expected value11 But maximizing expected value is ofen a good way to
make decisions that involve risk
For the sake o clarity Irsquove illustrated the concepts o a state a strategy an
outcome and a decision matrix by giving an example with precise monetary
values or outcomes and with definite probabilities assigned to the possiblestates in question In real lie we usually donrsquot have precise probabilities to
assign to the states and much (perhaps most) o what we care about canrsquot
be valued in monetary terms Even in such cases however there are prin-
ciples that can guide our decision making
One such principle is at play when we say things like ldquoIrsquoll do X because it
canrsquot hurt and it might helprdquo or ldquoYou should do Y because therersquos nothing to
lose and maybe a lot to gainrdquo Suppose yoursquove borrowed your riendrsquos bicycleand have cycled to a store on the edge o town You put the lock around the
bike and a parking sign and as yoursquore lifing the key to lock up the bike it
occurs to you that this part o town is very sae and therersquos hardly any chance
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the bike will be stolen Besides when yoursquore inside the bike will be in your
view through the store window As you finish thinking this yoursquove also just
put the key into the lock So should you lock up the bike You donrsquot have anyprecise knowledge about the probability o thef in the circumstances and
while you could estimate the value o the bike therersquos no obvious way to
calculate the disvalue your riend would experience i your negligence got his
bike stolen Despite your lack o knowledge on those points though itrsquos clear
enough what you should do all you have to do to lock the bike is turn your
wrist A decision theorist could map out your situation like this
A thief will happen by A thief wont happen by
Lock Nothing bad happens Nothing bad happens
Dontlock
Bike stolen (probably) Nothing bad happens
Figure 983089 983090
I a motivated capable thie is in act coming along the strategy o locking
will result in a ar better outcome while i such a thie wonrsquot happen by locking
is no worse than unlocking (by the time o your decision itrsquos just so easy to
lock that therersquos no cost to locking) In the language o game theory we say
that the strategy o locking ldquoweakly dominatesrdquo the strategy o not locking
One strategy weakly dominates another i (and only i) there is at least one
possible state o the world on which the first strategy delivers a better outcome
than the second and there are no possible states o the world on which the
first strategy delivers a worse outcome than second In other words depending
on how things turn out adopting a weakly dominant strategy will either end
up yielding a better result than adopting the other strategy would have or it
will end up yielding a result that is just as good as what yoursquod have gotten with
the other strategy In a situation o uncertainty when we donrsquot know which o
several possible states o the world is the true one it is always better to adopt
a weakly dominant strategy instead o the strategy it dominates
In case yoursquore wondering one strategy strongly dominates another
strategy i and only i it delivers a better outcome on every possible state o
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A Curious Of fer 8520181048633
the world O course strongly dominant strategies are even more preerable
than weakly dominant strategies when you can get them
Decision theorists have other principles to help guide us in uncertaintyBut itrsquos worth noting that in some cases we donrsquot need a general principle
Sometimes we can just see what the smart thing to do is especially i wersquove
laid out the inormation in a decision matrix For example suppose again
that a trusted third party flips a coin or us but doesnrsquot say whether it lands
heads or tails Now imagine that I credibly make you this offer i you choose
to play and itrsquos heads then Irsquoll give you a million dollars while yoursquoll owe
me one dollar i itrsquos tails and yoursquove chosen to play I you choose to pass nomoney is exchanged either way We could represent this with the matrix
Heads Tails
PlayOutcome 1
$1000000Outcome 2
$-1
PassOutcome 3
$0Outcome 4
$0
Figure 983089 983091
Here we canrsquot say that playing weakly dominates passing because i the
coin is tails you do slightly better by passing But itrsquos one dollar wersquore talking
about Strictly speaking playing is not a weakly dominant strategy here but
itrsquos close enough Te payoff is so much greater i the coin is heads and the
loss is so little i itrsquos tails that itrsquos clearly rational to play Perhaps we couldstate a precise universally valid principle that would apply in this case and
tell us what to do but we donrsquot really need one we can just see what the
smart move is Tis insight will prove helpul later on
With these preliminaries behind us we can now turn to the wager A
consideration o this argument will allow us to see that Christian com-
mitment is recommended by reason so long as the available evidence makes
it at least as likely as not that the central claims o Christianity are true
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James asks us to consider a man who hesitates ldquoindefinitely to ask a certain
woman to marry him because he [is] not perectly sure that she would
prove [to be] an angel afer he brought her home Would he not cut himseloff rom that particular angel-possibility as decisively as i he went and
married some one elserdquo1 In the area o romantic love it can be reasonable
to invest deeply in a relationship and eventually make a lielong com-
mitment to the beloved despite the absence o airtight evidence that the
marriage will be a happy one Because there is so much at stake it can be
reasonable to make a commitment to a personal relationship even when
absolute certainty proves elusive Applying this to the question o Godeven i the evidence or God lef some room or doubt considerations
about the possible value o a relationship with God might avor the decision
to make a religious commitment
Seventeenth-century French mathematician and theologian Blaise Pascal
gave an argument that expands on this insight Pascalrsquos wager as the ar-
gument has come to be known addresses those who arenrsquot sure whether
Christianity is true but think that it might be true Te argument can besummed up in a single sentence It is rational to seek a relationship with God
and live a deeply Christian lie because there is very much to gain and rela-
tively little to lose
As the wager is usually presented whatrsquos to gain is eternal happiness or
the wagerer An alternative and more powerul version o the argument
however ocuses not just on sel-interest but also on goods that go beyond
sel-interest I one commits to God and God does in act exist one brings
joy to God and one is better able to help others attain union with God And
i Jesus really is who he claimed to be we may even have a moral duty to
commit to living a Christian lie I Christianity is true we have a duty to
love God and have been called by God himsel who has given us everything
good that we have to live a deeply religious lie More than just sel-interest
can motivate one to take the wager
On the other hand i Christianity is alse the committed Christian has
still lived a meaningul lie has pursued moral excellence and has enjoyed
the many empirically well-attested benefits o belonging to a religious com-
munity Much to gain relatively little to lose
In part one o this book (chapters one through our) Irsquoll present an updated
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Introduction 852017852019
version o Pascalrsquos wager strengthened by cutting-edge research rom psy-
chologists sociologists and philosophers Afer introducing and laying out
the basic argument in chapters one and two I turn to objections to the wagerin chapters three and our Tese include the objections that committing to
God on the basis o pragmatic considerations is immoral that the cost o
religious commitment is too high that the existence o religions other than
Christianity nullifies the argument and that Christian doctrine itsel casts
doubt on the wager When addressing this last issue I discuss grace ree will
and predestination
In part two (chapters five through twelve) Irsquoll take a careul look at argu-ments or the existence o God and the truth o Christianity showing howmdash
once we no longer demand certaintymdashthe available evidence is sufficient to
make serious Christian commitment entirely reasonable ogether parts
one and two present the bookrsquos main argument which can be summarized
as ollows
I Christianity has at least a 1048629983088 percent chance o being true then it is rational
to commit to living a Christian lie (the conclusion o part one)
Christianity does have at least a 1048629983088 percent chance o being true (the con-
clusion o part two)
Tus it is rational to commit to living a Christian lie
Te argument o part two proceeds in two stages First I present evidence
or theism (the view that there is a God) second I present evidence or the
more specific view o Christian theism I begin by asking the question o whyphysical reality exists at all Chapter five argues that there is at least one nec-
essarily existing being which explains the existence o contingent beings
(Contingent beings are things that reality didnrsquot have to include like all the
physical objects we see around us) Chapters six through eight then provide
an argument that the cause o physical reality is an intelligent being In the
last several decades mainstream physicists and astronomers have come to
realize that the lie-permitting character o our universe is balanced on a
kniersquos edge i several eatures had been ever-so-slightly different rom what
they in act are then stable sel-reproducing lie would not have been able
to arise Chapter six introduces some o the scientific evidence or this con-
clusion and gives a preliminary statement o what has come to be known as
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852017852020 983137983147983145 983150983143 P983137983155983139983137 983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
the fine-tuning argument Tis argument has been summarized or non-
specialists in several places but not always with enough rigor and back-
ground or the strength o the case to be ully displayed In chapter seven Iexplain the parts o probability theory required to appreciate the power o
the evidence that our universe is the product o an intelligence Chapter eight
contains an original reply to the strongest alternative to design the multi-
verse hypothesis (Tis is the hypothesis that our universe is just one o a vast
number o universes most o which are not lie permitting) aken together
chapters five through eight provide evidence or God drawing on the best
recent research but written so as to be accessible to the general readerIn chapter nine I turn to specifically Christian doctrines suggesting that
the beauty and existential resonance o Christianity are clues to its truth
Chapter ten concerns the two most powerul arguments against theism the
argument rom divine hiddenness and the argument rom evil (As argu-
ments against all orms o theism they are arguments against Christian
theism as well) Tese topics deserve not a single chapter but whole books
o their own And they have them So in chapter ten I summarize what I taketo be the strongest replies to the arguments rom hiddenness and evil o-
cusing on the recent work o Peter van Inwagen and Eleonore Stump Finally
in chapters eleven and twelve I turn to arguments or the resurrection o
Jesus Tis is just one o many Christian doctrines o course but logically
speaking it holds a special place I one has reason to believe that Jesus rose
rom the dead then one has reason to believe that Jesusrsquo teachings have
the divine stamp o approval and are thereore true So an argument or the
resurrection is an argument or the truth o Christianity (or at least the
larger part o one) In this pair o chapters I draw on the most recent work
on the issue by historians theologians and philosophers While I think that
the evidence o part two is by itsel sufficient to justiy belie in Christianity
agreement on this point is not required or the main argument o the book
to succeed For given the argument o part one all that is required or a
demonstration o the rationality o Christian commitment is that the evi-
dence render Christianity at least as likely as not
Itrsquos sometimes said that the longest distance in the world is the distance
rom the head to the heart And so in part three Irsquoll try to illustrate how a
lie o Christian commitment is not just reasonable but worth desiring as
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Introduction 852017852021
wellmdashsatisying both the head and the heart o do this Irsquoll tell the stories
o three exemplary individuals who took Jesus up on his invitation to ollow
him Te lives o these individuals were enriched and in turn enrichedcountless others in ways all o us would want to be true or our own lives
Dietrich Bonhoeffer Jean Vanier and Immaculeacutee Ilibagiza show how heroic
noble and beautiul a Christian lie can be Jesus said ldquoI came that they may
have lie and have it abundantlyrdquo (Jn 983089983088983089983088) Te abundance that so ofen
characterizes a devout Christian lie is not a matter o external goods or
material wealth but is internal and spiritual flowing rom a close personal
relationship with God Lie ocused on God offers comort inspiration anda peace that the vicissitudes o ortune need never take away
Te landscape o academic philosophy has changed significantly in the
last orty or fify years In the 983089983088s and rsquo1048631983088s it was taken or granted in many
philosophical circles that traditional Christian belie is unjustified and ir-
rational Tanks to the work o philosophers such as Alvin Plantinga
Eleonore Stump Peter van Inwagen and Richard Swinburne things have
changed
2
Recent decades have been a time o enormous productivity orphilosophers deending the rationality o Christian aith answering objec-
tions to Christian doctrines improving traditional arguments or the exis-
tence o God and ormulating new ones In the pages that ollow Irsquoll explore
some o the most important results o this body o work Irsquove written this
book though without presupposing that the reader has had ormal training
in philosophy or theology My hope is that it will be useul or anyone who
is interested in the evidence or God or the evidence or Christianity more
particularly I also hope that college students in philosophy and theology
courses will find the material worthwhile
Since this book is about evidence and reasons or religious belie itrsquos
worth addressing at the outset the question o why people believe what they
do on religious issues Isnrsquot religion a matter o the heart Does anyone really
believe on the basis o logic or argument Many committed Christians be-
lieve in God not primarily because o argument but because o experiencemdash
they have an intuitive sense o Godrsquos presence Perhaps not all the time but
certainly much o the time it just seems that God is there aware o what we
do and think Tis is how it is in my own case But what i you donrsquot happen
to have such an experience yoursel Or what i you have it occasionally but
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it is fleeting and open to serious doubt In those cases it makes good sense
to spend some time examining arguments and publicly available evidence
relating to questions about God and religion According to Christianityaith is a gif But or the person who does not have aith a careul look at
arguments or (and against) Christianity is a natural and reasonable step to
take Examination o evidence can also be worthwhile or the person who
does have aith but has doubts too In what ollows I give an extended
presentation o evidence or the truth o Christianity and a rigorous ar-
gument or the reasonableness o Christian commitment
While this book will ocus on the rational case or Christianity itrsquos im-portant to acknowledge that there are many actors involved in a decision
to commit to a Christian way o lie actors that go beyond impersonal
philosophical reasoning Onersquos upbringing onersquos experiences with indi-
vidual Christians the attitudes and views o onersquos closest riends and amily
onersquos emotional lie onersquos deep-seated hopes and ears and onersquos own par-
ticular way o viewing the worldmdashall o these come into play when one
encounters the message o Jesus I believe that the philosophical argumen-tation contained in this book will be helpul to many people but philo-
sophical argumentation is only one part o a larger picture When it comes
to religion logic may or may not be where one starts but itrsquos certainly not
where one should end Living a Christian lie is an act o the whole personmdash
mind and heart body and soul Still precisely because a Christian lie in-
volves the whole person there is a place or the mind and thus or reason
evidence and logic
Finally a ew words are called or regarding a concept that will play a
key role in what ollows probability Everyone has many belies but some
o those belies are held more confidently than others For example I be-
lieve that Irsquoll still be alive twenty-our hours rom now Irsquom not absolutely
certain I will be but nonetheless I do believe it I also believe Irsquoll be alive
twenty-our days rom now But Irsquom less confident in this belie than in my
belie about being alive twenty-our hours rom now How about twenty-
our years rom now In my case I wouldnrsquot say that I believe Irsquoll be alive
twenty-our years rom now I also donrsquot believe I wonrsquot be alive twenty-
our years rom nowmdashtherersquos just not enough inormation to orm a belie
one way or the other
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Introduction 852017852023
Philosophers sometimes use the language o ldquolevels o confidencerdquo when
discussing belies and probability Levels o confidence come in a scale rom
zero to one (or 983088 percent to 983089983088983088 percent) o be absolutely certain o some-thing (eg 983089 + 983089 = 1048626) is to assign it a level o confidence o 983089 o be absolutely
certain a claim is alse (eg 983089 + 983089 = 9830891048631) is to assign it a level o confidence o
983088 In such a situation one could say that the probability o the claim is 983088
percent Terersquos just no chance that yoursquove gotten conused and ldquo983089 + 983089 = 9830891048631rdquo
is really true What about a proposition like ldquothis normal penny will come
up heads when I flip itrdquo Here itrsquos reasonable to assign equal levels o confi-
dence both to this claim and to the claim that the penny will come up tailsSo wersquod assign both claims a level o confidence o 9830881048629 and we could say that
the chance the coin will be heads is 1048629983088 percent How confident am I that this
six-sided die will show either a 983089 or a 1048626 when I roll it 104862710486271048627 percent You get
the idea
Te word probability will come up ofen in this book Irsquoll sometimes also
talk about how likely something is or what the chance is that such-and-such
is true Unless otherwise noted these are all just different ways to talk aboutthe same thing what philosophers call epistemic probability Roughly the
epistemic probability o a proposition (that is a statement or a claim) is the
level o confidence itrsquos reasonable to assign to that proposition3
Probability evidence moral heroism commitment all o these actors
will enter into our discussion o the reasonableness o Christian theism But
enough with introductory matters On to deeper waters
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- Part One -
UNCERTAINTY
and
COMMITMENT
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- 983089 -
A CURIOUS OFFER
I983149983137983143983145983150983141 983156983144983137983156 983151983150983141 983140983137983161 you receive a phone call rom a abulously
wealthy individualmdashan eccentric billionaire known or spending his money
in odd and trivial ways He makes you a curious offer You are to determine
the religion you think most likely to be true and then practice that religion
devoutly attend religious services read the sacred scriptures o that religion
pray as that religion prescribes and live out the religionrsquos moral teachings
And he asks you to do this or the rest o your lie His part o the bargainwill be to place 983076983089983088 billion in an escrow account to be deliverable on your
death to whatever persons or causes you have named You can leave the
money to your amily or to a charitable organization or to scientific re-
search or any combination o the above whatever you think best I you
choose not to enter into the bargain he adds he will be using the money to
hire tens o thousands o artists to paint millions and millions o mediocre
oil paintings o his pet dog ScoutO course i this actually happened to you yoursquod be a mite skeptical But
imagine that afer due diligence you became convinced that this was no joke
And the billionaire clarified that you did not have to lie or otherwise mis-
represent yoursel in order to ulfill your side o the bargain I or example
you chose Christianity as the religion you thought most likely to be true you
would not have to recite the creed during the liturgy i you did not believe
it And your prayers could be conditional as in ldquoI yoursquore there God thank
you or this and please help me with thatrdquo An odd offer to be sure but also
in all probability the only chance yoursquoll ever have to direct 983076983089983088 billion o
wealth to persons or causes you care about So what would you do Would
you accept the offer
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Perhaps the act that the payoff is mere monetary gain gives you pause
Good or you to trade onersquos religious devotion or money would be base But
remember that you can name whatever beneficiary yoursquod like includingcharitable organizations that work with the poorest o the poor You can
trade your religious devotion or ood or the starving or education or
impoverished children in the developing world On board yet Say that the
billionaire adds that he doesnrsquot want to make this offer i you already happen
to be certain or almost certain that God does not exist His offer is only or
people who can say o some particular religion that there is at least a decent
chance that it is trueNow consider an alternative scenario Suppose that rom the get-go the
billionaire had offered you a different bargain the payoff is not a guaranteed
983076983089983088 billion but a 1048629983088 percent shot at 983076983089983088983088 billion Tat is suppose the bil-
lionairersquos side o the bargain is to put 983076983089983088983088 billion in an escrow account Ten
afer your death a air coin will be flipped I it comes up heads the entire
983076983089983088983088 billion will be given to your named beneficiary or beneficiaries I tails
then wersquoll have a lot o pictures o Scout Would you accept this offerHold on to that thought
Te overarching question o this book is the question o whether there is
good reason to make a serious commitment to living a Christian lie In part
two wersquoll take a tour o the evidence or Christianity But beore that the
question to ask first is ldquoHow much evidence would be required to make a
Christian commitment reasonablerdquo As Irsquoll try to show here in part one a
serious Christian commitment is recommended by reason even i there is
as little as a 1048629983088 percent chance that Christianity is true In other words i
you are willing to grant that Christianity is at least as likely as not then it is
rational or you to commit to living a devout Christian lie Indeed i yoursquore
in ordinary circumstances it is irrational or you not to1
P983137983155983139983137983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
Te argument Irsquoll give or this conclusion has its roots in the reflections o
seventeenth-century polymath Blaise Pascal Pascal made important contri-
butions in mathematics probability theory and physics His work on fluid
mechanics was instrumental in the later invention o the hydraulic press
and he himsel designed and built one o the first mechanical calculating
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A Curious Of fer 852018852019
machines an early precursor to the digital computer (Interestingly the
principles used in the machine are still employed in many automobile
odometers) Pascal was an inventor an intellectual and a scientist He wasalso a deeply religious man At the age o thirty-one he had a powerul mys-
tical experience o God He described the experience in a note and stitched
the note into his coat keeping it close to him He evidently transerred the
paper note (together with a cleaner copy he put down on parchment) rom
coat to coat or the rest o his liemdasha servant ound them afer his death
Pascal suffered rom ill health dying at only thirty-nine In his final years
he was drafing a work o apologetics Te disorganized ragments that werehis notes or the project were published posthumously and quickly became
a classic Pascalrsquos Pensees (French or ldquothoughtsrdquo)2 In one o those ragments
Pascal gives an argument not or the theoretical conclusion that God exists
but or the practical conclusion that one should live a devout Christian lie
Te argument is addressed to those who arenrsquot sure whether Christianity is
true or alse and has come to be known as Pascalrsquos wager o be precise the
ragment contains the seeds o our different arguments in support o reli-gious commitment3 Te strongest version comes down to this It is rational
to seek a relationship with God and live a deeply Christian lie because there
is very much to gain and relatively little to lose In chapter two Irsquoll present a
strengthened and expanded version o this argument I Christianity is
indeed true then by committing to live a Christian lie one brings great joy
to God and all others in heaven raises the chance that one will be with God
orever raises the chance that one will help others attain union with God
expresses gratitude to God and becomes more aware o Godrsquos love and more
receptive to his help in the course o onersquos earthly lie On the other hand i
Christianity is alse the person who commits his or her lie to Jesusrsquo teachings
has still lived a worthwhile lie striving or moral excellence and experi-
encing the benefits o religious community (benefits that contemporary
sociological research reveals to be significant)
Pascalrsquos pragmatic argument in support o religious commitment has had
its share o critics Tus the amous English philosopher G E Moore ldquo[Con-
cerning Pascalrsquos claim that] in our state o doubt we should decide or that
belie which promises the greater reward I have nothing to say o it except
that it seems to me absolutely wickedrdquo4 Voltaire thought the wager was
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ldquosomewhat indecent and childish Te idea o gaming o losing or winning
is quite unsuitable to the dignity o the subjectrdquo5 In much the same vein an
earlier French critic had complained ldquoI lose patience listening to youtreating the highest o all matters and resting the most important truth in
the world the source o all truths on an idea so base and puerile on a com-
parison with a game o heads and tails more productive o mirth than per-
suasionrdquo6 More recently Christopher Hitchens sees Pascalrsquos theology as ldquonot
ar short o sordidrdquo7 remarking that ldquoPascal reminds me o the hypocrites
and rauds who abound in almudic Jewish rationalization Donrsquot do any
work on the Sabbath yoursel but pay someone else to do it You obeyed theletter o the law whorsquos countingrdquo8
Are these objections air Mathematician James Franklin suggests that
Pascalrsquos actual view is ofen replaced with an unflattering caricature o the
wager Franklin contrasts these two views
What Pascal said You have to choose whether to accept religion Tink o it
as a coin toss where you donrsquot know the outcome In this case i you losemdash
therersquos no Godmdashyou have not lost much But i you win there is an infinitepayoff So you should go to Mass and pray or aith [Franklinrsquos paraphrase]
Pascal caricatured Being base and greedy we want lots o goodies in this
lie and i possible the next So we are prepared to give up some pleasures
now on the off chance o a lot more later i our eye to the main chance makes
it look worth our while Since the loot on offer is infinite even a small chance
o raking it in makes it worth a try to grovel to any deity that might do what
we want9
Franklin makes a good point Pascalrsquos argument is ofen interpreted in
the worst possible light Still there are legitimate objections to consider
even when Pascalrsquos reasoning is interpreted airly It may be that it is im-
moral to allow any considerations about cost and benefit to affect what we
believe Perhaps a respect or truth requires that our belies be determined
by evidence and evidence alone Second we must consider whether the
costs o committing to God are simply too high And perhaps the most
common criticism is that Pascal illicitly assumed there were only two op-
tions to consider atheism and (Catholic) Christianity Te many gods ob-
jection as itrsquos ofen called contends that the multitude o possibly true reli-
gions makes trouble or Pascal
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A Curious Of fer 852018852021
In chapters three and our Irsquoll elaborate on these and additional objec-
tions and respond to them But first we need to lay the basic argument
out on the table in more detail and with greater precision In order togive the strongest argument possible Irsquoll set aside the analysis o Pascalrsquos
text and instead develop a Pascalian argument in my own way10 Just or
the sake o having a handy title Irsquoll reer to my argument as ldquothe wagerrdquo
or even ldquoPascalrsquos wagerrdquo but this title should be taken merely as a re-
erence to its original inspiration not as a claim that I am providing a
verbatim reproduction o Pascalrsquos thought Indeed the wager Irsquoll present
takes advantage o cutting-edge work in philosophy and psychology andrecent sociological data unavailable to Pascal and it is thereore able to
greatly improve on his rather sketchy note Since itrsquos impossible to explain
the wager clearly without using some concepts rom decision theory
thatrsquos where wersquoll begin
D983141983139983145983155983145983151983150 T983144983141983151983154983161
Decision theory is about how to make good decisions in circumstances orisk or uncertainty Tree concepts are especially important states strat-
egies and outcomes A state is a possible way things might be (it will rain
today or it wonrsquot rain today) a strategy is a possible action the decider
might take (bring my umbrella or leave it at home) An outcome is a situ-
ation that results when a given strategy is taken and a certain state is actual
(eg the situation o being stuck in the rain without an umbrella) In order
to assess the suitability o the various available strategies the decision
maker attempts to orm a judgment about how valuable the various out-
comes are
For example suppose I offer you a bet I ask a trusted third party to flip
a air coin but not to tell us whether it lands heads or tails Ten I ask you
to decide either to play (that is participate in the bet) or pass I you choose
to play it will cost you one dollar but i you play and the coin has come up
heads you will get your dollar back and I will pay you two more dollars so
you will be up two dollars I you choose to play and the coin comes up tails
however I will keep your dollar so you will be down one dollar I on the
other hand you choose to pass no money will change hands either way
Would you take my bet
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I bet you would Decision theory allows us to say precisely why the bet is
avorable or you Tere are two possible states or you to consider it could
be that the coin has come up heads and it could be that it has come up tailsAt the time you make your decision you donrsquot know which state is the actual
way things are but you do know that itrsquos one or the other Next there are
two possible strategies you can adopt play or pass Corresponding to the
our possible combinations o these states and strategies there are our pos-
sible situations that may resultmdashthese are the outcomes (983089) you play the
game and the coin is heads and so you win two dollars (1048626) you play the
game and the coin is tails so you lose one dollar (1048627) you pass and the coinis heads so you neither gain nor lose and (1048628) you pass and the coin is tails
so you neither gain nor lose In considering the question o what to do the
decision maker is invited to evaluate the outcomes Tat is the decision
maker attempts to estimate how valuable the various outcomes are In this
case the monetary value o outcome 983089 or you is two dollars or outcome 1048626
it is minus one dollar and or outcomes 1048627 and 1048628 zero In the case o most
actual decisions values other than money are at stake But starting with an
example using money is a good way to get an initial grasp o decision theory
Decision theorists commonly use a ldquodecision matrixrdquo to sum up inor-
mation relevant to a decision In our case we need a two-by-two matrix Te
columns correspond to the two possible states o the world and the rows
correspond to the two strategies you might take In the cells we write down
the valuations o the resulting outcomes
Heads Tails
PlayOutcome 1
$2Outcome 2
$-1
PassOutcome 3
$0Outcome 4
$0
Figure 983089983089
Should you play or pass I you only had one dollar to your name and
needed it to buy ood lest you starve then it might not be wise to play But
i yoursquore in ordinary circumstances and the loss o a dollar would be no great
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A Curious Of fer 852018852023
loss then itrsquos rational to play Intuitively this is because yoursquove got an equal
chance o gaining and losing and i you gain you gain twice what you would
lose i you lost More precisely itrsquos because the expected value o playing ishigher than the expected value o passing Te expected value o a strategy
or a given game or bet is the average value per game that would accrue to
you i you played the game an infinite number o times and adopted that
strategy every time Here the expected value o the strategy ldquoplayrdquo can be
calculated by multiplying the probability o each state by the value o its
corresponding outcome and adding up the products So the expected value
o ldquoplayrdquo is equal to
(frac12) times (1048626) + (frac12) times (minus983089) = 1048629983088
I you were offered this bet a large number o times and you chose ldquoplayrdquo
every time yoursquod win an average o about fify cents per game Te expected
value o passing by contrast is
(frac12) times (983088) + (frac12) times (983088) = 983088
One reason playing is a good bet here is that the expected value o playing
(fify cents) is more than the expected value o passing (zero cents) Now as
it turns out itrsquos not always rational to take the strategy that maximizes onersquos
expected value11 But maximizing expected value is ofen a good way to
make decisions that involve risk
For the sake o clarity Irsquove illustrated the concepts o a state a strategy an
outcome and a decision matrix by giving an example with precise monetary
values or outcomes and with definite probabilities assigned to the possiblestates in question In real lie we usually donrsquot have precise probabilities to
assign to the states and much (perhaps most) o what we care about canrsquot
be valued in monetary terms Even in such cases however there are prin-
ciples that can guide our decision making
One such principle is at play when we say things like ldquoIrsquoll do X because it
canrsquot hurt and it might helprdquo or ldquoYou should do Y because therersquos nothing to
lose and maybe a lot to gainrdquo Suppose yoursquove borrowed your riendrsquos bicycleand have cycled to a store on the edge o town You put the lock around the
bike and a parking sign and as yoursquore lifing the key to lock up the bike it
occurs to you that this part o town is very sae and therersquos hardly any chance
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the bike will be stolen Besides when yoursquore inside the bike will be in your
view through the store window As you finish thinking this yoursquove also just
put the key into the lock So should you lock up the bike You donrsquot have anyprecise knowledge about the probability o thef in the circumstances and
while you could estimate the value o the bike therersquos no obvious way to
calculate the disvalue your riend would experience i your negligence got his
bike stolen Despite your lack o knowledge on those points though itrsquos clear
enough what you should do all you have to do to lock the bike is turn your
wrist A decision theorist could map out your situation like this
A thief will happen by A thief wont happen by
Lock Nothing bad happens Nothing bad happens
Dontlock
Bike stolen (probably) Nothing bad happens
Figure 983089 983090
I a motivated capable thie is in act coming along the strategy o locking
will result in a ar better outcome while i such a thie wonrsquot happen by locking
is no worse than unlocking (by the time o your decision itrsquos just so easy to
lock that therersquos no cost to locking) In the language o game theory we say
that the strategy o locking ldquoweakly dominatesrdquo the strategy o not locking
One strategy weakly dominates another i (and only i) there is at least one
possible state o the world on which the first strategy delivers a better outcome
than the second and there are no possible states o the world on which the
first strategy delivers a worse outcome than second In other words depending
on how things turn out adopting a weakly dominant strategy will either end
up yielding a better result than adopting the other strategy would have or it
will end up yielding a result that is just as good as what yoursquod have gotten with
the other strategy In a situation o uncertainty when we donrsquot know which o
several possible states o the world is the true one it is always better to adopt
a weakly dominant strategy instead o the strategy it dominates
In case yoursquore wondering one strategy strongly dominates another
strategy i and only i it delivers a better outcome on every possible state o
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A Curious Of fer 8520181048633
the world O course strongly dominant strategies are even more preerable
than weakly dominant strategies when you can get them
Decision theorists have other principles to help guide us in uncertaintyBut itrsquos worth noting that in some cases we donrsquot need a general principle
Sometimes we can just see what the smart thing to do is especially i wersquove
laid out the inormation in a decision matrix For example suppose again
that a trusted third party flips a coin or us but doesnrsquot say whether it lands
heads or tails Now imagine that I credibly make you this offer i you choose
to play and itrsquos heads then Irsquoll give you a million dollars while yoursquoll owe
me one dollar i itrsquos tails and yoursquove chosen to play I you choose to pass nomoney is exchanged either way We could represent this with the matrix
Heads Tails
PlayOutcome 1
$1000000Outcome 2
$-1
PassOutcome 3
$0Outcome 4
$0
Figure 983089 983091
Here we canrsquot say that playing weakly dominates passing because i the
coin is tails you do slightly better by passing But itrsquos one dollar wersquore talking
about Strictly speaking playing is not a weakly dominant strategy here but
itrsquos close enough Te payoff is so much greater i the coin is heads and the
loss is so little i itrsquos tails that itrsquos clearly rational to play Perhaps we couldstate a precise universally valid principle that would apply in this case and
tell us what to do but we donrsquot really need one we can just see what the
smart move is Tis insight will prove helpul later on
With these preliminaries behind us we can now turn to the wager A
consideration o this argument will allow us to see that Christian com-
mitment is recommended by reason so long as the available evidence makes
it at least as likely as not that the central claims o Christianity are true
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Introduction 852017852019
version o Pascalrsquos wager strengthened by cutting-edge research rom psy-
chologists sociologists and philosophers Afer introducing and laying out
the basic argument in chapters one and two I turn to objections to the wagerin chapters three and our Tese include the objections that committing to
God on the basis o pragmatic considerations is immoral that the cost o
religious commitment is too high that the existence o religions other than
Christianity nullifies the argument and that Christian doctrine itsel casts
doubt on the wager When addressing this last issue I discuss grace ree will
and predestination
In part two (chapters five through twelve) Irsquoll take a careul look at argu-ments or the existence o God and the truth o Christianity showing howmdash
once we no longer demand certaintymdashthe available evidence is sufficient to
make serious Christian commitment entirely reasonable ogether parts
one and two present the bookrsquos main argument which can be summarized
as ollows
I Christianity has at least a 1048629983088 percent chance o being true then it is rational
to commit to living a Christian lie (the conclusion o part one)
Christianity does have at least a 1048629983088 percent chance o being true (the con-
clusion o part two)
Tus it is rational to commit to living a Christian lie
Te argument o part two proceeds in two stages First I present evidence
or theism (the view that there is a God) second I present evidence or the
more specific view o Christian theism I begin by asking the question o whyphysical reality exists at all Chapter five argues that there is at least one nec-
essarily existing being which explains the existence o contingent beings
(Contingent beings are things that reality didnrsquot have to include like all the
physical objects we see around us) Chapters six through eight then provide
an argument that the cause o physical reality is an intelligent being In the
last several decades mainstream physicists and astronomers have come to
realize that the lie-permitting character o our universe is balanced on a
kniersquos edge i several eatures had been ever-so-slightly different rom what
they in act are then stable sel-reproducing lie would not have been able
to arise Chapter six introduces some o the scientific evidence or this con-
clusion and gives a preliminary statement o what has come to be known as
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852017852020 983137983147983145 983150983143 P983137983155983139983137 983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
the fine-tuning argument Tis argument has been summarized or non-
specialists in several places but not always with enough rigor and back-
ground or the strength o the case to be ully displayed In chapter seven Iexplain the parts o probability theory required to appreciate the power o
the evidence that our universe is the product o an intelligence Chapter eight
contains an original reply to the strongest alternative to design the multi-
verse hypothesis (Tis is the hypothesis that our universe is just one o a vast
number o universes most o which are not lie permitting) aken together
chapters five through eight provide evidence or God drawing on the best
recent research but written so as to be accessible to the general readerIn chapter nine I turn to specifically Christian doctrines suggesting that
the beauty and existential resonance o Christianity are clues to its truth
Chapter ten concerns the two most powerul arguments against theism the
argument rom divine hiddenness and the argument rom evil (As argu-
ments against all orms o theism they are arguments against Christian
theism as well) Tese topics deserve not a single chapter but whole books
o their own And they have them So in chapter ten I summarize what I taketo be the strongest replies to the arguments rom hiddenness and evil o-
cusing on the recent work o Peter van Inwagen and Eleonore Stump Finally
in chapters eleven and twelve I turn to arguments or the resurrection o
Jesus Tis is just one o many Christian doctrines o course but logically
speaking it holds a special place I one has reason to believe that Jesus rose
rom the dead then one has reason to believe that Jesusrsquo teachings have
the divine stamp o approval and are thereore true So an argument or the
resurrection is an argument or the truth o Christianity (or at least the
larger part o one) In this pair o chapters I draw on the most recent work
on the issue by historians theologians and philosophers While I think that
the evidence o part two is by itsel sufficient to justiy belie in Christianity
agreement on this point is not required or the main argument o the book
to succeed For given the argument o part one all that is required or a
demonstration o the rationality o Christian commitment is that the evi-
dence render Christianity at least as likely as not
Itrsquos sometimes said that the longest distance in the world is the distance
rom the head to the heart And so in part three Irsquoll try to illustrate how a
lie o Christian commitment is not just reasonable but worth desiring as
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Introduction 852017852021
wellmdashsatisying both the head and the heart o do this Irsquoll tell the stories
o three exemplary individuals who took Jesus up on his invitation to ollow
him Te lives o these individuals were enriched and in turn enrichedcountless others in ways all o us would want to be true or our own lives
Dietrich Bonhoeffer Jean Vanier and Immaculeacutee Ilibagiza show how heroic
noble and beautiul a Christian lie can be Jesus said ldquoI came that they may
have lie and have it abundantlyrdquo (Jn 983089983088983089983088) Te abundance that so ofen
characterizes a devout Christian lie is not a matter o external goods or
material wealth but is internal and spiritual flowing rom a close personal
relationship with God Lie ocused on God offers comort inspiration anda peace that the vicissitudes o ortune need never take away
Te landscape o academic philosophy has changed significantly in the
last orty or fify years In the 983089983088s and rsquo1048631983088s it was taken or granted in many
philosophical circles that traditional Christian belie is unjustified and ir-
rational Tanks to the work o philosophers such as Alvin Plantinga
Eleonore Stump Peter van Inwagen and Richard Swinburne things have
changed
2
Recent decades have been a time o enormous productivity orphilosophers deending the rationality o Christian aith answering objec-
tions to Christian doctrines improving traditional arguments or the exis-
tence o God and ormulating new ones In the pages that ollow Irsquoll explore
some o the most important results o this body o work Irsquove written this
book though without presupposing that the reader has had ormal training
in philosophy or theology My hope is that it will be useul or anyone who
is interested in the evidence or God or the evidence or Christianity more
particularly I also hope that college students in philosophy and theology
courses will find the material worthwhile
Since this book is about evidence and reasons or religious belie itrsquos
worth addressing at the outset the question o why people believe what they
do on religious issues Isnrsquot religion a matter o the heart Does anyone really
believe on the basis o logic or argument Many committed Christians be-
lieve in God not primarily because o argument but because o experiencemdash
they have an intuitive sense o Godrsquos presence Perhaps not all the time but
certainly much o the time it just seems that God is there aware o what we
do and think Tis is how it is in my own case But what i you donrsquot happen
to have such an experience yoursel Or what i you have it occasionally but
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it is fleeting and open to serious doubt In those cases it makes good sense
to spend some time examining arguments and publicly available evidence
relating to questions about God and religion According to Christianityaith is a gif But or the person who does not have aith a careul look at
arguments or (and against) Christianity is a natural and reasonable step to
take Examination o evidence can also be worthwhile or the person who
does have aith but has doubts too In what ollows I give an extended
presentation o evidence or the truth o Christianity and a rigorous ar-
gument or the reasonableness o Christian commitment
While this book will ocus on the rational case or Christianity itrsquos im-portant to acknowledge that there are many actors involved in a decision
to commit to a Christian way o lie actors that go beyond impersonal
philosophical reasoning Onersquos upbringing onersquos experiences with indi-
vidual Christians the attitudes and views o onersquos closest riends and amily
onersquos emotional lie onersquos deep-seated hopes and ears and onersquos own par-
ticular way o viewing the worldmdashall o these come into play when one
encounters the message o Jesus I believe that the philosophical argumen-tation contained in this book will be helpul to many people but philo-
sophical argumentation is only one part o a larger picture When it comes
to religion logic may or may not be where one starts but itrsquos certainly not
where one should end Living a Christian lie is an act o the whole personmdash
mind and heart body and soul Still precisely because a Christian lie in-
volves the whole person there is a place or the mind and thus or reason
evidence and logic
Finally a ew words are called or regarding a concept that will play a
key role in what ollows probability Everyone has many belies but some
o those belies are held more confidently than others For example I be-
lieve that Irsquoll still be alive twenty-our hours rom now Irsquom not absolutely
certain I will be but nonetheless I do believe it I also believe Irsquoll be alive
twenty-our days rom now But Irsquom less confident in this belie than in my
belie about being alive twenty-our hours rom now How about twenty-
our years rom now In my case I wouldnrsquot say that I believe Irsquoll be alive
twenty-our years rom now I also donrsquot believe I wonrsquot be alive twenty-
our years rom nowmdashtherersquos just not enough inormation to orm a belie
one way or the other
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Introduction 852017852023
Philosophers sometimes use the language o ldquolevels o confidencerdquo when
discussing belies and probability Levels o confidence come in a scale rom
zero to one (or 983088 percent to 983089983088983088 percent) o be absolutely certain o some-thing (eg 983089 + 983089 = 1048626) is to assign it a level o confidence o 983089 o be absolutely
certain a claim is alse (eg 983089 + 983089 = 9830891048631) is to assign it a level o confidence o
983088 In such a situation one could say that the probability o the claim is 983088
percent Terersquos just no chance that yoursquove gotten conused and ldquo983089 + 983089 = 9830891048631rdquo
is really true What about a proposition like ldquothis normal penny will come
up heads when I flip itrdquo Here itrsquos reasonable to assign equal levels o confi-
dence both to this claim and to the claim that the penny will come up tailsSo wersquod assign both claims a level o confidence o 9830881048629 and we could say that
the chance the coin will be heads is 1048629983088 percent How confident am I that this
six-sided die will show either a 983089 or a 1048626 when I roll it 104862710486271048627 percent You get
the idea
Te word probability will come up ofen in this book Irsquoll sometimes also
talk about how likely something is or what the chance is that such-and-such
is true Unless otherwise noted these are all just different ways to talk aboutthe same thing what philosophers call epistemic probability Roughly the
epistemic probability o a proposition (that is a statement or a claim) is the
level o confidence itrsquos reasonable to assign to that proposition3
Probability evidence moral heroism commitment all o these actors
will enter into our discussion o the reasonableness o Christian theism But
enough with introductory matters On to deeper waters
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- Part One -
UNCERTAINTY
and
COMMITMENT
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- 983089 -
A CURIOUS OFFER
I983149983137983143983145983150983141 983156983144983137983156 983151983150983141 983140983137983161 you receive a phone call rom a abulously
wealthy individualmdashan eccentric billionaire known or spending his money
in odd and trivial ways He makes you a curious offer You are to determine
the religion you think most likely to be true and then practice that religion
devoutly attend religious services read the sacred scriptures o that religion
pray as that religion prescribes and live out the religionrsquos moral teachings
And he asks you to do this or the rest o your lie His part o the bargainwill be to place 983076983089983088 billion in an escrow account to be deliverable on your
death to whatever persons or causes you have named You can leave the
money to your amily or to a charitable organization or to scientific re-
search or any combination o the above whatever you think best I you
choose not to enter into the bargain he adds he will be using the money to
hire tens o thousands o artists to paint millions and millions o mediocre
oil paintings o his pet dog ScoutO course i this actually happened to you yoursquod be a mite skeptical But
imagine that afer due diligence you became convinced that this was no joke
And the billionaire clarified that you did not have to lie or otherwise mis-
represent yoursel in order to ulfill your side o the bargain I or example
you chose Christianity as the religion you thought most likely to be true you
would not have to recite the creed during the liturgy i you did not believe
it And your prayers could be conditional as in ldquoI yoursquore there God thank
you or this and please help me with thatrdquo An odd offer to be sure but also
in all probability the only chance yoursquoll ever have to direct 983076983089983088 billion o
wealth to persons or causes you care about So what would you do Would
you accept the offer
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Perhaps the act that the payoff is mere monetary gain gives you pause
Good or you to trade onersquos religious devotion or money would be base But
remember that you can name whatever beneficiary yoursquod like includingcharitable organizations that work with the poorest o the poor You can
trade your religious devotion or ood or the starving or education or
impoverished children in the developing world On board yet Say that the
billionaire adds that he doesnrsquot want to make this offer i you already happen
to be certain or almost certain that God does not exist His offer is only or
people who can say o some particular religion that there is at least a decent
chance that it is trueNow consider an alternative scenario Suppose that rom the get-go the
billionaire had offered you a different bargain the payoff is not a guaranteed
983076983089983088 billion but a 1048629983088 percent shot at 983076983089983088983088 billion Tat is suppose the bil-
lionairersquos side o the bargain is to put 983076983089983088983088 billion in an escrow account Ten
afer your death a air coin will be flipped I it comes up heads the entire
983076983089983088983088 billion will be given to your named beneficiary or beneficiaries I tails
then wersquoll have a lot o pictures o Scout Would you accept this offerHold on to that thought
Te overarching question o this book is the question o whether there is
good reason to make a serious commitment to living a Christian lie In part
two wersquoll take a tour o the evidence or Christianity But beore that the
question to ask first is ldquoHow much evidence would be required to make a
Christian commitment reasonablerdquo As Irsquoll try to show here in part one a
serious Christian commitment is recommended by reason even i there is
as little as a 1048629983088 percent chance that Christianity is true In other words i
you are willing to grant that Christianity is at least as likely as not then it is
rational or you to commit to living a devout Christian lie Indeed i yoursquore
in ordinary circumstances it is irrational or you not to1
P983137983155983139983137983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
Te argument Irsquoll give or this conclusion has its roots in the reflections o
seventeenth-century polymath Blaise Pascal Pascal made important contri-
butions in mathematics probability theory and physics His work on fluid
mechanics was instrumental in the later invention o the hydraulic press
and he himsel designed and built one o the first mechanical calculating
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A Curious Of fer 852018852019
machines an early precursor to the digital computer (Interestingly the
principles used in the machine are still employed in many automobile
odometers) Pascal was an inventor an intellectual and a scientist He wasalso a deeply religious man At the age o thirty-one he had a powerul mys-
tical experience o God He described the experience in a note and stitched
the note into his coat keeping it close to him He evidently transerred the
paper note (together with a cleaner copy he put down on parchment) rom
coat to coat or the rest o his liemdasha servant ound them afer his death
Pascal suffered rom ill health dying at only thirty-nine In his final years
he was drafing a work o apologetics Te disorganized ragments that werehis notes or the project were published posthumously and quickly became
a classic Pascalrsquos Pensees (French or ldquothoughtsrdquo)2 In one o those ragments
Pascal gives an argument not or the theoretical conclusion that God exists
but or the practical conclusion that one should live a devout Christian lie
Te argument is addressed to those who arenrsquot sure whether Christianity is
true or alse and has come to be known as Pascalrsquos wager o be precise the
ragment contains the seeds o our different arguments in support o reli-gious commitment3 Te strongest version comes down to this It is rational
to seek a relationship with God and live a deeply Christian lie because there
is very much to gain and relatively little to lose In chapter two Irsquoll present a
strengthened and expanded version o this argument I Christianity is
indeed true then by committing to live a Christian lie one brings great joy
to God and all others in heaven raises the chance that one will be with God
orever raises the chance that one will help others attain union with God
expresses gratitude to God and becomes more aware o Godrsquos love and more
receptive to his help in the course o onersquos earthly lie On the other hand i
Christianity is alse the person who commits his or her lie to Jesusrsquo teachings
has still lived a worthwhile lie striving or moral excellence and experi-
encing the benefits o religious community (benefits that contemporary
sociological research reveals to be significant)
Pascalrsquos pragmatic argument in support o religious commitment has had
its share o critics Tus the amous English philosopher G E Moore ldquo[Con-
cerning Pascalrsquos claim that] in our state o doubt we should decide or that
belie which promises the greater reward I have nothing to say o it except
that it seems to me absolutely wickedrdquo4 Voltaire thought the wager was
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ldquosomewhat indecent and childish Te idea o gaming o losing or winning
is quite unsuitable to the dignity o the subjectrdquo5 In much the same vein an
earlier French critic had complained ldquoI lose patience listening to youtreating the highest o all matters and resting the most important truth in
the world the source o all truths on an idea so base and puerile on a com-
parison with a game o heads and tails more productive o mirth than per-
suasionrdquo6 More recently Christopher Hitchens sees Pascalrsquos theology as ldquonot
ar short o sordidrdquo7 remarking that ldquoPascal reminds me o the hypocrites
and rauds who abound in almudic Jewish rationalization Donrsquot do any
work on the Sabbath yoursel but pay someone else to do it You obeyed theletter o the law whorsquos countingrdquo8
Are these objections air Mathematician James Franklin suggests that
Pascalrsquos actual view is ofen replaced with an unflattering caricature o the
wager Franklin contrasts these two views
What Pascal said You have to choose whether to accept religion Tink o it
as a coin toss where you donrsquot know the outcome In this case i you losemdash
therersquos no Godmdashyou have not lost much But i you win there is an infinitepayoff So you should go to Mass and pray or aith [Franklinrsquos paraphrase]
Pascal caricatured Being base and greedy we want lots o goodies in this
lie and i possible the next So we are prepared to give up some pleasures
now on the off chance o a lot more later i our eye to the main chance makes
it look worth our while Since the loot on offer is infinite even a small chance
o raking it in makes it worth a try to grovel to any deity that might do what
we want9
Franklin makes a good point Pascalrsquos argument is ofen interpreted in
the worst possible light Still there are legitimate objections to consider
even when Pascalrsquos reasoning is interpreted airly It may be that it is im-
moral to allow any considerations about cost and benefit to affect what we
believe Perhaps a respect or truth requires that our belies be determined
by evidence and evidence alone Second we must consider whether the
costs o committing to God are simply too high And perhaps the most
common criticism is that Pascal illicitly assumed there were only two op-
tions to consider atheism and (Catholic) Christianity Te many gods ob-
jection as itrsquos ofen called contends that the multitude o possibly true reli-
gions makes trouble or Pascal
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A Curious Of fer 852018852021
In chapters three and our Irsquoll elaborate on these and additional objec-
tions and respond to them But first we need to lay the basic argument
out on the table in more detail and with greater precision In order togive the strongest argument possible Irsquoll set aside the analysis o Pascalrsquos
text and instead develop a Pascalian argument in my own way10 Just or
the sake o having a handy title Irsquoll reer to my argument as ldquothe wagerrdquo
or even ldquoPascalrsquos wagerrdquo but this title should be taken merely as a re-
erence to its original inspiration not as a claim that I am providing a
verbatim reproduction o Pascalrsquos thought Indeed the wager Irsquoll present
takes advantage o cutting-edge work in philosophy and psychology andrecent sociological data unavailable to Pascal and it is thereore able to
greatly improve on his rather sketchy note Since itrsquos impossible to explain
the wager clearly without using some concepts rom decision theory
thatrsquos where wersquoll begin
D983141983139983145983155983145983151983150 T983144983141983151983154983161
Decision theory is about how to make good decisions in circumstances orisk or uncertainty Tree concepts are especially important states strat-
egies and outcomes A state is a possible way things might be (it will rain
today or it wonrsquot rain today) a strategy is a possible action the decider
might take (bring my umbrella or leave it at home) An outcome is a situ-
ation that results when a given strategy is taken and a certain state is actual
(eg the situation o being stuck in the rain without an umbrella) In order
to assess the suitability o the various available strategies the decision
maker attempts to orm a judgment about how valuable the various out-
comes are
For example suppose I offer you a bet I ask a trusted third party to flip
a air coin but not to tell us whether it lands heads or tails Ten I ask you
to decide either to play (that is participate in the bet) or pass I you choose
to play it will cost you one dollar but i you play and the coin has come up
heads you will get your dollar back and I will pay you two more dollars so
you will be up two dollars I you choose to play and the coin comes up tails
however I will keep your dollar so you will be down one dollar I on the
other hand you choose to pass no money will change hands either way
Would you take my bet
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I bet you would Decision theory allows us to say precisely why the bet is
avorable or you Tere are two possible states or you to consider it could
be that the coin has come up heads and it could be that it has come up tailsAt the time you make your decision you donrsquot know which state is the actual
way things are but you do know that itrsquos one or the other Next there are
two possible strategies you can adopt play or pass Corresponding to the
our possible combinations o these states and strategies there are our pos-
sible situations that may resultmdashthese are the outcomes (983089) you play the
game and the coin is heads and so you win two dollars (1048626) you play the
game and the coin is tails so you lose one dollar (1048627) you pass and the coinis heads so you neither gain nor lose and (1048628) you pass and the coin is tails
so you neither gain nor lose In considering the question o what to do the
decision maker is invited to evaluate the outcomes Tat is the decision
maker attempts to estimate how valuable the various outcomes are In this
case the monetary value o outcome 983089 or you is two dollars or outcome 1048626
it is minus one dollar and or outcomes 1048627 and 1048628 zero In the case o most
actual decisions values other than money are at stake But starting with an
example using money is a good way to get an initial grasp o decision theory
Decision theorists commonly use a ldquodecision matrixrdquo to sum up inor-
mation relevant to a decision In our case we need a two-by-two matrix Te
columns correspond to the two possible states o the world and the rows
correspond to the two strategies you might take In the cells we write down
the valuations o the resulting outcomes
Heads Tails
PlayOutcome 1
$2Outcome 2
$-1
PassOutcome 3
$0Outcome 4
$0
Figure 983089983089
Should you play or pass I you only had one dollar to your name and
needed it to buy ood lest you starve then it might not be wise to play But
i yoursquore in ordinary circumstances and the loss o a dollar would be no great
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A Curious Of fer 852018852023
loss then itrsquos rational to play Intuitively this is because yoursquove got an equal
chance o gaining and losing and i you gain you gain twice what you would
lose i you lost More precisely itrsquos because the expected value o playing ishigher than the expected value o passing Te expected value o a strategy
or a given game or bet is the average value per game that would accrue to
you i you played the game an infinite number o times and adopted that
strategy every time Here the expected value o the strategy ldquoplayrdquo can be
calculated by multiplying the probability o each state by the value o its
corresponding outcome and adding up the products So the expected value
o ldquoplayrdquo is equal to
(frac12) times (1048626) + (frac12) times (minus983089) = 1048629983088
I you were offered this bet a large number o times and you chose ldquoplayrdquo
every time yoursquod win an average o about fify cents per game Te expected
value o passing by contrast is
(frac12) times (983088) + (frac12) times (983088) = 983088
One reason playing is a good bet here is that the expected value o playing
(fify cents) is more than the expected value o passing (zero cents) Now as
it turns out itrsquos not always rational to take the strategy that maximizes onersquos
expected value11 But maximizing expected value is ofen a good way to
make decisions that involve risk
For the sake o clarity Irsquove illustrated the concepts o a state a strategy an
outcome and a decision matrix by giving an example with precise monetary
values or outcomes and with definite probabilities assigned to the possiblestates in question In real lie we usually donrsquot have precise probabilities to
assign to the states and much (perhaps most) o what we care about canrsquot
be valued in monetary terms Even in such cases however there are prin-
ciples that can guide our decision making
One such principle is at play when we say things like ldquoIrsquoll do X because it
canrsquot hurt and it might helprdquo or ldquoYou should do Y because therersquos nothing to
lose and maybe a lot to gainrdquo Suppose yoursquove borrowed your riendrsquos bicycleand have cycled to a store on the edge o town You put the lock around the
bike and a parking sign and as yoursquore lifing the key to lock up the bike it
occurs to you that this part o town is very sae and therersquos hardly any chance
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the bike will be stolen Besides when yoursquore inside the bike will be in your
view through the store window As you finish thinking this yoursquove also just
put the key into the lock So should you lock up the bike You donrsquot have anyprecise knowledge about the probability o thef in the circumstances and
while you could estimate the value o the bike therersquos no obvious way to
calculate the disvalue your riend would experience i your negligence got his
bike stolen Despite your lack o knowledge on those points though itrsquos clear
enough what you should do all you have to do to lock the bike is turn your
wrist A decision theorist could map out your situation like this
A thief will happen by A thief wont happen by
Lock Nothing bad happens Nothing bad happens
Dontlock
Bike stolen (probably) Nothing bad happens
Figure 983089 983090
I a motivated capable thie is in act coming along the strategy o locking
will result in a ar better outcome while i such a thie wonrsquot happen by locking
is no worse than unlocking (by the time o your decision itrsquos just so easy to
lock that therersquos no cost to locking) In the language o game theory we say
that the strategy o locking ldquoweakly dominatesrdquo the strategy o not locking
One strategy weakly dominates another i (and only i) there is at least one
possible state o the world on which the first strategy delivers a better outcome
than the second and there are no possible states o the world on which the
first strategy delivers a worse outcome than second In other words depending
on how things turn out adopting a weakly dominant strategy will either end
up yielding a better result than adopting the other strategy would have or it
will end up yielding a result that is just as good as what yoursquod have gotten with
the other strategy In a situation o uncertainty when we donrsquot know which o
several possible states o the world is the true one it is always better to adopt
a weakly dominant strategy instead o the strategy it dominates
In case yoursquore wondering one strategy strongly dominates another
strategy i and only i it delivers a better outcome on every possible state o
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A Curious Of fer 8520181048633
the world O course strongly dominant strategies are even more preerable
than weakly dominant strategies when you can get them
Decision theorists have other principles to help guide us in uncertaintyBut itrsquos worth noting that in some cases we donrsquot need a general principle
Sometimes we can just see what the smart thing to do is especially i wersquove
laid out the inormation in a decision matrix For example suppose again
that a trusted third party flips a coin or us but doesnrsquot say whether it lands
heads or tails Now imagine that I credibly make you this offer i you choose
to play and itrsquos heads then Irsquoll give you a million dollars while yoursquoll owe
me one dollar i itrsquos tails and yoursquove chosen to play I you choose to pass nomoney is exchanged either way We could represent this with the matrix
Heads Tails
PlayOutcome 1
$1000000Outcome 2
$-1
PassOutcome 3
$0Outcome 4
$0
Figure 983089 983091
Here we canrsquot say that playing weakly dominates passing because i the
coin is tails you do slightly better by passing But itrsquos one dollar wersquore talking
about Strictly speaking playing is not a weakly dominant strategy here but
itrsquos close enough Te payoff is so much greater i the coin is heads and the
loss is so little i itrsquos tails that itrsquos clearly rational to play Perhaps we couldstate a precise universally valid principle that would apply in this case and
tell us what to do but we donrsquot really need one we can just see what the
smart move is Tis insight will prove helpul later on
With these preliminaries behind us we can now turn to the wager A
consideration o this argument will allow us to see that Christian com-
mitment is recommended by reason so long as the available evidence makes
it at least as likely as not that the central claims o Christianity are true
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852017852020 983137983147983145 983150983143 P983137983155983139983137 983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
the fine-tuning argument Tis argument has been summarized or non-
specialists in several places but not always with enough rigor and back-
ground or the strength o the case to be ully displayed In chapter seven Iexplain the parts o probability theory required to appreciate the power o
the evidence that our universe is the product o an intelligence Chapter eight
contains an original reply to the strongest alternative to design the multi-
verse hypothesis (Tis is the hypothesis that our universe is just one o a vast
number o universes most o which are not lie permitting) aken together
chapters five through eight provide evidence or God drawing on the best
recent research but written so as to be accessible to the general readerIn chapter nine I turn to specifically Christian doctrines suggesting that
the beauty and existential resonance o Christianity are clues to its truth
Chapter ten concerns the two most powerul arguments against theism the
argument rom divine hiddenness and the argument rom evil (As argu-
ments against all orms o theism they are arguments against Christian
theism as well) Tese topics deserve not a single chapter but whole books
o their own And they have them So in chapter ten I summarize what I taketo be the strongest replies to the arguments rom hiddenness and evil o-
cusing on the recent work o Peter van Inwagen and Eleonore Stump Finally
in chapters eleven and twelve I turn to arguments or the resurrection o
Jesus Tis is just one o many Christian doctrines o course but logically
speaking it holds a special place I one has reason to believe that Jesus rose
rom the dead then one has reason to believe that Jesusrsquo teachings have
the divine stamp o approval and are thereore true So an argument or the
resurrection is an argument or the truth o Christianity (or at least the
larger part o one) In this pair o chapters I draw on the most recent work
on the issue by historians theologians and philosophers While I think that
the evidence o part two is by itsel sufficient to justiy belie in Christianity
agreement on this point is not required or the main argument o the book
to succeed For given the argument o part one all that is required or a
demonstration o the rationality o Christian commitment is that the evi-
dence render Christianity at least as likely as not
Itrsquos sometimes said that the longest distance in the world is the distance
rom the head to the heart And so in part three Irsquoll try to illustrate how a
lie o Christian commitment is not just reasonable but worth desiring as
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Introduction 852017852021
wellmdashsatisying both the head and the heart o do this Irsquoll tell the stories
o three exemplary individuals who took Jesus up on his invitation to ollow
him Te lives o these individuals were enriched and in turn enrichedcountless others in ways all o us would want to be true or our own lives
Dietrich Bonhoeffer Jean Vanier and Immaculeacutee Ilibagiza show how heroic
noble and beautiul a Christian lie can be Jesus said ldquoI came that they may
have lie and have it abundantlyrdquo (Jn 983089983088983089983088) Te abundance that so ofen
characterizes a devout Christian lie is not a matter o external goods or
material wealth but is internal and spiritual flowing rom a close personal
relationship with God Lie ocused on God offers comort inspiration anda peace that the vicissitudes o ortune need never take away
Te landscape o academic philosophy has changed significantly in the
last orty or fify years In the 983089983088s and rsquo1048631983088s it was taken or granted in many
philosophical circles that traditional Christian belie is unjustified and ir-
rational Tanks to the work o philosophers such as Alvin Plantinga
Eleonore Stump Peter van Inwagen and Richard Swinburne things have
changed
2
Recent decades have been a time o enormous productivity orphilosophers deending the rationality o Christian aith answering objec-
tions to Christian doctrines improving traditional arguments or the exis-
tence o God and ormulating new ones In the pages that ollow Irsquoll explore
some o the most important results o this body o work Irsquove written this
book though without presupposing that the reader has had ormal training
in philosophy or theology My hope is that it will be useul or anyone who
is interested in the evidence or God or the evidence or Christianity more
particularly I also hope that college students in philosophy and theology
courses will find the material worthwhile
Since this book is about evidence and reasons or religious belie itrsquos
worth addressing at the outset the question o why people believe what they
do on religious issues Isnrsquot religion a matter o the heart Does anyone really
believe on the basis o logic or argument Many committed Christians be-
lieve in God not primarily because o argument but because o experiencemdash
they have an intuitive sense o Godrsquos presence Perhaps not all the time but
certainly much o the time it just seems that God is there aware o what we
do and think Tis is how it is in my own case But what i you donrsquot happen
to have such an experience yoursel Or what i you have it occasionally but
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it is fleeting and open to serious doubt In those cases it makes good sense
to spend some time examining arguments and publicly available evidence
relating to questions about God and religion According to Christianityaith is a gif But or the person who does not have aith a careul look at
arguments or (and against) Christianity is a natural and reasonable step to
take Examination o evidence can also be worthwhile or the person who
does have aith but has doubts too In what ollows I give an extended
presentation o evidence or the truth o Christianity and a rigorous ar-
gument or the reasonableness o Christian commitment
While this book will ocus on the rational case or Christianity itrsquos im-portant to acknowledge that there are many actors involved in a decision
to commit to a Christian way o lie actors that go beyond impersonal
philosophical reasoning Onersquos upbringing onersquos experiences with indi-
vidual Christians the attitudes and views o onersquos closest riends and amily
onersquos emotional lie onersquos deep-seated hopes and ears and onersquos own par-
ticular way o viewing the worldmdashall o these come into play when one
encounters the message o Jesus I believe that the philosophical argumen-tation contained in this book will be helpul to many people but philo-
sophical argumentation is only one part o a larger picture When it comes
to religion logic may or may not be where one starts but itrsquos certainly not
where one should end Living a Christian lie is an act o the whole personmdash
mind and heart body and soul Still precisely because a Christian lie in-
volves the whole person there is a place or the mind and thus or reason
evidence and logic
Finally a ew words are called or regarding a concept that will play a
key role in what ollows probability Everyone has many belies but some
o those belies are held more confidently than others For example I be-
lieve that Irsquoll still be alive twenty-our hours rom now Irsquom not absolutely
certain I will be but nonetheless I do believe it I also believe Irsquoll be alive
twenty-our days rom now But Irsquom less confident in this belie than in my
belie about being alive twenty-our hours rom now How about twenty-
our years rom now In my case I wouldnrsquot say that I believe Irsquoll be alive
twenty-our years rom now I also donrsquot believe I wonrsquot be alive twenty-
our years rom nowmdashtherersquos just not enough inormation to orm a belie
one way or the other
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Introduction 852017852023
Philosophers sometimes use the language o ldquolevels o confidencerdquo when
discussing belies and probability Levels o confidence come in a scale rom
zero to one (or 983088 percent to 983089983088983088 percent) o be absolutely certain o some-thing (eg 983089 + 983089 = 1048626) is to assign it a level o confidence o 983089 o be absolutely
certain a claim is alse (eg 983089 + 983089 = 9830891048631) is to assign it a level o confidence o
983088 In such a situation one could say that the probability o the claim is 983088
percent Terersquos just no chance that yoursquove gotten conused and ldquo983089 + 983089 = 9830891048631rdquo
is really true What about a proposition like ldquothis normal penny will come
up heads when I flip itrdquo Here itrsquos reasonable to assign equal levels o confi-
dence both to this claim and to the claim that the penny will come up tailsSo wersquod assign both claims a level o confidence o 9830881048629 and we could say that
the chance the coin will be heads is 1048629983088 percent How confident am I that this
six-sided die will show either a 983089 or a 1048626 when I roll it 104862710486271048627 percent You get
the idea
Te word probability will come up ofen in this book Irsquoll sometimes also
talk about how likely something is or what the chance is that such-and-such
is true Unless otherwise noted these are all just different ways to talk aboutthe same thing what philosophers call epistemic probability Roughly the
epistemic probability o a proposition (that is a statement or a claim) is the
level o confidence itrsquos reasonable to assign to that proposition3
Probability evidence moral heroism commitment all o these actors
will enter into our discussion o the reasonableness o Christian theism But
enough with introductory matters On to deeper waters
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- Part One -
UNCERTAINTY
and
COMMITMENT
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- 983089 -
A CURIOUS OFFER
I983149983137983143983145983150983141 983156983144983137983156 983151983150983141 983140983137983161 you receive a phone call rom a abulously
wealthy individualmdashan eccentric billionaire known or spending his money
in odd and trivial ways He makes you a curious offer You are to determine
the religion you think most likely to be true and then practice that religion
devoutly attend religious services read the sacred scriptures o that religion
pray as that religion prescribes and live out the religionrsquos moral teachings
And he asks you to do this or the rest o your lie His part o the bargainwill be to place 983076983089983088 billion in an escrow account to be deliverable on your
death to whatever persons or causes you have named You can leave the
money to your amily or to a charitable organization or to scientific re-
search or any combination o the above whatever you think best I you
choose not to enter into the bargain he adds he will be using the money to
hire tens o thousands o artists to paint millions and millions o mediocre
oil paintings o his pet dog ScoutO course i this actually happened to you yoursquod be a mite skeptical But
imagine that afer due diligence you became convinced that this was no joke
And the billionaire clarified that you did not have to lie or otherwise mis-
represent yoursel in order to ulfill your side o the bargain I or example
you chose Christianity as the religion you thought most likely to be true you
would not have to recite the creed during the liturgy i you did not believe
it And your prayers could be conditional as in ldquoI yoursquore there God thank
you or this and please help me with thatrdquo An odd offer to be sure but also
in all probability the only chance yoursquoll ever have to direct 983076983089983088 billion o
wealth to persons or causes you care about So what would you do Would
you accept the offer
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Perhaps the act that the payoff is mere monetary gain gives you pause
Good or you to trade onersquos religious devotion or money would be base But
remember that you can name whatever beneficiary yoursquod like includingcharitable organizations that work with the poorest o the poor You can
trade your religious devotion or ood or the starving or education or
impoverished children in the developing world On board yet Say that the
billionaire adds that he doesnrsquot want to make this offer i you already happen
to be certain or almost certain that God does not exist His offer is only or
people who can say o some particular religion that there is at least a decent
chance that it is trueNow consider an alternative scenario Suppose that rom the get-go the
billionaire had offered you a different bargain the payoff is not a guaranteed
983076983089983088 billion but a 1048629983088 percent shot at 983076983089983088983088 billion Tat is suppose the bil-
lionairersquos side o the bargain is to put 983076983089983088983088 billion in an escrow account Ten
afer your death a air coin will be flipped I it comes up heads the entire
983076983089983088983088 billion will be given to your named beneficiary or beneficiaries I tails
then wersquoll have a lot o pictures o Scout Would you accept this offerHold on to that thought
Te overarching question o this book is the question o whether there is
good reason to make a serious commitment to living a Christian lie In part
two wersquoll take a tour o the evidence or Christianity But beore that the
question to ask first is ldquoHow much evidence would be required to make a
Christian commitment reasonablerdquo As Irsquoll try to show here in part one a
serious Christian commitment is recommended by reason even i there is
as little as a 1048629983088 percent chance that Christianity is true In other words i
you are willing to grant that Christianity is at least as likely as not then it is
rational or you to commit to living a devout Christian lie Indeed i yoursquore
in ordinary circumstances it is irrational or you not to1
P983137983155983139983137983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
Te argument Irsquoll give or this conclusion has its roots in the reflections o
seventeenth-century polymath Blaise Pascal Pascal made important contri-
butions in mathematics probability theory and physics His work on fluid
mechanics was instrumental in the later invention o the hydraulic press
and he himsel designed and built one o the first mechanical calculating
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A Curious Of fer 852018852019
machines an early precursor to the digital computer (Interestingly the
principles used in the machine are still employed in many automobile
odometers) Pascal was an inventor an intellectual and a scientist He wasalso a deeply religious man At the age o thirty-one he had a powerul mys-
tical experience o God He described the experience in a note and stitched
the note into his coat keeping it close to him He evidently transerred the
paper note (together with a cleaner copy he put down on parchment) rom
coat to coat or the rest o his liemdasha servant ound them afer his death
Pascal suffered rom ill health dying at only thirty-nine In his final years
he was drafing a work o apologetics Te disorganized ragments that werehis notes or the project were published posthumously and quickly became
a classic Pascalrsquos Pensees (French or ldquothoughtsrdquo)2 In one o those ragments
Pascal gives an argument not or the theoretical conclusion that God exists
but or the practical conclusion that one should live a devout Christian lie
Te argument is addressed to those who arenrsquot sure whether Christianity is
true or alse and has come to be known as Pascalrsquos wager o be precise the
ragment contains the seeds o our different arguments in support o reli-gious commitment3 Te strongest version comes down to this It is rational
to seek a relationship with God and live a deeply Christian lie because there
is very much to gain and relatively little to lose In chapter two Irsquoll present a
strengthened and expanded version o this argument I Christianity is
indeed true then by committing to live a Christian lie one brings great joy
to God and all others in heaven raises the chance that one will be with God
orever raises the chance that one will help others attain union with God
expresses gratitude to God and becomes more aware o Godrsquos love and more
receptive to his help in the course o onersquos earthly lie On the other hand i
Christianity is alse the person who commits his or her lie to Jesusrsquo teachings
has still lived a worthwhile lie striving or moral excellence and experi-
encing the benefits o religious community (benefits that contemporary
sociological research reveals to be significant)
Pascalrsquos pragmatic argument in support o religious commitment has had
its share o critics Tus the amous English philosopher G E Moore ldquo[Con-
cerning Pascalrsquos claim that] in our state o doubt we should decide or that
belie which promises the greater reward I have nothing to say o it except
that it seems to me absolutely wickedrdquo4 Voltaire thought the wager was
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ldquosomewhat indecent and childish Te idea o gaming o losing or winning
is quite unsuitable to the dignity o the subjectrdquo5 In much the same vein an
earlier French critic had complained ldquoI lose patience listening to youtreating the highest o all matters and resting the most important truth in
the world the source o all truths on an idea so base and puerile on a com-
parison with a game o heads and tails more productive o mirth than per-
suasionrdquo6 More recently Christopher Hitchens sees Pascalrsquos theology as ldquonot
ar short o sordidrdquo7 remarking that ldquoPascal reminds me o the hypocrites
and rauds who abound in almudic Jewish rationalization Donrsquot do any
work on the Sabbath yoursel but pay someone else to do it You obeyed theletter o the law whorsquos countingrdquo8
Are these objections air Mathematician James Franklin suggests that
Pascalrsquos actual view is ofen replaced with an unflattering caricature o the
wager Franklin contrasts these two views
What Pascal said You have to choose whether to accept religion Tink o it
as a coin toss where you donrsquot know the outcome In this case i you losemdash
therersquos no Godmdashyou have not lost much But i you win there is an infinitepayoff So you should go to Mass and pray or aith [Franklinrsquos paraphrase]
Pascal caricatured Being base and greedy we want lots o goodies in this
lie and i possible the next So we are prepared to give up some pleasures
now on the off chance o a lot more later i our eye to the main chance makes
it look worth our while Since the loot on offer is infinite even a small chance
o raking it in makes it worth a try to grovel to any deity that might do what
we want9
Franklin makes a good point Pascalrsquos argument is ofen interpreted in
the worst possible light Still there are legitimate objections to consider
even when Pascalrsquos reasoning is interpreted airly It may be that it is im-
moral to allow any considerations about cost and benefit to affect what we
believe Perhaps a respect or truth requires that our belies be determined
by evidence and evidence alone Second we must consider whether the
costs o committing to God are simply too high And perhaps the most
common criticism is that Pascal illicitly assumed there were only two op-
tions to consider atheism and (Catholic) Christianity Te many gods ob-
jection as itrsquos ofen called contends that the multitude o possibly true reli-
gions makes trouble or Pascal
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A Curious Of fer 852018852021
In chapters three and our Irsquoll elaborate on these and additional objec-
tions and respond to them But first we need to lay the basic argument
out on the table in more detail and with greater precision In order togive the strongest argument possible Irsquoll set aside the analysis o Pascalrsquos
text and instead develop a Pascalian argument in my own way10 Just or
the sake o having a handy title Irsquoll reer to my argument as ldquothe wagerrdquo
or even ldquoPascalrsquos wagerrdquo but this title should be taken merely as a re-
erence to its original inspiration not as a claim that I am providing a
verbatim reproduction o Pascalrsquos thought Indeed the wager Irsquoll present
takes advantage o cutting-edge work in philosophy and psychology andrecent sociological data unavailable to Pascal and it is thereore able to
greatly improve on his rather sketchy note Since itrsquos impossible to explain
the wager clearly without using some concepts rom decision theory
thatrsquos where wersquoll begin
D983141983139983145983155983145983151983150 T983144983141983151983154983161
Decision theory is about how to make good decisions in circumstances orisk or uncertainty Tree concepts are especially important states strat-
egies and outcomes A state is a possible way things might be (it will rain
today or it wonrsquot rain today) a strategy is a possible action the decider
might take (bring my umbrella or leave it at home) An outcome is a situ-
ation that results when a given strategy is taken and a certain state is actual
(eg the situation o being stuck in the rain without an umbrella) In order
to assess the suitability o the various available strategies the decision
maker attempts to orm a judgment about how valuable the various out-
comes are
For example suppose I offer you a bet I ask a trusted third party to flip
a air coin but not to tell us whether it lands heads or tails Ten I ask you
to decide either to play (that is participate in the bet) or pass I you choose
to play it will cost you one dollar but i you play and the coin has come up
heads you will get your dollar back and I will pay you two more dollars so
you will be up two dollars I you choose to play and the coin comes up tails
however I will keep your dollar so you will be down one dollar I on the
other hand you choose to pass no money will change hands either way
Would you take my bet
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8520181048630 983137983147983145 983150983143 P983137983155983139983137 983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
I bet you would Decision theory allows us to say precisely why the bet is
avorable or you Tere are two possible states or you to consider it could
be that the coin has come up heads and it could be that it has come up tailsAt the time you make your decision you donrsquot know which state is the actual
way things are but you do know that itrsquos one or the other Next there are
two possible strategies you can adopt play or pass Corresponding to the
our possible combinations o these states and strategies there are our pos-
sible situations that may resultmdashthese are the outcomes (983089) you play the
game and the coin is heads and so you win two dollars (1048626) you play the
game and the coin is tails so you lose one dollar (1048627) you pass and the coinis heads so you neither gain nor lose and (1048628) you pass and the coin is tails
so you neither gain nor lose In considering the question o what to do the
decision maker is invited to evaluate the outcomes Tat is the decision
maker attempts to estimate how valuable the various outcomes are In this
case the monetary value o outcome 983089 or you is two dollars or outcome 1048626
it is minus one dollar and or outcomes 1048627 and 1048628 zero In the case o most
actual decisions values other than money are at stake But starting with an
example using money is a good way to get an initial grasp o decision theory
Decision theorists commonly use a ldquodecision matrixrdquo to sum up inor-
mation relevant to a decision In our case we need a two-by-two matrix Te
columns correspond to the two possible states o the world and the rows
correspond to the two strategies you might take In the cells we write down
the valuations o the resulting outcomes
Heads Tails
PlayOutcome 1
$2Outcome 2
$-1
PassOutcome 3
$0Outcome 4
$0
Figure 983089983089
Should you play or pass I you only had one dollar to your name and
needed it to buy ood lest you starve then it might not be wise to play But
i yoursquore in ordinary circumstances and the loss o a dollar would be no great
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A Curious Of fer 852018852023
loss then itrsquos rational to play Intuitively this is because yoursquove got an equal
chance o gaining and losing and i you gain you gain twice what you would
lose i you lost More precisely itrsquos because the expected value o playing ishigher than the expected value o passing Te expected value o a strategy
or a given game or bet is the average value per game that would accrue to
you i you played the game an infinite number o times and adopted that
strategy every time Here the expected value o the strategy ldquoplayrdquo can be
calculated by multiplying the probability o each state by the value o its
corresponding outcome and adding up the products So the expected value
o ldquoplayrdquo is equal to
(frac12) times (1048626) + (frac12) times (minus983089) = 1048629983088
I you were offered this bet a large number o times and you chose ldquoplayrdquo
every time yoursquod win an average o about fify cents per game Te expected
value o passing by contrast is
(frac12) times (983088) + (frac12) times (983088) = 983088
One reason playing is a good bet here is that the expected value o playing
(fify cents) is more than the expected value o passing (zero cents) Now as
it turns out itrsquos not always rational to take the strategy that maximizes onersquos
expected value11 But maximizing expected value is ofen a good way to
make decisions that involve risk
For the sake o clarity Irsquove illustrated the concepts o a state a strategy an
outcome and a decision matrix by giving an example with precise monetary
values or outcomes and with definite probabilities assigned to the possiblestates in question In real lie we usually donrsquot have precise probabilities to
assign to the states and much (perhaps most) o what we care about canrsquot
be valued in monetary terms Even in such cases however there are prin-
ciples that can guide our decision making
One such principle is at play when we say things like ldquoIrsquoll do X because it
canrsquot hurt and it might helprdquo or ldquoYou should do Y because therersquos nothing to
lose and maybe a lot to gainrdquo Suppose yoursquove borrowed your riendrsquos bicycleand have cycled to a store on the edge o town You put the lock around the
bike and a parking sign and as yoursquore lifing the key to lock up the bike it
occurs to you that this part o town is very sae and therersquos hardly any chance
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the bike will be stolen Besides when yoursquore inside the bike will be in your
view through the store window As you finish thinking this yoursquove also just
put the key into the lock So should you lock up the bike You donrsquot have anyprecise knowledge about the probability o thef in the circumstances and
while you could estimate the value o the bike therersquos no obvious way to
calculate the disvalue your riend would experience i your negligence got his
bike stolen Despite your lack o knowledge on those points though itrsquos clear
enough what you should do all you have to do to lock the bike is turn your
wrist A decision theorist could map out your situation like this
A thief will happen by A thief wont happen by
Lock Nothing bad happens Nothing bad happens
Dontlock
Bike stolen (probably) Nothing bad happens
Figure 983089 983090
I a motivated capable thie is in act coming along the strategy o locking
will result in a ar better outcome while i such a thie wonrsquot happen by locking
is no worse than unlocking (by the time o your decision itrsquos just so easy to
lock that therersquos no cost to locking) In the language o game theory we say
that the strategy o locking ldquoweakly dominatesrdquo the strategy o not locking
One strategy weakly dominates another i (and only i) there is at least one
possible state o the world on which the first strategy delivers a better outcome
than the second and there are no possible states o the world on which the
first strategy delivers a worse outcome than second In other words depending
on how things turn out adopting a weakly dominant strategy will either end
up yielding a better result than adopting the other strategy would have or it
will end up yielding a result that is just as good as what yoursquod have gotten with
the other strategy In a situation o uncertainty when we donrsquot know which o
several possible states o the world is the true one it is always better to adopt
a weakly dominant strategy instead o the strategy it dominates
In case yoursquore wondering one strategy strongly dominates another
strategy i and only i it delivers a better outcome on every possible state o
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A Curious Of fer 8520181048633
the world O course strongly dominant strategies are even more preerable
than weakly dominant strategies when you can get them
Decision theorists have other principles to help guide us in uncertaintyBut itrsquos worth noting that in some cases we donrsquot need a general principle
Sometimes we can just see what the smart thing to do is especially i wersquove
laid out the inormation in a decision matrix For example suppose again
that a trusted third party flips a coin or us but doesnrsquot say whether it lands
heads or tails Now imagine that I credibly make you this offer i you choose
to play and itrsquos heads then Irsquoll give you a million dollars while yoursquoll owe
me one dollar i itrsquos tails and yoursquove chosen to play I you choose to pass nomoney is exchanged either way We could represent this with the matrix
Heads Tails
PlayOutcome 1
$1000000Outcome 2
$-1
PassOutcome 3
$0Outcome 4
$0
Figure 983089 983091
Here we canrsquot say that playing weakly dominates passing because i the
coin is tails you do slightly better by passing But itrsquos one dollar wersquore talking
about Strictly speaking playing is not a weakly dominant strategy here but
itrsquos close enough Te payoff is so much greater i the coin is heads and the
loss is so little i itrsquos tails that itrsquos clearly rational to play Perhaps we couldstate a precise universally valid principle that would apply in this case and
tell us what to do but we donrsquot really need one we can just see what the
smart move is Tis insight will prove helpul later on
With these preliminaries behind us we can now turn to the wager A
consideration o this argument will allow us to see that Christian com-
mitment is recommended by reason so long as the available evidence makes
it at least as likely as not that the central claims o Christianity are true
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Introduction 852017852021
wellmdashsatisying both the head and the heart o do this Irsquoll tell the stories
o three exemplary individuals who took Jesus up on his invitation to ollow
him Te lives o these individuals were enriched and in turn enrichedcountless others in ways all o us would want to be true or our own lives
Dietrich Bonhoeffer Jean Vanier and Immaculeacutee Ilibagiza show how heroic
noble and beautiul a Christian lie can be Jesus said ldquoI came that they may
have lie and have it abundantlyrdquo (Jn 983089983088983089983088) Te abundance that so ofen
characterizes a devout Christian lie is not a matter o external goods or
material wealth but is internal and spiritual flowing rom a close personal
relationship with God Lie ocused on God offers comort inspiration anda peace that the vicissitudes o ortune need never take away
Te landscape o academic philosophy has changed significantly in the
last orty or fify years In the 983089983088s and rsquo1048631983088s it was taken or granted in many
philosophical circles that traditional Christian belie is unjustified and ir-
rational Tanks to the work o philosophers such as Alvin Plantinga
Eleonore Stump Peter van Inwagen and Richard Swinburne things have
changed
2
Recent decades have been a time o enormous productivity orphilosophers deending the rationality o Christian aith answering objec-
tions to Christian doctrines improving traditional arguments or the exis-
tence o God and ormulating new ones In the pages that ollow Irsquoll explore
some o the most important results o this body o work Irsquove written this
book though without presupposing that the reader has had ormal training
in philosophy or theology My hope is that it will be useul or anyone who
is interested in the evidence or God or the evidence or Christianity more
particularly I also hope that college students in philosophy and theology
courses will find the material worthwhile
Since this book is about evidence and reasons or religious belie itrsquos
worth addressing at the outset the question o why people believe what they
do on religious issues Isnrsquot religion a matter o the heart Does anyone really
believe on the basis o logic or argument Many committed Christians be-
lieve in God not primarily because o argument but because o experiencemdash
they have an intuitive sense o Godrsquos presence Perhaps not all the time but
certainly much o the time it just seems that God is there aware o what we
do and think Tis is how it is in my own case But what i you donrsquot happen
to have such an experience yoursel Or what i you have it occasionally but
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it is fleeting and open to serious doubt In those cases it makes good sense
to spend some time examining arguments and publicly available evidence
relating to questions about God and religion According to Christianityaith is a gif But or the person who does not have aith a careul look at
arguments or (and against) Christianity is a natural and reasonable step to
take Examination o evidence can also be worthwhile or the person who
does have aith but has doubts too In what ollows I give an extended
presentation o evidence or the truth o Christianity and a rigorous ar-
gument or the reasonableness o Christian commitment
While this book will ocus on the rational case or Christianity itrsquos im-portant to acknowledge that there are many actors involved in a decision
to commit to a Christian way o lie actors that go beyond impersonal
philosophical reasoning Onersquos upbringing onersquos experiences with indi-
vidual Christians the attitudes and views o onersquos closest riends and amily
onersquos emotional lie onersquos deep-seated hopes and ears and onersquos own par-
ticular way o viewing the worldmdashall o these come into play when one
encounters the message o Jesus I believe that the philosophical argumen-tation contained in this book will be helpul to many people but philo-
sophical argumentation is only one part o a larger picture When it comes
to religion logic may or may not be where one starts but itrsquos certainly not
where one should end Living a Christian lie is an act o the whole personmdash
mind and heart body and soul Still precisely because a Christian lie in-
volves the whole person there is a place or the mind and thus or reason
evidence and logic
Finally a ew words are called or regarding a concept that will play a
key role in what ollows probability Everyone has many belies but some
o those belies are held more confidently than others For example I be-
lieve that Irsquoll still be alive twenty-our hours rom now Irsquom not absolutely
certain I will be but nonetheless I do believe it I also believe Irsquoll be alive
twenty-our days rom now But Irsquom less confident in this belie than in my
belie about being alive twenty-our hours rom now How about twenty-
our years rom now In my case I wouldnrsquot say that I believe Irsquoll be alive
twenty-our years rom now I also donrsquot believe I wonrsquot be alive twenty-
our years rom nowmdashtherersquos just not enough inormation to orm a belie
one way or the other
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Introduction 852017852023
Philosophers sometimes use the language o ldquolevels o confidencerdquo when
discussing belies and probability Levels o confidence come in a scale rom
zero to one (or 983088 percent to 983089983088983088 percent) o be absolutely certain o some-thing (eg 983089 + 983089 = 1048626) is to assign it a level o confidence o 983089 o be absolutely
certain a claim is alse (eg 983089 + 983089 = 9830891048631) is to assign it a level o confidence o
983088 In such a situation one could say that the probability o the claim is 983088
percent Terersquos just no chance that yoursquove gotten conused and ldquo983089 + 983089 = 9830891048631rdquo
is really true What about a proposition like ldquothis normal penny will come
up heads when I flip itrdquo Here itrsquos reasonable to assign equal levels o confi-
dence both to this claim and to the claim that the penny will come up tailsSo wersquod assign both claims a level o confidence o 9830881048629 and we could say that
the chance the coin will be heads is 1048629983088 percent How confident am I that this
six-sided die will show either a 983089 or a 1048626 when I roll it 104862710486271048627 percent You get
the idea
Te word probability will come up ofen in this book Irsquoll sometimes also
talk about how likely something is or what the chance is that such-and-such
is true Unless otherwise noted these are all just different ways to talk aboutthe same thing what philosophers call epistemic probability Roughly the
epistemic probability o a proposition (that is a statement or a claim) is the
level o confidence itrsquos reasonable to assign to that proposition3
Probability evidence moral heroism commitment all o these actors
will enter into our discussion o the reasonableness o Christian theism But
enough with introductory matters On to deeper waters
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- Part One -
UNCERTAINTY
and
COMMITMENT
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- 983089 -
A CURIOUS OFFER
I983149983137983143983145983150983141 983156983144983137983156 983151983150983141 983140983137983161 you receive a phone call rom a abulously
wealthy individualmdashan eccentric billionaire known or spending his money
in odd and trivial ways He makes you a curious offer You are to determine
the religion you think most likely to be true and then practice that religion
devoutly attend religious services read the sacred scriptures o that religion
pray as that religion prescribes and live out the religionrsquos moral teachings
And he asks you to do this or the rest o your lie His part o the bargainwill be to place 983076983089983088 billion in an escrow account to be deliverable on your
death to whatever persons or causes you have named You can leave the
money to your amily or to a charitable organization or to scientific re-
search or any combination o the above whatever you think best I you
choose not to enter into the bargain he adds he will be using the money to
hire tens o thousands o artists to paint millions and millions o mediocre
oil paintings o his pet dog ScoutO course i this actually happened to you yoursquod be a mite skeptical But
imagine that afer due diligence you became convinced that this was no joke
And the billionaire clarified that you did not have to lie or otherwise mis-
represent yoursel in order to ulfill your side o the bargain I or example
you chose Christianity as the religion you thought most likely to be true you
would not have to recite the creed during the liturgy i you did not believe
it And your prayers could be conditional as in ldquoI yoursquore there God thank
you or this and please help me with thatrdquo An odd offer to be sure but also
in all probability the only chance yoursquoll ever have to direct 983076983089983088 billion o
wealth to persons or causes you care about So what would you do Would
you accept the offer
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Perhaps the act that the payoff is mere monetary gain gives you pause
Good or you to trade onersquos religious devotion or money would be base But
remember that you can name whatever beneficiary yoursquod like includingcharitable organizations that work with the poorest o the poor You can
trade your religious devotion or ood or the starving or education or
impoverished children in the developing world On board yet Say that the
billionaire adds that he doesnrsquot want to make this offer i you already happen
to be certain or almost certain that God does not exist His offer is only or
people who can say o some particular religion that there is at least a decent
chance that it is trueNow consider an alternative scenario Suppose that rom the get-go the
billionaire had offered you a different bargain the payoff is not a guaranteed
983076983089983088 billion but a 1048629983088 percent shot at 983076983089983088983088 billion Tat is suppose the bil-
lionairersquos side o the bargain is to put 983076983089983088983088 billion in an escrow account Ten
afer your death a air coin will be flipped I it comes up heads the entire
983076983089983088983088 billion will be given to your named beneficiary or beneficiaries I tails
then wersquoll have a lot o pictures o Scout Would you accept this offerHold on to that thought
Te overarching question o this book is the question o whether there is
good reason to make a serious commitment to living a Christian lie In part
two wersquoll take a tour o the evidence or Christianity But beore that the
question to ask first is ldquoHow much evidence would be required to make a
Christian commitment reasonablerdquo As Irsquoll try to show here in part one a
serious Christian commitment is recommended by reason even i there is
as little as a 1048629983088 percent chance that Christianity is true In other words i
you are willing to grant that Christianity is at least as likely as not then it is
rational or you to commit to living a devout Christian lie Indeed i yoursquore
in ordinary circumstances it is irrational or you not to1
P983137983155983139983137983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
Te argument Irsquoll give or this conclusion has its roots in the reflections o
seventeenth-century polymath Blaise Pascal Pascal made important contri-
butions in mathematics probability theory and physics His work on fluid
mechanics was instrumental in the later invention o the hydraulic press
and he himsel designed and built one o the first mechanical calculating
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A Curious Of fer 852018852019
machines an early precursor to the digital computer (Interestingly the
principles used in the machine are still employed in many automobile
odometers) Pascal was an inventor an intellectual and a scientist He wasalso a deeply religious man At the age o thirty-one he had a powerul mys-
tical experience o God He described the experience in a note and stitched
the note into his coat keeping it close to him He evidently transerred the
paper note (together with a cleaner copy he put down on parchment) rom
coat to coat or the rest o his liemdasha servant ound them afer his death
Pascal suffered rom ill health dying at only thirty-nine In his final years
he was drafing a work o apologetics Te disorganized ragments that werehis notes or the project were published posthumously and quickly became
a classic Pascalrsquos Pensees (French or ldquothoughtsrdquo)2 In one o those ragments
Pascal gives an argument not or the theoretical conclusion that God exists
but or the practical conclusion that one should live a devout Christian lie
Te argument is addressed to those who arenrsquot sure whether Christianity is
true or alse and has come to be known as Pascalrsquos wager o be precise the
ragment contains the seeds o our different arguments in support o reli-gious commitment3 Te strongest version comes down to this It is rational
to seek a relationship with God and live a deeply Christian lie because there
is very much to gain and relatively little to lose In chapter two Irsquoll present a
strengthened and expanded version o this argument I Christianity is
indeed true then by committing to live a Christian lie one brings great joy
to God and all others in heaven raises the chance that one will be with God
orever raises the chance that one will help others attain union with God
expresses gratitude to God and becomes more aware o Godrsquos love and more
receptive to his help in the course o onersquos earthly lie On the other hand i
Christianity is alse the person who commits his or her lie to Jesusrsquo teachings
has still lived a worthwhile lie striving or moral excellence and experi-
encing the benefits o religious community (benefits that contemporary
sociological research reveals to be significant)
Pascalrsquos pragmatic argument in support o religious commitment has had
its share o critics Tus the amous English philosopher G E Moore ldquo[Con-
cerning Pascalrsquos claim that] in our state o doubt we should decide or that
belie which promises the greater reward I have nothing to say o it except
that it seems to me absolutely wickedrdquo4 Voltaire thought the wager was
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ldquosomewhat indecent and childish Te idea o gaming o losing or winning
is quite unsuitable to the dignity o the subjectrdquo5 In much the same vein an
earlier French critic had complained ldquoI lose patience listening to youtreating the highest o all matters and resting the most important truth in
the world the source o all truths on an idea so base and puerile on a com-
parison with a game o heads and tails more productive o mirth than per-
suasionrdquo6 More recently Christopher Hitchens sees Pascalrsquos theology as ldquonot
ar short o sordidrdquo7 remarking that ldquoPascal reminds me o the hypocrites
and rauds who abound in almudic Jewish rationalization Donrsquot do any
work on the Sabbath yoursel but pay someone else to do it You obeyed theletter o the law whorsquos countingrdquo8
Are these objections air Mathematician James Franklin suggests that
Pascalrsquos actual view is ofen replaced with an unflattering caricature o the
wager Franklin contrasts these two views
What Pascal said You have to choose whether to accept religion Tink o it
as a coin toss where you donrsquot know the outcome In this case i you losemdash
therersquos no Godmdashyou have not lost much But i you win there is an infinitepayoff So you should go to Mass and pray or aith [Franklinrsquos paraphrase]
Pascal caricatured Being base and greedy we want lots o goodies in this
lie and i possible the next So we are prepared to give up some pleasures
now on the off chance o a lot more later i our eye to the main chance makes
it look worth our while Since the loot on offer is infinite even a small chance
o raking it in makes it worth a try to grovel to any deity that might do what
we want9
Franklin makes a good point Pascalrsquos argument is ofen interpreted in
the worst possible light Still there are legitimate objections to consider
even when Pascalrsquos reasoning is interpreted airly It may be that it is im-
moral to allow any considerations about cost and benefit to affect what we
believe Perhaps a respect or truth requires that our belies be determined
by evidence and evidence alone Second we must consider whether the
costs o committing to God are simply too high And perhaps the most
common criticism is that Pascal illicitly assumed there were only two op-
tions to consider atheism and (Catholic) Christianity Te many gods ob-
jection as itrsquos ofen called contends that the multitude o possibly true reli-
gions makes trouble or Pascal
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A Curious Of fer 852018852021
In chapters three and our Irsquoll elaborate on these and additional objec-
tions and respond to them But first we need to lay the basic argument
out on the table in more detail and with greater precision In order togive the strongest argument possible Irsquoll set aside the analysis o Pascalrsquos
text and instead develop a Pascalian argument in my own way10 Just or
the sake o having a handy title Irsquoll reer to my argument as ldquothe wagerrdquo
or even ldquoPascalrsquos wagerrdquo but this title should be taken merely as a re-
erence to its original inspiration not as a claim that I am providing a
verbatim reproduction o Pascalrsquos thought Indeed the wager Irsquoll present
takes advantage o cutting-edge work in philosophy and psychology andrecent sociological data unavailable to Pascal and it is thereore able to
greatly improve on his rather sketchy note Since itrsquos impossible to explain
the wager clearly without using some concepts rom decision theory
thatrsquos where wersquoll begin
D983141983139983145983155983145983151983150 T983144983141983151983154983161
Decision theory is about how to make good decisions in circumstances orisk or uncertainty Tree concepts are especially important states strat-
egies and outcomes A state is a possible way things might be (it will rain
today or it wonrsquot rain today) a strategy is a possible action the decider
might take (bring my umbrella or leave it at home) An outcome is a situ-
ation that results when a given strategy is taken and a certain state is actual
(eg the situation o being stuck in the rain without an umbrella) In order
to assess the suitability o the various available strategies the decision
maker attempts to orm a judgment about how valuable the various out-
comes are
For example suppose I offer you a bet I ask a trusted third party to flip
a air coin but not to tell us whether it lands heads or tails Ten I ask you
to decide either to play (that is participate in the bet) or pass I you choose
to play it will cost you one dollar but i you play and the coin has come up
heads you will get your dollar back and I will pay you two more dollars so
you will be up two dollars I you choose to play and the coin comes up tails
however I will keep your dollar so you will be down one dollar I on the
other hand you choose to pass no money will change hands either way
Would you take my bet
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8520181048630 983137983147983145 983150983143 P983137983155983139983137 983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
I bet you would Decision theory allows us to say precisely why the bet is
avorable or you Tere are two possible states or you to consider it could
be that the coin has come up heads and it could be that it has come up tailsAt the time you make your decision you donrsquot know which state is the actual
way things are but you do know that itrsquos one or the other Next there are
two possible strategies you can adopt play or pass Corresponding to the
our possible combinations o these states and strategies there are our pos-
sible situations that may resultmdashthese are the outcomes (983089) you play the
game and the coin is heads and so you win two dollars (1048626) you play the
game and the coin is tails so you lose one dollar (1048627) you pass and the coinis heads so you neither gain nor lose and (1048628) you pass and the coin is tails
so you neither gain nor lose In considering the question o what to do the
decision maker is invited to evaluate the outcomes Tat is the decision
maker attempts to estimate how valuable the various outcomes are In this
case the monetary value o outcome 983089 or you is two dollars or outcome 1048626
it is minus one dollar and or outcomes 1048627 and 1048628 zero In the case o most
actual decisions values other than money are at stake But starting with an
example using money is a good way to get an initial grasp o decision theory
Decision theorists commonly use a ldquodecision matrixrdquo to sum up inor-
mation relevant to a decision In our case we need a two-by-two matrix Te
columns correspond to the two possible states o the world and the rows
correspond to the two strategies you might take In the cells we write down
the valuations o the resulting outcomes
Heads Tails
PlayOutcome 1
$2Outcome 2
$-1
PassOutcome 3
$0Outcome 4
$0
Figure 983089983089
Should you play or pass I you only had one dollar to your name and
needed it to buy ood lest you starve then it might not be wise to play But
i yoursquore in ordinary circumstances and the loss o a dollar would be no great
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A Curious Of fer 852018852023
loss then itrsquos rational to play Intuitively this is because yoursquove got an equal
chance o gaining and losing and i you gain you gain twice what you would
lose i you lost More precisely itrsquos because the expected value o playing ishigher than the expected value o passing Te expected value o a strategy
or a given game or bet is the average value per game that would accrue to
you i you played the game an infinite number o times and adopted that
strategy every time Here the expected value o the strategy ldquoplayrdquo can be
calculated by multiplying the probability o each state by the value o its
corresponding outcome and adding up the products So the expected value
o ldquoplayrdquo is equal to
(frac12) times (1048626) + (frac12) times (minus983089) = 1048629983088
I you were offered this bet a large number o times and you chose ldquoplayrdquo
every time yoursquod win an average o about fify cents per game Te expected
value o passing by contrast is
(frac12) times (983088) + (frac12) times (983088) = 983088
One reason playing is a good bet here is that the expected value o playing
(fify cents) is more than the expected value o passing (zero cents) Now as
it turns out itrsquos not always rational to take the strategy that maximizes onersquos
expected value11 But maximizing expected value is ofen a good way to
make decisions that involve risk
For the sake o clarity Irsquove illustrated the concepts o a state a strategy an
outcome and a decision matrix by giving an example with precise monetary
values or outcomes and with definite probabilities assigned to the possiblestates in question In real lie we usually donrsquot have precise probabilities to
assign to the states and much (perhaps most) o what we care about canrsquot
be valued in monetary terms Even in such cases however there are prin-
ciples that can guide our decision making
One such principle is at play when we say things like ldquoIrsquoll do X because it
canrsquot hurt and it might helprdquo or ldquoYou should do Y because therersquos nothing to
lose and maybe a lot to gainrdquo Suppose yoursquove borrowed your riendrsquos bicycleand have cycled to a store on the edge o town You put the lock around the
bike and a parking sign and as yoursquore lifing the key to lock up the bike it
occurs to you that this part o town is very sae and therersquos hardly any chance
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the bike will be stolen Besides when yoursquore inside the bike will be in your
view through the store window As you finish thinking this yoursquove also just
put the key into the lock So should you lock up the bike You donrsquot have anyprecise knowledge about the probability o thef in the circumstances and
while you could estimate the value o the bike therersquos no obvious way to
calculate the disvalue your riend would experience i your negligence got his
bike stolen Despite your lack o knowledge on those points though itrsquos clear
enough what you should do all you have to do to lock the bike is turn your
wrist A decision theorist could map out your situation like this
A thief will happen by A thief wont happen by
Lock Nothing bad happens Nothing bad happens
Dontlock
Bike stolen (probably) Nothing bad happens
Figure 983089 983090
I a motivated capable thie is in act coming along the strategy o locking
will result in a ar better outcome while i such a thie wonrsquot happen by locking
is no worse than unlocking (by the time o your decision itrsquos just so easy to
lock that therersquos no cost to locking) In the language o game theory we say
that the strategy o locking ldquoweakly dominatesrdquo the strategy o not locking
One strategy weakly dominates another i (and only i) there is at least one
possible state o the world on which the first strategy delivers a better outcome
than the second and there are no possible states o the world on which the
first strategy delivers a worse outcome than second In other words depending
on how things turn out adopting a weakly dominant strategy will either end
up yielding a better result than adopting the other strategy would have or it
will end up yielding a result that is just as good as what yoursquod have gotten with
the other strategy In a situation o uncertainty when we donrsquot know which o
several possible states o the world is the true one it is always better to adopt
a weakly dominant strategy instead o the strategy it dominates
In case yoursquore wondering one strategy strongly dominates another
strategy i and only i it delivers a better outcome on every possible state o
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A Curious Of fer 8520181048633
the world O course strongly dominant strategies are even more preerable
than weakly dominant strategies when you can get them
Decision theorists have other principles to help guide us in uncertaintyBut itrsquos worth noting that in some cases we donrsquot need a general principle
Sometimes we can just see what the smart thing to do is especially i wersquove
laid out the inormation in a decision matrix For example suppose again
that a trusted third party flips a coin or us but doesnrsquot say whether it lands
heads or tails Now imagine that I credibly make you this offer i you choose
to play and itrsquos heads then Irsquoll give you a million dollars while yoursquoll owe
me one dollar i itrsquos tails and yoursquove chosen to play I you choose to pass nomoney is exchanged either way We could represent this with the matrix
Heads Tails
PlayOutcome 1
$1000000Outcome 2
$-1
PassOutcome 3
$0Outcome 4
$0
Figure 983089 983091
Here we canrsquot say that playing weakly dominates passing because i the
coin is tails you do slightly better by passing But itrsquos one dollar wersquore talking
about Strictly speaking playing is not a weakly dominant strategy here but
itrsquos close enough Te payoff is so much greater i the coin is heads and the
loss is so little i itrsquos tails that itrsquos clearly rational to play Perhaps we couldstate a precise universally valid principle that would apply in this case and
tell us what to do but we donrsquot really need one we can just see what the
smart move is Tis insight will prove helpul later on
With these preliminaries behind us we can now turn to the wager A
consideration o this argument will allow us to see that Christian com-
mitment is recommended by reason so long as the available evidence makes
it at least as likely as not that the central claims o Christianity are true
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it is fleeting and open to serious doubt In those cases it makes good sense
to spend some time examining arguments and publicly available evidence
relating to questions about God and religion According to Christianityaith is a gif But or the person who does not have aith a careul look at
arguments or (and against) Christianity is a natural and reasonable step to
take Examination o evidence can also be worthwhile or the person who
does have aith but has doubts too In what ollows I give an extended
presentation o evidence or the truth o Christianity and a rigorous ar-
gument or the reasonableness o Christian commitment
While this book will ocus on the rational case or Christianity itrsquos im-portant to acknowledge that there are many actors involved in a decision
to commit to a Christian way o lie actors that go beyond impersonal
philosophical reasoning Onersquos upbringing onersquos experiences with indi-
vidual Christians the attitudes and views o onersquos closest riends and amily
onersquos emotional lie onersquos deep-seated hopes and ears and onersquos own par-
ticular way o viewing the worldmdashall o these come into play when one
encounters the message o Jesus I believe that the philosophical argumen-tation contained in this book will be helpul to many people but philo-
sophical argumentation is only one part o a larger picture When it comes
to religion logic may or may not be where one starts but itrsquos certainly not
where one should end Living a Christian lie is an act o the whole personmdash
mind and heart body and soul Still precisely because a Christian lie in-
volves the whole person there is a place or the mind and thus or reason
evidence and logic
Finally a ew words are called or regarding a concept that will play a
key role in what ollows probability Everyone has many belies but some
o those belies are held more confidently than others For example I be-
lieve that Irsquoll still be alive twenty-our hours rom now Irsquom not absolutely
certain I will be but nonetheless I do believe it I also believe Irsquoll be alive
twenty-our days rom now But Irsquom less confident in this belie than in my
belie about being alive twenty-our hours rom now How about twenty-
our years rom now In my case I wouldnrsquot say that I believe Irsquoll be alive
twenty-our years rom now I also donrsquot believe I wonrsquot be alive twenty-
our years rom nowmdashtherersquos just not enough inormation to orm a belie
one way or the other
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Introduction 852017852023
Philosophers sometimes use the language o ldquolevels o confidencerdquo when
discussing belies and probability Levels o confidence come in a scale rom
zero to one (or 983088 percent to 983089983088983088 percent) o be absolutely certain o some-thing (eg 983089 + 983089 = 1048626) is to assign it a level o confidence o 983089 o be absolutely
certain a claim is alse (eg 983089 + 983089 = 9830891048631) is to assign it a level o confidence o
983088 In such a situation one could say that the probability o the claim is 983088
percent Terersquos just no chance that yoursquove gotten conused and ldquo983089 + 983089 = 9830891048631rdquo
is really true What about a proposition like ldquothis normal penny will come
up heads when I flip itrdquo Here itrsquos reasonable to assign equal levels o confi-
dence both to this claim and to the claim that the penny will come up tailsSo wersquod assign both claims a level o confidence o 9830881048629 and we could say that
the chance the coin will be heads is 1048629983088 percent How confident am I that this
six-sided die will show either a 983089 or a 1048626 when I roll it 104862710486271048627 percent You get
the idea
Te word probability will come up ofen in this book Irsquoll sometimes also
talk about how likely something is or what the chance is that such-and-such
is true Unless otherwise noted these are all just different ways to talk aboutthe same thing what philosophers call epistemic probability Roughly the
epistemic probability o a proposition (that is a statement or a claim) is the
level o confidence itrsquos reasonable to assign to that proposition3
Probability evidence moral heroism commitment all o these actors
will enter into our discussion o the reasonableness o Christian theism But
enough with introductory matters On to deeper waters
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- Part One -
UNCERTAINTY
and
COMMITMENT
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- 983089 -
A CURIOUS OFFER
I983149983137983143983145983150983141 983156983144983137983156 983151983150983141 983140983137983161 you receive a phone call rom a abulously
wealthy individualmdashan eccentric billionaire known or spending his money
in odd and trivial ways He makes you a curious offer You are to determine
the religion you think most likely to be true and then practice that religion
devoutly attend religious services read the sacred scriptures o that religion
pray as that religion prescribes and live out the religionrsquos moral teachings
And he asks you to do this or the rest o your lie His part o the bargainwill be to place 983076983089983088 billion in an escrow account to be deliverable on your
death to whatever persons or causes you have named You can leave the
money to your amily or to a charitable organization or to scientific re-
search or any combination o the above whatever you think best I you
choose not to enter into the bargain he adds he will be using the money to
hire tens o thousands o artists to paint millions and millions o mediocre
oil paintings o his pet dog ScoutO course i this actually happened to you yoursquod be a mite skeptical But
imagine that afer due diligence you became convinced that this was no joke
And the billionaire clarified that you did not have to lie or otherwise mis-
represent yoursel in order to ulfill your side o the bargain I or example
you chose Christianity as the religion you thought most likely to be true you
would not have to recite the creed during the liturgy i you did not believe
it And your prayers could be conditional as in ldquoI yoursquore there God thank
you or this and please help me with thatrdquo An odd offer to be sure but also
in all probability the only chance yoursquoll ever have to direct 983076983089983088 billion o
wealth to persons or causes you care about So what would you do Would
you accept the offer
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Perhaps the act that the payoff is mere monetary gain gives you pause
Good or you to trade onersquos religious devotion or money would be base But
remember that you can name whatever beneficiary yoursquod like includingcharitable organizations that work with the poorest o the poor You can
trade your religious devotion or ood or the starving or education or
impoverished children in the developing world On board yet Say that the
billionaire adds that he doesnrsquot want to make this offer i you already happen
to be certain or almost certain that God does not exist His offer is only or
people who can say o some particular religion that there is at least a decent
chance that it is trueNow consider an alternative scenario Suppose that rom the get-go the
billionaire had offered you a different bargain the payoff is not a guaranteed
983076983089983088 billion but a 1048629983088 percent shot at 983076983089983088983088 billion Tat is suppose the bil-
lionairersquos side o the bargain is to put 983076983089983088983088 billion in an escrow account Ten
afer your death a air coin will be flipped I it comes up heads the entire
983076983089983088983088 billion will be given to your named beneficiary or beneficiaries I tails
then wersquoll have a lot o pictures o Scout Would you accept this offerHold on to that thought
Te overarching question o this book is the question o whether there is
good reason to make a serious commitment to living a Christian lie In part
two wersquoll take a tour o the evidence or Christianity But beore that the
question to ask first is ldquoHow much evidence would be required to make a
Christian commitment reasonablerdquo As Irsquoll try to show here in part one a
serious Christian commitment is recommended by reason even i there is
as little as a 1048629983088 percent chance that Christianity is true In other words i
you are willing to grant that Christianity is at least as likely as not then it is
rational or you to commit to living a devout Christian lie Indeed i yoursquore
in ordinary circumstances it is irrational or you not to1
P983137983155983139983137983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
Te argument Irsquoll give or this conclusion has its roots in the reflections o
seventeenth-century polymath Blaise Pascal Pascal made important contri-
butions in mathematics probability theory and physics His work on fluid
mechanics was instrumental in the later invention o the hydraulic press
and he himsel designed and built one o the first mechanical calculating
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A Curious Of fer 852018852019
machines an early precursor to the digital computer (Interestingly the
principles used in the machine are still employed in many automobile
odometers) Pascal was an inventor an intellectual and a scientist He wasalso a deeply religious man At the age o thirty-one he had a powerul mys-
tical experience o God He described the experience in a note and stitched
the note into his coat keeping it close to him He evidently transerred the
paper note (together with a cleaner copy he put down on parchment) rom
coat to coat or the rest o his liemdasha servant ound them afer his death
Pascal suffered rom ill health dying at only thirty-nine In his final years
he was drafing a work o apologetics Te disorganized ragments that werehis notes or the project were published posthumously and quickly became
a classic Pascalrsquos Pensees (French or ldquothoughtsrdquo)2 In one o those ragments
Pascal gives an argument not or the theoretical conclusion that God exists
but or the practical conclusion that one should live a devout Christian lie
Te argument is addressed to those who arenrsquot sure whether Christianity is
true or alse and has come to be known as Pascalrsquos wager o be precise the
ragment contains the seeds o our different arguments in support o reli-gious commitment3 Te strongest version comes down to this It is rational
to seek a relationship with God and live a deeply Christian lie because there
is very much to gain and relatively little to lose In chapter two Irsquoll present a
strengthened and expanded version o this argument I Christianity is
indeed true then by committing to live a Christian lie one brings great joy
to God and all others in heaven raises the chance that one will be with God
orever raises the chance that one will help others attain union with God
expresses gratitude to God and becomes more aware o Godrsquos love and more
receptive to his help in the course o onersquos earthly lie On the other hand i
Christianity is alse the person who commits his or her lie to Jesusrsquo teachings
has still lived a worthwhile lie striving or moral excellence and experi-
encing the benefits o religious community (benefits that contemporary
sociological research reveals to be significant)
Pascalrsquos pragmatic argument in support o religious commitment has had
its share o critics Tus the amous English philosopher G E Moore ldquo[Con-
cerning Pascalrsquos claim that] in our state o doubt we should decide or that
belie which promises the greater reward I have nothing to say o it except
that it seems to me absolutely wickedrdquo4 Voltaire thought the wager was
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ldquosomewhat indecent and childish Te idea o gaming o losing or winning
is quite unsuitable to the dignity o the subjectrdquo5 In much the same vein an
earlier French critic had complained ldquoI lose patience listening to youtreating the highest o all matters and resting the most important truth in
the world the source o all truths on an idea so base and puerile on a com-
parison with a game o heads and tails more productive o mirth than per-
suasionrdquo6 More recently Christopher Hitchens sees Pascalrsquos theology as ldquonot
ar short o sordidrdquo7 remarking that ldquoPascal reminds me o the hypocrites
and rauds who abound in almudic Jewish rationalization Donrsquot do any
work on the Sabbath yoursel but pay someone else to do it You obeyed theletter o the law whorsquos countingrdquo8
Are these objections air Mathematician James Franklin suggests that
Pascalrsquos actual view is ofen replaced with an unflattering caricature o the
wager Franklin contrasts these two views
What Pascal said You have to choose whether to accept religion Tink o it
as a coin toss where you donrsquot know the outcome In this case i you losemdash
therersquos no Godmdashyou have not lost much But i you win there is an infinitepayoff So you should go to Mass and pray or aith [Franklinrsquos paraphrase]
Pascal caricatured Being base and greedy we want lots o goodies in this
lie and i possible the next So we are prepared to give up some pleasures
now on the off chance o a lot more later i our eye to the main chance makes
it look worth our while Since the loot on offer is infinite even a small chance
o raking it in makes it worth a try to grovel to any deity that might do what
we want9
Franklin makes a good point Pascalrsquos argument is ofen interpreted in
the worst possible light Still there are legitimate objections to consider
even when Pascalrsquos reasoning is interpreted airly It may be that it is im-
moral to allow any considerations about cost and benefit to affect what we
believe Perhaps a respect or truth requires that our belies be determined
by evidence and evidence alone Second we must consider whether the
costs o committing to God are simply too high And perhaps the most
common criticism is that Pascal illicitly assumed there were only two op-
tions to consider atheism and (Catholic) Christianity Te many gods ob-
jection as itrsquos ofen called contends that the multitude o possibly true reli-
gions makes trouble or Pascal
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A Curious Of fer 852018852021
In chapters three and our Irsquoll elaborate on these and additional objec-
tions and respond to them But first we need to lay the basic argument
out on the table in more detail and with greater precision In order togive the strongest argument possible Irsquoll set aside the analysis o Pascalrsquos
text and instead develop a Pascalian argument in my own way10 Just or
the sake o having a handy title Irsquoll reer to my argument as ldquothe wagerrdquo
or even ldquoPascalrsquos wagerrdquo but this title should be taken merely as a re-
erence to its original inspiration not as a claim that I am providing a
verbatim reproduction o Pascalrsquos thought Indeed the wager Irsquoll present
takes advantage o cutting-edge work in philosophy and psychology andrecent sociological data unavailable to Pascal and it is thereore able to
greatly improve on his rather sketchy note Since itrsquos impossible to explain
the wager clearly without using some concepts rom decision theory
thatrsquos where wersquoll begin
D983141983139983145983155983145983151983150 T983144983141983151983154983161
Decision theory is about how to make good decisions in circumstances orisk or uncertainty Tree concepts are especially important states strat-
egies and outcomes A state is a possible way things might be (it will rain
today or it wonrsquot rain today) a strategy is a possible action the decider
might take (bring my umbrella or leave it at home) An outcome is a situ-
ation that results when a given strategy is taken and a certain state is actual
(eg the situation o being stuck in the rain without an umbrella) In order
to assess the suitability o the various available strategies the decision
maker attempts to orm a judgment about how valuable the various out-
comes are
For example suppose I offer you a bet I ask a trusted third party to flip
a air coin but not to tell us whether it lands heads or tails Ten I ask you
to decide either to play (that is participate in the bet) or pass I you choose
to play it will cost you one dollar but i you play and the coin has come up
heads you will get your dollar back and I will pay you two more dollars so
you will be up two dollars I you choose to play and the coin comes up tails
however I will keep your dollar so you will be down one dollar I on the
other hand you choose to pass no money will change hands either way
Would you take my bet
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I bet you would Decision theory allows us to say precisely why the bet is
avorable or you Tere are two possible states or you to consider it could
be that the coin has come up heads and it could be that it has come up tailsAt the time you make your decision you donrsquot know which state is the actual
way things are but you do know that itrsquos one or the other Next there are
two possible strategies you can adopt play or pass Corresponding to the
our possible combinations o these states and strategies there are our pos-
sible situations that may resultmdashthese are the outcomes (983089) you play the
game and the coin is heads and so you win two dollars (1048626) you play the
game and the coin is tails so you lose one dollar (1048627) you pass and the coinis heads so you neither gain nor lose and (1048628) you pass and the coin is tails
so you neither gain nor lose In considering the question o what to do the
decision maker is invited to evaluate the outcomes Tat is the decision
maker attempts to estimate how valuable the various outcomes are In this
case the monetary value o outcome 983089 or you is two dollars or outcome 1048626
it is minus one dollar and or outcomes 1048627 and 1048628 zero In the case o most
actual decisions values other than money are at stake But starting with an
example using money is a good way to get an initial grasp o decision theory
Decision theorists commonly use a ldquodecision matrixrdquo to sum up inor-
mation relevant to a decision In our case we need a two-by-two matrix Te
columns correspond to the two possible states o the world and the rows
correspond to the two strategies you might take In the cells we write down
the valuations o the resulting outcomes
Heads Tails
PlayOutcome 1
$2Outcome 2
$-1
PassOutcome 3
$0Outcome 4
$0
Figure 983089983089
Should you play or pass I you only had one dollar to your name and
needed it to buy ood lest you starve then it might not be wise to play But
i yoursquore in ordinary circumstances and the loss o a dollar would be no great
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A Curious Of fer 852018852023
loss then itrsquos rational to play Intuitively this is because yoursquove got an equal
chance o gaining and losing and i you gain you gain twice what you would
lose i you lost More precisely itrsquos because the expected value o playing ishigher than the expected value o passing Te expected value o a strategy
or a given game or bet is the average value per game that would accrue to
you i you played the game an infinite number o times and adopted that
strategy every time Here the expected value o the strategy ldquoplayrdquo can be
calculated by multiplying the probability o each state by the value o its
corresponding outcome and adding up the products So the expected value
o ldquoplayrdquo is equal to
(frac12) times (1048626) + (frac12) times (minus983089) = 1048629983088
I you were offered this bet a large number o times and you chose ldquoplayrdquo
every time yoursquod win an average o about fify cents per game Te expected
value o passing by contrast is
(frac12) times (983088) + (frac12) times (983088) = 983088
One reason playing is a good bet here is that the expected value o playing
(fify cents) is more than the expected value o passing (zero cents) Now as
it turns out itrsquos not always rational to take the strategy that maximizes onersquos
expected value11 But maximizing expected value is ofen a good way to
make decisions that involve risk
For the sake o clarity Irsquove illustrated the concepts o a state a strategy an
outcome and a decision matrix by giving an example with precise monetary
values or outcomes and with definite probabilities assigned to the possiblestates in question In real lie we usually donrsquot have precise probabilities to
assign to the states and much (perhaps most) o what we care about canrsquot
be valued in monetary terms Even in such cases however there are prin-
ciples that can guide our decision making
One such principle is at play when we say things like ldquoIrsquoll do X because it
canrsquot hurt and it might helprdquo or ldquoYou should do Y because therersquos nothing to
lose and maybe a lot to gainrdquo Suppose yoursquove borrowed your riendrsquos bicycleand have cycled to a store on the edge o town You put the lock around the
bike and a parking sign and as yoursquore lifing the key to lock up the bike it
occurs to you that this part o town is very sae and therersquos hardly any chance
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the bike will be stolen Besides when yoursquore inside the bike will be in your
view through the store window As you finish thinking this yoursquove also just
put the key into the lock So should you lock up the bike You donrsquot have anyprecise knowledge about the probability o thef in the circumstances and
while you could estimate the value o the bike therersquos no obvious way to
calculate the disvalue your riend would experience i your negligence got his
bike stolen Despite your lack o knowledge on those points though itrsquos clear
enough what you should do all you have to do to lock the bike is turn your
wrist A decision theorist could map out your situation like this
A thief will happen by A thief wont happen by
Lock Nothing bad happens Nothing bad happens
Dontlock
Bike stolen (probably) Nothing bad happens
Figure 983089 983090
I a motivated capable thie is in act coming along the strategy o locking
will result in a ar better outcome while i such a thie wonrsquot happen by locking
is no worse than unlocking (by the time o your decision itrsquos just so easy to
lock that therersquos no cost to locking) In the language o game theory we say
that the strategy o locking ldquoweakly dominatesrdquo the strategy o not locking
One strategy weakly dominates another i (and only i) there is at least one
possible state o the world on which the first strategy delivers a better outcome
than the second and there are no possible states o the world on which the
first strategy delivers a worse outcome than second In other words depending
on how things turn out adopting a weakly dominant strategy will either end
up yielding a better result than adopting the other strategy would have or it
will end up yielding a result that is just as good as what yoursquod have gotten with
the other strategy In a situation o uncertainty when we donrsquot know which o
several possible states o the world is the true one it is always better to adopt
a weakly dominant strategy instead o the strategy it dominates
In case yoursquore wondering one strategy strongly dominates another
strategy i and only i it delivers a better outcome on every possible state o
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A Curious Of fer 8520181048633
the world O course strongly dominant strategies are even more preerable
than weakly dominant strategies when you can get them
Decision theorists have other principles to help guide us in uncertaintyBut itrsquos worth noting that in some cases we donrsquot need a general principle
Sometimes we can just see what the smart thing to do is especially i wersquove
laid out the inormation in a decision matrix For example suppose again
that a trusted third party flips a coin or us but doesnrsquot say whether it lands
heads or tails Now imagine that I credibly make you this offer i you choose
to play and itrsquos heads then Irsquoll give you a million dollars while yoursquoll owe
me one dollar i itrsquos tails and yoursquove chosen to play I you choose to pass nomoney is exchanged either way We could represent this with the matrix
Heads Tails
PlayOutcome 1
$1000000Outcome 2
$-1
PassOutcome 3
$0Outcome 4
$0
Figure 983089 983091
Here we canrsquot say that playing weakly dominates passing because i the
coin is tails you do slightly better by passing But itrsquos one dollar wersquore talking
about Strictly speaking playing is not a weakly dominant strategy here but
itrsquos close enough Te payoff is so much greater i the coin is heads and the
loss is so little i itrsquos tails that itrsquos clearly rational to play Perhaps we couldstate a precise universally valid principle that would apply in this case and
tell us what to do but we donrsquot really need one we can just see what the
smart move is Tis insight will prove helpul later on
With these preliminaries behind us we can now turn to the wager A
consideration o this argument will allow us to see that Christian com-
mitment is recommended by reason so long as the available evidence makes
it at least as likely as not that the central claims o Christianity are true
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Introduction 852017852023
Philosophers sometimes use the language o ldquolevels o confidencerdquo when
discussing belies and probability Levels o confidence come in a scale rom
zero to one (or 983088 percent to 983089983088983088 percent) o be absolutely certain o some-thing (eg 983089 + 983089 = 1048626) is to assign it a level o confidence o 983089 o be absolutely
certain a claim is alse (eg 983089 + 983089 = 9830891048631) is to assign it a level o confidence o
983088 In such a situation one could say that the probability o the claim is 983088
percent Terersquos just no chance that yoursquove gotten conused and ldquo983089 + 983089 = 9830891048631rdquo
is really true What about a proposition like ldquothis normal penny will come
up heads when I flip itrdquo Here itrsquos reasonable to assign equal levels o confi-
dence both to this claim and to the claim that the penny will come up tailsSo wersquod assign both claims a level o confidence o 9830881048629 and we could say that
the chance the coin will be heads is 1048629983088 percent How confident am I that this
six-sided die will show either a 983089 or a 1048626 when I roll it 104862710486271048627 percent You get
the idea
Te word probability will come up ofen in this book Irsquoll sometimes also
talk about how likely something is or what the chance is that such-and-such
is true Unless otherwise noted these are all just different ways to talk aboutthe same thing what philosophers call epistemic probability Roughly the
epistemic probability o a proposition (that is a statement or a claim) is the
level o confidence itrsquos reasonable to assign to that proposition3
Probability evidence moral heroism commitment all o these actors
will enter into our discussion o the reasonableness o Christian theism But
enough with introductory matters On to deeper waters
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- Part One -
UNCERTAINTY
and
COMMITMENT
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- 983089 -
A CURIOUS OFFER
I983149983137983143983145983150983141 983156983144983137983156 983151983150983141 983140983137983161 you receive a phone call rom a abulously
wealthy individualmdashan eccentric billionaire known or spending his money
in odd and trivial ways He makes you a curious offer You are to determine
the religion you think most likely to be true and then practice that religion
devoutly attend religious services read the sacred scriptures o that religion
pray as that religion prescribes and live out the religionrsquos moral teachings
And he asks you to do this or the rest o your lie His part o the bargainwill be to place 983076983089983088 billion in an escrow account to be deliverable on your
death to whatever persons or causes you have named You can leave the
money to your amily or to a charitable organization or to scientific re-
search or any combination o the above whatever you think best I you
choose not to enter into the bargain he adds he will be using the money to
hire tens o thousands o artists to paint millions and millions o mediocre
oil paintings o his pet dog ScoutO course i this actually happened to you yoursquod be a mite skeptical But
imagine that afer due diligence you became convinced that this was no joke
And the billionaire clarified that you did not have to lie or otherwise mis-
represent yoursel in order to ulfill your side o the bargain I or example
you chose Christianity as the religion you thought most likely to be true you
would not have to recite the creed during the liturgy i you did not believe
it And your prayers could be conditional as in ldquoI yoursquore there God thank
you or this and please help me with thatrdquo An odd offer to be sure but also
in all probability the only chance yoursquoll ever have to direct 983076983089983088 billion o
wealth to persons or causes you care about So what would you do Would
you accept the offer
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Perhaps the act that the payoff is mere monetary gain gives you pause
Good or you to trade onersquos religious devotion or money would be base But
remember that you can name whatever beneficiary yoursquod like includingcharitable organizations that work with the poorest o the poor You can
trade your religious devotion or ood or the starving or education or
impoverished children in the developing world On board yet Say that the
billionaire adds that he doesnrsquot want to make this offer i you already happen
to be certain or almost certain that God does not exist His offer is only or
people who can say o some particular religion that there is at least a decent
chance that it is trueNow consider an alternative scenario Suppose that rom the get-go the
billionaire had offered you a different bargain the payoff is not a guaranteed
983076983089983088 billion but a 1048629983088 percent shot at 983076983089983088983088 billion Tat is suppose the bil-
lionairersquos side o the bargain is to put 983076983089983088983088 billion in an escrow account Ten
afer your death a air coin will be flipped I it comes up heads the entire
983076983089983088983088 billion will be given to your named beneficiary or beneficiaries I tails
then wersquoll have a lot o pictures o Scout Would you accept this offerHold on to that thought
Te overarching question o this book is the question o whether there is
good reason to make a serious commitment to living a Christian lie In part
two wersquoll take a tour o the evidence or Christianity But beore that the
question to ask first is ldquoHow much evidence would be required to make a
Christian commitment reasonablerdquo As Irsquoll try to show here in part one a
serious Christian commitment is recommended by reason even i there is
as little as a 1048629983088 percent chance that Christianity is true In other words i
you are willing to grant that Christianity is at least as likely as not then it is
rational or you to commit to living a devout Christian lie Indeed i yoursquore
in ordinary circumstances it is irrational or you not to1
P983137983155983139983137983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
Te argument Irsquoll give or this conclusion has its roots in the reflections o
seventeenth-century polymath Blaise Pascal Pascal made important contri-
butions in mathematics probability theory and physics His work on fluid
mechanics was instrumental in the later invention o the hydraulic press
and he himsel designed and built one o the first mechanical calculating
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A Curious Of fer 852018852019
machines an early precursor to the digital computer (Interestingly the
principles used in the machine are still employed in many automobile
odometers) Pascal was an inventor an intellectual and a scientist He wasalso a deeply religious man At the age o thirty-one he had a powerul mys-
tical experience o God He described the experience in a note and stitched
the note into his coat keeping it close to him He evidently transerred the
paper note (together with a cleaner copy he put down on parchment) rom
coat to coat or the rest o his liemdasha servant ound them afer his death
Pascal suffered rom ill health dying at only thirty-nine In his final years
he was drafing a work o apologetics Te disorganized ragments that werehis notes or the project were published posthumously and quickly became
a classic Pascalrsquos Pensees (French or ldquothoughtsrdquo)2 In one o those ragments
Pascal gives an argument not or the theoretical conclusion that God exists
but or the practical conclusion that one should live a devout Christian lie
Te argument is addressed to those who arenrsquot sure whether Christianity is
true or alse and has come to be known as Pascalrsquos wager o be precise the
ragment contains the seeds o our different arguments in support o reli-gious commitment3 Te strongest version comes down to this It is rational
to seek a relationship with God and live a deeply Christian lie because there
is very much to gain and relatively little to lose In chapter two Irsquoll present a
strengthened and expanded version o this argument I Christianity is
indeed true then by committing to live a Christian lie one brings great joy
to God and all others in heaven raises the chance that one will be with God
orever raises the chance that one will help others attain union with God
expresses gratitude to God and becomes more aware o Godrsquos love and more
receptive to his help in the course o onersquos earthly lie On the other hand i
Christianity is alse the person who commits his or her lie to Jesusrsquo teachings
has still lived a worthwhile lie striving or moral excellence and experi-
encing the benefits o religious community (benefits that contemporary
sociological research reveals to be significant)
Pascalrsquos pragmatic argument in support o religious commitment has had
its share o critics Tus the amous English philosopher G E Moore ldquo[Con-
cerning Pascalrsquos claim that] in our state o doubt we should decide or that
belie which promises the greater reward I have nothing to say o it except
that it seems to me absolutely wickedrdquo4 Voltaire thought the wager was
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852018852020 983137983147983145 983150983143 P983137983155983139983137 983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
ldquosomewhat indecent and childish Te idea o gaming o losing or winning
is quite unsuitable to the dignity o the subjectrdquo5 In much the same vein an
earlier French critic had complained ldquoI lose patience listening to youtreating the highest o all matters and resting the most important truth in
the world the source o all truths on an idea so base and puerile on a com-
parison with a game o heads and tails more productive o mirth than per-
suasionrdquo6 More recently Christopher Hitchens sees Pascalrsquos theology as ldquonot
ar short o sordidrdquo7 remarking that ldquoPascal reminds me o the hypocrites
and rauds who abound in almudic Jewish rationalization Donrsquot do any
work on the Sabbath yoursel but pay someone else to do it You obeyed theletter o the law whorsquos countingrdquo8
Are these objections air Mathematician James Franklin suggests that
Pascalrsquos actual view is ofen replaced with an unflattering caricature o the
wager Franklin contrasts these two views
What Pascal said You have to choose whether to accept religion Tink o it
as a coin toss where you donrsquot know the outcome In this case i you losemdash
therersquos no Godmdashyou have not lost much But i you win there is an infinitepayoff So you should go to Mass and pray or aith [Franklinrsquos paraphrase]
Pascal caricatured Being base and greedy we want lots o goodies in this
lie and i possible the next So we are prepared to give up some pleasures
now on the off chance o a lot more later i our eye to the main chance makes
it look worth our while Since the loot on offer is infinite even a small chance
o raking it in makes it worth a try to grovel to any deity that might do what
we want9
Franklin makes a good point Pascalrsquos argument is ofen interpreted in
the worst possible light Still there are legitimate objections to consider
even when Pascalrsquos reasoning is interpreted airly It may be that it is im-
moral to allow any considerations about cost and benefit to affect what we
believe Perhaps a respect or truth requires that our belies be determined
by evidence and evidence alone Second we must consider whether the
costs o committing to God are simply too high And perhaps the most
common criticism is that Pascal illicitly assumed there were only two op-
tions to consider atheism and (Catholic) Christianity Te many gods ob-
jection as itrsquos ofen called contends that the multitude o possibly true reli-
gions makes trouble or Pascal
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A Curious Of fer 852018852021
In chapters three and our Irsquoll elaborate on these and additional objec-
tions and respond to them But first we need to lay the basic argument
out on the table in more detail and with greater precision In order togive the strongest argument possible Irsquoll set aside the analysis o Pascalrsquos
text and instead develop a Pascalian argument in my own way10 Just or
the sake o having a handy title Irsquoll reer to my argument as ldquothe wagerrdquo
or even ldquoPascalrsquos wagerrdquo but this title should be taken merely as a re-
erence to its original inspiration not as a claim that I am providing a
verbatim reproduction o Pascalrsquos thought Indeed the wager Irsquoll present
takes advantage o cutting-edge work in philosophy and psychology andrecent sociological data unavailable to Pascal and it is thereore able to
greatly improve on his rather sketchy note Since itrsquos impossible to explain
the wager clearly without using some concepts rom decision theory
thatrsquos where wersquoll begin
D983141983139983145983155983145983151983150 T983144983141983151983154983161
Decision theory is about how to make good decisions in circumstances orisk or uncertainty Tree concepts are especially important states strat-
egies and outcomes A state is a possible way things might be (it will rain
today or it wonrsquot rain today) a strategy is a possible action the decider
might take (bring my umbrella or leave it at home) An outcome is a situ-
ation that results when a given strategy is taken and a certain state is actual
(eg the situation o being stuck in the rain without an umbrella) In order
to assess the suitability o the various available strategies the decision
maker attempts to orm a judgment about how valuable the various out-
comes are
For example suppose I offer you a bet I ask a trusted third party to flip
a air coin but not to tell us whether it lands heads or tails Ten I ask you
to decide either to play (that is participate in the bet) or pass I you choose
to play it will cost you one dollar but i you play and the coin has come up
heads you will get your dollar back and I will pay you two more dollars so
you will be up two dollars I you choose to play and the coin comes up tails
however I will keep your dollar so you will be down one dollar I on the
other hand you choose to pass no money will change hands either way
Would you take my bet
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8520181048630 983137983147983145 983150983143 P983137983155983139983137 983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
I bet you would Decision theory allows us to say precisely why the bet is
avorable or you Tere are two possible states or you to consider it could
be that the coin has come up heads and it could be that it has come up tailsAt the time you make your decision you donrsquot know which state is the actual
way things are but you do know that itrsquos one or the other Next there are
two possible strategies you can adopt play or pass Corresponding to the
our possible combinations o these states and strategies there are our pos-
sible situations that may resultmdashthese are the outcomes (983089) you play the
game and the coin is heads and so you win two dollars (1048626) you play the
game and the coin is tails so you lose one dollar (1048627) you pass and the coinis heads so you neither gain nor lose and (1048628) you pass and the coin is tails
so you neither gain nor lose In considering the question o what to do the
decision maker is invited to evaluate the outcomes Tat is the decision
maker attempts to estimate how valuable the various outcomes are In this
case the monetary value o outcome 983089 or you is two dollars or outcome 1048626
it is minus one dollar and or outcomes 1048627 and 1048628 zero In the case o most
actual decisions values other than money are at stake But starting with an
example using money is a good way to get an initial grasp o decision theory
Decision theorists commonly use a ldquodecision matrixrdquo to sum up inor-
mation relevant to a decision In our case we need a two-by-two matrix Te
columns correspond to the two possible states o the world and the rows
correspond to the two strategies you might take In the cells we write down
the valuations o the resulting outcomes
Heads Tails
PlayOutcome 1
$2Outcome 2
$-1
PassOutcome 3
$0Outcome 4
$0
Figure 983089983089
Should you play or pass I you only had one dollar to your name and
needed it to buy ood lest you starve then it might not be wise to play But
i yoursquore in ordinary circumstances and the loss o a dollar would be no great
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A Curious Of fer 852018852023
loss then itrsquos rational to play Intuitively this is because yoursquove got an equal
chance o gaining and losing and i you gain you gain twice what you would
lose i you lost More precisely itrsquos because the expected value o playing ishigher than the expected value o passing Te expected value o a strategy
or a given game or bet is the average value per game that would accrue to
you i you played the game an infinite number o times and adopted that
strategy every time Here the expected value o the strategy ldquoplayrdquo can be
calculated by multiplying the probability o each state by the value o its
corresponding outcome and adding up the products So the expected value
o ldquoplayrdquo is equal to
(frac12) times (1048626) + (frac12) times (minus983089) = 1048629983088
I you were offered this bet a large number o times and you chose ldquoplayrdquo
every time yoursquod win an average o about fify cents per game Te expected
value o passing by contrast is
(frac12) times (983088) + (frac12) times (983088) = 983088
One reason playing is a good bet here is that the expected value o playing
(fify cents) is more than the expected value o passing (zero cents) Now as
it turns out itrsquos not always rational to take the strategy that maximizes onersquos
expected value11 But maximizing expected value is ofen a good way to
make decisions that involve risk
For the sake o clarity Irsquove illustrated the concepts o a state a strategy an
outcome and a decision matrix by giving an example with precise monetary
values or outcomes and with definite probabilities assigned to the possiblestates in question In real lie we usually donrsquot have precise probabilities to
assign to the states and much (perhaps most) o what we care about canrsquot
be valued in monetary terms Even in such cases however there are prin-
ciples that can guide our decision making
One such principle is at play when we say things like ldquoIrsquoll do X because it
canrsquot hurt and it might helprdquo or ldquoYou should do Y because therersquos nothing to
lose and maybe a lot to gainrdquo Suppose yoursquove borrowed your riendrsquos bicycleand have cycled to a store on the edge o town You put the lock around the
bike and a parking sign and as yoursquore lifing the key to lock up the bike it
occurs to you that this part o town is very sae and therersquos hardly any chance
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the bike will be stolen Besides when yoursquore inside the bike will be in your
view through the store window As you finish thinking this yoursquove also just
put the key into the lock So should you lock up the bike You donrsquot have anyprecise knowledge about the probability o thef in the circumstances and
while you could estimate the value o the bike therersquos no obvious way to
calculate the disvalue your riend would experience i your negligence got his
bike stolen Despite your lack o knowledge on those points though itrsquos clear
enough what you should do all you have to do to lock the bike is turn your
wrist A decision theorist could map out your situation like this
A thief will happen by A thief wont happen by
Lock Nothing bad happens Nothing bad happens
Dontlock
Bike stolen (probably) Nothing bad happens
Figure 983089 983090
I a motivated capable thie is in act coming along the strategy o locking
will result in a ar better outcome while i such a thie wonrsquot happen by locking
is no worse than unlocking (by the time o your decision itrsquos just so easy to
lock that therersquos no cost to locking) In the language o game theory we say
that the strategy o locking ldquoweakly dominatesrdquo the strategy o not locking
One strategy weakly dominates another i (and only i) there is at least one
possible state o the world on which the first strategy delivers a better outcome
than the second and there are no possible states o the world on which the
first strategy delivers a worse outcome than second In other words depending
on how things turn out adopting a weakly dominant strategy will either end
up yielding a better result than adopting the other strategy would have or it
will end up yielding a result that is just as good as what yoursquod have gotten with
the other strategy In a situation o uncertainty when we donrsquot know which o
several possible states o the world is the true one it is always better to adopt
a weakly dominant strategy instead o the strategy it dominates
In case yoursquore wondering one strategy strongly dominates another
strategy i and only i it delivers a better outcome on every possible state o
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A Curious Of fer 8520181048633
the world O course strongly dominant strategies are even more preerable
than weakly dominant strategies when you can get them
Decision theorists have other principles to help guide us in uncertaintyBut itrsquos worth noting that in some cases we donrsquot need a general principle
Sometimes we can just see what the smart thing to do is especially i wersquove
laid out the inormation in a decision matrix For example suppose again
that a trusted third party flips a coin or us but doesnrsquot say whether it lands
heads or tails Now imagine that I credibly make you this offer i you choose
to play and itrsquos heads then Irsquoll give you a million dollars while yoursquoll owe
me one dollar i itrsquos tails and yoursquove chosen to play I you choose to pass nomoney is exchanged either way We could represent this with the matrix
Heads Tails
PlayOutcome 1
$1000000Outcome 2
$-1
PassOutcome 3
$0Outcome 4
$0
Figure 983089 983091
Here we canrsquot say that playing weakly dominates passing because i the
coin is tails you do slightly better by passing But itrsquos one dollar wersquore talking
about Strictly speaking playing is not a weakly dominant strategy here but
itrsquos close enough Te payoff is so much greater i the coin is heads and the
loss is so little i itrsquos tails that itrsquos clearly rational to play Perhaps we couldstate a precise universally valid principle that would apply in this case and
tell us what to do but we donrsquot really need one we can just see what the
smart move is Tis insight will prove helpul later on
With these preliminaries behind us we can now turn to the wager A
consideration o this argument will allow us to see that Christian com-
mitment is recommended by reason so long as the available evidence makes
it at least as likely as not that the central claims o Christianity are true
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- Part One -
UNCERTAINTY
and
COMMITMENT
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- 983089 -
A CURIOUS OFFER
I983149983137983143983145983150983141 983156983144983137983156 983151983150983141 983140983137983161 you receive a phone call rom a abulously
wealthy individualmdashan eccentric billionaire known or spending his money
in odd and trivial ways He makes you a curious offer You are to determine
the religion you think most likely to be true and then practice that religion
devoutly attend religious services read the sacred scriptures o that religion
pray as that religion prescribes and live out the religionrsquos moral teachings
And he asks you to do this or the rest o your lie His part o the bargainwill be to place 983076983089983088 billion in an escrow account to be deliverable on your
death to whatever persons or causes you have named You can leave the
money to your amily or to a charitable organization or to scientific re-
search or any combination o the above whatever you think best I you
choose not to enter into the bargain he adds he will be using the money to
hire tens o thousands o artists to paint millions and millions o mediocre
oil paintings o his pet dog ScoutO course i this actually happened to you yoursquod be a mite skeptical But
imagine that afer due diligence you became convinced that this was no joke
And the billionaire clarified that you did not have to lie or otherwise mis-
represent yoursel in order to ulfill your side o the bargain I or example
you chose Christianity as the religion you thought most likely to be true you
would not have to recite the creed during the liturgy i you did not believe
it And your prayers could be conditional as in ldquoI yoursquore there God thank
you or this and please help me with thatrdquo An odd offer to be sure but also
in all probability the only chance yoursquoll ever have to direct 983076983089983088 billion o
wealth to persons or causes you care about So what would you do Would
you accept the offer
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852018852018 983137983147983145 983150983143 P983137983155983139983137 983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
Perhaps the act that the payoff is mere monetary gain gives you pause
Good or you to trade onersquos religious devotion or money would be base But
remember that you can name whatever beneficiary yoursquod like includingcharitable organizations that work with the poorest o the poor You can
trade your religious devotion or ood or the starving or education or
impoverished children in the developing world On board yet Say that the
billionaire adds that he doesnrsquot want to make this offer i you already happen
to be certain or almost certain that God does not exist His offer is only or
people who can say o some particular religion that there is at least a decent
chance that it is trueNow consider an alternative scenario Suppose that rom the get-go the
billionaire had offered you a different bargain the payoff is not a guaranteed
983076983089983088 billion but a 1048629983088 percent shot at 983076983089983088983088 billion Tat is suppose the bil-
lionairersquos side o the bargain is to put 983076983089983088983088 billion in an escrow account Ten
afer your death a air coin will be flipped I it comes up heads the entire
983076983089983088983088 billion will be given to your named beneficiary or beneficiaries I tails
then wersquoll have a lot o pictures o Scout Would you accept this offerHold on to that thought
Te overarching question o this book is the question o whether there is
good reason to make a serious commitment to living a Christian lie In part
two wersquoll take a tour o the evidence or Christianity But beore that the
question to ask first is ldquoHow much evidence would be required to make a
Christian commitment reasonablerdquo As Irsquoll try to show here in part one a
serious Christian commitment is recommended by reason even i there is
as little as a 1048629983088 percent chance that Christianity is true In other words i
you are willing to grant that Christianity is at least as likely as not then it is
rational or you to commit to living a devout Christian lie Indeed i yoursquore
in ordinary circumstances it is irrational or you not to1
P983137983155983139983137983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
Te argument Irsquoll give or this conclusion has its roots in the reflections o
seventeenth-century polymath Blaise Pascal Pascal made important contri-
butions in mathematics probability theory and physics His work on fluid
mechanics was instrumental in the later invention o the hydraulic press
and he himsel designed and built one o the first mechanical calculating
Copyrighted Material wwwivpresscompermissions
8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
httpslidepdfcomreaderfulltaking-pascals-wager-by-michael-rota 1724
A Curious Of fer 852018852019
machines an early precursor to the digital computer (Interestingly the
principles used in the machine are still employed in many automobile
odometers) Pascal was an inventor an intellectual and a scientist He wasalso a deeply religious man At the age o thirty-one he had a powerul mys-
tical experience o God He described the experience in a note and stitched
the note into his coat keeping it close to him He evidently transerred the
paper note (together with a cleaner copy he put down on parchment) rom
coat to coat or the rest o his liemdasha servant ound them afer his death
Pascal suffered rom ill health dying at only thirty-nine In his final years
he was drafing a work o apologetics Te disorganized ragments that werehis notes or the project were published posthumously and quickly became
a classic Pascalrsquos Pensees (French or ldquothoughtsrdquo)2 In one o those ragments
Pascal gives an argument not or the theoretical conclusion that God exists
but or the practical conclusion that one should live a devout Christian lie
Te argument is addressed to those who arenrsquot sure whether Christianity is
true or alse and has come to be known as Pascalrsquos wager o be precise the
ragment contains the seeds o our different arguments in support o reli-gious commitment3 Te strongest version comes down to this It is rational
to seek a relationship with God and live a deeply Christian lie because there
is very much to gain and relatively little to lose In chapter two Irsquoll present a
strengthened and expanded version o this argument I Christianity is
indeed true then by committing to live a Christian lie one brings great joy
to God and all others in heaven raises the chance that one will be with God
orever raises the chance that one will help others attain union with God
expresses gratitude to God and becomes more aware o Godrsquos love and more
receptive to his help in the course o onersquos earthly lie On the other hand i
Christianity is alse the person who commits his or her lie to Jesusrsquo teachings
has still lived a worthwhile lie striving or moral excellence and experi-
encing the benefits o religious community (benefits that contemporary
sociological research reveals to be significant)
Pascalrsquos pragmatic argument in support o religious commitment has had
its share o critics Tus the amous English philosopher G E Moore ldquo[Con-
cerning Pascalrsquos claim that] in our state o doubt we should decide or that
belie which promises the greater reward I have nothing to say o it except
that it seems to me absolutely wickedrdquo4 Voltaire thought the wager was
Copyrighted Material wwwivpresscompermissions
8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
httpslidepdfcomreaderfulltaking-pascals-wager-by-michael-rota 1824
852018852020 983137983147983145 983150983143 P983137983155983139983137 983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
ldquosomewhat indecent and childish Te idea o gaming o losing or winning
is quite unsuitable to the dignity o the subjectrdquo5 In much the same vein an
earlier French critic had complained ldquoI lose patience listening to youtreating the highest o all matters and resting the most important truth in
the world the source o all truths on an idea so base and puerile on a com-
parison with a game o heads and tails more productive o mirth than per-
suasionrdquo6 More recently Christopher Hitchens sees Pascalrsquos theology as ldquonot
ar short o sordidrdquo7 remarking that ldquoPascal reminds me o the hypocrites
and rauds who abound in almudic Jewish rationalization Donrsquot do any
work on the Sabbath yoursel but pay someone else to do it You obeyed theletter o the law whorsquos countingrdquo8
Are these objections air Mathematician James Franklin suggests that
Pascalrsquos actual view is ofen replaced with an unflattering caricature o the
wager Franklin contrasts these two views
What Pascal said You have to choose whether to accept religion Tink o it
as a coin toss where you donrsquot know the outcome In this case i you losemdash
therersquos no Godmdashyou have not lost much But i you win there is an infinitepayoff So you should go to Mass and pray or aith [Franklinrsquos paraphrase]
Pascal caricatured Being base and greedy we want lots o goodies in this
lie and i possible the next So we are prepared to give up some pleasures
now on the off chance o a lot more later i our eye to the main chance makes
it look worth our while Since the loot on offer is infinite even a small chance
o raking it in makes it worth a try to grovel to any deity that might do what
we want9
Franklin makes a good point Pascalrsquos argument is ofen interpreted in
the worst possible light Still there are legitimate objections to consider
even when Pascalrsquos reasoning is interpreted airly It may be that it is im-
moral to allow any considerations about cost and benefit to affect what we
believe Perhaps a respect or truth requires that our belies be determined
by evidence and evidence alone Second we must consider whether the
costs o committing to God are simply too high And perhaps the most
common criticism is that Pascal illicitly assumed there were only two op-
tions to consider atheism and (Catholic) Christianity Te many gods ob-
jection as itrsquos ofen called contends that the multitude o possibly true reli-
gions makes trouble or Pascal
Copyrighted Material wwwivpresscompermissions
8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
httpslidepdfcomreaderfulltaking-pascals-wager-by-michael-rota 1924
A Curious Of fer 852018852021
In chapters three and our Irsquoll elaborate on these and additional objec-
tions and respond to them But first we need to lay the basic argument
out on the table in more detail and with greater precision In order togive the strongest argument possible Irsquoll set aside the analysis o Pascalrsquos
text and instead develop a Pascalian argument in my own way10 Just or
the sake o having a handy title Irsquoll reer to my argument as ldquothe wagerrdquo
or even ldquoPascalrsquos wagerrdquo but this title should be taken merely as a re-
erence to its original inspiration not as a claim that I am providing a
verbatim reproduction o Pascalrsquos thought Indeed the wager Irsquoll present
takes advantage o cutting-edge work in philosophy and psychology andrecent sociological data unavailable to Pascal and it is thereore able to
greatly improve on his rather sketchy note Since itrsquos impossible to explain
the wager clearly without using some concepts rom decision theory
thatrsquos where wersquoll begin
D983141983139983145983155983145983151983150 T983144983141983151983154983161
Decision theory is about how to make good decisions in circumstances orisk or uncertainty Tree concepts are especially important states strat-
egies and outcomes A state is a possible way things might be (it will rain
today or it wonrsquot rain today) a strategy is a possible action the decider
might take (bring my umbrella or leave it at home) An outcome is a situ-
ation that results when a given strategy is taken and a certain state is actual
(eg the situation o being stuck in the rain without an umbrella) In order
to assess the suitability o the various available strategies the decision
maker attempts to orm a judgment about how valuable the various out-
comes are
For example suppose I offer you a bet I ask a trusted third party to flip
a air coin but not to tell us whether it lands heads or tails Ten I ask you
to decide either to play (that is participate in the bet) or pass I you choose
to play it will cost you one dollar but i you play and the coin has come up
heads you will get your dollar back and I will pay you two more dollars so
you will be up two dollars I you choose to play and the coin comes up tails
however I will keep your dollar so you will be down one dollar I on the
other hand you choose to pass no money will change hands either way
Would you take my bet
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8520181048630 983137983147983145 983150983143 P983137983155983139983137 983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
I bet you would Decision theory allows us to say precisely why the bet is
avorable or you Tere are two possible states or you to consider it could
be that the coin has come up heads and it could be that it has come up tailsAt the time you make your decision you donrsquot know which state is the actual
way things are but you do know that itrsquos one or the other Next there are
two possible strategies you can adopt play or pass Corresponding to the
our possible combinations o these states and strategies there are our pos-
sible situations that may resultmdashthese are the outcomes (983089) you play the
game and the coin is heads and so you win two dollars (1048626) you play the
game and the coin is tails so you lose one dollar (1048627) you pass and the coinis heads so you neither gain nor lose and (1048628) you pass and the coin is tails
so you neither gain nor lose In considering the question o what to do the
decision maker is invited to evaluate the outcomes Tat is the decision
maker attempts to estimate how valuable the various outcomes are In this
case the monetary value o outcome 983089 or you is two dollars or outcome 1048626
it is minus one dollar and or outcomes 1048627 and 1048628 zero In the case o most
actual decisions values other than money are at stake But starting with an
example using money is a good way to get an initial grasp o decision theory
Decision theorists commonly use a ldquodecision matrixrdquo to sum up inor-
mation relevant to a decision In our case we need a two-by-two matrix Te
columns correspond to the two possible states o the world and the rows
correspond to the two strategies you might take In the cells we write down
the valuations o the resulting outcomes
Heads Tails
PlayOutcome 1
$2Outcome 2
$-1
PassOutcome 3
$0Outcome 4
$0
Figure 983089983089
Should you play or pass I you only had one dollar to your name and
needed it to buy ood lest you starve then it might not be wise to play But
i yoursquore in ordinary circumstances and the loss o a dollar would be no great
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8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
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A Curious Of fer 852018852023
loss then itrsquos rational to play Intuitively this is because yoursquove got an equal
chance o gaining and losing and i you gain you gain twice what you would
lose i you lost More precisely itrsquos because the expected value o playing ishigher than the expected value o passing Te expected value o a strategy
or a given game or bet is the average value per game that would accrue to
you i you played the game an infinite number o times and adopted that
strategy every time Here the expected value o the strategy ldquoplayrdquo can be
calculated by multiplying the probability o each state by the value o its
corresponding outcome and adding up the products So the expected value
o ldquoplayrdquo is equal to
(frac12) times (1048626) + (frac12) times (minus983089) = 1048629983088
I you were offered this bet a large number o times and you chose ldquoplayrdquo
every time yoursquod win an average o about fify cents per game Te expected
value o passing by contrast is
(frac12) times (983088) + (frac12) times (983088) = 983088
One reason playing is a good bet here is that the expected value o playing
(fify cents) is more than the expected value o passing (zero cents) Now as
it turns out itrsquos not always rational to take the strategy that maximizes onersquos
expected value11 But maximizing expected value is ofen a good way to
make decisions that involve risk
For the sake o clarity Irsquove illustrated the concepts o a state a strategy an
outcome and a decision matrix by giving an example with precise monetary
values or outcomes and with definite probabilities assigned to the possiblestates in question In real lie we usually donrsquot have precise probabilities to
assign to the states and much (perhaps most) o what we care about canrsquot
be valued in monetary terms Even in such cases however there are prin-
ciples that can guide our decision making
One such principle is at play when we say things like ldquoIrsquoll do X because it
canrsquot hurt and it might helprdquo or ldquoYou should do Y because therersquos nothing to
lose and maybe a lot to gainrdquo Suppose yoursquove borrowed your riendrsquos bicycleand have cycled to a store on the edge o town You put the lock around the
bike and a parking sign and as yoursquore lifing the key to lock up the bike it
occurs to you that this part o town is very sae and therersquos hardly any chance
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8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
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8520181048632 983137983147983145 983150983143 P983137983155983139983137 983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
the bike will be stolen Besides when yoursquore inside the bike will be in your
view through the store window As you finish thinking this yoursquove also just
put the key into the lock So should you lock up the bike You donrsquot have anyprecise knowledge about the probability o thef in the circumstances and
while you could estimate the value o the bike therersquos no obvious way to
calculate the disvalue your riend would experience i your negligence got his
bike stolen Despite your lack o knowledge on those points though itrsquos clear
enough what you should do all you have to do to lock the bike is turn your
wrist A decision theorist could map out your situation like this
A thief will happen by A thief wont happen by
Lock Nothing bad happens Nothing bad happens
Dontlock
Bike stolen (probably) Nothing bad happens
Figure 983089 983090
I a motivated capable thie is in act coming along the strategy o locking
will result in a ar better outcome while i such a thie wonrsquot happen by locking
is no worse than unlocking (by the time o your decision itrsquos just so easy to
lock that therersquos no cost to locking) In the language o game theory we say
that the strategy o locking ldquoweakly dominatesrdquo the strategy o not locking
One strategy weakly dominates another i (and only i) there is at least one
possible state o the world on which the first strategy delivers a better outcome
than the second and there are no possible states o the world on which the
first strategy delivers a worse outcome than second In other words depending
on how things turn out adopting a weakly dominant strategy will either end
up yielding a better result than adopting the other strategy would have or it
will end up yielding a result that is just as good as what yoursquod have gotten with
the other strategy In a situation o uncertainty when we donrsquot know which o
several possible states o the world is the true one it is always better to adopt
a weakly dominant strategy instead o the strategy it dominates
In case yoursquore wondering one strategy strongly dominates another
strategy i and only i it delivers a better outcome on every possible state o
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8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
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A Curious Of fer 8520181048633
the world O course strongly dominant strategies are even more preerable
than weakly dominant strategies when you can get them
Decision theorists have other principles to help guide us in uncertaintyBut itrsquos worth noting that in some cases we donrsquot need a general principle
Sometimes we can just see what the smart thing to do is especially i wersquove
laid out the inormation in a decision matrix For example suppose again
that a trusted third party flips a coin or us but doesnrsquot say whether it lands
heads or tails Now imagine that I credibly make you this offer i you choose
to play and itrsquos heads then Irsquoll give you a million dollars while yoursquoll owe
me one dollar i itrsquos tails and yoursquove chosen to play I you choose to pass nomoney is exchanged either way We could represent this with the matrix
Heads Tails
PlayOutcome 1
$1000000Outcome 2
$-1
PassOutcome 3
$0Outcome 4
$0
Figure 983089 983091
Here we canrsquot say that playing weakly dominates passing because i the
coin is tails you do slightly better by passing But itrsquos one dollar wersquore talking
about Strictly speaking playing is not a weakly dominant strategy here but
itrsquos close enough Te payoff is so much greater i the coin is heads and the
loss is so little i itrsquos tails that itrsquos clearly rational to play Perhaps we couldstate a precise universally valid principle that would apply in this case and
tell us what to do but we donrsquot really need one we can just see what the
smart move is Tis insight will prove helpul later on
With these preliminaries behind us we can now turn to the wager A
consideration o this argument will allow us to see that Christian com-
mitment is recommended by reason so long as the available evidence makes
it at least as likely as not that the central claims o Christianity are true
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8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
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8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
httpslidepdfcomreaderfulltaking-pascals-wager-by-michael-rota 1524
- 983089 -
A CURIOUS OFFER
I983149983137983143983145983150983141 983156983144983137983156 983151983150983141 983140983137983161 you receive a phone call rom a abulously
wealthy individualmdashan eccentric billionaire known or spending his money
in odd and trivial ways He makes you a curious offer You are to determine
the religion you think most likely to be true and then practice that religion
devoutly attend religious services read the sacred scriptures o that religion
pray as that religion prescribes and live out the religionrsquos moral teachings
And he asks you to do this or the rest o your lie His part o the bargainwill be to place 983076983089983088 billion in an escrow account to be deliverable on your
death to whatever persons or causes you have named You can leave the
money to your amily or to a charitable organization or to scientific re-
search or any combination o the above whatever you think best I you
choose not to enter into the bargain he adds he will be using the money to
hire tens o thousands o artists to paint millions and millions o mediocre
oil paintings o his pet dog ScoutO course i this actually happened to you yoursquod be a mite skeptical But
imagine that afer due diligence you became convinced that this was no joke
And the billionaire clarified that you did not have to lie or otherwise mis-
represent yoursel in order to ulfill your side o the bargain I or example
you chose Christianity as the religion you thought most likely to be true you
would not have to recite the creed during the liturgy i you did not believe
it And your prayers could be conditional as in ldquoI yoursquore there God thank
you or this and please help me with thatrdquo An odd offer to be sure but also
in all probability the only chance yoursquoll ever have to direct 983076983089983088 billion o
wealth to persons or causes you care about So what would you do Would
you accept the offer
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8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
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852018852018 983137983147983145 983150983143 P983137983155983139983137 983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
Perhaps the act that the payoff is mere monetary gain gives you pause
Good or you to trade onersquos religious devotion or money would be base But
remember that you can name whatever beneficiary yoursquod like includingcharitable organizations that work with the poorest o the poor You can
trade your religious devotion or ood or the starving or education or
impoverished children in the developing world On board yet Say that the
billionaire adds that he doesnrsquot want to make this offer i you already happen
to be certain or almost certain that God does not exist His offer is only or
people who can say o some particular religion that there is at least a decent
chance that it is trueNow consider an alternative scenario Suppose that rom the get-go the
billionaire had offered you a different bargain the payoff is not a guaranteed
983076983089983088 billion but a 1048629983088 percent shot at 983076983089983088983088 billion Tat is suppose the bil-
lionairersquos side o the bargain is to put 983076983089983088983088 billion in an escrow account Ten
afer your death a air coin will be flipped I it comes up heads the entire
983076983089983088983088 billion will be given to your named beneficiary or beneficiaries I tails
then wersquoll have a lot o pictures o Scout Would you accept this offerHold on to that thought
Te overarching question o this book is the question o whether there is
good reason to make a serious commitment to living a Christian lie In part
two wersquoll take a tour o the evidence or Christianity But beore that the
question to ask first is ldquoHow much evidence would be required to make a
Christian commitment reasonablerdquo As Irsquoll try to show here in part one a
serious Christian commitment is recommended by reason even i there is
as little as a 1048629983088 percent chance that Christianity is true In other words i
you are willing to grant that Christianity is at least as likely as not then it is
rational or you to commit to living a devout Christian lie Indeed i yoursquore
in ordinary circumstances it is irrational or you not to1
P983137983155983139983137983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
Te argument Irsquoll give or this conclusion has its roots in the reflections o
seventeenth-century polymath Blaise Pascal Pascal made important contri-
butions in mathematics probability theory and physics His work on fluid
mechanics was instrumental in the later invention o the hydraulic press
and he himsel designed and built one o the first mechanical calculating
Copyrighted Material wwwivpresscompermissions
8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
httpslidepdfcomreaderfulltaking-pascals-wager-by-michael-rota 1724
A Curious Of fer 852018852019
machines an early precursor to the digital computer (Interestingly the
principles used in the machine are still employed in many automobile
odometers) Pascal was an inventor an intellectual and a scientist He wasalso a deeply religious man At the age o thirty-one he had a powerul mys-
tical experience o God He described the experience in a note and stitched
the note into his coat keeping it close to him He evidently transerred the
paper note (together with a cleaner copy he put down on parchment) rom
coat to coat or the rest o his liemdasha servant ound them afer his death
Pascal suffered rom ill health dying at only thirty-nine In his final years
he was drafing a work o apologetics Te disorganized ragments that werehis notes or the project were published posthumously and quickly became
a classic Pascalrsquos Pensees (French or ldquothoughtsrdquo)2 In one o those ragments
Pascal gives an argument not or the theoretical conclusion that God exists
but or the practical conclusion that one should live a devout Christian lie
Te argument is addressed to those who arenrsquot sure whether Christianity is
true or alse and has come to be known as Pascalrsquos wager o be precise the
ragment contains the seeds o our different arguments in support o reli-gious commitment3 Te strongest version comes down to this It is rational
to seek a relationship with God and live a deeply Christian lie because there
is very much to gain and relatively little to lose In chapter two Irsquoll present a
strengthened and expanded version o this argument I Christianity is
indeed true then by committing to live a Christian lie one brings great joy
to God and all others in heaven raises the chance that one will be with God
orever raises the chance that one will help others attain union with God
expresses gratitude to God and becomes more aware o Godrsquos love and more
receptive to his help in the course o onersquos earthly lie On the other hand i
Christianity is alse the person who commits his or her lie to Jesusrsquo teachings
has still lived a worthwhile lie striving or moral excellence and experi-
encing the benefits o religious community (benefits that contemporary
sociological research reveals to be significant)
Pascalrsquos pragmatic argument in support o religious commitment has had
its share o critics Tus the amous English philosopher G E Moore ldquo[Con-
cerning Pascalrsquos claim that] in our state o doubt we should decide or that
belie which promises the greater reward I have nothing to say o it except
that it seems to me absolutely wickedrdquo4 Voltaire thought the wager was
Copyrighted Material wwwivpresscompermissions
8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
httpslidepdfcomreaderfulltaking-pascals-wager-by-michael-rota 1824
852018852020 983137983147983145 983150983143 P983137983155983139983137 983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
ldquosomewhat indecent and childish Te idea o gaming o losing or winning
is quite unsuitable to the dignity o the subjectrdquo5 In much the same vein an
earlier French critic had complained ldquoI lose patience listening to youtreating the highest o all matters and resting the most important truth in
the world the source o all truths on an idea so base and puerile on a com-
parison with a game o heads and tails more productive o mirth than per-
suasionrdquo6 More recently Christopher Hitchens sees Pascalrsquos theology as ldquonot
ar short o sordidrdquo7 remarking that ldquoPascal reminds me o the hypocrites
and rauds who abound in almudic Jewish rationalization Donrsquot do any
work on the Sabbath yoursel but pay someone else to do it You obeyed theletter o the law whorsquos countingrdquo8
Are these objections air Mathematician James Franklin suggests that
Pascalrsquos actual view is ofen replaced with an unflattering caricature o the
wager Franklin contrasts these two views
What Pascal said You have to choose whether to accept religion Tink o it
as a coin toss where you donrsquot know the outcome In this case i you losemdash
therersquos no Godmdashyou have not lost much But i you win there is an infinitepayoff So you should go to Mass and pray or aith [Franklinrsquos paraphrase]
Pascal caricatured Being base and greedy we want lots o goodies in this
lie and i possible the next So we are prepared to give up some pleasures
now on the off chance o a lot more later i our eye to the main chance makes
it look worth our while Since the loot on offer is infinite even a small chance
o raking it in makes it worth a try to grovel to any deity that might do what
we want9
Franklin makes a good point Pascalrsquos argument is ofen interpreted in
the worst possible light Still there are legitimate objections to consider
even when Pascalrsquos reasoning is interpreted airly It may be that it is im-
moral to allow any considerations about cost and benefit to affect what we
believe Perhaps a respect or truth requires that our belies be determined
by evidence and evidence alone Second we must consider whether the
costs o committing to God are simply too high And perhaps the most
common criticism is that Pascal illicitly assumed there were only two op-
tions to consider atheism and (Catholic) Christianity Te many gods ob-
jection as itrsquos ofen called contends that the multitude o possibly true reli-
gions makes trouble or Pascal
Copyrighted Material wwwivpresscompermissions
8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
httpslidepdfcomreaderfulltaking-pascals-wager-by-michael-rota 1924
A Curious Of fer 852018852021
In chapters three and our Irsquoll elaborate on these and additional objec-
tions and respond to them But first we need to lay the basic argument
out on the table in more detail and with greater precision In order togive the strongest argument possible Irsquoll set aside the analysis o Pascalrsquos
text and instead develop a Pascalian argument in my own way10 Just or
the sake o having a handy title Irsquoll reer to my argument as ldquothe wagerrdquo
or even ldquoPascalrsquos wagerrdquo but this title should be taken merely as a re-
erence to its original inspiration not as a claim that I am providing a
verbatim reproduction o Pascalrsquos thought Indeed the wager Irsquoll present
takes advantage o cutting-edge work in philosophy and psychology andrecent sociological data unavailable to Pascal and it is thereore able to
greatly improve on his rather sketchy note Since itrsquos impossible to explain
the wager clearly without using some concepts rom decision theory
thatrsquos where wersquoll begin
D983141983139983145983155983145983151983150 T983144983141983151983154983161
Decision theory is about how to make good decisions in circumstances orisk or uncertainty Tree concepts are especially important states strat-
egies and outcomes A state is a possible way things might be (it will rain
today or it wonrsquot rain today) a strategy is a possible action the decider
might take (bring my umbrella or leave it at home) An outcome is a situ-
ation that results when a given strategy is taken and a certain state is actual
(eg the situation o being stuck in the rain without an umbrella) In order
to assess the suitability o the various available strategies the decision
maker attempts to orm a judgment about how valuable the various out-
comes are
For example suppose I offer you a bet I ask a trusted third party to flip
a air coin but not to tell us whether it lands heads or tails Ten I ask you
to decide either to play (that is participate in the bet) or pass I you choose
to play it will cost you one dollar but i you play and the coin has come up
heads you will get your dollar back and I will pay you two more dollars so
you will be up two dollars I you choose to play and the coin comes up tails
however I will keep your dollar so you will be down one dollar I on the
other hand you choose to pass no money will change hands either way
Would you take my bet
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I bet you would Decision theory allows us to say precisely why the bet is
avorable or you Tere are two possible states or you to consider it could
be that the coin has come up heads and it could be that it has come up tailsAt the time you make your decision you donrsquot know which state is the actual
way things are but you do know that itrsquos one or the other Next there are
two possible strategies you can adopt play or pass Corresponding to the
our possible combinations o these states and strategies there are our pos-
sible situations that may resultmdashthese are the outcomes (983089) you play the
game and the coin is heads and so you win two dollars (1048626) you play the
game and the coin is tails so you lose one dollar (1048627) you pass and the coinis heads so you neither gain nor lose and (1048628) you pass and the coin is tails
so you neither gain nor lose In considering the question o what to do the
decision maker is invited to evaluate the outcomes Tat is the decision
maker attempts to estimate how valuable the various outcomes are In this
case the monetary value o outcome 983089 or you is two dollars or outcome 1048626
it is minus one dollar and or outcomes 1048627 and 1048628 zero In the case o most
actual decisions values other than money are at stake But starting with an
example using money is a good way to get an initial grasp o decision theory
Decision theorists commonly use a ldquodecision matrixrdquo to sum up inor-
mation relevant to a decision In our case we need a two-by-two matrix Te
columns correspond to the two possible states o the world and the rows
correspond to the two strategies you might take In the cells we write down
the valuations o the resulting outcomes
Heads Tails
PlayOutcome 1
$2Outcome 2
$-1
PassOutcome 3
$0Outcome 4
$0
Figure 983089983089
Should you play or pass I you only had one dollar to your name and
needed it to buy ood lest you starve then it might not be wise to play But
i yoursquore in ordinary circumstances and the loss o a dollar would be no great
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A Curious Of fer 852018852023
loss then itrsquos rational to play Intuitively this is because yoursquove got an equal
chance o gaining and losing and i you gain you gain twice what you would
lose i you lost More precisely itrsquos because the expected value o playing ishigher than the expected value o passing Te expected value o a strategy
or a given game or bet is the average value per game that would accrue to
you i you played the game an infinite number o times and adopted that
strategy every time Here the expected value o the strategy ldquoplayrdquo can be
calculated by multiplying the probability o each state by the value o its
corresponding outcome and adding up the products So the expected value
o ldquoplayrdquo is equal to
(frac12) times (1048626) + (frac12) times (minus983089) = 1048629983088
I you were offered this bet a large number o times and you chose ldquoplayrdquo
every time yoursquod win an average o about fify cents per game Te expected
value o passing by contrast is
(frac12) times (983088) + (frac12) times (983088) = 983088
One reason playing is a good bet here is that the expected value o playing
(fify cents) is more than the expected value o passing (zero cents) Now as
it turns out itrsquos not always rational to take the strategy that maximizes onersquos
expected value11 But maximizing expected value is ofen a good way to
make decisions that involve risk
For the sake o clarity Irsquove illustrated the concepts o a state a strategy an
outcome and a decision matrix by giving an example with precise monetary
values or outcomes and with definite probabilities assigned to the possiblestates in question In real lie we usually donrsquot have precise probabilities to
assign to the states and much (perhaps most) o what we care about canrsquot
be valued in monetary terms Even in such cases however there are prin-
ciples that can guide our decision making
One such principle is at play when we say things like ldquoIrsquoll do X because it
canrsquot hurt and it might helprdquo or ldquoYou should do Y because therersquos nothing to
lose and maybe a lot to gainrdquo Suppose yoursquove borrowed your riendrsquos bicycleand have cycled to a store on the edge o town You put the lock around the
bike and a parking sign and as yoursquore lifing the key to lock up the bike it
occurs to you that this part o town is very sae and therersquos hardly any chance
Copyrighted Material wwwivpresscompermissions
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the bike will be stolen Besides when yoursquore inside the bike will be in your
view through the store window As you finish thinking this yoursquove also just
put the key into the lock So should you lock up the bike You donrsquot have anyprecise knowledge about the probability o thef in the circumstances and
while you could estimate the value o the bike therersquos no obvious way to
calculate the disvalue your riend would experience i your negligence got his
bike stolen Despite your lack o knowledge on those points though itrsquos clear
enough what you should do all you have to do to lock the bike is turn your
wrist A decision theorist could map out your situation like this
A thief will happen by A thief wont happen by
Lock Nothing bad happens Nothing bad happens
Dontlock
Bike stolen (probably) Nothing bad happens
Figure 983089 983090
I a motivated capable thie is in act coming along the strategy o locking
will result in a ar better outcome while i such a thie wonrsquot happen by locking
is no worse than unlocking (by the time o your decision itrsquos just so easy to
lock that therersquos no cost to locking) In the language o game theory we say
that the strategy o locking ldquoweakly dominatesrdquo the strategy o not locking
One strategy weakly dominates another i (and only i) there is at least one
possible state o the world on which the first strategy delivers a better outcome
than the second and there are no possible states o the world on which the
first strategy delivers a worse outcome than second In other words depending
on how things turn out adopting a weakly dominant strategy will either end
up yielding a better result than adopting the other strategy would have or it
will end up yielding a result that is just as good as what yoursquod have gotten with
the other strategy In a situation o uncertainty when we donrsquot know which o
several possible states o the world is the true one it is always better to adopt
a weakly dominant strategy instead o the strategy it dominates
In case yoursquore wondering one strategy strongly dominates another
strategy i and only i it delivers a better outcome on every possible state o
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A Curious Of fer 8520181048633
the world O course strongly dominant strategies are even more preerable
than weakly dominant strategies when you can get them
Decision theorists have other principles to help guide us in uncertaintyBut itrsquos worth noting that in some cases we donrsquot need a general principle
Sometimes we can just see what the smart thing to do is especially i wersquove
laid out the inormation in a decision matrix For example suppose again
that a trusted third party flips a coin or us but doesnrsquot say whether it lands
heads or tails Now imagine that I credibly make you this offer i you choose
to play and itrsquos heads then Irsquoll give you a million dollars while yoursquoll owe
me one dollar i itrsquos tails and yoursquove chosen to play I you choose to pass nomoney is exchanged either way We could represent this with the matrix
Heads Tails
PlayOutcome 1
$1000000Outcome 2
$-1
PassOutcome 3
$0Outcome 4
$0
Figure 983089 983091
Here we canrsquot say that playing weakly dominates passing because i the
coin is tails you do slightly better by passing But itrsquos one dollar wersquore talking
about Strictly speaking playing is not a weakly dominant strategy here but
itrsquos close enough Te payoff is so much greater i the coin is heads and the
loss is so little i itrsquos tails that itrsquos clearly rational to play Perhaps we couldstate a precise universally valid principle that would apply in this case and
tell us what to do but we donrsquot really need one we can just see what the
smart move is Tis insight will prove helpul later on
With these preliminaries behind us we can now turn to the wager A
consideration o this argument will allow us to see that Christian com-
mitment is recommended by reason so long as the available evidence makes
it at least as likely as not that the central claims o Christianity are true
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Perhaps the act that the payoff is mere monetary gain gives you pause
Good or you to trade onersquos religious devotion or money would be base But
remember that you can name whatever beneficiary yoursquod like includingcharitable organizations that work with the poorest o the poor You can
trade your religious devotion or ood or the starving or education or
impoverished children in the developing world On board yet Say that the
billionaire adds that he doesnrsquot want to make this offer i you already happen
to be certain or almost certain that God does not exist His offer is only or
people who can say o some particular religion that there is at least a decent
chance that it is trueNow consider an alternative scenario Suppose that rom the get-go the
billionaire had offered you a different bargain the payoff is not a guaranteed
983076983089983088 billion but a 1048629983088 percent shot at 983076983089983088983088 billion Tat is suppose the bil-
lionairersquos side o the bargain is to put 983076983089983088983088 billion in an escrow account Ten
afer your death a air coin will be flipped I it comes up heads the entire
983076983089983088983088 billion will be given to your named beneficiary or beneficiaries I tails
then wersquoll have a lot o pictures o Scout Would you accept this offerHold on to that thought
Te overarching question o this book is the question o whether there is
good reason to make a serious commitment to living a Christian lie In part
two wersquoll take a tour o the evidence or Christianity But beore that the
question to ask first is ldquoHow much evidence would be required to make a
Christian commitment reasonablerdquo As Irsquoll try to show here in part one a
serious Christian commitment is recommended by reason even i there is
as little as a 1048629983088 percent chance that Christianity is true In other words i
you are willing to grant that Christianity is at least as likely as not then it is
rational or you to commit to living a devout Christian lie Indeed i yoursquore
in ordinary circumstances it is irrational or you not to1
P983137983155983139983137983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
Te argument Irsquoll give or this conclusion has its roots in the reflections o
seventeenth-century polymath Blaise Pascal Pascal made important contri-
butions in mathematics probability theory and physics His work on fluid
mechanics was instrumental in the later invention o the hydraulic press
and he himsel designed and built one o the first mechanical calculating
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A Curious Of fer 852018852019
machines an early precursor to the digital computer (Interestingly the
principles used in the machine are still employed in many automobile
odometers) Pascal was an inventor an intellectual and a scientist He wasalso a deeply religious man At the age o thirty-one he had a powerul mys-
tical experience o God He described the experience in a note and stitched
the note into his coat keeping it close to him He evidently transerred the
paper note (together with a cleaner copy he put down on parchment) rom
coat to coat or the rest o his liemdasha servant ound them afer his death
Pascal suffered rom ill health dying at only thirty-nine In his final years
he was drafing a work o apologetics Te disorganized ragments that werehis notes or the project were published posthumously and quickly became
a classic Pascalrsquos Pensees (French or ldquothoughtsrdquo)2 In one o those ragments
Pascal gives an argument not or the theoretical conclusion that God exists
but or the practical conclusion that one should live a devout Christian lie
Te argument is addressed to those who arenrsquot sure whether Christianity is
true or alse and has come to be known as Pascalrsquos wager o be precise the
ragment contains the seeds o our different arguments in support o reli-gious commitment3 Te strongest version comes down to this It is rational
to seek a relationship with God and live a deeply Christian lie because there
is very much to gain and relatively little to lose In chapter two Irsquoll present a
strengthened and expanded version o this argument I Christianity is
indeed true then by committing to live a Christian lie one brings great joy
to God and all others in heaven raises the chance that one will be with God
orever raises the chance that one will help others attain union with God
expresses gratitude to God and becomes more aware o Godrsquos love and more
receptive to his help in the course o onersquos earthly lie On the other hand i
Christianity is alse the person who commits his or her lie to Jesusrsquo teachings
has still lived a worthwhile lie striving or moral excellence and experi-
encing the benefits o religious community (benefits that contemporary
sociological research reveals to be significant)
Pascalrsquos pragmatic argument in support o religious commitment has had
its share o critics Tus the amous English philosopher G E Moore ldquo[Con-
cerning Pascalrsquos claim that] in our state o doubt we should decide or that
belie which promises the greater reward I have nothing to say o it except
that it seems to me absolutely wickedrdquo4 Voltaire thought the wager was
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ldquosomewhat indecent and childish Te idea o gaming o losing or winning
is quite unsuitable to the dignity o the subjectrdquo5 In much the same vein an
earlier French critic had complained ldquoI lose patience listening to youtreating the highest o all matters and resting the most important truth in
the world the source o all truths on an idea so base and puerile on a com-
parison with a game o heads and tails more productive o mirth than per-
suasionrdquo6 More recently Christopher Hitchens sees Pascalrsquos theology as ldquonot
ar short o sordidrdquo7 remarking that ldquoPascal reminds me o the hypocrites
and rauds who abound in almudic Jewish rationalization Donrsquot do any
work on the Sabbath yoursel but pay someone else to do it You obeyed theletter o the law whorsquos countingrdquo8
Are these objections air Mathematician James Franklin suggests that
Pascalrsquos actual view is ofen replaced with an unflattering caricature o the
wager Franklin contrasts these two views
What Pascal said You have to choose whether to accept religion Tink o it
as a coin toss where you donrsquot know the outcome In this case i you losemdash
therersquos no Godmdashyou have not lost much But i you win there is an infinitepayoff So you should go to Mass and pray or aith [Franklinrsquos paraphrase]
Pascal caricatured Being base and greedy we want lots o goodies in this
lie and i possible the next So we are prepared to give up some pleasures
now on the off chance o a lot more later i our eye to the main chance makes
it look worth our while Since the loot on offer is infinite even a small chance
o raking it in makes it worth a try to grovel to any deity that might do what
we want9
Franklin makes a good point Pascalrsquos argument is ofen interpreted in
the worst possible light Still there are legitimate objections to consider
even when Pascalrsquos reasoning is interpreted airly It may be that it is im-
moral to allow any considerations about cost and benefit to affect what we
believe Perhaps a respect or truth requires that our belies be determined
by evidence and evidence alone Second we must consider whether the
costs o committing to God are simply too high And perhaps the most
common criticism is that Pascal illicitly assumed there were only two op-
tions to consider atheism and (Catholic) Christianity Te many gods ob-
jection as itrsquos ofen called contends that the multitude o possibly true reli-
gions makes trouble or Pascal
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A Curious Of fer 852018852021
In chapters three and our Irsquoll elaborate on these and additional objec-
tions and respond to them But first we need to lay the basic argument
out on the table in more detail and with greater precision In order togive the strongest argument possible Irsquoll set aside the analysis o Pascalrsquos
text and instead develop a Pascalian argument in my own way10 Just or
the sake o having a handy title Irsquoll reer to my argument as ldquothe wagerrdquo
or even ldquoPascalrsquos wagerrdquo but this title should be taken merely as a re-
erence to its original inspiration not as a claim that I am providing a
verbatim reproduction o Pascalrsquos thought Indeed the wager Irsquoll present
takes advantage o cutting-edge work in philosophy and psychology andrecent sociological data unavailable to Pascal and it is thereore able to
greatly improve on his rather sketchy note Since itrsquos impossible to explain
the wager clearly without using some concepts rom decision theory
thatrsquos where wersquoll begin
D983141983139983145983155983145983151983150 T983144983141983151983154983161
Decision theory is about how to make good decisions in circumstances orisk or uncertainty Tree concepts are especially important states strat-
egies and outcomes A state is a possible way things might be (it will rain
today or it wonrsquot rain today) a strategy is a possible action the decider
might take (bring my umbrella or leave it at home) An outcome is a situ-
ation that results when a given strategy is taken and a certain state is actual
(eg the situation o being stuck in the rain without an umbrella) In order
to assess the suitability o the various available strategies the decision
maker attempts to orm a judgment about how valuable the various out-
comes are
For example suppose I offer you a bet I ask a trusted third party to flip
a air coin but not to tell us whether it lands heads or tails Ten I ask you
to decide either to play (that is participate in the bet) or pass I you choose
to play it will cost you one dollar but i you play and the coin has come up
heads you will get your dollar back and I will pay you two more dollars so
you will be up two dollars I you choose to play and the coin comes up tails
however I will keep your dollar so you will be down one dollar I on the
other hand you choose to pass no money will change hands either way
Would you take my bet
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I bet you would Decision theory allows us to say precisely why the bet is
avorable or you Tere are two possible states or you to consider it could
be that the coin has come up heads and it could be that it has come up tailsAt the time you make your decision you donrsquot know which state is the actual
way things are but you do know that itrsquos one or the other Next there are
two possible strategies you can adopt play or pass Corresponding to the
our possible combinations o these states and strategies there are our pos-
sible situations that may resultmdashthese are the outcomes (983089) you play the
game and the coin is heads and so you win two dollars (1048626) you play the
game and the coin is tails so you lose one dollar (1048627) you pass and the coinis heads so you neither gain nor lose and (1048628) you pass and the coin is tails
so you neither gain nor lose In considering the question o what to do the
decision maker is invited to evaluate the outcomes Tat is the decision
maker attempts to estimate how valuable the various outcomes are In this
case the monetary value o outcome 983089 or you is two dollars or outcome 1048626
it is minus one dollar and or outcomes 1048627 and 1048628 zero In the case o most
actual decisions values other than money are at stake But starting with an
example using money is a good way to get an initial grasp o decision theory
Decision theorists commonly use a ldquodecision matrixrdquo to sum up inor-
mation relevant to a decision In our case we need a two-by-two matrix Te
columns correspond to the two possible states o the world and the rows
correspond to the two strategies you might take In the cells we write down
the valuations o the resulting outcomes
Heads Tails
PlayOutcome 1
$2Outcome 2
$-1
PassOutcome 3
$0Outcome 4
$0
Figure 983089983089
Should you play or pass I you only had one dollar to your name and
needed it to buy ood lest you starve then it might not be wise to play But
i yoursquore in ordinary circumstances and the loss o a dollar would be no great
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A Curious Of fer 852018852023
loss then itrsquos rational to play Intuitively this is because yoursquove got an equal
chance o gaining and losing and i you gain you gain twice what you would
lose i you lost More precisely itrsquos because the expected value o playing ishigher than the expected value o passing Te expected value o a strategy
or a given game or bet is the average value per game that would accrue to
you i you played the game an infinite number o times and adopted that
strategy every time Here the expected value o the strategy ldquoplayrdquo can be
calculated by multiplying the probability o each state by the value o its
corresponding outcome and adding up the products So the expected value
o ldquoplayrdquo is equal to
(frac12) times (1048626) + (frac12) times (minus983089) = 1048629983088
I you were offered this bet a large number o times and you chose ldquoplayrdquo
every time yoursquod win an average o about fify cents per game Te expected
value o passing by contrast is
(frac12) times (983088) + (frac12) times (983088) = 983088
One reason playing is a good bet here is that the expected value o playing
(fify cents) is more than the expected value o passing (zero cents) Now as
it turns out itrsquos not always rational to take the strategy that maximizes onersquos
expected value11 But maximizing expected value is ofen a good way to
make decisions that involve risk
For the sake o clarity Irsquove illustrated the concepts o a state a strategy an
outcome and a decision matrix by giving an example with precise monetary
values or outcomes and with definite probabilities assigned to the possiblestates in question In real lie we usually donrsquot have precise probabilities to
assign to the states and much (perhaps most) o what we care about canrsquot
be valued in monetary terms Even in such cases however there are prin-
ciples that can guide our decision making
One such principle is at play when we say things like ldquoIrsquoll do X because it
canrsquot hurt and it might helprdquo or ldquoYou should do Y because therersquos nothing to
lose and maybe a lot to gainrdquo Suppose yoursquove borrowed your riendrsquos bicycleand have cycled to a store on the edge o town You put the lock around the
bike and a parking sign and as yoursquore lifing the key to lock up the bike it
occurs to you that this part o town is very sae and therersquos hardly any chance
Copyrighted Material wwwivpresscompermissions
8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
httpslidepdfcomreaderfulltaking-pascals-wager-by-michael-rota 2224
8520181048632 983137983147983145 983150983143 P983137983155983139983137 983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
the bike will be stolen Besides when yoursquore inside the bike will be in your
view through the store window As you finish thinking this yoursquove also just
put the key into the lock So should you lock up the bike You donrsquot have anyprecise knowledge about the probability o thef in the circumstances and
while you could estimate the value o the bike therersquos no obvious way to
calculate the disvalue your riend would experience i your negligence got his
bike stolen Despite your lack o knowledge on those points though itrsquos clear
enough what you should do all you have to do to lock the bike is turn your
wrist A decision theorist could map out your situation like this
A thief will happen by A thief wont happen by
Lock Nothing bad happens Nothing bad happens
Dontlock
Bike stolen (probably) Nothing bad happens
Figure 983089 983090
I a motivated capable thie is in act coming along the strategy o locking
will result in a ar better outcome while i such a thie wonrsquot happen by locking
is no worse than unlocking (by the time o your decision itrsquos just so easy to
lock that therersquos no cost to locking) In the language o game theory we say
that the strategy o locking ldquoweakly dominatesrdquo the strategy o not locking
One strategy weakly dominates another i (and only i) there is at least one
possible state o the world on which the first strategy delivers a better outcome
than the second and there are no possible states o the world on which the
first strategy delivers a worse outcome than second In other words depending
on how things turn out adopting a weakly dominant strategy will either end
up yielding a better result than adopting the other strategy would have or it
will end up yielding a result that is just as good as what yoursquod have gotten with
the other strategy In a situation o uncertainty when we donrsquot know which o
several possible states o the world is the true one it is always better to adopt
a weakly dominant strategy instead o the strategy it dominates
In case yoursquore wondering one strategy strongly dominates another
strategy i and only i it delivers a better outcome on every possible state o
Copyrighted Material wwwivpresscompermissions
8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
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A Curious Of fer 8520181048633
the world O course strongly dominant strategies are even more preerable
than weakly dominant strategies when you can get them
Decision theorists have other principles to help guide us in uncertaintyBut itrsquos worth noting that in some cases we donrsquot need a general principle
Sometimes we can just see what the smart thing to do is especially i wersquove
laid out the inormation in a decision matrix For example suppose again
that a trusted third party flips a coin or us but doesnrsquot say whether it lands
heads or tails Now imagine that I credibly make you this offer i you choose
to play and itrsquos heads then Irsquoll give you a million dollars while yoursquoll owe
me one dollar i itrsquos tails and yoursquove chosen to play I you choose to pass nomoney is exchanged either way We could represent this with the matrix
Heads Tails
PlayOutcome 1
$1000000Outcome 2
$-1
PassOutcome 3
$0Outcome 4
$0
Figure 983089 983091
Here we canrsquot say that playing weakly dominates passing because i the
coin is tails you do slightly better by passing But itrsquos one dollar wersquore talking
about Strictly speaking playing is not a weakly dominant strategy here but
itrsquos close enough Te payoff is so much greater i the coin is heads and the
loss is so little i itrsquos tails that itrsquos clearly rational to play Perhaps we couldstate a precise universally valid principle that would apply in this case and
tell us what to do but we donrsquot really need one we can just see what the
smart move is Tis insight will prove helpul later on
With these preliminaries behind us we can now turn to the wager A
consideration o this argument will allow us to see that Christian com-
mitment is recommended by reason so long as the available evidence makes
it at least as likely as not that the central claims o Christianity are true
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8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
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8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
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A Curious Of fer 852018852019
machines an early precursor to the digital computer (Interestingly the
principles used in the machine are still employed in many automobile
odometers) Pascal was an inventor an intellectual and a scientist He wasalso a deeply religious man At the age o thirty-one he had a powerul mys-
tical experience o God He described the experience in a note and stitched
the note into his coat keeping it close to him He evidently transerred the
paper note (together with a cleaner copy he put down on parchment) rom
coat to coat or the rest o his liemdasha servant ound them afer his death
Pascal suffered rom ill health dying at only thirty-nine In his final years
he was drafing a work o apologetics Te disorganized ragments that werehis notes or the project were published posthumously and quickly became
a classic Pascalrsquos Pensees (French or ldquothoughtsrdquo)2 In one o those ragments
Pascal gives an argument not or the theoretical conclusion that God exists
but or the practical conclusion that one should live a devout Christian lie
Te argument is addressed to those who arenrsquot sure whether Christianity is
true or alse and has come to be known as Pascalrsquos wager o be precise the
ragment contains the seeds o our different arguments in support o reli-gious commitment3 Te strongest version comes down to this It is rational
to seek a relationship with God and live a deeply Christian lie because there
is very much to gain and relatively little to lose In chapter two Irsquoll present a
strengthened and expanded version o this argument I Christianity is
indeed true then by committing to live a Christian lie one brings great joy
to God and all others in heaven raises the chance that one will be with God
orever raises the chance that one will help others attain union with God
expresses gratitude to God and becomes more aware o Godrsquos love and more
receptive to his help in the course o onersquos earthly lie On the other hand i
Christianity is alse the person who commits his or her lie to Jesusrsquo teachings
has still lived a worthwhile lie striving or moral excellence and experi-
encing the benefits o religious community (benefits that contemporary
sociological research reveals to be significant)
Pascalrsquos pragmatic argument in support o religious commitment has had
its share o critics Tus the amous English philosopher G E Moore ldquo[Con-
cerning Pascalrsquos claim that] in our state o doubt we should decide or that
belie which promises the greater reward I have nothing to say o it except
that it seems to me absolutely wickedrdquo4 Voltaire thought the wager was
Copyrighted Material wwwivpresscompermissions
8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
httpslidepdfcomreaderfulltaking-pascals-wager-by-michael-rota 1824
852018852020 983137983147983145 983150983143 P983137983155983139983137 983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
ldquosomewhat indecent and childish Te idea o gaming o losing or winning
is quite unsuitable to the dignity o the subjectrdquo5 In much the same vein an
earlier French critic had complained ldquoI lose patience listening to youtreating the highest o all matters and resting the most important truth in
the world the source o all truths on an idea so base and puerile on a com-
parison with a game o heads and tails more productive o mirth than per-
suasionrdquo6 More recently Christopher Hitchens sees Pascalrsquos theology as ldquonot
ar short o sordidrdquo7 remarking that ldquoPascal reminds me o the hypocrites
and rauds who abound in almudic Jewish rationalization Donrsquot do any
work on the Sabbath yoursel but pay someone else to do it You obeyed theletter o the law whorsquos countingrdquo8
Are these objections air Mathematician James Franklin suggests that
Pascalrsquos actual view is ofen replaced with an unflattering caricature o the
wager Franklin contrasts these two views
What Pascal said You have to choose whether to accept religion Tink o it
as a coin toss where you donrsquot know the outcome In this case i you losemdash
therersquos no Godmdashyou have not lost much But i you win there is an infinitepayoff So you should go to Mass and pray or aith [Franklinrsquos paraphrase]
Pascal caricatured Being base and greedy we want lots o goodies in this
lie and i possible the next So we are prepared to give up some pleasures
now on the off chance o a lot more later i our eye to the main chance makes
it look worth our while Since the loot on offer is infinite even a small chance
o raking it in makes it worth a try to grovel to any deity that might do what
we want9
Franklin makes a good point Pascalrsquos argument is ofen interpreted in
the worst possible light Still there are legitimate objections to consider
even when Pascalrsquos reasoning is interpreted airly It may be that it is im-
moral to allow any considerations about cost and benefit to affect what we
believe Perhaps a respect or truth requires that our belies be determined
by evidence and evidence alone Second we must consider whether the
costs o committing to God are simply too high And perhaps the most
common criticism is that Pascal illicitly assumed there were only two op-
tions to consider atheism and (Catholic) Christianity Te many gods ob-
jection as itrsquos ofen called contends that the multitude o possibly true reli-
gions makes trouble or Pascal
Copyrighted Material wwwivpresscompermissions
8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
httpslidepdfcomreaderfulltaking-pascals-wager-by-michael-rota 1924
A Curious Of fer 852018852021
In chapters three and our Irsquoll elaborate on these and additional objec-
tions and respond to them But first we need to lay the basic argument
out on the table in more detail and with greater precision In order togive the strongest argument possible Irsquoll set aside the analysis o Pascalrsquos
text and instead develop a Pascalian argument in my own way10 Just or
the sake o having a handy title Irsquoll reer to my argument as ldquothe wagerrdquo
or even ldquoPascalrsquos wagerrdquo but this title should be taken merely as a re-
erence to its original inspiration not as a claim that I am providing a
verbatim reproduction o Pascalrsquos thought Indeed the wager Irsquoll present
takes advantage o cutting-edge work in philosophy and psychology andrecent sociological data unavailable to Pascal and it is thereore able to
greatly improve on his rather sketchy note Since itrsquos impossible to explain
the wager clearly without using some concepts rom decision theory
thatrsquos where wersquoll begin
D983141983139983145983155983145983151983150 T983144983141983151983154983161
Decision theory is about how to make good decisions in circumstances orisk or uncertainty Tree concepts are especially important states strat-
egies and outcomes A state is a possible way things might be (it will rain
today or it wonrsquot rain today) a strategy is a possible action the decider
might take (bring my umbrella or leave it at home) An outcome is a situ-
ation that results when a given strategy is taken and a certain state is actual
(eg the situation o being stuck in the rain without an umbrella) In order
to assess the suitability o the various available strategies the decision
maker attempts to orm a judgment about how valuable the various out-
comes are
For example suppose I offer you a bet I ask a trusted third party to flip
a air coin but not to tell us whether it lands heads or tails Ten I ask you
to decide either to play (that is participate in the bet) or pass I you choose
to play it will cost you one dollar but i you play and the coin has come up
heads you will get your dollar back and I will pay you two more dollars so
you will be up two dollars I you choose to play and the coin comes up tails
however I will keep your dollar so you will be down one dollar I on the
other hand you choose to pass no money will change hands either way
Would you take my bet
Copyrighted Material wwwivpresscompermissions
8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
httpslidepdfcomreaderfulltaking-pascals-wager-by-michael-rota 2024
8520181048630 983137983147983145 983150983143 P983137983155983139983137 983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
I bet you would Decision theory allows us to say precisely why the bet is
avorable or you Tere are two possible states or you to consider it could
be that the coin has come up heads and it could be that it has come up tailsAt the time you make your decision you donrsquot know which state is the actual
way things are but you do know that itrsquos one or the other Next there are
two possible strategies you can adopt play or pass Corresponding to the
our possible combinations o these states and strategies there are our pos-
sible situations that may resultmdashthese are the outcomes (983089) you play the
game and the coin is heads and so you win two dollars (1048626) you play the
game and the coin is tails so you lose one dollar (1048627) you pass and the coinis heads so you neither gain nor lose and (1048628) you pass and the coin is tails
so you neither gain nor lose In considering the question o what to do the
decision maker is invited to evaluate the outcomes Tat is the decision
maker attempts to estimate how valuable the various outcomes are In this
case the monetary value o outcome 983089 or you is two dollars or outcome 1048626
it is minus one dollar and or outcomes 1048627 and 1048628 zero In the case o most
actual decisions values other than money are at stake But starting with an
example using money is a good way to get an initial grasp o decision theory
Decision theorists commonly use a ldquodecision matrixrdquo to sum up inor-
mation relevant to a decision In our case we need a two-by-two matrix Te
columns correspond to the two possible states o the world and the rows
correspond to the two strategies you might take In the cells we write down
the valuations o the resulting outcomes
Heads Tails
PlayOutcome 1
$2Outcome 2
$-1
PassOutcome 3
$0Outcome 4
$0
Figure 983089983089
Should you play or pass I you only had one dollar to your name and
needed it to buy ood lest you starve then it might not be wise to play But
i yoursquore in ordinary circumstances and the loss o a dollar would be no great
Copyrighted Material wwwivpresscompermissions
8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
httpslidepdfcomreaderfulltaking-pascals-wager-by-michael-rota 2124
A Curious Of fer 852018852023
loss then itrsquos rational to play Intuitively this is because yoursquove got an equal
chance o gaining and losing and i you gain you gain twice what you would
lose i you lost More precisely itrsquos because the expected value o playing ishigher than the expected value o passing Te expected value o a strategy
or a given game or bet is the average value per game that would accrue to
you i you played the game an infinite number o times and adopted that
strategy every time Here the expected value o the strategy ldquoplayrdquo can be
calculated by multiplying the probability o each state by the value o its
corresponding outcome and adding up the products So the expected value
o ldquoplayrdquo is equal to
(frac12) times (1048626) + (frac12) times (minus983089) = 1048629983088
I you were offered this bet a large number o times and you chose ldquoplayrdquo
every time yoursquod win an average o about fify cents per game Te expected
value o passing by contrast is
(frac12) times (983088) + (frac12) times (983088) = 983088
One reason playing is a good bet here is that the expected value o playing
(fify cents) is more than the expected value o passing (zero cents) Now as
it turns out itrsquos not always rational to take the strategy that maximizes onersquos
expected value11 But maximizing expected value is ofen a good way to
make decisions that involve risk
For the sake o clarity Irsquove illustrated the concepts o a state a strategy an
outcome and a decision matrix by giving an example with precise monetary
values or outcomes and with definite probabilities assigned to the possiblestates in question In real lie we usually donrsquot have precise probabilities to
assign to the states and much (perhaps most) o what we care about canrsquot
be valued in monetary terms Even in such cases however there are prin-
ciples that can guide our decision making
One such principle is at play when we say things like ldquoIrsquoll do X because it
canrsquot hurt and it might helprdquo or ldquoYou should do Y because therersquos nothing to
lose and maybe a lot to gainrdquo Suppose yoursquove borrowed your riendrsquos bicycleand have cycled to a store on the edge o town You put the lock around the
bike and a parking sign and as yoursquore lifing the key to lock up the bike it
occurs to you that this part o town is very sae and therersquos hardly any chance
Copyrighted Material wwwivpresscompermissions
8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
httpslidepdfcomreaderfulltaking-pascals-wager-by-michael-rota 2224
8520181048632 983137983147983145 983150983143 P983137983155983139983137 983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
the bike will be stolen Besides when yoursquore inside the bike will be in your
view through the store window As you finish thinking this yoursquove also just
put the key into the lock So should you lock up the bike You donrsquot have anyprecise knowledge about the probability o thef in the circumstances and
while you could estimate the value o the bike therersquos no obvious way to
calculate the disvalue your riend would experience i your negligence got his
bike stolen Despite your lack o knowledge on those points though itrsquos clear
enough what you should do all you have to do to lock the bike is turn your
wrist A decision theorist could map out your situation like this
A thief will happen by A thief wont happen by
Lock Nothing bad happens Nothing bad happens
Dontlock
Bike stolen (probably) Nothing bad happens
Figure 983089 983090
I a motivated capable thie is in act coming along the strategy o locking
will result in a ar better outcome while i such a thie wonrsquot happen by locking
is no worse than unlocking (by the time o your decision itrsquos just so easy to
lock that therersquos no cost to locking) In the language o game theory we say
that the strategy o locking ldquoweakly dominatesrdquo the strategy o not locking
One strategy weakly dominates another i (and only i) there is at least one
possible state o the world on which the first strategy delivers a better outcome
than the second and there are no possible states o the world on which the
first strategy delivers a worse outcome than second In other words depending
on how things turn out adopting a weakly dominant strategy will either end
up yielding a better result than adopting the other strategy would have or it
will end up yielding a result that is just as good as what yoursquod have gotten with
the other strategy In a situation o uncertainty when we donrsquot know which o
several possible states o the world is the true one it is always better to adopt
a weakly dominant strategy instead o the strategy it dominates
In case yoursquore wondering one strategy strongly dominates another
strategy i and only i it delivers a better outcome on every possible state o
Copyrighted Material wwwivpresscompermissions
8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
httpslidepdfcomreaderfulltaking-pascals-wager-by-michael-rota 2324
A Curious Of fer 8520181048633
the world O course strongly dominant strategies are even more preerable
than weakly dominant strategies when you can get them
Decision theorists have other principles to help guide us in uncertaintyBut itrsquos worth noting that in some cases we donrsquot need a general principle
Sometimes we can just see what the smart thing to do is especially i wersquove
laid out the inormation in a decision matrix For example suppose again
that a trusted third party flips a coin or us but doesnrsquot say whether it lands
heads or tails Now imagine that I credibly make you this offer i you choose
to play and itrsquos heads then Irsquoll give you a million dollars while yoursquoll owe
me one dollar i itrsquos tails and yoursquove chosen to play I you choose to pass nomoney is exchanged either way We could represent this with the matrix
Heads Tails
PlayOutcome 1
$1000000Outcome 2
$-1
PassOutcome 3
$0Outcome 4
$0
Figure 983089 983091
Here we canrsquot say that playing weakly dominates passing because i the
coin is tails you do slightly better by passing But itrsquos one dollar wersquore talking
about Strictly speaking playing is not a weakly dominant strategy here but
itrsquos close enough Te payoff is so much greater i the coin is heads and the
loss is so little i itrsquos tails that itrsquos clearly rational to play Perhaps we couldstate a precise universally valid principle that would apply in this case and
tell us what to do but we donrsquot really need one we can just see what the
smart move is Tis insight will prove helpul later on
With these preliminaries behind us we can now turn to the wager A
consideration o this argument will allow us to see that Christian com-
mitment is recommended by reason so long as the available evidence makes
it at least as likely as not that the central claims o Christianity are true
Copyrighted Material wwwivpresscompermissions
8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
httpslidepdfcomreaderfulltaking-pascals-wager-by-michael-rota 2424
8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
httpslidepdfcomreaderfulltaking-pascals-wager-by-michael-rota 1824
852018852020 983137983147983145 983150983143 P983137983155983139983137 983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
ldquosomewhat indecent and childish Te idea o gaming o losing or winning
is quite unsuitable to the dignity o the subjectrdquo5 In much the same vein an
earlier French critic had complained ldquoI lose patience listening to youtreating the highest o all matters and resting the most important truth in
the world the source o all truths on an idea so base and puerile on a com-
parison with a game o heads and tails more productive o mirth than per-
suasionrdquo6 More recently Christopher Hitchens sees Pascalrsquos theology as ldquonot
ar short o sordidrdquo7 remarking that ldquoPascal reminds me o the hypocrites
and rauds who abound in almudic Jewish rationalization Donrsquot do any
work on the Sabbath yoursel but pay someone else to do it You obeyed theletter o the law whorsquos countingrdquo8
Are these objections air Mathematician James Franklin suggests that
Pascalrsquos actual view is ofen replaced with an unflattering caricature o the
wager Franklin contrasts these two views
What Pascal said You have to choose whether to accept religion Tink o it
as a coin toss where you donrsquot know the outcome In this case i you losemdash
therersquos no Godmdashyou have not lost much But i you win there is an infinitepayoff So you should go to Mass and pray or aith [Franklinrsquos paraphrase]
Pascal caricatured Being base and greedy we want lots o goodies in this
lie and i possible the next So we are prepared to give up some pleasures
now on the off chance o a lot more later i our eye to the main chance makes
it look worth our while Since the loot on offer is infinite even a small chance
o raking it in makes it worth a try to grovel to any deity that might do what
we want9
Franklin makes a good point Pascalrsquos argument is ofen interpreted in
the worst possible light Still there are legitimate objections to consider
even when Pascalrsquos reasoning is interpreted airly It may be that it is im-
moral to allow any considerations about cost and benefit to affect what we
believe Perhaps a respect or truth requires that our belies be determined
by evidence and evidence alone Second we must consider whether the
costs o committing to God are simply too high And perhaps the most
common criticism is that Pascal illicitly assumed there were only two op-
tions to consider atheism and (Catholic) Christianity Te many gods ob-
jection as itrsquos ofen called contends that the multitude o possibly true reli-
gions makes trouble or Pascal
Copyrighted Material wwwivpresscompermissions
8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
httpslidepdfcomreaderfulltaking-pascals-wager-by-michael-rota 1924
A Curious Of fer 852018852021
In chapters three and our Irsquoll elaborate on these and additional objec-
tions and respond to them But first we need to lay the basic argument
out on the table in more detail and with greater precision In order togive the strongest argument possible Irsquoll set aside the analysis o Pascalrsquos
text and instead develop a Pascalian argument in my own way10 Just or
the sake o having a handy title Irsquoll reer to my argument as ldquothe wagerrdquo
or even ldquoPascalrsquos wagerrdquo but this title should be taken merely as a re-
erence to its original inspiration not as a claim that I am providing a
verbatim reproduction o Pascalrsquos thought Indeed the wager Irsquoll present
takes advantage o cutting-edge work in philosophy and psychology andrecent sociological data unavailable to Pascal and it is thereore able to
greatly improve on his rather sketchy note Since itrsquos impossible to explain
the wager clearly without using some concepts rom decision theory
thatrsquos where wersquoll begin
D983141983139983145983155983145983151983150 T983144983141983151983154983161
Decision theory is about how to make good decisions in circumstances orisk or uncertainty Tree concepts are especially important states strat-
egies and outcomes A state is a possible way things might be (it will rain
today or it wonrsquot rain today) a strategy is a possible action the decider
might take (bring my umbrella or leave it at home) An outcome is a situ-
ation that results when a given strategy is taken and a certain state is actual
(eg the situation o being stuck in the rain without an umbrella) In order
to assess the suitability o the various available strategies the decision
maker attempts to orm a judgment about how valuable the various out-
comes are
For example suppose I offer you a bet I ask a trusted third party to flip
a air coin but not to tell us whether it lands heads or tails Ten I ask you
to decide either to play (that is participate in the bet) or pass I you choose
to play it will cost you one dollar but i you play and the coin has come up
heads you will get your dollar back and I will pay you two more dollars so
you will be up two dollars I you choose to play and the coin comes up tails
however I will keep your dollar so you will be down one dollar I on the
other hand you choose to pass no money will change hands either way
Would you take my bet
Copyrighted Material wwwivpresscompermissions
8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
httpslidepdfcomreaderfulltaking-pascals-wager-by-michael-rota 2024
8520181048630 983137983147983145 983150983143 P983137983155983139983137 983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
I bet you would Decision theory allows us to say precisely why the bet is
avorable or you Tere are two possible states or you to consider it could
be that the coin has come up heads and it could be that it has come up tailsAt the time you make your decision you donrsquot know which state is the actual
way things are but you do know that itrsquos one or the other Next there are
two possible strategies you can adopt play or pass Corresponding to the
our possible combinations o these states and strategies there are our pos-
sible situations that may resultmdashthese are the outcomes (983089) you play the
game and the coin is heads and so you win two dollars (1048626) you play the
game and the coin is tails so you lose one dollar (1048627) you pass and the coinis heads so you neither gain nor lose and (1048628) you pass and the coin is tails
so you neither gain nor lose In considering the question o what to do the
decision maker is invited to evaluate the outcomes Tat is the decision
maker attempts to estimate how valuable the various outcomes are In this
case the monetary value o outcome 983089 or you is two dollars or outcome 1048626
it is minus one dollar and or outcomes 1048627 and 1048628 zero In the case o most
actual decisions values other than money are at stake But starting with an
example using money is a good way to get an initial grasp o decision theory
Decision theorists commonly use a ldquodecision matrixrdquo to sum up inor-
mation relevant to a decision In our case we need a two-by-two matrix Te
columns correspond to the two possible states o the world and the rows
correspond to the two strategies you might take In the cells we write down
the valuations o the resulting outcomes
Heads Tails
PlayOutcome 1
$2Outcome 2
$-1
PassOutcome 3
$0Outcome 4
$0
Figure 983089983089
Should you play or pass I you only had one dollar to your name and
needed it to buy ood lest you starve then it might not be wise to play But
i yoursquore in ordinary circumstances and the loss o a dollar would be no great
Copyrighted Material wwwivpresscompermissions
8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
httpslidepdfcomreaderfulltaking-pascals-wager-by-michael-rota 2124
A Curious Of fer 852018852023
loss then itrsquos rational to play Intuitively this is because yoursquove got an equal
chance o gaining and losing and i you gain you gain twice what you would
lose i you lost More precisely itrsquos because the expected value o playing ishigher than the expected value o passing Te expected value o a strategy
or a given game or bet is the average value per game that would accrue to
you i you played the game an infinite number o times and adopted that
strategy every time Here the expected value o the strategy ldquoplayrdquo can be
calculated by multiplying the probability o each state by the value o its
corresponding outcome and adding up the products So the expected value
o ldquoplayrdquo is equal to
(frac12) times (1048626) + (frac12) times (minus983089) = 1048629983088
I you were offered this bet a large number o times and you chose ldquoplayrdquo
every time yoursquod win an average o about fify cents per game Te expected
value o passing by contrast is
(frac12) times (983088) + (frac12) times (983088) = 983088
One reason playing is a good bet here is that the expected value o playing
(fify cents) is more than the expected value o passing (zero cents) Now as
it turns out itrsquos not always rational to take the strategy that maximizes onersquos
expected value11 But maximizing expected value is ofen a good way to
make decisions that involve risk
For the sake o clarity Irsquove illustrated the concepts o a state a strategy an
outcome and a decision matrix by giving an example with precise monetary
values or outcomes and with definite probabilities assigned to the possiblestates in question In real lie we usually donrsquot have precise probabilities to
assign to the states and much (perhaps most) o what we care about canrsquot
be valued in monetary terms Even in such cases however there are prin-
ciples that can guide our decision making
One such principle is at play when we say things like ldquoIrsquoll do X because it
canrsquot hurt and it might helprdquo or ldquoYou should do Y because therersquos nothing to
lose and maybe a lot to gainrdquo Suppose yoursquove borrowed your riendrsquos bicycleand have cycled to a store on the edge o town You put the lock around the
bike and a parking sign and as yoursquore lifing the key to lock up the bike it
occurs to you that this part o town is very sae and therersquos hardly any chance
Copyrighted Material wwwivpresscompermissions
8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
httpslidepdfcomreaderfulltaking-pascals-wager-by-michael-rota 2224
8520181048632 983137983147983145 983150983143 P983137983155983139983137 983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
the bike will be stolen Besides when yoursquore inside the bike will be in your
view through the store window As you finish thinking this yoursquove also just
put the key into the lock So should you lock up the bike You donrsquot have anyprecise knowledge about the probability o thef in the circumstances and
while you could estimate the value o the bike therersquos no obvious way to
calculate the disvalue your riend would experience i your negligence got his
bike stolen Despite your lack o knowledge on those points though itrsquos clear
enough what you should do all you have to do to lock the bike is turn your
wrist A decision theorist could map out your situation like this
A thief will happen by A thief wont happen by
Lock Nothing bad happens Nothing bad happens
Dontlock
Bike stolen (probably) Nothing bad happens
Figure 983089 983090
I a motivated capable thie is in act coming along the strategy o locking
will result in a ar better outcome while i such a thie wonrsquot happen by locking
is no worse than unlocking (by the time o your decision itrsquos just so easy to
lock that therersquos no cost to locking) In the language o game theory we say
that the strategy o locking ldquoweakly dominatesrdquo the strategy o not locking
One strategy weakly dominates another i (and only i) there is at least one
possible state o the world on which the first strategy delivers a better outcome
than the second and there are no possible states o the world on which the
first strategy delivers a worse outcome than second In other words depending
on how things turn out adopting a weakly dominant strategy will either end
up yielding a better result than adopting the other strategy would have or it
will end up yielding a result that is just as good as what yoursquod have gotten with
the other strategy In a situation o uncertainty when we donrsquot know which o
several possible states o the world is the true one it is always better to adopt
a weakly dominant strategy instead o the strategy it dominates
In case yoursquore wondering one strategy strongly dominates another
strategy i and only i it delivers a better outcome on every possible state o
Copyrighted Material wwwivpresscompermissions
8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
httpslidepdfcomreaderfulltaking-pascals-wager-by-michael-rota 2324
A Curious Of fer 8520181048633
the world O course strongly dominant strategies are even more preerable
than weakly dominant strategies when you can get them
Decision theorists have other principles to help guide us in uncertaintyBut itrsquos worth noting that in some cases we donrsquot need a general principle
Sometimes we can just see what the smart thing to do is especially i wersquove
laid out the inormation in a decision matrix For example suppose again
that a trusted third party flips a coin or us but doesnrsquot say whether it lands
heads or tails Now imagine that I credibly make you this offer i you choose
to play and itrsquos heads then Irsquoll give you a million dollars while yoursquoll owe
me one dollar i itrsquos tails and yoursquove chosen to play I you choose to pass nomoney is exchanged either way We could represent this with the matrix
Heads Tails
PlayOutcome 1
$1000000Outcome 2
$-1
PassOutcome 3
$0Outcome 4
$0
Figure 983089 983091
Here we canrsquot say that playing weakly dominates passing because i the
coin is tails you do slightly better by passing But itrsquos one dollar wersquore talking
about Strictly speaking playing is not a weakly dominant strategy here but
itrsquos close enough Te payoff is so much greater i the coin is heads and the
loss is so little i itrsquos tails that itrsquos clearly rational to play Perhaps we couldstate a precise universally valid principle that would apply in this case and
tell us what to do but we donrsquot really need one we can just see what the
smart move is Tis insight will prove helpul later on
With these preliminaries behind us we can now turn to the wager A
consideration o this argument will allow us to see that Christian com-
mitment is recommended by reason so long as the available evidence makes
it at least as likely as not that the central claims o Christianity are true
Copyrighted Material wwwivpresscompermissions
8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
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8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
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A Curious Of fer 852018852021
In chapters three and our Irsquoll elaborate on these and additional objec-
tions and respond to them But first we need to lay the basic argument
out on the table in more detail and with greater precision In order togive the strongest argument possible Irsquoll set aside the analysis o Pascalrsquos
text and instead develop a Pascalian argument in my own way10 Just or
the sake o having a handy title Irsquoll reer to my argument as ldquothe wagerrdquo
or even ldquoPascalrsquos wagerrdquo but this title should be taken merely as a re-
erence to its original inspiration not as a claim that I am providing a
verbatim reproduction o Pascalrsquos thought Indeed the wager Irsquoll present
takes advantage o cutting-edge work in philosophy and psychology andrecent sociological data unavailable to Pascal and it is thereore able to
greatly improve on his rather sketchy note Since itrsquos impossible to explain
the wager clearly without using some concepts rom decision theory
thatrsquos where wersquoll begin
D983141983139983145983155983145983151983150 T983144983141983151983154983161
Decision theory is about how to make good decisions in circumstances orisk or uncertainty Tree concepts are especially important states strat-
egies and outcomes A state is a possible way things might be (it will rain
today or it wonrsquot rain today) a strategy is a possible action the decider
might take (bring my umbrella or leave it at home) An outcome is a situ-
ation that results when a given strategy is taken and a certain state is actual
(eg the situation o being stuck in the rain without an umbrella) In order
to assess the suitability o the various available strategies the decision
maker attempts to orm a judgment about how valuable the various out-
comes are
For example suppose I offer you a bet I ask a trusted third party to flip
a air coin but not to tell us whether it lands heads or tails Ten I ask you
to decide either to play (that is participate in the bet) or pass I you choose
to play it will cost you one dollar but i you play and the coin has come up
heads you will get your dollar back and I will pay you two more dollars so
you will be up two dollars I you choose to play and the coin comes up tails
however I will keep your dollar so you will be down one dollar I on the
other hand you choose to pass no money will change hands either way
Would you take my bet
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8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
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I bet you would Decision theory allows us to say precisely why the bet is
avorable or you Tere are two possible states or you to consider it could
be that the coin has come up heads and it could be that it has come up tailsAt the time you make your decision you donrsquot know which state is the actual
way things are but you do know that itrsquos one or the other Next there are
two possible strategies you can adopt play or pass Corresponding to the
our possible combinations o these states and strategies there are our pos-
sible situations that may resultmdashthese are the outcomes (983089) you play the
game and the coin is heads and so you win two dollars (1048626) you play the
game and the coin is tails so you lose one dollar (1048627) you pass and the coinis heads so you neither gain nor lose and (1048628) you pass and the coin is tails
so you neither gain nor lose In considering the question o what to do the
decision maker is invited to evaluate the outcomes Tat is the decision
maker attempts to estimate how valuable the various outcomes are In this
case the monetary value o outcome 983089 or you is two dollars or outcome 1048626
it is minus one dollar and or outcomes 1048627 and 1048628 zero In the case o most
actual decisions values other than money are at stake But starting with an
example using money is a good way to get an initial grasp o decision theory
Decision theorists commonly use a ldquodecision matrixrdquo to sum up inor-
mation relevant to a decision In our case we need a two-by-two matrix Te
columns correspond to the two possible states o the world and the rows
correspond to the two strategies you might take In the cells we write down
the valuations o the resulting outcomes
Heads Tails
PlayOutcome 1
$2Outcome 2
$-1
PassOutcome 3
$0Outcome 4
$0
Figure 983089983089
Should you play or pass I you only had one dollar to your name and
needed it to buy ood lest you starve then it might not be wise to play But
i yoursquore in ordinary circumstances and the loss o a dollar would be no great
Copyrighted Material wwwivpresscompermissions
8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
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A Curious Of fer 852018852023
loss then itrsquos rational to play Intuitively this is because yoursquove got an equal
chance o gaining and losing and i you gain you gain twice what you would
lose i you lost More precisely itrsquos because the expected value o playing ishigher than the expected value o passing Te expected value o a strategy
or a given game or bet is the average value per game that would accrue to
you i you played the game an infinite number o times and adopted that
strategy every time Here the expected value o the strategy ldquoplayrdquo can be
calculated by multiplying the probability o each state by the value o its
corresponding outcome and adding up the products So the expected value
o ldquoplayrdquo is equal to
(frac12) times (1048626) + (frac12) times (minus983089) = 1048629983088
I you were offered this bet a large number o times and you chose ldquoplayrdquo
every time yoursquod win an average o about fify cents per game Te expected
value o passing by contrast is
(frac12) times (983088) + (frac12) times (983088) = 983088
One reason playing is a good bet here is that the expected value o playing
(fify cents) is more than the expected value o passing (zero cents) Now as
it turns out itrsquos not always rational to take the strategy that maximizes onersquos
expected value11 But maximizing expected value is ofen a good way to
make decisions that involve risk
For the sake o clarity Irsquove illustrated the concepts o a state a strategy an
outcome and a decision matrix by giving an example with precise monetary
values or outcomes and with definite probabilities assigned to the possiblestates in question In real lie we usually donrsquot have precise probabilities to
assign to the states and much (perhaps most) o what we care about canrsquot
be valued in monetary terms Even in such cases however there are prin-
ciples that can guide our decision making
One such principle is at play when we say things like ldquoIrsquoll do X because it
canrsquot hurt and it might helprdquo or ldquoYou should do Y because therersquos nothing to
lose and maybe a lot to gainrdquo Suppose yoursquove borrowed your riendrsquos bicycleand have cycled to a store on the edge o town You put the lock around the
bike and a parking sign and as yoursquore lifing the key to lock up the bike it
occurs to you that this part o town is very sae and therersquos hardly any chance
Copyrighted Material wwwivpresscompermissions
8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
httpslidepdfcomreaderfulltaking-pascals-wager-by-michael-rota 2224
8520181048632 983137983147983145 983150983143 P983137983155983139983137 983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
the bike will be stolen Besides when yoursquore inside the bike will be in your
view through the store window As you finish thinking this yoursquove also just
put the key into the lock So should you lock up the bike You donrsquot have anyprecise knowledge about the probability o thef in the circumstances and
while you could estimate the value o the bike therersquos no obvious way to
calculate the disvalue your riend would experience i your negligence got his
bike stolen Despite your lack o knowledge on those points though itrsquos clear
enough what you should do all you have to do to lock the bike is turn your
wrist A decision theorist could map out your situation like this
A thief will happen by A thief wont happen by
Lock Nothing bad happens Nothing bad happens
Dontlock
Bike stolen (probably) Nothing bad happens
Figure 983089 983090
I a motivated capable thie is in act coming along the strategy o locking
will result in a ar better outcome while i such a thie wonrsquot happen by locking
is no worse than unlocking (by the time o your decision itrsquos just so easy to
lock that therersquos no cost to locking) In the language o game theory we say
that the strategy o locking ldquoweakly dominatesrdquo the strategy o not locking
One strategy weakly dominates another i (and only i) there is at least one
possible state o the world on which the first strategy delivers a better outcome
than the second and there are no possible states o the world on which the
first strategy delivers a worse outcome than second In other words depending
on how things turn out adopting a weakly dominant strategy will either end
up yielding a better result than adopting the other strategy would have or it
will end up yielding a result that is just as good as what yoursquod have gotten with
the other strategy In a situation o uncertainty when we donrsquot know which o
several possible states o the world is the true one it is always better to adopt
a weakly dominant strategy instead o the strategy it dominates
In case yoursquore wondering one strategy strongly dominates another
strategy i and only i it delivers a better outcome on every possible state o
Copyrighted Material wwwivpresscompermissions
8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
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A Curious Of fer 8520181048633
the world O course strongly dominant strategies are even more preerable
than weakly dominant strategies when you can get them
Decision theorists have other principles to help guide us in uncertaintyBut itrsquos worth noting that in some cases we donrsquot need a general principle
Sometimes we can just see what the smart thing to do is especially i wersquove
laid out the inormation in a decision matrix For example suppose again
that a trusted third party flips a coin or us but doesnrsquot say whether it lands
heads or tails Now imagine that I credibly make you this offer i you choose
to play and itrsquos heads then Irsquoll give you a million dollars while yoursquoll owe
me one dollar i itrsquos tails and yoursquove chosen to play I you choose to pass nomoney is exchanged either way We could represent this with the matrix
Heads Tails
PlayOutcome 1
$1000000Outcome 2
$-1
PassOutcome 3
$0Outcome 4
$0
Figure 983089 983091
Here we canrsquot say that playing weakly dominates passing because i the
coin is tails you do slightly better by passing But itrsquos one dollar wersquore talking
about Strictly speaking playing is not a weakly dominant strategy here but
itrsquos close enough Te payoff is so much greater i the coin is heads and the
loss is so little i itrsquos tails that itrsquos clearly rational to play Perhaps we couldstate a precise universally valid principle that would apply in this case and
tell us what to do but we donrsquot really need one we can just see what the
smart move is Tis insight will prove helpul later on
With these preliminaries behind us we can now turn to the wager A
consideration o this argument will allow us to see that Christian com-
mitment is recommended by reason so long as the available evidence makes
it at least as likely as not that the central claims o Christianity are true
Copyrighted Material wwwivpresscompermissions
8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
httpslidepdfcomreaderfulltaking-pascals-wager-by-michael-rota 2424
8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
httpslidepdfcomreaderfulltaking-pascals-wager-by-michael-rota 2024
8520181048630 983137983147983145 983150983143 P983137983155983139983137 983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
I bet you would Decision theory allows us to say precisely why the bet is
avorable or you Tere are two possible states or you to consider it could
be that the coin has come up heads and it could be that it has come up tailsAt the time you make your decision you donrsquot know which state is the actual
way things are but you do know that itrsquos one or the other Next there are
two possible strategies you can adopt play or pass Corresponding to the
our possible combinations o these states and strategies there are our pos-
sible situations that may resultmdashthese are the outcomes (983089) you play the
game and the coin is heads and so you win two dollars (1048626) you play the
game and the coin is tails so you lose one dollar (1048627) you pass and the coinis heads so you neither gain nor lose and (1048628) you pass and the coin is tails
so you neither gain nor lose In considering the question o what to do the
decision maker is invited to evaluate the outcomes Tat is the decision
maker attempts to estimate how valuable the various outcomes are In this
case the monetary value o outcome 983089 or you is two dollars or outcome 1048626
it is minus one dollar and or outcomes 1048627 and 1048628 zero In the case o most
actual decisions values other than money are at stake But starting with an
example using money is a good way to get an initial grasp o decision theory
Decision theorists commonly use a ldquodecision matrixrdquo to sum up inor-
mation relevant to a decision In our case we need a two-by-two matrix Te
columns correspond to the two possible states o the world and the rows
correspond to the two strategies you might take In the cells we write down
the valuations o the resulting outcomes
Heads Tails
PlayOutcome 1
$2Outcome 2
$-1
PassOutcome 3
$0Outcome 4
$0
Figure 983089983089
Should you play or pass I you only had one dollar to your name and
needed it to buy ood lest you starve then it might not be wise to play But
i yoursquore in ordinary circumstances and the loss o a dollar would be no great
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8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
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A Curious Of fer 852018852023
loss then itrsquos rational to play Intuitively this is because yoursquove got an equal
chance o gaining and losing and i you gain you gain twice what you would
lose i you lost More precisely itrsquos because the expected value o playing ishigher than the expected value o passing Te expected value o a strategy
or a given game or bet is the average value per game that would accrue to
you i you played the game an infinite number o times and adopted that
strategy every time Here the expected value o the strategy ldquoplayrdquo can be
calculated by multiplying the probability o each state by the value o its
corresponding outcome and adding up the products So the expected value
o ldquoplayrdquo is equal to
(frac12) times (1048626) + (frac12) times (minus983089) = 1048629983088
I you were offered this bet a large number o times and you chose ldquoplayrdquo
every time yoursquod win an average o about fify cents per game Te expected
value o passing by contrast is
(frac12) times (983088) + (frac12) times (983088) = 983088
One reason playing is a good bet here is that the expected value o playing
(fify cents) is more than the expected value o passing (zero cents) Now as
it turns out itrsquos not always rational to take the strategy that maximizes onersquos
expected value11 But maximizing expected value is ofen a good way to
make decisions that involve risk
For the sake o clarity Irsquove illustrated the concepts o a state a strategy an
outcome and a decision matrix by giving an example with precise monetary
values or outcomes and with definite probabilities assigned to the possiblestates in question In real lie we usually donrsquot have precise probabilities to
assign to the states and much (perhaps most) o what we care about canrsquot
be valued in monetary terms Even in such cases however there are prin-
ciples that can guide our decision making
One such principle is at play when we say things like ldquoIrsquoll do X because it
canrsquot hurt and it might helprdquo or ldquoYou should do Y because therersquos nothing to
lose and maybe a lot to gainrdquo Suppose yoursquove borrowed your riendrsquos bicycleand have cycled to a store on the edge o town You put the lock around the
bike and a parking sign and as yoursquore lifing the key to lock up the bike it
occurs to you that this part o town is very sae and therersquos hardly any chance
Copyrighted Material wwwivpresscompermissions
8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
httpslidepdfcomreaderfulltaking-pascals-wager-by-michael-rota 2224
8520181048632 983137983147983145 983150983143 P983137983155983139983137 983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
the bike will be stolen Besides when yoursquore inside the bike will be in your
view through the store window As you finish thinking this yoursquove also just
put the key into the lock So should you lock up the bike You donrsquot have anyprecise knowledge about the probability o thef in the circumstances and
while you could estimate the value o the bike therersquos no obvious way to
calculate the disvalue your riend would experience i your negligence got his
bike stolen Despite your lack o knowledge on those points though itrsquos clear
enough what you should do all you have to do to lock the bike is turn your
wrist A decision theorist could map out your situation like this
A thief will happen by A thief wont happen by
Lock Nothing bad happens Nothing bad happens
Dontlock
Bike stolen (probably) Nothing bad happens
Figure 983089 983090
I a motivated capable thie is in act coming along the strategy o locking
will result in a ar better outcome while i such a thie wonrsquot happen by locking
is no worse than unlocking (by the time o your decision itrsquos just so easy to
lock that therersquos no cost to locking) In the language o game theory we say
that the strategy o locking ldquoweakly dominatesrdquo the strategy o not locking
One strategy weakly dominates another i (and only i) there is at least one
possible state o the world on which the first strategy delivers a better outcome
than the second and there are no possible states o the world on which the
first strategy delivers a worse outcome than second In other words depending
on how things turn out adopting a weakly dominant strategy will either end
up yielding a better result than adopting the other strategy would have or it
will end up yielding a result that is just as good as what yoursquod have gotten with
the other strategy In a situation o uncertainty when we donrsquot know which o
several possible states o the world is the true one it is always better to adopt
a weakly dominant strategy instead o the strategy it dominates
In case yoursquore wondering one strategy strongly dominates another
strategy i and only i it delivers a better outcome on every possible state o
Copyrighted Material wwwivpresscompermissions
8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
httpslidepdfcomreaderfulltaking-pascals-wager-by-michael-rota 2324
A Curious Of fer 8520181048633
the world O course strongly dominant strategies are even more preerable
than weakly dominant strategies when you can get them
Decision theorists have other principles to help guide us in uncertaintyBut itrsquos worth noting that in some cases we donrsquot need a general principle
Sometimes we can just see what the smart thing to do is especially i wersquove
laid out the inormation in a decision matrix For example suppose again
that a trusted third party flips a coin or us but doesnrsquot say whether it lands
heads or tails Now imagine that I credibly make you this offer i you choose
to play and itrsquos heads then Irsquoll give you a million dollars while yoursquoll owe
me one dollar i itrsquos tails and yoursquove chosen to play I you choose to pass nomoney is exchanged either way We could represent this with the matrix
Heads Tails
PlayOutcome 1
$1000000Outcome 2
$-1
PassOutcome 3
$0Outcome 4
$0
Figure 983089 983091
Here we canrsquot say that playing weakly dominates passing because i the
coin is tails you do slightly better by passing But itrsquos one dollar wersquore talking
about Strictly speaking playing is not a weakly dominant strategy here but
itrsquos close enough Te payoff is so much greater i the coin is heads and the
loss is so little i itrsquos tails that itrsquos clearly rational to play Perhaps we couldstate a precise universally valid principle that would apply in this case and
tell us what to do but we donrsquot really need one we can just see what the
smart move is Tis insight will prove helpul later on
With these preliminaries behind us we can now turn to the wager A
consideration o this argument will allow us to see that Christian com-
mitment is recommended by reason so long as the available evidence makes
it at least as likely as not that the central claims o Christianity are true
Copyrighted Material wwwivpresscompermissions
8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
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8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
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A Curious Of fer 852018852023
loss then itrsquos rational to play Intuitively this is because yoursquove got an equal
chance o gaining and losing and i you gain you gain twice what you would
lose i you lost More precisely itrsquos because the expected value o playing ishigher than the expected value o passing Te expected value o a strategy
or a given game or bet is the average value per game that would accrue to
you i you played the game an infinite number o times and adopted that
strategy every time Here the expected value o the strategy ldquoplayrdquo can be
calculated by multiplying the probability o each state by the value o its
corresponding outcome and adding up the products So the expected value
o ldquoplayrdquo is equal to
(frac12) times (1048626) + (frac12) times (minus983089) = 1048629983088
I you were offered this bet a large number o times and you chose ldquoplayrdquo
every time yoursquod win an average o about fify cents per game Te expected
value o passing by contrast is
(frac12) times (983088) + (frac12) times (983088) = 983088
One reason playing is a good bet here is that the expected value o playing
(fify cents) is more than the expected value o passing (zero cents) Now as
it turns out itrsquos not always rational to take the strategy that maximizes onersquos
expected value11 But maximizing expected value is ofen a good way to
make decisions that involve risk
For the sake o clarity Irsquove illustrated the concepts o a state a strategy an
outcome and a decision matrix by giving an example with precise monetary
values or outcomes and with definite probabilities assigned to the possiblestates in question In real lie we usually donrsquot have precise probabilities to
assign to the states and much (perhaps most) o what we care about canrsquot
be valued in monetary terms Even in such cases however there are prin-
ciples that can guide our decision making
One such principle is at play when we say things like ldquoIrsquoll do X because it
canrsquot hurt and it might helprdquo or ldquoYou should do Y because therersquos nothing to
lose and maybe a lot to gainrdquo Suppose yoursquove borrowed your riendrsquos bicycleand have cycled to a store on the edge o town You put the lock around the
bike and a parking sign and as yoursquore lifing the key to lock up the bike it
occurs to you that this part o town is very sae and therersquos hardly any chance
Copyrighted Material wwwivpresscompermissions
8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
httpslidepdfcomreaderfulltaking-pascals-wager-by-michael-rota 2224
8520181048632 983137983147983145 983150983143 P983137983155983139983137 983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
the bike will be stolen Besides when yoursquore inside the bike will be in your
view through the store window As you finish thinking this yoursquove also just
put the key into the lock So should you lock up the bike You donrsquot have anyprecise knowledge about the probability o thef in the circumstances and
while you could estimate the value o the bike therersquos no obvious way to
calculate the disvalue your riend would experience i your negligence got his
bike stolen Despite your lack o knowledge on those points though itrsquos clear
enough what you should do all you have to do to lock the bike is turn your
wrist A decision theorist could map out your situation like this
A thief will happen by A thief wont happen by
Lock Nothing bad happens Nothing bad happens
Dontlock
Bike stolen (probably) Nothing bad happens
Figure 983089 983090
I a motivated capable thie is in act coming along the strategy o locking
will result in a ar better outcome while i such a thie wonrsquot happen by locking
is no worse than unlocking (by the time o your decision itrsquos just so easy to
lock that therersquos no cost to locking) In the language o game theory we say
that the strategy o locking ldquoweakly dominatesrdquo the strategy o not locking
One strategy weakly dominates another i (and only i) there is at least one
possible state o the world on which the first strategy delivers a better outcome
than the second and there are no possible states o the world on which the
first strategy delivers a worse outcome than second In other words depending
on how things turn out adopting a weakly dominant strategy will either end
up yielding a better result than adopting the other strategy would have or it
will end up yielding a result that is just as good as what yoursquod have gotten with
the other strategy In a situation o uncertainty when we donrsquot know which o
several possible states o the world is the true one it is always better to adopt
a weakly dominant strategy instead o the strategy it dominates
In case yoursquore wondering one strategy strongly dominates another
strategy i and only i it delivers a better outcome on every possible state o
Copyrighted Material wwwivpresscompermissions
8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
httpslidepdfcomreaderfulltaking-pascals-wager-by-michael-rota 2324
A Curious Of fer 8520181048633
the world O course strongly dominant strategies are even more preerable
than weakly dominant strategies when you can get them
Decision theorists have other principles to help guide us in uncertaintyBut itrsquos worth noting that in some cases we donrsquot need a general principle
Sometimes we can just see what the smart thing to do is especially i wersquove
laid out the inormation in a decision matrix For example suppose again
that a trusted third party flips a coin or us but doesnrsquot say whether it lands
heads or tails Now imagine that I credibly make you this offer i you choose
to play and itrsquos heads then Irsquoll give you a million dollars while yoursquoll owe
me one dollar i itrsquos tails and yoursquove chosen to play I you choose to pass nomoney is exchanged either way We could represent this with the matrix
Heads Tails
PlayOutcome 1
$1000000Outcome 2
$-1
PassOutcome 3
$0Outcome 4
$0
Figure 983089 983091
Here we canrsquot say that playing weakly dominates passing because i the
coin is tails you do slightly better by passing But itrsquos one dollar wersquore talking
about Strictly speaking playing is not a weakly dominant strategy here but
itrsquos close enough Te payoff is so much greater i the coin is heads and the
loss is so little i itrsquos tails that itrsquos clearly rational to play Perhaps we couldstate a precise universally valid principle that would apply in this case and
tell us what to do but we donrsquot really need one we can just see what the
smart move is Tis insight will prove helpul later on
With these preliminaries behind us we can now turn to the wager A
consideration o this argument will allow us to see that Christian com-
mitment is recommended by reason so long as the available evidence makes
it at least as likely as not that the central claims o Christianity are true
Copyrighted Material wwwivpresscompermissions
8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
httpslidepdfcomreaderfulltaking-pascals-wager-by-michael-rota 2424
8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
httpslidepdfcomreaderfulltaking-pascals-wager-by-michael-rota 2224
8520181048632 983137983147983145 983150983143 P983137983155983139983137 983148rsquo983155 W983137983143983141983154
the bike will be stolen Besides when yoursquore inside the bike will be in your
view through the store window As you finish thinking this yoursquove also just
put the key into the lock So should you lock up the bike You donrsquot have anyprecise knowledge about the probability o thef in the circumstances and
while you could estimate the value o the bike therersquos no obvious way to
calculate the disvalue your riend would experience i your negligence got his
bike stolen Despite your lack o knowledge on those points though itrsquos clear
enough what you should do all you have to do to lock the bike is turn your
wrist A decision theorist could map out your situation like this
A thief will happen by A thief wont happen by
Lock Nothing bad happens Nothing bad happens
Dontlock
Bike stolen (probably) Nothing bad happens
Figure 983089 983090
I a motivated capable thie is in act coming along the strategy o locking
will result in a ar better outcome while i such a thie wonrsquot happen by locking
is no worse than unlocking (by the time o your decision itrsquos just so easy to
lock that therersquos no cost to locking) In the language o game theory we say
that the strategy o locking ldquoweakly dominatesrdquo the strategy o not locking
One strategy weakly dominates another i (and only i) there is at least one
possible state o the world on which the first strategy delivers a better outcome
than the second and there are no possible states o the world on which the
first strategy delivers a worse outcome than second In other words depending
on how things turn out adopting a weakly dominant strategy will either end
up yielding a better result than adopting the other strategy would have or it
will end up yielding a result that is just as good as what yoursquod have gotten with
the other strategy In a situation o uncertainty when we donrsquot know which o
several possible states o the world is the true one it is always better to adopt
a weakly dominant strategy instead o the strategy it dominates
In case yoursquore wondering one strategy strongly dominates another
strategy i and only i it delivers a better outcome on every possible state o
Copyrighted Material wwwivpresscompermissions
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A Curious Of fer 8520181048633
the world O course strongly dominant strategies are even more preerable
than weakly dominant strategies when you can get them
Decision theorists have other principles to help guide us in uncertaintyBut itrsquos worth noting that in some cases we donrsquot need a general principle
Sometimes we can just see what the smart thing to do is especially i wersquove
laid out the inormation in a decision matrix For example suppose again
that a trusted third party flips a coin or us but doesnrsquot say whether it lands
heads or tails Now imagine that I credibly make you this offer i you choose
to play and itrsquos heads then Irsquoll give you a million dollars while yoursquoll owe
me one dollar i itrsquos tails and yoursquove chosen to play I you choose to pass nomoney is exchanged either way We could represent this with the matrix
Heads Tails
PlayOutcome 1
$1000000Outcome 2
$-1
PassOutcome 3
$0Outcome 4
$0
Figure 983089 983091
Here we canrsquot say that playing weakly dominates passing because i the
coin is tails you do slightly better by passing But itrsquos one dollar wersquore talking
about Strictly speaking playing is not a weakly dominant strategy here but
itrsquos close enough Te payoff is so much greater i the coin is heads and the
loss is so little i itrsquos tails that itrsquos clearly rational to play Perhaps we couldstate a precise universally valid principle that would apply in this case and
tell us what to do but we donrsquot really need one we can just see what the
smart move is Tis insight will prove helpul later on
With these preliminaries behind us we can now turn to the wager A
consideration o this argument will allow us to see that Christian com-
mitment is recommended by reason so long as the available evidence makes
it at least as likely as not that the central claims o Christianity are true
Copyrighted Material wwwivpresscompermissions
8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
httpslidepdfcomreaderfulltaking-pascals-wager-by-michael-rota 2424
8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
httpslidepdfcomreaderfulltaking-pascals-wager-by-michael-rota 2324
A Curious Of fer 8520181048633
the world O course strongly dominant strategies are even more preerable
than weakly dominant strategies when you can get them
Decision theorists have other principles to help guide us in uncertaintyBut itrsquos worth noting that in some cases we donrsquot need a general principle
Sometimes we can just see what the smart thing to do is especially i wersquove
laid out the inormation in a decision matrix For example suppose again
that a trusted third party flips a coin or us but doesnrsquot say whether it lands
heads or tails Now imagine that I credibly make you this offer i you choose
to play and itrsquos heads then Irsquoll give you a million dollars while yoursquoll owe
me one dollar i itrsquos tails and yoursquove chosen to play I you choose to pass nomoney is exchanged either way We could represent this with the matrix
Heads Tails
PlayOutcome 1
$1000000Outcome 2
$-1
PassOutcome 3
$0Outcome 4
$0
Figure 983089 983091
Here we canrsquot say that playing weakly dominates passing because i the
coin is tails you do slightly better by passing But itrsquos one dollar wersquore talking
about Strictly speaking playing is not a weakly dominant strategy here but
itrsquos close enough Te payoff is so much greater i the coin is heads and the
loss is so little i itrsquos tails that itrsquos clearly rational to play Perhaps we couldstate a precise universally valid principle that would apply in this case and
tell us what to do but we donrsquot really need one we can just see what the
smart move is Tis insight will prove helpul later on
With these preliminaries behind us we can now turn to the wager A
consideration o this argument will allow us to see that Christian com-
mitment is recommended by reason so long as the available evidence makes
it at least as likely as not that the central claims o Christianity are true
Copyrighted Material wwwivpresscompermissions
8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
httpslidepdfcomreaderfulltaking-pascals-wager-by-michael-rota 2424
8182019 Taking Pascals Wager By Michael Rota
httpslidepdfcomreaderfulltaking-pascals-wager-by-michael-rota 2424