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DNE21 Results for Phases 1 & 2. DNE21 Results for Phases 1 & 2. Expert Meeting on the Assessment of Contributions to Climate Change UK Met Office, UK September 25 - 27, 2002. Expert Meeting on the Assessment of Contributions to Climate Change. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Expert Meeting on the Assessment ofExpert Meeting on the Assessment ofContributions to Climate ChangeContributions to Climate Change
Takanobu KOSUGI, Toshimasa TOMODA, Keigo AKIMOTOResearch Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE)
Expert Meeting on the Assessment ofExpert Meeting on the Assessment ofContributions to Climate ChangeContributions to Climate Change
UK Met Office, UKSeptember 25 - 27, 2002
DNE21Results for Phases 1 & 2
DNE21Results for Phases 1 & 2
Interrelations in DNE21ModelInterrelations in DNE21Model
E nergy S ystem sM odel
M acro-E cono m icM odel
C lim ate C hangeM odel
C O E m iss ionsS O x E m iss ions
2
F in a l E n e rg yD e m a n d s E nergy S ystem s
C osts
#Population#R ef. G D P#R ef. F inal Energy
e tc .
#Energy R esources#Supply C osts
e tc .
#O ther G H G s Em issionse tc .
Outline of the Climate Change ModelOutline of the Climate Change Model
Simple climate change model was constructed based on MAGICC (Model for the Assessment of Greenhouse gas Induced Climate Change).
Carbon circulation (both oceanic and terrestrial), atmospheric concentrations of other GHGs, their radiative forcings, temperature rises of 4 representative points (north and south hemispheres, ocean and land), sea level changes of north and south hemispheres (energy balance of upwelling stream among one dimensional 40 layers) etc. are calculated.
Cooling effect of SOx aerosol is taken into account.
Calculating Steps in Climate Change ModelCalculating Steps in Climate Change Model
CO Em issio n2
SO x Em ission
M ethaneEm ission
N O Em issio n2
Halocarbo ns(27 types)Em issions
Atm osph eric Co ncentration
CO 2
O c ean s LandSurface
RadiativeFo rcing of CO 2
M e th a n eC o n c e n tra t io n
N OCo ncentration
2
Halocarbo ns (27 types)
Co ncentration
R a d ia tiv e F o rc in go f M e th a n e
RadiativeFo rcing of N O2
Radiative Forcin gof H alocarb ons
(20 types)
RadiativeFo rcing of SO x
RadiativeFo rcing of H O2
RadiativeFo rcing of O zon e
G lob al M eanTem peratu re
Rise
Sea LevelCh an ge
Total R ad ia tiveF orcin g
Phase 1 StudyPhase 1 Study
• Assumptions / Conditions– Historical emissions data: CDIAC database
– Future emissions scenario: A2 of the IPCC SRES
– Timeframe: 1765 to 2100– Model parameters:
Reference case as specified in “TERMS
OF REFERENCE”
Cumulative CO2 emissions
Results for Phase 1Results for Phase 1CO2 concentration CH4 and N2O concentrations
Radiative forcing (relative to 1990) Global-average surface air temperature change
Phase 2 StudyPhase 2 Study
• Assumptions / Conditions:– Historical emissions data: CDIAC database
– Future emissions scenarios: A2, B1 and A1FI, of the IPCC SRES (For CO2 emissions only. Non-CO2 GHGs emissions are assumed to be zero.)
– Emissions start year: 1991
– Emissions end years: 2010, 2050 and 2100
– Countries/regions: OECD90, REF, ASIA and ALM used in the IPCC SRES.
– Model parameters: Reference case only (same as Phase 1)
Methodology of Attribution CalculationMethodology of Attribution Calculation
1. Calculate emission effect V(t) (e.g., temperature change) of year t assuming that all the regions emit anthropogenic CO2 according to Scenarios.
2. Calculate emission effect VR (t) assuming that one of the regions R does not emit anthropogenic CO2 during the period between the emissions start year and an emissions end year.
3. Contribution of the region R’s emissions for the period is the difference: V(t) – VR (t).
Phase 2:
• Minimization of non-linearity error• Avoidance of non-anthropogenic emission effect
NOTE
COCO22 Emissions Accumulated in Atmosphere Emissions Accumulated in Atmosphere
• A2 ScenarioA2 Scenario
Attribution (%) in 2100OECD90 REF ASIA ALM
Emissions end year
2010 45 14 26 152050 35 11 33 212100 28 10 36 26
Phase 2 results:
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Year
Att
ribut
ion
of C
O2 e
mis
sion
s
accu
mul
ated
in t
he a
tmos
pher
e (G
tC)
OECD90REFASIAALM
(1) Emissions end year: 2010
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Year
Att
rib
utio
n o
f C
O2 e
mis
sio
ns
acc
um
ula
ted
in t
he
atm
osp
he
re (
GtC
) OECD90REFASIAALM
(2) Emissions end year: 2050
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Year
Att
rib
utio
n o
f C
O2 e
mis
sio
ns
acc
um
ula
ted
in t
he
atm
osp
he
re (
GtC
) OECD90REFASIAALM
(3) Emissions end year: 2100
COCO22 Concentration Concentration
• A2 ScenarioA2 Scenario
Phase 2 results:
Attribution (%) in 2100OECD90 REF ASIA ALM
Emissions end year
2010 45 14 26 152050 35 11 33 212100 28 9 36 27
0
5
10
15
20
25
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Year
Att
rib
utio
n o
f C
O2 c
on
cen
tra
tion
(pp
mv)
OECD90REFASIAALM
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Year
Att
rib
utio
n o
f C
O2
con
cen
tra
tion
(pp
mv)
OECD90REFASIAALM
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Year
Att
rib
utio
n o
f C
O2
con
cen
tra
tion
(pp
mv)
OECD90REFASIAALM
(1) Emissions end year: 2010
(3) Emissions end year: 2100(2) Emissions end year: 2050
Radiative Forcing of CORadiative Forcing of CO22
• A2 ScenarioA2 Scenario
Phase 2 results:
Attribution (%) in 2100OECD90 REF ASIA ALM
Emissions end year
2010 45 14 26 152050 35 11 33 212100 27 9 37 27
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Year
Att
rib
utio
n o
f ra
dia
tive
fo
rcin
g o
f C
O2
(W/m
2)
OECD90REFASIAALM
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Year
Att
rib
utio
n o
f ra
dia
tive
fo
rcin
g o
f C
O2
(W/m
2)
OECD90REFASIAALM
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Year
Att
rib
utio
n o
f ra
dia
tive
fo
rcin
g o
f C
O2
(W/m
2)
OECD90REFASIAALM
(1) Emissions end year: 2010
(3) Emissions end year: 2100(2) Emissions end year: 2050
Global-Average Temperature ChangeGlobal-Average Temperature Change
• A2 ScenarioA2 Scenario
Phase 2 results:
Attribution (%) in 2100OECD90 REF ASIA ALM
Emissions end year
2010 45 14 26 152050 35 11 33 212100 27 9 37 27
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.20
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Year
Att
rib
utio
n o
f g
lob
al-
ave
rag
e
tem
pe
ratu
re c
ha
ng
e (
o C)
OECD90REFASIAALM
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Year
Att
rib
utio
n o
f g
lob
al-
ave
rag
e
tem
pe
ratu
re c
ha
ng
e (
o C)
OECD90REFASIAALM
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Year
Att
rib
utio
n o
f g
lob
al-
ave
rag
e
tem
pe
ratu
re c
ha
ng
e (
o C)
OECD90REFASIAALM
(1) Emissions end year: 2010
(3) Emissions end year: 2100(2) Emissions end year: 2050
Global-Average Sea Level RiseGlobal-Average Sea Level Rise
• A2 ScenarioA2 Scenario
Phase 2 results:
Attribution (%) in 2100OECD90 REF ASIA ALM
Emissions end year
2010 45 14 26 152050 35 11 33 212100 30 9 36 25
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Year
Att
rib
utio
n o
f g
lob
al-
ave
rag
e s
ea
leve
l ris
e (
cm)
OECD90REFASIAALM
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Year
Att
rib
utio
n o
f g
lob
al-
ave
rag
e s
ea
leve
l ris
e (
cm)
OECD90REFASIAALM
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Year
Att
rib
utio
n o
f g
lob
al-
ave
rag
e s
ea
leve
l ris
e (
cm)
OECD90REFASIAALM
(1) Emissions end year: 2010
(3) Emissions end year: 2100(2) Emissions end year: 2050
COCO22 Emissions Accumulated in Atmosphere Emissions Accumulated in Atmosphere
• B1 ScenarioB1 Scenario
Attribution (%) in 2100OECD90 REF ASIA ALM
Emissions end year
2010 44 14 26 162050 30 9 31 302100 24 9 30 37
Phase 2 results:
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Year
Att
ribut
ion
of C
O2 e
mis
sion
s
accu
mul
ated
in t
he a
tmos
pher
e (G
tC)
OECD90REFASIAALM
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Year
Att
rib
utio
n o
f C
O2 e
mis
sio
ns
acc
um
ula
ted
in t
he
atm
osp
he
re (
GtC
) OECD90REFASIAALM
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Year
Att
rib
utio
n o
f C
O2 e
mis
sio
ns
acc
um
ula
ted
in t
he
atm
osp
he
re (
GtC
) OECD90REFASIAALM
(2) Emissions end year: 2050 (3) Emissions end year: 2100
(1) Emissions end year: 2010
COCO22 Concentration Concentration
• B1 ScenarioB1 Scenario
Phase 2 results:
Attribution (%) in 2100OECD90 REF ASIA ALM
Emissions end year
2010 44 14 26 162050 29 9 31 312100 23 8 30 39
0
5
10
15
20
25
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Year
Att
rib
utio
n o
f C
O2 c
on
cen
tra
tion
(pp
mv)
OECD90REFASIAALM
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Year
Att
rib
utio
n o
f C
O2
con
cen
tra
tion
(pp
mv)
OECD90REFASIAALM
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Year
Att
rib
utio
n o
f C
O2
con
cen
tra
tion
(pp
mv)
OECD90REFASIAALM
(1) Emissions end year: 2010
(3) Emissions end year: 2100(2) Emissions end year: 2050
Radiative Forcing of CORadiative Forcing of CO22
• B1 ScenarioB1 Scenario
Phase 2 results:
Attribution (%) in 2100OECD90 REF ASIA ALM
Emissions end year
2010 44 13 26 172050 29 9 31 312100 23 8 29 40
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Year
Att
rib
utio
n o
f ra
dia
tive
fo
rcin
g o
f C
O2
(W/m
2)
OECD90REFASIAALM
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Year
Att
rib
utio
n o
f ra
dia
tive
fo
rcin
g o
f C
O2
(W/m
2)
OECD90REFASIAALM
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Year
Att
rib
utio
n o
f ra
dia
tive
fo
rcin
g o
f C
O2
(W/m
2)
OECD90REFASIAALM
(1) Emissions end year: 2010
(3) Emissions end year: 2100(2) Emissions end year: 2050
Global-Average Temperature ChangeGlobal-Average Temperature Change
• B1 ScenarioB1 Scenario
Phase 2 results:
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.20
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Year
Att
rib
utio
n o
f g
lob
al-
ave
rag
e
tem
pe
ratu
re c
ha
ng
e (
o C)
OECD90REFASIAALM
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Year
Att
rib
utio
n o
f g
lob
al-
ave
rag
e
tem
pe
ratu
re c
ha
ng
e (
o C)
OECD90REFASIAALM
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Year
Att
rib
utio
n o
f g
lob
al-
ave
rag
e
tem
pe
ratu
re c
ha
ng
e (
o C)
OECD90REFASIAALM
(1) Emissions end year: 2010
(3) Emissions end year: 2100(2) Emissions end year: 2050
Attribution (%) in 2100OECD90 REF ASIA ALM
Emissions end year
2010 44 14 26 162050 29 9 31 312100 23 8 30 39
Global-Average Sea Level RiseGlobal-Average Sea Level Rise
• B1 ScenarioB1 Scenario
Phase 2 results:
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Year
Att
rib
utio
n o
f g
lob
al-
ave
rag
e s
ea
leve
l ris
e (
cm)
OECD90REFASIAALM
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Year
Att
rib
utio
n o
f g
lob
al-
ave
rag
e s
ea
leve
l ris
e (
cm)
OECD90REFASIAALM
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Year
Att
rib
utio
n o
f g
lob
al-
ave
rag
e s
ea
leve
l ris
e (
cm)
OECD90REFASIAALM
(1) Emissions end year: 2010
(3) Emissions end year: 2100(2) Emissions end year: 2050
Attribution (%) in 2100OECD90 REF ASIA ALM
Emissions end year
2010 44 14 26 162050 30 9 31 302100 25 9 30 36
COCO22 Emissions Accumulated in Atmosphere Emissions Accumulated in Atmosphere
• A1FI ScenarioA1FI Scenario
Attribution (%) in 2100OECD90 REF ASIA ALM
Emissions end year
2010 44 14 26 162050 30 9 31 302100 24 9 30 37
Phase 2 results:
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Year
Att
ribut
ion
of C
O2 e
mis
sion
s
accu
mul
ated
in t
he a
tmos
pher
e (G
tC)
OECD90REFASIAALM
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Year
Att
rib
utio
n o
f C
O2 e
mis
sio
ns
acc
um
ula
ted
in t
he
atm
osp
he
re (
GtC
) OECD90REFASIAALM
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Year
Att
rib
utio
n o
f C
O2 e
mis
sio
ns
acc
um
ula
ted
in t
he
atm
osp
he
re (
GtC
) OECD90REFASIAALM
(2) Emissions end year: 2050 (3) Emissions end year: 2100
(1) Emissions end year: 2010
COCO22 Concentration Concentration
• A1FI ScenarioA1FI Scenario
Phase 2 results:
Attribution (%) in 2100OECD90 REF ASIA ALM
Emissions end year
2010 45 14 27 142050 30 12 39 192100 25 10 38 27
0
5
10
15
20
25
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Year
Att
rib
utio
n o
f C
O2 c
on
cen
tra
tion
(pp
mv)
OECD90REFASIAALM
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Year
Att
rib
utio
n o
f C
O2
con
cen
tra
tion
(pp
mv)
OECD90REFASIAALM
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Year
Att
rib
utio
n o
f C
O2
con
cen
tra
tion
(pp
mv)
OECD90REFASIAALM
(1) Emissions end year: 2010
(3) Emissions end year: 2100(2) Emissions end year: 2050
Radiative Forcing of CORadiative Forcing of CO22
• A1FI ScenarioA1FI Scenario
Phase 2 results:
Attribution (%) in 2100OECD90 REF ASIA ALM
Emissions end year
2010 45 14 27 142050 30 12 39 192100 24 10 39 27
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Year
Att
rib
utio
n o
f ra
dia
tive
fo
rcin
g o
f C
O2
(W/m
2)
OECD90REFASIAALM
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Year
Att
rib
utio
n o
f ra
dia
tive
fo
rcin
g o
f C
O2
(W/m
2)
OECD90REFASIAALM
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Year
Att
rib
utio
n o
f ra
dia
tive
fo
rcin
g o
f C
O2
(W/m
2)
OECD90REFASIAALM
(1) Emissions end year: 2010
(3) Emissions end year: 2100(2) Emissions end year: 2050
Global-Average Temperature ChangeGlobal-Average Temperature Change
• A1FI ScenarioA1FI Scenario
Phase 2 results:
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.20
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Year
Att
rib
utio
n o
f g
lob
al-
ave
rag
e
tem
pe
ratu
re c
ha
ng
e (
o C)
OECD90REFASIAALM
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Year
Att
rib
utio
n o
f g
lob
al-
ave
rag
e
tem
pe
ratu
re c
ha
ng
e (
o C)
OECD90REFASIAALM
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Year
Att
rib
utio
n o
f g
lob
al-
ave
rag
e
tem
pe
ratu
re c
ha
ng
e (
o C)
OECD90REFASIAALM
(1) Emissions end year: 2010
(3) Emissions end year: 2100(2) Emissions end year: 2050
Attribution (%) in 2100OECD90 REF ASIA ALM
Emissions end year
2010 45 14 27 142050 30 12 39 192100 25 10 38 27
Global-Average Sea Level RiseGlobal-Average Sea Level Rise
• A1FI ScenarioA1FI Scenario
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Year
Att
rib
utio
n o
f g
lob
al-
ave
rag
e s
ea
leve
l ris
e (
cm)
OECD90REFASIAALM
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Year
Att
rib
utio
n o
f g
lob
al-
ave
rag
e s
ea
leve
l ris
e (
cm)
OECD90REFASIAALM
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100Year
Att
rib
utio
n o
f g
lob
al-
ave
rag
e s
ea
leve
l ris
e (
cm)
OECD90REFASIAALM
Phase 2 results:
(1) Emissions end year: 2010
(3) Emissions end year: 2100(2) Emissions end year: 2050
Attribution (%) in 2100OECD90 REF ASIA ALM
Emissions end year
2010 45 14 27 142050 31 12 39 182100 26 10 39 25
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