TACTRAN Park & Ride Strategy...Demand forecasting and option appraisal report 2.3 Costs by Park & Ride 2.3.1 Many of the costs of making a journey by Park & Ride will be a function

TACTRAN Park & Ride Strategy Demand forecasting and option appraisal report

TACTRAN

May 2008


Project No: 141821 May 2008 4 St. Colme Street, Edinburgh EH3 6AA Telephone: 0131 226 4693 Fax: 0131 220 0232 Email : [email protected] Prepared by: Approved by:

____________________________________________ ____________________________________________Louisa Martin Grant Davidson Status: Draft Issue no: 1 Date: 16 May 2008

j:\141821 tactran park and ride strategy\word\reports\demand forecasting report\final\demand forecasting report final 1606.doc

(C) Copyright Colin Buchanan and Partners Limited. All rights reserved. This report has been prepared for the exclusive use of the commissioning party and unless otherwise agreed in writing by Colin Buchanan and Partners Limited, no other party may copy, reproduce, distribute, make use of, or rely on the contents of the report. No liability is accepted by Colin Buchanan and Partners Limited for any use of this report, other than for the purposes for which it was originally prepared and provided. Opinions and information provided in this report are on the basis of Colin Buchanan and Partners Limited using due skill, care and diligence in the preparation of the same and no explicit warranty is provided as to their accuracy. It should be noted and is expressly stated that no independent verification of any of the documents or information supplied to Colin Buchanan and Partners Limited has een made b


Contents Page 1. Introduction 1 1.1 Introduction 1 1.2 Structure of this document 1 2. Forecasting methodology 3 2.1 PRIDE 3 2.2 Trip demand and costs 4 2.3 Costs by Park & Ride 5 2.4 Mode choice parameters 5 2.5 Forecast patronage 5 3. Option generation 7 3.1 Option generation 7 3.2 Long list of potential Park & Ride sites 7 3.3 Service provision 13 4. Forecast demand 17 4.1 Introduction 17 4.2 PRIDE parameters 17 4.3 Parking charges 17 4.4 Bus fares 18 4.5 Strategic Park & ride sites 18 4.6 Forecast demand – sites assessed independently 19 4.7 Competing Park & Ride sides / incremental delivery 19 5. STAG type objectives appraisal 23 5.1 STAG type objectives appraisal 23 6. Option sifting 25 6.1 Introduction 25 6.2 Strategic sites 25 6.3 Local sites 25 6.4 Summary 27 6.5 Parking charges increased by RPI +4% per annum 28 6.6 Impact of expanded Dundee CPZ 29 6.7 Impact of reduced bus journey times from site D3 30 7. Recommendations 31 7.1 Sites to be taken forward 31 7.2 Sensitivity of Park & Ride demand to town and city centre

parking policies 31


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1. Introduction

1.1 Introduction 1.1.1 The report summarises the forecast Park & Ride demand at potential Park &

Ride sites across the TACTRAN area.

1.1.2 Following discussions with Stirling, Dundee City, Angus and Perth & Kinross Councils, a number of potential Park & Ride sites have been identified, serving each urban centre. Strategic bus based Park & Ride sites have also been identified on the basis of existing long distance bus routes.

1.1.3 Three new stations are investigated as part of this Park & Ride study at Dundee West, Bannockburn and Bridge of Earn / Oudenarde. In addition, the case for new rail stations at Dundee West, Bannockburn, Greenloaning and Blackford is expected to be examined as part of a further Tay Estuary Rail Study.

1.1.4 There are a number of existing station locations where parking demand is outstripping the available supply. Of these Dunblane and Bridge of Allan have obvious potential for expanded parking provision. The potential Park & Ride demand at each of these locations has been considered.

1.1.5 A site to the south of the Tay Bridge, within the SEStran region is being addressed as part of a complementary study, however, an initial assessment of demand has been made as part of this work.

1.2 Structure of this document 1.2.1 The Forecasting Methodology is summarised in Chapter 2; Option Generation is

discussed in Chapter 3. Forecast Demands are given in Chapter 4, including both independent and combined / competing assessments. A STAG Type Objectives Appraisal is presented in Chapter 5; Option Sifting is summarised in Chapter 6. Sensitivity testing is discussed in Chapter 7 and a Summary is given in Chapter 8.

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2. Forecasting methodology

2.1 PRIDE 2.1.1 The forecasting tool used for the study is PRIDE. PRIDE is a demand

forecasting model developed by CB specifically for the assessment of Park and Ride schemes. It was developed initially for the 1993 Greater Manchester Park and Ride Methodology Study, jointly funded by the Association of Greater Manchester Authorities and the then Department of Transport. The main inputs to PRIDE are:

car trip demand by origin, destination, time period and/or trip purpose; car journey costs – in-vehicle time, parking search times, parking

charges, and walk times from the car park; journey costs by Park and Ride – access times to the Park and Ride site

by car, walk time at the site, wait time, fare, in-vehicle time, and walk time from the bus stop at the destination;

mode choice parameters. 2.1.2 Figure 2.1 illustrates the overall approach to forecasting Park and Ride

patronage, revenues and costs.


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With free parking

Car trip demand

Paying for parking

Mode choice parameters

PRIDE

Revenue forecasts Operating cost estimates

Patronage forecasts

Business case

P & R service design Frequency Fares Journey times Walk times

Costs by car: Journey time Parking “cost” Walk time

Figure 2.1: Patronage / revenue costs

2.2 Trip demand and costs 2.2.1 The Transport Model for Scotland (TMfS) was previously used to appraise the

Regional Transport Strategy (RTS), including Park and Ride / Park and Choose, and this model has been used to obtain all input matrices, including morning and interpeak:

demand; journey time, and distance matrices.

2.2.2 The availability of free parking is a major constraint on the Park and Ride

market. CB have disaggregated the car trip demand into those who pay for parking and those who enjoy free parking.

2.2.3 Parking search times are related to the ease of parking, which itself is a function of the balance between demand and supply. Walk times from the car parks to destination zones have been estimated from maps and average walking speeds.

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2.3 Costs by Park & Ride 2.3.1 Many of the costs of making a journey by Park & Ride will be a function of the

service design – routes, stop locations, frequency and fares. The scope for serving intermediate destinations en route and allowing boarding at intermediate stops (taking into account potential abstraction from existing services) has been considered for each corridor.

2.3.2 Patronage sensitivity tests have been undertaken based on increased town and city centre parking charges, increased walk times as a result of possible extensions to the controlled parking zone (CPZ) area and bus priority measures.

2.4 Mode choice parameters 2.4.1 Model parameters (modal penalty and spread factor) represent peoples attitude

to mode shift.

2.4.2 The mode penalty represents the immeasurable negative parts of a public transport journey such as reliability, convenience and image. A car journey is given zero mode penalty while public transport is given a positive mode penalty in the form of additional journey time.

2.4.3 For Park & Ride, the spread factor (lambda) can lie anywhere between 0.04 and 0.08. Colin Buchanan are presently undertaking all the transport modelling in relation to Edinburgh Tram and as part of this work, values of lambda have been determined. In the Edinburgh Transport Model (which includes Park & Ride), lambda has been calculated to be 0.06.

2.4.4 Using this value results in modelled levels of demand at Sprinkerse and Broxden which are comparable with observed values. Forecast demand at the proposed new Park & Ride site on the A90, west of the Swallow Roundabout, also compares satisfactorily with the earlier assessment undertaken by MVA.

2.4.5 A modal penalty of 20 minutes has been assumed, which is typical for park and ride schemes. This penalty represents the overall perceived additional cost to Park & Ride users, including peoples resistance to switching mode from the car, and the perceived cost of interchange.

2.5 Forecast patronage 2.5.1 PRIDE forecasts Park & Ride patronage (by origin, destination, time period) for

given sites / locations, demand scenarios and Park & Ride service design. For this study, the assessment years are 2012 and 2022 in accordance with TMfS forecast years.

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3. Option generation

3.1 Option generation 3.1.1 The process of option generation consisted of identifying sites which could be

used as Park & Ride or Park & Choose sites and examining the operational feasibility, deliverability and economic performance of these sites and a STAG type assessment against the study planning objectives.

3.1.2 Best practice indicates that local sites are best located on settlement boundaries. Sites within settlement boundaries tend to be less successful as users often have to cope with traffic congestion on the approaches to them and sites well outside settlement boundaries suffer from longer bus travel times, higher bus running costs and tend to suffer from a perception of lower convenience.

3.1.3 In addition land within settlement boundaries in Dundee, Perth and Stirling is generally designated as protected green space or is already allocated to housing or economic development. Land beyond the settlement boundaries is more readily available but much is designated as being environmentally sensitive. This means that the range of sites available for local Park & Ride or Park & Choose is strictly limited. A site to the south of the Tay Bridge, within the SEStran region has also been identified.

3.1.4 Strategic sites present less of a problem. This is primarily because they would be expected to be smaller but also because they tend to lie in more rural areas with greater areas of land potentially available.

3.1.5 Following discussions with Stirling, Dundee City, Angus and Perth & Kinross Councils a number of potential local sites were identified. In addition, there are a number of existing station locations where parking demand is outstripping the available supply. Of these, Dunblane and Bridge of Allan have obvious potential for expanded parking provision.

3.1.6 Additional strategic sites were identified on the basis of existing long distance bus routes and there are three new stations proposed at Dundee West, Bannockburn and Bridge of Earn / Oudenarde.

3.2 Long list of potential Park & Ride sites 3.2.1 The full list of sites is summarised in Table 3.1 and illustrated in Figures 3.1 to

3.4 on the following pages.

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Table 3.1: Long list of proposed sites

Strategic sites (new or enhanced provision) – see Figure 3.1

R1 Tyndrum / Crianlarich long distance buses R2 Pitlochry long distance buses / trains R3 Forfar long distance buses R4 Brechin long distance buses R5 Proposed Dundee West Station trains / local buses (see D1) R6 Proposed Bridge of Earn / Oudenarde Station trains R7 Proposed Bannockburn Station trains R8 Dunblane Station trains R9 Bridge of Allan trains

Local sites around Dundee – see Figure 3.2

D1 A90 (W) Invergowrie Park & Choose (bus) trains / local buses (see R5) D2 A90 (W) Invergowrie Park & Ride (bus) local buses D3 A90 (W) Dundee Western Gateway local buses D4 A923 Muirhead local buses D5 A90 (N) Inveraldie local buses D6 A90 (N) Fintry local buses D7 A92 (E) Monifieth local buses D9 A92 (S) South of Tay local buses

Local sites around Perth – see Figure 3.3 P1 A9 (NW) Ruthvenfield local buses P2 A85 Huntingtower local buses P3 A9 (N) North of city local buses P4 M90 / A90 (E) local buses P5 M90 / A90 (W) local buses P6 A912 Edinburgh Road local buses

Local sites around Stirling – see Figure 3.4

S1 A91 Corbiewood Stadium local / long distance buses S2 A872 Glasgow Road / Pirnhall Road local / long distance buses S3 M9 / A872 - SE of RB local / long distance buses

3.2.2 The strategic sites are all proposed independently as are the majority of the

local sites. The exceptions to this are as follows:

There is a choice of two possible sites to the north of Dundee – D5 / D6 There is a choice of three possible sites to the west of Dundee – D1 / D2

/ D3. In practice D1 would only be provided in combination with the proposed Dundee West Station and this is not likely to be progressed in the near future. This leaves a realistic choice between D2 and D3.

There are two possible sites to the west / northwest and east of Perth – P1 / P2 and P4 / P5

There is a choice of three possible sites to the south of Stirling – S1 / S2 / S3.

3.2.3 A number of station locations were identified where increases in parking

provision would be advantageous, including Montrose, Arbroath, Perth, Bridge of Allan and Dunblane.

3.2.4 There are sites adjacent to Arbroath and Perth stations on land currently owned by Network Rail which may become available in future. As these sites are owned by Network Rail it is within the rail authorities’ remit to decide on the development of these sites. As such, TACTRAN is liaising with Network Rail regarding how best to take forward car parking proposals where capacity has been identified as an issue.


Figure 3.1: Strategic regional sites

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Figure 3.2: Local sites around Dundee (Note: the precise location of D9 is being considered as part of a complementary study)

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Figure 3.3: Local sites around Perth (Note: the precise location of P6 is to be agreed)

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Figure 3.4: Local sites around Stirling 3.2.5 In addition, a request was made for the consideration of local provision for

Brechin, possibly to encourage visitors to “Pictavia” to continue into the centre. However, as parking in Brechin is free and it would be difficult to park more than ten minutes walk from any destination it is considered that the factors encouraging the use of Park & Ride would be too low to make local provision viable. There is however, no reason why local services passing any strategic site should not stop and provide visitors with the option of a Park & Ride type trip.

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3.3 Service provision 3.3.1 In order to establish the potential patronage of each site, a number of

assumptions have been made as likely bus route and stop locations and these are shown in Figures 3.5 to 3.7. All assumptions have been made in consultation with local bus operators.

3.3.2 Strategic bus and rail station sites are assumed to use existing services. For new rail station sites, the assumption is that all First ScotRail services will call at the station.

3.3.3 With regard to journey times it is assumed that:

new bus public transport journey times assume an average speed of 35 kph;

existing bus public transport journey times are as in published timetables, and similarly;

new rail public transport journey times are as in published timetables.


Figure 3.5: Dundee bus routes and stops for testing 14

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TACTRAN Park & Ride Strategy

Figure 3.6: Perth bus routes and stops for testing

Demand forecasting and option appraisal report


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Figure 3.7: Stirling bus routes and stops for testing

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4. Forecast demand

4.1 Introduction 4.1.1 All sites listed in Section 3 have been tested using PRIDE, CB’s Park & Ride

software to assess the potential demand at each location.

4.2 PRIDE parameters 4.2.1 Key PRIDE parameters are summarised below. As noted previously, the value

of lambda has been derived to be 0.06 with a mode penalty for Park & Ride of 20 minutes.

4.2.2 The following weights on walking on walk, wait and in vehicle time have been applied:

walk time * 2 wait time * 2 in-vehicle time * 1

4.2.3 All TMfS matrices are one hour matrices. The following factors have been

applied to expand the matrices to the full day period:

AM = TMfS AM demand * 2 Interpeak = TMfS IP demand * 5

4.2.4 A general assumption is that Park & Ride demand tails off in the afternoon,

hence, the factor on the interpeak period is 5 hours rather than 7. Similarly, it is assumed that there will be no demand for Park & Ride in the evening period.

4.3 Parking charges 4.3.1 The following morning and interpeak parking charges have been assumed in

Dundee, Perth and Stirling. Future year charges are based on growth in the retail price index (RPI) + 1% per annum, where the RPI growth is assumed to be 2.5% per annum. Parking charges are input to Pride in present year (2008) prices. Table 4.1 below shows parking charges, both in discounted and undiscounted prices.

Table 4.1: Parking charges (pence)

2008 2012in 2012 prices

2012 in 2008 prices

2022 in 2022 prices

2022in 2008 prices

Dundee AM 600 689 624 971 690 IP 220 252 229 356 253 Ninewells 160 184 166 259 184

Perth AM 350 402 364 567 402 IP 130 149 135 210 149

Stirling AM 700 803 728 1133 805 IP 230 264 239 372 264

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4.3.2 It should be noted that there is a wide variation between on and off-street parking charges and between different off-street car parks and the values used represent typical aggregate values, for long stay, variable stay and season tickets.

4.4 Bus fares 4.4.1 Return Park & Ride bus fares at all sites in Dundee, Perth and Stirling have

been assumed to be as shown in Table 4.2 and represent typical values for equivalent services in each town or city.

Table 4.2: Park & Ride bus fare (pence)

2008 2012in 2022 prices

2012 in 2008 prices

2022 in 2022 prices

2022in 2008 prices

Dundee to centre 200 230 208 324 230 to Ninewells* 140 161 146 227 161

Perth to centre 100 115 104 162 115

Stirling to centre 100 115 104 162 115 * from Western Gateway only – otherwise as to centre

4.5 Strategic Park & ride sites 4.5.1 For strategic Park & Ride sites, parking charges have been assumed to be as

above, however, charges in major towns and cities have also been included as shown in Table 4.3.

Table 4.3: Strategic destination parking charges (pence)

2008 2012in 2008 prices

2012 in 2012 prices

2022 in 2008 prices

2022in 2022 prices

Edinburgh AM 1600 1836 1665 2590 1839 IP 400 459 416 647 460

Glasgow AM 1500 1721 1561 2428 1724 IP 500 574 520 809 575

Aberdeen AM 900 1033 936 1457 1035 IP 500 574 520 809 575

Falkirk AM 200 230 208 324 230 IP 120 138 125 194 138

4.5.2 The cost of travel by rail or strategic bus has been calculated from appropriate

First Scotrail and Citylink / Megabus fares. As a large proportion of strategic Park & ride demand is from commuting trips, in the morning period, discounted season ticket fares have been applied where available.

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4.6 Forecast demand – sites assessed independently 4.6.1 A summary of the patronage forecasts is given in Table 4.4. Initially, all sites

have been tested independently of each other or combined only with existing sites to assess the maximum potential demand at each location.

Table 4.4: Long list of sites with estimated peak demands in 2012 and 2022

Vehicles 2012 2022

AM IP total AM IP Total

Strategic sites (new / enhanced) R1 Tyndrum / Crianlarich 1 5 6 2 8 10R2 Pitlochry 0 1 1 0 0 0R3 Forfar 7 7 14 9 6 15R4 Brechin 2 3 5 2 3 5

R5 A90 (W) West of Dundee Park & Choose (rail) 45 103 148 49 120 169

R6 Proposed Bridge of Earn / Oudenarde Station 19 17 36 24 25 49

R7 Proposed Bannockburn Station 85 141 226 92 153 245R8 Dunblane Station 68 125 193 78 143 221R9 Bridge of Allan 73 134 207 84 151 235

Local sites around Dundee

D1 A90 (W) Invergowrie Park & Choose (bus) 74 72 146 121 118 239

D2 / D3*

A90 (W) Invergowrie Park & Ride (bus) / A90 (W) Dundee Western Gateway

80 79 159 91 132 223

D4 A923 Muirhead 20 10 30 22 13 35D5 A90 (N) Inveraldie 13 13 26 17 22 39D6 A90 (N) Fintry 33 27 60 38 39 77D7 A92 (E) Monifieth 105 70 175 98 88 186D9 A92 (S) South of Tay 191 67 258 268 99 367

Local sites around Perth P1 A9 (NW) Ruthvenfield 40 9 49 46 11 57P2 A85 Huntingtower 51 11 62 57 13 70P3 A9 (N) North of city 85 19 104 86 22 108P4 M90 / A90 (E) 113 46 159 120 62 182P5 M90 / A90 (W) 123 51 174 131 68 199P6 A912 Edinburgh Road 66 25 91 79 36 115P7* M90 Broxden 173 55 228 185 73 258

Local sites around Stirling S1 / S2 / S3**

A91 Corbiewood Stadium / A872 Glasgow Road / Pirnhall Road / M9 / A872 - SE of RB

51 19 70 52 25 77

S4* A91 Sprinkerse 112 63 175 116 76 192S5* M9 Kildean 66 43 109 79 54 133Sites shown in bold are existing sites or sites under construction * sites shown in bold font are reference cases ** in terms of PRIDE coding sites D2 and D3 are equivalent as are S1, S2 and S3

4.7 Competing Park & Ride sides / incremental delivery 4.7.1 In Dundee, the nature of the road network means that there is little potential for

competition between Park & Ride sites. However, in Perth and Stirling, where

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the road network provides a good link around the urban area, there is potential for new sites to compete with existing locations, reducing the viability of an existing site.

4.7.2 Demand forecasts have therefore been undertaken where the catchment of each Park & Ride site has been adjusted to reflect the potential impact of the delivery of a new site, as follows:

Perth P7 – M90 Broxden P7 – M90 Broxden + P4 / P5 – M90 / A90 (W) P7 – M90 Broxden + P3 – A9 (N) North of city P7 – M90 Broxden + P3 – A9 (N) North of city + P4 / P5 – M90 / A90 (W)

Stirling S4 – A91 Sprinkerse S4 – A91 Springkerse + S5 – M91 Kildean S4 – A91 Sprinkerse + S5 – M91 Kildean + S1 / S2 / S3 - A91 Corbiewood

Stadium, A872 Glasgow Road / Pirnhall Road, M9 / A872 – SE of RB 4.7.3 Revised demand forecasts for each site are given in Table 4.5.


Table 4.5: Demand forecasts for Broxden, Springkerse and Kildean in combination with other sites

2012 vehicles AM IP

Perth P7 P3 P4/5 Total P7 P3 P4/5 Total P7 M90 Broxden only 173 173 55 55 P7 + P3 M90 Broxden with P3 124 85 209 44 19 63 P7 + P4 / P5 M90 Broxden with P4 / P5 61 123 184 16 51 67 P7 + P3 + P4 / P5 M90 Broxden with P3 and P4 / P5 36 85 123 244 12 19 51 82

Stirling S4 S5 S1/2/3 Total S4 S5 S1/2/3 Total S4 Springkerse only 112 112 63 63

Springkerse with S5 S4 + S5 Kildean with S4 110 66 176 61 43 104

Sprinkerse with S5 and S1 / S2 / S3 S4 + S5 + S1 / S2 / S3 Kildean with S5 and S1 / S2 / S3 78 47 51 176 53 32 19 104

2022 vehicles AM IP

Perth P7 P3 P4/5 Total P7 P3 P4/5 Total P7 M90 Broxden only 185 185 73 73 P7 + P3 M90 Broxden with P3 132 85 217 60 22 82 P7 + P4 / P5 M90 Broxden with P4 / P5 72 131 203 24 65 92 P7 + P3 + P4 / P5 M90 Broxden with P3 and P4 / P5 45 85 131 261 17 22 65 107

Stirling S4 S5 S1/2/3 Total S4 S5 S1/2/3 Total S4 Springkerse only 116 116 76 76

Springkerse with S5 S4 + S5 Kildean with S4 115 79 194 74 54 128

Sprinkerse with S5 and S1 / S2 / S3 S4 + S5 + S1 / S2 / S3 Kildean with S5 and S1 / S2 / S3 87 55 52 194 65 38 25 128

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5. STAG type objectives appraisal

5.1 STAG type objectives appraisal 5.1.1 Each site has been appraised in order to decide which sites to take forward into

the overall strategy. In the assessment of Park & Ride schemes the most important factors are the study objectives, the risk of adverse impacts and the implementability of individual sites and so these are the factors which have been used in this initial appraisal. Appraisal against the strategy objectives uses the Scottish Government’s recommended seven assessment levels. A similar scoring system has been used to assess each site’s implementability and acceptability (Table 5.1).

Table 5.1: Assessment ratings

Score Objectives Abstraction risk Implementability 3 major benefit none no barriers 2 moderate benefit 1 minor benefit 0 no benefit or detriment moderate moderate barriers -1 minor detriment -2 moderate detriment -3 major detriment considerable major barriers

5.1.2 Much of this assessment is based on the patronage estimated by the demand

forecasting process, which is described above, along with assumptions relating to bus / rail services. Sites with the highest forecast patronage will generally address the study objectives most successfully.

5.1.3 The outcome of this initial appraisal is shown in Table 5.2. Sites close together are outlined in groups; it would only be possible to implement one site in each group.


Table 5.2: Option appraisal

R1

Tynd

rum

/ C

rianl

’ch

R2

Pitlo

chry

R

3 Fo

rfar

R4

Bre

chin

R

5 A

90 (W

) Wes

t of

Dun

dee

Par

k &

Cho

ose

(il)

R6

Brid

ge o

f Ear

n /

Oud

enar

de S

tatio

n

R7

Ban

nock

burn

S

tatio

n

R8

Dun

blan

e S

tatio

n

R9

Br.

of A

llan

Sta

tion

D1

A90

(W) I

nver

gow

rie

Par

k &

Cho

ose

(bus

)

D2

A90

(W) I

nver

gow

rie

Par

k &

Rid

e (b

us)

D3

A90

(W) D

unde

e W

este

rn G

atew

ay

D4

A92

3 M

uirh

ead

D5

A90

(N) I

nver

aldi

e D

6 A

90 (N

) Fin

try

D7

A92

(E) M

onifi

eth

D9

A92

(S) S

outh

of

Tay

P1

A9

NW

Rut

hven

field

P

2 A

85 H

untin

gtow

er

P3

A9

(N) N

orth

of c

ity

P4

M90

/ A

90 (E

) P

5 M

90 /

A90

(W)

P6

A91

2 E

dinb

urgh

Rd

S1

A91

Cor

biew

ood

Sta

dium

S2

A87

2 G

lasg

ow R

oad

/ Pirn

hall

Roa

d

S3

M9

/ A87

2 SE

of R

B

To ensure that Park & Ride improves access to town / city centres, and areas of employment, helping to ensure economic growth

0 0 0 0 1 0 3 2 2 1 2 2 0 0 0 2 3 0 0 1 2 2 0 0 0 0

To improve the efficiency and reliability of the transport system through reduced town and city centre traffic levels and associated economic costs

0 0 0 0 1 0 3 2 2 1 2 2 0 0 0 2 3 0 0 1 2 2 0 0 0 0

To improve access to health, leisure and retail facilities by Park & Ride

1 1 1 1 2 1 3 3 3 2 3 3 1 1 1 3 3 1 1 2 3 3 1 1 1 1

To improve the physical accessibility of the transport system through the provision of increased Park & Ride

1 1 1 1 2 1 3 3 3 2 3 3 1 1 1 3 3 1 1 2 3 3 1 1 1 1

To respect the built environment through reducing the need to build new town and city centre car parks

0 0 0 0 1 0 3 3 2 1 2 2 0 0 0 2 3 0 0 1 2 2 0 0 0 0

To help limit / manage travel by private car in urban areas to help meet statutory air quality requirements in the TACTRAN area

0 0 0 0 1 0 3 2 2 1 2 2 0 0 0 2 3 0 0 1 2 2 0 0 0 0

To provide the highest levels of safety and security of passengers and vehicles when using Park & Ride

3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

To ensure Park & Ride facilitates integration and is accessible by all modes of transport

1 1 1 1 2 1 3 3 3 2 3 3 1 1 1 3 3 1 1 2 3 3 1 1 1 1

To ensure integration between land-use planning and provision of public transport

1 0 0 0 3 3 3 1 1 2 2 3 0 0 1 0 1 2 2 3 0 0 1 1 1 1

risk of abstraction from other Park & Ride sites 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 0 0 1 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 risk of abstraction from existing long distance public transport

3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 -1 1 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 2

risk of abstraction from local bus services 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 1 1 1 2 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 2 2 2 Technical implementability 0 0 1 0 1 2 2 3 3 1 1 2 1 0 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 1 2 2 2 Operational implementability 2 2 2 1 2 3 3 3 3 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 2 1 0 2 0 0 1 1 0 0 Financial implementability 0 0 0 0 1 0 3 2 2 1 2 2 -2 -2 -1 2 3 -2 -1 1 2 2 -1 -1 -1 -1 Public acceptablility 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 1 1 2 2 3 0 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 1 1 2 3 3 3 TOTAL SCORE 20 19 20 18 30 24 45 39 39 27 34 38 13 12 17 30 40 13 13 26 26 25 11 15 14 14

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6. Option sifting

6.1 Introduction 6.1.1 Based on the demand forecasting and STAG type appraisal, the following sites

have been taken forward for further assessment.

6.2 Strategic sites 6.2.1 The STAG type appraisal of the strategic bus and rail station sites indicates that

rail station sites score more highly. Site R1 at Tyndrum / Crianlarich is primarily intended as a coach interchange; as a Park & Ride site it attracts little demand and hence scores poorly against the planning objectives. Park & Ride sites at Pitlochry, Forfar and Brechin also generate little demand and score poorly in the STAG appraisal. Given this, sites R1 to R4 have not been considered further as part of this study.

6.2.2 Rail sites R5 West of Dundee and R7 Bannockburn are proposed new rail sites and demand forecasting indicates significant levels of demand. These sites will be taken forward for further development as part of the Tay Estuary Rail Study.

6.2.3 Increased Park & Ride car parking provision may be appropriate at existing rail station sites R8 Dunblane and R9 Bridge of Allan. These sites may be progressed, subject to agreement with First ScotRail and Network Rail.

6.3 Local sites

Dundee

6.3.1 Around Dundee, site D9 South of Tay, scores most highly in both STAG type assessment and demand forecasting and should be taken forward as a priority. Sites to the west of Dundee (D1, D2,D3) and to the east of Dundee (D7 A92 Monifieth) also score well, with similar forecast demands in 2012, but with the sites to the west of Dundee having greater growth in demand by 2022. Therefore, although these sites are taken forward, Dundee west sites are preferred to the east. Site D4 Muirhead generates little Park & Ride and scores relatively poorly against the planning objectives. In particular, this site would be located close to a residential area making it less acceptable than other potential sites. Consequently, this site has not been taken forward as part of this study.

6.3.2 The provision of a Park & Ride site at Inveraldie (D5) would require a major new junction on the A90. In addition, its relative distance from Dundee results in reduced demand and the need to provide additional buses to maintain an appropriate service frequency. The cost associated with these issues mean that site D6 at Fintry is preferred to the north of Dundee, although only after the other proposed sites south, west and east of Dundee have been implemented.

Perth 6.3.3 Around Perth, the existing Broxden site captures demand from a large

catchment given its proximity to the strategic road network. This could result in other P&R sites abstracting journeys from Broxden and most of the proposed P&R sites do this to some extent.

6.3.4 Sites P4 and P5 (M90/A90 (E/W)) have potential to generate the largest demand of the Perth sites considered even though a significant part of this

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demand could abstract patronage from Broxden. Although the corridor route for the bus service from P4/P5 to Perth centre is congested with limited scope for bus priority measures in the short to medium term, it does offer a viable bus route into Perth centre. In addition, in the longer term this route would benefit from the proposed A9 to A94 link road and Tay Crossing as this is forecast to reduce congestion significantly on the bus corridor from P4/P5 to Perth centre and therefore assist in providing a quicker and more reliable bus journey in the future. Of the two sites P4 and P5, P4 is the more favoured as it has more land available for expansion.

For sites that generate a reasonable demand P3 carries the least likelihood of abstraction of trips from Broxden. P3 is desirable because it has good potential to meet the objectives, incorporate bus priority and allow for bus access into currently un-served areas. There is also an opportunity to give consideration to site P3 within an overall land use masterplan for the area near the A9 north of Perth. However, P3 is likely to be a longer term prospect as, in addition to being required to considered as part of the land use Masterplan, it also relies on the A9 junction of the proposed A94 to A9 link road being in place to provide access to the Park and Ride Site.

Given the aforementioned both sites P4 and P3 should be taken forward, with P4 given priority as it has potential to operate successfully in the short to medium term as well as being a longer term beneficiary of the A9 to A94 link road.

6.3.5 Site P6 on the A912 Edinburgh Road in Perth, is attractive to bus operators and the route could be enhanced with new bus priority measures. However, the restricted junction on the M90 limits its catchment to south of Perth only. In addition the site is considered to be too close to the centre of Perth to be attractive for Park & Ride and is not taken forward for further assessment.

6.3.6 Sites P1 and P2 attract relatively low levels of demand and do not score highly against the planning objectives in Table 5.2. Consequently, they have not been taken forward for further assessment.

Stirling 6.3.7 The three potential sites for Stirling are very similar but the a location at the

Corbiewood Statium offers the potential for a bus service into the city centre along a less congested route and is provisionally recommended.

6.3.8 The Kildean site, which is currently being constructed, is not likely to capture much of the existing Springkerse Park & Ride demand as its catchment only overlaps with that of Springkerse in a relatively small area to the south of Stirling. However, much of the demand, particularly at the Springkerse site, appears to come from the south and the introduction of a new Park & Ride site near the Bannockburn interchange will abstract from both sites. It is therefore recommended that the performance of the Springkerse and new Kildean sites should be monitored and only when they are operating close to capacity should a new southern site be pursued.

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6.4 Summary 6.4.1 In summary, the local sites recommended to be taken forward for further

assessment are:

Dundee D1 – A90 (W) Invergowrie Park & Choose (bus) / D2 – A90 (W)

Invergowrie Park & Ride (bus) / D3 – A90 (W) Dundee Western Gateway D6 – A90 (N) Fintry D7 – A92 (E) Monifieth D9 – A92 (S) South of Tay

Perth P3 – A9 (N) North of city P4 – M90 / A90 (E) / P5 – M90 / A90 (W)

Stirling S1 – A91 Corbiewood Stadium / S2 – A872 Glasgow Road / Pirnhall

Road / S3 – M9 / A872 – SE of RB 6.4.2 Around Dundee, sited D3 and D9 are recommended to be pursued first. Of the

sites to the west of Dundee, Site D3 is preferred, although, Sites D1 and D2 are potential alternatives, should potential problems arise in delivering site D3.

6.4.3 Of the sites P4 and P5, P4 is favoured as it has more land available for expansion, but both are worth further consideration should problems arise at P4

6.4.4 In Stirling Site S1 is preferred over S2 and S3 but both are potential alternatives worth further consideration.

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6.4.5 Sensitivity testing

6.5 Parking charges increased by RPI +4% per annum 6.5.1 In order to assess the sensitivity of Park & Ride demand to parking charges,

sensitivity tests were undertaken. Parking charges were increased to a level of Retail Price Index (RPI) growth +4% compared to previous tests where charges were set at RPI growth +1%.

6.5.2 For example, this meant that a charge of £6.24 (Dundee 2012) would increase to £7.02 and that a charge of £6.90 (Dundee 2022) would increase to £10.39.

6.5.3 PRIDE tests were run for the recommended sites, as described in Section 4. Table 7.1 shows the results of this series of tests and the change with respect to previous results with lower parking charges.

Table 7.1: Forecast demand - parking charges at RPI+4% : estimated peak demands in 2012 and 2022 (difference from RPI+1% tests)

Vehicles 2012 2022

AM IP total AM IP total


D1 A90 (W) Invergowrie Park & Choose (bus)

79 (+5)

74 (+2)

153 (+7)

149 (+28)

133 (+15)

282 (+43)

D2 / D3*


86 (+6)

82 (+3)

168 (+9)

117 (+26)

149 (+17)

266 (+43)

D6 A90 (N) Fintry 35 (+2)

28 (+1)

63 (+3)

47 (+9)

44 (+5)

91 (+14)

D7 A92 (E) Monifieth 109 (+4)

72 (+2)

181 (+6)

113 (+15)

97 (+9)

210 (+24)

D9 A92 (S) South of Tay 201 (+10)

69 (+2)

270 (+12)

315 (+47)

109 (+10)

424 (+57)

Local sites around Perth

P3 A9 (N) North of city 87 (+2)

19 (0)

106 (+2)

95 (+9)

23 (+1)

118 (+10)

P4 M90 / A90 (E) 117 (+4)

47 (+1)

164 (+5)

138 (+18)

65 (+3)

203 (+21)

P5 M90 / A90 (W) 128 (+5)

52 (+1)

180 (+6)

150 (+19)

72 (+4)

222 (+23)

Local sites around Stirling S1 / S2 / S3*


57 (+6)

19 (0)

76 (+6)

76 (+24)

30 (+5)

106 (+29)

* in terms of PRIDE coding, sites D2 and D3 are equivalent as are S1, S2 and S3 6.5.4 As expected, increasing parking charges has the effect of increasing Park &

Ride patronage. Site D9 has an increase of 12 trips.

6.5.5 The effect of the increased parking charges is greater in 2022. The maximum change is now an increase of 57 trips at site D9. Most of the increase in trips comes from the morning peak period.

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6.6 Impact of expanded Dundee CPZ 6.6.1 The impact of an expanded Dundee CPZ was modelled by increasing the

average walk time for cars with paid parking to their final destination. The expansion of the CPZ will potentially cover the following areas:

Dundee West End; Dudhope, Hilltown; Princes St, and Invergowrie Drive.

6.6.2 These expansion areas are roughly between 0.1 and 1.0km from the current

CPZ and so we have assumed an average distance of 0.4km. We also assumed a walk speed of 4km/h and therefore assumed an additional 6 minutes walk time.

6.6.3 Walk times have only been increased in the morning peak - it has been assumed that only commuters would have previously parked in the expanded CPZ area. For this reason, interpeak results are identical to the original results. Table 7.2 summarises the results of this test.

Table 7.2: Demand forecasts - increased walk time of 6 min for cars with paid parking: estimated peak demands in 2012 and 2022 (difference from RPI +1% tests)

Vehicles 2012 2022




112 (+38) 72 184

(+38) 173

(+52) 118 291 (+52)

D2 / D3*


122 (+42) 79 201

(+42) 140

(+49) 132 272 (+49)

D6 A90 (N) Fintry 51 (+18) 27 78

(+18) 59

(+21) 39 98 (+21)

D7 A92 (E) Monifieth 146 (+41) 70 216

(+41) 135

(+37) 88 223 (+37)

D9 A92 (S) South of Tay 275 (+84) 67 342

(+84) 364

(+96) 99 463 (+96)

* in terms of PRIDE coding sites D2 and D3 are equivalent 6.6.4 Sites show an increase of between 21 and 96 trips with Site D9 showing the

largest increase.

6.6.5 A test was also completed with both the increase to parking charges and to walk times. The results from this test are shown in Table 7.3.

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Table 7.3: Demand forecasts - increased walk times and parking charges: estimated peak demands in 2012 and 2022 (difference from RPI +1% tests)

Vehicles 2012 2022




120 (+46)

74 (+2)

194 (+48)

207 (+86)

133 (+15)

340 (+101)

D2 / D3*


131 (+51)

82 (+3)

213 (+54)

176 (+85)

149 (+17)

325 (+102)

D6 A90 (N) Fintry 55 (+22)

28 (+1)

83 (+23)

72 (+34)

44 (+5)

116 (+39)

D7 A92 (E) Monifieth 152 (+47)

72 (+2)

224 (+49)

151 (+53)

97 (+9)

248 (+62)

D9 A92 (S) South of Tay 289 (+98)

69 (+2)

358 (+100)

416 (+148)

109 (+10)

525 (+158)

* in terms of PRIDE coding sites D2 and D3 are equivalent 6.6.6 Combining the two measures (increased parking charges and walk times) has a

big impact on the amount of trips at each site. The largest increase is at the D9 site and amounts to 158 extra trips in total in 2022.

6.6.7 From the above, it can be seen that both increasing parking charges and the CPZ coverage has the potential to significantly increase potential Park & Ride demand in Dundee.

6.7 Impact of reduced bus journey times from site D3 6.7.1 The impact of reducing bus journey times was tested for site D3, in combination

with increased parking charges and an expanded CPZ. This was done by reducing the total bus journey time from the park and ride site by 3 minutes. The results are summarised in Table 7.4 below.

Table 7.4: Demand forecasts – reduced bus journey time, increased walk times and parking charges: estimated peak demands in 2012 and 2022 at site D3 (difference from RPI +1% tests)

Vehicles 2012 2022



D2 / D3


153 (+73)

97 (+18)

250 (+91)

199 (+108)

176 (+44)

375 (+152)

6.7.2 There is an estimated total increase of 91 and 152 in patronage for 2012 and

2022 respectively compared with the base RPI +1% test.

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7. Recommendations

7.1 Sites to be taken forward 7.1.1 Rail sites R5 West of Dundee and R7 Bannockburn are proposed new rail sites

and demand forecasting indicates significant levels of demand. These sites will taken forward for further development as part of the Tay Estuary Rail Study.

7.1.2 Increased Park & Ride car parking provision may be appropriate at existing rail station sites R8 Dunblane and R9 Bridge of Allan. These sites may be progressed, subject to agreement with First ScotRail and Network Rail.

7.1.3 Based on forecast patronage and a STAG type appraisal, local sites recommended to be taken forward are:

Dundee D1 – A90 (W) Invergowrie Park & Choose (bus) / D2 – A90 (W)

Invergowrie Park & Ride (bus) / D3 – A90 (W) Dundee Western Gateway D6 – A90 (N) Fintry D7 – A92 (E) Monifieth D9 – A92 (S) South of Tay

Perth P3 – A9 (N) North of city P4 – M90 / A90 (E) / P5 – M90 / A90 (W)

Stirling S1 – Pirnhall Rd / A91 / S2 – A872 Glasgow Road / Pirnhall Road / S3 –

M9 / A872 – SE of RB 7.1.4 Around Dundee, sited D3 and D9 are recommended to be pursued first. Of the

sites to the west of Dundee, Site D3 is preferred, although, Sites D1 and D2 are potential alternatives, should potential problems arise in delivering site D3.

7.1.5 Site P4 / P5 is recommended to be developed first near Perth with P3 to follow. Of the sites P4 and P5, P4 is favoured as it has more land available for expansion.

7.1.6 In Stirling Site S1 is preferred over S2 and S3 but both are potential alternatives worth further consideration.

7.2 Sensitivity of Park & Ride demand to town and city centre parking policies

7.2.1 Estimates of forecast Park & Ride patronage have been made, however, sensitivity testing indicates how sensitive demand is to town and city centre parking policies. Similarly, bus priority measures also help to increase the effectiveness of Park & Ride. Table 8.1 summarises the range of estimated demand, based on:

increased parking charges; extending the CPZ are in Dundee, and providing improved bus priority between the Western Gateway site and

Dundee city centre.

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Table 8.1: Forecast demand – range of potential patronage

Vehicles 2012 2022

Base S1 S2 S3 Base S1 S2 S3


D1 A90 (W) Invergowrie Park & Choose (bus) 146 153 194 239 282 340

D2 / D3*


159 168 213 250 223 266 325 375

D6 A90 (N) Fintry 60 63 83 77 91 116D7 A92 (E) Monifieth 175 181 224 186 210 248D9 A92 (S) South of Tay 258 270 358 367 424 525

Local sites around Perth P3 A9 (N) North of city 104 106 108 118 P4 M90 / A90 (E) 159 164 182 203 P5 M90 / A90 (W) 174 180 199 222

Local sites around Stirling

S1 / S2 / S3*


70 76 77 106

* in terms of PRIDE coding, sites D2 and D3 are equivalent as are S1, S2 and S3 S1 Parking charges at RPI + 4% S2 Parking charges at RPI + 4% + increased CPZ (6min walk time) S3 Parking charges at RPI + 4% + increased CPZ (6min walk time) + increased bus priority

7.2.2 Taking site D3 Dundee Western Gateway as an example, a combination of increased parking charges 4% above the rate of inflation, an expanded city centre CPZ and enhanced bus priority measures have the potential to increase 2012 Park & Ride demand by nearly 60% compared with base forecast values.

7.2.3 In Perth and Stirling, increasing parking charges by RPI +4% has the potential to increase Park & Ride demand by 3% and 10% respectively in 2012, rising to 11% in Perth and 38% in Stirling in 2022.

Documents

TACTRAN Park & Ride Strategy...Demand forecasting and option appraisal report 2.3 Costs by Park & Ride 2.3.1 Many of the costs of making a journey by Park & Ride will be a function