TABLE CONTENTS PART A - International Energy Agency · annexes special focus on natural gas table contents of part a part b part c global energy trends china energy outlook weo_2017_toc_v2.indd

ANNEXES

SPECIAL

FOCUS ON

NATURAL GAS

CO

NTE

NTS

TABL

EO

F

PART

APA

RT B

PART

CGLOBAL

ENERGY

TRENDS

CHINA

ENERGY

OUTLOOK

WEO_2017_ToC_V2.indd 1 23/10/2017 15:27:34

ANNEXES

INTRODUCTION AND SCOPE 1

OVERVIEW 2

ENERGY, EMISSIONS AND UNIVERSAL ACCESS 3

OUTLOOK FOR COAL 5

ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND RENEWABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK 7

OUTLOOK FOR OIL 4

POWER MARKETS AND ELECTRIFICATION 6

THE ENVIRONMENTAL CASE FOR NATURAL GAS 10

NATURAL GAS IN A CHANGING ENERGY WORLD 11

OUTLOOK FOR NATURAL GAS 8

THE NEW GAS ORDER 9

OUTLOOK FOR CHINA’S ENERGY SUPPLY AND INVESTMENT 14

GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS OF ENERGY POLICY REFORMS IN CHINA 15

ENERGY IN CHINA TODAY 12

OUTLOOK FOR CHINA’S ENERGY DEMAND 13

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16 World Energy Outlook 2017

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Foreword 3Acknowledgements 5Executive Summary 23

Part A: Global Energy Trends

Introduction and scope 331.1  The scenarios 341.2  Developing the scenarios 41

1.2.1  Inputs to the modelling 451.2.2  International prices and technology costs 51

Overview 632.1  How much energy does the world need, and where? 642.2  Where now for energy in the United States? 68 2.3   What does China’s “energy revolution” mean for its energy outlook,

and for the world? 722.4  What is the next move for energy-related CO2 emissions? 772.5  How much do energy policies matter? 81 2.6  Are new technologies bringing us closer to universal access to electricity? 852.7  Is natural gas a fuel in good shape for the future? 892.8  Can oil prices stay lower for much longer? 932.9  Is the future switching towards electricity? 982.10  Is offshore energy yesterday’s news or tomorrow’s headlines? 103

Energy, emissions and universal access 1073.1  Introduction 1083.2  Recent trends and developments 1103.3  Trends in the New Policies Scenario 114

3.3.1  Outlook for energy access 1143.3.2  Outlook for energy-related GHG emissions 1173.3.3  Outlook for energy-related air pollution 125

3.4  The Sustainable Development Scenario 1293.4.1  Background 129

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3.4.2  Methodology and key assumptions 1303.4.3  Trends in the Sustainable Development Scenario 136

3.5  What does it take to achieve a faster low-carbon energy transition? 148

Outlook for oil 1534.1  Recent market and policy developments 1544.2  Trends by scenario 155

4.2.1  Market dynamics to 2025 1554.2.2  Long-term scenarios to 2040 156

4.3  A closer look at the New Policies Scenario 1624.3.1  Demand 1624.3.2  Supply 1744.3.3  Refining 1894.3.4  Trade and oil security 1924.3.5  Investment 200

Outlook for coal 2035.1  Recent market and policy developments 2045.2  Trends to 2040 by scenario 205


5.3  A closer look at the New Policies Scenario 2105.3.1  Demand 2105.3.2  Supply 2135.3.3  Regional insights 218

Power markets and electrification 2296.1  Recent market developments 2306.2  Electricity demand 233

6.2.1  Trends to 2040 by scenario 2336.2.2  Electrification: changing sources of growth 2346.2.3  Electricity demand and economic growth 239

6.3  Electricity supply 2406.3.1  Recent policy developments 2406.3.2  Power generation capacity 2446.3.3  Investment 2506.3.4  Electricity generation 256


6.3.5  Fossil-fuel consumption in power 2616.3.6  Power sector CO2 and pollutant emissions 2636.3.7  Technology costs and competitiveness 2666.3.8  Support for renewables-based electricity 2726.3.9  Power generation costs and electricity prices 276

Energy efficiency and renewable energy 2817.1  Introduction 2827.2  Energy efficiency 282

7.2.1  Current status 2827.2.2  Outlook for energy efficiency 285

7.3  Renewables 2957.3.1  Current status 2957.3.2  Outlook for renewables 298

7.4  Some implications 3067.4.1  Investments in renewables and energy efficiency 3077.4.2  The impact of renewables and energy efficiency on import bills 308

7.5  Interlinkages between energy efficiency and renewables 3097.5.1  Demand-side response: a meeting point for energy efficiency

and variable renewables-based electricity 3117.5.2  Efficient supply of clean industrial heat 3177.5.3  Expanding building energy codes to cover renewables 3227.5.4  The multiple benefits of a joint approach 326

Part B: Special Focus on Natural Gas 331

Outlook for natural gas 3338.1  Recent market and policy developments 3348.2  Trends to 2040 by scenario 335


8.3  A closer look at the New Policies Scenario 3398.3.1  Demand 3398.3.2  Supply 3458.3.3  Regional demand and supply insights 3508.3.4  Trade and investment 360

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The new gas order 3679.1  Introduction 3689.2  The US shale storm and its repercussions 370

9.2.1  Production 3709.2.2  Implications for North America 3749.2.3  Implications for global market dynamics 378

9.3  The emergence of a new gas order 3829.3.1  Pricing of gas 3829.3.2  Contracts in gas trade 3869.3.3  Investments and security of supply 3889.3.4  Affordability of gas 3949.3.5  What underpins our New Policies Scenario? 396

The environmental case for natural gas 39910.1  The environmental credentials of natural gas 400

10.1.1  Assessing the environmental credentials of natural gas 40010.2  Methane emissions: how big is the problem? 403

10.2.1  Methane emissions from the energy sector 40610.2.2  Methane emissions from oil and gas operations 407

10.3  Tackling methane emissions 41810.4  Costs and benefits of action on methane emissions 423

10.4.1  Marginal abatement cost curves 42410.4.2  Climate impacts of methane emissions abatement 43110.4.3  Summary of costs and benefits 432

10.5  An agenda for action 433

Natural gas in a changing energy world 43711.1  Introduction 43811.2  Historical perspectives on coal-to-gas switching 43811.3  Natural gas use in the New Policies Scenario 441

11.3.1  Analysis by sector and region 44411.3.2  Limits to the environmental contribution of gas 447

11.4  Natural gas in the Sustainable Development Scenario 44911.4.1  Analysis by sector and region 450

11.5  Trade and investment 46011.6  Decarbonising gas supply 466

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Part C: China Energy Outlook 469

Energy in China today 47112.1  Introducing the special focus on China 47212.2  Energy trends in China today 474

12.2.1  Energy demand 47412.2.2  Focus on energy in China’s regions and provinces 48112.2.3  China and global energy markets 486

12.3  Factors affecting China’s energy development 49112.3.1  Economic transition 49312.3.2  Demographics and urbanisation 49512.3.3  Environment 49612.3.4  Investment 49812.3.5  Energy governance and policies 499

Outlook for China’s energy demand 50713.1  China: shifting gears 50813.2  Overview 509

13.2.1  Trends by fuel 51013.3  End-use sectors 512

13.3.1  Industry 51513.3.2  Transport 52313.3.3  Buildings 530

13.4  Power sector 53813.4.1  Background 53813.4.2  Trends in the New Policies Scenario 54013.4.3  Power sector reforms 545

13.5  Environmental implications 55413.5.1  Energy-related CO2 emissions 55513.5.2  Energy-related air pollution 557

Outlook for China’s energy supply and investment 56114.1  Overview of key supply and investment trends 56214.2  Coal 563

14.2.1  Market structure and regulation 56314.2.2  Outlook for coal 568

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14.3  Oil 57214.3.1  Market structure and reform 57214.3.2  Outlook for oil 57514.3.3  Oil trade and refining 579

14.4  Natural gas 58414.4.1  Market structure and reform 58414.4.2  Gas imports 594

14.5  Renewables 59614.5.1  Bioenergy 59714.5.2  Hydropower 59814.5.3  Solar 59914.5.4  Wind 60014.5.5  Geothermal 602

14.6  Nuclear 60214.7  Investment 603

Global implications of energy policy reforms in China 60715.1  Introduction 60815.2  A recap of key trends in the New Policies Scenario 608

15.2.1  Demand trends 60815.2.2  CO2 emissions trends 61015.2.3  Key milestones reached in the New Policies Scenario 613

15.3  What if the macroeconomic transition is slower? 61315.3.1  Macroeconomic transition in the New Policies Scenario 61315.3.2  Implications of a slower economic transition 61715.3.3  Conclusions 620

15.4  What if the clean energy transition is faster? 62015.4.1  A possible pathway to a cleaner energy sector 62115.4.2  China’s investment needs in the Sustainable

Development Scenario 62715.4.3  Conclusions 628

15.5  Global implications of China’s energy development 62815.5.1  Oil, gas and coal markets 62915.5.2  Low-carbon technologies 636

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Annexes 639Annex A. Tables for scenario projections 641

A.1. Fossil fuel production and demand by region 644A.2. Energy demand, gross electricity generation and electrical capacity,

and carbon-dioxide emissions from fossil fuel combustion by region 648A.3. Global emissions of pollutants by energy sector and fuel 724

Annex B. Policies and measures by scenario 727

Annex C. Definitions 739

Annex D. References 753

World Energy Outlook 201720-I

List of figures


Figures for Chapter 1: Introduction and scope1.1 Global energy-related CO2 emissions 421.2 Change in total primary energy production and demand in IEA

member countries relative to the Middle East, 2005-2015 431.3 Evolution of China policy targets and projections for solar PV installed capacity,

and solar PV levelised costs, in selected WEOs 441.4 Range of prices paid by consumers for final energy, 2015 471.5 Average IEA crude oil import price by scenario and case 541.6 Natural gas prices by key region in the New Policies Scenario 551.7 Steam coal prices by key region in the New Policies Scenario 571.8 Evolution of global average cost for selected technologies

in the New Policies Scenario 60

Figures for Chapter 2: Overview2.1 Modern primary energy demand per capita by scenario 662.2 Share of IEA members and Association countries in world primary energy

demand in the New Policies Scenario 682.3 US oil and gas production in the New Policies Scenario 692.4 Rise in US tight oil to 2025 in the New Policies Scenario 702.5 US net fossil fuel trade by fuel in the New Policies Scenario 712.6 Concentration of PM2.5 in China in the New Policies Scenario 732.7 Contribution of China to change in fossil-fuel demand and low-carbon

generation in the New Policies Scenario, 2016-2040 742.8 China net fossil-fuel trade by fuel in the New Policies Scenario 762.9 World primary energy demand by fuel and energy-related CO2 emissions by

scenario 782.10 Contribution of energy efficiency and renewables to global reductions

in energy-related CO2 emissions by scenario 812.11 Share of variable renewables in power generation in selected regions by

scenario 832.12 Estimated value of global fossil-fuel consumption subsidies 842.13 Population without access to electricity in the New Policies Scenario 862.14 Cumulative population gaining access to electricity in the

New Policies Scenario and the Energy for All Case, 2017-2030 882.15 Growth in natural gas demand by sector and by region in the

New Policies Scenario, 2016-2040 902.16 Global gas trade by mode in the New Policies Scenario 922.17 Change in world oil demand by sector in the New Policies Scenario 952.18 Powertrain cost comparison of conventional and electric cars in selected

regions in the New Policies Scenario, 2025 962.19 Global end-user energy expenditure by fuel and by scenario 992.20 Cumulative global energy investment by scenario, 2017-2040 1002.21 Global offshore production and generation by scenario 1042.22 Average annual offshore energy investment by scenario 105

Table of Contents 20-II

Figures for Chapter 3: Energy, emissions and universal access3.1 People without access to electricity and clean cooking facilities 1103.2 Change in global economic output, energy-related CO2 and air pollutant

emissions 1113.3 Number of people without electricity access by region in the

New Policies Scenario 1153.4 Premature deaths from household air pollution and population lacking

access to clean cooking in the New Policies Scenario 1173.5 Three speeds of CO2 emissions growth in the New Policies Scenario 1183.6 CO2 emissions per capita for selected regions in the New Policies Scenario 1203.7 CO2 emissions from oil use in transport and coal use in power generation

in the New Policies Scenario 1233.8 Annual CO2 emissions growth by sector and by fuel in the

New Policies Scenario 1243.9 Change in air pollutants emissions by region and premature deaths from

outdoor air pollution in the New Policies Scenario, 2015-2040 1253.10 Global energy demand and air pollutant emissions by sector in the

New Policies Scenario 1283.11 Connecting individual policy targets in the Sustainable Development Scenario 1303.12 The Sustainable Development Scenario relative to other recent

decarbonisation scenarios 1343.13 Impacts of the Sustainable Development Scenario relative to the

New Policies Scenario, 2040 1373.14 Shares of population exposed to various PM2.5 concentrations by WHO interim

targets/guidelines in selected regions by scenario 1383.15 Global CO2 emissions reductions in the New Policies and Sustainable

Development Scenarios 1393.16 Air pollutant emissions savings by policy area in the Sustainable Development

Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario, 2040 1403.17 Key indicators for India in the Clean Energy Ambition Case and the

New Policies and Sustainable Development Scenarios 1423.18 Fossil-fuel demand by scenario and decline by sector in the Sustainable

Development Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario, 2040 1453.19 Power generation by source (left) and installed capacity (right) in the

Sustainable Development Scenario, 2040 1463.20 Cumulative investment needs by sector in the New Policies and Sustainable

Development Scenarios, 2017-2040 1473.21 Fossil-fuel import bill savings in importing regions in the Sustainable

Development Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario, 2040 1483.22 Deployment levels of electric cars and solar PV by scenario 1503.23 Additional average annual investment needs and changes in energy demand

in the Faster Transition Scenario relative to the Sustainable Development Scenario 151

Figures for Chapter 4: Outlook for oil4.1 Difference in oil demand by sector in the Low Oil Price Case relative to the

New Policies Scenario 1594.2 Changes in oil production by region in the New Policies Scenario and

Low Oil Price Case 160

World Energy Outlook 2017

4.3 Change in global oil demand by sector in the Sustainable Development Scenario, 2016-2040 161

4.4 Change in global oil demand by sector in the New Policies Scenario 164

4.5 Global road freight fuel demand by vehicle category in the New Policies Scenario 167

4.6 Global GDP, total primary energy demand, CO2 emissions and chemicals demand trajectories in the New Policies Scenario 169

4.7 Change in global oil product demand for petrochemical feedstock in the New Policies Scenario 170

4.8 Potential additional impact of material efficiency improvements on oil demand for plastics production, 2040 172

4.9 Change in global oil product demand in the New Policies Scenario, 2016-2040 174

4.10 Change in non-OPEC and OPEC oil production in the New Policies Scenario 1764.11 Reductions in the capital cost per barrel for developing conventional

oil projects 1804.12 Evolution of average capital cost per barrel for conventional oil projects by

scenario 1814.13 US tight liquids production in the New Policies Scenario 1834.14 Deepwater and ultra-deepwater production by region in the

New Policies Scenario 1854.15 Change in crude oil trade by region in the New Policies Scenario 1924.16 US oil net trade balance in the New Policies Scenario 1944.17 Change in crude export availability in the Middle East in the

New Policies Scenario 1954.18 Asia Pacific crude oil imports and the Middle East’s export availability in

the New Policies Scenario 1964.19 90-days oil demand and stockholding coverage of IEA member countries

in the New Policies Scenario 198

Figures for Chapter 5: Outlook for coal5.1 Global coal demand and share of coal in world primary energy demand by

scenario 2085.2 Average OECD steam coal import price and global coal trade by scenario 2095.3 Incremental coal demand by key sector and region in the

New Policies Scenario 2125.4 Global trade by coal type in the New Policies Scenario 2155.5 Average FOB cash costs for global seaborne steam coal trade and Richard’s

Bay FOB coal price 2175.6 Delivered cost of coal and natural gas to different power systems in the

United States 2195.7 Auction results for solar PV in India 2225.8 FOB cash costs for global seaborne steam coal trade 2245.9 Change in net coal imports by key region in the

New Policies Scenario, 2016-2040 226

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Figures for Chapter 6: Power markets and electrification6.1 Global power generation capacity additions for fossil fuels,

wind power and solar PV 2316.2 Evolution of electricity demand in the three WEO scenarios 2336.3 Annual average growth of final energy demand historically

and in the New Policies Scenario 2356.4 Electricity demand by end-use in the New Policies Scenario 2366.5 Relationship between electricity intensity of the economy and income,

historically and in the New Policies Scenario 2406.6 Installed power generation capacity by type in the New Policies Scenario 2446.7 Share of renewables in total capacity additions by region

in the New Policies Scenario, 2017-2040 2456.8 Global average annual capacity additions and retirements

by technology in the New Policies Scenario, 2017-2040 2466.9 Top-five regions by installed capacity of nuclear power plants in the

New Policies Scenario 2506.10 Global annual average power sector investment and cumulative

investment to 2040 in the New Policies Scenario 2516.11 Average project cost, number of projects and capacity additions historically

and projected in the New Policies Scenario 2536.12 Total electricity generation by region in 2016 and growth to 2040 in the

New Policies Scenario 2586.13 Electricity generation by existing and new power plants by type in the

New Policies Scenario 2596.14 Share of total generation by type worldwide and in selected regions in the

New Policies Scenario 2606.15 Decoupling of global GDP growth and fossil-fuel consumption in electricity

generation in the New Policies Scenario 2616.16 Share of coal consumption by technology in electricity and heat production

in the New Policies Scenario 2626.17 Gas consumption in electricity generation with and without projected

efficiency gains over time in the New Policies Scenario 2636.18 Global power sector CO2 emissions by fuel in the New Policies Scenario 2646.19 Reduction of power sector CO2 emissions in selected countries

in the New Policies Scenario from 2016 to 2040 2656.20 Pollutant emissions in the power sector by fuel with and without enhanced

pollution controls in the New Policies Scenario 2666.21 Historical and projected levelised costs of electricity by selected technology

in the New Policies Scenario 2696.22 Indicative annual costs and revenue needs for batteries and gas GTs in the

United States and European Union, 2030 2726.23 Renewables-based electricity support and cumulative total generation in the

New Policies Scenario 2736.24 Share of supported wind and solar PV generation by mechanism type in the

New Policies Scenario 2756.25 Average power generation costs by region in the New Policies Scenario 2776.26 Average industry electricity prices by region and cost component in the New

Policies Scenario 2786.27 Average household electricity prices by region in the New Policies Scenario 2796.28 End-user energy expenditure in the New Policies Scenario 280

20-IV


Figures for Chapter 7: Energy efficiency and renewable energy7.1 Share of global final energy consumption covered by mandatory efficiency

regulations by sector 2837.2 Global energy intensity reduction by scenario 2857.3 Average annual change in final energy consumption in selected

regions in the New Policies Scenario, 2016-2040 2867.4 Energy intensity and energy use per capita in selected regions in

the New Policies Scenario 2877.5 Avoided final energy demand in 2040 due to energy efficiency policies by

fuel, sector and region in the New Policies Scenario 2897.6 Avoided industrial electricity use in motor systems by region and

measure in the New Policies Scenario, 2040 2917.7 Residential LED stock and lighting electricity demand in the

New Policies Scenario 2947.8 Renewable energy use by sector from a consumer perspective and by region

in the New Policies Scenario 3017.9 Renewable energy use by sector and source in the New Policies Scenario 3027.10 Solar PV and solar thermal rooftop area in the New Policies Scenario 3037.11 Potential sustainable feedstock and requirements to meet biofuels demand

in the New Policies Scenario, 2040 3057.12 Average annual global energy efficiency and renewables investments in the

New Policies Scenario 3087.13 Fossil-fuel net-import bills for selected regions and savings enabled by

energy efficiency and renewables in the New Policies Scenario 3097.14 Examples of technologies contributing to energy efficiency, renewables or

electrification targets 3117.15 DSR potential and generation from variable renewables in the

New Policies and Sustainable Development Scenarios 3137.16 Growth in global industrial heat demand by temperature level in the

New Policies Scenario, 2016-2040 3197.17 Change in global industrial heat supply mix by temperature level by scenario,

2016-2040 3207.18 Floor area in residential buildings and CO2 emissions related to space

conditioning and water heating in the New Policies and Sustainable Development Scenarios 323

7.19 Building energy performance levels in India’s Energy Conservation Building Code (ECBC) 325

7.20 Change in key indicators in the New Policies and Sustainable Development Scenarios in 2040 relative to 2016 326

7.21 Global energy-related CO2 emissions abatement and key contributions in the Sustainable Development Scenario 327

Part B: Special Focus on Natural Gas

Figures for Chapter 8: Outlook for natural gas8.1 Liquefaction capacity currently under construction by key countries and year

of first commercial operation 336

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Table of Contents

8.2 World natural gas demand by scenario 3388.3 Gas demand in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario 3408.4 Key natural gas demand growth centres, additional use in the

New Policies Scenario, 2016-2040 3418.5 Change in gas demand versus price in Germany,

United Kingdom and United States, 1983-2016 3428.6 Annualised growth of global natural gas demand by sector in the

New Policies Scenario 3448.7 Coalbed methane production in selected countries in the New Policies Scenario 3498.8 Russian gas exports by destination and aggregate utilisation of export

capacity in the New Policies Scenario 3518.9 Natural gas balance of the European Union in the New Policies Scenario 3538.10 Change in natural gas production in selected developing countries in the

New Policies Scenario, 2016-2040 3578.11 Change in gas imports by selected region and transport mode in the

New Policies Scenario, 2016-2040 3628.12 Selected global gas trade flows in the New Policies Scenario (bcm) 3638.13 Change in net gas exports by selected region in the New Policies Scenario 3648.14 Evolution of the LNG vessel fleet and the average shipping distance in the

New Policies Scenario 365

Figures for Chapter 9: The new gas order9.1 US gas production by type in the New Policies Scenario 3719.2 Rise in US shale gas output versus the steepest ramp-up in gas production in

the Soviet Union 3729.3 Average costs of resources developed in the New Policies Scenario by year

and average Henry Hub price 3739.4 Indexed production growth of selected chemicals in the United States in the

New Policies Scenario 3759.5 US pipeline gas trade by destination in the New Policies Scenario 3769.6 Indicative well-head breakeven cost of various shale gas plays in North America 3779.7 Selected LNG exports in the New Policies Scenario 3799.8 US LNG net exports by destination and market share in the global LNG

trade in the New Policies Scenario 3809.9 Delivered cost of different sources of gas to Europe and Asia, 2025 3819.10 Market shares in inter-regional gas trade by exporter in WEO-2017 and

the WEO-2016, 2040 3829.11 Global long-distance gas trade by transport mode and pricing method in

the New Policies Scenario 3839.12 Total volume of LNG contracts concluded between 2011 and 2016 by size

and duration 3879.13 Already contracted versus projected global LNG capacity in the

New Policies Scenario 3899.14 Estimated average time to procure an extra 10% of LNG import volumes by

selected importer in the New Policies Scenario 3919.15 Annualised potential to reduce demand for gas by switching to coal in

selected power systems 3929.16 Fuel price evolution in North America and East Asia in the

New Policies Scenario 395

20-VI


Figures for Chapter 10: The environmental case for natural gas10.1 Share of natural gas in total energy-related emissions of selected

air pollutants and CO2, 2015 40110.2 Sources of methane emissions, 2012 40410.3 Scope of methane emissions included in analysis 40910.4 Ratio of measured emission factors to assumed or estimated emission

factors from pre-2014 studies in the United States 41010.5 Reported oil- and gas-related methane emissions for 2005 from the US

Greenhouse Gas Inventory annual reports 41110.6 Measurement studies for various facilities indicating the prevalence of

super-emitting sources 41210.7 Regional and sectoral breakdown of methane emissions from oil and gas

operations, 2015 41410.8 Comparison of recent assessments of global oil- and gas-related methane

emissions 41610.9 Greenhouse-gas emission intensity of natural gas compared with coal 41710.10 Methane emission intensity of oil, gas and coal in the United States 42110.11 Global marginal abatement cost curve for oil and gas methane emissions by

source, 2015 42610.12 Marginal abatement cost curve for oil- and gas-related methane emissions

by region, 2015 42810.13 Oil- and gas-related methane emissions in the

New Policies Scenario with and without abatement measures 42910.14 Oil- and gas-related methane emissions in the Sustainable Development

Scenario with and without abatement measures 430

Figures for Chapter 11: Natural gas in a changing energy world11.1 US electricity generation by fuel and related CO2 emissions 43911.2 Historical fuel consumption shares by sector in the United Kingdom 44011.3 Change in global primary energy demand by scenario, 2016-40 44211.4 Global air pollutant emissions in the New Policies Scenario 44311.5 Average CO2 emissions intensity of electricity generation in selected regions

in the New Policies Scenario 44411.6 Change in industrial energy consumption in China by type in the

New Policies Scenario 44611.7 Global gas consumption in road and maritime transport in the

New Policies Scenario 44611.8 Global primary energy demand in the Sustainable Development Scenario 44911.9 Gas demand by region in the Sustainable Development Scenario 45111.10 Share of coal and gas in energy demand in selected regions in the

Sustainable Development Scenario 45111.11 Gas demand by sector in the Sustainable Development Scenario 45311.12 Natural gas-fired capacity and average utilisation rates in selected regions

in the Sustainable Development Scenario 45311.13 Average CO2 emissions intensity of electricity generation in selected regions

in the Sustainable Development Scenario 45411.14 Average and peak natural gas demand in Japan and the United States by

sector in the Sustainable Development Scenario 458

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11.15 Average and peak natural gas demand in Japan and United States in the Sustainable Development Scenario 460

11.16 Global pipeline and LNG trade by scenario 46111.17 Average annual investment into gas infrastructure by scenario 46211.18 Global gas demand in a “Disjointed Transition Case” 46411.19 Global liquefaction capacity and demand in the New Policies Scenario and

the “Disjointed Transition Case” 465

Part C: China Energy Outlook

Figures for Chapter 12: Energy in China today12.1 Comparisons in average annual growth rates for selected indicators

in China, 2000-2013 versus 2014-2016 47212.2 China’s share of selected global indicators 47312.3 Comparison of China’s primary energy demand by fuel and final consumption

by sector with the rest of the world average, 2016 47412.4 Primary energy demand by fuel in China 47612.5 Annual power generation capacity additions by type in China 47712.6 Power generation mix in China 47812.7 Historical end-user energy expenditure in China 47912.8 Total final energy consumption by sector in China 48012.9 China’s provinces by population density and main regions in 2015 48212.10 Total final energy consumption by sector in China, 2015 48412.11 Total fossil-fuel production in selected countries, 2016 48512.12 Primary energy production and total final energy consumption by fuel

and region in China, 2015 48612.13 Chinese coal imports by source, 2016 48812.14 Refining capacity and demand for oil products in China 48912.15 Solar PV exports from China, 2016 49012.16 Changing structure of the economy in China (share of value added by sector) 49512.17 China energy supply investments 49912.18 China’s national administrative structure for energy 500

Figures for Chapter 13: Outlook for China’s energy demand13.1 Primary energy demand per unit of GDP in selected regions in the

New Policies Scenario 50913.2 Energy demand by fuel in selected end-use sectors in China in the

New Policies Scenario 51513.3 Output of selected industrial products by region in China, 2015 51613.4 Industrial development trajectory and energy intensity in China in a global

context in the New Policies Scenario 51913.5 China industry energy mix and related output by sector in the

New Policies Scenario 52113.6 Impact of a delay in the reduction of steel and cement production on total

energy demand from industry in China, relative to the New Policies Scenario 522

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13.7 Oil demand in China’s transport sector, 2000-2016 52313.8 China energy demand in transport by fuel and mode in the

New Policies Scenario 52613.9 China average annual growth of passenger car fuel use and vehicle stock by

region and EV share in the New Policies Scenario 52713.10 China passenger car ownership in selected provinces and two variations of

future car ownership and oil demand 52813.11 Average energy consumption, number of appliances and floor area per

household in China’s urban and rural areas 53113.12 District heating network by province and share of urban population with

access to natural gas in 2015 53213.13 Indicators for the development of the services sector in China 53313.14 China buildings energy consumption by fuel and end-use

in the New Policies Scenario 53513.15 China buildings heat demand by end-use and fuel in the

New Policies Scenario 53713.16 Installed capacity by technology in China in the New Policies Scenario 54013.17 Electricity generation by fuel in China in the New Policies Scenario 54213.18 Historical and projected levelised cost of electricity by selected technology

in China in the New Policies Scenario 54313.19 Electricity supply costs by component in China in the New Policies Scenario 54413.20 Annual average investment for power plants and networks

in China in the New Policies Scenario 54513.21 Electricity generation mix by province in China, 2016 54713.22 Total generation and curtailment of wind and solar PV in China 54813.23 China electricity generation mix by region and net electricity trade

flows in the New Policies Scenario 55013.24 China hourly generation mix and electricity trade for the Northwest, North,

East and Central regions in 2030 55113.25 China average hourly wholesale energy market prices by region in the

New Policies Scenario, 2040 55413.26 Energy-related CO2 emissions by sector and peak year in China in the

New Policies Scenario 55513.27 CO2 emissions from the power sector in China in the New Policies Scenario 55613.28 Concentration of PM2.5 in China in the New Policies Scenario 55813.29 Emissions by air pollutant and by sector in China in the New Policies Scenario 559

Figures for Chapter 14: Outlook for China’s energy supply and investment14.1 Investments required versus investments actually made in coal mining

in China 56414.2 China domestic coal price evolution 2012-2017 56514.3 China domestic steam coal production cost curve by mine size, 2016 56614.4 Coal industry restructuring: production by selected province

in China and mining capacity in the New Policies Scenario 56714.5 China’s coking coal demand by source and steel output by production route 56914.6 China coal production by mine type in the New Policies Scenario 57014.7 Coal mining productivity in selected countries 571

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14.8 Breakdown of refining capacity in China, end-2016 57314.9 China’s oil production in the New Policies Scenario 57714.10 Required annual investment for China’s oil supply by production level 57814.11 China’s crude oil import volume and associated import bill in the

New Policies Scenario 58014.12 China’s crude oil imports by origin and route 58114.13 Gasoline and diesel demand in China in the New Policies Scenario 58214.14 Trade balance of key refined products in China in the New Policies Scenario 58414.15 Average natural gas import prices and average city-gate benchmark price in

China 58714.16 Natural gas demand in China and production by type in the

New Policies Scenario 59114.17 Indicative production cost ranges for different sources of gas in China, 2025 59314.18 Natural gas imports in China by exporter and transport mode in the

New Policies Scenario 59414.19 Installed power generation capacity in China in the New Policies Scenario 597

Figures for Chapter 15: Global implications of energy policy reforms in China15.1 Change in world primary energy demand by fuel in the New Policies Scenario 60915.2 Energy-related CO2 emissions and per-capita energy-related CO2 emissions

in selected regions in the New Policies Scenario 61115.3 Timeline of major energy milestones for China, historical and projected in

the New Policies Scenario 61215.4 Demand for goods and services in selected sectors in China in the

New Policies Scenario 61415.5 Sectoral value-added contributions to overall economic growth in China,

New Policies Scenario, 2016-2040 61515.6 Share of exports by sector in total Chinese exports in the New Policies Scenario 61615.7 Foregone benefits due to a slower economic and energy transition in China

in the Current Policies Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario, 2040 61915.8 China CO2 emissions in the Sustainable Development and

New Policies Scenarios 62215.9 Concentration of PM2.5 in China in the Sustainable Development Scenario 62315.10 Key indicators of China’s low-carbon transition in the Sustainable

Development Scenario 62515.11 Additional average annual investment needs and change in fossil-fuel import

bills in China in the Sustainable Development Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario 628

15.12 China’s net energy imports and share of global trade by scenario 62915.13 China’s crude oil import by origin in the New Policies Scenario 63115.14 LNG imports and contracted volume by supplier in China in the

New Policies Scenario 63415.15 Natural decline of coal production versus retirement rates for

China’s coal-fired capacity 63515.16 China’s share of cumulative global investment in selected fuels and

technologies in the New Policies Scenario 63715.17 Global CO2 emissions savings from China’s export of solar PV panels and

batteries for electric cars by scenario 638

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Figures for Annex C: DefinitionsC.1 Liquid fuels classification 745C.2 World Energy Outlook main country groupings 749

List of tables


Tables for Chapter 1: Introduction and scope1.1 CO2 price in selected regions by scenario ($2016 per tonne) 481.2 Real GDP growth assumptions by region 491.3 Population assumptions by region 501.4 Fossil-fuel import prices by scenario 52

Tables for Chapter 2: Overview2.1 World primary energy demand by region in the

New Policies Scenario (Mtoe) 652.2 World primary energy demand by fuel and scenario (Mtoe) 792.3 Global energy investment by type and scenario, 2017-2040 ($2016 billion) 101

Tables for Chapter 3: Energy, emissions and universal access3.1 Selected recent climate change and air pollution policy developments 1133.2 Selected climate and clean energy targets from sub-national actors including

cities, states and companies 1223.3 Selected policy priorities to address climate change and reduce air pollutant

emissions in the Sustainable Development Scenario 1333.4 World primary energy demand in the Sustainable Development

Scenario (Mtoe) 144

Tables for Chapter 4: Outlook for oil4.1 Oil and total liquids demand and supply by scenario (mb/d) 1574.2 Oil demand by region in the New Policies Scenario (mb/d) 1634.3 Selected recent initiatives for electric mobility 1654.4 Remaining technically recoverable oil resources by type and region,

end-2016 (billion barrels) 1754.5 World oil supply by type in the New Policies Scenario (mb/d) 1774.6 Non-OPEC oil production in the New Policies Scenario (mb/d) 1864.7 OPEC oil production in the New Policies Scenario (mb/d) 1894.8 World liquids demand in the New Policies Scenario (mb/d) 1904.9 Refining capacity and runs by region in the New Policies Scenario (mb/d) 1914.10 Cumulative oil and gas supply investment by region in the

New Policies Scenario, 2017-2040 ($2016 billion) 201

Tables for Chapter 5: Outlook for coal5.1 World coal demand, production and trade by scenario (Mtce) 2075.2 Coal demand by region in the New Policies Scenario (Mtce) 2115.3 Remaining recoverable coal resources, end-2015 (billion tonnes) 213

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5.4 Coal production by region in the New Policies Scenario (Mtce) 2145.5 Coal trade by region in the New Policies Scenario 216

Tables for Chapter 6: Power markets and electrification6.1 Electricity demand by region and scenario (TWh) 2386.2 Recent developments in regional power sector policies included in the

New Policies Scenario 2416.3 Cumulative power plant capacity retirements by region and source in the

New Policies Scenario, 2017-2040 (GW) 2486.4 Cumulative gross power plant capacity additions by region and source in the

New Policies Scenario, 2017-2040 (GW) 2496.5 Cumulative investment in the power sector by region and type in the

New Policies Scenario, 2017-2040 ($2016 billion) 2526.6 World electricity generation by source and scenario (TWh) 257

Tables for Chapter 7: Energy efficiency and renewable energy7.1 Selected energy efficiency policies announced or introduced since mid-2016 2847.2 Selected renewable energy targets proposed or introduced since mid-2016 2977.3 World renewable energy consumption by scenario 2997.4 Current status of DSR enablers in various electricity markets 3147.5 Realising demand-side response potential 3167.6 Common industrial low- and medium-temperature processes 318


Tables for Chapter 8: Outlook for natural gas8.1 Natural gas demand by region in the New Policies Scenario (bcm) 3398.2 Remaining technically recoverable natural gas resources by type and region,

end-2016 (tcm) 3458.3 Natural gas production by region in the New Policies Scenario (bcm) 3468.4 Natural gas trade by region in the New Policies Scenario 361

Tables for Chapter 10: The environmental case for natural gas10.1 Major voluntary methane emissions reduction initiatives 420

Tables for Chapter 11: Natural gas in a changing energy world11.1 Gas demand by region in the Sustainable Development Scenario relative to

the New Policies Scenario 452


Tables for Chapter 12: Energy in China today12.1 Selected energy and economic indicators for China, 2000-2016 47512.2 Selected indicators for population, GDP, energy use and trade by region and

province in China, 2015 483

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12.3 Selected key energy and environment indicators in China’s 13th Five-Year Plan 49412.4 Main state-owned energy-related enterprises in China 50212.5 Main goals of China’s Energy Production and Consumption Revolution

Strategy, 2016-2030 504

Tables for Chapter 13: Outlook for China’s energy demand

13.1 Primary energy demand by fuel in China in the New Policies Scenario (Mtoe) 51113.2 China final energy demand by sector in the New Policies Scenario (Mtoe) 51313.3 Key elements of the “Made in China 2025” initiative 51413.4 Selected industry-related targets in China’s 13th Five-Year Plan for 2020 51813.5 Selected transport sector policies in China and selected cities 52513.6 Selected policies for buildings in China 53413.7 Key targets of the 13th Five-Year Plan for the power sector 539

Tables for Chapter 14: Outlook for China’s energy supply and investment

14.1 Primary energy production in China in the New Policies Scenario 56214.2 China coal demand, production and net trade in the

New Policies Scenario (Mtce) 56814.3 China oil demand, production and net trade (mb/d) 57614.4 Remaining technically recoverable oil resources by type in China,

end-2016 (billion barrels) 57614.5 China natural gas demand, production and trade in the

New Policies Scenario (bcm) 59014.6 Total installed solar PV capacity by province at year-end 2016 59914.7 Installed wind power capacity by province year-end 2016 60114.8 Investments in energy supply in China in the New Policies Scenario,

2017-40 (billion $2016) 60414.9 Investments in low-carbon technologies in China

in the New Policies Scenario, 2017-2040 (billion $2016) 60514.10 Investments in energy efficiency in China

in the New Policies Scenario, 2017-40 (billion $2016) 606

Tables for Chapter 15: Global implications of energy policy reforms in China

15.1 Major socio-economic trends in China and in developed countries in the New Policies Scenario 614

15.2 Changes in GDP by driver in China in the Current Policies Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario 618

15.3 Performance levels for selected products by sector in China in the Sustainable Development Scenario 621

15.4 China primary energy demand by fuel in the Sustainable Development Scenario (Mtoe) 624

Tables for Annex A: Tables for scenario projections

A.1. Fossil-fuel production and demand by region 644

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A.2. Energy demand, gross electricity generation and electrical capacity,and carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil-fuel combustion by region 648

A.3. Global emissions of pollutants by energy sector and fuel 724

Tables for Annex B: Policies and measures by scenarioB.1 Cross-cutting policy assumptions by scenario for selected regions 728B.2 Power sector policies and measures as modelled by scenario for

selected regions 730B.3 Transport sector policies and measures as modelled by scenario

in selected regions 732B.4 Industry sector policies and measures as modelled by scenario in

selected regions 734B.5 Buildings sector policies and measures as modelled by scenario in

selected regions 736

List of boxes


Boxes for Chapter 1: Introduction and scope1.1 How has the World Energy Outlook evolved since 1977? 351.2 A new way to look at the world of energy 421.3 How might digitalisation affect the future of energy? 58

Boxes for Chapter 2: Overview2.1 The US shale revolution in context 702.2 Air quality in China 732.3 Joining forces: how renewables and energy efficiency can be more than

the sum of their parts 802.4 Fossil-fuel consumption subsidies: power takes the lead2.5 Powering up off the grid 872.6 Does gas still work as a “bridge” in a world of cheap renewables? 932.7 When could electric cars beat conventional cars? 962.8 Are energy projects getting smaller? 1022.9 Is there a chance to join up the offshore dots? 106

Boxes for Chapter 3: Energy, emissions and universal access3.1 Sustainable Development Goals 1093.2 The Montreal Protocol and the Kigali Amendment 1123.3 What’s different in a Sustainable Development Scenario? 1323.4 The Sustainable Development Scenario and the Paris Agreement 134

Boxes for Chapter 4: Outlook for oil4.1 LPG: fuel for cleaner cooking 1624.2 A material opportunity to improve global efficiency 1724.3 Choosing value versus volume 1794.4 Prospects for Canadian oil sands development in the New Policies Scenario 1874.5 Oil security in the Sustainable Development Scenario 199

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Boxes for Chapter 5: Outlook for coal5.1 Coal’s number one competitor in India: the sun 222

Boxes for Chapter 6: Power markets and electrification6.1 Changing policy and market landscape in the United States 2426.2 Will utility-scale batteries replace peaking power plants? 2706.3 Offshore wind and bidding zero 2756.4 The rise of electricity in end-user energy expenditure 279

Boxes for Chapter 7: Energy efficiency and renewable energy7.1 Motor of change for industrial efficiency 2907.2 LEDs: what role for electrification? 2947.3 Relative merits of rooftop solar PV and rooftop solar thermal 3037.4 Is an advanced biofuels revolution feasible with domestic and

sustainable biomass supply? 3057.5 Reaching carbon neutrality in a brewery 3227.6 New building energy codes in India 325


Boxes for Chapter 8: Outlook for natural gas8.1 What happened to the “Golden Age of Gas”? 3378.2 How floating technologies can enable gas market development 358

Boxes for Chapter 9: The new gas order9.1 How the success of US shale may postpone the revolution elsewhere 3789.2 What’s the problem with oil price indexation? 3859.3 The role of aggregators in LNG trading 3909.4 How can Asian consumers benefit from the changes in gas markets? 393

Boxes for Chapter 10: The environmental case for natural gas10.1 Public acceptance of unconventional gas: the “Golden Rules” 40210.2 The pitfalls of global warming potentials (GWP) 40510.3 Methane emissions glossary 40810.4 Super-emitters: what are they and why are they problematic? 41210.5 Selected sources of methane emissions and mitigation options 41810.6 What you can learn from your LDARs 421

Boxes for Chapter 11: Natural gas in a changing energy world11.1 Historical coal-to-gas switching in the United Kingdom 44011.2 The role of natural gas in improving air quality 44211.3 Is CO2 pricing the answer for gas? 44811.4 Can natural gas be a zero-carbon fuel? 468

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Boxes for Chapter 12: Energy in China today12.1 Chinese energy investments abroad 48612.2 Looking back to the future: the China focus in WEO-2007 49212.3 China’s 13th Five-Year Plan 494

Boxes for Chapter 13: Outlook for China’s energy demand13.1 Why does energy demand growth in China slow? 51013.2 I bike, you bike, e-bike 52913.3 Are biomass and coal disappearing from households in China? 53613.4 Regional hourly models with electricity trade 54913.5 Improving the flexibility of coal-fired power plants in China 552

Boxes for Chapter 14: Outlook for China’s energy supply and investment14.1 Road to subsidy reform in China 57414.2 The quest for oil security so far 58014.3 Domestic small-scale liquefaction in China 596

Boxes for Chapter 15: Global implications of energy policy reforms in China15.1 Looking ahead to 2050: establishing China’s 2050 strategy 62615.2 An upside for China’s shale gas would prolong the pain for the global LNG

industry 634

List of spotlights

Part A: Global Energy TrendsWhy doesn’t the IEA have a long-term forecast? 40How can the IEA keep up with global energy demand(s)? 67Which sub-national initiatives can help deliver the low-carbon transition? 121India’s Clean Energy Ambitions – How far from the Sustainable Development Scenario? 141What would it take for oil prices to stay “lower for longer”? 158Can deepwater developments adapt to the new investment climate? 184The expanding role of smaller players in electricity supply 254Tapping DSR potential for variable renewables integration 314

Part B: Special Focus on Natural GasWhat’s the price for gas demand to grow? 342Will Europe become the battlefield of a price war? 384Lifecycle greenhouse-gas emissions: how do gas and coal compare? 416

Part C: China Energy OutlookA trillion dollar question: what are China’s energy consumers spending their money on? 479

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Documents

TABLE CONTENTS PART A - International Energy Agency · annexes special focus on natural gas table contents of part a part b part c global energy trends china energy outlook weo_2017_toc_v2.indd