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Equities
-Our mid-term bullish view is that equity markets haven’t already seen their highs and that the risk/reward ratio sill favours the upside provided by the mid-term uptrend over the risk of a short term correction.-This week overbought conditions and excess optimism were corrected and the risk/return is now good to add long position. For this month, as the Macd daily is still bearish, the main risk for us is to built a trading range (for instance SX5e between 2400 and 2600) not to start a massive sell off.-Our next technical targets for the Stoxx 600 (287,296) are very close to major resistances zone.(slide 2) The S&P 500 (slide 3) has not much resistances until the 2000 and 2007 peaks. (1552-1576).-Around those technical levels, the upward cycle which began in June could be ending because most of the technical targets would have been achieved and equity markets may enter into a more random, erratic period.-MSCI China breakout? (slide 4)
-Bonds&Currencies&Commodities-After a healthy pull-back, the €/$ could rise further above 1.3. (slide 4 )-The (generic) bund future has tested its recent breakdown, we still mid- term bearish waiting for a decisive breakdown of the 139 level for the December contract. (slide 5)Stay bull for the Spanish 10 year, the minimum head and shoulders pattern target is
around 5% (slide 6 )-Gold in € breaks to a new all time high (slide 6 )
2
Stoxx 600 daily and hourly Supports:270, lower part of the bullish channelResistances: 284/285,292/293
Daily chart with weekly Macd
Hourly chart with daily Macd
Holding at support but daily momentum still bearish
3
SP500Supports: upper part of the “small” bullish channel, 1440.Resistances: upper part of the “big” bullish channel, 1550 Daily chart with weekly Macd
Hourly chart with daily Macd
Holding at support but daily momentum still bearish