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T4 - KRIs - Focusing on the Right Risks in Today_s Environment - RiskBusiness Americas (K. Gantt) Experis Finance (T. Diminich) 10-25-11.pdf

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  • Key Risk Indicators focusing on theright risks in todays environmentPresented by:

    Kristen L. Gantt, MD and Tom Diminich, DirectorIntegrated Risk Advisory IT Risk AdvisoryRiskBusiness Americas Experis Finance

  • Why Invest in KRIs?Why Invest in KRIs? What do these significant loss events have in common?

    UBS trade fraud (still under investigation) Societe Generale trade fraud Citibank - privacy breach AIG CDS exposure Madoff ponzi scheme LTCM sudden illiquidity in portfolio Barings concentration

    HINT: Trick question.

    2010-2011 RiskBusiness Americas LLC

    What do these significant loss events have in common? UBS trade fraud (still under investigation) Societe Generale trade fraud Citibank - privacy breach AIG CDS exposure Madoff ponzi scheme LTCM sudden illiquidity in portfolio Barings concentration

    HINT: Trick question.

    ANSWER: After analyzing post-loss & causal factors, they all had a

    good chance of being prevented or detected if Key Risk Indicators

    (KRIs) provided closer to real time information that could be

    aggregated, analyzed, and escalated .

  • Differences in Senior Management Approaches Affected OutcomesDifferences in Senior Management Approaches Affected Outcomesduringduring Financial MarketFinancial Market TurmoilTurmoilAccording to the Senior Supervisors Group Observations on Risk ManagementPractices during the Recent Market Turbulence March 6, 2008, these 4 thingswere done well by the financial institutions that made out OK (relativelyspeaking): IDENTIFIED RISK APPETITE & CONNECTED WITH RISK MITIGATION STRATEGY Thebalance that each firms senior management in general achieved between its desire to do

    business and its appetite for risk as reflected in the tone set for developing or enforcingcontrols on the resulting risks ;

    IDENTIFIED RISK AND TOOK ACTION The role that senior management in particular played inidentifying and understanding material risks and acting on that understanding to mitigateexcessive risks;

    2010-2011 RiskBusiness Americas LLC

    BROKE-THROUGH X-DISCIPLINARY COMMUNICATIONS BARRIERS The breadth and depthof cross-disciplinary discussions and communication of insight into relevant risks acrossthe firm.

    IDENTIFIED RISK AND TOOK ACTION The role that senior management in particular played inidentifying and understanding material risks and acting on that understanding to mitigateexcessive risks;

    BROKE-THROUGH UPWARD CORPORATE COMMUNICATIONS BARRIERS The efforts thatsenior management undertook to surmount organizational structures that tended to delay,divert, or distort the flow of information up the management chain of the firm; and

  • From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia A Key Risk Indicator, also known as a KRI, is a measure used in management to indicatehow: risky an activity is to detect an adverse impact or prevent the possibility of future adverse impact

    (Lagging , Current & Leading KRIs). give us an early warning to identify potential event that may harm continuity of theactivity/project. A KRI differs from a Key Performance Indicator (KPI) in that a KPI is a measure of howwell something is being done AMacro Indicator is an external indicator that is relevant to understanding exposure to riskbased on scenario and data leading to loss. A Common Indicator is an internal indicator relevant to everyone in the organization (e.g.,Customer Complaints, Employee Morale) A Specific Indicator is an internal indicator relevant to risk inherent in Business Unit sOperations & Processes (e.g., number of unmatched trades)

    Key Risk Indicator (KRI)Key Risk Indicator (KRI) DefinitionsDefinitionsSimple Definition A KRI tracks an important exposure and does it well.

    2010-2011 RiskBusiness Americas LLC

    From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia A Key Risk Indicator, also known as a KRI, is a measure used in management to indicatehow: risky an activity is to detect an adverse impact or prevent the possibility of future adverse impact

    (Lagging , Current & Leading KRIs). give us an early warning to identify potential event that may harm continuity of theactivity/project. A KRI differs from a Key Performance Indicator (KPI) in that a KPI is a measure of howwell something is being done AMacro Indicator is an external indicator that is relevant to understanding exposure to riskbased on scenario and data leading to loss. A Common Indicator is an internal indicator relevant to everyone in the organization (e.g.,Customer Complaints, Employee Morale) A Specific Indicator is an internal indicator relevant to risk inherent in Business Unit sOperations & Processes (e.g., number of unmatched trades)

  • IdentifyFactorsAffectingExposureTolerance

    5

    Conceptual: Translating Risk Appetite to Risk Tolerance to KRIsConceptual: Translating Risk Appetite to Risk Tolerance to KRIs

    Corporate & BUStrategic

    Objectives

    Business &Tactical Strategy

    Execution

    Risk Tolerance /Appetite

    Entity Level / Executive Committee Culture Setting Strategic Objectives & Direction Corporate Risk

    Tolerance & Appetite Code of Ethics Corporate Policies

    Management Level Line of Business Limits / Risk Tolerance &Thresholds Divisional Policies Risk Assessment & Response Decisioning Approval Level Setting Organizational Design

    Typical Risk Management Responsibilities in theOrganization

    2010-2011 RiskBusiness Americas LLC

    Monitor,Aggregate,Analyze,

    Report and &DetermineMitigatingAction

    Define theKRI, DevelopMeasurement

    Policy &Specify theThreshold

    5

    Corporate & BUStrategic

    Objectives

    Business &Tactical Strategy

    Execution

    Risk Tolerance /Appetite

    Corporate Risk &Governance

    Programs

    Management Level Line of Business Limits / Risk Tolerance &Thresholds Divisional Policies Risk Assessment & Response Decisioning Approval Level Setting Organizational Design

    Supervisory Level Scenario Level Risk & Control ActivitiesReview Key Risk Indicators Data Validation

    Surveillance Level Quantitative Analysis (VaR, LGD, OpVar) Imbedded Testing Rules-Based or Artificial IntelligenceMonitoring

  • Conceptual: Beginning with Tolerance & AppetiteConceptual: Beginning with Tolerance & Appetite Determine CompanysRisk Tolerance

    Within tolerance, howmuch Risk Appetite both qualitative &quantitative

    Translate Tolerance /Appetite into LOBStrategic Businessobjectives

    Drill down to businessprocesses

    Identify Factors Affecting Exposure ToleranceGenerally, the gap that exists between the level of potential

    liability (loss of $, % share loss, rating loss) as comparedto its ability to access to capital If not taking enoughrisk, may lose out on upside opportunity (look at oppty $)

    Risk ToleranceHow much risk is theorganization able to pay forlosses as a result of risk relatedevents?E..g, Is a 28% loss is stock priceand simultaneous downgrade byMoodys within tolerance? Howlong to recover? Or like Barings /Lehman?

    ($)Risk

    Accessto Capital

    $Oppty

    2010-2011 RiskBusiness Americas LLC

    Determine CompanysRisk Tolerance

    Within tolerance, howmuch Risk Appetite both qualitative &quantitative

    Translate Tolerance /Appetite into LOBStrategic Businessobjectives

    Drill down to businessprocesses

    Risk AppetiteHow much risk is anorganization willing to accept inpursuit of creating value Flipside of performanceE.g., Only reduction in 10% stockprice, or zero tolerance fordiscrimination suits - fight orflight

    Risk ToleranceHow much risk is theorganization able to pay forlosses as a result of risk relatedevents?E..g, Is a 28% loss is stock priceand simultaneous downgrade byMoodys within tolerance? Howlong to recover? Or like Barings /Lehman?Accessto Capital

  • Conceptual: RelatingConceptual: Relating Losses to Risk Management Frameworks to KRIsLosses to Risk Management Frameworks to KRIs

    Internal /External

    Loss(PotentialLiability)Analysis

    1. To Develop Useful KRIthat Detects / PreventsExposure to Liability,one must assess: Loss History (Internal &

    External) Causal Factors Relevant Scenarios Audit & Compliance

    Issues Capital Allocation to BU

    2. Develop Top-down &Bottom-up Inherent /Residual Risk Map pointing to Processes,Risks, & ControlAssessment (Using aCommon language bigadvantage to tie to #1)

    KRI Measurementsborne from intersectionof 1 & 2

    Define KRI, Develop Measurement Policy & Specify theThreshold

    2010-2011 RiskBusiness Americas LLC

    1. To Develop Useful KRIthat Detects / PreventsExposure to Liability,one must assess: Loss History (Internal &

    External) Causal Factors Relevant Scenarios Audit & Compliance

    Issues Capital Allocation to BU

    2. Develop Top-down &Bottom-up Inherent /Residual Risk Map pointing to Processes,Risks, & ControlAssessment (Using aCommon language bigadvantage to tie to #1)

    KRI Measurementsborne from intersectionof 1 & 2

  • Conceptual: RelatingConceptual: Relating Losses to Risk Management Frameworks to KRIsLosses to Risk Management Frameworks to KRIs

    Internal /External

    Loss(PotentialLiability)Analysis

    1. To Develop Useful KRIthat Detects / PreventsExposure to Liability,one must assess: Loss History (Internal &

    External) Causal Factors Relevant Scenarios Audit & Compliance

    Issues Capital Allocation to BU

    2. Develop Top-down &Bottom-up Inherent /Residual Risk Map pointing to Processes,Risks, & ControlAssessment (Using aCommon language bigadvantage to tie to #1)

    KRI Measurementsborne from intersectionof 1 & 2

    Define KRI, Develop Measurement Policy & Specify theThreshold

    TIPS: Determine $ Appetite Threshold for Specific Risk within ControllableBusiness Unit. Determine related processes, risks & controls (and their owners)where breakdown expected to occur AND motivational drivers. Dont underestimate the power of good causal analysis. Identify a value representing existence of measurable condition inprocess (e.g., # & $ Breaks) or In-Effectiveness of Control (e.g., DaysP&L Recs Past Due). Calibrate related Thresholds starting from Red to create AmberAmber &

    Green. Clearly define specific measurement protocol. Thresholds may be set as caps, collars or floors Set these to trigger analert when either touch or exceed. Track KRIs over time to pick up on and document trends. May use scaling math or T-Values for comparability, correlation &composite KRIs. Expect to review KRIs for change as risks & processes change.

    2010-2011 RiskBusiness Americas LLC

    1. To Develop Useful KRIthat Detects / PreventsExposure to Liability,one must assess: Loss History (Internal &

    External) Causal Factors Relevant Scenarios Audit & Compliance

    Issues Capital Allocation to BU

    2. Develop Top-down &Bottom-up Inherent /Residual Risk Map pointing to Processes,Risks, & ControlAssessment (Using aCommon language bigadvantage to tie to #1)

    KRI Measurementsborne from intersectionof 1 & 2

    TIPS: Determine $ Appetite Threshold for Specific Risk within ControllableBusiness Unit. Determine related processes, risks & controls (and their owners)where breakdown expected to occur AND motivational drivers. Dont underestimate the power of good causal analysis. Identify a value representing existence of measurable condition inprocess (e.g., # & $ Breaks) or In-Effectiveness of Control (e.g., DaysP&L Recs Past Due). Calibrate related Thresholds starting from Red to create AmberAmber &

    Green. Clearly define specific measurement protocol. Thresholds may be set as caps, collars or floors Set these to trigger analert when either touch or exceed. Track KRIs over time to pick up on and document trends. May use scaling math or T-Values for comparability, correlation &composite KRIs. Expect to review KRIs for change as risks & processes change.

  • Core Drivers Clouds Triggers Risk Events

    Workload

    IndividualCapability

    Aggressive Sales

    Misunderstanding

    Sales/ RevenueTargets

    ResourcingLevels

    HRPractices

    OversightManagement

    Conceptual: Understanding CausesConceptual: Understanding Causes inin Scenarios and Relating to KRIsScenarios and Relating to KRIs

    2010-2011 RiskBusiness Americas LLC

    TeamFunction

    TaskDifficulty

    SeismicVulnerability

    Goofs

    Miscommunication

    Seismic Event

    ProcessComplexity

    Training

    HRPractices

    External /Seismic

    ProductComplexity

    ExecutionErrors

    KRIs

    HR

    LoB

    Mg

    mt

    Lord

  • Conceptual: Operationalizing KRI ProgramConceptual: Operationalizing KRI Program Start with KRI Policies,MeasurementSpecifications,Thresholds

    Determine Providers& Consumers ofMetrics

    Determine Tools /ResourceRequirements forAggregation &Analytics

    Execute Data AnalyticsImplementation

    Test Results,Usefulness & Actions

    Monitor Against Threshold, Aggregate, Analyze,Report and & Determine Mitigating Action

    Elements of a KRI Policy Include: Definition

    KRI Name Description of What is Being Measured Type of KRI (leading, lagging, etc.) Causal Types Driving KRI Rationale Risk Being Mitigated Driving KRI Rationale Version # & Release date of KRI

    Specifications Threshold Metric Definitions & Escalation Procedures Measurement Methodology / Data collection & validation procedures Data Source(s) Application / Data Provider(s)

    Links to Metadata & Centralized Referential Data Libraries Organizational Unit Process, Risk & Control Type Geographic Location Product Type(s) Financial Statement Line Item Other

    2010-2011 RiskBusiness Americas LLC

    Start with KRI Policies,MeasurementSpecifications,Thresholds

    Determine Providers& Consumers ofMetrics

    Determine Tools /ResourceRequirements forAggregation &Analytics

    Execute Data AnalyticsImplementation

    Test Results,Usefulness & Actions

    Elements of a KRI Policy Include: Definition

    KRI Name Description of What is Being Measured Type of KRI (leading, lagging, etc.) Causal Types Driving KRI Rationale Risk Being Mitigated Driving KRI Rationale Version # & Release date of KRI

    Specifications Threshold Metric Definitions & Escalation Procedures Measurement Methodology / Data collection & validation procedures Data Source(s) Application / Data Provider(s)

    Links to Metadata & Centralized Referential Data Libraries Organizational Unit Process, Risk & Control Type Geographic Location Product Type(s) Financial Statement Line Item Other

  • Operationalize KRIMeasurement &

    Monitoring

    Evaluate existing technologyfor monitoring / workflowcapabilities & determineplatform;

    Determine providers (inputs)and consumers (outputs) ofindividual KRI metrics;

    Configure platform with KRIpolicies based onorganizational hierarchy linkto risk taxonomy;

    Design data inputmechanisms (e.g., Manual,API);

    Determine and configurereporting parameters; and

    Test the process (inputs,function, outputs) vs. goals

    Post ImplementationUse Test Validation

    Review the programobjectives are working asintended through objectivereview;

    Validate results of KRIinformation to managementactions

    Track management actionsare managed throughappropriate prioritization &budget allocation

    Conceptual: Operationalizing KRI ProgramConceptual: Operationalizing KRI Program

    2010-2011 RiskBusiness Americas LLC

    Evaluate existing technologyfor monitoring / workflowcapabilities & determineplatform;

    Determine providers (inputs)and consumers (outputs) ofindividual KRI metrics;

    Configure platform with KRIpolicies based onorganizational hierarchy linkto risk taxonomy;

    Design data inputmechanisms (e.g., Manual,API);

    Determine and configurereporting parameters; and

    Test the process (inputs,function, outputs) vs. goals

    Review the programobjectives are working asintended through objectivereview;

    Validate results of KRIinformation to managementactions

    Track management actionsare managed throughappropriate prioritization &budget allocation

    Del

    iver

    able

    s

    Fully functioning workflowaround measuring,monitoring, and respondingto KRI feedback loop;Accompanying firm-widepolicies & procedures D

    eliv

    erab

    les

    Management Reports &Presentation to RiskCommittees

  • Operationalize KRIMeasurement &

    Monitoring

    Evaluate existing technologyfor monitoring / workflowcapabilities & determineplatform;

    Determine providers (inputs)and consumers (outputs) ofindividual KRI metrics;

    Configure platform with KRIpolicies based onorganizational hierarchy linkto risk taxonomy;

    Design data inputmechanisms (e.g., Manual,API);

    Determine and configurereporting parameters; and

    Test the process (inputs,function, outputs) vs. goals

    Post ImplementationUse Test Validation

    Review the programobjectives are working asintended through objectivereview;

    Validate results of KRIinformation to managementactions

    Track management actionsare managed throughappropriate prioritization &budget allocation

    Conceptual: Operationalizing KRI ProgramConceptual: Operationalizing KRI ProgramBefore starting, these are key To Dos:

    Define Organizational Topography: Lines of Business, BusinessUnits, Cross-Functional Units Establish C-Level Buy-In Pre-Plan Communication Structures (i.e., not used forcompensation, discussed through Risk Management) Determine Appropriate Level of Resources are Available toImplement a Reliable KRI Development Process Develop an Implementation Plan e.g., Targeting a Pilot Areawith Biggest Expected Return for Time Spent

    Use Test - At the end of the day, KRIs should: Prompt Timely Management Risk Response (Documented) Be Consistent Comparable with other business units/lines ofbusiness (Apples : Apples) Be Relevant Ties to risk tolerance / appetite Be Transparent Easily understood in common businesslanguage function Be Complete Data validation to ensure accurate / complete

    2010-2011 RiskBusiness Americas LLC

    Evaluate existing technologyfor monitoring / workflowcapabilities & determineplatform;

    Determine providers (inputs)and consumers (outputs) ofindividual KRI metrics;

    Configure platform with KRIpolicies based onorganizational hierarchy linkto risk taxonomy;

    Design data inputmechanisms (e.g., Manual,API);

    Determine and configurereporting parameters; and

    Test the process (inputs,function, outputs) vs. goals

    Review the programobjectives are working asintended through objectivereview;

    Validate results of KRIinformation to managementactions

    Track management actionsare managed throughappropriate prioritization &budget allocation

    Del

    iver

    able

    s

    Fully functioning workflowaround measuring,monitoring, and respondingto KRI feedback loop;Accompanying firm-widepolicies & procedures D

    eliv

    erab

    les

    Management Reports &Presentation to RiskCommittees

    Before starting, these are key To Dos: Define Organizational Topography: Lines of Business, BusinessUnits, Cross-Functional Units Establish C-Level Buy-In Pre-Plan Communication Structures (i.e., not used forcompensation, discussed through Risk Management) Determine Appropriate Level of Resources are Available toImplement a Reliable KRI Development Process Develop an Implementation Plan e.g., Targeting a Pilot Areawith Biggest Expected Return for Time Spent

    Use Test - At the end of the day, KRIs should: Prompt Timely Management Risk Response (Documented) Be Consistent Comparable with other business units/lines ofbusiness (Apples : Apples) Be Relevant Ties to risk tolerance / appetite Be Transparent Easily understood in common businesslanguage function Be Complete Data validation to ensure accurate / complete

  • Conceptual: TodaysConceptual: Todays KRI Reporting has Become more VisualKRI Reporting has Become more Visual

    2010-2011 RiskBusiness Americas LLC

  • Practical Examples

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  • 1. What Are the Worst Losses/Near Misses Over the Past10 Years Caused in this Business Unit? YourCompetitors Units? (95 99% CL)

    2. What Would be the Level of Loss I Could Tolerate vis--vis my Business Unit Strategic Plan? [Specify theThreshold]

    3. How Often Would I Need to Monitor the RiskIndicators & To Whom Would I Escalate to TakeAction in Enough Time to Mitigate Loss? [Monitor theThreshold]

    4. What Common Language & Technology Platforms canI Leverage to Build a Sustainable KRI Program?

    Developing Key Risk IndicatorsDeveloping Key Risk IndicatorsIdentifyFactors

    AffectingExposureTolerance

    4 Key Questions - Summary

    2010-2011 RiskBusiness Americas LLC

    1. What Are the Worst Losses/Near Misses Over the Past10 Years Caused in this Business Unit? YourCompetitors Units? (95 99% CL)

    2. What Would be the Level of Loss I Could Tolerate vis--vis my Business Unit Strategic Plan? [Specify theThreshold]

    3. How Often Would I Need to Monitor the RiskIndicators & To Whom Would I Escalate to TakeAction in Enough Time to Mitigate Loss? [Monitor theThreshold]

    4. What Common Language & Technology Platforms canI Leverage to Build a Sustainable KRI Program?

    Specify KRI &Threshold

    Monitor theKRI Threshold

  • Simple AnalogySimple Analogy Progression from Tolerance to KRIProgression from Tolerance to KRIPROGRESSION FROM TOLERANCE toKRI:

    TOLERANCE Must achieve top 5 place to enter Worlds;otherwise, reputation risk and total loss of sponsor funding

    APPETITE Must achieve 1st through 3rd place to sustainquality financial sponsorship & strong reputation

    THRESHOLD History shows boat speed trumps boat toboat tactics focus on closing boat speed gap.

    CAUSES Reasons for slow boat speed = crew weightplacement , sail design & trim Most variable? Weight &trim

    KRI POLICY SUGGESTIONS Boat Speed?

    Set up 7 KRI Tell Tails in Luff of Sail at differentheights (wind velocity & direction varies at heights).

    Trimmer (Risk Mgr) Evaluates direction of streamingat different levels AGGREGATED view, will showboat is operating slower than expected or at optimalspeed

    ACTION if SLOWER Trimmer immediately adjusts sailsor escalates to skipper to change point of sail Continuous communication.

    2010-2011 RiskBusiness Americas LLC

    PROGRESSION FROM TOLERANCE toKRI:

    TOLERANCE Must achieve top 5 place to enter Worlds;otherwise, reputation risk and total loss of sponsor funding

    APPETITE Must achieve 1st through 3rd place to sustainquality financial sponsorship & strong reputation

    THRESHOLD History shows boat speed trumps boat toboat tactics focus on closing boat speed gap.

    CAUSES Reasons for slow boat speed = crew weightplacement , sail design & trim Most variable? Weight &trim

    KRI POLICY SUGGESTIONS Boat Speed?

    Set up 7 KRI Tell Tails in Luff of Sail at differentheights (wind velocity & direction varies at heights).

    Trimmer (Risk Mgr) Evaluates direction of streamingat different levels AGGREGATED view, will showboat is operating slower than expected or at optimalspeed

    ACTION if SLOWER Trimmer immediately adjusts sailsor escalates to skipper to change point of sail Continuous communication.

  • Relevant CaseRelevant Case Progression from Tolerance to KRIProgression from Tolerance to KRISignificant Loss through Trader Fraud: IMPACT - $2.3 BN in losses, stock plummeted 28%

    and severe company reputation damage and potentialMoodys downgrade. Arrest 2 counts accounting / 1count misuse of position

    PROFILE - Single Trader at Delta-One Desk (EFT)with computer science education & experience in backoffice. Believe it started by made a bad trade in 2008and trying to make it back and covering it since.

    METHOD - Significant speculative long positions inEFTs made, which were not covered leaving company100% exposed to market risk

    Fictitious covered trades in DAX, Euro Stoxx, and S&P500 same trades since 2008 closed & then reopened

    Was able to hide the fake hedge trades as OTCsettlement is over 3 days, or longer (systemic risk offragmentation in Euro clearing market)

    Also, two-way confirmations not always sent out bycompany, or expected back by some EU banks onthese type trades

    UNCOVERED: Fake trades set to roll-over,perpetrator no longer able to cover extreme losses wrote confessional email.

    - IndexUniverse Sept 19, 2011

    TOLERANCE to KRI: TOLERANCE Examples: 10% drop in stock

    price, drop in revenue by 10% or more, capitalincreases to cover loss exposure by more than5%

    APPETITE Upper limit of capacity for lossesbased on targeted forecasted revenues & capitallevels the firm seeks to attain

    THRESHOLD Difference between riskexposures and risk appetite used to set limits ineach appetite category

    CAUSES Both internal and external /systemic

    Confirmations not set out, or expected inreturn for EFT Trades

    Taking advantage of longer than usualclearing & settlement in EU

    Not sure if Mgmt overseeing Grosspositions in Delta-One desk; andexpected margin requirements relatedfee postings

    KRI POLICY SUGGESTIONS?

    2010-2011 RiskBusiness Americas LLC

    Significant Loss through Trader Fraud: IMPACT - $2.3 BN in losses, stock plummeted 28%

    and severe company reputation damage and potentialMoodys downgrade. Arrest 2 counts accounting / 1count misuse of position

    PROFILE - Single Trader at Delta-One Desk (EFT)with computer science education & experience in backoffice. Believe it started by made a bad trade in 2008and trying to make it back and covering it since.

    METHOD - Significant speculative long positions inEFTs made, which were not covered leaving company100% exposed to market risk

    Fictitious covered trades in DAX, Euro Stoxx, and S&P500 same trades since 2008 closed & then reopened

    Was able to hide the fake hedge trades as OTCsettlement is over 3 days, or longer (systemic risk offragmentation in Euro clearing market)

    Also, two-way confirmations not always sent out bycompany, or expected back by some EU banks onthese type trades

    UNCOVERED: Fake trades set to roll-over,perpetrator no longer able to cover extreme losses wrote confessional email.

    - IndexUniverse Sept 19, 2011

    TOLERANCE to KRI: TOLERANCE Examples: 10% drop in stock

    price, drop in revenue by 10% or more, capitalincreases to cover loss exposure by more than5%

    APPETITE Upper limit of capacity for lossesbased on targeted forecasted revenues & capitallevels the firm seeks to attain

    THRESHOLD Difference between riskexposures and risk appetite used to set limits ineach appetite category

    CAUSES Both internal and external /systemic

    Confirmations not set out, or expected inreturn for EFT Trades

    Taking advantage of longer than usualclearing & settlement in EU

    Not sure if Mgmt overseeing Grosspositions in Delta-One desk; andexpected margin requirements relatedfee postings

    KRI POLICY SUGGESTIONS?

  • CAUSALDRIVERS

    BreakdownDue to:

    LOSS EVENTTYPES:

    InternalFraud

    ExternalFraud

    EmploymentPractice &WorkplaceSafety

    Clients,Products andBusinessPractices

    BusinessDisruption &Failure

    Damage toPhysicalAssets

    Execution,Delivery &ProcessMgmt.

    Strategy n/a n/a Loss of KeyPeople w/oSuccessionPlanning

    Product DesignTied toInadequateMarket Liquidity

    Dept. BCP PlanDoes not Workw/Firm-WidePlan

    Selection ofBusinesslocation proneto damage

    AggregateTrading LimitsAre Exceeded /Trade PartnerSelection Risky

    Management Abuse ofSigningAuthority

    n/a Under-DocumentedTerminationProcess

    Poor OversightOverApplication ofComplianceRules

    Not ProvidingEmployees withBCP Training

    n/a Trade orMargin Feesnot Collected orAccounted for /Gross Positionsnot Monitored

    KRIs In Action: Risk Mapping to Causal Factors (the old Due toKRIs In Action: Risk Mapping to Causal Factors (the old Due toStatements)Statements)Business Unit #1 Inherent Risk Analysis: Equities Derivatives

    2010-2011 RiskBusiness Americas LLC

    Poor OversightOverApplication ofComplianceRules

    Trade orMargin Feesnot Collected orAccounted for /Gross Positionsnot Monitored

    Conduct EmployeeCover-upPoorPerformanceor Error

    n/a SexualHarassment /Comp PlanEncouragesRisky Conduct

    Traderelationshipestablished w aninappropriatecounterparty notin interest of thefirm

    Unintentionallack ofknowledge tocarry out BCP

    Intentionaldestruction ortheft ofcompanyproperty

    Negligence inEmployeePerformance inCarrying OutDuties

    Processes ConflictingDuties s/u inOrganization

    FraudulentTrade PartnerDocuments

    n/a CustomerIdentification /KYC Notproperlyperformed

    Procedures forBCP not Clearly/ AccuratelyCommunicated

    n/a TradePolicies/Procedures Unclear /Confirms notReceived

    Technology LogicalAccessSecurityBreach

    FirewallSecurity Lax

    n/a Corporate CreditApplicationUnder-Functions

    Systems will notRecover withinRequired Time

    Data isCorrupted

    System toSystemtransmissionerror

    ExternalFactors

    n/a DamagingViruses beingIntroduced inCyber Attacks

    n/a MassiveDefaults inCorporateCredits in US

    OutsourceVendors Fail inthe event of aDisaster

    Fire, Flood Clearing FirmParties DeferSettlement

  • CAUSALDRIVERS

    BreakdownDue to:

    LOSS EVENTTYPES:

    InternalFraud

    ExternalFraud

    EmploymentPractice &WorkplaceSafety

    Clients,Products andBusinessPractices

    BusinessDisruption &Failure

    Damage toPhysicalAssets

    Execution,Delivery &ProcessMgmt.

    Strategy n/a n/a Loss of KeyPeople w/oSuccessionPlanning

    Product DesignTied toInadequateMarket Liquidity

    Dept. BCP PlanDoes not Workw/Firm-WidePlan

    Selection ofBusinesslocation proneto damage

    AggregateTrading LimitsAre Exceeded /Trade PartnerSelection Risky

    Management Abuse ofSigningAuthority

    n/a Under-DocumentedTerminationProcess

    Poor OversightOverApplication ofComplianceRules

    Not ProvidingEmployees withBCP Training

    n/a Trade orMargin Feesnot Collected orAccounted for /Gross Positionsnot Monitored

    KRIs In Action: Risk Mapping to Causal Factors (the old Due toKRIs In Action: Risk Mapping to Causal Factors (the old Due toStatements)Statements)Business Unit #1 Inherent Risk Analysis: Equities Derivatives

    KRIMeasurement: # Gross

    TradesExceedingSetThreshold

    Daily Trade

    Supervisor /Risk Mgr

    2010-2011 RiskBusiness Americas LLC

    Poor OversightOverApplication ofComplianceRules

    Trade orMargin Feesnot Collected orAccounted for /Gross Positionsnot Monitored

    Conduct EmployeeCover-upPoorPerformanceor Error

    n/a SexualHarassment /Comp PlanEncouragesRisky Conduct

    Bad IB dealmade not ininterest of thefirm

    Unintentionallack ofknowledge tocarry out BCP

    Intentionaldestruction ortheft ofcompanyproperty

    Negligence inEmployeePerformance inCarrying OutDuties

    Process ConflictingDuties s/u inOrganization

    FraudulentTrade PartnerDocuments

    n/a CustomerIdentification /KYC Notproperlyperformed

    Procedures forBCP not Clearly/ AccuratelyCommunicated

    n/a TradePolicies/Procedures Unclear /Confirms notReceived byTrade Partner

    Technology LogicalAccessSecurityBreach

    FirewallSecurity Lax

    n/a Corporate CreditApplicationUnder-Functions

    Systems will notRecover withinRequired Time

    Data isCorrupted

    System toSystemtransmissionerror

    ExternalFactors

    n/a DamagingViruses beingIntroduced inCyber Attacks

    n/a MassiveDefaults inCorporateCredits in US

    OutsourceVendors Fail inthe event of aDisaster

    Fire, Flood Clearing FirmPartiesDeferredSettlement

    KRIMeasurement:

    # DisabledUserIDs /passwordresets

    Periodic(daily?)

    InformationSecurity Officer

    KRIMeasurement: # Gross

    TradesExceedingSetThreshold

    Daily Trade

    Supervisor /Risk Mgr

    KRIMeasurement: # / $ Open

    3pty OTCConfirms w-no Cash Flow

    Weekly Report to

    Desk RiskMgr

  • Aggregating KRIsAggregating KRIsPrivate Wealth Mgmt (LOB)

    Securities Operations(Back Office)

    EquityDerivatives

    (FrontOffice)

    Fixed Income (FrontOffice)

    Requires Common Language for Process, Risk Event Types, ControlTypes, and Causal Factors / Drivers & Data Aggregation Platform

    Institutional Securities (LOB)

    2010-2011 RiskBusiness Americas LLC

    EquityDerivatives

    (FrontOffice)

  • If youre looking for the Top10 Best Firm-Wide KRIs, Save Your Energy ! Risk / exposures change continually What may be best are risk scores (CustomerSatisfaction/Technology Service/Employee Satisfaction) Strive for Consistency Across Organization (e.g., Scalability, etc.) overQuantity It takes time to think about the comparability of the KRIs Calculating Correlation of KRIs with Actual Losses to Validate is a goodexercise but dont expect results will justify doing KRIs - Time better spentmay be correlation to other KRIs. Once implemented, KRIs work immediately so loss historycollected may not be robust enough to Think about joining KRI Exchange or otherConsortium. Ensuring KRIs tie directly to Risk Event / Loss Categories Focus on the pivottable concept that all roads lead back to measuring / monitoring against defined losscategories Dont make it too difficult/costly to obtain the information or to validate theinformation gathered It will soon be dropped.

    Any Lessons Learned?Any Lessons Learned?

    2010-2011 RiskBusiness Americas LLC

    If youre looking for the Top10 Best Firm-Wide KRIs, Save Your Energy ! Risk / exposures change continually What may be best are risk scores (CustomerSatisfaction/Technology Service/Employee Satisfaction) Strive for Consistency Across Organization (e.g., Scalability, etc.) overQuantity It takes time to think about the comparability of the KRIs Calculating Correlation of KRIs with Actual Losses to Validate is a goodexercise but dont expect results will justify doing KRIs - Time better spentmay be correlation to other KRIs. Once implemented, KRIs work immediately so loss historycollected may not be robust enough to Think about joining KRI Exchange or otherConsortium. Ensuring KRIs tie directly to Risk Event / Loss Categories Focus on the pivottable concept that all roads lead back to measuring / monitoring against defined losscategories Dont make it too difficult/costly to obtain the information or to validate theinformation gathered It will soon be dropped.

  • Thank You!

    Contact:Tom DiminichDirector, IT Risk Advisory ServicesExperis Finance

    Direct: (212) [email protected]

    Kristen L. Gantt CPAManaging DirectorRiskBusiness Americas(a Madison-Davis & RiskBusiness International Company)

    Direct: (212) [email protected]

    2010-2011 RiskBusiness Americas LLC

    Thank You!

    Contact:Tom DiminichDirector, IT Risk Advisory ServicesExperis Finance

    Direct: (212) [email protected]

    Kristen L. Gantt CPAManaging DirectorRiskBusiness Americas(a Madison-Davis & RiskBusiness International Company)

    Direct: (212) [email protected]